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- [00:00]
A
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B
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C
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D
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E
I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome to the to the Contrary Podcast. Well, look at the headlines today. Donald Trump once again siding with Russia, betraying Ukraine. How many times have we been through this? Apparently, there is a new Christmas deadline which gives Vladimir Putin more time to kill as many Ukrainians as possible. The Europeans are still reeling from that foreign policy paper that essentially threw them under the bus, under the boat. Donald Trump also handed China, China a massive gift when he approved the sale of these very, very powerful AI chips that a lot of people in the national security world thought like, what the hell are you talking about? Meanwhile, the president is still struggling with affordability. He can't decide whether or not that's a real problem, whether it's a con job and whether we should worry about it since he gives himself an A.
- [03:28]
Grade on economy. And while all of this is going on, Paramount has launched a hostile bid of Warner Brothers with Jared Kushner, the president's son in law, and his Saudi backers. So remember all those conservatives who are all upset about Al Jazeera. You know, this was the terror network. Surprisingly quiet now that Qatar apparently is part of the bid for the company that owns CNN. And meanwhile, we are all waiting on the U.S. supreme Court to do God knows what. So buckle up.
- [04:12]
Hey, there's a lot going on and our guest today, and this is a first time appearance, it is good to see you. Rachel Bade, longtime veteran reporter for Politico who has now joined the sunny uplands of Substack. So, first of all, thanks for joining me, Rachel.
- [04:27]
C
Thanks for having me on. Charlie, any pointers for me on the Substack life?
- [04:32]
E
I do. I have many. It is a hungry beast and you have to feed it. If you have not yet seen it, if you had not yet subscribed. Rachel's newsletter is the Inner Circle with Rachel Bait and the podcast is the Huddle. So I don't know, where do you want to start here? Should we talk about the president going to Pennsylvania with his message on unaffordability?
- [05:01]
You know, Republicans are really sweating this, aren't they? I mean, they're looking at the poll numbers. They're realizing and I don't know, Donald Trump seems to have some cognitive dissonance. Right. It's either a con job or I'm going to fix it. And how do you fix it when you say that everything is, is perfect and this is the hottest economy in the world? So just give me your take on how the affordability issue is playing out and what you're hearing on the Hill.
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C
Yeah, I mean, Republicans are freaking out about this. I mean, There is a sense that the midterms is going to. They're going to hinge on this issue in particular, that the party hasn't done enough to bring down prices and that the messaging is kind of all over the place. One of the substacks, the newsletters I sent last week, I led with this notion that the number one question amongst Republican operatives that week over the weekend was who was going to tell the President to stop calling affordability a hoax. Sure enough, his inner circle has sort of talked to him about this. They've showed him polling and Republicans will say they understand what he means. Right. Like he's saying that, you know, prices went up more under Democrats and now they're trying to blame me. And this sort of takes time to sort of write the course, correct the economy, but, like, it doesn't come up. It hasn't been coming out that way, Charlie, as you know.
- [06:17]
E
No, no, it has not.
- [06:18]
C
And Democrats are seizing on that and will seize on that in the midter. Look, I think what he did yesterday is a probably good first step. Most Republicans feel like it's a good first step because he did two things. Number one, he just went out there and he went through all of his accomplishments. It doesn't hurt to remind people over and over again that you have checked off most of your campaign promises and to be sure whether you like him or not. He absolutely has. Whether it comes to immigration, whether it comes to crime, like, there's just a bunch of things that he has done dei.
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E
He's given it to us good and hard. Yeah. No, he did what he said he was going to do.
- [06:55]
C
Right. And that is not. Those are not the issues that are going to sort of drive the midterms, but remind people what you're doing. Number number one. Number two, present the case of bringing out.
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E
That sounds like same old, same old, by the way.
- [07:07]
C
Well, he had. But here's the thing, Charlie. He's been abroad. He's been abroad. He hasn't been talking like this. We haven't seen Donald Trump do this in a really long time. I think the last campaign rally was like, on the campaign trail. And he needs to use the bully pulpit to remind people what he has done. He just does.
- [07:25]
E
Yeah, but what is he going to do on the affordable. The thing is, I mean, okay, so on affordability, as far as, like, did he even talk about healthcare? I mean, you have people in Pennsylvania about to be hamilled. Yeah, he talks about what he's doing a little.
- [07:40]
C
That's a really good question. Because there has been this split in the Republican Party. It's like the coalitions on this are really interested on healthcare. But you have the MAGA base, some leaders in the MAGA movement who are joining with more moderate Republicans who are saying, the president needs to lean in on this, he needs to extend the subsidies. We need to plug our nose and swallow. Yes, we all hate Obamacare, but people cannot see their premiums go up at a time when affordability is the number one issue for Americans, according to the polls. Right.
- [08:10]
E
But does he have a plan? Does he have a concept? I mean, I was looking at, I think it was a substack newsletter from Connor Lamb, the former congressman, and he says, you know, one of the big stories in Pennsylvania are the number of people that are just dropping out of Obamacare, going uninsured because they cannot afford. You have this sticker shock, and then you have Donald Trump basically going through, playing his greatest hits, telling everybody how wonderful he is. But I'm guessing that people are going, all right, but what are you going to do? And as you're pointing out, it's kind of a Rubik's Cube, right? I mean, because here we are coming to the end of the year, and the Republicans don't seem to have gotten any kind of a coherent alternative, do they? Or do they have a secret plan that we're gonna find out?
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C
Well, two points on this. One is it's a messaging problem, and it's also a substance problem, as you point out. I think the first thing Republicans have been trying to do with the president is try to get him on the right messaging that they think will resonate with people. And that is they want to see more of him saying, I feel your pain. Yes, certain things are getting better, but it's not there yet. And the problem is, psychologically, he just can't admit that that is true. Right. It's hard for him to acknowledge that it's a real problem. But that's just the messaging piece. Now you're talking about substance, Right?
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E
Right.
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C
Substance is a whole nother issue. Right. I mean, I have talked to senior Republicans who have said to me in the new year, we're going to pivot to affordability and we're going to be laser focused on it. And I'm like, okay, what does that look like? And there's not an answer. Right. They don't have an answer on healthcare. They do not have an answer on additional things to bring down prices. They're gonna have to figure this out, because it is the Achilles heel for them in the midterms right now.
- [09:55]
E
So when I mentioned cognitive dissonance, I'm having some flashbacks, actually, to the Biden years where people were talking about, we need to have more messaging on infl. Problem was, it wasn't all just the messaging. It was the lived reality. And so there you have Donald Trump saying, you know, I'm getting a. I get an A. Everything is fine with the hottest economy. And then people go into the grocery store and they look at their bills, you know, and, you know, the reality is, is that, you know, it's up by 25% since, you know, 2020. It's not all his fault, but it is a real problem. So you have the lived reality. And so I guess this is one of those moments. I know that Donald Trump believes in the bespoke reality, that he feels he can bend truth and make people believe anything he wants. So he's basically challenging people. Listen to me, believe me. Not what you're seeing on your grocery bill. Not what you're seeing when you look at your bank account. And that didn't work for Joe Biden, and at least the polls would suggest it's not working for him right now because people are getting hit. And so that's the. And I know that that's kind of the. What is the messaging on all this? The messaging is he. You know, people look at the reality, they're not listening to what you're saying all the time.
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C
Yeah. I mean, people know what their bank accounts say. They know that when they're going to the grocery store, they're foregoing buying bacon because it's too expensive or, you know, that they don't go out to eat anymore because a dinner for, you know, two is like 60 bucks, you know, at a very most basic restaurant. Yeah, yeah. So it's. I mean, and this is what. And this is what. You know, there's a concern. The concern is that he not fall into this trap that former President Joe Biden was in. Right. This notion of things are transient. Was that the word transient?
- [11:43]
E
Yeah, I think so.
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C
Transitory.
- [11:44]
E
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, he's the one transitory.
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C
That inflation is transitory. Just ignore it. It's going to go away, et cetera.
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E
That was a terrible line, of course.
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C
Huge, huge, terrible line. But the message right now is also like, be patient. It's gonna get better early next year.
- [12:01]
E
That's the same thing, though.
- [12:02]
C
Yeah, it kind of sounds similar. So, yeah, I mean, it's a tricky issue, and I think you're starting to see that too. And you're seeing the frustration also start to boil over, right? I mean, Republicans coming out and taking shots at the Speaker. I can tell you that privately they are. There are Republicans, like, taking shots at the White House, like, hardcore right now. Like, I was talking to someone just a couple days ago, and again, it's on background, it's not on the record, but, like, the fact that they're like, the president hasn't been. He's not been using the bully pulpit. He's not like, doing enough. Like, people are venting. And so it's. You can start. Just. The point is, like, the meltdown is starting to happen here. So.
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E
Okay, I want to come back to that. You know, one of the things about, you know, Trump's handling of this issue is it does feel. And you, and you mentioned that he, you know, used to do these rallies, used to be out there. He used to have, I think, a pretty good. I've described it as a sort of a reptilian political instinct about, you know, what, what plays. It does feel like he has put himself in a bubble because he does sound tone deaf. And one of the reasons has been that he's kind of playing at president and he's hanging around with people who don't worry about their grocery bills. He seems much more interested in the foreign trips, the foreign stuff, dealing with, you know, his fellow oligarchs and everything. And so the populist message really seems to be buried under a lot of the things that he's more interested in at the moment. Is that part of the concern? Because, you know, the people who are sitting around dinner table at Mar A Lago are not talking about the price of bacon or eggs.
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C
Right, Right.
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E
I mean, so he is in a world where, you know, the only time he hears about this issue is when someone hands him a paper with some poll numbers on it. So part of the tone def.
- [13:51]
C
Yeah, perhaps. I think there is a recognition even amongst people close to him that all the focus on foreign travel and solving world peace, great. But if Americans are still hurting, you have a real problem here. And I mean, there was a time in recent months where you look at the President's agenda and it's always so and so, head of state, so and so prime minister coming in. It was like, those are the people that are coming in.
- [14:21]
E
And.
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C
And meanwhile, you have people who are still hurting. And so there was a discussion about this. I mean, the President said during a speech last night that Suzy Wiles came to him and was like, it's time to Campaign again. It's time to get out there and start talking to the states. And yesterday was supposed to be the first of multiple stops that he's going to be making in the next few months to sort of, again, talk about what he's done, try to hit that better tone that they're trying to push him to hit.
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E
Good luck with that.
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C
Affordability. Good luck with that. But you're right. I mean, like, when you call groceries a quaint term. Remember how he calls groceries a quaint term? I don't understand that. I'm like, groceries is a term I use multiple times a week, trying to get groceries, like with a toddler and working a million hours a day. And then the other things he says, like, be satisfied. And he said this last night, too. Be satisfied with two dolls instead of 30. The American people should be satisfied with having two dolls instead of 30. Little girl, you know.
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E
Yes. Fewer pencils, too.
- [15:22]
C
Yeah. Not exactly the greatest of messaging.
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E
So let's go back to this point that you're making, because this is really fascinating, this meltdown and panic that you're talking about here now. You know, for the last 10 years, we've had these people off the record, you know, being critical. You know, what's different now? I mean, you're seeing. I mean, obviously you're seeing this open revolt from some Republicans, including the Republican women. Is it all driven by fear of the midterms? Is it reaction against the hubris of the White House? Just give me a sense of what the mood is when you talk about this meltdown. Even the off the record meltdown.
- [16:03]
C
Yeah, I think. Well, for each member that has gone public, I would say their concerns are sort of different. Like, everybody has their own parochial issues.
- [16:14]
But you cannot underscore how rare it is to see members of House Republican leadership taking shots at each other. Elise Stefanik from New York has been in leadership for a long time. She's a team player. Like, I've covered her for years. Like, her taking a shot at another Republican, let alone the speaker of the House, shows you something's very, very wrong. And she said, you know, it wasn't at the President, by the way, it was at Johnson. And it was like, you know, he wouldn't win again if he's speaker. The president doesn't need him. He's a political novice. And it shows, like, really, like, sharp language. And look, I just, I think there's a sense on Capitol Hill that people are. They're hearing from their constituents. They know they're not happy, and they Feel like they can't do anything about it because they don't have power or they feel like they don't have power.
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As one, you know, Republican campaign operative told me over the weekend, the sense is like rudderless. That's the word.
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E
Heat. Yeah.
- [17:17]
C
They don't have a message. They don't. They want to pass more bills. They can. Since their majority is slipping away. They're frustrated at Johnson for some of the decisions he's made, whether it's on, you know, the Epstein situation, banning stock trading for members or keeping the House out for like two months during the shutdown, which a lot of people thought was just terror, like a terrible optics thing. And so, yeah, I mean, it's definitely reached a new height. I mean, lawmakers are often unhappy. Charlie. You know, this, like, it's, yes, it's, there's a top down approach.
- [17:53]
E
A lot of time on their hands to be unhappy. Right. I mean, they, they, they, they, they sit around and they can be unhappy, right?
- [17:58]
C
Yes. But even now it is, it's reached.
- [18:01]
E
New levels, which makes me wonder, you know, some of the women are going, hey, we're not being treated with respect here. We're not really being, you know, given, given the, the deference that, that we feel, that we have, we have earned. And it's like, wait, wait, wait, what did you expect? First of all, you signed up for a movement headed by Donald Trump. And now Mike Johnson, who basically hasn't updated his views on gender since, I don't know, like 1678. Why would they be surprised now? Except that they kind of hear the footsteps of the midterm elections. Is there anything else going on there that has just been building up for some time and it's like, hey, we could actually like now lose, so screw it.
- [18:37]
C
Yeah. I mean, I think with Republican women on the Hill.
- [18:44]
Even absent the position the party is in right now, facing down this difficult midterm election, they've been sort of in decline in the past few years. I mean, when I first started covering Congress, I feel like there were like half a dozen Republican women who were chairs. Now there's one often there's this sort of, they wouldn't call it a glass ceiling, but it certainly feels like a glass ceiling. And that, you know, the highest position you can get to in the House is Republican conference chair, which is more of a messaging piece than anything else. But look, these Republican women, the interesting thing to me is even as they have sort of felt, some of them have felt this for a while, it's kind of Counterproductive for them in their own party to talk about it in this way. Right. Like, if they're being perceived as saying, I'm treated differently because I'm a woman or using the gender card in any way, it actually, it has a reverse effect. Right. And they get a blowback from that. And so that has traditionally been the case.
- [19:47]
But that seems to have changed. Like, frustrations have reached a point where you have this New York Times story where all these Republican women are going on background and venting about Mike Johnson. And again, what you were just saying, that's Donald Trump. That's pretty telling though, isn't that?
- [20:03]
E
Yeah, of course. He's an easy joke.
- [20:06]
C
For all the talk about the President losing Jews or political capital, a lot of this stuff is still on background. And the people that are coming out and talking, they're not taking shots at the President, they've taken shots at the Speaker. With the exception of Marjorie Taylor Greene, who is a, who's on her own little, her own next level, of course.
- [20:23]
E
Actually, as you mentioned, I mean, everybody's sort of on their own little planet here. We gotta mention Elise Stefanik, who had been very much a team player, also very much wanted to be UN Ambassador, which is a high profile cabinet position. She was prepared to move on, become Ambassador Stefanik, and Trump and Johnson cut her off at the knees. They decided that they wanted her in Congress instead. Now, obviously she was extremely angry about that. And my guess is she didn't just become angry about that. She's been really, really angry and now venting against Johnson. But I mean, Trump also did that. I mean, Trump was the guy, he was the appointing agency. So.
- [21:01]
C
Yes, yes. Yeah, no, I would say Stefanik is definitely one of the most, probably the most. I think I wrote this screwed over lawmaker in Washington right now was in leadership. She stepped away from her leadership position, away from a very prized House Intelligence Committee position, to take on the position of Ambassador to the United Nations. Johnson complains to Trump that he can't lose people like her because the margin is so slim. So that nomination is revoked after she has already, all of her staff has left. She's ready to move to New York, whatever, and, and then she has to go back on the Hill at a time when people like Mark Green, who is alleged to have a extramarital relationship with a lobbyist, resigns and takes like a cushy job, like. So, yeah, she's pissed. The reason she's not. The reason she's not taking, you know, shots at the President is Because she's, she's thinking long term here. Number one, she's running for governor of New York and like his endorsement, his support be very big for her and the President does like her. But number two, that's gonna be a difficult election for her after if she, you know, she loses, which she probably will. It's gonna be hard for her to win in New York. Just realistically, she could have a position in the cabinet at some other point.
- [22:18]
E
Sure.
- [22:19]
C
So I would put my money on her in the cabinet in a couple of years, like. So she's not gonna take the shots at Trump himself.
- [22:27]
E
Yeah. I wanna get to the pardons in just a moment. But I mean going through this, this revolt and again, everybody has seem separate story, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene, lots and lots of issues. Clearly the Epstein vote was a breaking point. And then you have people like Nancy Mace, who I'm so. I don't know how to ask this question in a diplomatic way. Nancy Mace seems to be going through something. I mean, it's, you know, there's a lot of stress, there's a lot of strain, a lot of people's brains have been broken, A lot of people who have nervous breakdown. This seems like she is just losing her shit in public on a daily basis. I mean, I mean, I read the stories about her and I go, basically I don't even want to talk about her because except for right now because clearly she's not well, I mean, what is going on? Do you know Nancy Mace? Do you know what's happening to her? What's going through, what she's going through?
- [23:22]
C
I don't know her well, of course, I would say your concerns voiced there are shared by other Republicans privately, again, not publicly. I think there is a sense that this is sort of an attention economy and so even negative attention can be good in some people's respects. Or this could be how she's thinking of things. But then there's some stuff that, that's percolating that, you know, she didn't like. She did not necessarily want out there. Like the whole confront confrontation with security at the airport and like yelling at them and screaming at them and then Republicans from her state saying, like, we don't treat people like this. I don't know. A lot of times with Mace, I feel like she's chasing the headline here and that she wants the headline and it's not always a good thing for her, obviously. Yeah.
- [24:19]
E
I mean, what is the phrase? You know, there's method to her madness. I think there's A little madness to her method.
- [24:25]
C
Okay, one last thought on Mace.
- [24:26]
E
I'm sorry, go ahead.
- [24:27]
C
Here's a good example. Like that New York Times story about Republican women being frustrated. One of the biggest nuggets in there was this notion of she's gonna, she's so pissed off that she's gonna meet with Marjorie Taylor Greene next week and she's thinking about resigning. Right. Like, I'm sure the reporter checked in with her on that. Like, I don't know for a fact, but like, you don't just stick something like that in there without like, you know, talking to the person and reaching out for comment. And there was like no pushback from her from a while. And then all of a sudden she's hearing from people, you know, if you resign, like, you're going to lose your gubernatorial bid, like, that's it for you. Forget running for governor ever. We're going to disown you. And then she starts to come out and say, absolutely not. The media, like, you know, the reporter taking this out of context, all this stuff, I don't know, it seems like very short sighted.
- [25:15]
E
Yeah. Okay, so this may be, you know, a B level story, a C level story, but I find it absolutely fascinating. And you wrote about it earlier this week, Donald Trump has been throwing out these pardons to basically any corrupt politician that he likes or oligarch or crypto. The Washington Post had an, I thought, awfully interesting story about all of the drug dealers that he has pardoned. So if Donald Trump likes you, you get a get out of jail free card. If you are not, if you are not MAGA adjacent, he's gonna blow you out of the water. I don't know. But, but the one that was most interesting was.
- [25:57]
The pardon of a Democratic member of Congress, Henry Cuellar, from a potential swing seat down in Texas. So let's talk about this because first of all, you know, he pardons Cuellar, you know, gives him a complete, you know, you know, you know, you know, wipes away the investigation. And then Cuellar announces that he's running for reelection as a Democrat and.
- [26:25]
Not switching parties, not stepping down. Republicans freak out, and then Trump freaks out, attacking him, you know, saying, you know, no loyalty next time, no more Mr. Nice Guys. So talk to me about how what the hell is going on there? Because it was such a naked moment where it was clear, I am pardoning you as a political quid pro quo and I expect you now to be politically loyal. And the Dems are jumping all over this. So this is kind of it feels like a sideshow, but very revealing sideshow.
- [26:57]
C
Yeah, I certainly thought so when I was watching the traffic on this over the weekend. Basically Democrats saying this was a Freudian slip for the President and that he couldn't help himself. He came out and attacked Cuellar saying he was not loyal and that just sort of like the follow up question is clear, like, what did you expect? And clearly you expected something. Now, I don't know exactly what the President expected. I have asked people about this and it's not clear if he expected cueire to just not run again, which would make his seat help Republicans pick up that seat in Texas, which is a seat they really very much want as they try to keep the majority, or if he was hoping he would switch parties. Cuellar is a very centrist Democrat. In fact, he's kind of loathed by a lot of members of his own party because he, you know, his tough stance on border.
- [27:54]
White House officials will not sort of admit. They won't. Like I have not heard anybody say, oh, we expected X, Y and Z. But clearly the president did because he's out there saying, like, by filing as a Democrat, he's showing a lack of loyalty. And naturally the question becomes like, well, number one, what did you expect? And if you did expect something, did you expect something from other pardons you've made? And I think, I think that this issue could be. I'm really interested to see, like, if Democrats flip the House, like, what are the things they're going to investigate? This is one of them. Right? The pardon thing is one of them. The company piece, you know, companies kissing ass is another one. It's just going to be, we're going to hear all about this and the behind the scenes of what was expected and what was promised.
- [28:40]
E
Yeah, if they get the gavels, they're going to be very, very, very busy. But I thought that was interesting. And of course, you know, I don't want to get too deep in the weeds of redistricting because there's so much going on. But a lot of the assumption behind the Texas Republicans redrawing those lines was that they were going to continue to get, you know, impressive numbers of Latinos crossing over and voting for Republicans. That seems like a more of a questionable assumption given, given what's been happening, the floor dropping out under. Under Republicans and the president among young voters, among independent voters, and really very notably among Latino voters.
- [29:16]
C
Yeah, absolutely. The Hispanic population in Texas, like, they're gonna determine like everything next year. And so people are. And people wanna Know, like, are they gonna. They were with the president before, like, but they're clearly appealing. No, I think when it comes to Texas, like, they're. There are a lot of Republicans questioning this whole redistricting effort, like, why did we do it? We spent so much capital on it, and could it blow back on us? Because, yes, yes, they could pick up these five additional seats. Right. But they could also, like, make some of their members very vulnerable. And if you look at the numbers when it comes to, like, special elections, since the 2024 presidential election, the average swing is something like 13 points in favor of Democrats. If that holds. I haven't looked at the numbers, but if that holds in Texas, like, say goodbye to those five extra seats.
- [30:07]
E
Yeah. So you do have any thoughts about Jasmine Crockett getting into the Democratic race for Senate and.
- [30:15]
Pushing out other candidates?
- [30:18]
C
Yeah, I find it so fascinating. Like, the left is so ascendant right now. I mean, once upon a time, national Democrats, like the leadership here in Washington would call up someone and say, we don't think you can win in a general, so sit down. Because if you run in a primary, you're gonna hurt our candidate. That didn't happen here. And there isn't anybody in Washington sort of telling Democrats this. And that is because if they do, number one, progressives don't listen. But number two, they actually might use it to help fuel their campaign even more, their primary bid even more. And so, I mean, look, Crockett getting in, I think is just going to jazz up the right man. I mean, like, I just think, like we talk about. Democrats always talk about when will Texas turn blue? When is that going to happen? Will it happen? It seems very, very unlikely. If she's the nominee.
- [31:18]
E
Yeah. And that was one kind of the shock because it looked like Republicans might serve up that seat. I mean, if Ken Paxton beats John Cornyn in the Republican primary, I mean, this guy. To say that he's got baggage is putting it mildly. I mean, he may be the one Republican who might have been knocked off had there been a more electable Democratic candidate. I mean, obviously there's still a primary. A lot of things can happen, but it is, you know, it feels like another marker in the sort of the end of political parties, the end of establishment. You know, we talk about the Democratic establishment. There really is no Democratic establishment anymore, is there?
- [31:54]
C
Yeah, I mean, they're there, they're just quiet.
- [31:58]
E
Yeah, you just. What's the point of being an establishment?
- [32:01]
C
I mean.
- [32:03]
I was on a 3 month non compete after I left Politico. So I wasn't able to write during the Democratic. Or during the shutdown. Right. That we just had. But, like, look at the shutdown. Like, that would have never happened if the base wasn't demanding it. You cannot convince me that Chuck Schumer actually thought that was a good idea and not that he had to do it.
- [32:26]
E
Well, and what did they get out of it?
- [32:27]
C
Yeah, yeah. So I, look, the liberal base is the progressive base. They've got so much power right now. And they're calling the shots. Very much. They're calling the shots.
- [32:40]
E
So let me just talk a little bit about. We started talking about Donald Trump going to Pennsylvania, finally going back out on the trail. Do are Republicans or is this just baked in? Are Republicans a little bit concerned with the, I don't know, sleepy Donald Trump? I mean, do people ever talk about the fact that, okay, so Donald Trump is falling asleep at Cabinet meetings? This is a guy who, you know, ran on sleepy Joe Biden. He keeps talking about sleepy Joe Biden. He knows this is an issue. He is obsessed about optics. And the guy is falling asleep at Cabinet meetings. And when he's not falling asleep at Cabinet meetings the other day.
- [33:24]
What'S the number of social media posts he put out? Like 140 in a couple of hours. I mean, do Republicans ever say that we're not only mad at Mike Johnson, we're getting a little worried about Donald Trump? Do you pick up any vibe about that?
- [33:37]
D
Nothing.
- [33:38]
C
I'm not hearing. I'm not picking up any of that behind the scenes. Like, none of it. In fact, I think if you, when you ask Republicans about this, the reaction you often get is just anger that you're even asking a question like this. And I think that is. And I think that there, I think that there's some truth to it because literally, Biden wouldn't do. How many press conferences did he do? His whole presidency. Like we never saw him. Now he's got the, I mean, think about it. The guy, he's interacting with the press every day on a regular basis. They come into that Oval Office. He is, I mean, you might not see it on his daily schedule, but he stays up till one in the morning making calls to lawmakers. He's up at five in the morning making calls to his staff. Like, the notion that what is happening with him is anywhere close to what the media fell down and failed to cover under the Biden administration is just not even comparable. And yeah, I mean, look, does it look bad that she's like, looks like he's nodding off in a Cabinet meeting for sure. But, like, also, you know that he's up until 3 in the morning tweeting 150 times like you said.
- [34:47]
E
Yeah, but they're insane tweets. They're nuts. I mean, they are fucking out of their mind.
- [34:54]
C
Well, those are two different issues.
- [34:56]
E
Okay, Well, I think they're stamina.
- [34:58]
C
His stamina, and I would say Republicans are not concerned about that. And then the other one is the content of these missives. And that's been the Trump story since he came down the escalator. Right. Like, Republicans not loving his tweets, not loving the social media. They're numb to it now. They're used to it. It's kind of like, okay, what do you tweet? Okay, great. Now I know I'm gonna need to react to it. So. Yeah.
- [35:22]
E
All right. So there's been some speculation this week about the number of Trump cabinet members who had their time in the barrel. There was the leak story about, you know, the Trump White House being very, very concerned about Cash Patel using planes and FBI SWAT teams to take care of his girlfriend and her girlfriends. Then, of course, you had the report about, you know, Kristi Noem might be on the bubble. And of course, Pete Hegseth, you know, has had, you know, numerous issues, including not just the war crime issue, but his handling of Signal Gate.
- [36:01]
My gut instinct is that these are the loyalists of the loyal Trumpians. And. But. But let me get your take. Are any of those in real jeopardy? Patel, Nome, Hegseth.
- [36:16]
C
Yeah.
- [36:17]
E
And if they are, who would go first, if anybody?
- [36:21]
C
The media coverage of this has been entirely overblown, if not completely incorrect. I'm actually writing a column about this right now.
- [36:29]
Look, I thrive on these types of stories. I love the palace intrigue. I love to know who has the president's ear and who doesn't. And I would just say there's a big difference between somebody, the president, being annoyed with one of his cabinet members and actually firing them. And as you mentioned, these people are among the most loyal. He loves Kristi Noem. Like, he's not going to fire Kristi Noem, you know, and so what is going on here? What is going on here is there are people in the administration who are rivals and they are out to get one another. Knives out. Exactly. And so they might try to, under.
- [37:08]
The belief amongst the inner circle is that people are trying to knife each other by making them look bad and hoping that it gets the president's attention. And so. But it doesn't matter. Until the president himself believes someone is.
- [37:27]
A vulnerability or that he doesn't like what they're doing, he's not gonna turn on them. These types of stories are not the things that are going to lead to a cash firing or a gnome firing or Hegseth firing.
- [37:42]
E
No, I think you're right there, because you look back on the people that Donald Trump fires, and generally, in order to get fired, you have to criticize Donald Trump or you have to break with Donald Trump. As long as you are carrying water for Donald Trump doing the whole North Korean thing, he is not gonna get rid of you. Kristi Noem is, of course, now one of the faces of his signature immigration issue, Pete Hegset, to back off on him. Look, I mean, he loves what's going on in the Caribbean right now. And Kash Patel is the hammer of, you know, on the hammer of Trumpism. So. And also, I thought one of the reports that was out there was suggesting, and I really want to get your take on this, that Noem was going to be fired and potentially replaced by Glenn Youngkin, which struck me as completely implausible. But I wanted to get your take because you're much, much closer. I'm here in Wisconsin. What do you think of that story?
- [38:37]
C
You know, I don't know. Like, where is this stuff? I have been told that, like, the president, they'll raise these reports to him and ask him about it, and he just laughs. Like, he just laughs and he says, where is this coming from? So I don't know. I mean, Glenn. Glenn Youngkin, like, I could see him. It's not like he's close with the president, but, like, I don't know. Like, why would the president pick him over someone who's been more loyal to him for one of these positions? It just. It doesn't. It doesn't make any sense.
- [39:08]
E
See, Glenn Youngkin is also a. And again, I hope people don't misunderstand me, but he's a substantial person with a personal life outside. Almost all of you look around that cabinet table, and these are all creatures of Donald Trump. Why would Glenn Youngkin, first of all, want that job? And, well, maybe he wants it, but Donald Trump wants somebody who is absolutely chemically loyal, someone who will never tell him no. And you can imagine a moment where Glenn Youngkin might say, no, I'm not gonna do so. I found that report to be implausible, but also a fundamental misunderstanding of this dynamic that you've described about how the Cabinet. Okay, so in the next Couple of days you are churning stuff out. What are you looking at? What should we be paying attention to? I've obviously include on the U.S. supreme Court whether they are going to. And again, this is kind of a paradox. If they rule against Trump on the big tariff issue, it will be the most significant legal defeat he suffered so far. On the other hand, it may bail him out of political problems by eliminating the tariffs that are contributing so much to the affordability problem. So what are you looking, what are you watching over the next few days?
- [40:18]
C
Yeah, if they strike, if they strike the tariffs down, it's going to be total chaos here in Washington. Absolutely. The big thing I would say that I'm watching again is this, what are they going to do about the Obamacare subsidies?
- [40:33]
It just feeds into the problem they have about the affordability issue. And Republicans healthcare is such a difficult issue for them. It single handedly cost them the 2018 midterm elections. Right?
- [40:48]
E
Yes.
- [40:49]
C
They gotta remember that.
- [40:52]
Even if they don't, then they're in for a rude awakening a year from now. So I'm gonna be watching that. I am doing like I had mentioned to you in my newsletter, we'll have sort of a layout of all the different rumors we've heard about cabinet officials leaving and which ones are real. What is, maybe there's some real flavor in one of these stories, but it's totally falls on something else. Like it's going to actually like go through what is true and what is not with a bit of a reality check. So I have been sort of zeroed in on that. And then of course I'm still watching like the Hill reaction to the double tap Venezuela boat strike. I think some, I know we've talked about a lot, this has been talked about a lot in the past week, but it's really rare that we see Republican chairs, Republican lawmakers tie the hands of the administration and say until you give us certain information on this, we're gonna cap your travel budget. Which is what they're doing for Pete Hagseth. Like he can't get a fourth of his travel budget unless he gives this information. That's real oversight right there. And I mean Republicans on the Hill have not done anything like this with President Trump in the White House. They just, they have totally gotten rid of their or not used their Article 1 powers at all. This is their Article 1 power. So I'm gonna be watching that to see if they can actually get what they want or if they end up folding, which is kind of what I'm predicting they will do.
- [42:19]
E
Fascinating. And of course, somewhere in the distant mists of the future, the Epstein files are still hanging out there. They're still there. I don't hold out a lot of hope that Pam Bondi is going to be releasing anything that is not absurdly redacted. But Rach, thank you so much for taking time out for a wide ranging conversation. If you have not yet subscribed, the newsletter is the Inner Circle with Rachel Bade that you can find it on Substack. Thank you so much.
- [42:49]
C
Thank you Charlie. Happy to come on.
- [42:51]
E
And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. You know why we do this, why we will continue to do this for the duration? Because it is now more important than ever to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones. Thank you.
- [43:20]
D
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