Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – “The ¯_(ツ)_/¯ Economy”

Date: December 11, 2025
Hosts: Noel King, Sean Rameswaram
Guests: Neil Irwin (Axios, Chief Economic Correspondent), Andrew Prokop (Vox, Senior Correspondent)

Overview

This episode explores the mounting frustration among Americans over rising costs, the perceived inaction or missteps of political leaders, and the complex dynamics between the Federal Reserve, the White House, and the field of economics. Focusing on President Trump's handling of the affordability crisis, perceptions of the Federal Reserve's role, and the declining influence of economists in policy circles, the hosts and guests break down how the American economy has reached a “¯_(ツ)_/¯” state—defined by resignation, confusion, and lack of consensus about solutions.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Political Response to Economic Anxiety

• Trump’s Reaction to Affordability Crisis
  • President Trump is criticized for not recognizing how expensive life feels for Americans (00:00).
  • At a Pennsylvania rally, he pivoted away from economic discussion, downplayed price concerns, and instead reiterated usual political targets, especially critiquing the Federal Reserve (00:13, 00:29).
  • Trump blames the Federal Reserve for not cutting rates enough and frequently sidesteps responsibility by pointing to external factors (00:39).

2. The Federal Reserve Rate Decision

• Recent Rate Cut and Its Implications
  • The Federal Reserve cut its baseline interest rate by a quarter-point, the third such cut in 2025, lowering the rate by 1.33% from its recent peak (03:40).
  • Fed Chair Jay Powell and colleagues see early signs of labor market weakness, but view current inflation as likely transitory due to tariff impacts (04:04, 04:17).
  • The cut was controversial, with deep internal disagreement among Fed officials (05:14, 05:54).

Who Dissented and Why (04:40–06:29)

• Stephen Miron: Trump appointee, wanted an even bigger cut (half-point), echoing Trump’s position (04:47, 05:05).
• Austan Goolsbee & Jeff Schmidt: Argued against cuts, citing persistent inflation risks (05:14).
• Shadow dissent: Even more officials signaled preference for higher rates via Fed’s internal projections (05:54).

Notable Quotes

• “I am uneasy with front-loading rate cuts. I do believe rates will come down, but in a way rates should come down with inflation. If we’re just counting on that to go away because it’s transitory, that makes me uneasy.” – Neil Irwin, explaining Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee’s stance (05:36)
• “If you count up those dots... there were actually six officials out of the 19 who thought it would make sense to leave interest rates where they are.” – Neil Irwin (05:54)

3. The Disconnect Between Economist Logic and Public Experience

• Competing Views on Affordability
  • Economists believe keeping rates high controls inflation and helps affordability in the long run (08:18).
  • Most Americans see high interest rates as directly making life less affordable (mortgages, car loans, etc.) (08:18).
  • The Fed’s actions often feel unintuitive to regular citizens, and this fuels public frustration (08:00–09:17).

Notable Quote

• “To ordinary people, higher interest rates are part of the affordability crisis... it creates a real disconnect between what the Fed thinks it needs to do… and what's perceived by everybody out there.” – Neil Irwin (08:18)

4. The Fed’s Future: Trump and Political Appointments

• Fed Chair Succession Drama
  • Trump is likely to nominate Kevin Hassett, a consistently loyal adviser, as Fed chair when Jay Powell’s term ends in spring 2026 (09:28–10:14).
  • The move raises concerns about Fed independence, as modern tradition expects some detachment from political pressure (10:44).

Potential Stakes

• Will a Trump-aligned chair maintain the Fed's inflation-fighting resolve, or prioritize short-term political gains? (10:50–11:57)

Notable Quote

• “The question is, would Kevin Hassett or whoever ends up being the next Fed chair be more directly responsive to what the White House wants than has been the modern norm?” – Neil Irwin (10:50)

Main Segment 2: Why American Presidents Stopped Listening to Economists

Guest: Andrew Prokop (Vox)

1. History: Economists and Political Influence

• Economists gained prominence in the 1930s (Keynesians), guided policy through WWII and postwar years (14:29–15:49).
• In the 1970s-80s, neoliberals argued for less government intervention, steering both major parties (16:16–17:44).
• By the 2010s, the idea that “markets know best” dominated (17:44).

Memorable Audio Clippings

• FDR on employment during the Great Depression (15:26)
• Milton Friedman on inflation (16:38)
• Reagan and Clinton on tax and trade reforms (17:13–17:24)

2. The Fall from Grace

• After the Great Recession, Obama still relied on economists (18:23).
• The post-Obama years saw a growing skepticism and eventual sidelining of economists, beginning with Trump’s rise in the GOP and progressive critiques on the left (19:32–20:38).

Trump Era

• Trump ignored economists unless they supported his policies; expertise valued only as political reinforcement (19:42–20:38).

Democratic Shift

• Democratic policy credibility in economics also declined, especially after Trump’s 2016 win; more focus on political priorities or advocacy group demands (21:32–22:55).

Memorable Moment

• “Donald Trump is not interested in the wisdom of economists. Donald Trump is interested in whether economists can lend their imprimatur... to his own policy agenda.” – Andrew Prokop (20:38)

3. What Does This Mean Now?

• Nostalgia for late 2010s’ economy despite prior critiques of economists (23:47).
• Economists argue their warnings were ignored (especially on inflation), but now lack clear solutions for today’s affordability crisis (23:47–25:23).

Notable Quote

• “If people had listened to us a little more, if Joe Biden had listened to us when we were warning about inflation in early 2021, then perhaps we wouldn't have sunk to this pretty bad place where the public is just absolutely furious about affordability and high prices.” – Andrew Prokop (23:47)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (With Timestamps)

• Trump on Jay Powell: “I’ll be honest, I’d love to fire his ass. He should be fired. Guy’s grossly incompetent.” – (06:42)
• On the Fed's credibility: “They have a new word. You know, they always have a hoax. The new word is affordability.” – Donald Trump, relayed by Neil Irwin (07:41)
• The Great Disconnect: “Higher mortgage rates, higher auto loan rates, those are things that make life more expensive. So to you, what the Fed thinks they’re doing to help affordability, help inflation, is actually making affordability worse.” – Neil Irwin (08:18)
• Presidents & Fed Independence: “At the same time, the reason the Fed has this independence is so that they will be willing to do that, to do whatever it takes to keep inflation in check. Will a Chair Hassett or whoever it ends up being be willing to do that?” – Neil Irwin (10:50–11:57)
• Why presidents ignore economists: “He has no use for highfalutin academic debates… While there are certain economists who do hold prominent positions in the Trump administration, they generally hold those positions if and only if they are saying what Donald Trump wants to do.” – Andrew Prokop (19:42, 20:38)

Important Timestamps

• Fed’s decision & reasoning: 03:29–04:25
• Fed dissents explained: 04:40–06:29
• Public vs. economic logic: 08:00–09:17
• Future of Fed, Trump’s likely choice: 09:28–10:44
• Andrew Prokop on decline of economist influence: 14:29–25:23

Takeaways

• Public anger about the cost of living is met with political deflection and blame-shifting, especially toward the Federal Reserve.
• Divergent perspectives exist between economists (focus on long-term inflation control) and the public (immediate affordability concerns), fueling mistrust.
• Trump—and, increasingly, other presidents—rely on instinct and loyalists, discounting expert economic opinion unless it aligns with their agenda.
• The Fed’s independence may erode with further politicized appointments, raising stakes for long-term economic management.
• The field of economics suffers from a lack of consensus on urgent solutions, compounding public malaise and political indecision, leaving the “¯_(ツ)_/¯” economy without clear answers.

This summary encapsulates the episode’s content, perspectives, and tone for listeners who want a deep, timestamped understanding of this moment in America’s political and economic cross-currents.