Paul Rieckhoff: Rise of the Fake Tough Guys

Summary

Podcast Summary: Paul Rieckhoff on "Rise of the Fake Tough Guys"

Podcast Information:

• Title: To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes
• Host: Charlie Sykes
• Episode: Paul Rieckhoff: Rise of the Fake Tough Guys
• Release Date: April 24, 2025

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1. Introduction and Context

In this episode of "To The Contrary," host Charlie Sykes welcomes back Paul Rieckhoff, founder of the Independent Vets of America and host of the "Independent Americans" podcast. The conversation kicks off with a discussion about the ongoing political turbulence, particularly focusing on former President Donald Trump's fluctuating stance on the trade war and his influence over the markets. Sykes highlights the unpredictability of Trump's decisions and their vast economic implications, noting, "[Donald Trump] clearly does not have a plan" (00:30).

2. The Rise of Pete Hegseth and His Impact

A significant portion of the discussion centers on Pete Hegseth, the current Secretary of Defense. Rieckhoff criticizes Hegseth's appointment, describing him as "sloppy and incompetent" (05:45). He delves into Hegseth's background, tracing his roots from "Vets for Freedom" to the "Concerned Veterans of America," an organization funded by the Koch brothers with the agenda to privatize the Department of Veterans Affairs. This trajectory, according to Rieckhoff, was a blueprint for undermining large government institutions, culminating in Hegseth's controversial appointment. He remarks, "They basically would be interviewing themselves about the VA for probably five years or more. That's where Dan Caldwell comes in" (19:03).

3. Internal Chaos and Operational Security Failures

Rieckhoff emphasizes the chaos within the Pentagon under Hegseth's leadership. He cites incidents like Hegseth sending sensitive war plans via a private phone to a chat group that included his attorney and wife, highlighting a blatant disregard for operational security. Addressing this, Rieckhoff states, "It's almost a cartoon version of a security breach where a general gives you specific... and he said, well, no, I didn't do anything" (19:39). The failure to maintain secrecy poses severe risks, as Rieckhoff warns about the potential for enemies like Iran or North Korea to exploit such lapses.

4. The Military’s Response and Professional Concerns

The episode explores the military's internal response to Hegseth's tenure. Rieckhoff mentions that many in the military are professionals who prefer to stay apolitical but are unsettled by the current instability. He notes, "They are spending so much time focusing on internal shit that they can't focus on the actual job, which is the external shit" (28:16). The lack of experienced and vetted leadership has led to uncertainty and a decline in morale, with military personnel yearning for predictability and strong, trustworthy leadership.

5. The Broader Implications for National Security

Rieckhoff underscores the critical nature of national security, asserting, "national security should always be number one, because it's where they have the nukes, period" (34:48). He argues that the politicization of the military and the appointment of individuals like Hegseth jeopardize America's safety. The conversation highlights how internal chaos and poor leadership can lead to disastrous foreign policy decisions, such as the potential invocation of the Insurrection Act or unauthorized military actions like an invasion of Greenland.

6. Potential Changes and Future Outlook

Looking ahead, Rieckhoff discusses possible shifts in leadership. He speculates that Trump might replace Hegseth with someone more stable and historically significant, like Joni Ernst, who could bring a period of stability and restore confidence within the Pentagon. He suggests, "If I'm Trump, I'm dropping Hegseth now because it's only going to get worse" (36:42). However, both hosts acknowledge the unpredictability of Trump's decisions, leaving the future of the Pentagon's leadership uncertain.

7. Concluding Insights and Key Takeaways

The episode concludes with a call to prioritize national security amidst political turmoil. Rieckhoff urges listeners to focus on the critical issues at hand, emphasizing that without competent leadership in the Pentagon, broader national security is at risk. He adds, "If you're worried about education, Social Security, all that is important, but it's less important than nukes and bombs" (35:41).

Charlie Sykes echoes these sentiments, reinforcing the notion that neglecting political stability can lead to severe national and global consequences. The conversation serves as a stark reminder of the intricate link between political actions, military leadership, and national security.

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Notable Quotes

• Charlie Sykes (00:30): "We are working on that. Donald Trump has blinked once again on the trade war... moved by the whim of one man who clearly does not have a plan."

• Paul Rieckhoff (05:45): "Sloppy and incompetent is what I've been saying since before he was even confirmed."

• Paul Rieckhoff (19:03): "They're attacking you with something that you did. You, you up, you're shook. What do you do? Pivot attack. Transgender pivot attack."

• Paul Rieckhoff (34:48): "National security should always be number one, because it's where they have the nukes, period."

• Paul Rieckhoff (35:41): "If you're worried about education, Social Security, all that is important, but it's less important than nukes and bombs."

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This comprehensive summary captures the essence of the conversation between Charlie Sykes and Paul Rieckhoff, highlighting the critical issues surrounding Pete Hegseth's role as Secretary of Defense, the ensuing chaos within the Pentagon, and the broader implications for national security.

Transcript

[Paul Rykoff]

Foreign.

[Charlie Sykes]

Welcome to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I am Charlie Sykes. We are joined once again by my good friend Paul Rykoff, the founder of the Independent Vets of America and the host of the Independent Americans podcast. Paul, thanks for coming back.

[Paul Rykoff]

Good to be back with you, Charlie. Happy Spring, I guess. Right.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, we're work, we are working on that. So, I mean, we're. This has been another amazing week. As you and I are speaking, it looks like Donald Trump has blinked once again on the trade war. The, the on again, off again trade war. And, and very anxious to tell people, no, no, I am not going to fire Jerome Powell. I wasn't really thinking about that. And of course, the markets, which had been crashing, leap once again. Another indication about how trillions of dollars are being moved by the whim of one man who clearly does not have a plan. Also, and as you know, I don't engage in irrational exuberance, but in my newsletter yesterday, I did make the point, look, you know what, at times like this, we really find out who has guts and who doesn't, who stands up and who runs for the tall grass. And I'm kind of surprised at some of the folks. CBS looks like it is caving in. The executive producer of 60 Minutes says, I'm out of here. At the same time, universities who have been keeping their heads down, all these university presidents, they're pushing back. And I guess maybe the lesson is that many of them were thinking we're too afraid to fight Donald Trump. But Harvard punches Trump in the nose, he bleeds, and suddenly everybody realizes, hey, you know what, you punched the bully and maybe good things will happen. So I'm getting a little bit of the punching the bully vibe this week. You seeing any of that?

[Paul Rykoff]

Yes, and I think it's overdue. I mean, Democrats are still like over indexing with the word fuck as often as they can and trying to sound tough in a way that's just so transparent and authentic. But I think below the radar and now, increasingly in the forefront, there are people who are punching back. And there's one that I've been tracking on, I had on my show, Don Bacon, the Republican retired, retired Air Force general from Nebraska. I think he's a rising star. He won a Republican district and I asked him on my show if he's going to run for president, if he'll leave the Republican Party. He doesn't say no. And I think it's a testament to the fact that his voice is breaking through. There's another one that's emerged this week that I think is going to be very important and powerful. That's Admiral McRaven, who's got a new book out, who I think also could be an independent candidate for president in the future. He's the kind of guy who would be the Secretary of Defense in a normal world, but instead we've got Pete Hegseth. But I think your point about Harvard is critical also, Charlie, because Harvard's got resources. Harvard's got ammunition. Harvard's got real talent. I mean, they can pick apart Harvard however they want, but that's where presidents and, you know, leaders of the CIA and the military and every other organization in America come from, and they've got a ridiculous endowment. So if you're going to take on the president, Harvard's pretty well positioned to actually do that in terms of talent and resources. And maybe this is setting a new pace as we go into what is sure to be a hot and insane summer.

[Charlie Sykes]

Okay, so I want to get to the Secretary of Defense in just a moment. But on this issue of Harvard, I was driving late the other night and listening to Carol Lennon from the Washington Post, who was on the Stephanie Rule show, and she said she's fascinated by watching the Trump administration's reaction to the Harvard pushback because, you know, they've gotten kind of used to everybody rolling over all the white shoe law firms, the other universities and everything, and they screwed up over the weekend. It seems the Trump administration sent them this, you know, this, you know, burn it all down memo and then, you know, tried to say, no, no, no, that was sent out by mistake. We didn't really mean it. Harvard basically saying, fuck you, we're going public with this. We're pushing back on you. And the what Carol Lennox said was that the Trump administration's behavior since then has been very interesting. You know, rather than escalate, well, they have escalated. But their immediate reaction was she said, and this dates everybody star 68, please call me back. We didn't really mean to send all that. So it's an interesting straw in the win. But let's talk about Pete Hegseth. And you mentioned Don Bacon, and Don Bacon, who is the one Republican in Congress who is saying, this is ridiculous, this is absurd. The guy's an amateur. He should resign. He brings a certain amount of clout to this as a retired Air Force general. But as far as I know, as you and I are speaking right now, Don Bacon is the only Republican in Congress to be talking about this. I mean, this has been a story of the year. Right. How Congress has basically turned itself into potted plans, so it does not look like they'll push back. But let's talk about Pete Hegseth. You know, a lot of these guys. So. So let's just dive into this. I mean, how toxic and bizarre is what's happening in the Pentagon. Now we can talk about the signal chats, which I think are in and of themselves disqualifying. But the chaos, the finger pointing, the backbiting. I mean, I don't know that anybody's ever seen anything like this. You watch it more closely. Your take.

[Paul Rykoff]

We have never seen anything like this. This is absolutely true. Sloppy and incompetent. Sloppy and incompetent is what I've been saying since before he was even confirmed. And chaos is the result of that. But I want to go back to something if I can. Yeah, they're also full of shit, Charlie. And that's what's starting to come apart here too. Because as they attack Harvard, Harvard's also the place where Tom Cotton came from. Right. Pete Hegseth can rail against the Ivies. He went to Princeton. Okay? He played basketball at Princeton. So I think there's a part of this that was about the look and the feel and the cast performative. And now America's starting to realize that they don't actually like it. And that's true with Kristi Noem standing in front of prison cells, which is like 2025 Abu Ghraib all over again. They don't like Pete Hegseth with his tough talk and his sloppiness. And they don't like Cash Patel not being at the FBI and handling the ATF and instead hobnobbing with Dana White at UFC fights. So I think authenticity is really, really important, especially right now in American politics. And it's something that they won on, but a lot of it was fake authenticity. And there's no place that pulls apart bullshit faster than, than our national security world, our enemies and the Pentagon. And the Pentagon is just such a fantastic and efficient and effective and non political organization that when you stick somebody like Hegseth, who I warned was not just incompetent and sloppy, but the most politically radical and the most political secretary of Defense we've ever had, this is what happens, right? And all the bad things about Trump world, where people don't really have loyalties to anything except themselves and their self interest, they're not experienced, they don't know how to work in bureaucracies, they've never really been scrutinized. And vetted before. All that's coming together around not just Pete Hegseth, but his second and third level. You've got people who've never worked in the Pentagon, who aren't former flag grade officers, who don't have relationships with the people that they're trying to manage. So if you had somebody like an Admiral McRaven or if you had even a Tom Cotton, right, who had been in the Senate, who knew the people in the building, you'd have a very different situation. And the most important thing to remember, Charlie, is I know folks are feeling Social Security threats. I know you're seeing the market. But remember this. Pete Hegseth has the nukes, right? Pete Hegseth and his gang of slots, right? And you have to remember that any given day there could be an engagement with Iran. There could. Things can go sideways with an ally. Putin can escalate. North Korea is firing off missiles, American troops are all around the world and could be targeted. And it's Pete Hegseth that's gonna get the phone call. So I think we do have to remember that that is how high the stakes are. And it's more important than everything else, right? Outside of Trump himself and whether he's got his finger on the button, what's happening at the Pentagon can't just be dismissed as some kind of like, you know, Washington D.C. normal drama. This is absolutely critical and endangering our national security every day because we didn't have a chairman of the Joint Chiefs for about three months. We had all the senior leadership that was actually purged. And it's kind of getting twisted now where some folks are saying these people who worked close to Hegseth were purged. This is very different. The actual purge is continuing to happen.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right?

[Paul Rykoff]

And that's moving people who are not loyalists to Trump and and Hegseth across the military. People like the colonel in Greenland who spoke out against JD Vance for his charade of a debacle in visiting Greenland. It's people like all the senior JAG officers, the legal officers at the Pentagon. It was General Hawk, the head of Cyber Command, right? Don't get lost in all the squabbling and the drama and whether or not Pete Hegseth is drunk and forget about the fact that this entire organization has been dismantled and hollowed out and disrupted and they don't like it. And they are going to push back however they can. But to some extent, Charlie, they don't even have to because they're eating their own. And that's the culture that Pete Hegseth has created. It's not one of experience, it's not one of loyalty, it's not one of bipartisanship. And this is the result of all of that. So the question becomes, at what point is it too painful for Donald Trump and for our country where he makes a move? And I don't know if he's going to, because Pete Hegseth, as I told you last time, was his big first shot. If he could get Pete Hegseth, radical Pete Hegseth, jam him through, then everything else became easy. And it was true. Then Kristi Noem was easy. Cash Patel was easy. Right? And if Hegseth goes down, then he's got to ask hard questions about Kristi Noem, about Cash Patel, and it kind of comes apart. So I don't think that Trump is going to be quick to get rid of Hegseth. He's going to try to agree. He's going to dig in, he's going to ride this horse as long as he can, because it might create a bit of a breakage, right? It might break a seal, if you will, especially among Republicans. Not just Don Bacon, but Joni Ernst, for example, who was the critical vote on Pete Hegseth? You know, where is Joni Ernst now? What does she think of this mate? That she could have stopped Tom Tillis, Right? They have to be held accountable, and that's where we are right now. Charlie.

[Charlie Sykes]

You know, what's interesting is I was listening to some commentary about why more Republicans are not speaking out about Pete Hegliff. Because, as you point out, in a normal, rational world, Pete Hegseth would be gone. I mean, for. For one reason or another.

[Paul Rykoff]

He would never be there to begin with. Right?

[Charlie Sykes]

We would never. Exactly. You know, we don't live in that environment. And it really comes down to Donald Trump. You know, it's people saying, you know, what. What should we look for? What, pressure points? No, when Donald Trump decides that he's a liability or an embarrassment, that's when he goes. But not before that. But what I thought was interesting was one of the reasons that was given for Republicans not speaking up like Don Bacon, you know, has done in saying that Higgs has got to go, is they worry that whoever replaces him might actually be worse. Now, get your head around that.

[Paul Rykoff]

I don't think that's true, Charlie. Yeah, I think that's an important one to hold on, right? Let's. Let's look for president with Trump, right? Do you remember when he nominated Ronnie Jackson to be VA secretary, his Pimp pushing, very radical political doctor who's now become a loyalist, maybe second only to, like, somebody like Tuberville. Right? But he put up a very radical, unqualified, morally compromised person in Ronnie Jackson. John Tester, the Democrat from Montana, who is the head of the Veterans Affairs Committee, fought it like hell and paid for it. Ultimately, Trump never forgot Ronnie Jackson never forgot. They came back and took Tester out or helped take Tester out. But after that, you know, he went with, with. With Dave Shulkin, right? He went with Robert Wilkie. He went with people that were less partisan, that were more practical, that were more operatives, right, Than. Than radical bomb throwers. So I, I think what comes after Hegseth will probably not be another Hegseth. You know, it could be someone like, well, maybe, yeah, but it could also be someone like General Kane. Right? General Kane. You know, we could have gotten a lot worse than General Kane for, for chairman of the Joint Chiefs, right? We could have gotten Mike Flynn, we could have gotten Mike Flint. He could have tried that. Mike Flynn, as chairman of the Joint Chiefs, would have been as radical as Pete Hegseth, the SecDef. And I think that's important to underscore here is that we still don't know how Kaine is going to shake out. 25 Democrats did vote against him, but only 25. Right. And that's starting to take shape. So I think Kaine is the one to watch here. Like, can he be Millie 2.0? Can he hold the line, or is he going to be compromised? Is he going to just fall in lockstep? And most of these guys who are coming out against Hegseth are also gunning for the job. Right? They are known entities in the political space. They worked at Concerned Veterans of America. They all probably think they can be SecDef, too, and they want to keep that proximity to Trump. So you see, for example, Dan Caldwell's going on Tucker Carlson Show. He's talking directly to the President, which is what Trump world does. They talk directly to the president and, and try to show him, hey, look how good I am. Look at how effective I am. Look at how tough I am. And if he likes you on tv, he might put you in a new job. So all that is to say, Charlie, we're going into Memorial Day. Memorial Day is like a month away, right? And we've got very serious national security problems. And every day, Pete Hegseth is in that job, America's less safe. And I think, and I hope that some rational Republicans will start to peel Away, if only because Hegseth is not going to stop giving us crazy news every day. No, gonna be more shit. And it's going to be more crazy because it would have been that way.

[Charlie Sykes]

It'll come from within the house too. Yeah.

[Paul Rykoff]

Even if his team held the line, we were getting crazy shit. Right. So now imagine what's going to happen when two of his closest advisors for the last 10 years have turned against him. It's going to be some interesting news in the next week or so. Charlie.

[Charlie Sykes]

So. So tell me about these guys, because I'm not familiar with them because this was extraordinary. He brings in his hand pick a. Worked with for years, and he basically guillotines them over this legal investigation. They are, they're not going quietly. We have that op ed piece in Politico, you know, saying what, you know, months for from hell. So who. Give me your sense, because you've worked with some of these guys. What is this cast of characters? Because, you know, as we talk about the ongoing purge, this, this chaos at the top of the Pentagon, it all flows from Pete Hegseth. So who are these guys? Why were they there? Why are they gone?

[Paul Rykoff]

So I think this all has to go back to the Pete Hegseth origin story. Right? Where does Pete Hegseth come from? And I co authored an op ed with Pete Hegseth many, many years ago when he was much more moderate. He wasn't in Trump's camp. He was much less radical. You know, Pete came from, from two organizations. The first was Vets for Freedom, which was basically a pro Iraq war group that wanted to continue the Iraq war. So it was kind of me and anyone else who was moderate or anti war were opposite him. Right. We fought in public and in private and in the Hill for years. Then the Koch brothers created Concerned Veterans of America, which was almost entirely focused on privatizing the va, Right? Saying that the Department of Veterans affairs is a failed agency, therefore it should be privatized. It was very ideological, politically radical view to basically rip the VA down to its studs, send it out in the private market and make it a proof of concept for how the larger government should be privatized. So it was actually kind of like a blueprint for doge. Right. Like all the things that they're doing now started with cba and that was tens of millions of dollars to create an organization and create this, this, this entity that had Pete Hegseth on top, which then he also used to go to Fox News. So even when he went to Fox News, you'd have him at Fox News and then you'd have guys at CBA on Fox News. So they basically would be interviewing themselves about the VA for probably five years or more. That's where Dan Caldwell comes in. Darren Selnick was another operative in that group. John Aliott, who's the spokesman who wrote the op ed and Politico, he's adjacent to that world, too. He was Robert Wilkie's spokesperson at the VA in the first term. Also a pretty politically extreme guy. So now they've all kind of like jumped from, from first base to home plate, right? They were working in the veteran space. They were doing battle on cable news with guys like me and, and moderates and Democrats. And then they end up literally in, in the circle at the Pentagon, which is not something we ever would have imagined, Charlie. I mean, when the Koch brothers cook this up and put somewhere over $100 million into this effort over a decade ago, I think they were reasonably hoping maybe they could make change at the va. Maybe pie in the sky, they would get a VA secretary, right? That's where we thought Hegsett might end up, but he would have to go through vetting. So we thought, you know what? He would probably end up Chief of Staff at the White House or maybe Pentagon spokesperson, somewhere where he wouldn't have to be vetted. But now we're in this almost doomsday scenario where they've run the table and he's a Secretary of Defense. Every time I talk to people, I just came back from Coronado, California, where the Navy Seals are headquartered. A lot of Navy Seals Special operations folks out there. I mean, the word is like, holy shit. Heg said the sec. Dev, how the fuck did this happen, right? And now people are trying to figure out how they can do business with him, how they can influence him. Is he going to be reasonable? But I think you have to go back to that origin story and anyone who's listening, Charlie, there should be investigative pieces, go into how this all started. Where did PETEXF go from Princeton to Vets for Freedom to CBA to Fox News, to then having the proximity and the influence over Trump and now graduating to the ultimate championship, which is the Secretary of Defense. There is no bigger chess piece on the chessboard, Charlie, in my view, outside of the White House than the Pentagon. And it's important to know that this was the plan all along, like over a decade ago. Hundreds of millions of dollars, but they. I don't even think in their hearts of hearts they would. They thought they would win this much. And that's why it's so dangerous.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, it is so. It is so dangerous. You know, and I, you watch how he's handling this, how he's handling the stress. Caught basically red handed sending war plans on his, on his phone, private phone, to a, to a chat group that includes his private attorney and his wife. And he's asked about that on Fox News because of course it's on Fox News. And he immediately pivots to talking about transgenderism. I mean, it's, it's. The, the man is so clearly not suited for the moment. So, okay, let's just deal with this because of the glitch, right?

[Paul Rykoff]

It's like, it's, it's, it's also like how he's designed Charlie, right?

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes, right, right.

[Paul Rykoff]

They're attacking you with something that you did. You, you up, you're shook. What do you do? Pivot attack. Transgender pivot attack. DV dei. It's literally like how he was built in the CVA lab and refined over Fox to keep calling that play. And that's why he kind of looks almost like a robot having a malfunction.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right?

[Paul Rykoff]

It's like he goes directly back to it because that's the limit to his bandwidth. And also really important around the signal chat issue. Charlie, this is what happens when you don't have trusted senior military leaders around you, right? People who say, hey, sir, why the fuck do you have your phone out right now? Hey, sir, is that your civilian phone? Right. Why are you using that? You shouldn't be doing that. You usually have a group of colonels who are non promotable around you, who will always tell you the truth, who will always keep you accountable, and this is what happens when you don't. And I want to again emphasize Charlie. Remember, if they're not telling him not to go off his personal phone, they're not telling him, I don't know, to have a meeting with Elon Musk about China. They're not telling him not to take a strike or to go around a policy or to commit a war crime or to engage an enemy target. It can be so much worse than just spilling operational security secrets on signal. And I think we're gonna find out in the next couple of days. It's probably been worse.

[Charlie Sykes]

You know, you make a really interesting point about the bandwidth of these guys, actually. You know, so many members of the cabinet are there because they were on Fox News. I mean, they are there. Their origin story is they were talking heads on, on, on cable television, which means. And when you're on cable television and we've both done this, there are these little short, you know, sound bites, there are these memes, these narratives, the cliches that you might use. You don't have to have, if you're on, if you're Pete Hegseth or Kristi Noem, you don't have to have a thought that's more than two minutes long. And what you're seeing is that that's what you get from the secretary of Defense. He's still a talking head on Fox News. Who knows which book, which buttons to push. Doesn't know. I mean, hopefully it's not a nuclear button. But he, but, but he knows which issues are. I mean, it's, you can see the talk show host going through his head, what do I want to talk about? I got to go back to my talking points about DEI and trans. When people are going, wait, did you actually text information about a bombing run in Yemen to your wife? So this is, there's also another piece.

[Paul Rykoff]

Charlie, that's maybe most important. Right. One of my mentors was the great Les Gelb, who was the head of the Council on Foreign Relations.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah.

[Paul Rykoff]

And he used to say to me, most people can't do strategy. Most people can't do strategy. And what you see here with Hegseth is he can't do strategy. Right. He's not Bob Gates, he's not Mike Mullen, he's not Dick Cheney. Right. He's not a person that has spent his life executing complex plans toward a long term goal and overseeing the execution and the management and the leadership around those things.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right.

[Paul Rykoff]

If you want to do something like expand into Europe or take on a strategic threat like Russia, or confront three enemies at one time, what while you're, you have, you know, domestic unrest here at home. Strategy is about putting the pieces together and thinking about not just what's happening, but what's happening next and having the ability that, and he doesn't have that Gnome doesn't have it. Cash Patel doesn't have it. But there is a broader strategy, and Bannon and others who have this, this strategy to take over the government, to rip down the studs. And this is where I'm going to challenge a lot of the liberals that I see on msnbc. It's not about the tax cuts. People keep saying, oh, it's just about tax cuts. That is too dismissive. It is too small. It is not about tax cuts. It's about taking over America. And it's about using that as A lever to take over the world. Okay. It's not just about the tax cuts. The tax cuts are just part of the strategy to ensure you get the support from the people who are impacted by the tax.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah, they're more like, they're more like. No, I, I, I, I completely agree with you. That's kind of like the atmospherics. You know, Republicans cut taxes. They have always done that. But guys like Russ Vote are really focused on something very, very different. And the MAGA base is animated by a lot of other things. So, again, you know, these are some folks who I don't think have paid attention to all of it. Okay, I'm sorry. On the signal chat, the reason why I haven't spent much time talking about it is because it seems so black and white to me that there's no question you're talking about classified information. It is the worst imaginable, almost a cartoon version of a security breach where a general gives you specific, like, the planes are taking off and this is where they're going. And this chode turns around, cuts and pastes this and sends it to, you know, his friends and family. And he said, well, no, I didn't do anything. It's like, no, come on. No officer at any level, the Defense Department would be able to do something like this and have their career survive. None. Right. I. This is not a hard question. Right? I mean, I'm not. But.

[Paul Rykoff]

But I think it's important to not echo their language in the way you challenge it, because here's the most important question to ask. Did you disclose anything that could have gotten anyone hurt?

[Charlie Sykes]

Right.

[Paul Rykoff]

If the answer is yes, you're wrong. Whether it's a war plan or it's classified or it's degree of classification, everybody learns at the most basic level of the military. Loose lips sink ships. Don't put anything in your letter home to mom or your email to your girlfriend that could potentially get someone hurt and killed. And if Pete Hegseth had to answer the question, is anything that you disclose something that could potentially hurt or kill someone? The answer is obvious. That's why. That's the question that needs to continue to get hit on him, on Trump, on anyone else who wants to try to blur the lines and play a rhetorical game or, or categorizing the language. This is very fucking basic. Very, very basic.

[Charlie Sykes]

Very basic. I mean, I sort of remember the historical cliche from World War II that, like, the worst thing that you would do would be to write the letter home to mom saying, I'm on A troop ship that is leaving Brooklyn on May 1st at 10:00 in the morning. No, no, no, no. You do not ever say when the ship is leaving. And here you have Pete Hegseth, you know, on his phone going, the bombers are taking off at this time. Like, no, this is almost, it is, it is class.

[Paul Rykoff]

Okay, so you've touched on and important to know, Charlie. I've some craven and other people have been really good on this in the last couple of days. I'm going to encourage everyone to listen to everything McRaven says. Listen, if Mike Mullen starts to speak out, listen to him, listen to these people who deal in this world and also have an ability to articulate it very effectively, very clearly. Somebody like Admiral McRaven, Mike Mullen, they're used to going on Meet the Press, but also explaining it to a 19 year old private. And that's a really, really unique talent. But it's important right now and it's important to emphasize the Chinese have it too and the Russians have it too. And imagine what else they have on Pete Hegseth and any other number of people around him that were also exposed by him. Because I've emphasized this before, Charlie, every single member of, of the cabinet that was on that signal chain is wrong. They were wrong for even being on it. And there were no active duty military people on there because if there were, they would have said, hey everybody, why the fuck are we on here? Let's get off here. So it's a culture of sloppiness, but it's also a culture of vulnerability and it's bigger than them. So be careful about rooting for them to go down because when they go down, our security secrets go down and, and our entire country is less safe.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, and it's important for these, the generals and the admirals to speak out because the people who are serving in the military cannot do so. Right. They need to be the voice of the people who are you were, you know, talking to or going, how the hell can Pete Hegseth be the Secretary of Defense? So what is the mood? What are people within the military who know they can't push back politically against any of this? How are they reacting to this? How are they? Because before the election, I think there was a sense that a lot of people in the veterans community in the military thought that Trump would be their guy, that he would have their back. Obviously that's not true. But what is the reaction in the rank and file, and I also mean in the officer corps to the purges and to the insanity, what do you hear?

[Paul Rykoff]

Most people in the military are professionals who want to serve and they don't want to get involved in politics right now. There's always going to be a percentage of the military. That's just like America. Like most of the military is like America. You're going to have people who watch Fox News and love Donald Trump. You're going to have people who watch MSNBC and love Rachel Maddow and Hillary Clinton. That's a part of our society. But they understand when they cross that line and go to the military, a level of professionalism is expected. And I think what I see most of all is that they feel like they are spending so much time focusing on internal shit that they can't focus on the actual job, which is the external shit, meaning there's a war happening in the Pentagon, so we're not focused on the real wars. Right. And there's a feeling of uncertainty, of unsettling. People want predict, just like in the markets, Charlie. Right. They want predictability, they want stability, they want clarity, they want strong leadership they can trust. And I bet you half the Pentagon is thinking, maybe Hexeth won't make it through the week. So imagine how your job would be if you don't know if the boss is going to make it through the week. That level of tumult and instability is maybe what's most important to focus on because the Secretary of Defense has to provide stability and strength and clarity and comfort to some extent that I'm going to take care of the politics. You guys focus on the war fighting, you focus on the national security piece and I'll deal with the senators, I'll go testify, you guys go deploy around the world, train and, and be ready to kill bad guys. So when those two worlds collide, I think it is most dangerous to our national security and something we've never seen in the history of the all volunteer military. Charlie. In Trump's first term, I warn he was politicizing the military in a way that was opportunistic for him. Effective politically, but terribly damaging, not just to our national security, but to our democracy. Right. He's hurting the public image of the military. He, he's hurting recruiting, he's hurting retention. It's not a safe place to be anymore. Right. And that's what's most damaging. And that's what has our enemies celebrating the most. So the mood is unstable, it's concerning. There's some folks who are, hey, I'm just going to do my job, keep My head down. But there are a lot of them who don't know if he's coming for them, especially if you're a woman, if you're a person of color, if you worked on anything in hr, if you did anything around diversity, which is almost everybody, because it's the most diverse organization on the planet. So I think whatever they do next, the number one thing we need is stability. And I hope that Trump, somewhere in there, whether it's his own political preservation or because he wants to prioritize it, he will find a way to create some kind of stability, because that's what we need most.

[Charlie Sykes]

You know what? I think that's the. I think stability is the least likely scenario because, you know, among the things that are still out there. No, Donald Trump is itching to invoke the Insurrection Act. I mean, he's got a deadline. He's got to decide whether to invoke the Insurrection act on the border. Not clear that he's going to do that. Things have calmed down there. But one of the reasons why he has these loyalists like Pete Hegseth in place is because he doesn't want anyone to say no. If he does invoke the Insurrection act, which he wants to do. If he wants to invade Greenland, he does not want some general saying, Mr. President, we cannot invade Greenland. So, you know, I don't think that stability in any part of the government is on the bingo card for Trump. He likes the chaos. He likes.

[Paul Rykoff]

I think that's right. But I will also say this. Trump is on strategy. Trump had a strategy. Trump had a timeline. Trump had goals. And if anything, he's ahead of schedule. Right. And what's fucking it up is Hegseth right now, right? Hegseth Is it up? Hegseth got through first. Things were looking good. We got rid of the chairman with Joint Chiefs. We got rid of all the officers. Things were kind of flying. But right now, Hegseth is up their momentum, and he's up what had been the most successful part of their strategy so far. And as I've continued to emphasize, everything they do at the Pentagon is the model for everywhere else. Right? They're gonna ban books at the Pentagon first. They're going to remove trans people at the Pentagon first. They're going to remove abortion access at the Pentagon first. They're going to try to tackle migrants with the Pentagon first. They're going to rip through the contracts and the budgets and find ways to profit at the Pentagon first. So when your lead element is getting sidetracked, it Cascades across this. But I want everyone to understand, even with these fuckups, Trump is ahead of schedule on the Pentagon and he's doing well by his standards. And don't dismiss that, don't underestimate it. And keep in mind that he can do things like tonight, he could drop bombs on Iran. He could do things like deploy more active duty to the border where they now have arrest authority because he's taken 60 yards or so of land on the border in three states where they can now make an exception to the prohibited to the prohibition of active duty troops detaining someone. So now there's a small strip of land on the border where active duty troops can detain migrants. That's a step forward. The Insurrection Act, I think, is. Is not focused on enough because what it means is he can deploy U.S. troops on U.S. soil. Right? That's the most important thing to understand. He can do it for whatever reason he wants. Right? It can be because he wants to protect Tesla dealerships. It can be because he says that there's a migrant threat. It can be because he can say that these protests happening every week are, are filled with antifa. Right? And that's why the Insurrection act is so important. He got a recommendation back from the Pentagon and how they would execute it on April 20, three days ago. Thankfully, Noam and Hegseth reportedly did not recommend he invoke it now. But he does now have the plan. He has the plan on his desk and he has the ability to try it any day now. And I think that's what people should focus on in the midst of all the other drama and chaos. This is one of the biggest, most extreme, most dangerous things because it means young men and women in maybe the most difficult mission we've ever seen. Iraq and Afghanistan is going to look easy compared to asking a 19 year old to go down to the border and stop migrants. Or even worse, to go get migrants in schools and do things like ICE is already doing. Right? So think about the doomsday scenario or a possible scenario where, where instead of ice, it's active duty military. And think about the active duty military who say hell no. And think about the division in our military.

[Charlie Sykes]

Will there be some. Will there be some who say hell no?

[Paul Rykoff]

I think there will be. I think there will be some. Will there be a lot? I don't know. But I think we'll also see a wave of kind of Colonel Vindmans who say, I'm not down with this. You know, the ones who can speak out will retired folks Will, but it can also happen pretty quickly. And. And I think that's what we have to understand is that, you know, people are often, you know, quibbling and squabbling and whining, and it's already rolling. So we're going to really need our active duty professional military and the folks that are left to hold the line more than ever. But we're also going to need the American people to focus on the right things. And most of all, Charlie, if I leave folks with one thing from this conversation, national security should always be number one, because it's where they have the nukes, period. Remember that. If you're worried about education, Social Security, all that is important, but it's less important than nukes and bombs.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, you know what? That's one of the arguments people say, you know, I just want to check out of politics. You know, I don't want to spend as much time thinking about it. And the problem is, is that, you know, if you don't get the politics right, you've turned over the nukes to some pretty bad people. Okay, you made a really, really important point here. And I've been thinking about this. The kind of split screen the rust vote project 2025 plan is actually, let's be honest about it. I mean, they had a plan. They've been executing this plan. They've been executing it much more in a very targeted way, in a very rapid way. In most of the cases, even though you have clowns involving it, there's been a certain the focus. The exception is Pete Hegseth who is undermining or potentially undermining everything because of his incompetence. And this is the case that you're starting to see from inside Trump world, saying, Mr. President, this guy is hurting your agenda. So I guess the question is.

[Paul Rykoff]

Do.

[Charlie Sykes]

You think Hegseth hangs on? Does Hegseth hang on or not? And what will Trump's calculation be if he sticks with him?

[Paul Rykoff]

The short answer is, I don't know. Right. And I think there's too many people, especially on the network we're on a lot, who have this certainty about what Trump thinks and how he feels. We don't fucking know. And I don't know. And I don't want to assume to know, but I know that we should plan for every eventuality. Right. And I think the contrast I want to draw to people that they're not tracking on is Pete Heck said this at the Pentagon, there's kind of a thunder and lightning combo. And over at the Department of Veterans affairs, the second largest bureaucracy in the federal government. You've got someone who's equally radical, equally loyal, equally effective, if not more named Doug Collins. And he's kind of a much lower key. Hegseth, I've called him kind of like a Southern Foghorn Leghorn version of Hegseth. Right. And he's a former pastor, he's a member of Congress, he's an operator, and he is slowly and methodically, much less fancifully winning. Okay. And. And you've got this contrast. So, you know, if. If I'm Trump, like, let's turn the table. Let's be. Let's be Trump for a second. I'm looking for somebody like Doug Collins. I'm looking for. Maybe it's Tom Cotton. Maybe it's someone else who can come in and add stability, give some degree of comfort to the people who just want anything other than Hegseth, and then get this back on track. So I think from a practical standpoint, if I'm Trump, I'm dropping Hegseth now because it's only going to get worse. And I would make the change. I would pick someone like Joni Ernst, who is a histor, would be a historic pick. Right. Who would be a woman, the first SecDef that's a woman we've ever had. And that would give her a honeymoon period where people would be so excited about the historic nature of her nomination that she would get more grace and she'd look awesome compared to Hegseth. So that's a switcheroo they can do. Here is after Hegseth, everything looks good. So if I'm Trump, I drop Hegseth as soon as possible, stop the pain, put somebody else in there and get things back on track.

[Charlie Sykes]

I agree with you to an extent, but the one thing is that. And the reason why you have the people in the positions they are is that they will never push back. They will never say no. They never will have a conscience or a tradition that they will use to challenge Donald Trump. Now, a Tom Cotton, a Joni Ernst, and by the way, I'm not carrying water for them. Unlike a peak Hegseth, I mean, these people have a little bit of substance. They have. They have some tradition. There are certain lines.

[Paul Rykoff]

So did Rubio, and he's just folding right. Like Rubio is. Well, that's true.

[Charlie Sykes]

You know. You know, we could devote a whole show.

[Paul Rykoff]

There's a line of people who want to be Secretary of Defense, and there's such a long line. They're dying for the job. And that's what's really true here. You know, they're always eating their own. And. And you've got everybody from Laura Loomer to, you know, his former spokesperson. All these chefs are in the kitchen now.

[Charlie Sykes]

Good point.

[Paul Rykoff]

Right. And I think it all looks good compared to Hegseth, and it's all going to. And the other part, too, Trump knows tv. Hegseth looks shook. He looks shook on tv. He's not being good at. The one thing he's really, really good at is a great point. Right. And so when that happens, you know, when you're a home run hitter who doesn't hit homers, I'm making a switch in the lineup.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yeah. Again, in a normal, rational universe, this makes complete sense. But Donald Trump, you just never know. On the other hand, it is clear that he pays attention to a few things. He pays attention to the markets. You know, he's backed off. I mean, he really was kind of extraordinary in the last 48 hours or so, watching Donald Trump scurry back on the Jerome Powell thing, watching him basically begin to blink about China. The question is, you know, will he also pay attention to the Supreme Court? I guess the question is there are some things that Trump listens to. If somebody tells him, this is really, really bad for you. This is really, really dangerous for you. And that, of course, is the message that you are giving Paul Rykoff. It is always great to chat with you. I always appreciate it. We'll have to do this again soon. Thanks for coming on.

[Paul Rykoff]

Thank you, Charlie. If I can make a plug, I want to encourage everybody to check out my podcast. I've had some really great conversations on this. Don Bacon was on the show. I asked him if he was going to run for president, which he leaves the door open about. I had Gary Kasparov, the chess master, on to talk about Ukraine and the macro strategy. And we've started a new series this week on Meet the Independent Candidates. And I interview the the real independent who's running for mayor, Jim Walden in New York City, not Eric Adams, who's decided he's independent this week. But I continue to believe, Charlie, there's a generation of especially veterans who are running as independent candidates who can offer some hope and some stability. And a lot of my work is focused on that. And if folks are looking for hope and stability and competence, I think veterans in particular and independent veterans who are running for office represent a lot of potential. So I hope folks can check that out. Please.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, from your lips to God's ear, Paul, and thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. You know why we do this? You know why we do this every single week? Because now, and I feel like I want to say this week in particular, it's important to remember that we are not the crazy ones.