Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – “Attack of the Drones” (March 23, 2026)
Episode Overview
This episode of Today, Explained dives into the rapidly evolving nature of modern warfare in the Middle East, focusing on the U.S.-Iran war, the limitations of high-tech interceptors, and the rise of cheap, easily produced attack drones. Host Noel King is joined by Vox’s Josh Keating and Michael Horowitz, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to examine how technology, economics, and strategy are reshaping conflicts. Key questions explored include whether the U.S. can sustain its high-tech war effort, how Iran’s resourcefulness threatens superior militaries, and what the future of warfare might look like.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Disinformation & Escalation
- President Trump claimed breakthroughs in talks with Iran; Iranian officials denied such conversations.
- “President Trump said there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions. And that's simply not the case.”
— Michael Horowitz [03:56]
- “President Trump said there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions. And that's simply not the case.”
2. The War of Attrition: Missiles and Drones
- The war is characterized not by ground troops but by an unprecedented exchange of missiles and drones.
- “This is really kind of turning into a sort of war of attrition.... This is a war fought not by ground troops, but by missiles and drones being fired through the air.”
— Josh Keating [02:41]
- “This is really kind of turning into a sort of war of attrition.... This is a war fought not by ground troops, but by missiles and drones being fired through the air.”
- Both sides face a logistics and math problem: Iran’s missile/drone reserves vs. U.S. and allied interceptor stockpiles.
- U.S./Israeli airstrikes have significantly depleted Iran’s offensive arsenal:
- “Ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90% since the start of the conflict.”
— U.S. Military Official [03:30]
- “Ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90% since the start of the conflict.”
3. Interceptor Shortages & Cost Imbalance
- Interceptor missiles are expensive and in short supply, while Iran’s attacks are relatively cheap.
- Example: A single U.S. interceptor can cost between $500,000 and $4 million; Iran’s drones can cost as little as $35,000.
- “If Iran is firing a $35,000 Shaheed 136 at the United States and the United States is shooting it down with a weapon that costs anywhere between $1 million... and $4 million per shot, you do not need to be a defense planner to understand that that cost curve is in the wrong direction.”
— Michael Horowitz [20:26]
- “If Iran is firing a $35,000 Shaheed 136 at the United States and the United States is shooting it down with a weapon that costs anywhere between $1 million... and $4 million per shot, you do not need to be a defense planner to understand that that cost curve is in the wrong direction.”
- The U.S. reportedly burned through $2.4 billion worth of Patriot interceptors in just five days.
— Josh Keating [06:09] - The cost asymmetry could affect not just this theater, but also U.S. preparedness in other global conflicts.
4. Wider Regional Impact
- Iranian missiles and drones are targeting not just Israel and U.S. forces, but also Gulf states (UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia), threatening critical infrastructure and global energy security.
- “Actually, one of the surprises of this war has been that they're actually firing more missiles at those countries than they are at Israel. And they're firing at US bases throughout the region as well.”
— Josh Keating [05:30]
5. How Long Can Each Side Hold Out?
- U.S. interceptor shortages almost forced bases like Qatar’s to run out entirely, but pressure has eased as Iranian launches slow — possibly because of depleted stocks or Iranian restraint.
- Iran may be rationing missile/drone use, holding back for potential future escalations, mirroring Hezbollah’s sudden surge in rocket attacks after apparent inactivity.
- “So my guess is it's a combination... there is a deliberate strategy where they're sort of parceling these out and they don't want to run out.”
— Josh Keating [08:55]
- “So my guess is it's a combination... there is a deliberate strategy where they're sort of parceling these out and they don't want to run out.”
6. Signal to Global Adversaries
- Other U.S. adversaries (Russia, China, North Korea) are closely watching American munition shortages, potentially probing for advantage elsewhere.
- “Even with the sheer scale of money that the US spends on its military... we still do live in a real world with real physical constraints.”
— Josh Keating [11:35]
- “Even with the sheer scale of money that the US spends on its military... we still do live in a real world with real physical constraints.”
- Movements of major U.S. military assets (like aircraft carriers) are symbolic of resource strain.
7. Rise of Cheap Attack Drones
- Iran’s “one-way” attack drones (e.g., Shaheed 136) are likened to cheap, precise cruise missiles and can be manufactured on a mass scale, often using commercial parts.
- “These drones are capable of that almost exact same level of accuracy [as cruise missiles].... Iran is using them to do things like target American air defense radars... government buildings... critical infrastructure.”
— Michael Horowitz [17:00]
- “These drones are capable of that almost exact same level of accuracy [as cruise missiles].... Iran is using them to do things like target American air defense radars... government buildings... critical infrastructure.”
- The mass use of such drones poses a new threat—especially in “saturation” attacks that could overwhelm high-value targets (like U.S. aircraft carriers).
8. Limitations of Air Defense
- While the U.S. and Israel have destroyed many Iranian launch sites for missiles, drones can be launched from almost anywhere, making total defense extremely difficult.
- “The challenge is that these drones you could kind of launch from anywhere. Like you could launch them from the back of a pickup truck.”
— Michael Horowitz [22:17]
- “The challenge is that these drones you could kind of launch from anywhere. Like you could launch them from the back of a pickup truck.”
9. Sanctioned Iran’s Ingenuity
- Despite decades of sanctions and economic woes, Iran has become a pioneer in producing cheap, precise, long-range weapons—and has exported these to allies like Russia.
- “Necessity is the mother of invention. Iran... was a pioneer in developing these low-cost, long-range, precise mass weapons.”
— Michael Horowitz [22:48]
- “Necessity is the mother of invention. Iran... was a pioneer in developing these low-cost, long-range, precise mass weapons.”
10. Future of Defense: The ‘High–Low’ Mix
- The U.S. military has traditionally invested in limited numbers of highly advanced weapons. This model is now questioned, as quantity and disposability may matter more in drone-heavy wars.
- “The plan to rely only on these exquisite, expensive, hard to produce weapons is no longer going to be enough for the United States. That would especially be true in a war against the most sophisticated potential adversaries...”
— Michael Horowitz [25:31]
- “The plan to rely only on these exquisite, expensive, hard to produce weapons is no longer going to be enough for the United States. That would especially be true in a war against the most sophisticated potential adversaries...”
- A “high–low mix” is needed: top-tier systems plus large quantities of cheaper, less exquisite but rapidly upgradable assets.
11. Warfare’s Next Chapter
- Modern drone warfare is now a permanent part of military arsenals, akin to the emergence of the machine gun or the tank in past centuries.
- “The character of warfare is always in flux.... What we are now seeing... is these one-way attack drones... are now just going to be part of the arsenal moving forward.”
— Michael Horowitz [26:39]
- “The character of warfare is always in flux.... What we are now seeing... is these one-way attack drones... are now just going to be part of the arsenal moving forward.”
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
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“This is a missile war. This is a war fought not by ground troops, but by missiles and drones being fired through the air.” — Josh Keating [02:41]
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“President Trump said there's an unlimited supply of missiles and interceptors and munitions. And that's simply not the case.” — Michael Horowitz [03:56]
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“If you think about what these are, it's basically shooting down a bullet with another bullet. And so the fact that we have the technology to do that is pretty amazing. But these are pricey items.” — Josh Keating [06:09]
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“Even with... advanced technology... there really are still material constraints on the projection of US power... we still do live in a real world with real physical constraints.” — Josh Keating [11:35]
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“A drone in and of itself would never take out an American aircraft carrier. They're just too small. But a lot of them could.” — Michael Horowitz [17:27]
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“If Iran is firing a $35,000 Shaheed 136 at the United States and the United States is shooting it down with a weapon that costs anywhere between $1 million per shot and $4 million per shot, you do not need to be a defense planner to understand that that cost curve is in the wrong direction.” — Michael Horowitz [20:26]
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“The high–low mix is going to be critical to the ability of the United States to succeed moving forward.” — Michael Horowitz [26:29]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- [00:00] Disinformation and “productive conversations” disputed by Iran
- [02:31] War as a battle of means: drones, missiles, and costly interceptors
- [05:04] Iran’s regional retaliation: attacks on Gulf states and critical infrastructure
- [06:09] The economics of anti-missile defense and looming shortages
- [07:29] Can the U.S. and Iran “wait each other out”?
- [08:55] Evidence of Iranian stockpiling and strategic restraint
- [10:14] Global ramifications: U.S. vulnerabilities noticed by adversaries
- [16:06] Focus on mass drone warfare with Michael Horowitz
- [18:57] Iran’s “infinite” drones; the manufacturing challenge
- [21:29] The cost curve dilemma: U.S. vs. cheap massed Iranian drones
- [24:03] Cheaper defenses: learning from Ukraine, adoption of “low-end” solutions
- [25:31] Future military strategy: necessity of a “high–low” mix
- [26:39] The irreversible shift in warfare: mass drones as the new normal
Conclusion
The episode provides a deep, nuanced exploration of how drone and missile warfare is fundamentally reshaping the Middle East conflict and global military strategy. With chilling clarity, the guests explain that raw technological superiority is no longer enough: numbers, cost, and adaptability will determine the outcome of both present and future conflicts. The U.S., Iran, and the world’s militaries confront a new era where “attack of the drones” is not just a headline, but the reality—and it’s here to stay.