
Vox's Josh Keating and author Vali Nasr explain what bombing Iran won’t accomplish.
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Sean Ramis
This weekend, the current President of the United States did something no former president of the United States has ever done. He bombed Iran.
Josh Keating
And I want to just thank everybody and in particular, God, for a lot.
Sean Ramis
Of people it was giving Timu George W. Bush, but the Vice President had a counter argument. But the difference is that back then we had dumb presidents and now we have a president who actually knows how to accomplish America's national security objectives. But are these America's national security objectives? Because most Americans aren't interested in bombing Iran and certainly most Americans don't want a war with Iran. But it sounds like the President might.
Tulsi Gabbard
Truth Social it's not politically correct to.
Sean Ramis
Use the term regime change, but if.
Tulsi Gabbard
The current Iranian regime is unable to make Iran great again, why wouldn't there be a regime change?
Sean Ramis
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Sean Ramis
Today explained Sean Ramis from here with Josh Keating from Vox. He's a senior correspondent covering foreign policy and national security. Josh, what did the President do this weekend?
Dan Kane
So on Saturday night US Time, the US Launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program.
Josh Keating
A short time ago, the US Military carried out massive precision strikes on the three key nuclear facilities in the Iranian regime, Fordeau, Natanz and Isfahan.
Dan Kane
This ended about a week of speculation about whether the US Would join the air campaign against Iran that Israel had launched. It was kind of a major about face for a president who very recently seemed very committed to a diplomatic path for dealing with Iran's nuclear program.
Sean Ramis
No US President has ever bombed Iran. Why did Trump go for it?
Dan Kane
It seems like what happened was a combination of factors One, Israel presented some new intelligence that they feel indicated that something had shifted with regards to Iran's ability to build a weapon. There's been reporting that basically the Israelis believe that Iranian scientists have sort of squirreled away some highly enriched uranium that international inspectors didn't know about and had begun discussions, you know, actually building a weapon on putting nuclear material on a missile. U.S. intelligence officials, it seems like, weren't buying that. Last March, Tulsi Gabbard, the Director of National Intelligence, said that Iran is not.
Tulsi Gabbard
Building a nuclear weapon. And Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.
Dan Kane
And US spies, for the most part, seem to be sticking with that. Trump says he doesn't believe that.
Tulsi Gabbard
What intelligence do you have that Iran is building a nuclear weapon? Your intelligence community and said they have no evidence that they are at this point.
Josh Keating
Well, then my intelligence community is wrong. Who in the intelligence community said that?
Tulsi Gabbard
Your Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard.
Josh Keating
She's wrong.
Dan Kane
He doesn't care what she said. And that he believes Iran was moving close to a bomb. Maybe he saw something that really convinced him. Maybe Israel's initial success in this air campaign, the degree to which they've been able to launch strikes at Iran almost without impunity, with very little in the way of Iranian defenses, and have been able to absorb the missile strikes that Iran has fired at Israel, maybe that convinced him that it was time to go. This is a president who likes to back a winner, and he may perceive that, you know, this war was going well and he wanted to be part of it.
Sean Ramis
He walked down that hallway that many presidents before him have walked down after doing stuff like this on Saturday night. This time, he was flanked by his vice president, his secretary of state, and the secretary of defense. What did he have to say to the nation?
Josh Keating
There's no military in the world that could have done what we did tonight. Not even close. There has never been a military that could do what took place just a little while ago.
Dan Kane
The speech seemed to indicate that this was a one off.
Josh Keating
Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally one off, obliterated.
Dan Kane
We're not exactly sure if that's true. The following day, Dan Kane, General Dan Kane, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that it's clear there was significant damage to all three, but we'd have to wait on final damage assessments. BDA is still pending, and it would be way too early for me to comment on what may or may not still Be there. He also said that there would be no more strikes unless Iran didn't. Well, he was a little vague about that, actually. The implication seems to be that if Iran retaliates against US Troops in the region, that there could be more strikes. But he seemed to suggest that this was a one off, that there weren't further military actions planned.
Sean Ramis
He didn't get congressional authorization to do this, in keeping with a decades long tradition. Now, who knew he was going to do this?
Dan Kane
Not very many people. Supposedly Congressional Republicans were given some advance warning.
Sean Ramis
Just Republicans?
Dan Kane
Just Republicans. Congressional Democrats were given very, very, very brief warning. The Israelis do seem to have been involved in some coordinating fashion.
Sean Ramis
So Israelis may have known more about this operation than congressional Democrats.
Dan Kane
Most likely they did, yeah.
Sean Ramis
Wow.
Dan Kane
It's worth noting, just a couple days earlier, Trump had said that he was going to wait two weeks to make a, you know, a lot of. I'll be honest, I wasn't sure if he would really go through with this. I mean, it.
Sean Ramis
He didn't even tell you?
Dan Kane
He didn't? No, he didn't. I was not on those signal chats.
Sean Ramis
As you mentioned, Trump's own Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard expressed skepticism that Iran had the capability to build a bomb. Here we have the President bombing nuclear facilities. Why is he at odds with his own intelligence staff?
Dan Kane
Well, that's something of a tradition as well. I mean, the lead up to the war in Iraq seems very recent to me, but I'm realizing I'm just getting old and that seems like a long time ago for other people. I mean, in that case, the administration pressured the intelligence community to come up with findings on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction program that would build a case for military action.
Tulsi Gabbard
Indeed, the facts and Iraq's behavior show that Saddam Hussein and his regime are concealing their efforts to produce more weapons of mass destruction.
Josh Keating
We have not found at this point actual weapons. Does not mean we've concluded there are no actual weapons.
Dan Kane
It means at this point in time.
Tulsi Gabbard
And it's a huge country with a.
Dan Kane
Lot to do, that we have not yet found weapons. This time we seem to be doing like a speed run of the lead up to Iraq. You know, they're rather than pressuring the intelligence community to come up with this, you know, favorable intelligence, Trump is simply saying he doesn't believe the intelligence assessments that were given to him, that he believes what the Israelis were saying. And rather than, you know, trying to build a case in Congress making a case to the U.N. as we saw in 2003, Trump simply kind of ignored those. So it's kind of like we're doing Iraq, but much faster. The obvious difference being that in this case, there really was a nuclear program.
Sean Ramis
You published a piece on Saturday night immediately after this happened, titled this Time It's Trump's War. You pointed out that Trump had overruled objections while shifting his position on taking military action against Iran. Why is he kind of going alone on this, do we know?
Dan Kane
I want to read something that he said in May in a speech he gave in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Just a quick quote. He said he was talking about the sort of legacy of the last few presidential administrations in the Middle East. Said in the end the so called.
Josh Keating
Nation builders direct farmer nations than they built. And the interventionalists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves. They told you how to do it, but they had no idea how to do it themselves.
Dan Kane
Now, I read this and I think it's a fair reading that this was sort of a castigation, a rejection of decades of US Attempts to remake the Middle east through military action. And you know, maybe this is just a one off, maybe it's just a strike on the nuclear program, but, you know, Israel clearly sees this as a potential regime change operation. And then on Sunday we saw Trump posting on Truth Social that, you know, it's not PC to talk about regime change, but if Iran can't, if the Iranian government can't make Iran great again, then maybe there should be regime change.
Sean Ramis
We've been hearing and reading that Trump doesn't have much of like a foreign policy ideology for, I don't know, like a decade now. But as much as he has one, it's America first. This is not that. The first person Trump thanked in his speech on Saturday night wasn't the troops, wasn't the pilots of these bombers. It was Benjamin Netanyahu. It's feeling a little Israel first out there right now. Is Trump diluting his brand, Josh?
Dan Kane
This is another major shift we've seen. I mean, Trump was basically giving Israel the cold shoulder in the Middle East. It was cutting deals with Hamas for hostages. It was of course engaged in these nuclear talks with Iran that Israel was not too happy about. They stopped bombing the Houthis, even though the Houthis continued lobbing ballistic missiles at Israel. So it didn't seem like either protecting Israel from its enemies regionally or, you know, appearing to be in lockstep with, you know, Israeli foreign policy in the Middle east was really that much of a priority. For this administration. This is a major shift. I mean, and I don't really have a good explanation for it other than this is a president who's shown more than once he's capable of shifting on a dime in foreign policy. I mean, he can go from calling for fire and fury into North Korea to calling Kim Jong Un his best friend. So there were a lot of people on the so called America first right, as well as some on the left who hoped that this would be a president who would show more restraint in the use of military force, who maybe wouldn't be as lockstep aligned with Israel in the Middle East. The theories about where Trump's foreign policy was headed or who was calling the shots a few weeks ago haven't held up very well. And I think, you know, observing this president over the last decade or so, that's something we should come to expect.
Sean Ramis
The view from Iran when we return on TODAY Explained.
Dan Kane
Foreign.
Tulsi Gabbard
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Sean Ramis
Professor Vali Nasser just published a book on Iran's grand strategy. It's called Iran's Grand A Political History. We asked him how long they've been trying to build a bomb.
Josh Keating
Well, it hasn't been developing a nuclear weapon. It has been developing a nuclear program. It actually started before the revolution under the Shah. At that point in time, the shah saw it as a mark of Iran having arrived as a great power, but also he saw industrial uses for it. He wanted to develop and modernize Iran. He needed electricity, and he thought that a nuclear industry was critical for that. And I think the Islamic Republic began to think about a nuclear program when they got hit by Saddam Hussein during the Iran Iraq war with chemical weapons. And the international community didn't do anything. According to its own declarations, Iraq used more than 101,000 chemical bombs and munitions during eight years of war, including mustard.
Tulsi Gabbard
Gas and nerve agents.
Josh Keating
And then they started basically think also as a nuclear program, as a way of getting U.S. s attention to sit down at the table and negotiate with Iran about lifting sanctions and de Escalating. And every time the US Balked at it, they built the program bigger.
Tulsi Gabbard
The idea of Iran having a nuclear.
Josh Keating
Weapon is unacceptable, and it's unacceptable to the United States, and it's unacceptable to.
Tulsi Gabbard
The nations we're working with in the United Nations.
Josh Keating
And Obama came to the table. He signed a deal.
Tulsi Gabbard
Because America negotiated from a position of strength and principle. We have stopped the spread of nuclear weapons in this region.
Josh Keating
Iran gave up much of its program, not all of it, much of it.
Tulsi Gabbard
Because of this deal, the international community will be able to verify that the Islamic Republic of Iran will not develop a nuclear weapon.
Josh Keating
And then Trump pocketed those gains and then left the deal. The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen. In just a short period of time, the world's leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world's most dangerous weapon. So the Iranians then built something bigger, and they were willing to negotiate over it with Trump when this attack by Israel and then the US Came. So until now, I don't think they made a decision to build the bomb. But definitely the nuclear program had very important strategic value for them, which is the only way in which they can get out of the chokehold of U.S. sanctions. The containment wall that Iran has built around them is to put the nuclear program on the table and say, what are you going to give me for it if I gave up X, Y and Z?
Sean Ramis
And now President Trump says Iran's key.
Josh Keating
Nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.
Sean Ramis
But it feels like there are people out there with different views. What is the best understanding we have of what just happened to Iran's nuclear program?
Josh Keating
Well, we have the word that's been put out by the United States that this was a very successful bombing that they've used upwards of 13 massive bunker buster bombs on this site called Fordo, which is a massive mountain under which Iran has built its plant.
Sean Ramis
We devastated the Iranian nuclear program.
Josh Keating
Now, in reality, unless you actually put people on the ground, particularly in Fordo, which is this fortified mountain, you really won't know what has been destroyed and how much damage has been done. Now, increasingly there is talk that actually Iran had emptied out these facilities of their centrifuges or sensitive machinery, et cetera. So the facilities might have been damaged, but not necessarily what was in them. And most importantly, according to Israel, that Iran had amassed enough fissile material for nine bombs. And that's why they were imminently going to get a bomb or nine bombs. And that's why Israel had to do this. But the Vice President just said yesterday that we don't know where that material is. It has taken its sensitive material out of these enrichment production sites.
Sean Ramis
We know that, we know that they've moved the enriched uranium.
Josh Keating
Well, we won't know anything for sure until we can get in there, and we can, but there is evidence, and in fact, even Israelis have said that there were trucks, evidence of trucks moving, you know, near Fardo, this site, in the days before the attack came. And maybe that's also what pushed them to do move the attack up. When the President said two weeks, they moved it faster. So we really don't know what's been damaged. And then secondly, we don't know how quickly can Iranians rebuild it because, you know, they have know how, they have engineers, they have scientists, they have capability. So if anything, the US has damaged the program, has initiated a war with Iran at some level, but it has fallen short of its claim that it has completely obliterated Iran's nuclear program.
Sean Ramis
But what we know, John, is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium. And that was really the goal here. Uranium is not that difficult to come by, John, but enriching uranium up to.
Tulsi Gabbard
The point of a nuclear weapon, that.
Sean Ramis
Is what the President put a stop to last night. What would a war with Iran look like? Many of Iran's proxies and friends from Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, even Russia are either weakened, destroyed, preoccupied. What should we expect in terms of retaliation from Iran?
Josh Keating
Well, Iran has enough missiles, short range missiles, medium range missiles to hit plenty of US targets in the region, or not hit US targets, go after the oil and energy supply chain, close the Straits of Hormuz, hit Tankers, things like that. So I think an Iranian retaliation will come. I don't think Iran is looking to start a bigger war. But Iran also does not want President Trump to think that this was really easy. Let's do it every day of the week. So I think the retaliation will not be so much out of anger or lashing out or revenge as it will be to still try to give the US A sense that this is not a good idea.
Sean Ramis
Up until just a few weeks ago, it seemed like President Trump wanted to talk to Iran, wanted to consider a deal with Iran. Is that now off the table?
Josh Keating
Well, what he thinks about a deal is not what the Iranians understand about a deal. I mean, right now he's talking about, I want you to show up and sign a surrender treaty, an unconditional surrender treaty. That's what his definition of a deal is. A deal would now be much more difficult because I think Iran's experience with this whole thing means that it has led them to a point where they don't trust in anything President Trump says or does. He says, I make a decision to bomb you in two weeks. He does it the next night. He says, you know, we have one more round of talks going, and I only am gonna go to a military option if the talks fail. And he allows Israel to start the military option before the talks failed. So why would Iran necessarily trust a deal with the US A lot of.
Sean Ramis
People are scared right now that the United States, the world, is about to see another forever war, Maybe World War iii, if you're super paranoid. Does Iran want that? Does any. Does anyone. Does anyone actually want that?
Josh Keating
No, I don't know if anybody want that. But I don't think there's. World War 3 is a bit hyperbolic, because World War 3 sort of suggests that there are circumstances in which Russia or China or other global powers can come into this war. And I just don't see that. So that's going too hyperbolic. But I think a real costly forever war, another Middle east war that is going to look Iraq look like child play. And, you know, Israel can start this war, but in the end, the United States will be the one that will own it and will have to deal with it. And it's going to cost the United States trillions of dollars. It's going to divert its attention from varieties of other global issues. It's going to be extremely taxing. I don't think the US Wants it. I don't think Iran wants it. But I think we're in a circumstance where President Trump decided that if he struck Iran, there is no risk of having to then put boots on the ground, which is a huge assumption in my point of view. It has to basically shoot a bow across President Trump's arrow for him to sort of realize that there is serious risk here because only then might he back off. And so for that reason, I do think that Iranians would retaliate, not out of pride, but out of the desire to warn the president that you shouldn't go down this path.
Sean Ramis
Vali Nasser is a professor of Middle Eastern Studies at Johns Hopkins University. His book Once More is titled Iraq Iran's Grand Strategy of Political History. Shortly after we spoke today, Iran said it launched an attack on the largest US Base in the Middle east that would be in Qatar. As of publishing time, we had no reported casualties. Peter Balinon Rosen and Hadi Mwadi made our show today. Miranda Kennedy, Laura Buller, Denise Guerra, Andrea Christensdatter and Patrick Boyd helped this is Today explained point.
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Today, Explained: America First (unless Iran...)
Released on June 23, 2025 | Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network
Hosts: Sean Ramis and Josh Keating
Guest Appearances: Dan Kane, Tulsi Gabbard, Professor Vali Nasser
[00:01] Sean Ramis:
“This weekend, the current President of the United States did something no former president of the United States has ever done. He bombed Iran.”
In a striking development, President Trump initiated airstrikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, marking a first in U.S. presidential history. This bold move has ignited intense debate over its necessity and implications.
[16:53] Josh Keating:
“...it hasn’t been developing a nuclear weapon. It has been developing a nuclear program. It actually started before the revolution under the Shah...”
Professor Vali Nasser provides a historical perspective, outlining Iran's nuclear ambitions that date back to the pre-revolution era under the Shah, initially aimed at modernization and industrialization. The Islamic Republic later perceived the nuclear program as a strategic tool to gain leverage against U.S. sanctions and regional adversaries.
[02:03] Dan Kane:
“So on Saturday night US Time, the US launched airstrikes against Iran's nuclear program.”
President Trump's decision to strike Iran was influenced by a confluence of factors, including new intelligence from Israel suggesting Iran's accelerated nuclear capabilities. Despite skepticism within his own intelligence community, Trump proceeded, emphasizing his confidence in achieving America’s national security objectives.
[03:38] Tulsi Gabbard:
“Building a nuclear weapon. And Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.”
Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, expressed doubts about Iran's progress toward developing nuclear weapons, directly contrasting the President’s stance. This discord highlights a significant internal rift within the administration regarding Iran's nuclear threat.
[06:58] Sean Ramis:
“He didn't even tell you?”
[06:53] Dan Kane:
“No, he didn’t. He didn’t?”
The administration proceeded with the airstrikes without broad congressional authorization, adhering to a long-standing tradition but raising questions about transparency and consensus.
[22:07] Sean Ramis:
“But what we know, John, is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched uranium to weapons-grade uranium.”
While President Trump declared the Iranian nuclear facilities obliterated, experts caution that the true extent of the damage remains unclear without on-the-ground assessments. There are indications that Iran may have preemptively moved sensitive materials, potentially mitigating the immediate impact of the strikes.
[22:45] Josh Keating:
“Well, Iran has enough missiles, short range missiles, medium range missiles to hit plenty of US targets in the region...”
The podcast discusses the likelihood of Iranian retaliation, which could include missile attacks targeting U.S. interests in the Middle East or disrupting global oil supplies. However, both the U.S. and Iran appear to prefer avoiding a protracted conflict, though mistrust remains high.
[10:26] Sean Ramis:
“It was a major shift. I mean, and I don't really have a good explanation for it other than this is a president who's shown more than once he's capable of shifting on a dime in foreign policy.”
Trump's foreign policy has exhibited unpredictability, oscillating between isolationist rhetoric and aggressive military actions. The acknowledgment of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the context of bombing Iran signifies a possible alignment shift, raising questions about the consistency of the "America First" doctrine.
[28:42] Josh Keating:
“Support for the show comes from Mercury. What if banking did more?”
Professor Vali Nasser discusses Iran’s grand strategy, emphasizing that while Iran has not yet developed a nuclear weapon, its nuclear program remains a strategic priority. The recent strikes have disrupted but not dismantled Iran's nuclear ambitions entirely, leaving room for future negotiations or conflicts.
The episode concludes by acknowledging the precarious balance in U.S.-Iran relations following the unprecedented airstrikes. The potential for escalation remains, but both nations appear wary of engaging in an all-out war. The international community watches closely as the situation unfolds, contemplating the broader implications for regional stability and global security.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps:
Final Notes:
This episode of Today, Explained provides a comprehensive analysis of President Trump’s unprecedented decision to bomb Iran, delving into the historical context, internal administrative conflicts, and the potential ramifications for international relations. Through expert insights and in-depth discussion, the hosts unravel the complexities of this significant geopolitical event.