Molly Jong Fast (3:16)

I was honored to be asked.

Charlie Sykes (3:19)

Well, I hope you brought some opinions today. Okay, here's my contrarian question. There are people who actually believe that Donald Trump launched the war against Iran as a way to distract from the Trump Epstein files, but it's going so bad. Is it possible that this war has turned out to be such a fubar that Donald Trump will be forced to actually release the Epstein files to distract from the fuck up of the war? What do you think?

Molly Jong Fast (3:46)

I mean, that is a take I have not heard, but it certainly sounds possible. Look, the war, you were going through it. As I was listening to you in the introduction, you were talking about the Straits of Hormuth. I'm sorry, the Straits of Harmuth.

Charlie Sykes (4:07)

Hormuz, yes, Hormuz. Sorry, yeah.

Molly Jong Fast (4:12)

That is like a central focus of like the worst case scenario. And whenever anyone talks to you about the Middle east and about this conflict, the nightmare scenario is that the straits become blocked and 20% of all oil and natural gas cannot flow through them. Right. It's like a huge supply chain mishap. And so that just happened, right? That's what happened yesterday. Now ships are being attacked. We have. They're trying to. Trying to lay mines. I mean, it is just like. It's just all this sort of worst case scenario stuff which all could have been gamed out had he talked to anyone, one who wasn't his billionaire friend Steve Woodkoff, or his son in law who is very amashed with Saudi Arabia and Israel.

Charlie Sykes (5:09)

Yeah, this is what you get when your brain trusts Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Pete Hegseth. Right. As opposed to the people who might actually game that out and talk about worst case scenarios. Right now, the United States has to protect every single ship that goes through the straits. If in fact it chooses to do that, the Iranians only need to get one. And if they blow, blow up a ship, you not only obviously have created the fear factor for going through the straits, but there might be a massive oil slick that makes it impossible to pass. Meanwhile, I think it's increasingly obvious that any notion of regime change is no longer realistic, if it ever was realistic in the first place. I mean, Donald Trump basically seems to want to do in, in Iran what he did in Venezuela, which is you basically install somebody else from the regime who's gonna do your bidding, and that's just simply not gonna happen, is it?

Molly Jong Fast (6:05)

Well, what I think about Iran, which is so interesting, is like he's found the only person worse than the guy who was there, his son. He's super angry, very religious, incredibly vengeful, because you just killed his dad son. And he's, I mean, it's just, you know, like the overconfidence. He thought he could find a Dulce Rodriguez. He thought he could find someone who could go in there and just be like a fake regime change, right? Like everything stays the same, but we get your oil. And instead what's happened here is you've empowered someone who is much younger, right, who's about 20, 25 years younger and who is, who plans to run the country, if anything, in a more oppressive way than his dad and who. I mean, it just, it's like at every point it's a worst case scenario.

Charlie Sykes (7:04)

Right. Well, and part of the problem, of course, is that, you know, Donald Trump, I think, instinctually would want to taco out on all of this. I mean, that's kind of the cliche now that he would simply declare victory, declare victory and pull out. This is the problem with quagmires. They tend to have their own logic of action and retaliation. And it's not clear to me. I mean, I'm guessing that that that's certainly more likely than not, that Donald Trump will just simply declare victory and pull out. On the other hand, you can't just set the house on fire and poke the hornet's nest, whatever analogy you want to use, and just walk away. Because everybody else gets a vote too, don't they?

Molly Jong Fast (7:41)

Yeah. And I mean, I would caution there are some people on the left who are saying that Trump is doing this to provoke a terrorist attack so he can cancel the election. That's not true. Okay. And people need to not think like that. And Also, Donald Trump can't cancel the elections. So, like, I think it's really important not to buy into, like, the kind of clickbaity stuff that feels like it might be right. He's never playing three dimensional chess. You know, he's just trying to eat the checkers. Like, don't give him that kind of conspiratorial power.

Charlie Sykes (8:22)

It doesn't mean he might not fall into that. By the way, speaking of which, speaking of eating the checkers. So when I was putting my newsletter together yesterday, I went back into my own files and this is from just two months ago. This is from the middle of January. I wrote a piece called Full Mad King. Yes, it's real. Donald Trump really did write that letter to the Norwegian Prime Minister whinging, not whining, whingeing about not getting the Nobel Prize. Remember that? And declaring that since he didn't get the Nobel Peace Prize, quote, I no longer feel any obligation to think purely of peace. And I said, no, no, you're not the crazy ones if you think we have fallen down a black hole of mad King dementia. So since this was in January when he was rattling the sabers about Greenland, since then he has attacked Venezuela, he has gone to war with Iran. Clearly he's intending to go to war or topple the regime in Cuba. So anyone who thinks that there is this long strategic chess match going on here. No. And by the way, speaking of miscalculations, this story, I mean, I want to get. There's so many of them, but the one that really is just seems like it's got hair on fire are the reports that the Ukrainians had offered some time ago to help the US in dealing with drone attacks. We said, yeah, no, we blew them off. And now here we are begging them for support at the very time when we're getting these very credible reports of Vladimir Putin is helping the Iranians actually target American targets. I mean, why do you feel like the world's so turned upside down once again?

Molly Jong Fast (9:51)

Yeah, yeah, No, I mean, this story is so nuts. And by the way, Cuba, the Cuba thing. And there was really good reporting yesterday in the Wall Street Journal about how Donald Trump is pitting Marco against JD and how they're both sort of fighting, but also trying not. But nobody wants to claim responsibility for the midterms because they know where they're head. Yeah, I mean, the drone stuff is really interesting because Ukraine has done an amazing job. Right. The war, I mean, there was actually a really smart piece and it's not a one to One by any stretch of the imagination. But talking about how Vladimir Putin's feelings towards the war in Ukraine and his attitude is very similar to Donald Trump's attitude towards the war. You've read this piece, right? You know what I'm talking about, right? And that they both thought it would take a week, and they both didn't understand just what Ukrainians and Iranians felt they had to lose. And I think that that is a real. I think that's a. It's a real parallel in that way. You know, strong men who had thought they were that flew a little too close to the sun.

Charlie Sykes (11:10)

Well, that's why I keep using the word arrogance and hubris. Flying too close to the sun. And Donald Trump had gotten cocky because he had done a series of military operations and bombings that were one and done no casualties whatsoever. Convinced himself that he didn't need to listen to the generals, that he had all the answers. And by the way, speaking of having all the answers, you and I talked about this on your podcast. Interesting moment when that New York Times reporter asked Donald Trump very directly, how come you're the only person saying that the Iranians somehow got their hands on Tomahawk missiles and bombed their own school? Not even Pete Hegseth is saying that sort of thing. And then Trump basically said, yeah, because I really don't know what I'm talking about, or something like that. Yes, it is interesting because the evidence now is overwhelming. Preliminary inquiry came back yesterday showing that, yes, it was the US that killed all those kids. Now, you know, is Donald Trump ever gonna take responsibility for that, or is he just gonna now have the new spin saying, hey, shit happens in war. Get over it. What do you think?

Molly Jong Fast (12:16)

So that was really great reporting from Sean McCreesh. And he's on the plane. He asked Trump. It was like a series of questions on the plane. He asked Trump about this girls school. Trump said, we definitely didn't do it. Hegseth. Then we saw it from his paws, right? Because everyone in this administration is so North Korean sycophant that Hegseth was like, we probably didn't do it. So he already knew that we were the country that had done it, because he knew that they were Tomahawks and that the Iranians don't have tomahawks. We have Tomahawks. They don't. So that's what. He already knew it. And you could see. And that's the thing that's so interesting about this administration is in some ways, they're very good liars. And in other ways, like just like Kristi Noem when they're asking her if she had sexual relations with Corey Levandowski, and she's offended but can't say no. There are certain ways you can see where they won't perjure themselves. And so I thought that was really interesting. Fast forward Sean McCreesh the next day says, why do you think you're the only person saying what we all know is not true? And you get this very Trumpy answer of like, Schrodinger's War, you know, it happened. It didn't happen. I don't know. I'm just a game show host here. What am I even doing here?

Charlie Sykes (13:38)

Yeah, I'm just a game show. By the way, speaking of Pete Hegseth, these may not be the most important stories of the week, but the report that we got about how much money he is blowing through buying himself fruit basket stands and crab and lobster and all of this other stuff. I mean, okay, so slightly off brand. I mean, the guy's out there going, we need to be lethal. We need to do all this. Where's my fruit baskets stand? What is with this guy? And did you see the story in the Washington Post where it turns out that he was so unhappy, he had some photographers post, you know, taking unflattering pictures of him that they were banned from the Pentagon briefings. This guy is so juvenile. He is so unserious, but also he is so ridiculously vain. And here we are at a time of war, and we keep coming back. And I am sorry to repeat it, but the worst people at the worst possible times, right?

Molly Jong Fast (14:34)

Yeah. And I mean, I think it's a really good point about Hegseth, because, remember, Trump picked him because he looked good. He looked the job. Right? He was a weekend television host. I mean, he could have picked me, Right? I mean, this is. I mean, Hegseth at least was in the Guard, right? Yeah, exactly. Hegseth at least was in the Guard. I was not in the Guard. So that makes sense. And I think it was rotc. But, you know, he did not have, like, a huge amount of military service service. He did go to an Ivy League institution, which now he doesn't want troops going to, which I think is very strange. And then the overspending. And look, that is this tenant, right? We saw Kristi Noem. We had John Kennedy from Louisiana asking Kristi Noem how she spent $220 million on a series of ads, more than Barbie Oppenheimer. I mean, like, you can go through the list of movies that cost less than Kristi Noem's ad campaign. And so. And then this. That's where we get to, like, the fruit stands is the question is, yes, our troops deserve to eat fabulous food, and they should, especially because they're being put in harm's way. But that's not what this is.

Charlie Sykes (15:50)

Yeah, I'm not sure the troops got the piano, the $90,000 piano, $5 million

Molly Jong Fast (15:56)

worth of Apple products.

Charlie Sykes (15:58)

Yeah. You know what? One of the lessons that I learned many, many years ago was that people, you can say we've just wasted $10 billion on something, and people will kind of glaze over, you know, $100 billion. But if you tell somebody about somebody just spent, you know, $1.2 million on crab legs or something, something that's tangible or a number that they can understand, you know, this woman just spent $93,000 in taxpayer money on Botox treatments, which is not true. I think I just made that up. That becomes graphic. And I guess in terms of what the MAGA agenda was about, that whole DOGE spending, the fact that we're, what, blowing through something like $3 billion a day in the Iran war, that we are blowing through this kind of money, and that Donald Trump is talking about these massive increases in spending at a time I just

Molly Jong Fast (16:54)

put 9% of the federal government.

Charlie Sykes (16:57)

Federal government. But I mean, I understand that the MAGA world, that they have a capacity for cognitive dissonance, but, you know, and we keep coming back to this. What are they going to be able to tolerate? What are they going to be able to go through? Hey, by the way, speaking of movies, by the way, I'm going to ask you for a movie recommendation.

Molly Jong Fast (17:12)

Yes.

Charlie Sykes (17:12)

Did you hear the big news of the week? The Melania Docubribe is now streaming.

Molly Jong Fast (17:20)

I haven't seen it yet. Did you see it?

Charlie Sykes (17:23)

No, because I have. Or something like a life. But I watched some excerpts. I watched some excerpts, which is basically like what everybody does right now. Too long. Didn't read the whole thing. I have to say that the thing is beyond parody. I mean, when people say it's really, really, really bad. There's a scene where Donald, she's on the phone in her penthouse apartment. She's in New York, and Donald Trump is on the phone, and apparently they just certified his reelection as President of the United States. And he's like, did you.

Adam Grant (17:52)

Did.

Charlie Sykes (17:52)

Did you watch it on television? No, no, no. She says, I had some meetings. You know, I'll catch it later on the. You really should watch it. And it's actually kind of pathetic because he's clearly trying to get her interested and she clearly does not give a damn about the whole thing. And it's just so. It's just like this is more revealing than you think it is.

Molly Jong Fast (18:12)

So anyway, and you know what's interesting about Melania is at the same time as the Melania docubribe, which is the only way to call it, made by Jeff Bezos in the hopes that Donald Trump will let him have the space contracts he wants at that same time, there was E. Jean Carroll. There was this documentary about E. Jean Carroll, which is totally fascinating and how she took on Donald Trump.

Paylocity Announcer (18:41)

Right.

Molly Jong Fast (18:42)

No one will distribute that.

Charlie Sykes (18:44)

Yep. Isn't that interesting?

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Charlie Sykes (19:51)

Hey, can I make a movie recommendation? Because I used to do this all the time and I haven't done it lately, but I watched a movie again last night that I thought was probably not on most people's radar screens, but I want to strongly recommend just popped up on Netflix. It's called the Swedish Connection. It's a Swedish movie about World War II and about how the nobodies, the bureaucratic nobody stepped up to do some incredibly heroic things. And it's one of those things that if you're sitting around going, what do I do in this moment of history? Can I make a difference in this moment of history? How do I want to be remembered? I am not powerful. I am not famous. Is there something that I could do? Because it has a lot to do with migration. It has a lot to do with visas. It has a lot to do. It's basically a Swedish Schindler's List on a much, much bigger scale. And so it's a true story that has kind of been dropped, you know, from history. But the Norwegians, I mean, sorry, the Scandinavians in general have just done a marvelous job creating World War II movies. So if people see it and don't mind watching subtitles, I strongly recommend. And it's not dark. It's actually, in some ways, it's got some funny moments, but it is a very, very serious movie. And I have to say, I made my wife watch it. I said, because you know what, we need a little bit of encouragement, literally encouragement and a little bit of inspiration, and this would be it. Do you have anything you can recommend for us?

Molly Jong Fast (21:14)

Yeah, I just saw Blue Moon and I thought it was really good. It's the story of Rogers and Hart, the librecist before Rogers and Hammerstein. And it's just an incredible movie and it's just so good. It's definitely worth watching. It's brilliantly done.

Charlie Sykes (21:37)

Okay, well, I am in the mood for that because this is one of the ways I think that we all can cope when we step out of the doom scrolling. You're on all the time. I mean, this is an important piece of advice. You're on all the time. You're on msnbc, you're writing for the New York Times, you're doing all these podcasts. So my guess is that there. There's a lot of doom scrolling going on. Molly, right?

Molly Jong Fast (22:01)

Yeah.

Charlie Sykes (22:02)

I mean, how do you break away from it? How do you. Because the people is. How do I survive this? What's your formula?

Molly Jong Fast (22:10)

I mean, I watch tv, I spend a lot of time with my kids. I have dogs. I love my dogs. Yeah, I love dogs. You know, I just. And also, look, I have the micro and the macro, right? The macro is different than the micro. So I can separate my personal life from the world and I have to do that quite a lot because the world seems really dark right now. But I also think, like, it's important to remember Donald Trump is pushing so hard on the SAVE act because he knows he is on the back foot, right? Like, he wouldn't be doing this if things were going well. And as much as, like, it is really dark because it's horrible to watch people die and to watch us burn all this money that could be spent on, like, you know, health care and education and housing and vaccines, we still are. The American people don't like this. And you can't go from what we're seeing. And maybe it will work for Trump, but I don't think it will. It's very hard to go from normal American life to North Korea. And so as much as Donald Trump hopes that this will work, I think he knows it's not working.

Charlie Sykes (23:29)

I think that's a good point. And I think this has been what's been encouraging. I think there was the shock after the 2024 election when we had to look around and go, okay, is this us now? Are the American people okay with this? I mean, did they see this and decide that they want to do this again? But what we are seeing is, I think that there are these reservoirs of decency. I think we also ought to remind ourselves that not everybody is as locked into the news cycle. I mean, most people actually do have lives. And so they may vote in a certain way, but doesn't mean that they. You've signed up for all of it, all the cruelty, all the brutality. And as you're pointing out, these numbers are, they are horrific for Trump. And the SAVE act being a perfect example of he wants to rig the system because he knows he can't. He's not gonna win if he doesn't rig that system.

Molly Jong Fast (24:18)

And I think the other thing I would say is, like last night there was this special election for Marjorie Taylor Greene's seat. It's a Ruby, Ruby red district. Here's what happens. The the Trump endorsed candidate did not win and now he has to go to a runoff against the Democrat. This is not a district where. Right. And this is not a district where a Democrat should be anywhere near getting the most votes. And so it really shows that, A, Trump doesn't have the power he even had a year and a half ago. And B, the American people actually are paying attention and they're not happy.

Charlie Sykes (24:58)

Well, I mean, once again, we have another data point about whether or not Democrats are going to turn out and vote in big numbers. This was a jungle primary. I think there were 20 candidates. And so the top two advanced to the runoff. And the Democratic candidate, who's not going to win the general election, I don't think, but got more than 40%, around 40% of the vote, was the number one vote getter. That was very interesting in that district. So let's go back to the SAVE act because this is a very interesting story. Donald Trump over the weekend went all in on pushing this SAVE act, which would require voter ID but would also end mail in registration, would make life absolutely miserable for married women, or if you were changing, you know, anything, you have to go in and prove your citizenship. I mean, it's a real nightmare. Donald Trump declared that he would not sign any other piece of legislation until the SAVE act was passed and put on his death. Down in Texas, Ken Paxton says he won't drop out of the Senate race unless Republicans in the Senate nuke the filibuster and pass the SAVE Act. So this is like right at the top of their agenda. And a couple of days ago, John Thune, Republican leader, says, hey, guys, we don't have the votes for this. This is not gonna happen. We are not going to nuke the filibuster, Mr. President. So this is one of those rare tiny moments where the Senate Republicans are telling Trump absolutely not even at the moment when he is exerting maximum political pressure.

Molly Jong Fast (26:29)

Yeah. And I mean, look, Trump was at this RNC retreat and he was having to talk to them about the midterms. And what you could see was he was processing the information in real time. He was seeing that he has nothing good to say to them about the midterms because he just went to war and he now gasoline is 100 doll barrel, except when he says the war is gonna be over and then it's $80 a barrel. He's just done all the stuff he wasn't supposed to do. So he gets up there and he's like, how can I save this? And he's like, the SAVE Act. Look, I think that Trump is in a lot of trouble. I also would add that in Texas, this is a real problem for him because you got Cornyn, who is the Republican that the establishment wants and that the big money says he is a person who could get the kind of indie voters that you need of presidential. But the problem is Ken Paxton, Trump before Trump. And if Trump doesn't endorse Paxton, which he's saying he won't again, let's see. I'm not convinced that A, Paxton drops out and B, that Paxton has done everything Donald Trump has ever asked of him times a million. Right, Right.

Charlie Sykes (27:44)

But doesn't count. But it doesn't count to Donald Trump. You know, he'll throw anybody under the bus when they cease to be useful. No. What matter what you've done or said for him in the past. Right, for sure.

Molly Jong Fast (27:54)

But Paxton has a MAGA kind of base in Texas that might be more with him than with Trump.

Charlie Sykes (28:04)

This is a really interesting story because I think there's a broad consensus that Ken Paxton would be a nightmare for Republicans, that in terms of electability, that James Talarico would have a real shot of taking that seat that in many ways, the Paxton would be like the Roy Moore story from Alex, because he's been indicted so many times. You know, his wife, you know, has accused him of adultery. And I mean, it is Angela. Oh, it is. Members of his staff have resigned, whistleblowing, saying, this guy is too corrupt.

Molly Jong Fast (28:33)

He fought impeachment.

Charlie Sykes (28:35)

He was impeached by the Republican House of Representatives in Texas. I mean, this is a nightmare. And so, you know, the smart money is that Donald Trump was gonna pressure him to drop out of the race and then, you know, clear the way for Cornyn, who's still gonna have some problems. Your question is, can you force Paxton out and still hold the MAGA base together or will they feel betrayed? Does Trump have that kind of clout? The fact is that Paxton is still in that race. And what's going to happen is the SAVE act will die in the Senate. Paxton may use that as an excuse to stay in the race. It gets messier and messier and messier.

Molly Jong Fast (29:13)

And one last thing about SAVE act, just to put a, put a bow on this the way he wants it now, the SAVE act would actually have to go through the House again. And I have a real question because there's not the mail in voting stuff about the SAVE act in the most recent House SAVE act that passed. And I have a real question for you just to take this in a slightly different direction. Republicans have a one seat majority. Thomas Massie has shown that he is done with Trump. Why hasn't Hakeem gotten Jeffries to just caucus? Why hasn't Hakeem gotten Massie to just caucus with Dems?

Charlie Sykes (29:56)

Oh, I don't think that's going to happen. Because I mean, Massey is quite right wing, I mean, or even Bacon. Well, Bacon, now that's where I was going. Don Bacon. That certainly would be an option. And particularly if you are Don Bacon and you do think this is an existential threat, why wouldn't you do that? Right. Of course that ends his career in Republican politics forever. But you know, reality check, he doesn't have one anyway. Well, he might wanna run for some, might wanna run for something else. But this is fragile and there could come a moment where something could happen or somebody else just decides, you know what, I am done. I'm sick of this, I'm just gonna resign. You know, all you need is a couple of guys who just decide to bail out. The self deportation of Republicans has been a constant theme over the last 10 years. Have you noticed that a lot of them go, okay, you know what, I just can't take this anymore. I am just out. And right now, Mike Johnson has no padding at all, no wiggle room on all of this. So it's an interesting non crazy question to ask about all of that.

Molly Jong Fast (31:03)

Yeah.

Charlie Sykes (31:04)

But we have one last comment on this. The fact that Trump decided to play sort of the ultimate card, that I'm not gonna sign any legislation until you guys pass this and then they blow him off, is also an indication of what happens when your approval rating is down to 35, 36%. You just simply do not have political clout. And that felt like a lame ducky kind of a moment.

Molly Jong Fast (31:28)

Yes, I think that's right. I think that's totally right.

Charlie Sykes (31:30)

Why are you pointing at me like that? Why are you pointing at me like that?

Molly Jong Fast (31:33)

Because I have. I have. My podcast is down there.

Charlie Sykes (31:39)

That is completely fine. I was not sure what that particular signal is, but I appreciate it.

Molly Jong Fast (31:46)

It's me being like they're calling me.

Charlie Sykes (31:49)

So anytime. So you come back on my podcast anytime you want and I will of course come back on your podcast because this is the way it works. Molly Jong Fast. Thank you so much.

Molly Jong Fast (32:00)

Yes, thank you. I love being on. Thank you for having me and thank

Charlie Sykes (32:05)

you all for listening to this, this this episode of to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. We continue to do this along with our guests because we have to continually remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones. Thank you.

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Acast powers the world's best podcasts.

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