Tim O'Brien: Trump's Day of Rage - To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes

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[00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
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[00:40]
Charlie Sykes
Thing Mint Mobile unlimited premium wireless.
[00:43]
Tim O'Brien
30, 30.
[00:43]
Charlie Sykes
Better get 30, get 20. 20, 20. Better get 20. 20 better get 15. 15, 15, 15. Just 15 bucks a month. Sold.
[00:49]
Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com SOL upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slower after 35 gigabytes of network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[01:10]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[01:14]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.
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Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel.
[01:23]
Ryan Reynolds
I wouldn' hear more stories like Jax@unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply.
[01:43]
Charlie Sykes
Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. I am Charlie Sykes on another remarkable weekend. But then, what weekend isn't remarkable? I'm joined by Tim o' Brien, who is the senior editor. I'm sorry, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion. I wanted to get the whole title in there, Tim, so.
[01:59]
Tim O'Brien
It's a mouthful, Charlie. I'm sorry for that.
[02:01]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, well, I was really anxious to talk with you today. You know, you and I were just reflecting though, about, you know, once again, this has almost become a cliche, how fast things move. That a week ago where, you know, we have the bombing in Iran. The week before that we had all the LA clashes, the LA clashes in the, in the, you know, sending the Marines into Los Angeles at the time seemed like, you know, this was going to be the biggest story of the summer, and now you're going, yeah. Was that like two weeks ago? I mean, things move so fast and the zone is so full all the time, every single day.
[02:36]
Tim O'Brien
And meanwhile, the Trumps are pursuing new business ventures, which we can talk about. And just this week, Trump managed to pay down the debt that has been hanging over his head on one of his most valuable properties in New York. And we all have to wonder, like, well, where did he suddenly get the resources to do that? I mean, I think we know at least, you know, crypto and other goodies. But all of these questions about how he's monetizing the White House are also getting swept away by the news cycle.
[03:05]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I'm glad you mentioned that, because I was looking at the piece that you wrote about a week ago. Feels like a month ago or a lifetime ago. Trump Mobile joins the Oval Office sales parade. You know, the fact that they, they're rolling out their own mobile thing. And again, this is, it's, it's the graft and the corruption in broad daylight. It's so breathtaking. And yet, as you point out, if, you know, I looked at this and I thought, well, that was only a week ago. I thought that was like months ago. And it barely made one news cycle. Right. That you. That the Trump family has just launched another probably multimillion dollar grift.
[03:39]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah. And one of the things they said when they rolled out their telephone, Charlie, you know, because it was as it always is with these things with the Trump, it's part political grandstanding along with business ventures, because I think they're just throwing as much mud against the wall as they can to see what sticks. But on this one, they said, you know, and of course, the Trump phone will be made in the USA and those in all big caps, which anyone who's in the, you know, telecommunications business knows the reason that people don't make phones entirely in the United States is because it's financially impossible to do that. They'd be, they'd have to sell us 5000, 6000, $7000 phone if they were to do that. And about a week after they made this announcement, they said, oh, yeah, we'll probably have to manufacture it elsewhere, which, you know, even the Trumps can't reshore American manufacturing despite Trump's tariff wars. But the larger thing, as you point out, is that these ventures channel cash ultimately directly right back into Trump's pocket while he's sitting in the Oval Office. And it's, you know, when you start to turn the White House into a Giant, you know, shingle machine for business and cash machine. It's, it degrades the office, it degrades good government. I don't think that's a partisan issue. It's a good governance.
[05:00]
Charlie Sykes
Are you suggesting that the founding fathers did not intend the, the White House to be the world's greatest atm? That this was not their plan?
[05:09]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah, you know, they couldn't even imagine an ATM back there. But they did have, you know, that great word emoluments that all of those great 18th century, we got this covered. Bribes. Yeah. Because they couldn't have imagined that the White House actually would become a Walmart or an atm, because I don't think they envisioned someone like Trump ever holding the office.
[05:34]
Charlie Sykes
Well, that's the flaw. And of course, figuring that they thought they handled it. So, one last comment from your piece about all of this. It's not just the graph. It is this blending together of government power for personal gain, as you point out, like your last paragraph. So what are the chances that Trump will use his son's new mobile venture as a reason to lean on AT&T Verizon and T Mobile to give his children or the market they inhabit favorable treatment in exchange for some form of regulatory or business relief? Probably just as good as the chances of money from the cellular startup finding its way into Trump's coffers. I mean, this is the, the problem is that he is, will nakedly leverage these various, you know, these various deals for, not just for his own benefit, but to, you know, put pressure on other companies to bend to his will. And this.
[06:23]
Tim O'Brien
Absolutely. And, you know, the cellular thing is, is small potatoes financially. I mean, for an average American, if you had some venture that would spin out 10 to $50 million, you would have been in a gold mine. But we have to remember what Trump's doing with crypto. You know, they're harvesting billions of dollars from their own trafficking in, in meme coins and crypto and crypto exchanges that they have direct ownership of, while Trump simultaneously is trying to deregulate the industry and bring crypto into the Treasury Department as an asset to be held by the US Government. All of it is self dealing and it involves billions of dollars. And it is not in the interest of, for the economy or for businesses.
[07:14]
Charlie Sykes
We're putting America first. So there's so much that I want to talk with you about. Of course, we're probably not going to get to Friday's big Supreme Court document dump, but it'll be for another podcast. But I want to get your Take on what's happening in New York with the mayor's race, what it means for Democrats. We probably ought to notice this is the one year anniversary of the famous Trump Biden debate, only a year ago. But let's start with. Well, I'm going to start with this, the day of rage on, on Thursday where after the initial reports came out from the Defense Intelligence Agency that perhaps we had not completely obliterated Iran's nuclear capability, Donald Trump, I mean, he went off, he, I mean, and he deployed. Pete Hegseth, he deployed, I mean, everybody out there this. And again, even by Trumpian standards, it did seem he was a bit rattled by it. And you have this rage against the media now, again, not new Trump attacking the media. But I don't know, were you struck by just the level of the personal viciousness and his absolute commitment to basically create his own reality, regardless of the evidence? So just what was your reaction to that day of rage, including the attacks on CNN reporters and Fox Reports? You have the President of the United States tweeting out or zeeting out in all caps that these people should be fired. I mean, this is, it feels like.
[08:36]
Tim O'Brien
And that they're, that they're one more line, that they're evil. Yes, they're evil on top of it. They should be fired. They should be evil. They're evil and they should be fired. It's the worst kind of propagandizing and thuggery that you can engage in from the White House. And it's not new. Actually, any time he's challenged, particularly when he gets caught out flat out on the fact pattern, we could talk to that specifically about Iran. But he's cycled through this his whole life. His whole life. Back when he was almost on the edge of personal bankruptcy in the early 90s, he routinely, in interviews, when journalists asked him, is your whole thing going down the tubes? He'd whip off his microphone and walk out of the interview or he'd shout that his business was great, the media was just taking cheap shots at him. You know, the, the consequences of all this are so much more significant now, obviously, because he's the President United States and he just, you know, unleashed an epic missile barrage on Iran, potentially deepening the US his own involvement in a, in a Middle Eastern war. And you know, the, if you look back, what happened Since October of 2023 when Hamas attacked and murdered innocent Israelis and the war that's come out of that, the geopolitical map in the Middle east has been reordered in a way I don't think people could have anticipated, and I don't think this is over yet. Obviously, there's still a horrid affair and mess in Gaza that needs to be reordered. But Syria has been essentially defenestrated militarily, Hezbollah and Hamas subjugated. And now Iran has been, I think, at a minimum, humbled. Deeply humbled. Deeply humbled and. And potentially derailed. And Trump could come out and simply say, we've let Iran know what we're willing to do to stop them from making a nuclear weapon because we don't trust one in their hands. We think we've set their efforts back significantly, but we still need some intelligence gathering and other things to do. But believe me, if they do this again, we'll do this again, and they should know that, and that's a good message. But because he can't, because he looks at this, the world, in this kind of juvenile World Wrestling Federation way, he needs to say, we obliterated the whole thing. It will never function again. They've been set back decades when that's not what intelligence briefings seem to indicate and it's not what military briefings indicate. And then, of course, when quite rationally, the media says, we don't know yet, Trump has his back on his heels and goes in the attack, and he feels slighted, he feels challenged, and he should be challenged because he's not telling the truth, by all accounts.
[11:42]
Charlie Sykes
Well, to see, you made a really excellent point here, that this could have been finessed. He could have taken the victory lap. He could have said, okay, we think we did a lot of damage. But the key point here is we have told Iran what we are capable of doing because we will not ever tolerate a nuclear Iran. Okay? Defensible position, keeps his options open. I wonder whether he's putting himself in a box here because he's in 100% denial. And I wrote this the other day, you know, by saying that, you know, no, it's gone. You know, I essentially removed the threat. Well, what if, in fact, it turns out you haven't? Does he have to say, well, I was wrong. That's why we have to bomb again? I mean, he is really.
[12:20]
Tim O'Brien
No, you know, Charlie, he'll never say that. You know, I know that was wrong. Right? He'll say, someone in my administration misled me or someone else gave me bad information, but what I said at the time I thought was true. And, you know, core, his core followers always will accept that from him, and he knows it, and he's got you know, going after the media plays.
[12:47]
Charlie Sykes
Well, it does, it does. Although there was something about this. I mean, I did think, I mean, again, none of this is new and we feel like we go through this, but just the level of thin skinnedness on this one, I mean, he obviously thought that this was the signature moment of his entire presidency. Everything hung on it. And when that leak came out, I mean, he was just in incandescent with rage about it. And the fact that they're taking such extreme steps, you know, his rhetoric is extreme. But also now they're going to limit the sharing of intelligence with Congress. Okay, so by the way, every single podcast we had to talk about this. Like, Tim, what's your best memory of when we had a Congress? Where's Congress in all of this?
[13:36]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah, you know, I think you can start to chart that downward slope from the Newt Gingrich era to the present where more weight was placed on partisan infighting and public shaming than legislating. And it's, you know, I think that the United States is a country that used to solve epic problems and be an example of the world around so many things. Education, transportation, economic growth, civil rights, on and on and on. And now, you know, we, we, we have crumbling bridges, crumbling infrastructure, a very messy fiscal, dangerously messy fiscal picture. Trump hasn't accomplished any of the fiscal rectitude measures he promised on the campaign trail, and he won't. And I think the Congress is just, it's like a frat house. It's a frat house. It's not a legislative body.
[14:36]
Charlie Sykes
Well, and, but it is about to pass perhaps, you know, the huge omnibus bill, the big beautiful bill, which also is. Now, I want this, this is a nonpartisan point now. What a shitty way to legislate the way. And this has been done by both parties. They come up with omnibus, then it becomes the chromnibus, then it becomes the big beautiful bill. And there are no hearings, there's no debate. It's all, you know, in the back rooms, you know, making changes that nobody may know about until the bill is actually passed. I mean, it's just a terrible way of legislating. But give me your sense on where we're at with the big beautiful bill.
[15:12]
Tim O'Brien
We are fully in the throes of voodoo. We are not in the throes of budget making. Everyone in Washington has already pointed out that there's almost $5 trillion in debt at the federal level. The U.S. government, the taxpayers are on the hook for, and the goal was to try to find ways to Dramatically reduce that. And it's not complex how you do that. You raise taxes and cut spending in some balance. It's palatable to voters in the same way we all manage the budgets in our own households. But the GOP wants to enshrine the tax cuts, the TCJA from Trump's first term. And without doing any meaningful budget cutting, they're not really doing anything to entitlement programs, which is where all the federal spending is. As we know, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and defense spending account for payments on the debt. Payments on the debt.
[16:24]
Charlie Sykes
They're kind of ravaging Medicare. Yeah, but I mean, yeah, they're saying.
[16:28]
Tim O'Brien
They'Re going to do that. They're saying they're going to do that, but it still is not what they have. Now, by their own measure, when they began this process of the House was going to add another 4 to 5 trillion to the existing 5 trillion. And that was when they started. They're now saying that they're actually going to cut 11 trillion. I don't know how they get there. And that within, I think, six months, you'll get a 10% GDP bump, which is complete science fiction. And they're pretending that the tax cuts don't exist to get there. They're just pretending. They're like, it's a shell game. And this is not traditional conservative budget making. This is not traditional Republican budget making. That's just irresponsible math done to protect pork and fiscal measures that aren't rational or productive.
[17:28]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I try not to get too deeply into the weeds of this kabuki dance that goes on, you know, in terms of the votes. But my gut sense, and I want to get your sense, is that something will pass. I mean, people talk about it being derailed or it's a big, beautiful mess or anything. You know, this is one of those bills that they eventually will pass something huge. Right. I mean, he's going, donald Trump will get the win. Although, by the way, if you're a legislator, you also ought to be aware of the possibility that you spend all this political capital on this bill, send it to Trump. Trump gets too much heat about this cut or this thing there, and he goes, this is a terrible bill. I'm gonna send it back and I'm gonna make them pay. He could throw them under the bus. Right, but they're gonna get the bill, right?
[18:13]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah. I mean, I think just watching some of the stirrings within the Senate over the last couple of days, I think that Thune has gotten indications that his Caucus may not be holding together. I do think Trump wants this by July 4th. As you know, he loves performance art, and he would love to announce this on July 4th, so it may go through. The other thing is a lot of the cuts they're pursuing, particularly some of the infrastructure spending and the clean energy spending that came out of the Biden era, a lot of that went to red states, and, and red state voters are going to lose jobs and, and the Medicaid cuts. You know, the degree to which there are, you know, voters in red states who are deeply dependent on Medicaid and Medicare is, I think, could have electoral consequences as well. And, and I don't know in this rush to get it done BY or by July 4, how closely the GOP has thought through the electoral consequences of this. Next year's midterms are going to be a very telling referendum, I think, around a lot of things, including the economy.
[19:31]
Charlie Sykes
Oh, no, they will. And, you know, before we get to. I want to get to the New York City thing, but, you know, let's just shift for a moment to immigration, because the immigration is, you know, continues to be a, you know, the obsession of the administration, and they continue to escalate their tactics and what they are doing. I am struck by. I was struck by the most recent Quinnipiac poll that really shows a shift in public opinion against the immigration crackdown, that, in fact, people are much more open to pathways to citizenship. And the approval rating for ICE is deeply underwater right now. So if somebody would have asked me earlier, what would Donald Trump's big strength be, I would have said, okay, that, you know, immigration is going to be his card. He thinks it's his card. He thinks that sending the troops into L. A was a huge win. It's not turning out that way, is it, Tim?
[20:26]
Tim O'Brien
No, Charlie. This is a really important thing to focus on because the tailwinds he had when he came into office, I think immigration was a key, a key issue that was a winning issue for him, along with promises to end inflation, which he's done an epic potential cell phone on that with his tariff policy. But putting that aside, I think Americans have gotten educated because of everything that's happening around immigration, about what the dimensions of our immigration problems really are. And it is a problem. I think the southern border has been too porous.
[21:00]
Charlie Sykes
Sure.
[21:02]
Tim O'Brien
And for border states, it's a difficult thing to manage. But what we've also learned is that there are a number of important industries in the United States that depend on migrant labor, and those immigrants aren't simply coming across the border to commit crimes or the other kind of cartoonish depictions of that population of immigrants that Trump is made. Our own system is not outfitted to document those folks properly in a way that both them and their employers can live with it in a transparent and by the books way. So people are finding ways around that, but they're vital cogs in the economic machinery. And then secondarily, and I think it's heartening, is Americans don't want problems like this addressed by people in black masks descending in a military fashion on businesses and neighborhoods, because this isn't Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia. And I think that's heartening. And you got a glimmer of this. I remember back in the spring when Chuck Grassley went home into a deep red district back in his home state and did a town hall and he got creamed on immigration issues. And I thought, wow, if that's happening to Grassley in a friendly district in a red state, the GOP needs of attention to that. I think that's continuing to play out. And I think it says a lot about, I think, Americans trying to decide where the immigration problem actually resides and what's the best way to approach it. And I don't think they want Stephen Miller's mass deportation program.
[22:39]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, and this is Stephen Miller, you can just say it's the ham handedness, the crudity of it. This all comes, you know, springs from the head of Stephen Miller. But, you know, it does feel as if the American public is being educated on this or being forced to focus on it, the specifics. And I think once again, we're seeing the power of stories. We're seeing the power of the pictures, these images, because as we're talking about this, I think, you know, most people will have in their mind's eye, you know, the picture of, you know, mass agents beating the shit out of, you know, a lawn care worker, you know, who's. Whose sons were in the military, all of that sort of thing. And, and the stories have been very, very compelling. And I think Donald Trump assumed the narrative would be, you know, one gang member, one drug dealer, one rapist, you know, deported from the country. And that's not the story. What we're hearing about is, you know, the, the beloved woman who worked in the hardware store, or, you know, the, the spouse of somebody that, you know, is a teacher.
[23:36]
Tim O'Brien
The spouse of a military veteran. The spouse of a military veteran. Exactly.
[23:39]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. I mean, yeah. And these are just terrible, terrible stories. And so I am also heartened by this, that this is kind of a Rorschach test for American decency, that you look at these pictures and do you say, is that the America you want? Do you think that's fair? And pretty big numbers of Americans are saying, no, that that was not what I, what I bought into.
[24:01]
Tim O'Brien
Well, and I think one of the facets of Trump's existence in our political and social and business lives is that it's forcing people to think about what they want out of their society in a very deep way and then to decide whether or not they're going to stand up around that. And I think the US because we have such a, you know, a vibrant and massive economy and a good legal system, I think it's been easy for people over the years to say, well, eventually these things all iron out and it all gets secured. A rising tide lifts all boats and Trump comes into the vacuum and basically says, I don't care if the tide is rising. I'm going to take my sledgehammer to various important parts of the American experiment. Let's see if you can live with that. Overturning the rule of law and civil rights and economic rationality, and on and on and on. And I think it's heartening to see people pushing back against that.
[25:06]
Charlie Sykes
It is. And for people who think that this is sort of the end times, and I can sympathize with that. But there's also this opportunity for clarification that you just described, and I do sense that that's going on, that for the first time people are thinking like, why is due process important? Why is the rule of law so valuable? What do I want to deny Freedom? Yeah. How big do I want government to be? How much power should the government have over civil society? All of these things are clarifying moments. Okay, so speaking of clarifying moments or non clarifying moments, I really want to get your take on what just happened in New York. You've been watching this very, very closely. Andrew Cuomo, one of the most deeply flawed candidates you can imagine, goes down in flames. But the big headline story is Democrats have nominated a Democratic socialist. But a specific kind of. And I get a lot of blowback. Don't call him a socialist. You got to call him a Democratic socialist. He is a Democratic socialist of America candidate, dsa. I would urge people go read the platform of dsa. It is not a centrist platform. All right, deep breath here, because I know a lot of people don't want to hear this, but. Tim o' Brien, what did you. What was your take on, on that and what it means I want to get into. And also what does it mean for national Democrats? Positively and negatively.
[26:28]
Tim O'Brien
But let's, well, I think, let's talk national, local and national again, I guess on national, I think, I think the issue for Democrats that this falls into, it's the broader bucket of what is the Democrats message to voters that unites a party that's always been splintered by its progressive left and its moderate center when it's battling a Republican Party that's split between traditional Republicans but has had a lot of its mojo overtaken by Trump and maga. Maga right. And MAGA populism. And I think that, you know, the 2024 election I think showed that Democrats hadn't fine tuned their message enough. And I think there's now, I think there was some cohesion in the party in the Biden years about finding things that worked because they wanted to make sure Trump didn't get reelected. And progressive Democrats who went along with that, I think ultimately felt, well, what do we get out of this? And I think particularly young voters, young Democrats are turned off and they want something more vibrant. So wherever Mandani's ideology resides on the campaign trail, his appeal in New York to young voters, which Andrew Cuomo himself recognized. Cuomo tried to run a basement campaign ala Biden in 2020 and it didn't work. And I think he thought it was his race to lose and it wasn't. But the party is, you know, going to have to deal with Donald Trump collectively saying that Chuck Schumer, AOC and the new mayor elect, well, the primary victor in New York are, are, are not so commie leftists who are going to burn the country down, basically. And for him it's a gift.
[28:22]
Charlie Sykes
But he would have said that anyway, right? I mean people, he would have said that anyway. Get on that is. But now he's got a guy who goes, I am a socialist and is attached to this very specific agenda. I'm sorry.
[28:35]
Tim O'Brien
Well, but I think then the next step politically is how savvy is Mandani going to be. And since Andrew Cuomo was in this race, we can quote his, I think far savvier father, his late father Mario, who said, you know, campaigning is, is poetry and governance is prose. And so I think we need to wait and see how Mandani governs. And if he wins.
[29:11]
Charlie Sykes
And is it, are you assuming that he, that he wins? I mean, there's a lot of word that there was a lot of.
[29:16]
Tim O'Brien
Well, I mean, I think he Established. Resolved. Yeah. I think till that's resolved, we're, you know, we're talking hypotheticals. I don't, I can't imagine New York voters are going to go for Eric Adams again here. Maybe there's a write in candidate who could come in. Cuomo suggested he'd run as an independent. But I think what Cuomo has learned is that he's so flawed. You know, New Yorkers aren't as forgiving of sexual harassment allegations as Trump's own voters are of liaisons with porn stars. So that's just not going to fly in New York, I think, with Democratic voters. So I think there's a very good chance he wins. And then the question is, what does he do with that victory and how does he choose to unite the party and create a coalition that he can be an example of, a coalition that could win at the national level? And I think he's going to have to figure out, you know, he's a young man, he's in his early 30s. I think some of his voters, you know, I remember one voter saying, you know, he ran the state in an interview after the election. He ran the state of Finland, you know, yeah, yeah, of course he can. You know, he'll be greater in the city. I'm thinking to myself, this is the kind of thing that Trump, people say about Trump. You know, scribing talent simply doesn't have, you know, Malnani was a state assemblyman, he didn't run the state and he's a young assemblyman. And so we'll have to see. There's a lot managerially and policy making that we'll have to see. But in the current environment, it's a marketing gift to Trump.
[31:02]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, it is. And I think there's a lot of denial about a couple of things, including the fact, you know, this will be nationalized. And I've noticed a lot of the smart folks who say, well, no, all politics is local. And why would the mayor of New York be nationalized? It's because. Have you been paying attention to the last 10 years of what happens in politics? You find a target and that person can become the face of the party. And this is the marketing gift to Donald Trump, especially because now Democrats are in the weird position of having gone from, you know, don't call us socialists. We're not socialists. We're capitalists. We're not socialists, too. Well, maybe we are socialists and there's nothing wrong with that. And this may play in a New York City primary, but it is not going to play in any state or district that will determine the majority and who wins these elections. And I mean, I think, I think.
[31:55]
Tim O'Brien
Though, Charlie, the issues, the issues that have surfaced in this are still national issues that I think both parties have to deal with. You know, affordable housing, jobs, you know, equitable standard of living, who, whatever path people take towards solving those. I think this election showed that voters, particularly young voters, are concerned about them.
[32:18]
Charlie Sykes
Well, okay, that's true, but, and again, we're talking about somebody who has a long track record of quotes that will be used against him, you know, on Israel. On Israel, you know, on, I mean, here's somebody who says he would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu if he comes to New York, was refused to, to distance himself from, globalize the intifada or, you know, from the river to the sea. And so I just wonder whether or not this is sifted down, you know, when people begin to say, you know, we actually have someone here who has one of the most militant, anti Israel, pro Palestinian positions. And again, how does that play outside? Who is, you know, called for defunding the police, government run grocery stores. Now, on the one hand, I do understand, like, we have to like push back against the oligarchy, but I'm not sure that government run grocery stores is the way to bring down the oligarchy. And so there are all of these issues and we will see whether or not this 33 year old state assemblyman has the savvy to now begin to explain this, because the situation for Democrats is just horrible. If they endorse him, then they are endorsing a democratic socialist of America who has all of these positions that, you know, again, I'm not saying he's anti Semitic, but that is going to be a big theme out there. If they don't endorse him, if they back away, you have this younger, more progressive base that will feel betrayed and the party will fracture. So this is, this creates massive problems for the Democrats. And I think there's the moment where people are distracted by the bright, shiny objects of the fact that he's charismatic, he's young, he's cool, he actually did get young voters. These are all great things. But then I feel like there's this massive baggage in the shadows that's about to come out.
[34:02]
Tim O'Brien
And I think that that's going to be, I mean, he's going to be turned into a pinata by the GOP and around all of the issues, you just cite it and how he responds to those and how the party responds to it are Going to be very telling.
[34:20]
Charlie Sykes
I think it is. It is going to be telling. And I think that there's a tendency right now to sort of underestimate the fall, the fallout from all of this. And, you know, on my comments on Substack, it was, it was interesting. I mean, we live in a period of, I think of, you know, ideological malleability, let's put it this way. But the number of people who are going, well, I've never thought about it before, but why wouldn't we have, you know, government run grocery stores? Why shouldn't we try socials? Why shouldn't we nationalize, you know, all means of production and like, wait, guys, five minutes ago, you never would have said you were in favor of those things. But I think that there's a, I guess, and I think I mentioned this look at.
[35:01]
Tim O'Brien
Go ahead. No, go ahead. Sorry, I interrupted you.
[35:03]
Charlie Sykes
The level at which people can sort of delude themselves into saying, well, you know what, maybe defunding the police is not such a terrible idea. Well, no, it politically is a terrible idea. If you want to defeat Trumpism, don't talk yourselves into it. Now, the other factor is, of course, you have the right wing, you have Republicans who are making these violently, you know, these violent, racist attacks on him. And so there's a rallying around, there's a backlash. I just, you know, unfortunately, as you and I have both seen in politics, there is that sense that when your guy is attacked to go on the defense, even if, you know, you don't want to be on that team. I didn't say that very clearly, but I'm sorry, what do we, you know.
[35:50]
Tim O'Brien
Well, I mean, you know, we've always said with, with Trump that, you know, reality intrudes when he's, when he's, when he's, you know, in his latest fit of frenzy around any policy or public issue. And I think the same is going to be true with Madnani. I think that he's, I think that he is, for example, on housing. He said that he wants to deal with the housing crisis by embracing rent control and then finding a huge swath of land in the New York metro area to build affordable housing on. Now, I do think there's a problem with affordable housing and it should be addressed. It's going to be focused on that. But he then acquires all this land, what developers are going to want to build there, if the rent control, if the housing all has rent control associated with it. What. And then if you, if it's not going to be Private sector builders who. Who do it, then where is he going to find the tax revenue to build the housing himself? Through the government, which has been a model a lot of local governments have been moving away from. So is it a public private partnership? Well, then again, how many private entities want to get involved with this? If rent control exists, he's going to have to sort through all of the fiscal and infrastructure realities that are entailed with that, which is a very. Tied into that, which is a very different thing than simply saying, I'll solve this with rent control and buying up a lot of land and developing it and the rubber is going to meet the road for him very quickly on issues like that, I think.
[37:25]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, I think it will. I'm still interested to see how the Democratic establishment, what they do. And I agree with you that I can't imagine Eric Adams making a comeback. But we've seen stranger things in politics. I've seen stranger and odder things happen. I think a lot depends.
[37:48]
Tim O'Brien
Trump got reelected.
[37:50]
Charlie Sykes
Well, yes. I mean, we live in an age in which Trump, as a convicted felon, got reelected. Eric Adams has been, you know, I don't know. It is interesting how a city the size of New York has such a run of shitty mayors. I mean, you go from Bill de Blasio to Eric Adams, but you just never know what's going to happen if there's sort of a shock factor. And the reality is that a lot of big cities have questionable mayors. And you're going to hear a lot about what's going on in Chicago, where the progressive, young, charismatic mayor there has an approval rating of below 20%, doesn't he?
[38:32]
Tim O'Brien
He does. And I think. I think it's a referendum on a lot of things. I think one is cities are complex to manage, so you want people as mayor who are good managers. You know, the New York City budget, I think, is bigger than all but five states. So it's a. It's, you know, it is a giant operation. It is. It is racially and ethnically diverse. It has a vast public school system. It has immigrant immigrants populating neighborhoods who need to be assimilated and are vital to the city's health. It has all sorts of infrastructure challenges and on and on and on and on. And that's mirrored, as you noted, I think, in many ways in other cities right now, from Chicago to Boston to Philadelphia, Miami, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, you name it. And in every one of those cases, I think the first thing you need to do is a good manager who knows how to align services with revenues and, and think about what the city's life should look like. And I think you're seeing that right now. It's just a challenge for all mayors. And I think secondly, you've got a guy in the White House who's routinely saying cities are hell holes despite the fact that people love living in them. And they've often been very shiny beacons for the best of American life. This guy who was born and bred in New York, earned his living there, is saying cities are just worthless dumps. And he's doing everything he can to sort of get federal support for them out of the way. So it's a challenging time to be a mayor and you would want something better than a cast of cartoon characters running for office.
[40:13]
Charlie Sykes
So this is an important point for folks out there that actually mayors have, are some of the most consequential public officials in America because they're not just legislators. They, they can really turn things around. I used to be a City hall reporter and went to a lot of the National Conference of Mayors back, back in the day. And at the time, I remember, you know, in the, you know, 70s and 80s and 90s, you know, you would watch how you have a bad mayor and they could destroy a city that they, I mean, but. And a really, really good mayor could have just dramatic effects on changing the trajectory of a city. I don't know of any other specific government official who has that much sort of, you know, tactile impact that you can see in real time in a city, you know, how much a good mayor of New York can turn the city around, how much a bad mayor can, you know, bring it to the brink. And you're seeing that in Chicago and Los Angeles and Seattle and Portland and, well, you know, Detroit and Milwaukee as well. So this is a great point. Tim o' Brien, thank you so much for joining me. Our audience always appreciates your input. And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Country. I'm Charlie Sachs. You know why we do this? We have to do this several times a week just to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.
[41:37]
Ryan Reynolds
Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[41:48]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[41:51]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.
[41:58]
Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel I wouldn't be here.
[42:01]
Ryan Reynolds
Hear more stories like Jack's at unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply. Ryan Reynolds here from Int Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us we brought in a reverse auctioneer which is is apparently.
[42:17]
Charlie Sykes
A thing Mint Mobile Unlimited Premium Wireless 2020 better get 15 15, 15 15. Just 15 bucks a month sold.
[42:27]
Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of 45 for three month plan equivalent to 15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[42:53]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[42:56]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stamp placed in his heart preventing a massive heart attack.
[43:03]
Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here.
[43:06]
Ryan Reynolds
Hear more stories like Jack's at United States Benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply.
[43:13]
Charlie Sykes
And now a next level moment from ATT Business. Say you've sent out a gigantic shipment of pillows and they need to be there in time for International Sleep day. You've got AT and T5G so you're fully confident. But the vendor isn't responding and International Sleep Day is tomorrow. Luckily, AT&T 5G lets you deal with any issues with ease so the pillows will get delivered and everyone can sleep soundly, especially you. ATT 5G requires a compatible plan and device coverage not available everywhere. Learn more@att.com 5G Network.
[43:43]
Ryan Reynolds
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Summary6 min read

Podcast Title: To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes
Host: Charlie Sykes
Guest: Tim O'Brien, Senior Executive Editor of Bloomberg Opinion
Episode: Tim O'Brien: Trump's Day of Rage
Release Date: June 29, 2025

Introduction

In this compelling episode of To The Contrary, host Charlie Sykes engages in a deep and insightful conversation with Tim O'Brien, Senior Executive Editor of Bloomberg Opinion. The discussion centers around former President Donald Trump's recent actions, their implications on governance, media relations, and the broader political landscape in the United States.

Trump’s Business Ventures and White House Monetization

Key Discussion Points:

Monetization of the White House: Tim O'Brien highlights Trump's ongoing business ventures while holding the office, particularly focusing on the launch of "Trump Mobile." This move is portrayed as a blatant attempt to monetize the presidency, raising concerns about conflicts of interest and the erosion of good governance.
Economic Implications: O'Brien questions the financial strategies behind Trump's ability to pay down debts on his properties during his presidency, suggesting potential links to unconventional revenue streams like cryptocurrency.

Notable Quotes:

O'Brien on Trump Mobile:
"[03:05]... these ventures channel cash ultimately directly back into Trump's pocket while he's sitting in the Oval Office. When you start to turn the White House into a Giant... money machine, it degrades the office and good government."
O'Brien on Emoluments Clause:
"[05:08]... they couldn't have imagined someone like Trump ever holding the office. Now, turning the White House into an ATM was never part of the founding fathers' plan."

Trump’s "Day of Rage" and Media Relations

Key Discussion Points:

Attack on the Media: The episode delves into Trump's aggressive rhetoric against media outlets, particularly CNN and Fox News, where he labeled journalists as "evil" and called for their firing following leaked intelligence reports on Iran.
Impact on Public Discourse: O'Brien discusses the dangers of such propagandizing from the White House, emphasizing how it undermines democratic norms and fuels partisan divides.

Notable Quotes:

O'Brien on Media Attacks:
"[08:36]... 'they're evil and they should be fired.' It's the worst kind of propagandizing and thuggery that you can engage in from the White House."
O'Brien on Leadership Style:
"[11:42]... Trump can't finesse the situation because he’s in full denial. He can’t admit mistakes, forcing him to perpetuate a cycle of aggression and misinformation."

The State of Congress and the Big Omnibus Bill

Key Discussion Points:

Legislative Challenges: Charlie and Tim explore the dysfunctional state of Congress, comparing it to a "frat house" rather than a legislative body, and discuss the problematic nature of the current omnibus bill process.
Fiscal Policies: O'Brien critiques the Republican approach to budgeting, highlighting unrealistic debt reduction promises and the neglect of entitlement programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.

Notable Quotes:

O'Brien on Congressional Dysfunction:
"[14:35]... the Congress is just like a frat house. It's not a legislative body."
O'Brien on Budget Cuts:
"[15:12]... they're saying they're going to cut $11 trillion, which is complete science fiction. It's irresponsible math done to protect pork and fiscal measures that aren't rational or productive."

Immigration Policy and Public Opinion

Key Discussion Points:

Shift in Public Sentiment: The conversation highlights recent Quinnipiac polls indicating a decline in public support for harsh immigration crackdowns and growing openness to pathways to citizenship.
ICE Approval Ratings: O'Brien notes the significant drop in ICE's approval ratings, reflecting a broader discomfort with aggressive immigration enforcement tactics.
Economic Dependence on Migrant Labor: They discuss the essential roles that immigrants play in various industries, countering the narrative that immigrants are primarily involved in criminal activities.

Notable Quotes:

O'Brien on Public Opinion:
"[21:00]... there's a number of important industries in the United States that depend on migrant labor. These immigrants aren't simply coming across the border to commit crimes."
O'Brien on Political Backlash:
"[25:06]... Trump is forcing people to think about what they want out of their society in a very deep way and decide whether or not they're going to stand up against that."

New York's Mayoral Race and the Rise of Democratic Socialism

Key Discussion Points:

Nomination of a Democratic Socialist: The episode examines New York City's mayoral race, where Democrats have nominated a self-identified Democratic Socialist. This development raises concerns about the party's cohesion and its implications for national politics.
Impact on National Democrats: O'Brien analyzes how this nomination could either energize the progressive base or provide ammunition for Republican attacks, particularly from Trump, affecting the Democratic Party's national strategy.
Policy Challenges: The discussion touches on the candidate’s platform, including rent control and affordable housing initiatives, questioning their feasibility and potential economic impacts.

Notable Quotes:

O'Brien on Democratic Messaging:
"[26:27]... the Democrats hadn't fine-tuned their message enough. Progressive Democrats feel they’re not getting what they deserve, leading to potential fractures within the party."
O'Brien on Political Strategy:
"[34:20]... he's going to be turned into a piñata by the GOP and around all of the issues, you just cite it and how he responds to those and how the party responds to it are going to be very telling."

The Role of Mayors in Big Cities

Key Discussion Points:

Consequential Leadership: Charlie emphasizes the significant impact that mayors have on their cities, likening their roles to that of CEOs who can dramatically influence urban trajectories.
Challenges in Urban Governance: O'Brien and Charlie discuss the complexities of managing large, diverse cities like New York, pointing out that effective administration requires balancing services with revenues and addressing infrastructural and social challenges.
Federal Relations: The conversation also touches on President Trump's antagonistic stance towards cities, further complicating the role of mayors in securing federal support and navigating political pressures.

Notable Quotes:

Charlie on Mayors' Impact:
"[40:13]... a really good mayor could have just dramatic effects on changing the trajectory of a city."
O'Brien on Urban Challenges:
"[38:32]... New York City budget is bigger than all but five states. It's a giant operation with vast public services and infrastructure challenges."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with Charlie and Tim reflecting on the multifaceted challenges facing the United States, from presidential misconduct and legislative gridlock to evolving immigration policies and the pivotal role of urban leadership. Tim O'Brien provides a sobering analysis of the current political climate, emphasizing the need for responsible governance and informed public discourse to navigate these turbulent times.

Notable Moments:

[05:33]
Charlie Sykes: "Are you suggesting that the founding fathers did not intend the White House to be the world's greatest ATM? That this was not their plan?"
[12:20]
O'Brien: "He’ll never say that he was wrong. He’ll blame someone in his administration or claim he was misled, maintaining his narrative despite evidence to the contrary."
[24:00]
O'Brien: "The U.S. has a vibrant economy and a good legal system, but Trump is taking a sledgehammer to important parts of the American experiment, overturning the rule of law, civil rights, and economic rationality."

Closing Remarks: Charlie Sykes wraps up the episode by reiterating the importance of staying informed and engaged in political discourse, reminding listeners that "we are not the crazy ones."

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the key discussions, insights, and conclusions from the episode, providing a clear and engaging overview for those who haven't had the chance to listen.

Loading summary

Transcript71 lines

[00:00]
Ryan Reynolds
Instacart is on a mission to have you not leave the couch this basketball season because between the pre game rituals and the post game interviews, it can be difficult to find time for everything else. So let Instacart take care of your game day snacks or weekly restocks and get delivery in as fast as 30 minutes because we hear it's bad luck to be hungry on game day. So download the Instacart app today and enjoy. $0 delivery fees on your first 3 orders. Service fees apply for 3 orders in 14 days. Excludes restaurants. Ryan Reynolds here from Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a.
[00:40]
Charlie Sykes
Thing Mint Mobile unlimited premium wireless.
[00:43]
Tim O'Brien
30, 30.
[00:43]
Charlie Sykes
Better get 30, get 20. 20, 20. Better get 20. 20 better get 15. 15, 15, 15. Just 15 bucks a month. Sold.
[00:49]
Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com SOL upfront payment of $45 for three month plan equivalent to $15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slower after 35 gigabytes of network's busy. Taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[01:10]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[01:14]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.
[01:21]
Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel.
[01:23]
Ryan Reynolds
I wouldn' hear more stories like Jax@unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply.
[01:43]
Charlie Sykes
Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. I am Charlie Sykes on another remarkable weekend. But then, what weekend isn't remarkable? I'm joined by Tim o' Brien, who is the senior editor. I'm sorry, senior executive editor of Bloomberg Opinion. I wanted to get the whole title in there, Tim, so.
[01:59]
Tim O'Brien
It's a mouthful, Charlie. I'm sorry for that.
[02:01]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, well, I was really anxious to talk with you today. You know, you and I were just reflecting though, about, you know, once again, this has almost become a cliche, how fast things move. That a week ago where, you know, we have the bombing in Iran. The week before that we had all the LA clashes, the LA clashes in the, in the, you know, sending the Marines into Los Angeles at the time seemed like, you know, this was going to be the biggest story of the summer, and now you're going, yeah. Was that like two weeks ago? I mean, things move so fast and the zone is so full all the time, every single day.
[02:36]
Tim O'Brien
And meanwhile, the Trumps are pursuing new business ventures, which we can talk about. And just this week, Trump managed to pay down the debt that has been hanging over his head on one of his most valuable properties in New York. And we all have to wonder, like, well, where did he suddenly get the resources to do that? I mean, I think we know at least, you know, crypto and other goodies. But all of these questions about how he's monetizing the White House are also getting swept away by the news cycle.
[03:05]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I'm glad you mentioned that, because I was looking at the piece that you wrote about a week ago. Feels like a month ago or a lifetime ago. Trump Mobile joins the Oval Office sales parade. You know, the fact that they, they're rolling out their own mobile thing. And again, this is, it's, it's the graft and the corruption in broad daylight. It's so breathtaking. And yet, as you point out, if, you know, I looked at this and I thought, well, that was only a week ago. I thought that was like months ago. And it barely made one news cycle. Right. That you. That the Trump family has just launched another probably multimillion dollar grift.
[03:39]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah. And one of the things they said when they rolled out their telephone, Charlie, you know, because it was as it always is with these things with the Trump, it's part political grandstanding along with business ventures, because I think they're just throwing as much mud against the wall as they can to see what sticks. But on this one, they said, you know, and of course, the Trump phone will be made in the USA and those in all big caps, which anyone who's in the, you know, telecommunications business knows the reason that people don't make phones entirely in the United States is because it's financially impossible to do that. They'd be, they'd have to sell us 5000, 6000, $7000 phone if they were to do that. And about a week after they made this announcement, they said, oh, yeah, we'll probably have to manufacture it elsewhere, which, you know, even the Trumps can't reshore American manufacturing despite Trump's tariff wars. But the larger thing, as you point out, is that these ventures channel cash ultimately directly right back into Trump's pocket while he's sitting in the Oval Office. And it's, you know, when you start to turn the White House into a Giant, you know, shingle machine for business and cash machine. It's, it degrades the office, it degrades good government. I don't think that's a partisan issue. It's a good governance.
[05:00]
Charlie Sykes
Are you suggesting that the founding fathers did not intend the, the White House to be the world's greatest atm? That this was not their plan?
[05:09]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah, you know, they couldn't even imagine an ATM back there. But they did have, you know, that great word emoluments that all of those great 18th century, we got this covered. Bribes. Yeah. Because they couldn't have imagined that the White House actually would become a Walmart or an atm, because I don't think they envisioned someone like Trump ever holding the office.
[05:34]
Charlie Sykes
Well, that's the flaw. And of course, figuring that they thought they handled it. So, one last comment from your piece about all of this. It's not just the graph. It is this blending together of government power for personal gain, as you point out, like your last paragraph. So what are the chances that Trump will use his son's new mobile venture as a reason to lean on AT&T Verizon and T Mobile to give his children or the market they inhabit favorable treatment in exchange for some form of regulatory or business relief? Probably just as good as the chances of money from the cellular startup finding its way into Trump's coffers. I mean, this is the, the problem is that he is, will nakedly leverage these various, you know, these various deals for, not just for his own benefit, but to, you know, put pressure on other companies to bend to his will. And this.
[06:23]
Tim O'Brien
Absolutely. And, you know, the cellular thing is, is small potatoes financially. I mean, for an average American, if you had some venture that would spin out 10 to $50 million, you would have been in a gold mine. But we have to remember what Trump's doing with crypto. You know, they're harvesting billions of dollars from their own trafficking in, in meme coins and crypto and crypto exchanges that they have direct ownership of, while Trump simultaneously is trying to deregulate the industry and bring crypto into the Treasury Department as an asset to be held by the US Government. All of it is self dealing and it involves billions of dollars. And it is not in the interest of, for the economy or for businesses.
[07:14]
Charlie Sykes
We're putting America first. So there's so much that I want to talk with you about. Of course, we're probably not going to get to Friday's big Supreme Court document dump, but it'll be for another podcast. But I want to get your Take on what's happening in New York with the mayor's race, what it means for Democrats. We probably ought to notice this is the one year anniversary of the famous Trump Biden debate, only a year ago. But let's start with. Well, I'm going to start with this, the day of rage on, on Thursday where after the initial reports came out from the Defense Intelligence Agency that perhaps we had not completely obliterated Iran's nuclear capability, Donald Trump, I mean, he went off, he, I mean, and he deployed. Pete Hegseth, he deployed, I mean, everybody out there this. And again, even by Trumpian standards, it did seem he was a bit rattled by it. And you have this rage against the media now, again, not new Trump attacking the media. But I don't know, were you struck by just the level of the personal viciousness and his absolute commitment to basically create his own reality, regardless of the evidence? So just what was your reaction to that day of rage, including the attacks on CNN reporters and Fox Reports? You have the President of the United States tweeting out or zeeting out in all caps that these people should be fired. I mean, this is, it feels like.
[08:36]
Tim O'Brien
And that they're, that they're one more line, that they're evil. Yes, they're evil on top of it. They should be fired. They should be evil. They're evil and they should be fired. It's the worst kind of propagandizing and thuggery that you can engage in from the White House. And it's not new. Actually, any time he's challenged, particularly when he gets caught out flat out on the fact pattern, we could talk to that specifically about Iran. But he's cycled through this his whole life. His whole life. Back when he was almost on the edge of personal bankruptcy in the early 90s, he routinely, in interviews, when journalists asked him, is your whole thing going down the tubes? He'd whip off his microphone and walk out of the interview or he'd shout that his business was great, the media was just taking cheap shots at him. You know, the, the consequences of all this are so much more significant now, obviously, because he's the President United States and he just, you know, unleashed an epic missile barrage on Iran, potentially deepening the US his own involvement in a, in a Middle Eastern war. And you know, the, if you look back, what happened Since October of 2023 when Hamas attacked and murdered innocent Israelis and the war that's come out of that, the geopolitical map in the Middle east has been reordered in a way I don't think people could have anticipated, and I don't think this is over yet. Obviously, there's still a horrid affair and mess in Gaza that needs to be reordered. But Syria has been essentially defenestrated militarily, Hezbollah and Hamas subjugated. And now Iran has been, I think, at a minimum, humbled. Deeply humbled. Deeply humbled and. And potentially derailed. And Trump could come out and simply say, we've let Iran know what we're willing to do to stop them from making a nuclear weapon because we don't trust one in their hands. We think we've set their efforts back significantly, but we still need some intelligence gathering and other things to do. But believe me, if they do this again, we'll do this again, and they should know that, and that's a good message. But because he can't, because he looks at this, the world, in this kind of juvenile World Wrestling Federation way, he needs to say, we obliterated the whole thing. It will never function again. They've been set back decades when that's not what intelligence briefings seem to indicate and it's not what military briefings indicate. And then, of course, when quite rationally, the media says, we don't know yet, Trump has his back on his heels and goes in the attack, and he feels slighted, he feels challenged, and he should be challenged because he's not telling the truth, by all accounts.
[11:42]
Charlie Sykes
Well, to see, you made a really excellent point here, that this could have been finessed. He could have taken the victory lap. He could have said, okay, we think we did a lot of damage. But the key point here is we have told Iran what we are capable of doing because we will not ever tolerate a nuclear Iran. Okay? Defensible position, keeps his options open. I wonder whether he's putting himself in a box here because he's in 100% denial. And I wrote this the other day, you know, by saying that, you know, no, it's gone. You know, I essentially removed the threat. Well, what if, in fact, it turns out you haven't? Does he have to say, well, I was wrong. That's why we have to bomb again? I mean, he is really.
[12:20]
Tim O'Brien
No, you know, Charlie, he'll never say that. You know, I know that was wrong. Right? He'll say, someone in my administration misled me or someone else gave me bad information, but what I said at the time I thought was true. And, you know, core, his core followers always will accept that from him, and he knows it, and he's got you know, going after the media plays.
[12:47]
Charlie Sykes
Well, it does, it does. Although there was something about this. I mean, I did think, I mean, again, none of this is new and we feel like we go through this, but just the level of thin skinnedness on this one, I mean, he obviously thought that this was the signature moment of his entire presidency. Everything hung on it. And when that leak came out, I mean, he was just in incandescent with rage about it. And the fact that they're taking such extreme steps, you know, his rhetoric is extreme. But also now they're going to limit the sharing of intelligence with Congress. Okay, so by the way, every single podcast we had to talk about this. Like, Tim, what's your best memory of when we had a Congress? Where's Congress in all of this?
[13:36]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah, you know, I think you can start to chart that downward slope from the Newt Gingrich era to the present where more weight was placed on partisan infighting and public shaming than legislating. And it's, you know, I think that the United States is a country that used to solve epic problems and be an example of the world around so many things. Education, transportation, economic growth, civil rights, on and on and on. And now, you know, we, we, we have crumbling bridges, crumbling infrastructure, a very messy fiscal, dangerously messy fiscal picture. Trump hasn't accomplished any of the fiscal rectitude measures he promised on the campaign trail, and he won't. And I think the Congress is just, it's like a frat house. It's a frat house. It's not a legislative body.
[14:36]
Charlie Sykes
Well, and, but it is about to pass perhaps, you know, the huge omnibus bill, the big beautiful bill, which also is. Now, I want this, this is a nonpartisan point now. What a shitty way to legislate the way. And this has been done by both parties. They come up with omnibus, then it becomes the chromnibus, then it becomes the big beautiful bill. And there are no hearings, there's no debate. It's all, you know, in the back rooms, you know, making changes that nobody may know about until the bill is actually passed. I mean, it's just a terrible way of legislating. But give me your sense on where we're at with the big beautiful bill.
[15:12]
Tim O'Brien
We are fully in the throes of voodoo. We are not in the throes of budget making. Everyone in Washington has already pointed out that there's almost $5 trillion in debt at the federal level. The U.S. government, the taxpayers are on the hook for, and the goal was to try to find ways to Dramatically reduce that. And it's not complex how you do that. You raise taxes and cut spending in some balance. It's palatable to voters in the same way we all manage the budgets in our own households. But the GOP wants to enshrine the tax cuts, the TCJA from Trump's first term. And without doing any meaningful budget cutting, they're not really doing anything to entitlement programs, which is where all the federal spending is. As we know, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and defense spending account for payments on the debt. Payments on the debt.
[16:24]
Charlie Sykes
They're kind of ravaging Medicare. Yeah, but I mean, yeah, they're saying.
[16:28]
Tim O'Brien
They'Re going to do that. They're saying they're going to do that, but it still is not what they have. Now, by their own measure, when they began this process of the House was going to add another 4 to 5 trillion to the existing 5 trillion. And that was when they started. They're now saying that they're actually going to cut 11 trillion. I don't know how they get there. And that within, I think, six months, you'll get a 10% GDP bump, which is complete science fiction. And they're pretending that the tax cuts don't exist to get there. They're just pretending. They're like, it's a shell game. And this is not traditional conservative budget making. This is not traditional Republican budget making. That's just irresponsible math done to protect pork and fiscal measures that aren't rational or productive.
[17:28]
Charlie Sykes
You know, I try not to get too deeply into the weeds of this kabuki dance that goes on, you know, in terms of the votes. But my gut sense, and I want to get your sense, is that something will pass. I mean, people talk about it being derailed or it's a big, beautiful mess or anything. You know, this is one of those bills that they eventually will pass something huge. Right. I mean, he's going, donald Trump will get the win. Although, by the way, if you're a legislator, you also ought to be aware of the possibility that you spend all this political capital on this bill, send it to Trump. Trump gets too much heat about this cut or this thing there, and he goes, this is a terrible bill. I'm gonna send it back and I'm gonna make them pay. He could throw them under the bus. Right, but they're gonna get the bill, right?
[18:13]
Tim O'Brien
Yeah. I mean, I think just watching some of the stirrings within the Senate over the last couple of days, I think that Thune has gotten indications that his Caucus may not be holding together. I do think Trump wants this by July 4th. As you know, he loves performance art, and he would love to announce this on July 4th, so it may go through. The other thing is a lot of the cuts they're pursuing, particularly some of the infrastructure spending and the clean energy spending that came out of the Biden era, a lot of that went to red states, and, and red state voters are going to lose jobs and, and the Medicaid cuts. You know, the degree to which there are, you know, voters in red states who are deeply dependent on Medicaid and Medicare is, I think, could have electoral consequences as well. And, and I don't know in this rush to get it done BY or by July 4, how closely the GOP has thought through the electoral consequences of this. Next year's midterms are going to be a very telling referendum, I think, around a lot of things, including the economy.
[19:31]
Charlie Sykes
Oh, no, they will. And, you know, before we get to. I want to get to the New York City thing, but, you know, let's just shift for a moment to immigration, because the immigration is, you know, continues to be a, you know, the obsession of the administration, and they continue to escalate their tactics and what they are doing. I am struck by. I was struck by the most recent Quinnipiac poll that really shows a shift in public opinion against the immigration crackdown, that, in fact, people are much more open to pathways to citizenship. And the approval rating for ICE is deeply underwater right now. So if somebody would have asked me earlier, what would Donald Trump's big strength be, I would have said, okay, that, you know, immigration is going to be his card. He thinks it's his card. He thinks that sending the troops into L. A was a huge win. It's not turning out that way, is it, Tim?
[20:26]
Tim O'Brien
No, Charlie. This is a really important thing to focus on because the tailwinds he had when he came into office, I think immigration was a key, a key issue that was a winning issue for him, along with promises to end inflation, which he's done an epic potential cell phone on that with his tariff policy. But putting that aside, I think Americans have gotten educated because of everything that's happening around immigration, about what the dimensions of our immigration problems really are. And it is a problem. I think the southern border has been too porous.
[21:00]
Charlie Sykes
Sure.
[21:02]
Tim O'Brien
And for border states, it's a difficult thing to manage. But what we've also learned is that there are a number of important industries in the United States that depend on migrant labor, and those immigrants aren't simply coming across the border to commit crimes or the other kind of cartoonish depictions of that population of immigrants that Trump is made. Our own system is not outfitted to document those folks properly in a way that both them and their employers can live with it in a transparent and by the books way. So people are finding ways around that, but they're vital cogs in the economic machinery. And then secondarily, and I think it's heartening, is Americans don't want problems like this addressed by people in black masks descending in a military fashion on businesses and neighborhoods, because this isn't Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia. And I think that's heartening. And you got a glimmer of this. I remember back in the spring when Chuck Grassley went home into a deep red district back in his home state and did a town hall and he got creamed on immigration issues. And I thought, wow, if that's happening to Grassley in a friendly district in a red state, the GOP needs of attention to that. I think that's continuing to play out. And I think it says a lot about, I think, Americans trying to decide where the immigration problem actually resides and what's the best way to approach it. And I don't think they want Stephen Miller's mass deportation program.
[22:39]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, and this is Stephen Miller, you can just say it's the ham handedness, the crudity of it. This all comes, you know, springs from the head of Stephen Miller. But, you know, it does feel as if the American public is being educated on this or being forced to focus on it, the specifics. And I think once again, we're seeing the power of stories. We're seeing the power of the pictures, these images, because as we're talking about this, I think, you know, most people will have in their mind's eye, you know, the picture of, you know, mass agents beating the shit out of, you know, a lawn care worker, you know, who's. Whose sons were in the military, all of that sort of thing. And, and the stories have been very, very compelling. And I think Donald Trump assumed the narrative would be, you know, one gang member, one drug dealer, one rapist, you know, deported from the country. And that's not the story. What we're hearing about is, you know, the, the beloved woman who worked in the hardware store, or, you know, the, the spouse of somebody that, you know, is a teacher.
[23:36]
Tim O'Brien
The spouse of a military veteran. The spouse of a military veteran. Exactly.
[23:39]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah. I mean, yeah. And these are just terrible, terrible stories. And so I am also heartened by this, that this is kind of a Rorschach test for American decency, that you look at these pictures and do you say, is that the America you want? Do you think that's fair? And pretty big numbers of Americans are saying, no, that that was not what I, what I bought into.
[24:01]
Tim O'Brien
Well, and I think one of the facets of Trump's existence in our political and social and business lives is that it's forcing people to think about what they want out of their society in a very deep way and then to decide whether or not they're going to stand up around that. And I think the US because we have such a, you know, a vibrant and massive economy and a good legal system, I think it's been easy for people over the years to say, well, eventually these things all iron out and it all gets secured. A rising tide lifts all boats and Trump comes into the vacuum and basically says, I don't care if the tide is rising. I'm going to take my sledgehammer to various important parts of the American experiment. Let's see if you can live with that. Overturning the rule of law and civil rights and economic rationality, and on and on and on. And I think it's heartening to see people pushing back against that.
[25:06]
Charlie Sykes
It is. And for people who think that this is sort of the end times, and I can sympathize with that. But there's also this opportunity for clarification that you just described, and I do sense that that's going on, that for the first time people are thinking like, why is due process important? Why is the rule of law so valuable? What do I want to deny Freedom? Yeah. How big do I want government to be? How much power should the government have over civil society? All of these things are clarifying moments. Okay, so speaking of clarifying moments or non clarifying moments, I really want to get your take on what just happened in New York. You've been watching this very, very closely. Andrew Cuomo, one of the most deeply flawed candidates you can imagine, goes down in flames. But the big headline story is Democrats have nominated a Democratic socialist. But a specific kind of. And I get a lot of blowback. Don't call him a socialist. You got to call him a Democratic socialist. He is a Democratic socialist of America candidate, dsa. I would urge people go read the platform of dsa. It is not a centrist platform. All right, deep breath here, because I know a lot of people don't want to hear this, but. Tim o' Brien, what did you. What was your take on, on that and what it means I want to get into. And also what does it mean for national Democrats? Positively and negatively.
[26:28]
Tim O'Brien
But let's, well, I think, let's talk national, local and national again, I guess on national, I think, I think the issue for Democrats that this falls into, it's the broader bucket of what is the Democrats message to voters that unites a party that's always been splintered by its progressive left and its moderate center when it's battling a Republican Party that's split between traditional Republicans but has had a lot of its mojo overtaken by Trump and maga. Maga right. And MAGA populism. And I think that, you know, the 2024 election I think showed that Democrats hadn't fine tuned their message enough. And I think there's now, I think there was some cohesion in the party in the Biden years about finding things that worked because they wanted to make sure Trump didn't get reelected. And progressive Democrats who went along with that, I think ultimately felt, well, what do we get out of this? And I think particularly young voters, young Democrats are turned off and they want something more vibrant. So wherever Mandani's ideology resides on the campaign trail, his appeal in New York to young voters, which Andrew Cuomo himself recognized. Cuomo tried to run a basement campaign ala Biden in 2020 and it didn't work. And I think he thought it was his race to lose and it wasn't. But the party is, you know, going to have to deal with Donald Trump collectively saying that Chuck Schumer, AOC and the new mayor elect, well, the primary victor in New York are, are, are not so commie leftists who are going to burn the country down, basically. And for him it's a gift.
[28:22]
Charlie Sykes
But he would have said that anyway, right? I mean people, he would have said that anyway. Get on that is. But now he's got a guy who goes, I am a socialist and is attached to this very specific agenda. I'm sorry.
[28:35]
Tim O'Brien
Well, but I think then the next step politically is how savvy is Mandani going to be. And since Andrew Cuomo was in this race, we can quote his, I think far savvier father, his late father Mario, who said, you know, campaigning is, is poetry and governance is prose. And so I think we need to wait and see how Mandani governs. And if he wins.
[29:11]
Charlie Sykes
And is it, are you assuming that he, that he wins? I mean, there's a lot of word that there was a lot of.
[29:16]
Tim O'Brien
Well, I mean, I think he Established. Resolved. Yeah. I think till that's resolved, we're, you know, we're talking hypotheticals. I don't, I can't imagine New York voters are going to go for Eric Adams again here. Maybe there's a write in candidate who could come in. Cuomo suggested he'd run as an independent. But I think what Cuomo has learned is that he's so flawed. You know, New Yorkers aren't as forgiving of sexual harassment allegations as Trump's own voters are of liaisons with porn stars. So that's just not going to fly in New York, I think, with Democratic voters. So I think there's a very good chance he wins. And then the question is, what does he do with that victory and how does he choose to unite the party and create a coalition that he can be an example of, a coalition that could win at the national level? And I think he's going to have to figure out, you know, he's a young man, he's in his early 30s. I think some of his voters, you know, I remember one voter saying, you know, he ran the state in an interview after the election. He ran the state of Finland, you know, yeah, yeah, of course he can. You know, he'll be greater in the city. I'm thinking to myself, this is the kind of thing that Trump, people say about Trump. You know, scribing talent simply doesn't have, you know, Malnani was a state assemblyman, he didn't run the state and he's a young assemblyman. And so we'll have to see. There's a lot managerially and policy making that we'll have to see. But in the current environment, it's a marketing gift to Trump.
[31:02]
Charlie Sykes
Okay, it is. And I think there's a lot of denial about a couple of things, including the fact, you know, this will be nationalized. And I've noticed a lot of the smart folks who say, well, no, all politics is local. And why would the mayor of New York be nationalized? It's because. Have you been paying attention to the last 10 years of what happens in politics? You find a target and that person can become the face of the party. And this is the marketing gift to Donald Trump, especially because now Democrats are in the weird position of having gone from, you know, don't call us socialists. We're not socialists. We're capitalists. We're not socialists, too. Well, maybe we are socialists and there's nothing wrong with that. And this may play in a New York City primary, but it is not going to play in any state or district that will determine the majority and who wins these elections. And I mean, I think, I think.
[31:55]
Tim O'Brien
Though, Charlie, the issues, the issues that have surfaced in this are still national issues that I think both parties have to deal with. You know, affordable housing, jobs, you know, equitable standard of living, who, whatever path people take towards solving those. I think this election showed that voters, particularly young voters, are concerned about them.
[32:18]
Charlie Sykes
Well, okay, that's true, but, and again, we're talking about somebody who has a long track record of quotes that will be used against him, you know, on Israel. On Israel, you know, on, I mean, here's somebody who says he would arrest Benjamin Netanyahu if he comes to New York, was refused to, to distance himself from, globalize the intifada or, you know, from the river to the sea. And so I just wonder whether or not this is sifted down, you know, when people begin to say, you know, we actually have someone here who has one of the most militant, anti Israel, pro Palestinian positions. And again, how does that play outside? Who is, you know, called for defunding the police, government run grocery stores. Now, on the one hand, I do understand, like, we have to like push back against the oligarchy, but I'm not sure that government run grocery stores is the way to bring down the oligarchy. And so there are all of these issues and we will see whether or not this 33 year old state assemblyman has the savvy to now begin to explain this, because the situation for Democrats is just horrible. If they endorse him, then they are endorsing a democratic socialist of America who has all of these positions that, you know, again, I'm not saying he's anti Semitic, but that is going to be a big theme out there. If they don't endorse him, if they back away, you have this younger, more progressive base that will feel betrayed and the party will fracture. So this is, this creates massive problems for the Democrats. And I think there's the moment where people are distracted by the bright, shiny objects of the fact that he's charismatic, he's young, he's cool, he actually did get young voters. These are all great things. But then I feel like there's this massive baggage in the shadows that's about to come out.
[34:02]
Tim O'Brien
And I think that that's going to be, I mean, he's going to be turned into a pinata by the GOP and around all of the issues, you just cite it and how he responds to those and how the party responds to it are Going to be very telling.
[34:20]
Charlie Sykes
I think it is. It is going to be telling. And I think that there's a tendency right now to sort of underestimate the fall, the fallout from all of this. And, you know, on my comments on Substack, it was, it was interesting. I mean, we live in a period of, I think of, you know, ideological malleability, let's put it this way. But the number of people who are going, well, I've never thought about it before, but why wouldn't we have, you know, government run grocery stores? Why shouldn't we try socials? Why shouldn't we nationalize, you know, all means of production and like, wait, guys, five minutes ago, you never would have said you were in favor of those things. But I think that there's a, I guess, and I think I mentioned this look at.
[35:01]
Tim O'Brien
Go ahead. No, go ahead. Sorry, I interrupted you.
[35:03]
Charlie Sykes
The level at which people can sort of delude themselves into saying, well, you know what, maybe defunding the police is not such a terrible idea. Well, no, it politically is a terrible idea. If you want to defeat Trumpism, don't talk yourselves into it. Now, the other factor is, of course, you have the right wing, you have Republicans who are making these violently, you know, these violent, racist attacks on him. And so there's a rallying around, there's a backlash. I just, you know, unfortunately, as you and I have both seen in politics, there is that sense that when your guy is attacked to go on the defense, even if, you know, you don't want to be on that team. I didn't say that very clearly, but I'm sorry, what do we, you know.
[35:50]
Tim O'Brien
Well, I mean, you know, we've always said with, with Trump that, you know, reality intrudes when he's, when he's, when he's, you know, in his latest fit of frenzy around any policy or public issue. And I think the same is going to be true with Madnani. I think that he's, I think that he is, for example, on housing. He said that he wants to deal with the housing crisis by embracing rent control and then finding a huge swath of land in the New York metro area to build affordable housing on. Now, I do think there's a problem with affordable housing and it should be addressed. It's going to be focused on that. But he then acquires all this land, what developers are going to want to build there, if the rent control, if the housing all has rent control associated with it. What. And then if you, if it's not going to be Private sector builders who. Who do it, then where is he going to find the tax revenue to build the housing himself? Through the government, which has been a model a lot of local governments have been moving away from. So is it a public private partnership? Well, then again, how many private entities want to get involved with this? If rent control exists, he's going to have to sort through all of the fiscal and infrastructure realities that are entailed with that, which is a very. Tied into that, which is a very different thing than simply saying, I'll solve this with rent control and buying up a lot of land and developing it and the rubber is going to meet the road for him very quickly on issues like that, I think.
[37:25]
Charlie Sykes
Yeah, I think it will. I'm still interested to see how the Democratic establishment, what they do. And I agree with you that I can't imagine Eric Adams making a comeback. But we've seen stranger things in politics. I've seen stranger and odder things happen. I think a lot depends.
[37:48]
Tim O'Brien
Trump got reelected.
[37:50]
Charlie Sykes
Well, yes. I mean, we live in an age in which Trump, as a convicted felon, got reelected. Eric Adams has been, you know, I don't know. It is interesting how a city the size of New York has such a run of shitty mayors. I mean, you go from Bill de Blasio to Eric Adams, but you just never know what's going to happen if there's sort of a shock factor. And the reality is that a lot of big cities have questionable mayors. And you're going to hear a lot about what's going on in Chicago, where the progressive, young, charismatic mayor there has an approval rating of below 20%, doesn't he?
[38:32]
Tim O'Brien
He does. And I think. I think it's a referendum on a lot of things. I think one is cities are complex to manage, so you want people as mayor who are good managers. You know, the New York City budget, I think, is bigger than all but five states. So it's a. It's, you know, it is a giant operation. It is. It is racially and ethnically diverse. It has a vast public school system. It has immigrant immigrants populating neighborhoods who need to be assimilated and are vital to the city's health. It has all sorts of infrastructure challenges and on and on and on and on. And that's mirrored, as you noted, I think, in many ways in other cities right now, from Chicago to Boston to Philadelphia, Miami, Portland, Seattle, Los Angeles, San Francisco, you name it. And in every one of those cases, I think the first thing you need to do is a good manager who knows how to align services with revenues and, and think about what the city's life should look like. And I think you're seeing that right now. It's just a challenge for all mayors. And I think secondly, you've got a guy in the White House who's routinely saying cities are hell holes despite the fact that people love living in them. And they've often been very shiny beacons for the best of American life. This guy who was born and bred in New York, earned his living there, is saying cities are just worthless dumps. And he's doing everything he can to sort of get federal support for them out of the way. So it's a challenging time to be a mayor and you would want something better than a cast of cartoon characters running for office.
[40:13]
Charlie Sykes
So this is an important point for folks out there that actually mayors have, are some of the most consequential public officials in America because they're not just legislators. They, they can really turn things around. I used to be a City hall reporter and went to a lot of the National Conference of Mayors back, back in the day. And at the time, I remember, you know, in the, you know, 70s and 80s and 90s, you know, you would watch how you have a bad mayor and they could destroy a city that they, I mean, but. And a really, really good mayor could have just dramatic effects on changing the trajectory of a city. I don't know of any other specific government official who has that much sort of, you know, tactile impact that you can see in real time in a city, you know, how much a good mayor of New York can turn the city around, how much a bad mayor can, you know, bring it to the brink. And you're seeing that in Chicago and Los Angeles and Seattle and Portland and, well, you know, Detroit and Milwaukee as well. So this is a great point. Tim o' Brien, thank you so much for joining me. Our audience always appreciates your input. And thank you all for listening to this episode of to the Country. I'm Charlie Sachs. You know why we do this? We have to do this several times a week just to remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones.
[41:37]
Ryan Reynolds
Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[41:48]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[41:51]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stent placed in his heart, preventing a massive heart attack.
[41:58]
Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel I wouldn't be here.
[42:01]
Ryan Reynolds
Hear more stories like Jack's at unitedhealthcare.com benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply. Ryan Reynolds here from Int Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up, we thought we'd bring our prices down. So to help us we brought in a reverse auctioneer which is is apparently.
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Charlie Sykes
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Ryan Reynolds
Give it a try@mintmobile.com Switch upfront payment of 45 for three month plan equivalent to 15 per month required new customer offer for first three months only. Speed slow after 35 gigabytes of networks busy taxes and fees extra. See mint mobile.com Heather is a nurse practitioner from UnitedHealthcare. We meet patients wherever they live. During a house call, she found Jack had an issue. Jack's blood pressure was dangerously high.
[42:53]
Tim O'Brien
It was 217 over 110.
[42:56]
Ryan Reynolds
So they got Jack to the hospital and got him the help he needed. He had had a stamp placed in his heart preventing a massive heart attack.
[43:03]
Tim O'Brien
If it wasn't for my guardian angel, I wouldn't be here.
[43:06]
Ryan Reynolds
Hear more stories like Jack's at United States Benefits, features and or devices vary by plan. Area limitation and exclusions apply.
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Charlie Sykes
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Ryan Reynolds
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