Today, Explained: America’s Miraculous Murder Decline

Released on July 23, 2025 | Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Noel King | Produced by Vox

Introduction: A Remarkable Decline in Homicides

In the latest episode of Today, Explained, hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King delve into an encouraging trend sweeping across the United States: a significant decline in the national homicide rate. According to Miles Bryan, senior producer and reporter for the program, the United States is witnessing a reduction in homicides faster than ever since the early 1960s. In fact, 2020 is projected to record the lowest homicide rate on record.

Miles Bryan [00:16]: "The United States homicide rate is falling faster now than it ever has in the history of our data on this, which goes back to the early 1960s."

Baltimore: A Case Study in Crime Reduction

To understand this trend, the episode zeroes in on Baltimore, a city historically plagued by high crime rates. The story is framed through the lens of Brandon Scott, Baltimore’s 52nd mayor, who has been instrumental in implementing strategies to curb violence.

The Legacy of "The Wire" and Early Policing Experiences

Miles Bryan introduces the narrative by referencing the acclaimed HBO series The Wire, which portrays the gritty realities of crime and policing in Baltimore. This portrayal sets the stage for understanding the city's long-standing issues with law enforcement.

Brandon Scott [03:05]: "I am Brandon Scott, the 52nd mayor of the city of Baltimore, the greatest city in America."

Scott recounts his childhood in the Park Heights neighborhood, highlighting the heavy-handed policing tactics reminiscent of those depicted in The Wire.

Brandon Scott [03:28]: "When I was growing up in Baltimore, they. I was a data point, right? I was a young black man in Park Heights. I was a data point, but I was a data point that they looked at as an issue to solve."

Freddie Gray's Death and Its Aftermath

The episode revisits the tragic death of Freddie Gray in 2015, an event that ignited nationwide protests and unrest. Gray's death underscored the tensions between the Baltimore Police Department and the community.

Miles Bryan [03:55]: "He suffers a severe spinal cord injury. He died a week later. And his death set off these huge protests."

Amidst the chaos, Scott emerges as a prominent figure advocating for peaceful resolutions and accountability.

Brandon Scott [05:03]: "I believe it will be because folks know that this is not the way to get answered. This is not the way to get justice."

Despite initial setbacks, including a spike in murders—from 211 in 2014 to 344 in 2015—Baltimore begins to see a decline in homicides following strategic interventions.

Brandon Scott’s Focused Deterrence Strategy

Elected as mayor in late 2020, Brandon Scott spearheads a comprehensive approach known as focused deterrence, a strategy aimed at targeting individuals most likely to be involved in gun violence.

Brandon Scott [07:24]: "As mayor, I will focus on addressing the root causes of crime and investing in our communities, all while acting with the urgency to address the violence we see on a Day to Day basis."

Implementation and the Role of Roca

Central to this strategy is collaboration with organizations like Roca, a nonprofit dedicated to outreach and rehabilitation for high-risk youth. Roca provides a blend of social services and enforcement, offering support while maintaining a firm stance against continued violence.

Brandon Scott [09:07]: "First, we would like to help you. We can offer you education, job training, job placement, emergency assistance, and other services. We're eager to help you succeed, and we'll do anything we can to support you and your friends."

Personal stories, such as that of a young man named James, illustrate the profound impact of these programs.

James [17:55]: "I've been in this program since 2023, right? I came home in 2023. January 10, 2023, I came home for real. I got booked for a gun. For real. I was locked up when I came home. Like I'm saying, from then to now, my whole mindset changed."

Contributing Factors to the Decline in Homicides

While Baltimore's focused deterrence program plays a significant role, several national factors contribute to the overall decline in gun violence across the United States.

1. Post-Pandemic Recovery

The end of COVID-19 restrictions has reopened schools, recreational centers, and public spaces, providing youth with more activities and reducing idle time that can lead to criminal behavior.

James [21:17]: "They closed all the fields and all the... But be outside."

2. Exhaustion of Violence Cycles

Criminologist Daniel Webster from Johns Hopkins explains that ongoing cycles of retaliation in gun violence begin to exhaust themselves as participants are either incapacitated or deterred.

Miles Bryan [21:49]: "Gun violence feeds on itself, right? One shooting leads to two retaliatory shootings, which leads to four more, and on and on."

3. Increased Funding for Social Programs and Policing

Federal initiatives, particularly the American Rescue Plan Act signed in 2021, provided substantial funding for upgrading public infrastructure and supporting anti-violence groups like Roca.

Miles Bryan [22:40]: "Baltimore got $40 million for upgrading parks and rec centers. Mayor Scott put $50 million into his gun violence reduction plan right away."

Nationally, there has been a significant increase in funding for both policing and neighborhood social centers, contributing to the reduction in gun violence.

Miles Bryan [24:02]: "Local and state government spending on neighborhood social centers went up by 82%. Spending on lighting, which has been proven to help reduce gun violence, went up by 45%."

Challenges and the Future Outlook

Despite the positive trends, the Trump administration's rollback of funding poses a threat to the sustainability of violence reduction efforts. Cuts to organizations like Roca could undermine the progress made.

Brandon Scott [26:03]: "If you were talking to my grandmother... she wanted policing in our neighborhood that were focusing in on who they need to be focused on and not or my brother's just simply because we were making a three minute walk from her house to my house."

Criminologists express concern that these funding cuts could destabilize the delicate balance that has contributed to the decline in homicides.

Miles Bryan [26:28]: "There's a decent chance we're just going to throw it all away."

Conclusion: A Fragile Triumph

The episode concludes on a cautious note, celebrating the significant strides made in reducing gun violence while acknowledging the precarious nature of these achievements in the face of political and financial challenges.

Jeff Asher [25:14]: "It's, quote, slop being thrown against the wall. But it's also, I think, well, Informed slop, if that's a thing. And it is the thing that I think helps to explain why we're seeing it everywhere and why it has been so significant because it was a really enormous increase in spending above and beyond what we've ever done before."

The hosts underscore the importance of continued investment and strategic efforts to maintain and build upon the progress achieved in cities like Baltimore.

Notable Quotes:

• Miles Bryan [00:16]: "The United States homicide rate is falling faster now than it ever has in the history of our data on this..."

• Brandon Scott [03:28]: "When I was growing up in Baltimore, they... I was a data point that they looked at as an issue to solve."

• Brandon Scott [09:07]: "First, we would like to help you... We're eager to help you succeed..."

• James [17:55]: "I've been in this program since 2023... my whole mindset changed."

• Miles Bryan [21:49]: "Gun violence feeds on itself..."

• Brandon Scott [26:03]: "What she would say is that she wanted policing in our neighborhood that were focusing in on who they need to be focused on..."

This episode of Today, Explained offers a comprehensive exploration of the complex factors behind the decline in homicide rates in the United States, with Baltimore serving as a pivotal example of effective intervention strategies. The narrative balances optimism with realism, highlighting both successes and ongoing threats to public safety initiatives.