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Grainger understands that you go to great lengths and sometimes heights to ensure the power is always flowing. Which is why you can count on Grainger for professional grade products and next day delivery. So you have everything you need to get the job done. Call 1-800-granger. Click granger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done. Well, that was a busy week. The FBI raided John Bolton's house. We'll talk about that. Vladimir Putin gives Donald Trump a big middle finger and the Ghislaine Maxwell interview is released. Hey, welcome back to the to the Contrary podcast. I'm Charlie Sykes. This is a special solo edition because I'm trying to explain. I want to try to explain a few things that I've been writing about and talking about for the last week. Let's start with John Bolton, because of course that was the most striking story of the week. My newsletter ran on the headline. What makes you think they won't come for you too? Now, now, in part, that was a reference to John Bolton, but it's a bigger story and I want to try to explain that. Look, John Bolton just last week said that this was a presidency of retribution. And Donald Trump has had it out for his former National Security Advisor since he went rogue. I actually sat down with John bolton back in 2023 at the principal's first conference and I was kind of hard on him. I kind of admit that. Those of you that heard that or, or watch that, I was kind of asking the question, what the fuck were you thinking? Why did John. I Mean, you are a hawk. You'd been able to watch Donald Trump long enough. Did you honestly think you were gonna make a difference? Okay, so let's just leave that aside, because since then, John Bolton has been one of the most consistent and substantive critics of what Donald Trump is doing. In fact, just last week, he was saying how stupid his handling of Vladimir Putin was, that the entire Alaska Anchorage summit, a complete fiasco and a FUBAR wrapped up in a clusterfuck. So the timing of this is rather extraordinary that they would go into his house looking for, I don't know, classified records. Like, I don't want to get too deep into the weeds. A lot of people are going to be doing the parsing. Like, how is this like Mar a Lago? How is this not like Mar a Lago? Isn't this just payback for the investigation to Donald Trump and how hypocritical it is that MAGA is all upset about the possibility that John Bolton might have absconded with certain classified documents. Documents, yeah. You were the same folks that thought that there was no problem with Donald Trump. Let's leave that all aside because. Let's just cut through the shit here, because what's going on has nothing to do with an actual national security investigation. As I wrote. As I wrote over the. Over the weekend, this is about revenge. It's about intimidation. It is about fear. It is about what Donald Trump has been saying his presidency was gonna be about. And it's what Kash Patel signaled. Look, Kash Patel wrote a book about the people in the deep state that they would target. And for reasons best known to them, the Republicans in the United States Senate, as you all know, rolled over and said, yeah, we have no problem with a complete nut bag like Keshe Patel running the FBI along with Dan Bongino. So what do we get? We get these retaliatory investigations. Now, I'm willing to, you know, step back and wait and see. Let's see the evidence that they have. You know, maybe this is a legitimate law enforcement investigation, but that's not why this happened on this Friday in late August. This is sending a message that Donald Trump is going to be doing what he said he was going to be doing. And again, this is not going to be isolated. You know, expect this to be one of many, maybe the first, maybe not many searches, investigations, grand jury hearings, possible indictments. And keep in mind, that's not just that. I mean, these criminal probes are bad enough, but, you know, they bookend all of Trump's other Threats out there. You know, the threats, the lawsuits, the attempts to extort. And he's gone after critics in law firms, academia, and the media. So this is part of the larger campaign. And as Garry Kasparov has pointed out, you know, Donald Trump does not need to throw everybody in jail. What he needs to do is make their lives as difficult as possible. And any of you that have gotten letters from lawyers, threats from lawsuits, you know, the cease and desist letters, you know, preserve all of your records, know that even if you're like, bring it on, I can handle it, there is that residual fear that is that complication. And in this particular case for John Bolton, you have FBI agents going into his home and his office. So John Bolton is. Is not. Is not weak. He is not timid. He's a very, very, very tough guy, and he's been through. But trust me, there's going to be a moment at 3 o' clock in the morning where he wakes up and goes, holy crap, what's going to happen? What is going to happen? And that's exactly what Donald Trump wants. That's part of the authoritarian model that Donald Trump is following. Make as many people frightened and concerned as possible. So keep in mind that this is not a drill, and we're certainly not naive enough to think that we haven't hit bottom yet. But one of the points that I wanted to make when I wrote the piece about what makes you think they're not gonna come for you next was everybody's focusing on things like the troops on the streets of Washington, D.C. and the raid of John Bolton's house. But there was another story last week that I really wanted to underline. And I know that some people are gonna think, oh, this is more Trump Derangement Syndrome. By the way, can I comment on Trump Derangement Syndrome for a moment? I keep thinking the number of things that have happened in the last six months that if I had predicted them last August, if I would have said, well, you know, Jeanine Pirro is going to be U.S. attorney, and cash Patel is going to be the FBI Director, and Dan Bongino is going to be running the FBI, and Pete Hegseth is going to be the Secretary of defense, and RFK Jr. Is going to be the Secretary of Health and Human Services, and he's going to gut all the vaccine research, people would have said, oh, come on. You know, this is just Trump Derangement Syndrome, actually. Trump derangements. The Trump Derangement Syndrome is seeing all this and going, yeah, you know, what could happen, what could go wrong? In any case, I know that there are people who say that. Well, just because they're going after John Bolton, Charlie Sykes, why are you saying that? What makes you think they won't come after you next? Well, it's. It's other story, in part. And I really want to stress that it's important not to get numbed by this, even though we know that lots happened so far, because it's going to get worse. You know, the Washington Post just recently wrote, look, the president's broken one of the chief taboos of an independent justice system. He's using it to attack his political enemies. We know all that, okay? We know that Donald Trump doesn't make a really strong distinction between the public and the private sectors. I wrote a piece called the Emperor of Everything. Donald Trump doesn't make a distinction between his powers as a limited government official within limited government. Remember when conservatives used to believe in limited government? The right wing doesn't. And I think that that's a distinction. So we know that Donald Trump feels that he has the ability to get revenge against anybody using government power or using the private sector. And we've seen that again with the law firms, with media companies and the media. Some of them are faced with government retaliation. At Paramount, cbs, some of them were just faced with lawsuits, libel cases that they could have won easily, but they did not want the hassle. Okay? So that's just the context for this. I wanted to make sure that people saw that story that broke about the administration planning to review all 55 million foreigners with US visas to see if they have any violation. Now, on the surface, it's like we just want to make sure that they're not overstaying their visas and they're not criminals and they're, you know. Right. The usual sort of thing. But don't gloss over the details in all of this. This is very much a bfd. And my guess is that a lot of people are going, well, I'm not a visa holder. I'm a U.S. citizen, so I'm not really going to worry about this too much. But listen to how the Trump regime is going to go about vetting, surveilling, monitoring 55 million visa holders. The reviews will include new tools for data collection on past, present and future visa applications, including a complete scouring of social media sites made possible by new requirements introduced earlier this year. So this is not new. This is not just a proposal. They are actually doing this. I mean, I hope people caught that the federal government is going to be surveilling all visa holders social media accounts, and they'll be reading it all, everything they write, everything they post, everything they think. This is speech. This is protected speech. Now, Marco Rubio has already started deporting people based on what I think arguably is protected free speech. And there's a lawsuit, Garry Kasparov and others are behind this lawsuit challenging Rubio's power to do this. But they've already begun doing it. The new rule, new government rules make it mandatory for privacy switches on cell phones and other electronic devices or apps to be turned off when an applicant appears for a visa interview. So much for search and seizure. So much for privacy rights. They're requiring this. And again, we're talking about visa applicants, not US Citizens yet. But keep in mind that they're already doing this. This is back to the AP story. The review of all visa holders appears to be a significant expansion of what had initially been a process focused mainly on students who have been involved in what the government perceives as pro Palestinian or anti Israeli activity. What this points to, along with other signals the Trump administration is sending, such as detaining people and revoking student visas for participating in protests the government deems anti Semitic or sympathetic to groups like Hamas, is the increase of social media and this kind of surveillance to make very high stakes determinations about people. Okay, can we pause on that point for just a moment? Because the Trump regime is looking for politically unacceptable thought and speech. Now, first they came for the pro Palestinians, and a lot of Americans didn't care because they're not pro Palestinian. Right. But my question is, who's next? What other kinds of speech will be banned? Because we see how this creeps. We see how this expands. I mean, so will visa holders or applicants who criticize Trump's immigration policies, will they be rejected? I mean, what about posts that criticize Russia or support Ukraine or point out that slavery was really bad? If they commit the same crime to, say, the Smithsonian Institution? So what happens if somebody comes in and they look at their phone and they say, yeah, we think Trump is an authoritarian, or we think that Trump is trampling on rights, or we think Trump is a racist, Will they use those comments to deport or to deny visas? I think you have to be naive to think that that won't happen. But here's my point, here's the big point and the point where I really want people to think about that. This is not really about immigration and it's not about foreigners, and it's not about visa holders alone. Because, and I, and I wrote that. I cannot stress this enough. I want you to think about this. A government that has the capacity and the power to do this to 55 million visa holders, the capacity and the power to do this, to scrape through your social media to know what you've been thinking, what you've been reading, what you've been saying, that government is powerful enough to do that to the rest of us as well. If they have the capacity to do that to 55 million people, what makes you think that at some point they will not try to say, well, what else can we access here? All we need to do is label somebody a criminal or label somebody a traitor, or label somebody as some sort of a dissident, and let's do the same kind of thing. So I asked people, look, if the Trump regime has the ability to monitor social media accounts, and they do, and they are allowed to do that, search for politically offensive content. Try to imagine, and I think we've had a failure of imagination before, but try to imagine now, a Trumpified ice, FBI or doj, how they might want to use that against Americans, including you. Including. Including me. Now, I understand the pushback I'm getting, but, but, but, Charlie, come on, come on, come on, come on. You know, what about the Constitution? What about the due process? I mean, what about the course? These things will all protect me. Right? And maybe they will. But are you sure, are you absolutely sure that all of those guardrails will hold? Because haven't we seen this over the last few months? How many of those guardrails have fallen? If I would have told you that we were going to be snatching people off the streets and renditioning them without due process to a gugalag in El Salvador, that we would be sending people to the Sudan, you would have said, oh, Charlie, that's the Trump derangement syndrome. Again, we're not talking about American citizens, but we are talking about people who once were assumed to have certain sets of rights that are now. Big question mark. So Trump's already come for the migrants, the law firms, the universities. He's come for government employees, political opponents, critics in government. He's already come for critics in the media. Just ask, you know, ABC or cbs. So what makes you think that he won't come for you next? Now, I'm not necessarily saying that they're going to not break down your door or that there's going to be, you know, you wake up one morning and there will be ICE agents at your door or the FBI at your door. But what about lawsuits? What about IRS audits? What about other things that would intersect with how you deal with government? And again, I think one of the problems that we've had in confronting this era has been our failure of imagination. And I want to go back to what Garry Kasparov said. I think in our imagination, we're thinking, oh, okay, there'd be tremendous resistance or pushback. Well, or we're thinking there need to be mass arrests or it's not really an authoritarian state until we have tanks in the street. No, it's an authoritarian state. When you are afraid, when you think I was going to say this or I was going to write this, but now I'm thinking maybe I shouldn't, maybe I shouldn't criticize the President, maybe I shouldn't say these things when you start to self censor because you can't have a cop everywhere. Right. But you can't get inside everybody's head. So again, I just want to stress when I go back to this story about how they are, and I don't know that it's been a huge controversy. I mean, as you're watching this, ask yourself whether you've, you've heard or read or seen much about all of this. I mean, we could talk about the Epstein case, we could talk about John Bolton, we could talk about a lot of things. But what about the fact that we are going to be going into all the social media accounts and we're going to be, you're taking all that data, I mean, think about all the data that those Doge kids got, the data, medical, medical records, IRS records, others, the immigration records, and they're putting them all together. This is the great nightmare that privacy advocates have had for some time. And in many ways it exceeds anything that George Orwell might have thought about. All of this information that we had been told would be protected, that would not be used against us. But if somebody had a database that merged all of that information, you know, what, how, I mean, how much information there would be. But I think we also need to think what would somebody, a malign actor, somebody who wants to misuse that, what could they do with that? And as you're watching this group in Washington, as you're watching Pam Bondi, as you're watching Donald Trump, as they go down, their enemies listen and they think about how much pain they can inflict, what makes you think that if they thought that they could use that material, if they had access to that material, what makes you think that they wouldn't try it? And again, this is one of those moments where we have to ask ourselves, and I want to keep just coming back to this point, I'm sorry to keep repeating myself, but if they can do this to 55 million visa holders, that means they have the capacity to do that for the rest of us. And, yes, I know it's kind of old and it's almost become a cliche. It's something you've probably heard for many, many, many years. But as I was writing my Friday newsletter, I was thinking about that famous quote from Martin Niemoller. First, they came for the socialists, and they did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and they did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and they did not speak out because I was not a Jewish. Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me. And that's what I think that we have to think, is that as we go through and you go, okay, they're doing this to migrants. I'm not a migrant. Okay, they're doing this to visa holders. I'm not a visa holder. They're doing this to lawyers and, hey, fuck all lawyers, right? I mean, didn't Shakespeare say, first we kill all lawyers. Who cares about the lawyers? And then they went after the universities and, okay, so the universities are fat and arrogant and too expensive. So, you know, and they're caving in. I mean, you know, Harvard can take care of itself, right? After another. Then they came after the media, you know, and ABC and CBS and others. And there will be more, trust me. Stay tuned on that one. And then the question is, you know, once you've broken down all of these barriers, once you've done all this, really, how confident are you? And I guess this is this moment where we need to not be hysterical, but also not have the failure of imagination to understand that could happen. Okay, so that was my big story. That was my rant on Friday. I want to make another point about something that happened this week, the Goldfish Punditry in Memory, by which I was inspired by Ted Lasso. Those of you who really know this Ted Lasso said, the happiest creatures on earth are goldfish, because they have a memory of only 10 seconds. So when bad things happen, they forget about them. And it did occur to me that a lot of our politics seems to be goldfish, goldfish politics, that people forget things. So, you know, when Donald Trump got together with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, a Week or so ago. People need to be reminded, okay, can we just remember that Donald Trump has been trying to kiss Vladimir Putin's toes? Not just since, like last week or last month or last year or last decade. This has been going on and on and on. This is the man that stood next to him in Helsinki and agreed with Vladimir Putin over American intelligence agencies. This is the same Donald Trump who told Bill O'Reilly, when Bill O'Reilly asked him, well, you know, Vladimir Putin murders people. And Trump said, yeah, lots of people murder people. This is somebody who has ripped and criticized virtually every other world leader, but until very recently, has never said a single negative thing about Vladimir Putin. So how could we possibly be surprised at watching Donald Trump roll out the red carpet for this accused, indicted war criminal and suck up to him? I mean, it was like people were shocked by the humiliation. But even worse than that, even worse than that was like two days later. So this, the Anchorage thing occurred on the summit, the fake summit with no deal, where Donald, a smirking Vladimir Putin just steamrolled Donald Trump. So was two days later, three days later, the leaders of the Western world rushed to the White House to stop Donald Trump from betraying the entire Western alliance. And there were a lot of pundits who had actually seen what had happened on Friday with their own eyes and were suddenly going, well, maybe this will work out okay. Maybe in fact, there will be a deal. Donald Trump looks a lot more presidential. This looks like real diplomacy, folks. This was a kabuki dance. This was people going through the motions, you know, stroking Donald Trump so that he did not do something irreversible and catastrophic. Because the reality is that any idea that there was going to be a Trump brokered peace deal with Russia was absolute delusion. Which is the nice way of saying bullshit with fur on it. Because all of that talk and I'm looking around going, you guys remember who Donald Trump is, right? You remember what his relationship with Vladimir Putin is. You saw that smirk on Vladimir Putin's face. You think that he's actually going to cut a peace deal? And here's the fundamental delusion. The fundamental delusion is that Vladimir Putin wants peace. You start with that assumption and it's like, okay, wait, have you forgotten who Vladimir Putin is? Have you forgotten that he breaks every promise he makes? Have you forgotten that he murders his opponents? Have you forgotten the war crimes that he's committed in Ukraine? And yet suddenly we're going, well, you know, maybe there is a formula out there. We have some kind of peace. The Europeans went along with it because they were trying to put out a fire. But you knew that you were straying into the area of pure delusion when they began talking about security guarantees. Ok, you would cave into Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump and allow the Russians to keep a lot of Ukrainian territory, right, that they had stolen through their illegal genocidal invasion. But the shrunken Ukraine would get security guarantees which would, okay, soften it, lead us to peace. Now, this, of course, was after Donald Trump had reversed himself, actually reversed himself on a lot of things. Reversed himself on whether we should have a ceasefire first. You know, he's flying to Anchorage, he wants a ceasefire. He looks into Vladimir Putin's eyes and goes, oh, no, no, no, we don't need a ceasefire. I'm actually going to parrot your line about this. This is after Donald Trump had threatened sanctions, which he completely tacoed on. Trump always chickens out, completely did this. But we're supposed to believe that. Yeah, the key here, the magic formula, is security guarantees. Okay, this is where the goldfish memory comes in again. You know, some of you may remember this, maybe you don't. 1994, you know, newly independent Ukraine agrees to give up its nuclear arsenal in return for, you guessed it, security guarantees from the United States, the United Kingdom and Russia, which promised that Ukraine would be inviolate, would be protected. Russia said, absolutely. We wouldn't think of invading it and snatching your children or anything. And so the Ukrainians gave up their nuclear weapons in return for those security guarantees, which mean absolutely nothing. I think we realize that now. But here is the other thing, and part of this is the. I think I wrote this too. The fact that this whole Alaska summit was kind of was Munich for idiots, because a lot of the negotiation was conducted by this Trump buddy named Steve Witkoff, who is, I'm sorry, just a complete idiot. I mean, the guy's not even a useful idiot. I mean, he's a useless idiot who gets things wrong all the time. So he comes back and, you know, from this, from Alaska and says, well, you know, maybe if we had an Article 5 type security guarantee, this would be acceptable. The Russians might go along with this. Well, okay, anybody that knows anything about this knows this was complete and utter Bullshit. Okay? Article 5 is part of the NATO charter that commits members to come to the defense of other members if they've been attacked. Now, it's only been invoked once, when the Europeans came to our defense after 9, 11. And one of the big questions in Trump's first term was whether he would Honor the United States Article 5 commitments to European countries that might be attacked by Russia. And it was never that clear, at least credibly clear, that Donald Trump would actually do that. But Article 5 is inseparable from NATO. And so Steve Witkoff is so stupid that he thinks that Vladimir Putin is going to agree to sort of a quasi NATO like commitment to defend Ukraine if it's attacked again. Now look, there's a lot of reasons why Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine. I mean, he wants to be, you know, Peter the Great again. He wants to restore the Soviet Union. He's a genocidal monster and war criminal. But he also absolutely, positively does not want Ukraine to be part of NATO. I mean, I think he's made that pretty clear. Even Donald Trump is saying, yeah, absolutely, no NATO, we're not going to do NATO. Well, what's the point of not being in NATO if NATO basically gives you an Article 5 like commitment, which might include what, European troops in Ukraine? So I'm reading this going, honestly, is anybody taking this seriously? Does anybody think that Vladimir Putin is going to go along with this? I mean, this is just complete nonsense. And of course they didn't go along. They didn't go along with it. In fact, Donald Trump kind of cut the knees out from under it, you know, cut it off at the knees when he said, I want to make it clear that we're not going to have any American boots on the ground. Fine. There might be air, you know, American air support. Really? How credible is that? How credible is that? Well, Kremlin made it absolutely clear that whatever Steve Witkoff said, there was no way they were ever going to agree with that. That was a complete non starter. Forget about it. It is not going to happen. And in case there was any ambiguity about that over the next couple of days, what did Vladimir Putin do? He targeted an American owned electronics plant in western Ukraine for attack. Now, most of the Russian attacks have not been in western Ukraine. So they kind of went out of their way to do this. The Trump people have been saying, well, one of the security guarantees, we'll have lots of American investment in Ukraine and no one's going to attack American investment. That's kind of like a tripwire, right? That's kind of our security guarantee. Well, Vladimir Putin basically just cranks up this giant middle finger to Donald Trump. He had just a couple of days after sucking up, what does he do? He attacks an American company and then they basically say he had this whole idea of brokering a deal, I mean, brokering another summit, a Trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky and Trump, yeah, we're gonna nuke that. We are gonna urinate on that from a great height. So first they told Donald Trump, yeah, you don't need to show up. Yeah, hey, thanks, but no. And then they made it very clear in the last couple of days that Vladimir Putin is not going to sit down with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And this is one of those moments where you go, okay, who thought this was going to work? Who thought it was going to happen? And this is why I'm using that analogy of the goldfish. If you're going to think that Vladimir Putin is going to do something completely inconsistent with anything he's done in the past, if you think that Donald Trump is somebody other than what he is, if. Forget what this war is about, what the stakes are, it's everything. You might actually have bought a lot of the wish casting and wishful thinking of the last week, but here we are. It is not going to happen. So Donald Trump is sitting there in the Oval Office and he's still making his bid for the Nobel Prize. I have solved seven wars. It's all bullshit. Seven wars. But this one's turning out to be kind of different. And who knew, who knew that, you know, and every once in a while, Trump will have those moments where he goes, yeah, who knew that health care was that complicated? I mean, who knew that, you know, that I couldn't solve the Russia, Ukraine war in the first 24 hours? And, you know, maybe in a couple of months from now it'll be, yeah, who knew that, you know, cutting, cutting off vaccines might bring measles and polio back? Or who knew that the tariffs were actually taxes and they might be inflationary? And everybody will go, yeah, yeah, really, who knew? And we'll just simply move on. But those are the two points that I wanted to make today. As we go into next week. I'm expecting the next week is going to be kind of interesting. I'm urging people to stay tuned. I said earlier this week in the newsletter that I may have some personal news. I actually thought it was going to happen this last week. It may happen this next week. We don't know. But I want people to stay tuned because I think that it will be in the context of some of the things that we have been talking about. I can't say more about that, but how about that for a tease? I mean, this is what is known as a, as a tease in the media to say, you just stay tuned because there's a reason why I think that we should be asking kind of the kind of questions we've been asking, like, what makes you think Donald Trump will not be coming for you? Listen, thank you for tuning into this episode of to the Contrary podcast. Thank you for putting up with a solo version of that podcast. And we will continue to do this for as long as necessary, because now more than ever, it is absolutely essential that we remind ourselves that we are not the crazy ones. Thank you. AI is transforming customer service. It's real and it works. And with fin, we've built the number one AI agent for customer service. We're seeing lots of cases where it's solving up to 90% of real queries for real businesses. This includes the real world complex stuff like issuing a refund or canceling an order. And we also see it when FIN goes up against competitors. 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