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- [00:00]
Charlie Sykes
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Paul Rykoff
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Charlie Sykes
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Paul Rykoff
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- [01:24]
Charlie Sykes
Well, here we are again. I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. We are joined by our good friend Paul Rykoff, who of course is a veteran of Iraq, but also the host of the Independent Americans podcast and president of the Independent Veterans of America. Look without more prelude here, Paul, you having a feeling of deja vu? We're having. We are once again at war in the Middle East. Your thoughts?
- [01:53]
Paul Rykoff
It would be deja vu, except this is much worse in a lot of reasons. You know, there's a heat wave hitting New York and we were prepared for a hot summer in America, one full of turmoil and division. But here, nukes are involved, right? And you know, we could talk about Iraq, we can talk about Afghanistan, but when nukes are involved and Israel is so actively involved, and our domestic politics are so rife with division and instability, and, you know, Russia's invading Ukraine, the stakes are higher than any other time in our lifetime. And I think you find that you hear that in every election, but I think it's going to be true of every war indefinitely because the world is unstable right now and America is unstable. And America is no longer the thoughtful, trusted leader to guide the rest of the world through this. And even maybe more importantly, Charlie, they don't have to ask for our permission anymore, whether it's because they don't respect us, because we're too distracted, because it's an America first agenda, because they don't trust Trump. Israel didn't ask for our permission, and they don't have to get our permission to pursue Iran. And the same is true with Ukraine and other folks around the globe. America is no longer calling the shots every day. And sometimes that's maybe gonna be for the better if you've got somebody like Trump calling the shots. But in other times, it's a new normal, it's a new normal. And I think it's a new dangerous normal. And as everybody continues to focus on Iran, I'm always thinking about the homeland and I'm thinking about the fact that we're a country of soft targets. We're a country that got lulled a little bit because we didn't get hit much after 9, 11. And here in New York City, just as an example, we have an election tomorrow. We have, you know, hundreds of thousands of people who are going to stand out in the heat at polling sites, and every one of those polling sites is a soft target. So this is worse. I think it's worse. And I think. I don't say that to be an alarmist. I say that to kind of wake everybody up and shake them and say, this is really serious, and it's getting more serious by the hour.
- [04:02]
Charlie Sykes
Well, let's talk about what happened over the weekend, because I had to write. I had to write a piece that said I was wrong. Donald Trump did not blink. He gave us a head fake late last week, Said I was going to take two weeks to make up my mind. Usually with Donald Trump, two weeks means never. It wasn't. And he dropped the big ones. The question is, why do you think he did it? Given. Given the fact that he has railed against endless wars, railed against wars in the Middle east, we. Why did he decide to take this massive gamble, actually gambling his presidency and obviously world security and the security of the United States on this bombing?
- [04:42]
Paul Rykoff
I think, in his view, it was an easy win. Now, that may not be true, but the Israelis were already rolling. They were deeply engaged. And he had an opportunity to get America engaged with minimal or no risk to American service members. It was a chance for him and America. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, it was a chance for him and America to look strong, to flex our military power, to be surgical and precise, and do it at an arm's distance in a way that we've done really, for decades. Now, and I think there's another part of this, Charlie, because there's so much Trump hating. And I'm one of them, right? Like, I think he's a disaster, and I think he's the biggest national security risk we face, but he can still make decisions that are right for America. And this may be one of those cases where it was the right decision to take out what we tried to take out. Right. And to do it in a surgical way. But he did do it the wrong way, and there's no backing out of that. He should have gone to Congress for approval. He should have had a conversation with the American people. Congress has again failed in their obligation to provide oversight and to provide restraint and to represent the voice of the American people. So we haven't had a formal declaration of war since World War II, and that's not a good normal to have. It's bad for our democracy, it's bad for our troops, it's bad for our standing in the world. So, you know, this may turn out to be a fantastic victory for him, but more likely it's going to go sideways. Because it's easy to start wars, it's hard to finish them. We now know that American troops are being hit in the Middle East. I would expect that to continue. And I think also really importantly, Charlie, we've been hearing for decades about Iran's sleeper cells. We're gonna find out how real they are. If they have the ability to activate across Europe, if they have the ability to.
- [06:30]
Charlie Sykes
And we don't know any of those. And we don't know any of those. We don't know what's gonna happen with the Strait of Hormuz. We don't know the impact it's gonna have on the world economy. So when people say that he made the right decision, I just wanna raise my hand and say, okay. But the decision is to set off this entire chain of events. Does anyone think that he understands that chain of events? That he is playing. That he understands what. What is step two? What is step three? What is going to happen? What are the consequences? American presidents since World War II have made one great miscalculation after another. But here we're talking about Donald Trump. Now, unlike in Iraq, where we went to war based on faulty intelligence about weapons of mass destruction, number one, we don't know what the intelligence was. No one bothered to even make the case. He rejected the opinion of his own, his own intelligence community, his own dni. I mean, it's Tulsi Gabbard, you know, fuck that, but he ignored that. We didn't have any congressional debate, any congressional hearings. There was no congressional vote. This was basically one man making this decision unlimited by any other force. So I guess. I guess I have these mixed feelings about it. Number one, Iran's an evil regime. Iran should never have a nuclear weapon. We are better off without them having a nuclear weapon. They have been part of the axis of evil for a very, very long time. Every. The world would be a safer, better place if we had regime change. However, the fact that we are being led into a war by Donald Trump, we do need to underline the fact. Now, there's neocons out there, and I'm not going to name any names, who are saying things like, well, you go to war with the president, you have, well, deep breath here, because who is the president we have going to war with Donald Trump, you know, is not an unknown unknown. We know who Donald Trump is. We know what Donald Trump is capable of. And I think that given the fact that all of these factors that you mention, we ought to approach this with a great deal of caution. So it's not like you can separate out everything else Donald Trump is doing to the Constitution, to civil liberties, what he is doing on a daily basis, and say, yes, but he's right to take the country to war in the Middle east because, I don't know, certain neocons have been itching and lusting for that war for 25 years. And so, yeah, I did quote Bill Kristol here, but I do think it's like, look, people, we say all the time that Donald Trump is not normal, that we can't become numb to all of this, that he is an existential threat to the Constitution and democracy. And so shouldn't Never Trump mean never Trump wars? Shouldn't we actually understand how, Dan, I mean, the only guy that seems to get this is Robert Kagan, who wrote that long piece. Do you understand what Donald Trump will do with the emergency powers that might come from being a wartime president? We don't have to use our imaginations too much, do we? So I am. I am a supporter of getting rid of the nukes. But on the other hand, I am kind of surprised by how squishy some Never Trumpers have become about recognizing the danger of waving the flag behind a wartime president. Donald Trump.
- [09:53]
Paul Rykoff
Well, as an Iraq vet who spent months looking for weapons of mass destruction, hearing the names Kagan and Crystal do give me deja vu. And these might be some guys who might want to sit this one out. But beyond that, I think that there is. Let me pull apart that one part, right? You go to war with the President, you have. Well, this President chose to go to war. That's the difference, Right? It was a choice that he made. Now, in his mind, as demented as it is, he did a cost benefit analysis and he decided that this was good to go. But that does not. That can't be separated from the fact that no matter how it goes, he fucked it up by not getting the support of the American people, by not supporting. Getting the support of Congress, by not getting the support of our allies, about not leading in the way that is required to help mitigate possible risks and how this could go sideways. I've been using this quote a lot that I think comes from Ross Perot, of all people. He said, first commit the country, then commit the troops. That is always the right way to do it. And it's the golden rule of American foreign policy. And I think it's important to understand this moment in the context of his escalatory strategy to blow past all of the guardrails that surround our military and our democracy. This is the next step forward after deploying the National Guard in LA without Congressional approval. And it's the next step after deploying the active duty in LA and in three other states without congressional approval, without a conversation with America, without even so much as press updates. Right. There's no press conferences happening at the Pentagon until yesterday morning at 8am so when Congress failed in their responsibility, and I would argue the American people have failed in many ways, people aren't protesting, they aren't pushing back on this escalation of military force, specifically, in my view, a violation of his. Of his authority. And even if it's not ruled illegal, it's not right. You shouldn't deploy American troops in American cities and put them at tremendous risk without getting approval from Congress in a conversation with the American people. So this is building on the backs of all of that. And, you know, the worst case scenario, the most dangerous course of action is so can he deploy nukes without congressional approval? How far can he go? Right. And I think it's important to undertake that intellectual exercise because at any point we can pump the brakes. At any point we can make him come back and have a conversation with the American people and most importantly, with Congress. The problem is that he owns all houses of Congress right now.
- [12:24]
Charlie Sykes
Right.
- [12:24]
Paul Rykoff
So you're.
- [12:25]
Charlie Sykes
And that's part of it. Yeah. I mean, he. He really is without any guardrails whatsoever.
- [12:30]
Paul Rykoff
So this is the unfortunate Reality we face is that he and the Republicans are taking us into deeper and deeper waters, and the Democrats can't stop them. And that's why we don't know where this is going to go. And over time, if we, for example, get American troops killed in the Middle east, if there are attacks on U.S. soil, you're asking America to trust him in the deployment of our National Guard, in the protection of our homeland. And he doesn't have trust from at least half of this country, which puts our military, especially in the most precarious place possible, where they don't have the support of the people behind them.
- [13:09]
Charlie Sykes
This is my point, which is that if we recognize that Trump is a deeply abnormal president, then the notion of applauding even what you might want as a correct decision if it takes us to war, I just think also that the normalization of the breaking of the law. Now, by the way, I mean, this should be obvious, but under the U.S. constitution, you know, the United States should not go to war except with congressional authorization. Now, obviously, that has been honored in the breach many times since World War II, but at least, you know, President Bush went to the process of going through congressional action. But here's a president who on a regular basis is flouting the law, is ignoring the law, is breaking the law. We have active duty military on the streets of American cities as if the Posse Comitatus act does not exist. And every time he does it, it's sort of like, okay, this is bad, but we move on to the next thing. And here you have a president who didn't even, like, make any pretense of consulting with Congress or getting Congress involved. Leaving that aside, I want to just focus on the other consequences. We have a president who has already shown a willingness to invoke that 1798 Aliens act to which has not been invoked since World War II to go after gang members because they are invading the country. We know that he's about five minutes away from imposing the Insurrection Act. And now at a time of war, think what he could do with the immense powers of the presidency. The worst, the worst little history lesson here. The worst abuses of civil liberties have come during wartime, and it's come from great presidents. You know, Abraham Lincoln, suspending habeas corpus, Habeas corpus, Franklin Delano Roosevelt and turning Japanese Americans and essentially in concentration camps. Woodrow Wilson, who just passed one horrible law after another, the various red scares and the various other abuses. And so if they are capable of gross abuses of power, imagine what Donald Trump would do except we don't need to imagine. And so the threat that existed two weeks ago, like this is a deeply dangerous man. There is a threat to democracy if in fact we are at war, which we are. And Donald Trump then takes to himself all of those wartime emergency powers. It is very close to a worst case scenario. And again, to my never Trump, to my never Trump allies here, you know, what is it you're not seeing about someone that you understand? Because if you understand Donald Trump, you know that you do not want to have Trump wars. So I'm sorry if I'm repeating myself here, but I guess I am surprised how dain the failure to understand because, look, I mean, it's baked in that there have been people who've been lusting for this bombing for 25 years and you finally get what you want. But isn't that the argument that every authoritarian makes, that, okay, we broke that law, but look at the great thing we got for breaking that law. Dangerous road.
- [16:24]
Paul Rykoff
Yes. I mean, we are, we are careening quickly toward the most dangerous courses of action. And I think what I've talked a lot about in the last couple of weeks on the show with our friend Nicole Wallace is there is a stunning failure of imagination in America right now. There's some denial, there's some complicity. There's a lot of echo chamber bullshit from the same people debating the same issues that were debating it 20 years ago when they sent my ass to Iraq on a false pretense. And a lot of our institutions are broken. I've long said that the Republican Party and the Democratic Party are broken. That's why I focus on independence and why half of the country wants neither one of them. But I think when you talk about Trump specifically, I've been trying to throw out what might sound like crazy scenarios, but possible scenarios. I said, what if he didn't want to remove the troops after the parade? What if he said, you know what? I'm just going to keep them here because I feel like the threat level is too high. Who would have stopped him? There are still troops right now in Los Angeles. Right. And most Americans don't know that there are now federal troops in Florida, in Louisiana and in Texas that were welcomed by the governor. But there are at least 700 actively federalized U.S. troops on U.S. soil in now four states. Right. And to all the folks who are so concerned about Second Amendment violations and all the guys who said, I need my guns in case the government comes, this is what it looks like when the government comes, because the government's coming, and it's in the form of ice. But I think what we have to continue to do, Charlie, is anticipate the most dangerous courses of action and also flip the table and be our enemies. Right. And right now, Putin continues to celebrate the division, the overextension. What I look at is China that's just sitting there and moving naval assets closer to Taiwan, hoping that we punch ourselves out on all these types of engagements and continue to degrade our capacity so they can take Taiwan or they can dominate in a way that, you know, might take decades from now. And we're looking in terms of minutes, back to your earlier question. What does Trump want? I think Trump envisions a scenario where the regime in Iran surrenders. Like, I think he really views as his opportunity to knock them out, to totally remove them. And this great deal where he sits down and he gets the sword handed to him in a total and complete surrender. He thinks that's possible. But this is what happens when you have commanders in chief who don't understand the costs of war and who are not held accountable and think that war is easy and it's not. And the lateral expansion of what can happen is something we're only beginning to scratch. Most Americans, like my kids, last day of school is Thursday. People are thinking about July 4th. A lot of people watch the NBA finals. Like, most of America is not yet awake, Charlie. And I think, unfortunately, it usually takes some kind of direct threat here before they wake up. And yes, if there is hypothetically a strike of some kind, terrorist attack anywhere in America in the next couple of weeks, which is possible, he will use that as an. As a reason to lock things down, whether he just locks down the Capitol, if he deploys National Guard troops to every federal building in the country, or he ramps it up even higher. And I think the question we have to ask every elected leader is, what are you going to do to stop him? What are you going to do to slow him down? Because his answer to everything has been, fuck you, I'm going. And he keeps going and he keeps blowing through them, and nothing is.
- [19:59]
Charlie Sykes
And he. And he continue, and he will continue to do so. And of course, you know, that in an emergency, that's when people, you know, the calm voices do not prevail. And all this now, you know, to your point about imagination, which I think is really, really important, and I think we are seeing a failure of imagination right now once again. But one of the things I've learned over the years, my many years of watching these things play out Is, is. And it's sort of the opposite of the news cycle that we live in right now, where everybody's got to have a hot take within the first 15 seconds. What I've learned is give it some time. You need to take not just one beat, but two beats. How is it working out? How is X working out? Well, ask me next week or next month, because these things have a long tail. You know, remember, the withdrawal from Afghanistan looked like it was going well until it didn't. The war in Iraq, you know, looked like it was mission accomplished until it wasn't. The, you know, Afghanistan looked like a quick victory until, well, how many decades later. These things are very, very, very unpredictable. And so in terms of how this plays out, we don't know. The thing about what Donald Trump is, you know, what Donald Trump wants, you're absolutely right. He wants the complete and unconditional surrender. He thinks in terms of it being a television show, though, and that. And I'm not being completely snarky about that because there's a report in the New York Times where he was watching Fox News and was really impressed with the way the Israeli strikes were playing on Fox News and sort of said, I want to be the executive producer of that show. Well, as you know, it is not a television show. It's not something that's going to be over in any, in any short period of time. But the other big question I have about Donald Trump is, you know, he makes the decision. Who is Donald Trump listening to? Who are the adults in the room? What, what is the. Clearly, you had some military planners who did a magnificent job in executing the plan, but who are the people who are influencing him? Is it Fox News host? Is it Pete Hegseth who seems to be somewhat isolated? What do you think? I mean, what is this team around him?
- [22:05]
Paul Rykoff
I think it's a dangerous game. I think it's a dangerous game to try to understand his thought process and how he reaches decisions. But what we do know is there are a lot of inputs, right? And it's everything from Steve Bannon to the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Kaine, to Fox News to Laura Loomer to JD Vance to his wife. Who knows, right? Like, we really don't know. And I think what we have to do is ask him that, right? He has to be held accountable. We have to understand his thought process. He has to make the case for the cost benefit analysis. He has to explain. And this is really, really important because we're already in this. Like, who's winning? What's the score? I was watching a cable news channel talking about, like, are we winning? You don't know. Until 20 years, you don't know.
- [22:48]
Charlie Sykes
Well, exactly.
- [22:49]
Paul Rykoff
And really importantly, right now, there are real human beings right now that are. That might be getting killed. American human beings, Iranian human beings, Israeli human beings. And that gets lost in all this because it's not a TV show. And it becomes very real when American. When Americans are killed and caskets start coming home. And that can happen with one rocket attack. It's already happened because there have been Houthi attacks, there have been missile attacks on American bases. And that is an important part of this, that most Americans didn't know. They didn't know how regularly our bases in Syria and Iraq were being hit with missiles and attempted to be hit by missiles. And that's an important part of this. But I'm going to do a really hard thing. I'm going to ask people to try to remember the humanity and remember there's two groups of people watching this right now, right? You've got people who are watching it like it's a television show. And then you've got moms and dads watching this, whose kids are over there right now. When I deployed to Iraq, my mother sold her tv. She didn't want to watch it. Right? And my dad watched everything. Right? And every time they saw a rocket, they were saying, is that my kid? And I think we have to try to bring it back down to that, because what's happened also since really 9, 11, and especially since Vietnam is it's become a professionalized military where there is very little cost for most Americans, and that is very dangerous. We have not talked enough about how the professional military without a draft is really great for our military, but really bad for our democracy. Because not only is it easy for the President to circumvent Congress, it's easy for him to send other people's kids to war. If everybody watching right now and everybody watching television had kids in uniform, this would be a very different equation. I know I'm asking for a hard thing, but imagine every conversation and every discussion you have in that context. If it's your kid over there, your firstborn is right now in Qatar or in a B2 or potentially in the 82nd Airborne or in the LA National Guard and is stuck between ICE agents and protesters. That social accountability is lost. And it's something that I. And other, you know, military and. And veterans, students and. And. And we kind of tran. We've become translators we're thought leaders in this space. We've been ringing this alarm since after 9, 11, because that's when the real fuck up happened, in my view, Charlie, when, when George Bush said, okay, we're going to go to war, but our military is going to go to war and you're going to go shopping, that set another new normal that is really manifesting itself right now in dangerous ways that create no accountability. And that's a real problem for all of us because this can go sideways. Hopefully, yeah, it'll be over and the Iranians will punch themselves out and they'll have limited resources and the Israelis will continue to rock them as they have been. But the reality is that, you know, war is not predictable and it often goes in directions that you can't anticipate. And that's when you need trust in your leaders and you need transparency and you need cohesion. And maybe I'll bring it all back to this, Charlie. If we could have predicted like this last six months and told Osama bin Laden, hey man, here's what's going to happen in America, this would be a dream for him to have Americans fighting in the streets, to have our allies not trust us, to have all this fraying and ripping of the continuity and the unity of America. This has our enemies celebrating. And that's something I would urge people to think about indefinitely.
- [26:17]
Charlie Sykes
You know, you made so many interesting points there. And I was thinking as you were talking about that moment at which we go to war but everybody else goes shopping, that there is really a dividing line in American history. You look back at World War II and in World War II America was at war. All Americans were at war. We all parted, we. I wasn't alive. They all participated, every single community, every single family. It was, the country was, was at war. In Vietnam, it became much less so, but we had a draft. So we had a lot of people who were taken from different walks of life. But that has changed. This professionalization of the army, which in many ways is very, very positive. It has separated, it has separated the military from daily life or from some of our classes in some communities. In fact, a couple, many years ago I interviewed a guy who wrote, I'm trying to remember what his name was. He wrote a book about his son being a Marine and he comes from an upper middle class academic background. And he was describing how literally no one he knew or hung around with knew anyone in the military. And they thought it was the strangest, most bizarre thing. It was like an alien thing that anybody would choose to go into the military. So that's how it becomes sort of out there, becomes a television show as opposed to the kind of reality that you're discussing. Okay, so a couple of other things that are puzzling to me about all of this, that. So Iran has been absolutely pummeled so far. They are a country of 92 million. So they're not just simply going to roll over. But in theory, they have allies. In theory, China is an ally. In theory, Russia is an ally. They are clearly watching everything that's happening very, very closely. But they turned out to be pretty shitty allies so far. Am I missing something? But I don't know. I haven't noticed Vladimir Putin coming to Iran's aid in any way. The Chinese seem to be kind of elsewhere. What, what's, what's going on there? Why, why are they, you know, I.
- [28:19]
Paul Rykoff
Think this is really, really, really important chart, because here's what I'm going to encourage everyone to consider. Battlefield patience. We are wondering why has Russia not jumped in? This happened two days ago.
- [28:31]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [28:32]
Paul Rykoff
Why has China not. China plans in centuries. Right. And we're in a 20, you know, in a one minute news cycle right now. Right. And this is in many ways the weakness of America right now is that we are so reactive and we are, we are so minute to minute. In the meantime, I would argue, you know, Putin has always been patient. Putin knows that over time Americans will get sick of war. He's hoping we quit on Ukraine. The Chinese are hoping we continue to wear ourselves out because right now there's no cost for them. They can sit this one out. Why put more Chinese resources into Iran? It looks like a bad bet. So their best strategic decision right now, I use, you know, Iran as, I mean, sorry, China as the best example. Just wait, just wait. Watch them all punch each other out. Right. And continue to make investments in Africa. Continue to work on your economy. Continue to move the pieces on the chessboard that nobody seems to be paying attention to. Right. Continue to spook your neighbors right. In the region as Japan and others definitely know what's happening. So I think we have to adjust the timeline and understand that battlefield patience is absolutely critical here. And the Israeli, the Israelis deserve credit here. I mean, they're a great example in executing this mission and especially taking out the air assets and removing some of, some of the military infrastructure around Iran. We forget about the drone strike that happened a couple of, I guess a week and a half ago. Right. That the Israelis executed with, I think, tremendous brilliance. And also consider this, I Think what Israel did in the last few weeks is what they should have done after October 7th. And I actually wrote a piece about it at the time. I said, israel, I know you're wounded, I know you're hurt. Learn from our mistakes, right? Don't go invade the wrong country. Don't get stuck in a quagmire. You know, use your moral high ground because it's going to get squandered quickly. Use it to be strategic and thoughtful and figure out if you're going to hit somebody, hit the right target and make it count and don't get sucked into something else. Israel got sucked into Gaza for, you know, years, right? And now this action. If you just imagine an alternative reality where on October 8th or October 17th, they did this instead of that, right? And they were surgical and strategic and patient and had the world behind them, which they did at the time, and that was squandered, I think it would be a very, very different reality. But for us, even if the President won't do it, even if our Congress won't do it, I ask everybody watching to try to just exercise some strategic patience. When I was in Fort Benning training to be an infantry officer, they would teach you about ambushes. And for example, they'd have somebody throw a smoke grenade across the street, and you throw the smoke grenade, and some people run out immediately and get killed because they didn't wait for the smoke to bellow. And they teach you a really important lesson. They say, wait, let the smoke get thicker. Take, let it take its time. Have some battlefield patience, then move across the street. That's how we as all Americans have to try to approach all of these situations with some battlefield patience. Considering your own skin in the game and think about what's best for our kids. I know that people say it all the time, but what's best for our kids, that should drive this in the midst of all of the 30 second tweets and everything else.
- [31:41]
Charlie Sykes
No, these are great points. And to the question of what Israel should have done after October 7, I heard an analysis last night, or I read an analysis last night that, that, you know, answered the question or tried to address the question, why now? Why go after Iran now? And the. And the explanation was because they could, because of the unique circumstances. So after.
- [32:03]
Paul Rykoff
Here's a really good answer. Maybe because they're ready now, maybe it took this long. Right?
- [32:08]
Charlie Sykes
Well, right. And this is part of the answer is, is that okay, so. So they've taken out Hamas. Remember when the Israelis blew up all the Leaders of Hezbollah with the pagers, the blowing up pagers so they decapitate Hezbollah. There's, you know, Syrian regime change which has essentially opened up a super highway between Israel and Iran. They don't have to worry about crossing Syrian airspace. So there is this unique moment that we have right now that they had to prepare. But again, there are, you know, so many things that are going to happen.
- [32:45]
Paul Rykoff
I haven't heard made much. I hear this in the military community, especially from my friends who are in Ukraine. My friends who are in Ukraine are saying, aren't you glad we learned all those lessons from Ukraine? Aren't you glad now that we got to test Patriot missile batteries and shooting down missiles in Ukraine? Aren't you glad now that we learned about drone defenses around civilian areas? Because I, I've long said that one of the best value adds for America is we get to test all our stuff and we get to learn from them in a real world environment. For years now, American missile systems, American weapons system strategy. Right now, the biggest threat to our homeland, in my view, is, is a drone attack, right? All you got to do is roll a truck up into Times Square and let a hundred drones go. And it looks like a horror movie. And you don't have to imagine it because it happens in Ukraine, it's happening now in Israel, it's happening in other places. So I would remind everybody that this is why we've been saying that investing in Ukraine is so important, because we could test it over there before we needed to use it here.
- [33:47]
Charlie Sykes
Well, I mean, the contrast between what we're willing to do for Israel and what we're willing to do for Ukraine is pretty stark. But, you know, the fact that we have dropped these buster bunker bombs, which I believe that's the first time we've used them in warfare, the 30,000 pound bombs, the fact that we use them in Iran, but we never bombed North Korea, we would never use them in Ukraine. Look, the lessons of the world are right. I mean, the lessons the rest of the world is, you know what, if you don't have nukes, you are at the mercy of the superpowers. The only reason that Donald Trump is not going to go into North Korea, that he won't do it against China, he wouldn't use, he wouldn't go up against China in Taiwan, he's not going to go up against Russia and Ukrainians, because these are nuclear powers. I think we, in one case after another have incentivized every country in the world that maybe has been on the Bubble that they have to become a nuclear power. I worry very much about nuclear proliferation. What about you?
- [34:48]
Paul Rykoff
Yeah, that's the whole ball game. I mean, I've had, you know, lots of folks on my show. Joe Sarac own has been on every, you know, every couple of months. We talk about it. And I always remind people I brought this point up when we were electing a president. I bought this point up when we were reviewing Hegseth as a sec def. These are the people in charge of your nukes. That's the, that's the ultimate consideration you should have. Do you trust these people with your nukes? Do you trust these people with your kids? Because they're one in the same in many regards right now. Right. And I think that that is always the calculation. Yeah. What is Pakistan thinking right now? What is India thinking? What are all the countries around the world thinking as they look at this situation? But I think even more immediately. Yeah, yeah. Even more immediately. I think what we have to come to grips with is America's not safe anymore. And we're lucky that it was so safe after 9 11, when I deployed to Iraq, I told my family back home, I'm more worried about you in New York City than I am about me in Iraq. And I think it's a testament to our national security apparatus, to our intelligence, to FBI, to law enforcement. We will never know how many attacks were avoided and prevented in the last 20 plus years. But we've got a new normal now where the FBI has been hollowed out, the Justice Department has been hollowed out. You know, recruiting in many places has been narrowed. Many of our federal agencies have been totally disrupted. And you know what? We need them to watch our ass this summer at the Yankee game and on July 4, and then every time Americans gather. So I think that there's kind of a wake up call that some of the world has been rooting for. Like, you know, island America may not be sustainable. I hope it is, and I'm rooting for that. But I think a more reasonable reality is that the domestic political violence that we've seen, which some have started to normalize, is increasing and can become a dangerous new normal. And more creative and innovative attacks on US soil could be a new normal that we've got to confront. And I don't think most of all. Charlie, keep coming back to this. Congress is not having a discussion right now about how to protect America. After the assassinations happened in Minnesota. What I said is Congress should convene bipartisan way and do an entire national Security review of every elected leader in America, every judge in America come together because Steve Kalis has been. Has been hit, and Paul Pelosi has been. Has been hit. It impacts everyone. But there hasn't been a national security review. There hasn't been a changing of our defensive posture to account for this new threat. And I think, again, just like on 9, 11 on January 6 and so many other times, our politics are not keeping up with our national security reality. And that leaves us all less safe, especially when Donald Trump is holding the wheel.
- [37:34]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I'm glad you brought that up, because you and I are having this conversation on a Monday afternoon, and it has been only eight days since we woke up to find out about the political assassinations in Minnesota. And it feels like that's already been dropped into the memory hole. This is not a new phenomenon that things move so quickly. But I do think that there we all ought to have an exercise like, what are we at risk of forgetting? What are we at risk of, like, moving past? Because we have, and we've experienced this since 2017, that stories that would have dominated the news for six weeks, that would have been the subject of books, are now forgotten in about six, six hours. But what happened in Minnesota, this targeted assassination of Democratic politicians, you know, ought to have shocked the conscience of the nation. It should have been one of those moments where you had a bipartisan coming together and a congressional commitment to addressing safety. In fact, as you mentioned, it feels like just a. In the wind.
- [38:28]
Paul Rykoff
Yeah. And, Charlie, we're always talking about what's happening, and we're not talking about what's next.
- [38:33]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [38:33]
Paul Rykoff
I've tried to do that on my podcast for almost five years. I try to anticipate what's next. Ask my guests, not just break down what's happening now, but what's next. And let me give you one thing to consider, that almost nobody is covering the entire cyber environment right now. American cyber assets are attacking Iran. They're shutting things off, they're disrupting their systems, and counterattacks are undoubtedly happening. We don't know how many cyber attacks right now are being thwarted by our cyber command, the head of which was removed by Donald Trump because Laura Loomer said so just a couple of weeks ago. Right. So I'm going to identify that as an example when I talk to you a week from now. We might be talking about cyber attacks that have been successful, cyber attacks that have been executed by us or by our enemies, but that's an example of where there's a failure of Imagination. The conversation is behind where it needs to be. And I think you need to look to leaders who are taking you to what's next, who are anticipating what's next. And journalists have to ask leaders what's next? Because strategy is not about just planning now, it's about planning what's next and our enemies are doing it. And I think we as a country have to start to anticipate it. Israel's great at this, right? There are bunkers in every single apartment building in Tel Aviv. We don't have those here. So that's an example of anticipating what's next. Where would you put Americans if we had a drone attack? That's a great question for the Chairman of the Joint Chief, the Secretary of Defense. What's our plan if a major city is hit? Those are the kinds of conversations that a responsible country would be having right now.
- [40:04]
Charlie Sykes
So let me go back to something you said at the very beginning of our conversation, that if you're going to take the country to war, you get the country behind you first. That clearly hasn't happened. Polls would suggest that people do understand that Iran was a danger. A lot of skepticism about the actual bombing. Do you think that we're speaking of what's next? Is there going to be a revived anti war movement? Because it's been, it was, I think, sort of in hibernation during the last few years. We didn't have a big anti war movement under Obama or under Biden. What about now? What do you expect to see next?
- [40:43]
Paul Rykoff
For all the reasons we talked about earlier? I mean, it's not people's sons and daughters. If you instituted a draft tomorrow, tomorrow you'd see an instant anti war movement. And that's been, you know, a calculation on the part of now, you know, generations of American politicians because you can take the country to war without taking the country's people to war. And that is a very, you know, dangerous new normal that, that we're living in right now. But I think, you know, when we try to unpack this, Charlie, I think it's really important to ask yourselves and ask other people who do you know right now that's impacted by this? Like, ask yourself the real. It's kind of like, hey, you know, asking like white people how they feel about racism and they all bring up like their one black friend. Right. Like, if you ask Americans, like, how do you feel? Oh, I know a guy who was in the military. Like, I know my grandfather served. Yeah. But like right now, right now, who in your direct orbit could die who could be, could be wounded. Because I think that is a conversation that's not really happening. Like, I'm not totally getting to your question, but I am pushing forward negative part of the social backstop that's missing here. It drives everything, Charlie. Right. And there is a situation where you use Israel as an example, you use South Korea as an example. You know, they've got conscription. You know, every young person serves in the military. We don't have that. Both from a national security standpoint, but we don't have it for social connection. Like my grandfather's generation, My grandmother had 11 brothers and sisters. I think seven of them served in World War II. Right. And I volunteered to go. So I do think it's an important conversation to recognize that we've been very, very convenient. We've been very lucky, we've been very insulated and we've had patriotism light for an entire generation in America. And that may not be sustainable. That may not be sustainable.
- [42:35]
Charlie Sykes
You know, this is such an interesting point because I remember, I lived through all of this. I remember the Vietnam War, and I remember the Vietnam War protests and the, and the, and the anti Vietnam fervor was so dominant. It's, it's hard to imagine it now because it was so consuming. It just covered every aspect of culture and of and of. And of politics. But then I also remember, because I lived through this, I was of the age that was right there when they were doing the draft numbers and everything. When the draft was abolished, you could just feel the entire thing just sort of shrinking away. The moment the draft, the, the, the, the atmosphere in the country and the approach to it when we had a draft was, was this. And it changed rather dramatically. So your point is, I think, right on target. So what else should we be keeping our eyes on? I mean, I think this is one of the struggles that we all have is like, what do we pay attention to? There are so many bright and shiny objects.
- [43:31]
Paul Rykoff
They move.
- [43:32]
Charlie Sykes
What are you watching? Yeah.
- [43:33]
Paul Rykoff
I think there's a really important strategic imperative that sits over all of this.
- [43:38]
Charlie Sykes
Yes.
- [43:39]
Paul Rykoff
Because you mentioned, like, how does the country feel about the war? Country doesn't know shit about this war right now. Right. And that's really important to say. Right. Americans.
- [43:47]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah.
- [43:48]
Paul Rykoff
Americans are not stupid, but they're often slow. Right. So if you ask them when I went into Iraq in the spring of 2003, how they felt about Iraq and you asked them how they feel about Iraq now, like that. That is not a great guide of where we're ultimately going to be or even to drive. To drive policy. Sometimes it's something we should of course, consider, but I think what I'm most concerned about is the consolidation of the machine, of messaging. Right? So you've got Trump on X. You've got Hegseth not doing press conferences even right now. Now, for months, they've only been talking to Newsmax, they've only been talking to own. They don't let anybody travel with them. They're not doing any kind of real, you know, contested interviews. That was, you know, slow stakes in the beginning, Right? You're just nominating some people for the cabinet. Then it was deploying National Guard troops, then it was deploying federal troops. Now it's war. So who's getting the exclusive? Sean Hannity, who's driving the way the President communicates with the American people? X. Right. Like this is the consolidation of messaging. That is super alarming and super important because it's driving everything right now. Right. They have effectively gotten a lot of pieces in place. So when the hard shit comes, like deploying troops on U.S. soil or engaging in foreign conflicts, they control what you think, they control what you see. And that is, you know, you and I are on MSNBC all the time. What do we get? Like 1/20 of the ratings of what they get on Fox News? Right. Like more and more people. Right. The media is consolidating. And you know who's been really quiet? Elon Musk. Right. Elon Musk has been really quiet. And a couple weeks ago, he was the number one, you know, defense contractor in an open war with the commander in chief. And right now, you know, a lot of those, those, those people have fallen in line, even Steve Bannon and others. And I think it's really, really important for people to question every news source, question every piece of information. It's coming directly from them. Because they set this system up, not just for now, but for what can be to come. If they want to put more migrants in jail, if a National Guardsman gets killed in LA, if, if a B2 gets shot down, you can't trust them. And that drive for transparency, I don't want to say we've lost the war, but that is a really important part of the war for the soul of our country is getting back into knowing what the truth is.
- [46:16]
Charlie Sykes
No, And I think it may be even worse than that because we're also now in the AI era, you're seeing with fake IM that are being used all over the place. And so, yeah, that, that increase, that, that skepticism is so necessary. But unfortunately, I'm not sure that everybody has that kind of skepticism. I think, you know, the big question right now, I mean, dominating, you know, what ought to be dominating our discussions is, okay, was that mission successful? Is Iran. Did we actually obliterate Iran's nuclear capability?
- [46:45]
Paul Rykoff
I don't even think that's the right question. I mean, we don't.
- [46:48]
Charlie Sykes
I don't even know that. No. No, we don't know. And I wonder whether we will ever know. You talk about a environment, and I think it's.
- [46:56]
Paul Rykoff
It's important, Charlie, respectfully, to stop asking that question, because who are you going to believe? You're going to believe Hegset, you're going to believe Trump, you're going to believe the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, you're going to believe the Iranians, you're going to believe the Israelis. Like, this is why it's really fucked up right now, right? This is why gone in a way that I don't think most folks are fully appreciating. We don't know what actually happened. And we can't trust our normal. This is the heart.
- [47:26]
Charlie Sykes
No, this is the. This is at the heart of all of it. Is that so? But people will make up their minds. And I think this is what Gary Kasparov, you know, talked about, the role of propaganda to a certain point. It is the annihilation of truth. It's like people shrug their shoulders, and in the fog of war, you basically just pick a side and you decide, I'm going to believe X, and. And I'm not going to listen to anything else. And so we are. This is the reality that we are in. Paul, thank you so much for joining me at a. I would say a particularly fraught moment, but I can't remember when it hasn't been a particularly fraught moment around. So, again, where can people find you? Where should they be looking?
- [48:05]
Paul Rykoff
You can go to independent Americans. My show is. Is up everywhere. It's free. It's on YouTube. I have a conversation with Sebastian Younger, the great author of Tribe and the Perfect Storm, and we talk about the crisis and isolation facing men in America right now, which really is important in understanding the Hegseth phenomenon and how Trump has kind of owned this manosphere and it falls into our national security. And I've talked to folks like Gary Kasparov and others. I also would encourage folks to go to Independent Veterans of America. If you're a veteran and you're independent and you're pissed off or you want to get involved. We want to help you run for office because we do need politically independent leaders. I think we're going to have half a dozen running for Senate. We might have half a dozen running for governor all the way down to school board. So if you've been laid off by Doge and Elon Musk or you feel like now's the time to come in off the sidelines, we want to do that. And I also, I want to say one last thing, Charlie. Every one of us has an opportunity to add light, to contrast, to heat, to bring the temperature down, to be kind to each other and look out for each other. And I've been trying to emphasize that on every platform I can, to try to be civil, to try to be respectful. Don't accept bullshit, obviously, and hate and any of that sort of stuff. But on your very local level, our kids are watching and we need to provide them with some stability and an example, even if our politics and the madness outside and around Washington doesn't. Every one of us can be a good citizen. And that often requires most of all, vigilance. Vigilance is the price of freedom. And we've all got to be vigilant. So I end every one of my shows, Charlie, with stay vigilant. And I would encourage everyone to stay kind if you can and be a helper like Mr. Rogers said, but also to stay vigilant now more than ever.
- [49:51]
Charlie Sykes
Excellent advice. I always end my shows with some other advice is just also remember, just keep in mind we are not the crazy ones. Thanks for listening. Hey, it's Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. Now I was looking for fun ways to tell you that Mint's offer of unlimited Premium Wireless for $15 a month is back. So I thought it would be fun if we made $15 bills, but it turns out that's very illegal. So there goes my big idea for the commercial. Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of $45 for a three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of network's busy taxes and fees extra.
- [50:46]
Paul Rykoff
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Paul Rykoff
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Charlie Sykes
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