
AI is in everything these days. But should it be in our nuclear arsenal?
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Noel King
To watch the new Kathryn Bigelow movie A House of Dynamite on Netflix is to immediately start freaking out about a nuclear war.
Josh Keating
We've already lost one American city today.
Tony Capaccio
How many more do you want to rescue? What kind of fucking question is that?
Noel King
Some enemy. It could be Russia. It could be North Korea. Launches a nuclear warhead at Chicago from the Pacific Ocean. It's okay. The U.S. has interceptors. They blast up into the air and they knock the nukes out. That is actually true in real life. That's our nuclear defense system. Except in the movie the Interceptors Fail. Except it's just a movie. Except. A few days before it came out on Netflix, the Pentagon started freaking out and talking internally about how to calm people down. Coming up on Today Explain from AI To Golden Dome to Netflix's new hit why everybody is suddenly talking about nuclear war. Support for Today explained comes from BetterHelp. BetterHelp says it's winter, and winter is often depressing. Instead of getting depressed, BetterHelp wants to encourage you to reach out to someone. Perhaps get coffee with an old friend, perhaps write a letter to a family member. Perhaps connect with a licensed therapist using BetterHelp this month. Don't wait to reach out, says BetterHelp. Whether you're checking in on a friend or reaching out to a therapist yourself, BetterHelp makes it easier to take that first step, says BetterHelp. You can get 10% off your first month@betterhelp.com explained. That's betterhelp.com explained. Support for today Explained comes from Nuremberg, a film from Sony Pictures Classics. In the aftermath of World War II, as the world confronts the horrors of the Holocaust, a US army psychiatrist is tasked with evaluating Hermann Guring. Oh, God. Hitler's second in command. Meanwhile, the chief prosecutor leads the Allies in forming an unprecedented international tribunal for. For the trial of the century. Huh? As Dr. Kelly delves deeper into Guring's psyche, a tense psychological duel unfolds. Nuremberg, starring Russell Crowe, Rami Malek, Leo Woodall, and Michael Shannon, starts Friday, only in theaters. What's happening?
Josh Keating
They're airing another episode of Today explained.
Noel King
What about the 1,766 other episodes?
Josh Keating
They're already here.
Tony Capaccio
Oh, my God.
Noel King
Oh, my God. I'm Noel King with Tony Capaccio. Tony covers the Pentagon for Bloomberg News. He's been covering defense for almost 40 years. So recently, Tony found out that in the days before A House of Dynamite dropped on Netflix, the US Pentagon, of all people, started circulating a highly unusual response to the movie.
Tony Capaccio
So on October 16th, the Missile Defense Agency issued an internal memo. Not publicly releasable, it said, underlined to give a heads up to leaders that this movie was coming out broadly and if there are questions about it. This is the current state of the U.S. ground based missile defense program.
Josh Keating
The goal is to ensure leadership has situational awareness and is not surprised by the topic which may come up in conversations or meetings.
Tony Capaccio
It was not a slash and burn memo trashing the movie. In total, it made points pretty clinically and like dryly that the movie's not accurate in terms of its portrayal of the success of the missile defense system. That's kind of the bottom line. And they gave four or five pages of technical insight into why they thought it was inaccurate.
Josh Keating
The fictional interceptors in the movie miss their target. And we understand this is intended to be a compelling part of the drama, intended for the entertainment of the audience. But results from real world testing tell a vastly different story.
Tony Capaccio
If you look at the last decade with improved warheads, our success rate is 100%. Literally. That is accurate. The track record on this thing over the last four tests, you know, indicates 100%. They did intercept the missile. It does say this. The 5050 chance of intercepting narrative is based on our earliest prototype versions of the GBI system when we operated with only a few early warning radars that were already decades old and a rudimentary command and control systems. We have since upgraded one of those early warning raiders in California and added other upgraded early warning radars to the missile defense system. Plus we also have added a sea based radar in the Pacific capable of discriminating threat objects with great precision. End quote. That's what they're laying out. What they have not done a good job of lately is putting the stuff out in public.
Noel King
The movie describes the process of interception chillingly as trying to hit a bullet with a bullet.
Josh Keating
Once the kill vehicle separates, our mid course intercept system has a success rate of 61%.
Tony Capaccio
So it's a fucking coin toss, but.
Noel King
That'S what $50 billion buys us.
Josh Keating
We are talking about hitting a bullet.
Noel King
With a bullet, which sounds like this'll work if you're damn lucky. Is that about the size of it?
Tony Capaccio
You're gonna love this. Inside the memo, there's actually a clinical description of hitting a bullet with a bullet. But here's what I'm going to read this. Hitting a bullet with a bullet in terms of closing speeds is significantly less than hitting a missile with a missile. The highest velocity rifle rounds travel at 4,500ft per second, giving closing velocity of two bullets, around 2.75 kilometers, kilometers per second. Missiles in space will have three to four times higher closing velocities. So I guess in layman's language, hitting a bullet with a bullet is not as difficult as hitting a missile with a missile.
Noel King
Okay. Hitting a bullet with a bullet is not as difficult as hitting a missile with a missile. And the whole point is we're supposed to be terrified by the idea that, like, hitting a bullet with a bullet is really hard. So question then to you, Tony, is we've talked on the show before about how President Trump would like to build a Golden Dome missile defense system.
Tony Capaccio
Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space.
Noel King
Where does something like that fit into this conversation about whether or not our systems that handle the nuclear threat are operating properly?
Tony Capaccio
So if I knew nothing about missile defense, and I'm a layer of viewer of this movie, and I know a little bit about what Golden Dome is supposed to be because the President says so, I would scratch my head and say, well, if this limited defense system didn't work against one missile, maybe they got a point. Maybe it should be a broader system to protect parts of the United States. Maybe I should wait and see what they disclosed. That's a logical way to look at this.
Noel King
That is what I thought truthfully last night as I was watching this movie. Okay, maybe we need Golden Dope.
Tony Capaccio
The movie gives one pause in terms of, well, maybe he's got a point. The problem with his point is that he said nothing about it beyond that it's going to be $175 billion and it should be deployed later. By the end of his administration, the Pentagon said virtually squat about the configuration of it, where this $175 billion estimate came from, and the technical difficulties involved. So we're in a wait and see mode on Golden Dome. But the movie does raise a question. If this limited system doesn't work, do we really need a broader system?
Noel King
How rare is it for the Pentagon to sort of have a response to something that's in theaters now?
Tony Capaccio
We're talking incredibly rare. In 1982, the Pentagon was asked by ABC to vet their script for the famous Day After. This is a movie of a nuclear holocaust in Kansas hit by a. We're not sure where the missile came from, but a nuclear holocaust the day after a nuclear bomb. Roger.
Josh Keating
We've got 32 targets in track and 10 impacting points.
Tony Capaccio
We want to Confirm.
Noel King
Is this an exercise? Roger. Copy.
Josh Keating
This is not an.
Tony Capaccio
The Pentagon reviewed the film. They didn't want to give aid to the filmmaker, ABC in the form of National Guard or military equipment because they felt the script implied that NATO started World War Three. But. And I saw some of the documents I wrote about it at the time, they actually complemented some of the film's depiction of the aftermath. We're talking, though rarely does the Pentagon come out and blast a movie. They support a lot of films. They supported Mission Impossible, the last one, the last two mission impossibles with V22 Ospreys, with the use of the George Bush carrier. Remember in the trailer when the Secretary of Defense said you gave him an aircraft carrier? That was actually true. They gave him the George Bush carrier for Tom Cruise and the rest of the film cast. I need you to trust me one last time. So they do routinely support films. It becomes news when they don't. Platoon, a famous one from like 25 years ago was one of them. They didn't support that and they didn't support Zero Dark Thirty, the famous movie that Kathryn Bigelow made about the killing of Osama bin Laden by Seal Team 6.
Noel King
Bin Laden is there and you're going to kill him for me.
Tony Capaccio
Zero Dark Thirty was kind of the code name for when the operation would take place in Pakistan, Abbottabad, Pakistan. A number of organizations were. And members of Congress were a little peeved that the Pentagon helped them or even helped vet their script. This is at a time when Secretary Robert Gates was telling the rest of the military, keep your mouth shut about the bin Laden raid.
Noel King
So, Tony, how might you interpret what happened here? Why did the Pentagon respond? Why did the Pentagon talk about this at all?
Tony Capaccio
I gotta think they are concerned that the Golden Dome will be trashed because of this. There's a line in here that says.
Noel King
Was this film made in response to the planned Golden Dome project?
Tony Capaccio
And it says, please direct all questions.
Josh Keating
Related to Golden Dome to the Office.
Tony Capaccio
Of the Secretary of War, which there was some sensitivity. This wasn't emphasized throughout, but I think part of it was. It showed a miss and they were worried about an erosion probably of US confidence in the public about the system that nobody's really thinking about at the moment. But to be proactive in terms of if they are asked about the subject.
Noel King
Bloomberg's Tony Capaccio. Coming up. The prospect of nuclear war was scary enough. It always has been. But now we are actively adding AI to our nuclear infrastructure. How freaked out should we be? Support for Today explained comes from DeleteMe delete me says they make it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone, including you, vulnerable. How does it work? You can sign up and provide Delete Me with exactly the information you want deleted. Their experts take it from there. It's not just a one time thing. Delete Me can constantly monitor and remove personal information you don't want on the Internet. Here's Claire White Delete Me has put.
Tony Capaccio
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Tony Capaccio
You listen to this podcast and the guy said this is Today Explained.
Josh Keating
I'm Josh Keating. I'm a senior correspondent at Vox and for the last few months I've been working on a fellowship where I'm writing a series of articles on the intersection of AI and and nuclear weapons.
Noel King
Human beings have had fears around AI and nuclear weapons for as long as we've had AI I would think. And you see them quite vividly sometimes in movies.
Josh Keating
The system goes online on August 4, 1997. Human decisions are removed from strategic defense. Skynet begins to learn at a geometric rate. It becomes self aware at 2:14am Eastern Time. August 29th.
Noel King
General, what you see on these screens up here is a fantasy, a computer enhanced hallucination. Those blips are not real missiles. They're phantoms. Most recently there's a part in A House of Dynamite where they're trying to figure out what the hell happened and whether AI is involved. The Chinese navy has been experimenting with AI assisted launch systems. So this could be a technical mishap. Are these movies with these fears onto something?
Josh Keating
Well, I mean I think the interesting thing about movies when it comes to nuclear war is this a kind of war that's never been fought. We don't have real world examples of it. There are no sort of veterans of nuclear wars other than, you know, the two bombs we dropped on Japan, which is a very different scenario. And so I think like that movies have always played A kind of outsized role in debates over nuclear weapons. You can go back to the 60s when you know that Strategic Air Command actually like produced its own rebuttal to Dr. Strangelove and fail Safe in movies like that. You yourself have flown profile missions over and over again.
Noel King
But there is one area in which you've had little or no actual experience nuclear effects.
Josh Keating
In the 80s, the TV movie the Day after was kind of a galvanizing force for the nuclear freeze movement. And President Reagan apparently was like very disturbed when he watched it, and it influenced his thinking on arms control with the Soviet Union. And in the specific topic I'm looking at, which is AI and nuclear weapons, I think there's, there's been a surprising number of movies that like, have that as the plot, you know, and it comes up a lot in the policy debates over this. I mean, I've had people who are advocates for integrating AI into the nuclear command system saying, look, this isn't going to be Skynet. And they're referring to the, you know, a computer system that takes over in the Terminator movies. And there's actually General Anthony Cotton, who's the current commander of Strategic Command, the branch of the military responsible for the nuclear weapons. He also advocates, you know, greater use of AI tools. But, you know, he referred to the 1983 movie War Games, where there's a computer system called Whopper that, you know, accidentally almost starts a nuclear war. And he said, look, you know, we're going to have more AI, but there's not going to be a Whopper in Strategic Command. So where I think it falls a little short is the, the fear tends to be that a super intelligent AI is going to take over our nuclear weapons and use it to wipe us out. You know, for now, that's a theoretical concern. What I think is the more real concern is that as AI gets into more and more parts of the command and control system, like do the human beings in charge of the decisions to make nuclear weapons really understand how the AIs are working and how is it going to affect the way they make these decisions? Which could be, you know, not exaggerating to say some of the most important decisions ever made in human history.
Noel King
Josh, answer that question. Do the human beings working on nukes understand the AI?
Josh Keating
We don't know exactly where AI is in the nuclear enterprise. You know, computers have been part of this, the beginning. I mean, some of the first digital computers ever developed were used during the building of the atomic bomb in the Manhattan Project. But I think people will Be surprised to know how low tech the nuclear command and control system really was. Up until 2019, they were using floppy disks for their communication systems. I'm not even talking about the little plastic ones that look like your save icon on Windows. I mean the old 80s bendy ones, like they were using those in their command and control system. So, you know, there's reasons for that, because they don't. They want these systems to be secure from outside cyber interference. So they don't want everything like hooked up to the cloud for very obvious reasons. But, you know, as you know, there's this ongoing multibillion dollar nuclear modernization process underway. A big part of that is updating these systems. And Multiple commanders of StratCom, including a couple I talked to, said they think AI should be part of this. What they all say is AI should not be in charge of making the decision as to whether we launch nuclear weapons. They think that AI can just analyze massive amounts of information and do it much faster than people can. And if you've seen House of Dynamite, one thing that movie shows really well is how quickly the president and senior advisors are going to have to make some absolutely extraordinary, difficult decisions. And so AI can help provide options and help take the decisions the humans don't have to make out of their hands and leave humans in charge of making the really important ones.
Noel King
Okay, so that brings us to a thing that makes everybody nervous, which is AI being integrated, more integrated. You told us about some of the pros. And truthfully, an indecisive president or a president that has to make a decision real fast being helped by something. That's a very good point. What are the big arguments against getting AI and nukes in bed together?
Josh Keating
Well, I mean, part of it is like even the best AI models that we have available today are still prone to error. You know, another worry is that there could be outside interference with these systems. It could be hacking or a cyber attack, or, you know, government, foreign governments could come up with ways to sort of seed inaccurate information into the model. There has been reporting that, you know, Russian propaganda networks are actively trying to seed disinformation into the training data used by Western consumer AI chatbots like, and, you know, another is just like how people interact with these systems. I mean, there is a phenomenon that, you know, a lot of researchers pointed out called automation bias, which is just that people tend to trust to a remarkable extent the information that automated systems, the computer systems are giving them. There are abundant examples from history of times when technology has actually led to near nuclear disasters. And it's been humans who've stepped in to, you know, prevent escalation. And so there was a case in 1979 when Spigniew Brzezinski, the US national security advisor, was actually woken up by a phone call in the middle of the night informing him that hundreds of missiles had just been launched from Soviet submarines off the coast of Oregon. And, you know, just before he was about to call Jimmy Carter, the president at the time, to wake him up and tell him America was under attack, there was another call that had been a false alarm. For six minutes this morning, the signals.
Tony Capaccio
From the North American Air Defense Command Command headquarters indicated a nuclear attack against the United States. It was a false alarm. The cause, reported this evening, a computer error.
Josh Keating
A few years later, there was a very famous case in the Soviet Union. There was a colonel named Stanislav Petrov who was working in. In their sort of missile detection infrastructure, who was informed by the computer system that there had been a U.S. nuclear launch. And, you know, under the protocols, he was supposed to then inform his superiors who might have ordered immediate retaliation as their doctrine would have required them to. But it turned out the system had misinterpreted sunlight reflecting off clouds as a missile launch. And so that was a case where it's very good that Stanislav Fetrov took the decision to wait a few minutes and confirm that before he called his superiors.
Noel King
Yeah, it sounds. I mean, I'm listening through to those examples, and the thing I might take away, if I'm thinking about it really simplistically is that human beings pull us back from the brink when technology screws up.
Josh Keating
It's true. And I think there's some really interesting recent tests on AI models given sort of military crisis scenarios, and they actually tend to be more hawkish than human decision makers are. And we don't know exactly why that is. I mean, one thing I think about is that, like, if we look at why we haven't fought a nuclear war, why, you know, 80 years after Hiroshima we haven't. Nobody's dropped another atomic bomb, why there's never been a nuclear exchange on the battlefield. I think part of it is just like, how terrifying it is how, like, humans understand the destructive potential of these weapons and what this escalation can lead to, that, you know, that there are certain steps that may have unintended consequences and fear is a big part of it. And so, you know, from. From my perspective, I think we want to make sure that there's fear built into the system, that that intelligences Entities that are capable of being absolutely freaked out by the destructive potential of nuclear weapons are the ones who are making the key decisions on whether to use them.
Noel King
It does sound like, you know, watching a house of dynamite, you can, as I did last night, vividly think perhaps we should get all of the AI out of this entirely. Just like, just like, let's not have any mistakes, let's have any accidents. It sounds like what you're saying is we may have reached a point at which we are not going back in time. AI is a part of nuclear infrastructure for us, for other nations, and it is likely to be that way.
Josh Keating
Well, it's interesting. One thing, one sort of advocate for more automation told me he was like, if you don't think humans can build a trustworthy AI, then humans have no business with nuclear weapons. And you know, I think he's kind of right. Like, like, but, but the thing is, like, I think that that's, that's a statement that like, people who think we should eliminate all nuclear weapons entirely would also agree with. Like, it's, you know, I think I may have got into this worried that like, I was going to take over and take over nuclear weapons. What I realized, like, maybe, but like, right now I'm worried enough about, like, what people are going to do with nuclear weapons and, and the risk that, you know, it's not that AI is going to kill people with nuclear weapons, it's that AI might make it more likely that people kill each other with nuclear weapons. And so, you know, to, to a degree, like the AI is the least of our worries. Like, like the, the real thing we should be concerned about is that like, we have these weapons at all. And that as I think the movie shows well, just like how absurd the scenario in which we'd have to decide whether or not to use them really is.
Noel King
Josh Keating. You can find his reporting@vox.com Josh's reporting on this one was supported by the Outrider foundation and journalism funding partners. Kelly Wessinger produced today's episode. Jolie Meyers edited Laura Bullard and Abishai Artsy Check the facts. And Patrick Boyd and Adrian Lilly engineered the box membership sale, you should know is still ongoing. Ad free podcast folks. Other perks too. Good on you if you've taken advantage of the sale. And thank you to the person who said they signed up for the Today Explained hosts. Our boss reads those messages so we appreciate it. Vox.com members to take advantage of the sale. I'm Noel King. It's Today Explained.
Tony Capaccio
Sam.
Date: November 3, 2025
Host: Noel King
Guests: Tony Capaccio (Pentagon reporter, Bloomberg News), Josh Keating (Senior Correspondent, Vox)
This compelling episode explores why nuclear anxiety is back in the cultural spotlight, driven in part by Kathryn Bigelow’s new Netflix film A House of Dynamite, and recent developments in U.S. missile defense strategy. Hosts Noel King and guests Tony Capaccio and Josh Keating unravel how a single movie set off Pentagon alarm bells, and, even more critically, how the rise of AI in nuclear command is reshaping both policy and public fear. Through technical breakdowns, historical anecdotes, and candid analysis, the episode considers how movies, government secrecy, and emerging tech all contribute to society’s nuclear nightmares.
“If you look at the last decade with improved warheads, our success rate is 100%. Literally. That is accurate.” — Tony Capaccio (03:55)
“Hitting a bullet with a bullet is not as difficult as hitting a missile with a missile.” — Tony Capaccio (06:05)
“If this limited defense system didn’t work against one missile, maybe they got a point… Maybe it should be a broader system to protect parts of the United States.” (06:45)
On the Pentagon’s response to movies:
“We're talking incredibly rare... rarely does the Pentagon come out and blast a movie. They support a lot of films. It becomes news when they don’t.”
— Tony Capaccio (08:09)
On U.S. missile defense hype vs. reality:
“Once the kill vehicle separates, our mid course intercept system has a success rate of 61%.”
— Josh Keating (05:03)
“So it's a fucking coin toss, but…”
— Tony Capaccio (05:11)
On AI’s potential downsides:
“Even the best AI models… are still prone to error.”
— Josh Keating (21:28)
“There are abundant examples from history of times when technology has actually led to near nuclear disasters. And it's been humans who've stepped in to, you know, prevent escalation.”
— Josh Keating (22:53)
On the human factor:
“I think part of it is just like, how terrifying it is… humans understand the destructive potential of these weapons... fear is a big part of it. So, from my perspective, I think we want to make sure that there's fear built into the system.”
— Josh Keating (24:13)
On the inescapability of nuclear AI:
“It sounds like what you’re saying is we may have reached a point at which we are not going back in time. AI is a part of nuclear infrastructure for us, for other nations, and it is likely to be that way.”
— Noel King (25:20)
The episode thoughtfully interrogates our modern nuclear anxiety, showing how pop culture and Pentagon policy collide, just as AI’s role in life-or-death nuclear decisions becomes more entrenched. The chilling conclusion: while we may overstate fears of runaway robots, the real threat remains human—whether it’s faltering trust in missile defenses, poorly understood AI, or a disastrous, panicked decision at the world’s worst moment.
As Josh Keating reflects:
“The real thing we should be concerned about is that, like, we have these weapons at all.” (26:30)
Summary compiled for listeners and non-listeners alike, retaining the original insight, skepticism, and cautious humor of the hosts and guests.