Trump’s Bread and Circuses Moment

Summary

Summary: "Trump’s Bread and Circuses Moment"

To The Contrary with Charlie Sykes | May 28, 2026
Guests: Adam Kinzinger
Theme: Dissecting Trump-era Republicanism, corruption, and the startling spectacle of politics as performance, and what all this means for the future of democracy.

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Main Theme

The episode centers on Donald Trump's increasing embrace of spectacle and corruption as defining features of his political dominance. Charlie Sykes and Adam Kinzinger analyze the recent construction of a UFC octagon on the White House lawn (“bread and circuses”), the GOP’s internal fractures after the Texas primary, the ramifications of loyalty tests, systemic corruption, emerging oligarchy, American decline, and the struggle over heroism and national values. The tone is incredulous, urgent, and at times darkly humorous.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The UFC Octagon at the White House: "Bread and Circuses"

• [02:04–06:24]
  • Charlie: Highlights the symbolism of a UFC cage at the White House for Trump’s and America’s birthdays, drawing parallels to the decadence of late Rome.
  • Adam: Expresses disgust, calling it “a kind of orgy of violence” reminiscent of Roman gladiatorial games. Laments that the public seems to want this kind of spectacle:

    “Supposed to be above like that... this is insane. For the 250th anniversary of America, we’re going to have people beat the living shit out of each other on the steps of the White House.” (Kinzinger, 05:04)

  • Charlie: Calls it “a bread and circuses moment,” pointing out the glaring unseriousness and decline it represents.

---

2. Shock at Trump’s Ongoing Corruption – Even Among His Past Supporters

• [06:24–08:42]
  • Charlie plays a soundbite of Megyn Kelly expressing “shock” at Trump’s self-dealing:

    “This is Megyn Kelly, who endorsed him in 2024... the convicted felon who tried to overthrow the government... who’s been a con man his whole life, and did not expect this level of corruption.” (Sykes, 06:41)

  • Adam: Mocks this belated realization, likening it to “shocked, shocked, that there’s gambling in this establishment.” He recounts historical scandals like Teapot Dome for comparison:

    “This has been the most corrupt president ever to exist… The corruption of the Trump administration is so great that it feels unreal.” (Kinzinger, 07:19)

---

3. The GOP Senate “Slush Fund” Rebellion & Intraparty Fallout

• [08:42–10:53]
  • Charlie: Senators privately “screaming” about the insurrectionist slush fund; Ted Cruz refused to back a reconciliation bill.
  • Adam: Sees cracks but not a “full break”—calls it “breaking season,” where GOP senators, free from immediate electoral pressures, start to speak out. Trump’s attacks on seeming loyalists are destabilizing his own coalition:

    “He’s almost moved his lame duck period to today... he’s basically destroying his own majority.” (Kinzinger, 10:34)

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4. The Texas Primary: Cornyn’s Defeat as a Loyalty Test

• [10:53–16:45]
  • Charlie: John Cornyn, a long-serving and well-liked Texas senator, “annihilated” by Ken Paxton—a Trump-endorsed, scandal-plagued figure.
  • Adam: Emphasizes Cornyn was loyal—proposed naming a highway after Trump—yet it wasn’t enough. The real lesson:

    “If you are not on your knees in front of Donald Trump begging for his love, you will absolutely be crushed.” (Kinzinger, 12:41)

  • This raises fears for democratic resilience:

    “The Republican Party has built a core group of people that now cannot say no to the president. That ability to stand independent has been crushed.” (Kinzinger, 15:08)

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5. Is Texas Now in Play for Democrats? The Perils of Overconfidence

• [16:45–19:58]
  • Adam: Sees a real but fragile opportunity for Dems—Paxton’s “egregious corruption” alienates many traditional Republicans, but warns about left-leaning positions backfiring:

    “If [Talarico] can stay center... he’s got a great shot. But what you don’t want is to make this the white whale that sucks in $200 million and then Democrats lose.” (Kinzinger, 19:43)

• Charlie: Echoes that a massive investment is risky unless tied to substantive shifts.

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6. Corruption as a Central Campaign Issue

• [21:48–27:59]

  • Charlie: Quotes Paul Waldman—“It’s the corruption, stupid”—suggesting the Democrats’ 2026 strategy should center on the historic scope of Trump-era corruption.
  • Adam: Ties together economic inequality, political corruption, and “a Hunger Games class” ruling the country:

    “They’re building this kind of Hunger Games class that’s going to just watch us fight each other for their own entertainment... it’s all related.” (Kinzinger, 27:19)

• Charlie: Raises "Do we really need billionaires?"—connecting corruption, oligarchic dominance, and loss of opportunity.

  • Adam: Warns that “when your ability to make money or the money you have begins to deprive me of my rights... that comes into conflict with the founding principles of this country.” (Kinzinger, 29:21)

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7. America’s Declining Democratic and Economic Promises

• [29:46–32:04]
  • Charlie: Illustrates everyday inequity—credit rates, taxes, the vanishing “American Dream.”

    “The fundamental American value is you work hard, you play by the rules and you will get ahead. Do people have that kind of faith in the system? And when that breaks down, I think we’re in a dangerous political moment.” (Sykes, 30:26)

  • Adam: Links it to the creation of a “permanent untouchable class,” arguing Dems should run on restoring “equal opportunity, not equal outcomes.” (Kinzinger, 31:45)

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8. America’s Foreign Policy Drift: The Iran Quagmire

• [32:04–39:04]
  • Charlie: Trump’s public dithering—first signaling “peace is at hand” with Iran, then backtracking after blowback, leaves the U.S. in a posture of confusion and weakness.
  • Adam: Calls this “the worst possible outcome,” attributes it to Trump’s narcissism and shortsightedness.

    “Donald Trump knows that he’s not going to be here in probably a decade... so his whole thing is, is I’m going to cut a deal that is going to be good for me now and the long-term implications is less important.” (Kinzinger, 33:24)

  • Charlie: The world sees America as a “paper tiger with a weak leader.” Sheds alliances, loses leverage, and exposes strategic vulnerabilities:

    “That’s what happens when you shed your alliances... if you’re the big guy in the bar with no friends, somebody’s gonna take a swing.” (Kinzinger, 37:29)

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9. War, Technology, and Being “Stuck in 1987”

• [39:04–41:51]
  • Charlie: No one predicted the impact of drones—a humbling fact for U.S. military planners.
  • Adam: U.S. way behind—only 50,000 drones compared to Ukraine’s 6 million annual use. Calls for a radical rethink of procurement and military doctrine, warning Trump’s instincts are dangerously outdated:

    “If any administration can do this... they can be celebrated... But we’re not doing that, Charlie.” (Kinzinger, 40:35)

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10. Tulsi Gabbard’s Departure: No Room for Dissent

• [41:51–43:03]
  • Charlie: Notes pattern of women being pushed out of Trump’s cabinet; Gabbard was “a terrible fit” as DNI.
  • Adam: Blunt criticism, even amidst Gabbard’s personal situation:

    “She’s a special kind of bad person... very pro-Russian. You don’t get to... be exempt from criticism.” (Kinzinger, 42:10)

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11. Redefining Heroism for a Cynical Age

• [43:03–48:09]
  • Charlie: Praises Kinzinger’s new children’s book, That's What Heroes Do, for broadening the definition of heroism.
  • Adam:

    “We live in a time where people are just in a desert of inspiration... It’s important to talk about that mindset for young people.” (Kinzinger, 45:40)

  • Charlie: Observes how culture now rewards celebrity and corruption over genuine character, and the older generation’s duty to pass down stories and values.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the White House UFC Event:

  “This is a bread and circuses moment... two grown men, you know, beat the shit out of each other in a UFC mixed martial arts bout on the White House lawn.”
  —Charlie Sykes, [02:53]

• On the Lesson of Cornyn’s Defeat:

  “If you are not on your knees in front of Donald Trump begging for his love, you will absolutely be crushed.”
  —Adam Kinzinger, [12:41]

• On the Culture of Corruption:

  “The corruption of the Trump administration is so great that it feels unreal.”
  —Adam Kinzinger, [07:19]

• On the Oligarchy Question:

  “We are seeing... a vast oligarchy that not only has wealth beyond the dreams of avarice, but then uses that wealth to exert tremendous power, political power, cultural power, economic power.”
  —Charlie Sykes, [27:59]

• On America’s Decline:

  “The rest of the world is looking at it like, holy shit, you’re a paper tiger with a weak leader.”
  —Charlie Sykes, [35:26]

• On the Loss of Faith:

  “The fundamental American value is you work hard, you play by the rules and you will get ahead. Do people have that faith in the system? When that breaks down, I think we’re in a dangerous political moment.”
  —Charlie Sykes, [30:26]

• On the Need to Pass Down Values:

  “The best thing our generations can do is to hand down those stories in the form of values... in a time where there is nothing out there motivating or telling kids that life is about more than just grab everything you can.”
  —Adam Kinzinger, [47:21]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• UFC Octagon at White House/Bread and Circuses: [02:04–06:24]
• Trump Corruption/Megyn Kelly: [06:24–08:42]
• GOP Senate Rebellion: [08:42–10:53]
• Cornyn’s Defeat & Trump’s Loyalty Demands: [10:53–16:45]
• Texas for Dems/Overconfidence: [16:45–19:58]
• Corruption Theme: [21:48–27:59]
• Oligarchy & American Precariousness: [29:46–32:04]
• Iran Policy Debacle: [32:04–39:04]
• Military/Drone Technology Gap: [39:04–41:51]
• Tulsi Gabbard Out: [41:51–43:03]
• Redefining Heroism/Children’s Book: [43:03–48:09]

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Conclusion

The episode paints a dire yet honest portrait of Trump-era American politics: spectacle has replaced substance, loyalty is demanded at the cost of integrity, corruption is no longer subtle but a selling point, and the stakes for democracy are mounting. Sykes and Kinzinger urge listeners: you are not the crazy ones for noticing this. Rebuilding faith, values, and opportunity is imperative—and will require courage, honesty, and a recommitment to the stories that once defined America.

---

Transcript

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[Charlie Sykes]

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[Charlie Sykes]

I'm Charlie Sykes. Welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. Well, Donald Trump's Revenge tour rolls through Texas, which, interestingly enough, will further divide the Republican Party, create all kinds of problems for Donald Trump in the United States Senate, which is not happy with him right now, and puts that state in play for the gop. So Trump's winning doesn't really look all that much like winning. Meanwhile, in case you missed this, there is a giant steel cage going up at the White House. In case you thought that the insidification of the White House was over, this is the octagon that Donald Trump is building for his Ultimate Fighting Championship match, which will take place to honor his birthday and coincidentally also apparently America's birthday. Because what better way to say Happy Birthday, America than to have two grown men, you know, beat the shit out of each other in a UFC mixed martial arts bout? Donald Trump also moves closer to surrendering to Iran. It is a busy, busy week. And joining us to try to make sense of all of this is our good friend, Adam Kinzinger. Adam, I hope you had a good long weekend.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I. You know what? I did, I did. I took. I took, in fact, a day Monday. I didn't really even think about politics, and it was amazing. So I had a good one. I hope you did, too, actually.

[Charlie Sykes]

I did. And given what kind of a summer we're going to have here. So I wanna start with this because, I mean, it's not the most important story, but it kind of feels like another one of those iconic moments. I put it in my newsletter yesterday in case people have missed it. This picture of the gigantic steel octagon going up on the south Lawn of the White House. I mean, I'm kind of wondering if historians of the future, you know, when they chronicle American decline as a symbol of our unseriousness, that this is actually going to happen. We're going to have a UFC match on the White House grounds. And just. Adam, explain it to me.

[Adam Kinzinger]

You know, it's weird because I can't put words to the disgust of this thing. You know what I mean? Because it's like. I guess the best way I can put it is I think of. And I'm not a Roman history buff, but it feels something Roman. Like where they would have the gladiator fights in this.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Like, kind of orgy of violence thing. Right. For the people. And the people, it's what they demand. They want to watch each other, kill each other. And I remember, in fact, yesterday, I tweeted something on about this, like how this is ridiculous and this is a shame. And, you know, some people's response are, oh, you sure have your pulse on the public, because the public wants it. And it's like, maybe the point is, maybe they do. Supposed to be above, like that. Like, kind of visceral. We want to hear.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It's, like, supposed to be this. This professional organization, and this is insane. And it's like. And again, It's. For the 250th anniversary of America, we're going to have people beat the living shit out of each other in front of the American people on the steps of the White House. I don't even begin to understand why people aren't outraged, except, you know, UFC supports Republicans.

[Charlie Sykes]

I guess it is a bread and circuses moment. In fact, this kind of captures it, you know, with. With the ballroom and the arch and all of this. To actually have, like, the gladiators come out and Pete, you know, punch each Other knee, one another, hit one another below the belt while the elites, you know, sip their mint juleps in the stands. There's something about it that kind of captures this quintessential moment. And can people gonna get to, by the way, the whole Texas John Cornyn thing in just a minute? Because you and I both have a lot of thoughts about all that. But what continues to surprise me is that there are people who are coming out now saying, hey, we didn't expect it was going to be this bad. We're kind of surprised. Did you catch Megyn Kelly the other night just to play a little bit of a sound bite of Megyn Kelly who is shocked, shocked, shocked to find out that Donald Trump is. Wait for it. Kind of corrupt.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I have to be honest, I didn't

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expect the corruption to be quite as, you know, widespread as it's been.

[Charlie Sykes]

And like the self dealing and the lining of his and his family's pockets,

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like that's been a little shocking. Talking billions of dollars expect Trump to be so disrespectful of his base.

[Charlie Sykes]

Wait, wait, wait. Donald Trump, shocking. This is Megyn Kelly, who endorsed him in 2024 and, and just did not expect that the convicted felon who had tried to overthrow the government and who spent his entire life as a con man that it would be so widespread. Adam,

[Adam Kinzinger]

it's funny, so in my old district, I used to represent right on the, on the river, the Illinois river, there's this place you drive and then there's this kind of one lane wooden bridge that goes to kind of an island off the river and it's got some cool stuff there. And I was told the history of that is actually that island was owned by the mafia in the 20s, you know, the, because we were pretty close to, to the Al Capone time and that they had, that they had that bridge and there would be a cop there to make sure that, you know, the basically controlled it for the Mafia. I tell you that story because it's like, sir, we're shocked that there's gambling in this establishment. Right. And, and I mean, come on, Megan, this has been the most corrupt president ever to exist in the United States. This shouldn't surprise you. I'm glad you're saying something, but what are you going to do about it? Be visceral. Visceral. Vociferously support, you know, and I mean, look, it's the, the problem here, Charlie, is that the corruption of the Trump administration is actually so great that it feels unreal.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Right. When, when I Was it. I think it was on your show or somebody I was listening to, I don't know, recently, where they talked about the. The fact that the Teapot Dome scandal was basically the equivalent today of one and a half billion dollars.

[Charlie Sykes]

Yes, yes, that was Nicholas. Nicholas Grossman here on this podcast.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, there you go. The fact that one and a half billion dollars is in this reparations fund for the January 6ers, but that's just a fraction of the corruption. And so we would study in school Teapot Dome, but yet this is happening in front of our face. It's unbelievable. Unbelievable.

[Charlie Sykes]

So, speaking of the slush fund, there was a little bit of pushback last week from the senators. Apparently Todd Blanche came in and tried to spin it, and the senators were screaming at him. Even Ted Cruz says they were screaming and decided not to even vote on the reconciliation bill. So. Okay, so, Adam, is this a breaking point for the Republicans? I hesitate to ask because we've been through this so many times, but it did feel that for a lot of Republicans, the slush fund was just one bridge too far. What do you think? Where are we at?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I feel like we're. I don't know if I'll call it a breaking point, but I feel like we're kind of going into breaking season a little bit. And again, I don't think we're ever going to come to a point where the Republican Party is wholeheartedly rebelling against Donald Trump. I want to be very clear about that. But you are starting to see a little more kind of, especially here. And people need to not underestimate this, especially as we get past primaries. Right. Every time a new state has a primary, every senator particularly is going to start thinking, I don't have to face election again until Donald Trump is out of office. Right. And that does change the calculus. And so. So I think you're starting to see people kind of speak out now. Look, they were upset behind closed doors. How many senators came out and said they were the ones that were yelling behind closed doors, if any? I haven't heard of any. At least not many. Right. So that's a lack of courage still. But it's a good thing that they're upset about this, you know, And I think the other thing that's really, has been really dumb for Donald Trump is he has all of a sudden taken his, what I would call lame duck period, which will come probably January of next year till the end of his presidency. And he's almost moved it to today because he's gone against Cornyn, who's still in the. He's gone against Cassidy, who's still in the Senate. He's gone against, you know, Kentucky Massie. And so he's basically destroying his own majority while he has a few months left to govern. So I don't think it's a breaking point, Charlie, but I do think this is a. And I don't even know, maybe breaking season isn't the right word. It's just a damaging season. He's gonna be damaged.

[Charlie Sykes]

This is what's interesting about it, because on the one hand, depending on which adventure you choose, Donald Trump is running the table, winning all of these primaries, getting all the heads on the sticks that he wants. On the other hand, he really is undermining himself because, as you point out. So you have Republican senators who are gonna be sitting there for the next six months next to the political court corpses of Thom Tillis. Right, Thom Tillis, Cassidy, now Cornyn. Cornyn was very, very well liked. They are angry about it. They are ticked off. Now, whether or not that translates in anything, we don't know. But you have a critical mass of senators right now are probably thinking, you know, how much heavy lifting do I want to do? How much heavy lifting do I want to do for Donald Trump? So just give me your thoughts on the defeat of John Corn. Now, John Cornyn has been around Texas politics for years. He's been a jud. Supreme Court judge. He's been in the U.S. senate, raised $400 million, I think, for Republican senators. He not only was defeated on Tuesday night by one of the most corrupt politicians in America, he was annihilated. So, Adam, I'm just gonna tee this up for you. What is just your take. The defeat of Cornyn, the fact that Paxton, who. And I don't think I'm exaggerating when I say that he's probably one of the most egregiously corrupt, immoral, anti Democratic figures in American politics. He got more than 60% of the vote after being endorsed by Don. What do you think?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I mean, first off, let's. I want to say, you know, the White House has been desperate to spin this as Donald Trump is still the abominable, you know, political force. And I agree, when you compare to other political forces, he undoubted. And I don't think anybody's ever questioned whether he has control over the Republican Party, at least not since 2024. I don't think anybody's questioned that. He does. And whoever he endorses will win. I don't think that is the kind of power a president needs, but it's something. But the way the White House is trying to spend this is, he's like undefeatable. I mean, no, it's a primer. Let's, let's, you know, John Cornyn so I, this to me was so surprising because he's, you know, I'm, I'm very bitter at the Republican Party, but I'm not bitter at John Cornyn because I always saw him as just your typical politician kind of doing his thing. You know, he's, but that is the kind of thing that just doesn't survive in Donald Trump. If you are not on your knees in front of Donald Trump begging for his love, you will absolutely be crushed. And so he was crushed. Cornyn I mean, think about, I can't imagine having given so much to the state as Cornyn did, right? Having served in that capacity, having probably truly loved his job, probably feeling like a tough political force in Texas. And then overnight your fortunes are changed and you are crushed by your own party. I mean, I've been, and you probably have been dealing with some of the trauma of being kicked out of our tribe. Imagine being kicked out of your tribe

[Charlie Sykes]

in this way by this guy. By this guy. So let's go back to this, the lesson that he's sending because, you know, John Cornyn was maybe not a fire breathing MAGA guy, but he went along, right? I mean, votes against the impeachment. He does everything he can to suck up to Donald Trump. Like on May 11, just like three weeks ago, he proposed naming a highway Interstate 47 in honor of Donald Trump. I mean, that's how far he was willing to go. And despite all of that, Trump throws him under the bus for Ken Paxton, a man who is unfit for any political office in America. So other Republicans, I mean, to your point about the lesson that just going along with Donald Trump is not enough, if you're not on your knees, if you are not a true believer, if you have not made it clear that you will go along along with any of Donald Trump's corruption, if you will not defend any of Donald Trump's most extreme measures, if you will not help Donald Trump overTurn, say, the 2020 election, you know, you could be eliminated in a, in, you know, a snap of the fingers by Donald Trump. So it redefines what level of loyalty that is required of you, right. That you need to be licking the spittle all the time. And by the way, Chip Roy also gone along with Donald Trump, he was Annihilated. He was running for Attorney General. He was also defeated in Texas last night.

[Adam Kinzinger]

You have one choice, or I mean, you have two choices in the gop, but if you want to survive, you have one choice. You either spend 24 hours a day thinking about how you can please and fall in line with Donald Trump, or if you intend to have any version of a soul or independence, any version, you will not survive. And you just need to understand that. Now, that serves two purposes. Obviously, in the here and now for Donald Trump, it gives him control over his party. He probably wants that right and everything else. But let's think about in 2020, when we had Donald Trump calling Brad Raffensperger, who was also defeated, by the way, in Georgia. We had Donald Trump, if we, when we had calling him and saying like, hey, look, I want this election, I want you to find votes for me and Raffensperger, for instance, encourage to say no, you know, or Steven Richard had the courage to say no. Well, that's 2020. Now, the Republican Party has built a core group of people that now cannot say no to the president. And so think. Let's Fast forward to 2028 and what happens all of a sudden when Donald calling on his elected officials to do what he wants and that that ability to stand independent has been crushed three years ago. Can they do it? That's where I worry about more than just like, okay, there's no opposition in the GOP to Trump. I worry about what happens when it comes to a constitutional crisis, which could happen again.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, I worry about the same thing. You know, when you think about the difference between Ken Paxton and by the way, you know, we don't have enough time here to go through all of the scandals, the indictments, the impeachments, the adulteries, the bribery. We just don't know. I mean, and the thing is that with Ken Paxt, you know, the voters knew who he was. I mean, Cornyn spent more than $100 million telling him, you know, who he was. And the Democrats are gonna remind and they voted for him anyway, which tells you something about the moral state of the Republican Party. This is the real legacy of Donald Trump is the utter inshittification of the culture of the Republican Party. And so I do think that that's one of the big takeaways. So is Tex play? Can the Democrats actually win Texas? Because this has always been the white whale that we've been experiencing for so long.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It's like the girl you finally think is going to say yes to go into the prom, but she just doesn't. The football player asks her before you. Look, I, I do think it is, I do think there's a chance here and I just actually right before I hopped on with you, I saw a poll and granted you're going to see polls that are, that vary by, by 10 points now from here to election day because it's just how polling is. But it showed Talarico up 7 or 8% over Cornyn. I think there is not, I'm sorry, not Corn and Paxton. I think there is certainly a built in advantage for Talarico over Paxton because of the corruption. I do think there is. The thing you will see in Texas is there's, it's small but there. And I live in Texas now. For those that don't know, it is small but there is a core group of George H.W. george W. Republicans left. There may be 10% of the party or 15% of the party, but they are, they are honorable Republicans like a Charlie Sykes who will still vote for the moral candidate. And so that is, that could be the group that swings to Talarico. The big question for me is is Talarico able to stay kind of center, center, left, left or does? Because yes, some pretty lefty things on religion. And that will not work in Texas. Okay. It may work in New York or California if he can.

[Charlie Sykes]

And they'll spend a hundred million dollars emphasizing those things that you're talking about.

[Adam Kinzinger]

The thing, I mean you think about like the, the trans ad that worked so well against Kamala Talarika at one point had said that God is non binary. That's going to be blasted everywhere. But, but that said, that doesn't mean he's going to lose. I think he's got a great shot. But Texas is one of those places where you know how it is whenever there's an independent candidate or there's a candidate that there's crossover. Always the last week of the election, people come home because it's like, oh well if I vote for Talarico then, you know, so and so gets the majority in the Senate. So I don't think it's going to be massive crossover, but it may be enough just to pull it off. And I think Democrats would be actually quite wise to invest in that. But what you don't want to do is make this the white whale that sucks in $200 million and then Democrats lose.

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[Charlie Sykes]

well, and they've done that before. Let me go back to a point that you made that I didn't address, because I think it's really, really important, like why we ought to be concerned about 2028. You know, bottom line, I wrote this last week. You know, why did Donald Trump endorse Ken Paxton? What? Ken Paxton was the whole package for him. And bottom line, Ken Paxton will support any crime that Donald Trump wants. John Cornyn might not. Ken Paxton will support any future coup attempt that Donald Trump would make. John Cornyn might not. So, you know, when you think of, like, it feels so irrational politically for Trump to have endorsed, endorsed, endorsed Paxton. So do you think that there's a danger the Democrats are gonna get overconfident about this?

[Adam Kinzinger]

I think in Texas. Let me address Texas for a second. I think potentially, if the polls keep showing seven points, but I also think Democrats are smart enough to know that Texas is a white whale. Now, where I worry about overconfidence is the House races because, you know, I think you're going to see a wave election. And I worry that Democrats become overconfident and they, you know, look, the biggest thing, and maybe it's not even by 2026. It's the, it's the era between 26 and 28 where all.

[Charlie Sykes]

I agree with you completely.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, we're all of a sudden, Democrats have the power. They start being, you know, kind of beholden by their base. They do some far left stuff. That's where I think that dangerous thing is instead of talking to the middle of America. So I do worry a little about it. I think they're going to win the House. I think the Senate is certainly in play. I just worry that 26 to 28, like think about the American people. Right. Don't become beholden to the base because that's what the Republicans did. And the problem is, is people look at me and say, yeah, well, Republicans did that and then they had unchecked power for a while. I'm like, yeah, I agree, but they are very bad for this country. So you got to take that into account.

[Charlie Sykes]

Which, which does, which does matter. Look, I think you're, you're right. And I do think that, you know, what I've been saying is that the midterms are really, really important. But they're like halftime. They're like the halftime event. You have to run through the tape on all of that. And I think that as we look back on like, how did we get here? The fact that the Democrats were more successful than they thought they were going to BE in the 2022 midterms caused them to misread. The moment you think about, people thought that there was going to be a wipeout. They did lose the House of Representatives, but it was not as bad as they thought. And so, so Joe Biden looked around and said, yeah, maybe I should run for reelection again. Maybe we should continue doing exactly what we are doing. And as we know, that did not work out well. So going back to what's happening in Texas, because I do think that there's a real opportunity here to nationalize it. And Paul, I don't know if you saw this. Paul Waldman wrote that Ken Paxton's win gifts Democrats their 2026 midterm strategy, which is basically, it's the corruption, stupid. And you know, he says there may never be a better time to run on the question of corruption. Trump's actions in his second term are truly mind boggling. From the Gold plated Ballroom and the slush fund for insurrectionists to the way the administration is slashing regulations around crypto and prediction markets, while the Trump family benefits them to the $400 million plane Qatar gifted Trump to the government contracts given to companies with ties to Trump's sons to the Gulf Emirates pouring money into Trump family firms. And we mentioned this before, there's so much corruption, it's hard to keep track of it. But this does seem to be kind of like, you know, yes, Democrats, they giving this on a golden platter. And you can tie it, I think, into the economy that while you are having a hard time filling up your car and feeding your family, look what Trump and his cronies are doing for themselves. It feels as if that theme is coalescing, that it is the corruption stupid for this election cycle. Can they pull that off?

[Adam Kinzinger]

And I agree with you. And I just listened to your podcast with Wolfers where you're like, where the title was Do We Really Need Billionaires? Yeah, And I think it's an amazing question. I mean, one of the things I've been struggling with, Charlie, is like, my old conservative priors of, like, get everything you can to bumping up against the reality of should people really be worth a trillion dollars? And what does that actually do? You know, when we thought about wealth back in the day, you think about people worth 500 million, $100 million. That's generational wealth. You don't think about the fact that somebody's worth so much money that they can spend as much as they humanly can and still leave their. Their kids more money than. Than God. You know, it's like this. You create this Hunger Games class, right? And so I think that mixed in with the corruption, they're building this kind of Hunger Games class that's going to just watch us fight each other for their own entertainment. They're building that off the back of the corruption. I think talking about the fact that, like, even on insider trading, it's not like Donald Trump. Trump is just going to make $400 billion at $400 million out of thin air on an insider trade. There's the other side of that. There's a loser to every trade. And it may be your 401k, but Donald Trump doesn't care. He doesn't care about what he does on the back. And all of that builds into his detachment when it comes to things like affordability. His net worth has gone from $1 billion to $5 billion since his time in office. Do you think he cares what the. The price of gas is? No. Because he doesn't pay it peanuts if he didn't have more money to do it. I think all of that can be built into an arc to one continuous arc. Corruption, affordability, and all of that. That can be very effective. Just my opinion, I'm not the best messenger ever in the world, but I think you can build those all together. Because what I hear sometimes is people say, should we talk about corruption or affordability? And I think they're the same. I think it's all related.

[Charlie Sykes]

No, I think you're right. And to Justin Wolfer's point, I mean, you know, Justin Wolfer's maybe, you know, center left, I'm center right. But he raises this provocative point that, frankly, I never thought I would even go even to, you know, entertain this. But. But he makes the point, does anybody really need more than $100 million? You have $100 million. You can buy anything, you can do anything. You can have servants. Your servants can have servants. So what, what do you buy, you know, when you get to the billion dollar, 100 billion dollar, trillion dollar stage? And the only answer is power. And we are seeing, you know, it's not just an income disparity and a wealth disparity. It is a power disparity. And is there something that violates the American spirit on the 250th anniversary? That we have this vast oligarchy that not only has wealth beyond the dreams of avarice, but then uses that wealth to exert tremendous power, political power, cultural power, economic power. And at some point we're going to have to confront that.

[Adam Kinzinger]

I agree. And I mean, I guarantee you, I mean, I guess I can't say this hand on the Bible, but I'm pretty sure if we went back in time to the founding of this country and explained the Elon Musk situation where he spent a fraction of his wealth by an election, the Founding Fathers would probably say, yeah, that's not what we have in mind. Right. And I think the question on wealth specifically is if it's, if it doesn't affect anybody else, fine, make as much money as you want. But when that, when your ability to make money or the money you have begins to deprive me of my rights, my power, my ability to influence society, that is when you come into conflict with the founding principles of this country. I mean, that's. That deserves a book in and of itself. But it's like, it's an interesting thought exercise.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, I mean, and people live this every single day in very, very simple ways. So that let's say that, you know, that I need to go out and I need to buy myself a new lawnmower and I don't have the cash and I have to put it on my credit card. I might be paying 29%. You know, rich guy wants to go out and borrow money, what he's going to be paying what, 3, 4, 5, 6%? I pay 20, 30% of my income in federal taxes. What does Donald Trump and Elon Musk pay? I don't know. I know that Donald Trump pays virtually nothing. So it's like, wait on. Also the asymmetry of power. You deal with one of these major corporations, good luck getting an actual human being to ever interact with you. And you know the feeling. I guess it's that feeling the system is rigged against you. And the fundamental American value is you work hard, you play by the rules and you will get ahead. Do people have that kind of faith in the system? And when that breaks down, I think we're in a dangerous political moment.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah. And let's take even things like higher education. I mean, what is it? I was just reading that basically the number of A's given to students in kind of ivy leaf type schools has increased massively. So you have this, this great inflation. And a lot of that is because Ivy League colleges have become basically, we want to charge more. We're not going to allow more people in, we're going to charge more. If you can get through the aristocracy of admissions, there's a 94% chance you're going to be rejected. But if your parents are somebody and they give enough money, we'll have you in and then to make you feel good, we'll give you an A and then you can go out and compete in the world. I mean, initially colleges were built. I mean, the huge college growth happened after the GIs came back back from World War II and they had the GI Bill. I went to Illinois State University. It used to be that, yeah, going to Harvard versus Illinois State is going to give you a little bit of an advantage. But what has become now is that if your parents aren't somebody, you go to Illinois State, if your parents can build a million dollar library. And the whole point of all I'm saying that is there is this feeling that there is this permanent untouchable class. And I think Democrats, quite honest, honestly, are probably built better to run on it. Whoever though, should run on that idea of like, you know, bring the. Let's get back to equal opportunity here. Not equal outcomes, equal opportunity.

[Charlie Sykes]

Right. And not not outcomes. But, you know, on this issue of affordability and corruption being the same thing, I've heard a couple of figures. And am I right? John Ossoff has used the phrase the Epstein class. So you can tie together a lot of these things. And it goes back to that very powerful ad that Donald Trump ran against Kamala Harris. You know, that, you know, she is for they and them. I am for you right now. Who is Donald Trump for? Even Megyn Kelly is shocked by it. Okay, so Adam, let's talk about where we're at on Iran right now as you and I are taping this, where, you know, the fog of war over the weekend. Donald Trump declares that we are almost, you know, peace is at hand. Got massive blowback from his own base. Even Lindsey Graham was upset about it. Ted Cruz was upset about it. Benjamin Netanyahu gets on the phone, then he starts backing off. We're bombing again. So just give me your thoughts where we're at. And I think what was clear, at least on Saturday or Sunday, was that Donald Trump was damn close to surrendering. I mean, it was an abject, complete strategic failure. And when he was called out on it, I think he kind of freaked out. So where are we at now? What are your thoughts?

[Adam Kinzinger]

This is what happens when you are a deep narcissist. Is, is the only thing you think about when you're doing a deal, for instance, is how it affects you. What I think about, Charlie, is how it will affect me for the next, hopefully I live for another 40 years and how it affects my kid, who hopefully lives another 80. Right. So the impact of a bad deal is going to have implications far beyond us. Donald Trump knows that he's not going to be here in probably a decade. Right. And so his whole thing is, is I'm going to cut a deal that is going to be good for me now and the long term implications is less important. And so I think, look, we are in the worst possible case. Just like generally, where do we sit right now? The worst possible outcome. So had we surrendered, terrible, or we engage again, we go full military. I think either of those is better than this kind of half assuming way we find ourselves. And so let me just say, you never should engage in war unless you're willing to do whatever is necessary to win. And instead we engage in a war, except we were unwilling to do ground troops even if they were necessary. And so look, I hate when politicians say no boots on the ground, by the way, because if you're willing to go to war, you should be willing to do whatever to win that war. And so Donald Trump has a choice. Either retreat, I think, think or re engage. And he doesn't want to choose either of those. I think he is scared to death of re engaging militarily. He's hoping that a miracle can somehow come out of this. And we're just finding ourselves in this, like, kind of morass right now where the economy is getting crushed, there's no progress, and, you know, we just every two, every 48 hours have a supposed deal that's coming to try to control the stock market price. I think we're in real trouble right now.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, and he is obsessed with the stock market price. And the bet the stock market is basically making is that with all of the bluster and everything, in the end he's going to back off. He's not going to do the crazy thing. Donald Trump had so much. You go back to this, the narcissism that you mentioned, that he believed that whatever he touches, he can turn to gold. Right? That he can, whatever the outcome, he can just simply declare that it is a victory and that people will believe it. The problem is, as Iran has a vote, it turned out to be much more complicated. There are real consequences to having burned the bridges to all of our allies. And the extent of the surrender that he was contemplating over the weekend, I mean, was pretty breathtaking. He's clearly bored with Iran. He clearly wants to move on to Cuba. I mean, we're gonna do Cuba next, right? I mean, once he loses interest in all of that, right, we just move on to Cuba. But the rest of the world, and people need to understand the rest of the world is coming to a conclusion that America has chosen decline, that America is no longer that. Donald Trump said, I will make America the most respected, most feared nation on Earth. The rest of the world is looking at it like, holy shit, you're a paper tiger with a weak leader.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Imagine we used to be able to. I mean, had we gone to Iran and had Trump actually tried to engage the Europeans with us, at least gotten them neutral, you know, gone to Iran, we maybe we bomb, maybe we end up exactly where we are now. But now we have our allies on our side that are threatening to join us in opening the strait that gives us leverage against Iran in negotiations. Let's assume that when Iran was putting out these Lego memes, you know, these videos, that the White House, instead of attacking Democrats, would have turned around and put out funny stuff against Iran. That's the information war, diplomatic information, of course, We've done the military. And then imagine had we not lifted sanctions against Iran at the beginning of the war and then reimposed an embargo, of which we're still letting oil going to China passed. It is an ineffective diplomatic information and economic war. Military is doing what it does. But all those other pieces are out. That's what happens when you shed your alliances. That's what happened when happens when you choose. When you walk around like, I'm the big guy. Look, you can be the big guy in the bar, but if you have 10 smaller friends around you, nobody's gonna fight you. If you're the big guy in the bar with no friends, somebody's gonna take a swing because they want to see if they can take the big guy down. That's a reality of where we are today. And unfortunately, you know, I think most Republicans understand this, but they're too cowardice to say anything. And Donald Trump himself doesn't care because he's stuck in 1987.

[Charlie Sykes]

He is stuck in 1987. It's going to be interesting to see, you know, how much cash he's willing to put on pallets to give back to the Iranians. There's a headline in the Telegraph that it's going to cost, like, $24 billion. We all remember, we're old enough to remember when, you know, what Donald Trump and the Republicans said about, about Barack Obama's deal. Basically, Donald Trump will be lucky if he gets out of this war with something like, you know, close to what Obama had negotiated without a war, which is, like, mind blowing when you think about it. Right? I mean, it's just like.

[Adam Kinzinger]

And on top of that, before we went to Iran, we had just executed this brilliant mission to capture Maduro. The American military looked like there was some technology that we were hiding, that we were amazing, Amazing that we were awesome. And then we go to Iran and we end up finding out that our air defense doesn't work as well. We have ignored the lessons out of Ukraine for three years, which is we need cheaper air defense interceptors. And. And instead we went from actually after Venezuela looking like this amazing military, to now looking like maybe we aren't as tough as we think we are. The damn. That is incredible.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, arrogance and hubris can be very, very dangerous to a world power. Okay, so at the risk of revealing what a complete nerd that I am, I did do something over the weekend. I don't think I did it on Monday. I did pretty much take Monday off. But I asked, do you do a Lot of AI stuff at all. I'm just a little bit. Okay. So I asked Claude a question. I asked Claude, I said, can you find anyone who predicted that drones would change the nature of warfare? Can you find anyone who predicted before the beginning of the Russia Ukraine war? And of course, they scour it, and there are a few people here or there, but basically the answer is nobody saw it coming. So here's one of those moments of humility about, you know, how the world might be changing, how power might be changing. You know, we talk about AI. The reality is that, like, in the last five years, no one predicted how much the world had changed. Just on the drone thing. So we're building up this big, muscular military. The Ukrainians say, actually, let's change all the rules. The Iranians, the Ukrainians, the Iranians now are changing the rules by saying, okay, we don't have a nuclear bomb, but what if we close the Strait of Hormuz? So this is another one of those moments where we don't know what's coming. And to have Donald Trump stuck in 1987 is in many ways the worst case scenario here.

[Adam Kinzinger]

Well, I was gonna say this is where on the Pentagon side, if, if any administration can do this, it will. They will be worth their wait. You know, they can be celebrated as an administration. Is changing the way the Pentagon does procurement so that we're not stuck in these legacy systems. We can adjust quickly. We're not doing that, Charlie. We have like 50,000 drones right now in the US military. To give you an example, Ukraine. Ukraine uses 6 million a year. That's how behind we are.

[Charlie Sykes]

Okay, so I was going to say 50,000 sounds like a lot. You're saying Ukrainians have 6 million, but we have some really last us two weeks. But we have these big aircraft carriers. I mean, it is one of those, like, you know, the cliche was the generals always fight the last war and like, shit, yes, we're really. We were really behind all of that. So any thoughts about Tulsi Gabbard being forced out over the weekend? Now, of course, the COVID story. I'm sorry, I don't mean to be insensitive. I mean, her husband has a cancer diagnosis and, you know, that certainly may be a factor. But this comes as there were all kinds of reports that she was going to be pushed out or fired. By the way, another female. Isn't it interesting? It almost feels like there's a pattern, that all the female cabinet members are being pushed out, but Tulsi Gabbard was never Fit for that job in the first place was a terrible fit for the job was clearly really, you know, not, not in sync with the administration.

[Adam Kinzinger]

So, you know, she's a special kind of bad person. I know her and, and I'll tell you, she, she remember, she's the one that went and would visit with Assad in Syria after he's murdering thousands and thousands of people. She hate, she like hates Muslims for some reason. And that's why part of the Assad thing. She was very pro Russian. She was pro Russian in the position of national, you know, director of National Intelligence. This is a good bye bye situation between her and Joe Kent. I know people, some people are happy with Joe Kent because he's against Iran. Joe Kent, fine, you can find common cause in that. But not a great man either. Although, you know, has an honorable history in service. Tulsi Gabbard, very bad. And the thing is, is to put out there your husband's cancer diagnosis. This, let's all say we wish him the best. But that doesn't exempt you from then criticism of saying you were not a good fit for the administration. And that's what they've tried to do is like, oh, you can't criticize Tulsi leaving because she's leaving because of her husband. Well, I think she'd be gone regardless. But you don't get to, once you take public service, you don't get to be exempt from criticism in this case.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, I'm going to make any predictions, but I think it is unlikely to that she's ever going to be in public office again in this country. I think there's at least a 10% chance that 10 years from now she's gonna be living in some, you know, Dhaka dacha. How do you pronounce Dhaka outside of, outside of Moscow, by the way? In the mail just yesterday, this is what I got. Thank you very much. I am holding up your book, that's what Heroes do by Adam Kinzinger. Children's book, highly recommended. And I have to say I was, I was a little bit surprised, Adam, because you actually make a really, it's a great children's book and it's a great educational book. But I guess I was surprised because there's kind of a profound idea of redefining what a hero is. In fact, that's the theme that, you know, it's. And I don't want to, I don't want to be a spoiler. Can you do a spoiler alert on all this? But basically, you know, you're a military veteran, and you're talking with your son Christian, who says, you know, you're a hero because, you know, you were a fighter pilot and all of that. And you say, yeah, but there are a lot of other heroes in the world. And I do think that we had gotten to that point where we were. We had defined heroism too narrowly. And in the end, you define it as being there for other people. Right. I mean, that's the essence of. And all of these professions, which feels right now, at this moment in history, to be very countercultural. It feels like a very countercultural book, which I think you intended, Right?

[Adam Kinzinger]

Yeah, I did. And thanks for saying that. You know, here's the thing is, like, you know, let's say somebody is willing to step in front of a train to save a child. Is that person a hero? Yes. Right.

[Charlie Sykes]

Easy.

[Adam Kinzinger]

What if that same. It's that mindset of, like, I'm going to do something to benefit this person is also the same mindset of, like, I'm going to drop what I'm doing and help this old lady across the street, or I'm going to go spend my afternoons as a flight instructor to teach young black children how to fly airplanes. And, you know, 60 of them so far from a group called Tuskegee Next, have gone on to be airline pilots at United Airlines. You know, coming out of an environment where they thought they had no hope, all of that is heroic because we live in a time where people are just in a desert of inspiration. And so I think it's important I also throw in there the name of Andreas o'. Keefe.

[Charlie Sykes]

I was just about to ask you that. Tell me about that.

[Adam Kinzinger]

And so clearly, he is a hero, right? He's somebody that. He died in 2018 and in Iraq, but he was doing what he loved. And, you know, he was doing a mission for his country and his helicopter crashed. Yes, that's a hero, but that's not the only hero. And to be a hero, you don't have to join the military. You don't have to go die for your country. But at the same time, those are heroic moves. So I think it's important for us just to talk about the mindset for young people. Because right now, Charlie, we live in a time where there is nothing out there motivating or telling kids, at least, that life is about more than just grab everything you can with your limited time.

[Charlie Sykes]

I do worry about that. I worried about that for the last 10 years, you know, the role models, because you can come up with all of the adages and all of the rules and all of the cliches. But, you know, young people are watching. They see, you know, what the grownups are doing, and they see what works, what is honored, how to become famous, all of those things. And also, and I think your book obviously captures this, people need stories. This is what really inspires people, you know, not essays and tomes about, you know, what is virtue and what is character. Examples of virtue and character and of, you know, of heroism in that particular way. And, you know, you go on TikTok, you go on social media, are you getting those role models? Are you seeing those kinds of stories? Maybe, yes. You know, it depends where you are, but it's important. And this is what. This is one of the obligations of our generation, right, to be countercultural in. In an age of corruption and celebrity and. Right. Is to say no,

[Adam Kinzinger]

you think, in the caveman days and then on. Every generation has their stories, they pass down. Right before the. Before we had the printing press, it was word of mouth, and then it was books, and then it's. Now it's the Internet. And the best thing our generations can do is to pass on the values that we inherited that I think feel at threat right now. You know, because if a kid spends his day on Instagram or Tick Tock or whatever, what's he going to see? He's going to see the. The. The view of life that people want to show, not the reality. Right. Not the tough things. And so the best thing our generations can do is not. Is to hand down those stories in the form of values. And that's what I try to do here. And. And I think it's something that we need to keep our mind on consciously trying to do for the next, you know, however many years. We each have a, you know, a gift of life on earth.

[Charlie Sykes]

Well, thank you for the book. I appreciate it. And thank you for all your time today, Adam. I appreciate it very much.

[Adam Kinzinger]

It's good to be with you. Thanks, man.

[Charlie Sykes]

And thank you for listening to this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We do this all the time. We will continue to do this through the long, hot summer because I feel that this year here especially, we're going to need to remind ourselves every single day that we are not the crazy ones. Thank you.

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[Charlie Sykes]

Acast powers the world's best podcasts. Here's a show that we recommend. I'm Alexander Fairweather, raised by one of the world's great creative geniuses, John Chamberlain, on his famous foam couches. Now I'm on the couch again with

[Adam Kinzinger]

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[Charlie Sykes]

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[Adam Kinzinger]

On the couch. Launches May 19 with John Gray of Ghetto Gastro, whose food will make you rethink who belongs at the table. Season 1 Daniel Arsham, Alexander Wang, Annabel Selldorf and more. Subscribe wherever you stream and follow along

[Charlie Sykes]

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[Adam Kinzinger]

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