Today, Explained — "RFK Jr.'s New Food Pyramid" (January 16, 2026)

Episode Overview

This episode explores major changes to the federal dietary guidelines recently released by Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. The hosts—Noel King (with guest food journalist Jane Black) and later Liz Dunn—discuss how the new food pyramid upends decades of advice, the politics behind it, broader food trends for 2026, and what these shifts may mean for Americans culturally and practically.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The New Food Pyramid: Summary & Intent

• RFK Jr.’s Mission:

  • RFK Jr. made bold declarations:
    • "Our government declares war on added sugar." (B, 00:07)
    • "...ending the war on saturated fats." (B, 00:13)
  • The food pyramid has been turned upside down, promoting whole, nutrient-dense foods over grains and processed items.
  • The new guidelines focus on "real food," emphasizing whole milk, cheese, eggs, steak, and also fruits and vegetables, while grains are now minimized.

• What’s Different?

  • Old pyramid: Grains at the base, fats (like butter, meat, eggs) at the top.
  • New pyramid: Now, fatty animal products and proteins are on top, grains are at the tiny point at the bottom.
  • Jane Black: "[The pyramid] is wacky because if you can picture the old food pyramid, remember grains were at the bottom...they flipped the entire thing upside down." (D, 01:40)

2. Confused Messaging on Saturated Fats

• Mixed Messages:

  • Promotional materials seem to celebrate meat and dairy.
    • Jane Black: "So now at the top you have cheese and eggs and steak and whole milk and yes, also fruits and vegetables." (D, 02:13)
  • However, the official recommendation still caps saturated fats at 10% of the diet, unchanged from past guidelines.
  • There’s an unresolved contradiction between the “war on fat” ending rhetoric and the persistence of the old limit.
  • "They're not kind of reconciling how those two things happen at the same time." (D, 03:39)

• Political Calculus:

  • Last-minute decision to retain the saturated fat cap to avoid controversy and media focus.
    • "From off the record conversations, it seems that they just didn't want to have that kind of controversy...they decided to just leave it, recommend what they wanted to recommend. And now we're in a bit of a muddle." (D, 04:19)

3. Grains Down, Sugar Under Siege

• Grains Demoted:

  • Grains, especially refined ones, are now at the bottom—reversing years of dietary advice.
    • "So, you know, say kiss your favorite pasta goodbye..." (D, 05:18)

• Aggressive Sugar Restrictions:

  • A heavily publicized "war on sugar," especially added sugars for adults and children.
    • RFK Jr.: "Our government declares war on added sugar." (B, 05:48)
    • "They have said that children under 10 should have no added sugars at all. So no Halloween, no birthday parties, no Christmas cookies..." (D, 06:19)
  • Hosts and guests express skepticism about these recommendations' practicality.

4. Aligning with Broader Political Trends

• Trump Administration Echoes:

  • The administration has also intervened on food dye bans and pushed for the return of whole milk in schools.
  • Trump publicly praised Coca-Cola's shift toward real sugar:
    • "I'd like to thank all of those in authority at Coca Cola. This will be a very good move by them." (F, 07:03)

• Ultra-Processed Foods as Enemy #1:

  • The guidelines avoid the term "ultra processed" for technical reasons, instead targeting "highly processed" foods.
  • Messaging is clear: Avoid foods with many artificial or unpronounceable ingredients.

• Questionable Independence in "Gold Standard Science":

  • The guidelines loudly reject "industry-influenced science" in favor of "gold standard" studies—but many pro-meat/dairy studies cited are funded by industry players.
    • "Those studies are funded by people like the National Cattlemen's association or the National Dairy Council or the Texas Beef Council." (D, 08:57)

5. Impact: What Actually Changes?

• Applied Where?

  • Dietary guidelines chiefly affect institutional settings: school lunches, military canteens, etc.
    • "They have been guidelines that direct what schools can put on the menu at school lunch and what kinds of foods are served in military canteens." (D, 09:06)

• Barriers to Implementation:

  • Can schools afford to serve more meat and fewer grains? Budgets and practicalities questioned.

6. Cultural Shifts & Potential for Real Change

• Political & Cultural Attention:

  • Black argues RFK Jr. attracts attention from both the right and left, a rare feat in food politics.
    • "He has gotten people's attention on the right, and he has gotten people's attention on the left. And that is remarkable..." (D, 10:04)
  • People may be more likely to follow fun, protein- and fat-forward advice over past admonitions to eat low-fat dairy.

• Structural Limits:

  • Real change is slow and difficult, especially with food price/income realities.
  • "You can tell people that ultra processed foods are bad, but if they're still the cheapest and most convenient thing at the grocery store, a lot of people are going to still buy them." (D, 11:30)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• “Our government declares war on added sugar.” — RFK Jr. (B, 00:07)
• “We are ending the war on saturated fats.” — RFK Jr. (B, 00:13)
• "The only thing that anyone has been consistently saying to us for nearly 50 years is, don't eat too much saturated fat." — Jane Black (D, 03:01)
• "Children under 10 should have no added sugars at all. So no Halloween, no birthday parties, no Christmas cookies..." — Jane Black (D, 06:19)
• "They want randomized, controlled Trials, and they don't want scientists that are bought off by industry...and then when you look at...the science saying, you should eat more meat, you should eat more dairy: lo and behold, those studies are funded by people like the National Cattlemen's association or the National Dairy Council..." — Jane Black (D, 08:57)
• “RFK Jr. has gotten people's attention on the right and on the left...a mass movement and a mass caring about food is essential.” — Jane Black (D, 10:04)
• "You can tell people that ultra processed foods are bad, but if they're still the cheapest and most convenient thing at the grocery store, a lot of people are going to still buy them." — Jane Black (D, 11:30)

Predictions for Eating in 2026 (with Liz Dunn, 15:31)

Seven Food Trends for 2026 (16:17)

Liz Dunn, food journalist and co-author of Consumed, outlines her predictions:

1. Post-Peak Protein, Yet More Protein:

   • Protein obsession will continue, supported by the new federal dietary guidelines favoring more protein (E, 16:41–17:51).
   • "Protein was the mega theme of 2025...everyone's talking about protein right now." (E, 16:41)

2. Sugar-Laden Drinks Everywhere:

   • Despite the 'war on sugar', indulgent sweet drinks at chains like Dutch Brothers and fast food restaurants will continue to proliferate—as an affordable treat and business profit center.
     • "I expect to see fast food chains to continue to really push them." (E, 18:46)

3. Supplements Booming:

   • Supplement sales will have their biggest year yet, fueled by the "Make America Healthy Again" ethos and social media influencer culture.
   • "It's anti big pharma, pro big wellness." (E, 20:06)
   • Reference to RFK Jr. previously promoting vitamin A over vaccination for measles.

4. Grocery Market’s 'V'-Shaped Reinvention:

   • Middle-market grocers struggle, while discount (Walmart, Aldi) and premium (Erewhon, Sprouts) grocers thrive.
   • "Those mid price grocers like Kroger’s or Stop and Shop or Albertsons...are really losing share to discounters." (E, 21:14)

5. Phones ‘Eat First’:

   • Social media now drives restaurant decisions. 77% of Gen Z and 79% of millennials consider Instagram- or TikTok-worthiness before eating somewhere.
     • "That's a big factor in the decision making." (E, 23:20)

6. Restaurants Must Adapt to Appetite-Suppressing Drugs (GLP1s):

   • As more diners use drugs that limit appetite, restaurants may shift toward smaller portions yet still need to maintain profits.

7. Big Food is in Big Trouble:

   • Processed food manufacturers, who historically adapted to every diet trend, now face a crisis as the public turns against processed foods generally.
     • "If you're a packaged food company, how do you continue to make profitable products that are not processed..." (E, 24:37)

Fun Prediction from the Host

• Noel King predicts: "This year, kiwis with the skin on are gonna become very big [in] eating." (A, 25:26)
  • Liz Dunn responds: "You know my brother in law does that... It doesn't seem right, Noel." (E, 25:36)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:07 – RFK Jr. declares war on sugar and ends war on saturated fats.
• 01:10 – Episode proper begins: intro with Jane Black on the new pyramid.
• 01:40 – Jane Black describes the flipped pyramid.
• 03:01 – Black discusses decades-long advice about saturated fat.
• 04:19 – Why the guidelines kept fat limits: politics vs. science.
• 05:16 – Grains demoted in new pyramid.
• 06:19 – Sugar restrictions, especially for kids.
• 08:57 – Debate over unbiased science in the guidelines.
• 09:06 – What the guidelines actually change.
• 10:04 – Broader cultural/political resonance of RFK Jr.'s approach.
• 15:31 – Liz Dunn introduces her food predictions for 2026.
• 16:41 – Protein’s enduring cultural cachet.
• 18:46 – Sugary drinks: growth of Dutch Brothers, fast food drinks.
• 20:06 – Fervor for supplements, Make America Healthy Again.
• 21:14 – The fate of grocery stores: discount vs. premium expansion.
• 23:20 – Influence of social media on food choices.
• 24:37 – Processed food industry faces new, deeper skepticism.
• 25:26 – Host's surprising prediction: eating kiwi with skin.

Tone and Style

The discussion is lively, sharp, and slightly irreverent. Both hosts and guests blend skepticism and curiosity, highlighting confusion in government recommendations and recurring frustrations with dietary advice. Jane Black and Liz Dunn bring a blend of humor and expert analysis to nuanced, controversial topics.

Conclusion

The episode offers a comprehensive look at rapidly shifting US dietary guidelines under RFK Jr., details the culture wars and corporate influences underlying these changes, and uses expert insights to forecast future food trends. Listeners learn not just what's changed in the official pyramid, but what it means for daily eating, consumer trends, institutional meals, and (perhaps most surprisingly) social media’s role in shaping what’s for dinner.