
Iran's cutting-edge drones are changing how wars are fought, and the US is running out of munitions to combat them.
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Noel King
Early this morning, President Trump wrote on Truth Social that the war in Iran has taken a turn.
Donald Trump
Truth Social I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.
Noel King
Later, a senior official in Iran's Foreign ministry says that never happened.
Josh Keating
Mr. President, Iran's foreign Ministry says you're not telling the truth when it comes to productive conversations.
Michael Horowitz
To handle the world.
Anonymous Official
Well, they're going to have to get themselves better public relations people.
Noel King
Oh, okay. Coming up on today's plane from Fox, how the war in Iran might end. What if the will to fight is there, but the weapons aren't?
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Noel King
You're listening to Today, explained vox's Josh Keating. You wrote that this war isn't just a question of will, it's a question of means.
Josh Keating
Well, yeah, I mean, this is really kind of turning into a sort of war of attrition. This is a missile war. This is a war fought not by ground troops, but by missiles and drones being fired through the air.
Anonymous Official
No, I'm not putting troops anywhere. If I, if I were, I certainly wouldn't tell you.
Military Official
To date, We've struck over 7,000 targets across Iran and its military infrastructure.
Michael Horowitz
And in just the last few hours, we hit an Iranian drone carrier ship and as we speak, it's on fire,
Anonymous Official
it's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere.
Josh Keating
And so what we have is a kind of math problem on both sides. Iran has a certain number of projectiles that can fire at its enemies throughout the region and it's burning through them fast. And a lot of them have been destroyed by US And Israeli airstrikes.
Military Official
Ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90% since the start of the conflict. Same with one way attack UAVs.
Josh Keating
But where there is an acute shortage are on the interceptors. So these are basically sort of smaller projectiles that shoot down the missiles and drones that are fired by Iran. And so those are pretty expensive, pretty advanced systems and we don't make a lot of them.
Michael Horowitz
President Trump said there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions. And that's simply not the case.
Nisha Sheutal
The US Is using anti missile interceptors that cost millions.
Noel King
Each interceptor can reportedly cost anywhere between 500,000 to $4 million.
Josh Keating
And so just because of the quantity of stuff that Iran is basically hurling all across the Middle east, we're burning through the global stockpiles pretty fast. And that's a problem in this war. And it may be a problem for the US in other theaters as well.
Noel King
I assume the interceptors are being used for missiles on their way into Israel. Where else are they being used?
Josh Keating
Well, they're being used going into Israel. Yeah. People may have heard of the Iron Dome system, which is a sort of famous system that Israel uses previously to shoot down mostly like rockets from Hamas and Gaza. But they have pretty advanced systems shooting down these missiles from Iran as well. But Iran is also shooting a lot of missiles across the Persian Gulf at countries like the United Arab emirates.
Noel King
Iran firing 10 ballistic missiles and 45
Michael Horowitz
drones at the Emirati air defenses.
Josh Keating
And Qatar.
Sponsor/Advertiser
Just a few hours ago, the world's biggest liquefied natural gas facility, Qatar's Raslafan, was damaged by an Iranian missile strike.
Josh Keating
And Saudi Arabia.
Michael Horowitz
The targeting of Rial while a number
Noel King
of diplomats are meeting I cannot see as coincidental.
Michael Horowitz
And I think that's the clearest signal
Josh Keating
of how Iran feels about diplomacy. Actually, one of the surprises of this war has been that they're actually firing more missiles at those countries than they are at Israel. And they're firing at US bases throughout the region as well. So this is really a kind of all out regional retaliation strategy that Iran is using both against the US And Israel and at countries in the Gulf that are not actually part of this war, but are allies with The US And Israel.
Noel King
How is it possible that the United States does not make enough interceptors if the United States is aware of how important interceptors are?
Josh Keating
Yeah, well, I mean, part of it is just these things are expensive and, you know, a Patriot interceptor, which is kind of the top end. Those missiles, they cost about $4 million each. It's not something you want to fire at, you know, in a jury rigged drone that you bought off of Costco and like attached a grenade to, which is something we've seen in the war in Ukraine. If you think about what these are, it's basically shooting down a bullet with another bullet. And so that the fact that we have the technology to do that is pretty amazing. But these are pricey items. The US reportedly burned through an estimated $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors in just the first five days of this war. There's another system called THAAD, which are these advance mobile missile batteries. And during the war in June, the US Burned through about a quarter of its stock of them. You know, so this is an even more intense missile war now. So this is sort of a tough story to cover because every actor in it has incentive not to give you the latest and most accurate numbers. But, you know, we can assume that they're feeling the strain.
Noel King
Okay, so if I'm Iran, I'm thinking, let's just wait for the US to run out of interceptors. That's a good way to win this war. How long can Iran keep going?
Josh Keating
This is kind of the million dollar question, or maybe I should say the $4 billion question. You know, so early in this conflict, it looked like there was a real risk of that. I mean, there was reporting. Qatar, for instance, a US ally that hosts a major military base, was only a few days away from running out of interceptors entirely. The shortage is a little less acute now, and that's mainly because just the number of Iranian launches has dropped. They're firing, you know, according to the Pentagon's number, you know, 90% fewer missiles, something around 80% fewer drones. That means the supplies can probably hold up a lot longer because just because they're using fewer of them and sort of the question becomes, is Iran firing fewer missiles because it's running out of them. But it also is quite possible the Iranians are holding something in reserve that they know this could be a long conflict and they are kind of drizzling them out, so to speak, just using a few of the time just so they can continue to fight this war as long as possible and continue to impose costs. The calculation being that Trump's pain tolerance is just a lot lower than theirs and that sooner or later the President will get sick of this war and move on to other things.
Noel King
Is there evidence that Iran is holding back some of its weapons in order to surprise the US later on?
Josh Keating
You know, they certainly want to give that impression. If you look at another actor in this conflict, Hezbollah, which is the Lebanese militia, one of Israel's staunchest enemies, they fired like a handful of rockets into Israel, like maybe half a dozen. And I think a lot of analysts, reporters looked at that and were like, oh, Hezbollah's spent. Like they've been fighting Israel for two years. They just don't have it. And then a few days ago they launched 200 into Israel and that indicates they were holding back. So the Iranians may be doing the same. So my guess is it's a combination of the two, that there is a deliberate strategy where they're sort of parceling these out and they don't want to run out. This is an asymmetric fight. I don't think anyone was ever under any illusions that Iran was going to sort of defeat the US And Israel in a conventional military sense. What they can do is they're willing to absorb a lot more punishment up to and including the death of the Supreme Leader, while continuing to impose costs on the US On Israel, on the wider region. That might just be more than this US Government can tolerate at a time of rising gas prices, lowering poll numbers, impending midterms. Pick your factor at work here.
Noel King
I wonder what your reporting indicates about how America's other enemies are looking at this situation. If you and I are aware that the US Is running out of interceptors, so is China. Right. So is North Korea. So what does that mean?
Josh Keating
Yeah, I mean, I actually wrote an article last week on how Russia has been a beneficiary of this conflict on a few fronts. One being whenever oil is over $100 a barrel, that's good news for the Kremlin. But another, there are just these concerns that interceptors or other munitions that were previously bound for Ukraine could get diverted to the Middle East. And there hasn't been reporting that that's happening quite yet. But it's something that, you know, in recent conversations I've had with European, they've been very concerned about. And then. Yeah, and turning to East Asia, the same week there was this reported they were moving the Thaad system out of South Korea. North Korea was conducting tests of a new ship launched missile system of their own. So you know, I've written about this, this interceptor issue also about aircraft carriers. I mean, the US Only has three of those at sea at any one given time. You know, we've now moved two of them to the middle EAs, one of which, the Ford is, like, badly in need of maintenance to the point that, you know, they just had a terrible fire on that ship. Its deployment's been extended several times. And I think what both these stories really underline is that even with the sheer scale of money that the US Spends on its military, even with the advanced technology has, with our ability to, like, strike targets all over the world seemingly at will, that there really are still material constraints on the projection of US power and the ability to, like, shift on a dime from fighting one war in Venezuela one month to the Middle east the next month. That there are real issues with the number of munitions and interceptors we have. It takes time to move an aircraft carrier all the way across the Atlantic Ocean. That we still do live in a real world with real physical constraints, and that we have to remember that if we're going to be getting into a new military conflict every month.
Noel King
That was vox's Josh Keating. Coming up, attack of the drones.
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Noel King
It's Today Explained. We're back. All right, so President Trump says the US and Israel have destroyed 100% of Iran's military capability. That is not true. It's not true. The US has done damage to Iran's missile sites and military bases. But Iran still has cheap, easy to assemble drones that pose a real threat on the battlefield. Michael Horowitz, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, Tell us about them Drones.
Michael Horowitz
So today these one way attack drones like the Shahid 136 are used essentially as a substitute for a cruise missile. So if you imagine something like the US Tomahawk missile, if you think like way way back for someone like old like me to the first Gulf War,
Josh Keating
a perfect examp was the Tomahawk cruise missile. 333 cruise missiles were launched during the war against heavily defended targets such as air defense headquarters, key radar facilities and major communication centers.
Michael Horowitz
When we would see these images of missiles sort of Hitting a building and the idea that you could, if you were the United States, target not just a neighborhood, but a building, and not just a building, but the third floor, and not just the third floor, but the second window from the left. These drones are capable of that almost exact same level of accuracy. And so Iran is using them to do things like target American air defense radars, which are necessary to find other drones and shoot them down. Iran is using them to target government buildings like embassies. Iran is using them to target critical infrastructure that countries in the Middle east use for oil and gas. You can hit lots of things with them today. The thing that somebody like me worries about is that American aircraft carriers in general are extremely well protected. There's generally a whole set of ships around them and they have these enormous defense systems designed to ensure sort of nothing happens. And a drone in and of itself would never take out an American aircraft carrier. They're just too small. But a lot of them could. And the real risk here is that suppose you fired not one, you know, not 100, but 500 at an American aircraft carrier at once. Even if the US could shoot down 450 of them, that's still a lot that are getting through. And like, who knows, I mean, whether the aircraft carrier would actually sink or not. But the point being that the scale of these one way attack drones that you can launch generates the potential ability to not just target the kinds of infrastructure and things that we're seeing Iran doing, but really important military targets as well, including our ships.
Noel King
Iran presumably does not have an infinite number of these drones. Or am I just telling myself that to calm myself down? Like, how many do they actually have on hand?
Michael Horowitz
We don't actually know exactly how many Iran has on hand, but we know that they have thousands. We also know, for example, that Russia has the ability to produce a thousand or more every couple of weeks of their knockoff in some ways of the Shaheed 136. And so Iran likely has the ability to do something in that range as well, except that the US and Israel are obviously targeting their manufacturing capabilities. But Iran has a lot of manufacturing that's more underground. And because you can use commercial manufacturing to build these systems, you can do that almost anywhere. That's one of the reasons why I have been very vocal that the United States needs to invest more in these capabilities. And why I was thrilled, frankly, in the context of this conflict, regardless of what one thinks of the conflict itself, to see the US use its own first precise mass system, the Lucas against Iran early in the conflict.
Josh Keating
This is the Lucas Drone low cost unmanned combat attack system.
Claire White
An Arizona company developed the drones with a range of about 500 miles and a maximum payload of 40 pounds.
Michael Horowitz
The American military arsenal is based on quality over quantity. It's based on having small numbers of exquisite, expensive, hard to produce systems that are the best in the world. But they were designed to be essentially craft produce or bespoke produce, like you'd buy them on Etsy or something. They were not designed for mass production. The issue is that that's not enough anymore. In a world where it required having those expensive, exquisite kinds of systems to do things like accurately fire weapons at your adversaries, then that was a source of a kind of unique advantage, generational advantage for the United States military. But because everybody, both smaller states and militant groups can launch more accurate precision strike at lots of different targets, it means that the just having those kinds of systems is not enough for the United States. Like if Iran is firing a $35,000 Shaheed 136 at the United States and the United States is shooting it down with a weapon that costs anywhere between $1 million per shot and $4 million per shot, you do not need to be a defense planner to understand that that cost curve is in the wrong direction.
Noel King
Yeah. Does that cost curve mean that the US can't win this war? Like, how does this play out?
Michael Horowitz
The cost curve does not mean the US can't win the war.
Noel King
War.
Michael Horowitz
One of the many factors that will influence whether the US Wins the war is Iran's continuing ability to launch these Shaheed 136s and other weapons in their arsenal, and then the ability of the United States and its allies and partners to shoot them down. But this is really, interestingly one of the reasons why the US And Israel have been so focused on trying to destroy the launchers and launching areas for Iran's ballistic missiles and some of its drones.
Military Official
Iran's air defenses flattened, Iran's defense industrial base. The factories, the production lines that feed their missile and drone programs being overwhelmingly destroyed.
Michael Horowitz
And the US and Israel have been really effective at going after many of those ballistic missile sites because it takes so much more infrastructure essentially to fire a ballistic missile. And so those are easier to find. The challenge that these drones you could kind of launch from anywhere. Like you could launch them from the back of a pickup truck. So it's tough to like, tough to like hit all the areas that could launch those.
Noel King
How did Iran, a country that is under sanctions, a country that's economy has Been, I don't know, kind of a mess over the last generation. How did it get so well armed?
Michael Horowitz
I mean, you know, the necessity is the mother of invention. A country like Iran has felt intense security threats in the region. I mean and in part that's because of Iran's own ideology. Like if you're, if you're going to roll around ch chanting Death to America.
Noel King
So that was the scene chanting Death to Israel, Death to America in the
Michael Horowitz
Iranian parliament then you need to be prepared for the United States and the region to like maybe have some questions. So Iran for in Iran fought a war against Iraq in the 1980s. Iran has been in continual tussles essentially at a smaller scale with, with various neighbors over the years. And so Iran built up a pretty ext extensive military arsenal. Like not as fancy as the United States, not anywhere near as good as the United States or Israel. But Iran in some ways because they had to, was a pioneer in developing these low cost, long range, precise mass weapons that they then shared with Russia. And Russia's used tens of thousands of them now hundreds of thousands against the Ukrainians.
Noel King
Is there a way for the US to defend against these Iranian drones without spending so much money?
Michael Horowitz
Absolutely. The US has options. It's just going to take some time to get there. Another country where necessity has been the mother of invention has been Ukraine facing down the, you know, Russian invaders now for four years.
Sponsor/Advertiser
So that is how you stop an Iranian drone. That's the Ukrainian made Sting interceptor drone that flies over 300 kilometers per hour.
Ukrainian Operator
Drones like this destroyed more than 1,000 Russian shahed and other drones in just four months. One operator says using a model called the Sting, he managed to shoot down 11 Russian attack drones.
Michael Horowitz
And because Ukraine is the victim of dozens to hundreds of launches of these shaheds almost every day, Ukraine has pioneered lower cost air defense systems like using even less expensive drones for example, to take out those $35,000 drones or even some cases using old like World War II style anti aircraft guns. The issue is getting enough of them scaled and in place. And the US was already experimenting with some of these cheaper Ukrainian defenses. So the US has just more options essentially to defend against these Iranian attacks.
Noel King
If a fairly cheap unmanned drone can overwhelm a, you know, billion dollar aircraft carrier, does the US need to start rethinking the way it fights wars?
Michael Horowitz
100%. The plan to rely only on these exquisite, expensive, hard to produce weapons is no longer going to be enough for the United States. That would especially be true in a war against the most sophisticated potential adversaries the United States could face, like China or Russia. Instead said what the United States needs to pursue is what's called a high low mix of forces. Some of those high end systems, these best in the world like Tomahawk missiles and F35s and things that the United States has been pioneered and worked on for a generation, but then also a new wave of these lower cost systems that need to be treated not as the kind of thing you might hold on for 50 years, but things that are cheaper, more disposable and that are upgraded on a regular basis. So that high low mix is going to be critical to the ability of the United States to succeed moving forward.
Noel King
So this war is actually changing in real time the future of warfare. What do you think war looks like a generation from now?
Michael Horowitz
I mean, the character of warfare is always in flux. And the way that I would think about this is just like the introduction of the machine gun at scale in World War I fundamentally changed the character of warfare. And the machine gun then just became a ubiquitous weapon. Everybody had machine guns and then In World War II it was the tank. And everywhere since then there have been tanks. What we are now seeing between the Russia Ukraine war and this war with Iran is these one way attack drones. It's not that they're the only things that militaries need, but these are now just going to be part of the arsenal moving forward. And if you don't have them and if you can't defend against them, you're going to be in trouble.
Noel King
Michael Horowitz of UPenn and the Council on Foreign Relations, Hadi Mwagdi produced today's show. Jolie Meyers edited, Patrick Boyd is our engineer and Andrea Lopez Crusado. Tony checks the facts. I'm Noel King. It's Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from Framer. These days if you're a business owner, you should have a website that helps your business grow, certainly. But if updates to your site are feeling harder than they should, Framer is the shortcut you've been looking for. Framer's website builder that can transform your dot com. They say they've helped thousands of businesses from early stage startups to Fortune 500s build better websites faster. Framer is an enterprise grade no code website builder used by teams at companies like Perplexity and Miro to move faster. With real time collaboration, a robot, robust CMS with everything you need for a great SEO and advanced analytics that include integrated AEB testing, your designers and marketers are empowered to build and maximize your.com from day one changes to your Framer site go live to the web in seconds with one click without help from engineering. Whether you want to launch a new site, test a few landing pages, or migrate your full.com framer has programs for startups, scale ups, large enterprises to make going from idea to live site as easy and fast as possible. You can learn how you can get more out of your website from a framer specialist or get started building for free today at framer. Com. Explain for 30% off a Framer Pro annual plan. That's framer.com explained. For 30% off framer.com explained. Rules and restrictions may apply.
Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – “Attack of the Drones” (March 23, 2026)
This episode of Today, Explained dives into the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare in the Middle East, focusing on the U.S.-Iran war, the limitations of high-tech interceptors, and the rise of cheap, easily produced attack drones. Host Noel King is joined by Vox’s Josh Keating and Michael Horowitz, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to examine how technology, economics, and strategy are reshaping conflicts. Key questions explored include whether the U.S. can sustain its high-tech war effort, how Iran’s resourcefulness threatens superior militaries, and what the future of warfare might look like.
“This is a missile war. This is a war fought not by ground troops, but by missiles and drones being fired through the air.” — Josh Keating [02:41]
“President Trump said there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions. And that's simply not the case.” — Michael Horowitz [03:56]
“If you think about what these are, it's basically shooting down a bullet with another bullet. And so the fact that we have the technology to do that is pretty amazing. But these are pricey items.” — Josh Keating [06:09]
“Even with... advanced technology... there really are still material constraints on the projection of US power... we still do live in a real world with real physical constraints.” — Josh Keating [11:35]
“A drone in and of itself would never take out an American aircraft carrier. They're just too small. But a lot of them could.” — Michael Horowitz [17:27]
“If Iran is firing a $35,000 Shaheed 136 at the United States and the United States is shooting it down with a weapon that costs anywhere between $1 million per shot and $4 million per shot, you do not need to be a defense planner to understand that that cost curve is in the wrong direction.” — Michael Horowitz [20:26]
“The high–low mix is going to be critical to the ability of the United States to succeed moving forward.” — Michael Horowitz [26:29]
The episode provides a deep, nuanced exploration of how drone and missile warfare is fundamentally reshaping the Middle East conflict and global military strategy. With chilling clarity, the guests explain that raw technological superiority is no longer enough: numbers, cost, and adaptability will determine the outcome of both present and future conflicts. The U.S., Iran, and the world’s militaries confront a new era where “attack of the drones” is not just a headline, but the reality—and it’s here to stay.