Today, Explained – "How Trump-Style Authoritarians Lose" (Feb 17, 2026)
Hosts: Noel King & Zach Beauchamp (Vox)

Episode Overview

This episode investigates how Brazil—a country that elected a right-wing populist leader often compared to Donald Trump—ultimately resisted a slide into authoritarianism. In the wake of Jair Bolsonaro's 27-year prison sentence for plotting a military coup, host Noel King and senior Vox correspondent Zach Beauchamp break down the parallels with recent American politics and extract lessons for defending democracy in the United States.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Bolsonaro–Trump Parallel

• Bolsonaro as "Trump of the Tropics": Bolsonaro, former army captain and populist firebrand, mirrored Trump in rhetoric, anti-elite posture, and tactics—right down to inciting a violent attack on Brazil’s capitol after losing re-election.

  "He did a lot of similar stuff to what Trump has done in his term... In a way, Bolsonaro presaged him."
  —Zach Beauchamp (04:27)

• Bolsonaro's Downfall: Unlike Trump (to date), Brazil's institutions prosecuted and imprisoned Bolsonaro, barring him from office.

  "He plotted a military coup... The only reason there wasn’t a military coup is because two of the heads of the military said ‘no’... Bolsonaro was investigated, arrested, thrown in jail and disqualified."
  —Zach Beauchamp (04:54, 06:03)

2. Roots of Authoritarian Populism in Brazil

• Corruption Scandal as Catalyst: The “Petrobras” scandal—“by one metric the largest political scandal in terms of dollars of any democracy ever”—fueled anti-elite populism, creating an opening for Bolsonaro.

  “The wide scope of the corruption scandal combined with the economic downturn created a sense among Brazilians that the elite couldn't be trusted.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (07:27)

• Bolsonaro the Outlier: Originally a fringe figure noted for extreme statements (including open admiration of dictatorship), Bolsonaro embodied “throw the bums out” anger.

  “For me, he was insane.”
  —Ana Clara Costa, Brazilian journalist (09:06)

3. Why Did Brazilian Democracy Prove More Resilient Than America's?

• Fragmented Multi-Party System: Unlike the polarized two-party US system, Brazil’s Congress is split among ~20 parties—making a presidential power grab nearly impossible.

  “No president can ever, ever have an outright majority in Congress... They end up making laws in a very different way than in the US.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (11:22)

• Legislative Incentives: Lawmakers’ personal interests (reelection, patronage, sometimes outright corruption) motivate them to protect congressional powers—even against their own president’s overreach.

  “If Congress gives up power... they lose the ability to give themselves pragmatic, concrete goods... Ironically, the failure to get rid of corruption might end up being one of the reasons why its legislature... was so resilient to a would-be dictator.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (13:04, 14:47)

• Memorable moment:

  "There's no interest in the parliament in a dictator."
  —Pedro Doria, Brazilian journalist (13:20)

4. What Can the US Learn?

• Not a Call for Corruption—but for Independence

  “The lesson of Brazil is not that you should just have corruption, it’s that it is very good when there are incentives for legislators to behave independently from the president.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (19:11)

• Concrete Reforms for the US:
  • Eliminate Congressional Primaries: To weaken ideological party control.
  • Ban Partisan Gerrymandering: Increase legislative independence and accountability.
  • Reform Executive Orders: Make them expire unless Congress affirms—like in Brazil—forcing legislators to take responsibility for executive actions.

    “In Brazil, [executive orders] expire without full approval after a certain period from Congress. We could do a version of that in the US.”
    —Zach Beauchamp (21:29)

5. How to Fight Rising Authoritarianism—RIGHT NOW

• Reject Defeatist Wisdom: Engage the public on democracy directly instead of assuming the abstractness will fail to motivate people.

  “The conventional wisdom is that you shouldn’t talk about democracy... I just think that’s completely wrong, just completely wrong.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (23:33)

• Tie Democracy to Concrete Issues:

  “When you tie it to a specific abuse by the government… that resonates.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (25:38)

• Mobilization Works: Inspired by examples in South Korea and Minneapolis, civic resistance can physically and politically disrupt authoritarian power grabs.

  “The brutality and lawlessness of ICE people has mobilized one of the most extraordinary resistance movements in American history… This kind of stuff is really connected with normies.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (26:56)

• Call to Action:

  “Standing up matters… Having faith in citizens—that if you can tie [democracy] to something… specific, concrete, and real, that they’ll be willing to do the same.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (27:57)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Trump–Bolsonaro comparison:

  "He did a lot of similar stuff to what Trump has done in his term... In a way, Bolsonaro presaged him."
  —Zach Beauchamp (04:27)

• On the resilience of Brazil’s legislature:

  "There's no interest in the parliament in a dictator."
  —Pedro Doria (13:20)

• On the reason multi-party democracy helps:

  “If Congress gives up power… they lose the ability to give themselves pragmatic, concrete goods... Ironically, the failure to get rid of corruption might end up being one of the reasons why its legislature... was so resilient to a would-be dictator.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (14:47)

• On what the US should not do:

  "The lesson of Brazil is not that you should just have corruption, it’s that it is very good when there are incentives for legislators to behave independently from the president.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (19:11)

• On talking about democracy:

  “Don’t listen to people who tell you to stop talking about democracy... You should be vocally talking about there being a threat to democracy.”
  —Zach Beauchamp (25:38)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:00–04:59] | Setting the table: What happened in Brazil, how it parallels the US experience.
• [05:00–07:57] | Deep dive on corruption’s impact and Bolsonaro’s rise.
• [08:00–14:59] | Voices from Brazil: Why Bolsonaro appealed; neighbor and journalists reflect.
• [15:00–18:43] | The structure of Brazil’s multi-party system; pork-barrel politics as a bulwark.
• [18:44–22:00] | What the US can learn—and cannot simply import—from Brazil’s legislative resilience.
• [22:01–27:57] | What defenders of democracy can do now; lessons from Brazil, South Korea, and Minneapolis; advice to "fight for it and win."

Conclusion

This episode dissects the surprising factors that helped Brazil’s democracy withstand an authoritarian assault—shedding light on the power of legislative independence (even when rooted in self-interest), the value of multi-party fragmentation, and the effectiveness of mass mobilization. It urges American listeners and lawmakers to pursue reforms—notably those that induce independence among members of Congress—and to not shy away from making the defense of democracy a rallying cry, tied to the everyday realities of citizens’ lives.

Produced by Miles Bryan. Edited by Jolie Myers. Fact-checked by Andrea Lopez Cruzado. Engineering by Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore.