Vance vs. Rubio 2028

Summary

Today, Explained – “Vance vs. Rubio 2028”

Date: July 16, 2026
Hosts: Astead Herndon (guest hosting), with guests Maggie Haberman (New York Times), Matt Lewis (Notice columnist)

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Overview

This episode dives deep into the looming contest for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, focusing on J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio as heirs to the MAGA movement in the post-Trump era. Featuring New York Times reporter Maggie Haberman and conservative columnist Matt Lewis, the conversation explores Trump’s influence, behind-the-scenes political maneuvering, and the ideological crossroads shaping the GOP.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Succession Question: Vance or Rubio?

[02:18 – 03:34]

• Maggie Haberman recounts a scene from her book “Regime Change” where Donald Trump, at a formal dinner with Rupert Murdoch and other media executives, openly weighs Vance vs. Rubio for 2028.
  • Quote: “Trump is very solicitous of Murdoch. ... In the course of this conversation, he says, you know, what do you think of JD? … Murdoch says, well, JD has the potential to be great. … Trump says, well, what about Marco? And Murdoch says just very flatly, Marco was brilliant and it was uncomfortable at this table according to all of our reporting.” – Maggie Haberman ([03:34])
• Despite public speculation, Haberman asserts there’s no evidence Rubio is preparing to run, though he could “scale up very quickly.”
  • Quote: “Everything we know of right now is that Rubio is going to support Vance. And it would take some tremendously unforeseen circumstance to change that.” – Maggie Haberman ([04:40])

2. Trump’s Succession Games and Personal Dynamics

[05:00 – 07:35]

• Trump loves pitting potential successors against each other, as a matter of personal “sport.”

  • Quote: “He loves pitting people against each other.” – Maggie Haberman ([05:27])

• Trump and Rubio’s once-hostile relationship has transformed into friendly camaraderie, surprising given their past rivalry in 2016.

  • Quote: “Trump just has a better personal chemistry with Rubio, for whatever reason, which is shocking, if you think about 2016.” – Maggie Haberman ([06:00])
  • Memorable Moment: Recap of Trump’s “Little Marco” insult phase, including crude jokes from the 2016 campaign ([06:06]).

• Trump hesitates to anoint a successor, fearing it would cede the spotlight and relevance.

  • Quote: “Trump doesn't wanna see the stage to anybody... The second that he anoints somebody…the clock starts ticking on his own relevance.” – Maggie Haberman ([07:03])

3. Vance's Foreign Policy and Fault Lines with Trump

[07:35 – 11:45]

• Discussion of a memorable Oval Office confrontation with Zelenskyy in 2025, emblematic of Vance’s and Trump’s mutual aversion to Zelenskyy and more isolationist foreign policy.
  • Quote: “Trump dislikes Zelensky enormously. Vance dislikes Zelensky immensely.” – Maggie Haberman ([07:57])
  • Quote: “Everything is sort of through the lens of the box and the performance and the attention economy. It is one of many things that we would not have seen in Trump term one.” – Maggie Haberman ([08:35])
• Key disagreements: Iran war decision (Vance opposed intervention, clashed with Trump) and the push for Epstein file transparency (Vance favored full disclosure, even involving Trump).
  • Quote: “Vance was the only one who really argued forcefully with the president in those rooms against [Iran intervention]. And it cost him with Trump.” – Maggie Haberman ([09:18])
  • Quote: “Vance argued for releasing everything, including uncorroborated information…about Donald Trump. And the White House chief of staff very quickly says, no, actually he would mind.” – Maggie Haberman ([10:57])

4. Vance’s Positioning and Political Calculus

[11:45 – 13:24]

• Vance’s “America First” stance puts him against the prevailing current in Trump’s second-term White House; however, it might actually help him politically after navigating war negotiations from a position of opposition.
  • Quote: “To be the person who was trying to negotiate an end to a war that you didn't believe in… I don't think that's personally a bad political position for Vance to be in.” – Maggie Haberman ([12:53])
  • Quote: “People around Vance are very dismissive of the idea that this is somehow bad for Vance, and I think they have a compelling argument.” – Maggie Haberman ([13:24])

5. Will Trump Endorse Vance for 2028?

[13:24 – 14:23]

• Trump’s endorsement remains elusive—Vance is the frontrunner but Trump prefers to keep his final blessing ambiguous.
  • Quote: “Anybody who is counting on Donald Trump's anything often ends up pretty disappointed. ... I don't think that Trump wants to anoint anyone and I think he's going to torture Vance and make it very difficult for him.” – Maggie Haberman ([13:38])

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Segment 2: Rubio’s Political Journey and Appeal

Guest: Matt Lewis (Notice columnist) [18:35 – 30:33]

1. Matt Lewis’s Evolving View of Rubio

[18:52 – 21:53]

• Lewis describes a “love-hate relationship” with Rubio, starting as a “fanboy” during his 2010 Senate run.
  • Quote: “I may have been the first person to write one of those really wildly naive and premature Marco Rubio for president pieces way back in maybe even 2010, possibly 2011.” – Matt Lewis ([20:50])
  • Reminisces about Rubio’s charisma and optimism, and his vision for a multi-ethnic conservative coalition.

2. How Trump Changed Everything: Rubio’s Adaptation

[22:11 – 23:23]

• Rubio’s surprise loss to Trump led to soul-searching and a shift toward populism and nationalism.
  • Quote: “A lot of us were. So I think it really created almost an identity crisis for a lot of us and it chastened us. Maybe we don't quite understand this party, maybe we don't quite understand this country.” – Matt Lewis ([22:32])
  • Quote: “He's become more populist, he's become more nationalist.” – Matt Lewis ([23:10])

3. Rubio and Republican Immigration Politics

[23:23 – 24:49]

• Recap of Rubio’s prominent role in the failed “Gang of Eight” immigration compromise, and why the GOP’s grassroots base revolted.
  • Quote: “People forget how close Marco was to making this happen… But the grassroots rebelled. You do not wanna touch that rail. And so I do not think we will be seeing any, anybody trying that again for a long, long time in the Republican Party.” – Matt Lewis ([24:49])

4. Rubio’s Role as 'Adult in the Room'?

[25:10 – 26:59]

• Rubio wields policy influence in Trump’s second term, but at what cost? Debate over whether participating in Trump's administration makes him complicit or a moderating force.
  • Quote: “This is the real big question right about him right now… I think there's another argument that says we want him on that wall, we need him on that wall. Like that Rubio is able to sort of mitigate some of the bad things that might otherwise happen.” – Matt Lewis ([25:38])
  • Lewis notes that even progressives might prefer Rubio as a “lesser evil” nominee compared to other possible MAGA successors.

5. The Math of the GOP: Is There Room for a Non-Trumpian?

[26:59 – 27:45]

• The “Never Trump” Republican base is small, but Rubio could leverage Trumpist support as long as he remains in Trump’s good graces.
  • Quote: “I don't think that the Never Trumpers constitute a large enough segment of the electorate to matter much. I do think, though, he can cobble together, as long as he stays in Trump's good graces, a large enough coalition that he could win.” – Matt Lewis ([27:28])

6. Rubio vs. Vance: Strengths & Liabilities

[27:45 – 29:05]

• Rubio is seen as more eloquent and experienced, while Vance is viewed as inconsistent and “cringe” by some on the right.
  • Quote: “J.D. vance has been all over the map. And I think J.D. vance comes across as what the kids today call cringe. … Rubio has been through the wringer, okay? And I think he's grown and matured and he's got experience, he's got knowledge.” – Matt Lewis ([27:58])
• Recalls that Trump may have picked Vance as running mate over Rubio due to concerns about establishment backlash, even assassination fears spread by Tucker Carlson ([28:35]).

7. Could an Outsider Still Disrupt 2028?

[29:05 – 30:33]

• The possibility remains that an outsider, like a Tucker Carlson or even a Trump family member, could disrupt establishment expectations again.
  • Quote: “It absolutely could. … We have lived through what happened with Trump where again, this reality TV star that frankly we all thought initially was kind of a joke. It could happen.” – Matt Lewis ([29:48])
  • Briefly mentions Trump Jr. and Ivanka as speculative wildcards.

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Trump doesn't wanna see the stage to anybody… There's nothing in his history that suggests that he's just gonna go off and do paintings like George W. Bush.” – Maggie Haberman ([07:03])
• “The Republican primary electorate had a golden opportunity to nominate a young, optimistic, eloquent, inspiring Hispanic. And instead they chose a thrice married casino magnate reality show star.” – Matt Lewis ([22:32])
• “You still probably should have some rooting interest in the least bad option being the nominee. Because it almost is a jump ball. All you have to do is look at recent history and Donald Trump in 2016.” – Matt Lewis ([25:38])
• “J.D. Vance comes across as what the kids today call cringe. … Rubio has been through the wringer, okay?” – Matt Lewis ([27:58])
• “It is not entirely implausible [that Trump Jr. or Ivanka could run].” – Matt Lewis ([29:48])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump/Murdoch Dinner & Succession Scene: [03:07 – 04:40]
• Trump’s Succession Psychology: [05:00 – 07:35]
• Vance vs. Trump on Foreign Policy/Epstein Files: [07:35 – 11:45]
• Will Trump Endorse Vance? [13:24 – 14:23]
• Matt Lewis on Rubio’s Political Saga: [18:52 – 21:53]
• Trump’s Impact on Rubio: [22:11 – 23:23]
• Rubio, Immigration, and GOP Base: [23:23 – 24:49]
• Rubio as GOP “Adult in the Room”: [25:10 – 26:59]
• Rubio vs. Vance Comparison: [27:45 – 29:05]
• The Outsider Wildcard: [29:05 – 30:33]

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Tone:
The conversation is analytical, richly detailed, and occasionally irreverent—balancing sharp inside-baseball political insight with candid, sometimes humorous reflection on the personalities and power games driving the 2028 GOP landscape.

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Summary prepared for Today, Explained listeners eager for a deep, thoughtful look at the politics shaping the next Republican presidential contest.

Transcript

[Astead Herndon]

In Donald Trump's second term, there's basically only like five guys who really

[Matt Lewis]

Steve

[Astead Herndon]

Witkoff, Scott Bessant, Stephen Miller, Marco Rubio, and J.D. vance. And those last two, they really matter considering they're the ones who best represent Trump's beliefs, and they're basically the only Republicans who are floated for president in 2028. Vance is out with a new book recently, and he's walked back that cat lady comment, making it pretty clear that he's planning to run for president come next year. But considering how much of Trump's second term has Marco Rubio's fingerprints all over it, who's really the heir apparent to the throne of Donald Trump? And what does that version of MAGA look like? That's coming up on Today Explained from Vox.

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[Astead Herndon]

If it works out, I'm going to take the credit. If it doesn't work out, I'm blaming Today Explained. Yeah, I like that idea. I think it's a good ide. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you. I'm Asted Herndon filling in on Today Explained. When you talk about the inner workings of Trump world, there are few better than Maggie Haberman. Maggie is a New York Times reporter and recently co authored the book Regime Change with Jonathan Swan. It's a bestseller and it digs in to Everything Trump related, including the question of his 2028 endorsement and how he feels about people like Vance and Rubio. So I started by asking her about this incredible scene in the book where Rupert Murdoch is at the White House with Donald Trump. And Trump essentially turns to him and asks him, Vance 2028 or Rubio 2028?

[Maggie Haberman]

So it's October of last year and by this point Trump is suing Rupert Murdoch over the Wall Street Journal's Jeffrey Epstein reporting. And specifically about that birthday card that Trump insists he didn't write that has a very Trumpy looking signature on a fe.

[Astead Herndon]

It's not my signature and it's not

[Matt Lewis]

the way I speak.

[Astead Herndon]

And anybody that's covered me for a long time know that's not my language, it's nonsense.

[Maggie Haberman]

And Murdoch comes to dinner with a bunch of News Corp. Executives from his UK holdings and from the US and so there's New York Post folks there, and it's in the blue room at the White House, very formal dinner. Also there is JD Vance and Usha Vance and Marco Rubio. And Trump is very solicitous of Murdoch. I mean, you would think that nothing has happened. But in the course of this conversation, he says, you know, what do you think of JD And Murdoch says, well, JD has the potential to be great. And Vance, who knows full well that Murdoch had tried very hard to keep Trump from picking Vance. Murdoch does not like Vance's worldview. I mean, you know Vance, he does not believe in the intervention skepticism. So Vance says, you know, thanks a lot, Rupert, thanks a lot. And then Trump says, well, what about Marco? And Murdoch says just very flatly, Marco was brilliant and it was uncomfortable at this table according to all of our reporting. I also want to make clear that we have no reporting that Marco Rubio is running.

[Astead Herndon]

Right?

[Maggie Haberman]

In fact, quite the opposite. Now, he could obviously scale up very quickly. He has run for president before. But everything we know of right now is that Rubio is going to support Mance. And it would take some tremendously unforeseen circumstance to change that.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah, I mean, that's partly what made it so interesting. You know, Rubio, Donald Trump Jr. The turning points groups have all made very clear that they feel like they're lining up behind Vance as Trump's successor. It would seem as if it would take something extraordinary to knock off that path. And yet you have Trump there seemingly dangling his whispered competition in front of him. Is that just sport for the president? Like, how does he view his own succession?

[Maggie Haberman]

Well, look, I mean, as you know, he cause You've watched him a long time, too. He loves pitting people against each other.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah. He does it at the State of the Union. You know, you should be ashamed of yourself. Not standing up. You should be ashamed of yourself.

[Maggie Haberman]

Yes, well, and it's. He did this in 2016 when he was debating between Newt Gingrich, Chris Christie and Mike Pence for vp. You know, he would poll people at fundraisers. Who do you like? But there is something a little different going on here, which is number one. And we write about this in the book. Trump just has a better personal chemistry with Rubio, for whatever reason, which is shocking, if you think about 2016.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah.

[Maggie Haberman]

And what that looked like.

[Astead Herndon]

Little Marco. Little Marco, Little Marco. It was so insulting. It was kind of personal. It felt as if sometimes he was stepping on him. Even after Rubio kind of deferred.

[Maggie Haberman]

There were dick jokes on, you know, the. On stage.

[Astead Herndon]

And you know what they say about

[Maggie Haberman]

men with small hands.

[Matt Lewis]

You can't trust them.

[Maggie Haberman]

You can't trust them. But for whatever reason, they do better together. Trump likes being around Rubio. He likes talking to Rubio.

[Astead Herndon]

I think he'll go down as the greatest Secretary of State in the history of our country. I really believe that. Marco. I wouldn't say it. Marco Rubio. I wouldn't say it. Maybe I would.

[Maggie Haberman]

He also is a pretty calm presence around Trump. The age gap between Vance and Trump is a real thing. I mean, that has come up repeatedly.

[Astead Herndon]

Just like different generations. Or it's just a harder vibe to make work.

[Maggie Haberman]

I think it's just a harder vibe to make work. I also think that, you know, as much as we think of Donald Trump as extremely online, he's extremely online in a specific way.

[Astead Herndon]

Yeah.

[Maggie Haberman]

Really is extremely online in sort of a generational way. And everyone around him would acknowledge that. But Trump. You said the successor thing. Trump doesn't wanna see the stage to anybody. I mean, the second that he anoints somebody or backs somebody or whatever, the clock starts ticking on his own relevance, even though he's never going to allow himself to be irrelevant. And it's really hard to think of a world where that happens. But there is nothing in his history that suggests that he's just gonna go off and do paintings like George W. Bush.

[Astead Herndon]

So, yeah, I wanted to ask about this specific scene I think is most memorable with Vance, which I think is that Oval Office kind of ambush of Zelenskyy in 2025. You're playing seriously. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. You're Gambling with World War three, which read to me as just such a set play performance for the President. How was that received by Trump?

[Maggie Haberman]

So it's interesting our reporting was that it was not actually an ambush. It wasn't a. But it did flow pretty naturally from Trump dislikes Zelensky enormously. Vance dislikes Zelensky immensely.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Have you said thank you once?

[Astead Herndon]

No. In this entire meeting have you said thank you?

[Maggie Haberman]

And so Vance certainly saw an opportunity, but it was not. There's nothing in our reporting that suggested this was a pre planned tennis match between Trump and Vance.

[Astead Herndon]

It just flows from their natural kind of shared dislike of the guy.

[Maggie Haberman]

Correct. And then. But what also flows naturally is Trump saying at the very end, this is

[Astead Herndon]

going to be great television.

[Maggie Haberman]

I will say, because everything is sort of through the lens of the box and the performance and the attention economy. It is one of many things that we would not have seen in Trump term one. It is one of the many ways this term is so radically unrecognizable to term one.

[Astead Herndon]

You know, the book lays out areas of daylight between Trump and Vance that are also super important. These are the fault lines that come up in our reporting. Also Epstein files the Iran war and both Vance ends up on the different side than the President, I guess. Since Donald Trump still went through with said decisions. How significant were these disagreements and how much did it shift their relationship?

[Maggie Haberman]

It's a good question. I don't know that I could say shift the relationship. I can certainly say that there have been irritation points over a number of issues, including the ones that you just described. But there's nothing more consequential that a president does than take a country to war. And so we got very deep inside Situation Room meetings about what that was going to look like. There was nobody in Trump's orbit who thought that going the closest would be Hegseth, but that thought that this regime change potential effort was wise. John Radcliffe, the CIA director, Marco Rubio, Dan Cain, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Hegseth was in the room, as I just said, you know, Susie Wiles, J.D. vance. Vance was the only one who really argued forcefully with the president in those rooms against it. And it cost him with Trump. Trump got very irritated and there was some lingering irritation over that. In terms of Epstein just did not want to talk about it. Kept calling it a Democratic hoax. However, there were members of the administration, including Vance, who had been talking about the need for transparency for many years. Remember when we learned that our wealthiest

[Astead Herndon]

and most powerful people were connected to A guy who ran a literal child sex trafficking rink. And then that guy died mysteriously in a jail.

[Matt Lewis]

And.

[Astead Herndon]

And now we just don't talk about it.

[Maggie Haberman]

Vance argued for releasing everything, including uncorroborated information, including uncorroborated information about Donald Trump. And there's this incredible meeting in mid August of last year where they're having this conversation about a planned website like a public facing DOJ created Jeffrey Epstein file.

[Astead Herndon]

Here it all is.

[Maggie Haberman]

Here it all is. Here it's. But an aide had looked up Trump's name in this beta version of this website prior to this meeting. And the first thing that came up was this secondhand uncorroborated and by the way, already public unsealed a year and a half earlier in a civil case allegation that Trump had abused some woman's nipples. And this person in the meeting raises this and says, this is out there. And Vance argues for releasing it and says that he doesn't think the President would mind. He's been accused of worse. And the White House chief of staff very quickly says, no, actually he would mind. And there were other aspects of this discussion, but the website thing goes away. So it doesn't help. A case that Vance is especially powerful with Trump, that on these two issues he was on the other side of him and was not listened to.

[Astead Herndon]

Right. In some ways, it feels like one vision of the world has won a policy battle while Vance has set him up for the kind of political battle to come. But I guess I just wanted to ask the question more clearly, like, how has Vance navigated his America first, first position in a White House that's increasingly feels non America first? Like, is there a risk? Do we think that that drags him down with him?

[Maggie Haberman]

I don't think it's totally black and white. I think that there's a nuance there. Rubio really has had a foreign policy conversion over many years. He has really pulled back from his far more interventionist view, far more hawkish view in terms of Vance. There were moments during the 12 Day War where Trump was not happy that Vance didn't say obliterated. We obliterated the nuclear sites. And so that was an example where Vance was sort of walking this line, where he then went back out on TV and was much clearer.

[Matt Lewis]

We feel very confident that the Fordo nuclear site was substantially set back and that was our goal.

[Maggie Haberman]

He's also aware that he is the Vice President and the President sets the policy. And so Vance was against this war is quite well known. And so to be the person who was trying to negotiate an end to a war that you didn't believe in in the first place. I don't think that's personally a bad political position for Vance to be in, and people around Vance are very dismissive of the idea that this is somehow bad for Vance, and I think they have a compelling argument as to why that is. I hear that it's a no lose for Vance on that one.

[Astead Herndon]

I guess my last question would be kind of the brass tacks, one like Vance has spent the whole term working to stay and kind of walking in this line. As we Talked when his 2028 campaign launches, do you think he can count on a Trump endorsement?

[Maggie Haberman]

I think anybody who is counting on Donald Trump's anything often ends up pretty disappointed. But I also think that Vance is the presumptive frontrunner right now and it's hard for me to see who else that could be. And so while I don't think that Trump wants to anoint anyone and I think he's going to torture Vance and make it very difficult for him, as we lay out in the book if Vance is the likely nominee, it's also hard for me to being the person who undermines that completely because it's still something he can take credit for.

[Astead Herndon]

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times the book is Regime Change Coming up. Marco Rubio hasn't said he's running for president in 2028, but could he and would he beat Vance in a nomination if he wanted it?

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[Astead Herndon]

And you know what they say about today. Explained you can't trust them.

[Maggie Haberman]

You can't trust them all right.

[Astead Herndon]

Matt Lewis is a conservative columnist at Notice, but also has been someone who's been following changes on the right for decade and plus and I would say particularly since 2016. A lot of the changes that Donald Trump has introduced. Matt, thanks for joining us.

[Matt Lewis]

Well, thank you for having me.

[Astead Herndon]

We spent the first half of the show talking about JD Vance and we were focusing on him because all the stars have aligned for a Republican Party that seems set to coronate him after Donald Trump leaves office in 2027, 2028. And there's not necessarily any factual reporting that Marco Rubio's interested in running or that he's making plan. But we also seem like we're somewhat in a Rubio moment. He seems to be growing some power in the White House and there are folks who are increasingly calling for him to re emerge as maybe a Republican Party voice for the post Trump era. I wanted to know, are you one of those folks?

[Matt Lewis]

Sort of. I've had a long love hate relationship with Marco Rubio. I went from being a fanboy to being very disenchanted with him more recently. And now that we are facing the possibility that he could emerge as the Republican standard bearer, I'm Marco, curious again.

[Astead Herndon]

Well, let's start at the beginning when you said you were a Marco fanboy. Where does that begin?

[Matt Lewis]

So Marco Rubio runs for Senate in 2010. And I was working at the now defunct AOL Politics Daily at the time. Charlie Crist was the sitting governor of Florida. He was wildly popular. Believe it or not, Rubio was going to run against him in the Republican Senate primary. And Rubio just couldn't get any traction. So his team decided instead of trying to get media attention in Florida, we will go national and we will force the local media to cover us. And it really worked. But I was one of the beneficiaries of that. As a youngish conservative blogger and columnist. I had a lot of access all of a sudden with this young, charismatic, up and coming politician, Marco Rubio. Of course, he goes on to win that ra.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Thank you.

[Matt Lewis]

I'm glad you didn't say Polo.

[Astead Herndon]

That would have thrown us all off.

[Matt Lewis]

And I may have been the first person to write one of those really wildly naive and premature Marco Rubio for president pieces way back in maybe even 2010, possibly 2011. But I also thought Rubio was maybe just a once in a generation talent. His ability was incredibly eloquent. He gave a great, probably the best pro life speech I've ever heard in my life. I think it was in 2012 at the Susan B. Anthony Listen Gala.

[Astead Herndon]

All life. In a planet where life is increasingly

[Matt Lewis]

not valued, in a planet where people are summarily discarded, all life is worthy of protection and all life enjoys God's Love. He was young, kind of Kennedy esque, boyish, you know, charm, good looks, my brand of optimistic Reaganite conservatism. And the fact that he was also fluent in Spanish, I thought could possibly open some doors to communicating the conservative message to a broader, broader audience than we had done up until that point.

[Astead Herndon]

And I think that was certainly the Rubio logic. Well, you know, obviously this runs up against the buzzsaw that is Donald Trump as a Rubio fanboy, or at least self described. At least initially.

[Matt Lewis]

Self described, Yeah.

[Astead Herndon]

I mean, how did your feelings change about him in that first term of Trump?

[Matt Lewis]

I think that Rubio very early on realized, I think that he was shocked that he, not only that he lost the primary for president, the 2016 primary, but that Trump went on to win. A lot of us were. So I think it really created

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almost

[Matt Lewis]

an identity crisis for a lot of us and it chastened us. Maybe we don't quite understand this party, maybe we don't quite understand this country. And that led to like a lot of soul searching. I mean, think of it it this way. The Republican primary electorate had a golden opportunity to nominate a young, optimistic, eloquent, inspiring Hispanic. And instead they chose a thrice married casino magnate reality show star. I mean that, that, that tells you all that there is about it. And so I think Rubio kind of went back and reverse engineered some parts of his. Not just the way he communicates, but his philosophy. He's become more populist, he's become more nationalist.

[Astead Herndon]

The other issue that comes to mind when we think about what defined Rubio was initially his openness to immigration reform and leading the Gang of Eight and initial congressional discussions around a comprehensive immigration bill. I think we need to be honest

[Matt Lewis]

with ourselves about how important immigration is for our economy, for agriculture, for guest workers and other laborers, and for those who are already here now that are

[Astead Herndon]

making contributions towards our future. Donald Trump fundamentally changed the Republican positioning on some of those issues. Like if we think about the larger lane of Republicans that that version of Rubio represented, is there a version of Republicans that in the kind of looking forward that you think get back to that kind of, of openness to a pathway to citizenship or a non Stephen Miller version of immigration reform?

[Matt Lewis]

Not for a long time. Even people like Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry was even attacked in the 2012 race for being too pro immigration. People like Michele Bachman and even Mitt Romney, believe it or not, would attack Newt Gingrich and Rick Perry for being for amnesty. But people forget how close Marco was to making this happen. In fact, there was a point where like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity were basically saying, I guess we need to do this now, we need to do immigration reform. I think you control the border first.

[Astead Herndon]

You create a pathway for those people that are here.

[Matt Lewis]

You don't say you gotta go home. And that is in a position that I've evolved on. And the grassroots rebelled. You do not wanna touch that rail. And so I do not think we will be seeing any, anybody trying that again for a long, long time in the Republican Party.

[Astead Herndon]

One thing that is clear is Marco Rubio's influence policy wise in this second term of Donald Trump. But this also feels like a term that is defined more by the scope of their policy ambitions, rather than the kind of guardrails that may have been in place for the first term of Trump's administration. For the Rubio fans, does he get credit for adult in the room or should he be blamed because there seems to be fewer adults in the room?

[Matt Lewis]

This is the real big question right about him right now. You know, I think you could argue that just being affiliated with Trump should be a disqualified. That says something about your character. That is, it is qualified. That's one argument. I think there's another argument that says we want him on that wall, we need him on that wall. Like that Rubio is A, A, able to sort of mitigate some of the bad things that might otherwise happen. And then B, he's staying in the game and possibly could emerge as, you know, the next Republican president. And to me, there's a lot of worse possibilities. We could get Candace Owens in there. I mean, that's not 100% implausible. And here's the other thing too. I know there's some people out there who'll be saying like a pox on all their houses. Here's the thing. Once you become the nominee of a political party, you've got a chance to become president. So even if you're a Democrat listening or a progressive and you hate all the Republicans, you still probably should have some rooting interest in the least bad option being the nominee. Because it almost is a jump ball. All you have to do is look at recent history and Donald Trump in 2016.

[Astead Herndon]

When you think about the broader Republican electorate, obviously the never Trump wing has had frankly a math problem that the majority of Republicans have supported or at least followed along with Donald Trump and his chosen candidates. What is your level of confidence that enough non Trump Republican votes still exist? Enough non America First Republican votes still exist?

[Matt Lewis]

So I think you're entirely right. I don't think that the Never Trumpers constitute a large enough segment of the electorate to matter much. I do think, though, he can cobble together, as long as he stays in Trump's good graces, a large enough coalition that he could win.

[Astead Herndon]

Well, let me just ask about Vance also. I guess this is the same question a different way. What does Rubio have over J.D. vance? What it does, the kind of America first of J.D. vance that does not appeal to you.

[Matt Lewis]

J.D. vance has been all over the map. And I think J.D. vance comes across as what the kids today call cringe. I love Wisconsin, or as you guys say, Wisconsin love Wisconsin. It's like Ron DeSantis had the same problem. But I think Marco Rubio has the eloquence and I think he's gotten better. I mean, think of it as this way. Rubio has been through the wringer, okay? And I think he's grown and matured and he's got experience, he's got knowledge. J.D. vance, actually, and I know he's written a best selling book, to be sure, but JD Vance is a guy who barely got elected in Ohio. He underperformed the Republican vote in Ohio, and then he gets sort of pulled, plucked to be the running mate of Trump. Because I don't know if you remember this part. Apparently my old boss, Tucker Carlson warned Donald Trump that if Trump were to pick Rubio as his running mate, that Trump may be assassinated because of that. Because I don't know if the deep state or whoever would want Rubio to be elevated.

[Astead Herndon]

I guess I wanted to ask, though, about the kind of establishment candidates in general, because Donald Trump writes this as pitching himself as outsider. Broadly, being an outsider is fine. Embrace the label. Because it's the outsiders who change the world and who make a real and lasting difference. Isn't that something that seems like it could consume Vance and Rubio? Like is the distinction we should be talking about, not these two people in the administration, but basically whether the Republican grassroots might once again pull something out of the Tucker Carlsons of the folks who are kind of running in a full outsider game.

[Matt Lewis]

It could totally happen. It absolutely could. I mean, look, we have lived through what happened with Trump where again, this reality TV star that frankly we all thought initially was kind of a joke. It could happen. And look, I think my old boss, Tucker Carlson is very smart. It's not crazy. I think also we can't Forget Donald Trump Jr. Ivanka Trump. I know this sounds insane, but it is not entirely implausible.

[Astead Herndon]

You can read Matt Lewis at Notice that's N O t u s this episode of Today Explained was produced by Avishai Artsy, edited by Aminah Al Saadi, Fact Checked by Gabriel Donatov and engineered by Patrick Boyd and David Tadishore. I'm Estet Herndon and you can catch me on Saturdays hosting America. And actually, for an upcoming episode, we want to hear from you. How old is too old to be an elected official or to run for office? Send us a voicemail at 844-453-4448. That's 844-453-4448 with your answer and also give us your name, age and where you live. This week on the show, I'll be talking to Michigan Democratic candidate Abdul El Sayed. Check it out here or on YouTube.

[Matt Lewis]

Support for this show comes from Saint

[Maggie Haberman]

Germain Elderflower Liqueur Nothing says summer like a sunny backyard hang. Think light colored linens everywhere and an easy conversation on your lips, your favorite hors d' oeuvre in one hand and the bright, refreshing taste of a Saint Germain spritz in the other. Those are the details that stick with us. Us and the Saint Germain Spritz. An elevated take on the Hugo Spritz is the simplest part. Just mix sparkling water, wine and St. Germain for your go to summer cocktail. Visit st.germainlacor.com to shop and explore recipes. Enjoy responsibly.

[Astead Herndon]

I'm Neil Apitel, editor in chief of the Verge and Decoder is my show

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about big ideas and other problems.

[Astead Herndon]

Today we've got the first of a

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two part series on the systems that run the world. I'm talking with Bart Butler, the CTO

[Astead Herndon]

of Proton, a company that makes private and secure productivity software. It's impossible to create a backdoor that

[Matt Lewis]

can only be used by the good guys.

[Maggie Haberman]

No company is going to go to jail for you.

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Often the response is, well, if you

[Astead Herndon]

change the legal foundation here, we will leave.

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Yeah, how real is that?

[Matt Lewis]

It's dead serious. With all due respect to Swiss authorities and everybody else, I think it would be suicidal to continue down this path.

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Subscribe wherever you get your podcast. This series is presented by Comcast Business.