Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – “A test of Trump's coalition”

Date: October 22, 2025
Hosts: Myles Bryan (guest host), Christian Paz (Vox Politics Correspondent)
Episode Theme:
How New Jersey’s governor’s race serves as a bellwether for Trump’s new coalition of voters—especially Latino voters—and what the outcome signals for the Democratic and Republican parties, the midterms, and the future of American electoral politics.

Main Theme and Purpose

This episode investigates whether the rightward shift of Latino and working-class voters toward Trump in 2024 was a permanent realignment or a momentary phenomenon. Through field reporting on the razor-tight New Jersey gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Cittarelli, hosts explore what motivates these voters, what each party is doing to win them back or keep them, and what broader lessons the race might hold for America in the Trump 2.0 era.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Stakes: Why New Jersey Matters

• Christian Paz introduces NJ’s gubernatorial race as a “bellwether” for national politics (03:01).
  • Democrat Mikie Sherrill: moderate, 2018 “blue wave” congresswoman, facing tepid support among Black and Latino voters.
  • Republican Jack Cittarelli: strong, familiar candidate who nearly won last cycle.

2. Trump’s New Coalition: Realignment or Blip?

• Question posed: Are defecting Latino voters “Republicans now or are they just Trump voters?” (04:00).
• Myles: Voters excited by Trump aren’t necessarily plugged into down-ballot or non-Trump GOP races (04:32).

3. On-the-Ground Reporting: Latino Voter Attitudes

• Democrats admit to prior failings in engaging grassroots organizations and vow deeper outreach (06:44).
  • Notable Quote: “We can no longer take people for granted. We gotta go back to the grassroots organizations… Maybe we forgot those grassroots organizations that are the movers and the shakers.”
    — Sen. Nilsa Cruz Perez, (06:44)
• Mikie Sherrill stresses affordability as her main pitch.
  • Notable Quote: “I think the reason that we're going to see Latinos come home really in this one is because of those costs, because Trump is raising costs on everyone.” — Sherrill, (07:50)
• Both parties' campaigns are focusing heavily on pocketbook issues, especially the cost of living.

4. Republican Strategy: Localizing, Not Nationalizing

• Cittarelli’s rally is notable for its diversity and focus on local, economic issues (plastic bag ban, taxes), not Trump himself.
  • He draws cultural parallels between Latinos and his own immigrant family, aiming to treat working-class communities similarly (09:58).
  • Notable Quote: “I'm not telling you how to heat your home… In the supermarket, if you'd like, you can have back your plastic bags.” — Jack Cittarelli, (09:58)
• Cittarelli puts distance between Trump’s rhetoric and his own positions on immigration.

5. Latino Voters: Neither Party is Home

• Many Latino Trump-voters express regret or ambivalence but are not wholly sold on the Democrats (13:11).
• Real anxieties over aggressive immigration enforcement under Trump’s second term impact potential voting decisions more than campaign promises (13:20).
  • Notable Quote: “[She] said, like, taking people away from their families… I guess I would be okay with prices remaining the same if it meant like, not being so, like, physically aggressive with people and giving them a chance to defend themselves.” — Voter “Gisele” via Myles Bryan, (13:20)
• Voters disengaged, uncertain who to support; neither party animates them as in past years (14:11).

6. National Context: Weakening Republican Coalition

• Myles Bryan: Trump is beginning to lose support, especially among younger voters and Hispanics/Latinos, mostly due to economic issues, not immigration (18:41).
  • Notable Quote: “If you were supporting Trump for economic reasons, the main reason you'd be turned off from him would be over what he's done on the economy or has not done... economic issues were always the top concern for this cohort.”
    — Myles Bryan, (20:26)
• Christian: Despite aggressive Trump-era immigration enforcement (“viral videos” of ICE arrests, etc.), it hasn’t moved the needle much, since economics still dominates (20:17–21:16).

7. Democratic Strategy: Old Playbook, New Concerns

• 2018-style moderates like Sherrill and Spanberger (running in VA) have struggled to spark enthusiasm—even as they remain viable candidates (21:34).
• Chris and Myles discuss the diminishing returns of an “anti-Trump/defender of democracy” message that animated the 2018 blue wave (22:49).
  • Notable Quote: “And it seems like it’s had diminishing returns over the years. That’s where we see a little bit of a gulf between where the national Democrats are and maybe what their most energized base voters want...” — Myles Bryan, (23:16)
• The contrast: new “energy” and excitement around outsider, leftier, social-media-savvy Democratic candidates (e.g., Zoran Mamdani, Graham Platner) (24:40).

8. Three Possible Narratives for the Midterms: What the NJ Outcome Will Signal

• Sherrill wins big: Validates 2018 moderate Democratic approach; Trump’s coalition weak for down-ballot GOP (25:37).
• Sherrill wins narrowly: Suggests competitive, high-stakes national midterms; moderate Dems not firing up base (25:37).
• Cittarelli wins: Trump’s coalition can succeed for “generic” Republicans; Democrats may face further internal feuding over party direction (26:27).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “We can no longer take people for granted. We gotta go back to the grassroots organizations.” — Sen. Nilsa Cruz Perez (06:44)
• “I think the reason that we're going to see Latinos come home really in this one is because of those costs, because Trump is raising costs on everyone.” — Mikie Sherrill (07:50)
• “I'm not telling you how to heat your home. I'm not telling you what appliances you have to buy. There'll be no wind farms off our Jersey shore. And in the supermarket, if you'd like, you can have back your plastic bags.” — Jack Cittarelli (09:58)
• “Hearing people…taking people away from their families… I guess I would be okay with prices remaining the same if it meant not being so, like, physically aggressive with people and giving them a chance to defend themselves.” — Voter “Gisele” (13:20)
• “It seems like it's had diminishing returns over the years. That's where we see a little bit of a gulf between where the national Democrats are and maybe what their most energized base voters want…” — Myles Bryan (23:16)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:01 – Introduction to NJ gubernatorial race and candidates
• 04:00–04:32 – The Trump coalition: realignment or temporary?
• 06:44–07:22 – Nilsa Cruz Perez on Dems’ tactical shift to grassroots
• 07:50–08:49 – Mikie Sherrill’s message to Latino voters
• 09:26–10:33 – Cittarelli’s campaign event: new GOP focus, voter pitching
• 13:11–13:41 – “Gisele” and the real fear of aggressive Trump immigration policy
• 14:11 – Analysts’ takeaway: Latino voters unhappy but uncommitted
• 18:41–20:26 – National polling: Trump softens with new coalition, economics dominates
• 21:55–24:40 – Democratic playbook; old vs. new energy, and party tensions
• 25:37–26:58 – Three possible midterm narratives depending on NJ outcome

Overall Tone

The conversation is candid, immersive, and lightly irreverent (“Like the stache—adult film adult”). There’s a sense of worn optimism and skepticism: the hosts find neither party especially excites or energizes these critical swing voters, and much remains “up in the air.” Their field trip tone is conversational, with occasional dry humor offsetting the seriousness of disenfranchised or anxious voters.

Closing Takeaways

• Both parties face challenges: Democrats need to re-engage and energize disaffected voters without taking them for granted; Republicans experiment with a more local, kitchen-table approach to appeal to diverse, working-class voters.
• The outcome in New Jersey will set a narrative for the midterms: will the old Democratic playbook be enough, or does the new Republican coalition (even without Trump on the ballot) prevail?
• The voting behavior of Latinos and other working-class groups remains unsettled; economic pain still trumps other issues, and no party has fully earned their loyalty.

For listeners pressed for time:

• Listen to 06:44–08:49 for grassroots Democratic outreach and Latinos’ concerns.
• Listen to 09:26–10:33 for how Republicans are reframing their appeal.
• Catch 13:11–13:41 for a real voter’s poignant anxiety about Trump-era deportations.
• 21:55–24:40 for reflections on national Democratic strategy and its limits.
• 25:37–end for election night “what it all means” scenarios.