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- [00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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Charlie Sykes
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Ryan Reynolds
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Unknown
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- [01:43]
Charlie Sykes
I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to another episode of to the Contrary podcast. There is so much going on. We are joined by my good friend Olivia Troy. Welcome back, Olivia.
- [01:53]
Olivia Troy
First of all, thank you, Charlie. Good to be back with you.
- [01:57]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, so we're going to talk about what's been going on, what happened in Minnesota, what's going on with, with Israel, Iran and Donald Trump. The the, his latest flip flops on the mother of all tacos involving workplace deportations and raids. But let's just talk about what you were doing this morning because you've had an extraordinary experience. So just, just tell us about that, please.
- [02:20]
Olivia Troy
Yeah, so I have been attending immigration court hearings. I was there for several hours this morning watching a close family friend of mine live this firsthand as we watch what's going to happen to her family member who is currently waiting removal proceedings. And I have to say, just never in a million years. You have Mike Pence's former homeland Security advisor sitting here in immigration court Observing, yeah, me, these families. But I just felt like it was important to really understand and really see firsthand what's really going on here. And Charlie, I can't describe what the feeling is to watch these families going through this, to hear the stories about children who have special needs, who are wondering if they're about to lose a parent, lose income. Just the whole setup of how does this family continue on? And one of the things that struck me during it, not to ramble on, was some of the judges questions and the way ICE attorneys or the people presenting the case were obviously their focus to. You're a gang member, you're this. I mean, they just rattle off accusations and then the people are forced to scramble and defend it. In some cases, what I saw was that they don't know what is going to be presented until the day of when they have certain hearings. So then you have these families who. Some of them. I mean, it's hard. You have to pay for legal representation, right? So you're. You have to pay to be represented in this courtroom, Pay to fight for your mom or your dad or your spouse, brother, sister. And also just kind of struck me like, what does the future gonna look like with all these kids who are going through this right now, who are younger, who have special needs or are watching this, like, what is that generation going to look like for America? The aftermath of all of this, when this period hopefully passes someday, you know, where we're moving past it. But honestly, Charlie, that was one of the things that I kept thinking about all morning.
- [04:31]
Charlie Sykes
So at least in these. In these courtrooms, you're having some. You're having due process. But does it always matter what happens in the courtroom? Because I'm seeing all of these stories of people who go to the courtroom and are released, you know, by the judge and then seized in the hallways by. By ICE agents. I mean, this is what there's. There's several things that have been really shocking recently. I mean, number one is the number of people who are. Who are grabbed outside the courtroom. And basically, it doesn't matter what happens in the immigration courtroom. The fact that we have these pictures of these masked agents, which again, in the United States of America, I know that we've been numbed by so many things, but it is appalling. And of course, in just the last couple of days, we've had the arrest, the manhandling, the handcuff of a United States senator in New York. You had the city controller, who's a candidate for mayor, who showed up at One of these hearings, a hearing very much like the one you're describing, and he's in the hallway and he's arrested by ICE agents who, you know, said that he assaulted them. There's videotape showing he didn't. And he's making the point, you don't have the authority to arrest an American citizen. So give me your sense of what's happening, because if there was any, if anyone believed that ICE might have been embarrassed or shamed by the reaction to the manhandling of Senator Padilla, they're not. My sense is you're going to see a lot more of this that they feel really emboldened.
- [06:04]
Olivia Troy
Oh, absolutely. I think that that was the tone throughout the morning. And this is my second hearing that I've attended in both hearings. Honestly, in the aftermath of it, when they're over, I really. We look at each other and we say, does this really matter? Let me. And we're going through the due process right now, but it feels like it is pre baked. This is what it is. And it's also lawlessness. Look, and in this situation, I know firsthand, this person was picked up on the way, getting ready to go to work. This person owns their own company. Five unmarked cars pulled up in front of their house unexpectedly.
- [06:39]
Charlie Sykes
5, 5, 5 unmarked cars.
- [06:41]
Olivia Troy
5, 5, 5. I watched the camera, the ring camera footage, because it was through the ring camera that we found out that he had been taken away because they left the truck running and they just took him. And in the video, it's chilling because you can hear the individual saying, call my lawyer. I need to talk to my lawyer. Can I tell my family? Can I see my son who's a toddler? None of that happens. He gets turned around, handcuffed, thrown in the car, and no showing a warrant, no IDs. I literally found the entire time watching it. I rewatched that. I still rewatch it because it's so astounding. And to know the person in that video and think that this is happening across our country and the fact that now we have senators getting arrested, I mean, it's just so horrific that this is where we are as a nation. And I just, I do think that a lot of these people are emboldened now. They think they're above the law for ICE officers to behave this way. And the other side of it, to me is the incredibly damaging effect that this is going to have on law enforcement, on other overall missions of the Homeland Security enterprise that Homeland Security Investigations does. Right? I mean, they do. They're supposed to be focused on countering child trafficking, human trafficking, other missions like that. But this is destroying any credibility or public trust that we have with law enforcement and these agencies when they're going around doing these types of things. Because why would anyone trust them? Why would anyone, like who's showing up at your door if you're masked up? How do I know. How do you. How do I know that you're ice? How do I know that you're not a militia? Why should I trust you? I mean, it's all these layers in society. I mean, what do you think about.
- [08:33]
Charlie Sykes
Like, well, and you, and you bring up what happened over the weekend in Minnesota. I mean, this is a digression. I want to get back to the immigration issue, where you had somebody who dressed up as a police officer, impersonated a police officer, and then murdered, you know, a state legislature, a state legislator, and tried to murder another one. Police were in the position of saying, you know, don't answer your door unless you verify the identity of a police officer. If anything, this should have underlined the importance of why government agents need to identify themselves. And when people ask for identity, that. That is a legitimate question to do. Okay, so I'm going to. We'll talk about that a little bit later. But also in the last couple of days, what we've had is, you know, Donald Trump very explicitly saying that he wants to target democratically control cities, that he's going after Chicago and New York. It is as if the mask is being taken off and saying we are going to politicize the enforcement of immigration law, which, again, five minutes ago, would have been considered a breathtakingly illegal, unconstitutional abuse of power. And yet it's now just one part of the news cycle.
- [09:52]
Olivia Troy
I just, I don't think they care. I think that, again, I think that they are going to do this in every color topic that we think of, Right? I mean, you politicize immigration, you politicize fema, you politicize disaster relief. This is how the Trump team operates. And I think, you know, he, I, when they say things, we should believe them. Right? That's the lesson that we've all learned in this, is that they ran on this and here we are. But I think it is undermining of our Constitution and our rule of law over and over again.
- [10:28]
Charlie Sykes
But I think it's also important to say, you know, again, what happened in Los Angeles was the fight that Donald Trump wanted. I mean, he wanted that, that confrontation. He wanted, frankly, you know, he was hoping to have the images of the, of the burning cars. So what do you think? I mean, you know, when he says we're going to go into cities like New York and Chicago, other Democratically controlled, he wants confrontation, he wants riots. Right. He wants, he's baiting people into acts of violence so that he can then use that as a pretext for what?
- [11:05]
Olivia Troy
Well, I think it's all setting the narrative of Donald Trump is the only one who can bring law and order to the country and he is the one that's actually creating the chaos and the instability across our country. Right. But it allows him to bait people. It allows him to paint these Democratic leaning cities and say this is what the country looks like under Democrats, even though he is the one that's going in and instigating things. And look, I know this because it's the same playbook that they did in 2020, right. And I've talked about this, where they went into these cities, it was the summer of 2020, and they wanted to instill fear in suburban counties. They wanted to instill fear in Americans that were watching this. And so they would sit there and make false claims about antifa. They would downplay the domestic terrorism, which we're seeing firsthand play out right now, especially in Minnesota, and political violence and things like that. They would discount whatever was happening in the far right wing operations that we were seeing on the ground. And I know this because we weren't allowed to talk about those assessments, we weren't allowed to publish those types of assessments. And so they wanted people to go into these communities. I mean, they, they wanted Mike Pence to go into Minnesota during the height of the riots and they wanted to stir the pot. And I was like, honestly, it was a very honest conversation where I was like, nothing good will come of that. Is that what you want to do to our country?
- [12:37]
Charlie Sykes
Well, it is what he wants to do to the country. And the fact that in Kenosha, in my home state, you had Trump actually come here. And I think, quite frankly, the fallout from that almost won Wisconsin for Donald Trump. I think that there was a narrative that this wasn't working for him. And I'm not sure that that's true. I think he's been hoping for something similar. So let's talk about the mother of all tacos. Trump always chickens out. We're still on immigration here, not on, not on terrorists. The very weird flip flop, flip flop. And because there were multiple flip flops where he announced that we were hurting the agriculture industry and the hospitality industry and that these May be illegal immigrants, but they were the good ones. And therefore, he was stopping the workplace raids for farms and for hotels, like the ones he. He operates and everything. First of all, why do you think he did that? And then why did he back off again? I mean, this was so weird. I mean, there's a story in the New York Times this morning. You know, businesses just can't figure out what. What. What's going on. It's like one day they announced, we're not enforcing it, and then the next day they announced they are enforcing it. What's going on here, Olivia?
- [13:55]
Olivia Troy
You know, it's been interesting to watch this, because when I was there, in my tenure, during the first Trump administration, I got a lot of the ph from the farmers, whether it was on immigration raids, which they were like, what is happening here? You're actually hurting us. And we voted for you. Right? Those were the kinds of phone calls I was getting as a Homeland Security advisor. I also got the phone calls on tariffs. We're not going to get into that. But, boy, did they raised hell on that because they were like, you're hurting us. We are your voting block. You're hurting us. Again, not everyone voted from the farms, but you know what I'm saying? And I think watching this play out, I was like, I can only imagine that people are saying, you're hurting the economy, by the way, by doing this. That's what's going to be the impact to communities. And so what are you doing? You're not, you know, you're not focusing just on the gang members.
- [14:47]
Charlie Sykes
But this was. This was. This was known. I mean, this was. This was known. Anybody who's been around these things. And yet Stephen Miller and Donald Trump decided, despite all of that evidence, I mean, this is not a new issue, as you point out that we've been talking about this for decades. So I guess the question is, why did he back off sort of at the moment of maximum confrontation? I mean, was it just simply. Trump always chickens out? Somebody comes up to him at Mar A Lago and says, you know, dear Mr. Trump, with tears in their eyes, sir, this is hurting the agriculture industry. I guess what I thought was really on display is that there is no such thing as Trumpism as a principle or a consistent principle. Now, Stephen Miller has a very, very consistent point of view, but Donald Trump just blows with the wind. And Donald Trump. And again, again, these are not obscure facts that these raids would damage these industries. And yet, so there's no lodestar for Donald Trump. He will throw Anyone under the bus or, or he will give out fear or favor. So why do you think he backed off then? Okay, so having done this, having, having, having given this, this, this sweet deal to agriculture and hospitality, why then did he reverse? Because, I mean, that didn't look good. I mean, Stephen Miller came into the office and said, you're looking weak, Mr. President. We have to go and we have to smash these people.
- [16:23]
Olivia Troy
I actually do think that it's Stephen Miller. I think what happens is that Trump does listen to people as, you know, the last person in his ear. Sometimes he repeats whatever he heard. And I think he gets swayed by people when they weigh in. And it wouldn't surprise me if behind the scenes in the White House, which I've lived this and saw that there are people being like, hey, this is actually not going to help you. This is creating some significant problems across the board, and it could impact other things that we haven't serviced or haven't figured out yet. And I can see Stephen Miller letting that sort of play out and then coming in and closing the door and being like, what the hell are you doing? This is America first. This is the agenda we ran on. You are the immigration king. We need to deport all these people. I mean, I can totally see that being the case. And in the end, Stephen Miller, with the type of power that he has, unfortunately, and bullying everyone, because that's what he does. The last person in his ear, in Trump's ear, is usually who wins. And so I think that is kind of what I saw in the past 24 hours. Like, oh, okay, somebody must have talked common sense. But how is he going to respond? And what is Stephen Miller going to say about this and maga. Right. Because a lot of these people are egging him on. And so then they're turning on him and they're like, oh, he's turning on us. So a lot of that. And Stephen Miller will walk in and set the record straight. And I think we're living Stephen Miller policies right now. That's what I think it is.
- [17:56]
Charlie Sykes
I think you are. Okay, so let's switch gears to talk about what happened in Minnesota over the weekend. Now, there's a pattern that I think is really important to note, which is that you have an incident that can be bad, but the reaction in many ways is even more disturbing. And let me just put that in context. So the manhandling of a United States senator, watching Senator Padilla being thrown to the ground and handcuffed, that was bad. That was shocking. The reaction I thought was even more ominous because what you could see is that MAGA loved it, they wanted more of it, they justified it, and you in fact are going to see more of that. Okay, so let's leave that aside. Much more serious what happened over the weekend. You have this targeted assassination. I mean, you know, there's no lack of clarity about what was going on here. You have a Trump supporting right wing zealot who made a list of Democratic legislators in Minnesota and in my home state of Wisconsin that he was targeting for assassination. He planned it very carefully. He, you know, shot and killed a former speaker of the of the House and her husband and a state senator, which by the way would have flipped control of the state legislature. Leaving that aside. Okay, this was horrible and horrific and normally this would be one of those moments when it would pull people together. I want to focus on the reaction to it first of all, the first day. All of the MAGA influencers, Elon Musk, Mike Lee, essentially trying to politicize this, you know, flooding the zone with disinformation that this was probably a leftist and then just kind of the lack of empathy that you're getting from the very top. So I mean, you have these horrific events that are, you know, and people, we need to focus on them. But I also think the coarsening of our culture and just the total lack of empathy in the response is I think even more troublesome. Well, as troublesome.
- [20:07]
Olivia Troy
Oh, it was ugly. Oh, it was absolutely ugly. To see the fact that there was absolutely just no human reaction by some of these individuals. That it was immediately Marxist, leftist, like immediate, no facts involved, no real, you know, let me see what this says and plays out. No real moment of violence is wrong, no matter what, no matter who it comes from.
- [20:35]
Charlie Sykes
Well, there was, there was sort of the boilerplate, but then there was the Mike Lee, this is what Marxists do. That Trump asked, are you gonna call Tim Walz? Did you see his response? He was asked on Air Force One, would you call the governor of Minnesota? Nah, I'm not gonna call him. You know, he's a bum, he's incompetent. It is the, you know, it is the, it feels like just the. And I've been thinking about the 10 years of Donald Trump, what he's done, not just to our politics, but to our culture and to our humanity. And I think that you just see this playing out and it's like you've been dealing with homeland security for years. The climate that we've created of considering your political opponents to be Scum and vermin and vile and terrorists and communists who hate America and are trying to destroy everything that is good and beautiful. You know, how do we think that does. That does not lead to acts of violence. And we've seen so many. I mean, we keep talking about, will there be political violence? There has been political violence, yes. January 6th, the attack on Josh Shapiro, the attempt to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, firebombings. We are living in an incredibly dangerous moment, aren't we?
- [21:49]
Olivia Troy
Yes. And it is this type of rhetoric that has perpetuated it and grown this type of violent movement in our country. And they know it. They know it, right. I mean, I was there when I briefed the guy that was sending the pipe bombs to people, to all the Democrats in the media, and he had a van full of Trump paraphernalia and.
- [22:10]
Charlie Sykes
Had gone to the Trump Cesar Sea. I mean, right?
- [22:12]
Olivia Troy
Yes, yes, fully aware of it. They knew about the manifestos. You know, this guy had a hit list in Minnesota. Same thing that. I mean, manifestos like. Same thing happened when I worked at Pittsburgh shooting, right. The synagogue shooting. Same thing with El Paso. And they were told that this type of reaction was only going to fuel worse violence. And this is Trump team's first time around. And here we are today. What have they learned from it? Nothing. They see this as an opportunity to punch at people politically. Everything to them is another opportunity to take a swing and get a rise in from their base instead of actually taking a step back and saying what is best for the greater good of America and for the safety of all Americans. Because that's what's happening here. But they don't care. They don't care, Charlie. It's about creating this division again that allows them to exploit this division.
- [23:06]
Charlie Sykes
Are they actually, though, exploiting the fear? Because I think it's impossible to describe the politics that we have right now, the political moment that we have right now, without talking about the fact that people are fearful. Remember when Senator said, you know, that, you know, too many people are afraid. And she specifically was not just talking about being primaried, but physical fear. So this atmosphere of menace, you know, are they actually. Is this a subconscious or is this a conscious thing that, you know, we kind of like the fact that people are fearful. They're looking over their shoulders because of the potential of violence. I mean, this is a serious charge. I mean, I understand this is a very serious charge that they are actually using this and they like the fact that there is that people are concerned like this.
- [23:59]
Olivia Troy
Well, I think it speaks to their want of control. That's how I view it from my angle is looking at the totalitarian instincts of creating this fear means that they control the state. And I think it's creating fear across the board in society. And this is a new level of evil plays in hand.
- [24:18]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, but this is a new level of evil. I mean, this is, this is. We keep talking about. This is not normal. We're not in a normal world. But if, in fact, there's even a glimmer of truth in what I am, you know, asking about here, that, that at some point they go, you know what? I like the fact that people are afraid that, that somebody might show up at their house, that if they say something or do something, that. That something might happen to them. This is something that we've never had, I don't think, in American politics before, certainly not in my lifetime, that you would actually have the weaponization of physical fear to gain political power. I mean, that's, that's, that is off the charts.
- [24:58]
Olivia Troy
Well, I, I think that we are dealing with some very abhorrent personalities here, Charlie. And I think, to me, there was no nothing more chilling when Trump was told that Mike Pence's life was in danger and he didn't care. And I think that basically sums up the moment that we're in. So I don't ever expect Donald Trump to change course in how he responds to these things. I think the question is, can the Mike Lees be pushed out or away and overcome by others in the Republican Party who are going to say, enough, we're not going to do this and band together and where Democrats and Republicans come together, because it's not going to be just the Democrats trying to figure out how to navigate the space. Right? It has to be everyone across the board that is going to want to come together and say, this is not okay.
- [25:50]
Charlie Sykes
You know, you make a really good point when you talk about that defining moment, that when Donald Trump is told that his own vice president, his loyal vice president, that his life and the life of his family might be at risk, and he frankly didn't give a shit about it. But it goes back to the whole meaning of January 6th, which, you know, we've talked about endlessly. But, but it's worth really thinking about what the meaning of January 6th was, because that was quite clearly, literally the weaponization of political violence in order to maintain power. And the fact that Donald Trump did it, that he justified it, that in fact, he pardoned, you know, the rioters who attacked police officers, you Know, if there's any question, why has political violence become a factor in American politics? Part of the equation of American politics, You don't really need to look much past January 6th. It's staring us right in the face that this is what Donald Trump is capable of doing, prepared to do, and liked, in fact, doing. And he still to this day, you know, I mean, look, the. Of all the things that have happened, the mass pardoning of all of the January 6 rioters, including the ones who attacked and tased and pummeled and may have led to the deaths of police officers, ought to have shocked the conscience of the nation. And unfortunately, it didn't. And so here we are.
- [27:18]
Olivia Troy
I think that pardon sent a complete major signal to some of these individuals who might engage in this type of violence that it's okay. Right? That if you do it in the name of our politics, or if you do it in the name of Trump, or if you're doing it for the cause that is aligned with theirs, that it's okay that you'll walk. I mean, that's basically what was said.
- [27:41]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, and I've said this before. I mean, look, we need to understand that a lot of these people actually think that they are fighting for freedom and democracy. Right? That this is 1776, that they are the true pages. And if you actually believe that the opposition Democratic legislators in Wisconsin and Minnesota are the enemy who are trying to destroy democracy and freedom in America, then it is sort of legitimizing, taking up arms against them. Okay, so, Olivia, talk to me about Mike Lee. Talk to me about. I keep coming back to this theme about the broken brains of MAGA Mike Lee. And as I've said, as a constituent of Ron Johnson, I hesitate to throw stones at the senators from other states, but Mike Lee was at one time considered a serious guy. They talked about him as a possible Supreme Court justice or Attorney general. You may have disagreed with him, but he was a principled libertarian. What happened to him that he has become this toxic Internet troll who needed to be shamed into taking down his stupid tweets about the assassinations over the weekend.
- [28:51]
Olivia Troy
Yeah, the fall of Mike Lee has been interesting to watch. I think it's. You know, I think this is what happens when you enter Trump Circle. I think, you know, he's gone down the rabbit hole. He's been there. I mean, this guy was the one that was sending the Jan6 text. He was all about overturning the election. He was all about it. Right. I mean, there was the threat again, back to Jan6, whether we want to go back to that and talk about that or not, he played a very active role during that time until he realized, you know, that these texts, obviously, you know, wouldn't have written them if he knew they would come out. But like, that to me, said everything right then and there again. So I, I'm not surprised. I mean, I thought it was disgusting when he posted the Nightmare on Walt's street, right. Picture. And I, I, I mean, this was a brutal, horrific tragedy that just happened.
- [29:41]
Charlie Sykes
Your joke.
- [29:41]
Olivia Troy
And it's not funny.
- [29:43]
Charlie Sykes
No, it's not funny. And I thought one of the positive, since I've emphasized the negative thought, one of the positive results of this was that he, in fact, was apparently successfully shamed. You had the actual confrontation from Tina Smith, who is his colleague, a senator from Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, you know, got in his face and talked to him. One of the top aides in Tina Smith's office wrote an amazing letter which I posted on my substack to Mike Lee's staff, basically saying, have you no decency? Have you no compassion? Why did you do this? Why would you use the power of your office to, you know, make light of this particular moment? And it was one of those. And again, you know, you say this is what happens. You get in Trump's circle. Okay, I get all that. Yeah, but, but, and I've seen this happen. I've seen the Invasion of the Body Snatchers, but it's, how do you take someone like a Mike Lee? And I mean, what happened to his fundamental humanity and decency, I guess, which of course assumes that it was there in the, you know, in the, in the first place, that, that something changed. Maybe Trump just simply exposes the dark recesses of, of the soul as opposed to actually dementing people.
- [31:04]
Olivia Troy
I've been wondering that with a lot of these people in Trump's circle that continue to get worse and worse along the way, is maybe this is really who they are and who they were back then. They just were contained. And I just wonder for his constituents, for Mike Lee's constituents in Utah, are you okay with that, is what I would ask. Like, are you, are you, do you feel good about that? Do you feel good about backing someone like that that makes statements in situations like this? And I wonder the reaction if the shoe was on the other foot. Right? I mean, if it was a different person and I, it would be hell raising across the board in unity. And I just, I wonder, like, does this eventually permeate through American society and to the voters out there to be like, I don't want that person to represent me. I may be conservative, I may believe in certain conservative policies, but will they say, hey, there's gotta be better options in there if I'm gonna vote Republican, there's someone else. That's normal. That's not gonna do.
- [32:10]
Charlie Sykes
They just reelected Donald Trump. You know, I mean, this is the electorate. I actually, what I've noticed In the last 10 years since Trump came down the golden escalator, is how sort of the opposite has happened again. The coarsening of the debate, the willingness to engage in this. And then here's this other cancer at the heart of MAGA and of Trumpism, which is the absolute refusal to ever apologize. Because you think about, again, Earth 1.0, a rational universe. If you don't recognize Senator Padilla and you throw him to the ground, you apologize, you say, there was a misunderstanding. We didn't mean to do that, but there's no apology. Mike Lee could have said, okay, I got some bad information. This was a bad moment. I am so sorry. He'd get on the phone, he would call people. But MAGA does not allow that, does it? MAGA does. Has. Has now basically said, never say you were wrong, Never apologize, never back off. So the toxification becomes intensified.
- [33:12]
Olivia Troy
And I think that's what we're seeing that permeates across the board, unfortunately. I mean, we're seeing it. It's the division that we're seeing in our families and in our neighborhoods. I mean, we're seeing this in our circles of friendship where people are entrenched. And I think the leadership and the example comes from the top, as we know.
- [33:31]
Charlie Sykes
I totally agree. Okay, so let's talk about the biggest story of the day, which is obviously the possibility the United States will join, or maybe not join with Israel in the attack on Iran. You know, I wrote yesterday, you know, there's the fog of war, and then there is this. You know, this war may or may not eliminate Iran's nuclear capability, may or may not result in regime change. The United States may or may not join in this. All we know is that you have the President of the United States tweeting out these all caps, you know, unconditional surrender. It's an incredibly dangerous moment. And you have a huge split in the MAGA universe over all of this. I mean, there are some people who really thought America first meant isolationism, you know, and the. The end of endless wars. So give me your sense of where we're at right now. Donald Trump came out yesterday and said, nobody knows what I'm going to do. I am. You know, I don't know. What do you. What do you think about that? You know, he's playing the madman theory, right? It's like, here's my strength. I'm going to look as crazy as possible, maybe scare the shit out of them. Well, there's a downside to the madman theory as well, Right. I mean, it doesn't always work out.
- [34:46]
Olivia Troy
Yeah. You know, and it's funny that you mentioned that, because watching this play out, I immediately thought back to the election cycle in the 2024 campaign, where I heard that from some people out on the field. And I was talking to Republican voters, and they said, well, I think the crazy is it. I think that's what keeps us out of conflict, because the other countries think that he's so nuts that he might actually contain them. So that's part of the strategy. Like, they. And I was like, no. Once you work with him and you see him firsthand, you realize that that is actually. There is no strategy, and it's actually dangerous, especially when the rest of the world is starting to build alliances, which we're seeing now, because they can't trust the United States because we're so volatile in the way we behave when it comes to diplomacy and foreign policy. And so when I heard him say that statement, nobody knows what I'm doing, I'm like, you don't even know what you're going to do. It depends on what the last thing you hear in the room is, or it depends on what side of the bed you wake up on today. I mean, it just. It's neurotic and it's sporadic. And I have to say, like, watching what's happening right now in this moment, I'm terrified, Charlie, because I'm thinking about. I'm visualizing the situation Room and the personality sitting at that table.
- [35:55]
Charlie Sykes
Look around. There are no adults in that room.
- [35:57]
Olivia Troy
Exactly. I mean, the leadership at the helm is utterly. I mean, I'm just. I am very worried because this is a significant moment in the Middle east in escalation, and we have very inexperienced people that are sitting here trying to navigate a very complicated situation. And I think Israel knows exactly what they're doing. I mean, they've kind of sort of cornered Donald Trump. Right. I mean, it's been that. They're our allies. Donald Trump has stood by them. They've really backed Trump into a corner. From my.
- [36:30]
Richard Karn
What?
- [36:30]
Olivia Troy
I watched this because now they're like, all right, let's go prove your.
- [36:34]
Charlie Sykes
Well, it was, it was interesting. It was very, very clear that Trump didn't want this to happen, was not really involved in all of this. They actually put out a statement after the first attacks of what Marco Rubio did, says, we are not part of this at all. And then Trump sees on Fox News that it looks like a success. And because he loves, you know, leading from behind, he comes running up and saying, no, no, no, we're part of this as well. It is interesting that among all the people in the world that kind of get Donald Trump. You know, a lot of, you know, Republicans, I don't think get him, or, you know, business executives that cave into him. Vladimir Putin gets him. Benjamin Netanyahu gets him, which is basically, we can play this guy, and Benjamin Netanyahu played him. But this is, again, I come from a different. Well, I mean, well, I come from a, you know, I, I have been traditionally, for decades, been pro Israel. However, I don't think that Benjamin Netanyahu now deserves the benefit of the doubt or as a reliable narrator. I think the world would be a much, much better place if Iran did not have nuclear weapons. I think the world would be a better and safer place if we did have regime change. However, it's very, very dangerous. And what comes afterwards could, in fact be worse. Which means that right now, at this moment, you want the smartest, most sober, most prudent, most statesmanlike, military and diplomatic people in that room. That is not what we have. You know, what we have is we have a reality TV host and a dipsomaniacal chode in charge of the military. What could possibly go wrong, by the way? What the, what's going on with Tulsi Gabbard? So Tulsi Gabbard has been thrown under the bus. I mean, you want to talk about, like, the worst of the worst who may actually be right. She testifies that they weren't coming up with a nuclear weapon. I don't know whether she's right or not. I think she's one of the worst members of the cabinet. She's not even invited to the meetings anymore. Trump basically says, I don't care what she says.
- [38:34]
Olivia Troy
So she's only care about intelligence. That's the problem, though, right? That's, that's actually the bottom line. He doesn't, he doesn't care what the intelligence community says. He never has. And when they do present facts with actual evidence and lay out the case for yes or no or right or wrong or what's truly happening, he doesn't want to listen to it or he overrides it, or he changes the narrative or he undermines the community. Right? He's, I mean, that is what he's known for. And so I think it doesn't surprise me that he, I mean, I'm wondering, is he actually taking the presidential daily briefing now and we're in the middle of potentially a full scale war that's about to blow up. Is he actually paying attention to the daily briefings? Who is actually coordinating that right now? And that's why I say I am concerned about how this is going to progress. And I think he thinks that he's playing a game here. Well, he can threaten and he can hold us over Iran's head and kind of say, oh, we're going to come after you and do these veiled threats. Well, we need to be thinking about the potential consequences here because they're not in this to play. And we need to be thinking about our equities overseas, our military bases, intel officers, service members, and also Iranian proxies that will be deployed in response. What is going to happen when they attack our critical infrastructure or cyber through cyberattracks around the world like us. These are all the discussions that need to be war gamed right now with serious people at the table being like, if you do this, this is what's going to come. And then we are, we are in it again. I mean, so I just don't know. And I think about it, look, I think about Keith Kellogg. Where is Keith Kellogg? He was over there negotiating with Ukraine. They pushed him aside when he was a little too honest. Keith Kellogg used to be one of the voices in the room where he was like, nope. Really think it's a bad idea to go back and retaliate again against Iran? Like, and this is why and Cooler has prevailed. I, I don't know who is in that role right now today.
- [40:38]
Charlie Sykes
Well, it doesn't to your point. This is a very, very elaborate chess game. You have to think about what's the next move. You know, what's the next move. Donald Trump may, you know, be in the room and somebody says, you know, we could use that bunker buster bomb. We could take this thing out and be focused on that. Well, okay, what is the next move? The move after that, to move after that. We have a lot of troops in the Middle east who are within missile range of the Iranians. The Iranians have made it very, very clear they would retaliate against American troops. You have the Houthis who could again, Start attacking shipping, we could have the Persian Gulf shut off again. What happens if Vladimir Putin airlifts a brigade of Russian troops into Tehran to support his ally there? What happens? What are the consequences? You have all of these things need to be considered. And the question is, who's going to be telling him? Who is he listening to? Okay, so on this category of who does Donald Trump listen to? It's not just the people in the room. He could be on the phone, for all we know, with Laura Loomer. And by the way, that's not a joke. He could be listening to her. You know, the craziest people.
- [41:46]
Olivia Troy
He fired people. He fired people based on her. Right. He fired people on the National Security Council, who, by the way, I wish.
- [41:53]
Charlie Sykes
Were at their desks right now would be valuable now.
- [41:56]
Olivia Troy
Yes.
- [41:57]
Unknown
Yeah.
- [41:57]
Olivia Troy
So, I mean, that's what it is. Dave Bannon calling the shots. Like who. Who is doing the foreign diplomacy right now for the United States. And the other thing, just to color this strategically, globally that I worry about is everyone else, the international community is watching what the United States is going to do. Right. Especially. And are we going to union, laterally get involved with Israel? Because I think that has implications for other world white events. Like, I think people, other countries are looking at this and saying, what happens with China and Taiwan? What will the US do then? Like, what is it? I mean, that is what the rest of the world is looking at right now, thinking, okay, now we're playing chess and the United States is the unpredictable chess, like token. Right? We have no idea what this is going to do, how this is going to escalate. We have no idea how we're going to prepare for this. And it's telling. It's telling. What does it mean for repercussions and other things?
- [42:51]
Charlie Sykes
Well, exactly. I mean, when you say tweet out unconditional surrender, if in fact you do back off later, there are consequences of that. Okay, so you, I think, understand exactly what I'm getting at here when I say that normally I can make a reasonable prediction of who is going to influence Donald Trump. You look at the MAGA ID the loudest voices in, in maga, in MAGA media, and you could generally predict downstream what Trump is going to do. I have to admit that right now the signals are awfully mixed because this is a really dramatic split. You probably have seen, you know, the back and forth between Sean Hannity the hawk, Tucker Carlson the dove. You have Steve, you mentioned Steve Bannon. You have a lot of the people like Steve Bannon. And Marjorie Taylor Greene and the other America Firsters who are absolutely opposed to all of this. And, you know, Tucker Carlson is, seems to be doubling down. He's not as influential as he used to be. But, but how does this actually play out? Because we haven't. Trump has, has had one of his reptilian instincts, is he's always paid attention to his base. He never does anything that separates him too significantly from his base. You look at the polls, you look at the voices very much split. How does this play out, do you think? I have no idea at the moment.
- [44:13]
Olivia Troy
I, I actually am not sure because, you know, he did run on a platform of no wars.
- [44:18]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [44:19]
Olivia Troy
And what are we seeing? Nothing but conflict right now. So I, I don't know, because he did, you know, he said, he criticized Biden when he was in the presidency. He said this, this sort of stuff wouldn't be happening because I would be strong, and it's because we're weak. Well, what's the explanation right now then? Because now you're going to go in and purposely stir the pot. I mean, this is escalating. You've been negotiating with Iran for weeks for what, nothing, apparently. So, I mean, like, I, I don't know how this voting base and these influencers are going to sort of get to a, I don't know, resolution here. And I don't know who he will eventually, what side he'll fall on. I mean, I think we'll know fairly soon. But like, I think the thing was with Trump, he'll say things like, no wars. And he will say, no, we're not going to have troops, we're going to bring them all home. Right. But he loves strength. He loves using the military to blowing things up. He loves the show of it. Right. And so I'm not convinced that he doesn't want to do just like in his head, just one strike to show the power of America, use that big bomb, because we've never used it. Like, I totally think that that is the calculus with them right now.
- [45:34]
Charlie Sykes
And I don't, I think it is, too. It is. Well, except, except that somebody's going to say, okay, that's going to be good for that news cycle. But then when the missiles start landing and killing American soldiers in the bases, what if the Iranians took out an aircraft carrier? What happens then? You know, do you want to be, do you remember what happened to Joe Biden when you had the bomb that went off in, in Kabul? This could be your moment. Donald Trump is not the guy who is prepared to have that kind of pain.
- [46:04]
Olivia Troy
So, which is interesting because you literally just described a situation that I saw in the West Wing once, and that's how he was talked off the idea of escalating with Iran the first time around. So I don't know who the person that exists in his orbit right now, who is going to play that role? That is the question.
- [46:29]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, I mean that. But the thing is, again, so what's he listening to? They're the people who are in the room. Nobody's going to, you know, push back against him. But we know that Donald Trump is going to be watching on Fox News, he's going to be watching on social media. He may be, you know, dissing Tucker Carlson, but he understands that there's a constituency there. And, you know, Steve Bannon, there is a constituency there. By the way, did you see the confrontation between Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz, the, the Exorcist? I mean, well, this has become ugly and it's become personal. I mean, there are things that you do and there's things that you. I mean, here you have Tucker Carlson, Ted Cruz comes in, he figures he's going to have a, a debate. Ted Cruz is, you know, a hawk. Tucker Carlson is obviously not. And he probably thinks he's going to have this interesting debate and Tucker Carlson went out of his way to humiliate him. We've only seen excerpts, but this is one of those things where, you know, you walk out of the studio and you go, what the fuck was that? What are you doing here? I mean, you're, you're, this is, there's broken bottles in the alley on all of this. And this is going to leave scars. And we haven't seen this kind of division in MAGA yet, really, so far.
- [47:39]
Olivia Troy
No, that is true. And I wonder where, where this all leads to because it kind of is sort of cultivating this environment, that this is what happens now. This is how these people govern. It's just, it's fights and it comes to blows and it's ugly. And so I don't know, I think this is an interesting scenario of the division that's happening in that world. But I do know that it is bad for the country, though, because I'm wondering who's actually governing right now without these random things happening in these scuffles. And I just wonder who's actually governing and making sure that we are going to be safe as we navigate through a major conflict right now here.
- [48:28]
Charlie Sykes
Even in Portland, I heard a rumor speaking about, like, who's governing and Maybe it was something I saw on social media and I need to look it up, that there is actually another branch of government in the federal government. Could you just correct me on this? That that there is a Congress that actually has war powers and things like that. Are they, like, are they going to play a new role in this at all?
- [48:54]
Olivia Troy
I would love to know that. I would love to know, because I think that we should be having a hearing immediately right now, and that they should be raising hell. I would think that they would want to exert their power and authority right now to figure out how we're going to navigate this, you would think. But, I mean, we've also seen them, you know, sort of retreat on what happened to Alex Padilla, and I would think that they would want to preserve the institution and not let that happen to their people. Regardless of where you are politically, that's not okay to have people like that arrested and forced to the ground and treat it that way. But I think this is all part of a very different scenario that we have here in our country, in our country's leadership, where there honestly appears to be, whether it's fear, whether it's weakness across the board. But right now, I would say that we need you to step up. We need that branch to step up, because this is a significant moment at Sirius.
- [49:53]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. And again, you would think that they would do it, but as you know, as they work so hard to turn themselves into potted plants, I don't see any change. So what else should we be keeping our eye on? And I ask this as someone who, like, I think everybody's in the same position, is there's so much going on that there are major stories, major issues that every day, I think, you know what? I should be paying more attention to this. And yet we're constantly distracted by the distractions to. The distractions to the bright, shiny objects. So is there something else that we should be keeping an eye on right now in this particular flooded new zone?
- [50:33]
Olivia Troy
I don't know. I mean, there's so much happening right now.
- [50:36]
Charlie Sykes
I know.
- [50:36]
Olivia Troy
I mean, we're watching what's happening in the health space when it comes to vaccines. That's really concerning because the health of our country is at stake here. So there's that. I think, you know, I've actually written about this, and I remain very concerned about privacy and what's happening here with a lot of the Doge stuff that happened in Paler. And then there was an article recently that talked about how airline data being sold in our passenger records Information. That's something that completely. I think most people have missed. And I'm like, that's all part of the combination of privacy and information and access to itineraries on people. I. All of this is concerning very, that I think people aren't paying attention to, but I think they're flooding the zone. Right. And I think they operate that way. And so I think it's hard because we have.
- [51:31]
Charlie Sykes
Those are two. What's happening, great issues. I mean, yes, in a different universe, what RFK Jr is doing to vaccines, doing to, you know, public health would be a dominant story. The attacks on privacy, the surveillance state. And by the way, you know, remember when conservatives actually were concerned about the government, you know, being too powerful. And now when you even, you know, imagine the kind of information and how it, and how, and how it could be, how it could be abused. You know, there was, there was a story I read last night about somebody, I think he was an Australian student who came back into the country and the agents pulled him aside at the airport and they had all of his social media posts. They knew everything that he had written or said about Israel and Gaza and everything. And it's like that is just a fraction of what some of these folks. And by the way, what I feel really guilty about, I have not spent much time talking about what's in this big, beautiful bill, which is one of.
- [52:33]
Olivia Troy
The most consequent pieces of legislation.
- [52:34]
Charlie Sykes
I was listening to that. I mean, leaving aside the massive transfer of wealth from, from the poor to the rich, leaving that aside the restructuring of government, what it does to the courts, all of that stuff, and yet that's moving through. And every single day I keep thinking today's the day when I'm going to write about what's in this legislation and what the politics of this particular bill are. And then something happens that. No, and because something always happens, right?
- [53:05]
Olivia Troy
Yes. I mean, some elected leader gets thrown in handcuffs and we're like, what is happening there? Or a US citizen gets arrested, or, you know, the National Guard is being used or the military is being sent in. I mean, there's just so much happening that it's hard to prioritize and figure out, like, okay, what, what should we highlight the same struggle? And I laugh, by the way, so hard when you mentioned the privacy and conservative. Because I was like, you're looking at one. I mean, I'm just like, of course, that's my world. And having worked in government for so long, I do have concerns about government overreach. Because I think when the wrong people end up in power and it gets into the wrong hands. There's a lot of really bad stuff that they could do on it. And I'm, you know, they fired the main general at the National Security Agency. And when that happened to me, that was a huge alarm. And I talked to other people in national security and I said, look, am I off my rocker now? Am I seeing this right? Because I have really big concerns on this. People that had worked there, people that know the capabilities, were like, no, we should be very concerned about what they're doing to lay the groundwork here. And that's why I'm sitting here going, while all of these things are playing out in daylight, while we're watching things happen globally and domestically and everything, there's also stuff happening behind the scenes that is happening openly. It's just not front and center where we're like, hey, is anyone questioning that? I mean, and honestly, if we're feeling that way, I guess my question is, what is Congress doing? Like, how are they approaching this? Because there should be hearings on it. We should be having a hearing, by the way, on the fact that there's a inexperienced 22 year old person running the office at DHS now that focuses on extremism and domestic incidents, given what we've just seen in Minnesota. So I want to know when is the questioning going to begin about do we have the right people and the leaders at the helm and ask these powerful questions or ask what's happening? Why did the airline data get sold and why is it being like obscured from the fact that government didn't know? I mean, there's all these things, but again, I mean, so much every day.
- [55:23]
Charlie Sykes
But you know what, it's interesting as we're talking about this, I think one of our failures as a civil society in politics has been our lack of imagination, that we have not been able to imagine the way in which these powers could be abused. A year ago, if we would have said some of these things would happen, we would have been accused of Trump derangement syndrome. And day after day, I'm basically saying, you don't have to imagine it. Just look, look what's happening right now. This is the reality today. And so we no longer have to do that. And, and many of the things that were simply theoretical, that seemed paranoid and extreme are now just part of the daily news cycle. So to the extent that there was any complacency about the, you know, the health of American democracy or a constitutional republic, and by the way, I do think that you know, the resistance needs to stop talking about democracy. And I'm going to be misunderstood here, you know, the attack on democracy, because it's so much more than just democracy. It is, you know, it is due process. It is freedom. It is. I mean, maybe we should start a movement. You know, it's the freedom stupid. And those masked ICE agents, you know, grabbing people off the street. This is not what freedom looks like. And we need to take certain things back. We need to take the flag back from them. We need to take the word freedom back from them, too. So a way for people to conceive exactly what's happening.
- [56:50]
Olivia Troy
Well, you know, I attended the no Kings protest. I went there and covered it, live locally, because it was important for me to witness it firsthand. And I. That's one of the things that I kept telling people is that, like, I am, you know, I'm proud. I'm a proud Mexican American. My mom is a Mexican immigrant. My dad was a lifelong hard working class truck driver. And what I said to people was like, bring your flag. Bring the flag of your culture and everything. And bring the American flag, too. Take back the flag from them. Because it is patriotism to be out there. It is patriotic to be out there advocating for due process, the rule of law, individual rights, just freedoms, as you put it, and standing up for your community, for others that are being like, put through the ringer right now and standing by each other. But I, and I didn't. And the reason I kept saying that was because I didn't. I didn't want to give the Trump team the opportunity to exploit it. Right. They want those images where they don't have the American flags and then they flash the Jan Six Flags and it's all American and MAGA and military flags. Like, they want that. And so the juxtaposition. So don't give it to him. Don't give it to him because you're doing is you're standing up for America because America is based. It was built by immigrants. It is a country that is built on our freedoms and our First Amendment and all of these things. And so that to me is like, we are fighting for that and that is what we're doing. Right? And so I think in these moments, I think we kind of like want to make sure that we're not handing it over to them so easily and say, no, actually, we're gonna flip the script on you because I know what you want us to do.
- [58:39]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, it's our effing flag. It's not your effing flag. The other day I saw, I saw a pickup truck drive by and he's got two big American flags in the back. And my initial reaction was, okay, there's a MAGA guy and I go, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. How did the flag become a symbol of their symbol? And no, we cannot allow that to happen. Oliv Olivia Troy, thank you so much for joining me. Thank you so much for your time. It's been really an interesting conversation. I appreciate we have to have you back very, very soon. And again, make sure you look for Olivia's substack and subscribe as quickly as possible. Thank you, Olivia.
- [59:16]
Olivia Troy
Thank you, Charlie.
- [59:18]
Charlie Sykes
And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. We do this. You know why we do this? Because now more than ever we have to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.
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