Alex Ward (1:50)

Who knows, man? It's the first day of a two week ceasefire. Who knows where this is going to go? I mean, at this point we could have the war end or it could restart. The Strait of Hormuz could be open, it could be closed. The buried uranium could be taken out, it could be left in Iran. There's so many open questions at this point. The only thing we know for sure is that as of this moment, the US and Iran will not be attacking each other. But that could change.

Sean Rames (2:19)

And so the US And Iran have stopped bombing each other. But those aren't the only two players in this war. What about Israel?

Alex Ward (2:28)

So Israel came out with a statement on Tuesday night in which they said, yeah, okay, well like we hear you, there's a ceasefire, but also we're not going to stop attacking Lebanon, which is a sort of a side but related war to all of this.

Sean Rames (2:41)

Well, the military has just launched an attack on Beirut's southern suburbs. The assault targeted densely populated residential areas.

Noel King (2:48)

This Wednesday Morning, an Israeli strike destroyed a building in the southern city of Tyre, following a warning from the IDF to evacuate for many weeks.

Alex Ward (2:58)

Government officials have said that regardless of what happens with the war in Iran, their operations will continue in Lebanon. You also have Gulf countries we should know, right? A lot of those, those countries are American allies, the uae, Saudi Arabia, etcetera, Who don't necessarily want Iran to just kind of be there, you know, a wounded regime that could reconstitute. They kind of want, you know, Iran defeated, decimated, unable to threaten them anymore. You know, as much as Trump wants to sort of play this, as it's the US And Iran and the deal's been made and everything's gonna be hunky dory going forward, there are a lot of other countries that have a say in this. You know, there's usually that saying in conflicts that the enemy gets a vote. That still remains true in the case of Iran, but it also, I guess you can say allies also have a vote. And if you're Israel, if you're some Gulf countries, you're going to be pushing Trump hard to maybe not end this right away, or at least not end it until a lot of other conditions are met.

Sean Rames (4:00)

Let's talk about how we got here, because the President addressed the nation in what I would say was like a rather low energy broadcast a week ago

Pete Hegseth (4:09)

today, Operation Epic Fury, targeting the world's number one state sponsor of terror, Iran,

Sean Rames (4:18)

and there was no mention of a ceasefire. And yet here we are a week later and we have one. How did that happen?

Alex Ward (4:23)

Here's what the Trump administration would say. They would say, Trump is a master negotiator. He threatened to bomb very important things in Iran.

Pete Hegseth (4:31)

Had Iran refused our terms, the next targets would have been their power plants, their bridges and oil and energy infrastructure, targets they could not defend and could not realistically rebuild. It would have taken them decades. And we were locked and loaded.

Alex Ward (4:49)

And that, that led Tehran to cower and to basically beg to come to the table and end this war, that'd be their argument.

Pete Hegseth (4:57)

He spared those targets because Iran accepted the ceasefire under overwhelming press pressure.

Alex Ward (5:03)

The other argument, which I've heard, you know, we've reported in others, is basically, Trump wanted out of this war a while ago. He's tired of the war. He's. He's pretty much done. He wants to go do other things. You'll notice how often he brings out, like, mockups of his new ballroom and he talks about Cuba and then. And other things like he's, he's focused on Other stuff. And we should also note that Republicans have been telling Trump for a while, you know, the midterms are coming and this war is unpopular and this is sort of an anchor weighing the party down. I think the proof is in Trump's truth Social message last night in which he said

Pete Hegseth (5:38)

truth Social.

Alex Ward (5:40)

We received a 10 point proposal from

Sean Rames (5:42)

Iran and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate. Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but the two week period will allow the agreement to be finalized and consummated.

Alex Ward (6:00)

Well, what's in that plan has basically been Iran's maximus positions for a while now. Again, I want to note, this is again day one of a two week ceasefire. Both sides are very far apart on their issues. The American 15 point plan and the Iranian 10 point plan are as diametrically opposed as possible. So there's a lot of differences they have to bridge here in a two week period, which seems short. Does that mean the bombs fly down the line? No, but they could. Right? This is just a pause. This is not the end of the war as of this moment, even though the Trump administration is kind of talking about it in those terms.

Pete Hegseth (6:34)

Operation Epic Fury. Less than six weeks. Clear mission. Decisive action. Overwhelming firepower. America First. A historic battlefield victory.

Sean Rames (6:46)

If the Trump administration and the President himself are nodding to this ten point peace plan that Iran proposed, does that mean that Iran kind of won here?

Alex Ward (6:59)

There are no winners in this war, and not in the sense of like, war produces no winners. Like, strategically speaking, everyone has lost this war, but we still don't know exactly who's like, lost less until we know what the ends of these negotiations are. I mean, let's take a quick strategic step back here. If you're Iran, you've just had your military decimated, your regime decimated you by virtue of shooting. Gulf countries have lost, you know, decades of work to try to ingratiate yourself back to the region. It is now a more isolated, weaker, pariah state. And you've got the US and the global community trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and you've got more monitoring about which kinds of countries might be sending you weapons to rebuild your military. On the US Side of the ledger, yes, you have decimated Iran's military regime, blah, blah, blah. But what did that cost? That cost Gulf allies being mad at you and now their whole strategy of like, being seen as this oasis of investment and progress within the Middle east, that's gone. Because Iran can still Threaten them. You've got allies in Asia who are struggling with their energy needs because of the Strait Hormuz closure. You've got a weaker NATO, let's say, because Trump keeps bashing allies over this war. You've got the US which has expended tons of munitions to bomb Iranian targets, which, you know, I think most analysts would say harms future plans for a potential war with China over Taiwan, therefore lowering deterrence. And then you've isolated the US More on the global stage because no one was really happy about this war. I think what ends up sort of tilting it in terms of. In the way I would term it, who lost less, is what happens with the Strait of Hormuz. Right, because that is the economic, global choke point. It was open before this war started, and now Iran's grip on it is stronger than before, and they're the ones charging money for, you know, safe passage. So does Iran still get to do that? As of this moment, they're still doing it. Does that continue to happen? Or does it open up again? Or as Trump suggested this morning, there'll be some sort of joint toll sharing venture between the US And Iran. Who knows?

Sean Rames (9:09)

Okay, so this is all about the Strait still. This has been about the Strait for a while now. What happens next?

Alex Ward (9:17)

Well, it sounds like there's going to be talks in Islamabad starting Friday, and it's unclear if that's going to be direct or indirect talks. By direct talks, I mean the US And Iran speaking, like direct, you know, across the table from each other, talking face to face. By indirect, I mean a mediator. Basically, it's. It's a weird game of diplomatic telephone where the Iranians would talk to the mediator, and that could be Pakistan, Egypt, Turkey. They give their points to the mediator, the mediator relays those points to the US and then back and forth they go. So it's a. It's just a weird diplomatic dance. The greater sticking point is going to be whether Iran has the right to enrich uranium down the line, because that's one thing that they say that they have a right to do under international law, under certain treaties. They say they need it for medical research or other kinds of scientific progress. And so it is unfair of the US or the international community to force Iran to give up its enrichment rights. The US Will basically demand that they don't do that, or at least that if they were to enrich, the US Would have immense oversight over that enrichment program.

Sean Rames (10:15)

It's kind of shocking how we got here. The president did a Post, as he so often does, but this time it was a post threatening genocide. And, like, did that work? And if so, is that just how we're gonna roll now?

Alex Ward (10:32)

It is shocking to see an American president basically, like, threaten to wipe an entire civilization off the map. But we should also know, or note, I should say that in the first term, Trump basically threatened to do that to North Korea. Right. During the whole firing fury and red button stuff. I think President Trump, when it comes to his diplomacy and his foreign policy is effectively like Seth Rogen's character and I believe the movie Knocked up, in which he's dancing with Katherine Heigl and he's doing like a dice dance move and his team goes like, dude, I

Benjamin Wallace Wells (10:59)

think he's doing the dice thing too much.

Alex Ward (11:02)

That's really all he's got. Like, that's how Trump does this. He gets to a point, he threatens a major escalation, and he either encourages, like, an escalation of a war or some sort of climb down in which it's unclear whether the US Actually gets more benefit than less. So I think, like, this is his dice move. Escalate to de. Escalate is. Is Trump's knocked up dice move. Now, where we go from here? Expect more of it, right? I mean, if the Iranians aren't playing ball diplomatically in the way Trump wants, Trump's probably going to threaten to restart this war. I would bet on that. There was no question America was going to wipe the floor with the Iranians. That was not even a debate. The question was, could you win, quote, unquote. And the win, as described by the United States, was basically stop Iran from ever getting a nuclear weapon and, you know, impeded from threatening everyone ever again. Well, they've got a grip on the Strait of Hormuz. They still have the nuclear material that might go. But, like, can you guarantee Iran's never going to get a nuclear weapon again? You can't. The regime is still in place, you know, that could still survive. Trump is claiming it's a new regime, but it ain't. They're just a different group of the same regime. Figures that's where we're at. Does it end? It really just depends on, like, Trump's whims at this point.

Sean Rames (12:25)

This ceasefire situation is sure to change, and Alex Ward will be on top of it for you at WSJ. Trump's threat to destroy an entire civilization got a lot of attention because it felt like a real departure from a wartime president, but it's very much in Pete. Hegseth's Wheelhouse when we're back on today Explained. Support for the show comes from Shopify. Every thriving business starts with a series of what if questions. Shopify says there's what if I fail, but you should also consider what if you don't. I like that thinking glass half full kind of thinking. There's only one way to find out and you can make it happen with help from Shopify. They say Millions of businesses around the world rely on Shopify for e commerce. From businesses just getting started to household name brands, it can help you with everything from payment processing to analytics to website design. You can choose from hundreds of templates to create great looking websites. Their email and marketing tools can help you get your name out there and stay connected with customers. And if you ever need help, Shopify's 247 award winning customer support has got your back. I like the 24 7. That's nice. You can turn those what ifs into a thriving business with Shopify today. You can sign up for your $1 per month trial today at shopify.comexplained. you can go to shopify.comexplained. that's shopify.comexplained.

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Sean Rames (15:35)

Noel, we haven't practiced this, but if I asked you right now, in this moment, let's say, what is it? You know, spring 2026. Why is it important to support journalism right now?

Noel King (15:46)

Well, Sean, the world is a little overwhelming at this moment. There is a lot going on. It can be a little scary. It's also kind of beautiful, and it's worth explaining.

Sean Rames (15:57)

Yeah, I would argue, in addition to that, there's a lot of trash information out there. Like, people even want to rely on AI But AI Isn't being fact checked. It's just pulling from a bunch of places. And sometimes you've seen it giving you the wrong information. We fact check our show. You hear at the end of the show every day, who fact checks the show? We put a lot of effort into making sure that we are bringing you the most accurate information possible. And you can support that effort.

Noel King (16:24)

That's right. If you believe in the journalism that we do as much as we do, you can become a Vox member. Vox.com members 30% off. Can you believe it?

Sean Rames (16:34)

Let's go.

Noel King (16:34)

Your first year. Sign up now.

Sean Rames (16:36)

Thank you.

Alex Ward (16:38)

Yes, sir. Quick question from Today Explained.

Pete Hegseth (16:41)

Excuse me. Why are you so rude? Just wait.

Sean Rames (16:43)

Today Explained is back. Before the war in Iran began, the President rebranded the Department of Defense to something more offensive, the Department of War. His secretary, Pete Hegseth, was fully on board with the change, because his whole philosophy is something called maximum lethality. We asked Benjamin Wallace Wells from the New Yorker to tell us how that philosophy was realized in Pete and Donald's first big war.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (17:14)

What Pete Hegseth has wanted for many years, the kind of cause that animated him and that he brought to the Pentag. The reason he took the job was to unleash, he would say, the ability of the American warrior, the American soldier, to fight wars with fewer restrictions.

Pete Hegseth (17:35)

We're crushing the enemy in an overwhelming display of technical skill and military force. We will not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (17:47)

He has made, since he became Secretary of Defense, Secretary of War. In the administration's branding, the phrase maximum lethality his watchword. He talks about that all the time. Unleashing lethality, unleashing a warrior ethos, unleashing the American soldier, and pursued that at every opportunity.

Pete Hegseth (18:07)

Maximum lethality. Not tepid legality, violent effect, not politically correct. We're gonna raise up warriors, not just defenders.

Sean Rames (18:23)

Pete Hegseth is really driven by this idea of maximum lethality. Although up until a Year and a half ago, a little less. He was sort of driven by this idea, theoretically. Now he's in charge of the United States Armed Forces and in charge of a war. So how is he executing this concept of his?

Benjamin Wallace Wells (18:46)

I'd say a couple of things. The first is it's interesting to note in all of the reporting that we've seen about the president inside the White House from many different outlets, that Hegseth is the only person who's in the president's circle who seems as optimistic as Trump does about the progress of the war and the possibilities of the war. You see JD Vance distancing himself very actively from the war. You see Marco Rubio taking an ambivalent position. General Kaine is pretty clear to let it be known that he sees risks as well as possibilities. But Hegseth has been gung ho the whole way.

Pete Hegseth (19:29)

We're winning decisively with brutal efficiency, total air dominance, and an unbreakable will to accomplish the president's objectives. On our timeline, we stay locked on the target, because here at the Department of War, that's our job.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (19:45)

And so, you know, his approach to the war, I think, has been that American lethality will deliver whatever the president wants. You know, in the very first hours of the war, you have this massive bombing raid that kills Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. And then President Trump comes out a few days later and says, actually, in that raid, not only was Khamenei killed, but some of the other senior figures in the Iranian regime who we had hoped might succeed. Khamenei is dead.

Alex Ward (20:19)

And now we have another group.

Pete Hegseth (20:21)

They may be dead also, based on reports. So I guess you have a third

Alex Ward (20:26)

wave coming in pretty soon.

Pete Hegseth (20:28)

We're not going to know anybody.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (20:29)

Within about a day of the war Beginning, there were 175 people killed in a school in southern Iran, presumably through a targeting error, though we're still not totally sure exactly what happened there. But in both of these cases, you know, you see a kind of program of sort of unleashed lethality, lethality phrase that President Trump is now using kind of expansive, unconstrained form of bombing. And I think you can see in both those cases that it kind of undermines the war aims of the United States and the state of war aims of the president, both in eliminating some of the potential replacements in the case of the initial bombing, and then also in making it just a little harder to imagine. Imagine the Iranian public getting behind and joining in with this bombing raid and engaging in the kind of uprising that President Trump has said he wants to. Wants to trigger.

Sean Rames (21:25)

Well, how much of his approach do we think is coming from his own belief system and this concept of maximum lethality? And how much of it is, like so many in his cabinet, just wanting to please the president?

Alex Ward (21:43)

Mm.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (21:43)

It's interesting to see, to think of Vance, Rubio and Hagseth as each representing one kind of idea of the president. Vance represents the sort of nationalism of the president. Rubio represents maybe a more traditional Republican transactional approach. And Hegseth, I think, just represents the full, you know, military maximalism. And I think that Hegseth has become more influential because he is more distinct in this moment, you know, because he is. He has been the one who has, I think, successfully seen what the President wants to do on Iran and made himself sort of the spokesman and enabler of that.

Pete Hegseth (22:29)

If you kill Americans, if you threaten Americans anywhere on earth, we will hunt you down without apology and without hesitation, and we will kill you. It was the American warrior unleashed. It was the kind of war fighting American spirit that comes with a clear mission against a determined enemy.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (22:51)

I do, you know, think that there's a pretty good chance that this doesn't turn out so well, you know, in public opinion and the progress of the war. And I'm not sure that it's been like a very, you know, savvy long term play for Hegseth. But I think we should remember that, you know, Hegseth there was, you know, Hegseth did not have a political base or position or role in the world before Trump tapped him. He had never been a senior military commander. He'd served in the military as a younger man. He was the weekend co host of Fox and Friends.

Pete Hegseth (23:25)

But if I had a dollar for every parent who came up to me out on the road and said, my kid went to college as a godfather fearing patriot, and they came back a Bernie Socialist who questions America. I'd be a rich man.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (23:37)

He owes his position in the world to President Trump. He's, according to public opinion, now deeply unpopular, as the war is. And so it's not crazy for him to sort of take a shot. And if we're thinking just sort of in pure personal terms, it's not crazy for him to take a shot and try to position himself as the face of, you know, the kind of maximalist face of this war. But I do think that there may be real costs for the rest of us of his advocacy.

Sean Rames (24:13)

Another thing that feels significant to this conversation and feels like maybe a companion piece to this idea of maximum lethality is Pete Hegseth, unlike, say, Marco Rubio or the members of the Trump cabinet, is really tying this war and his approach to God.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (24:33)

Yeah. And I would say to a Christian God, even more specifically. He specifically asked during military press conferences

Pete Hegseth (24:40)

for people to pray for them every day on bended knee with your family, in your schools, in your churches, in the name of Jesus Christ.

Benjamin Wallace Wells (24:54)

Another element that matters here is he's referred to the Iranian regime is apocalyptic, you know, and together with delivering prayers, you know, from the podium where he's putatively, you know, giving technical updates on the progress of the war, it does give an atmosphere of holy war to the whole operation, which is, you know, I think, really unfortunate.

Pete Hegseth (25:17)

Crazy regimes like Iran, hell bent on prophetic Islamist delusions, cannot have nuclear weapons. It's common sense.

Sean Rames (25:27)

Let me pose a question to you that we asked Alex Ward early in the show. I mean, Pete's whole thing is maximum lethality. The President seemed to want to go even further with his post that got so much attention and reaction. The whole world was on edge. And then maybe it kind of worked. We get a ceasefire out of it that, you know, however tentative it might be, does that prove something about the concept of maximum lethality as a foreign policy?

Benjamin Wallace Wells (25:51)

Well, I mean, if you threaten nuclear war, you can spook some people. Like, I think that that's pretty intuitive, but I don't know that that really proves anything in terms of foreign policy. Look, we're looking at a situation still where Iran seems, again, all tentative, but seems like they're likely to have full control of the Strait of Hormuz, which was, you know, a major purported aim of the war, where the regime is still in control, where the United States is alie a huge number of its own allies around the world with its willingness to play brinksmanship. So in the narrow sense of. Trump had managed to get himself into a real trap and then by threatening enormous lethality, to use hegseth word, he was able to maneuver out. I guess it worked. But it's really hard for me to say that in any bigger picture sense this was, this was effective. I have to look back at this, this whole, you know, month plus adventure in Iran and just say, what was this all for? It sort of feels to me like a whole lot of fury and bombs and, you know, death. And it's really hard for me to see a lot that's come from it.

Sean Rames (27:17)

Benjamin Wallace Wells is a staff writer at the New Yorker. Arianna Espuru produced for Today explained from Amina Al Sai edited Gabriel Donatov Fact checked Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore mixed. Jack Detch from Politico also helped with today's show. Thank you, Jack.

Noel King (27:49)

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