Today, Explained – "Bettor Living Through Polymarket"

Podcast: Today, Explained (Vox)
Date: December 3, 2025
Hosts: Noel King, Sean Rameswaram
Guests: Jen Vietchner (NYMag), John Herman (NYMag)
Episode Theme:
Exploring the rise of Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-powered global prediction market, its origins, controversies, legalization, and implications for politics and society in the US.

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the world of Polymarket—a platform where users bet with cryptocurrency on outcomes ranging from election results to pop culture—and examines the broader ramifications as prediction markets become mainstream. Hosts and expert guests dissect the founder’s Silicon Valley ambitions, the platform’s journey through legal gray zones, the sociopolitical risks and opportunities of political betting, and what happens as wagering seeps from sports into the heart of democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Polymarket: What Is It and Who Built It?

• Shane Copeland, Founder:

  • Dropped out of NYU after just one semester to pursue entrepreneurship.
  • Started Polymarket during the pandemic, working from his own bathroom in NYC.
  • Emulates tech billionaires, obsessively studying figures like Zuckerberg and Kalanick.
  • Self-confidence and vision:

    "Believing 100% in his own potential to become a billionaire, which... has recently proven true."
    — Jen Vietchner [03:25]

• Purpose of Polymarket:

  • To harness the "wisdom of the crowd" for accurate forecasting via decentralized betting.
  • Allows anyone (with crypto and VPN, if in the US) to wager on nearly any future event: politics, sports, and beyond.
  • “It’s the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball.”
    — Shane Copeland [04:17]

2. How Polymarket Works in Practice

• User Experience:

  • Real-time prediction on events—e.g., betting on whether Jerome Powell will say "Good afternoon" at a Fed meeting.
  • "There's this whale on Polymarket who bet over $37,000 that Jerome Powell will start the meeting by saying 'good afternoon.'" [04:57]

• Wisdom of the Crowd Example:

  • Polymarket forecasted President Biden dropping out of the race ahead of mainstream media.
  • “If you looked at polymarket, it was heavily leaning towards him dropping out right away...and polymarket essentially...kind of had that news a bit earlier, if you take that as news.”
    — Jen Vietchner [06:21]
  • On 2024 election night, Polymarket reflected a near-certain Trump victory hours before traditional outlets.

    “Polymarket had Donald Trump at almost 100%, much before the results were even in.”
    — Jen Vietchner [07:00]

• Legal Boundaries and User Workarounds:

  • US users skirted bans via VPNs due to legal restrictions.
  • “I had to download a VPN, basically log in as if I were in Spain. And then I traded 20 bucks on the website and I was betting on silly things...”
    — Jen Vietchner [07:25]
  • “At the time, it certainly was illegal for me as a US Person to be betting on that.” [07:41]
  • The fun, gamified interface: confetti eruptions on bets, ease of casual betting.

3. Legal Challenges and Market Boom

• Regulatory Struggles:

  • The CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) quickly targeted Polymarket for running unauthorized prediction markets.
  • Polymarket settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million, agreed to exclude US traders; US-based users needed workarounds to participate [10:12].

    “People say breaking the law, it’s like, which law?...better to ask forgiveness than permission.”
    — Shane Copeland, paraphrased by Jen Vietchner [10:07]

• Deregulation and Investment:

  • Trump administration relaxed restrictions, allowing Polymarket to operate legally in the US.
  • NYSE parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, invested $2 billion, boosting valuation to $8 billion [10:44].

    “That’s going to bring a huge market of people in the US who want to trade on it because obviously the US is the biggest financial market in the world.”
    — Jen Vietchner [11:53]

4. Prediction Markets Shift from Sports to Politics

• Why Is Political Betting More Controversial?

  • Sports betting overcame initial resistance and is now normalized, but politics is different due to potential consequences and the perception of undermining democracy.

    “With politics, for decades it has been a way to sort of judge other people’s consumption, to say…you are behaving as though you’re in a fandom or maybe even…cultish about your politics…”
    — John Herman [15:25]

  • Betting on politics risks turning civic engagement into akin to sports fandom, diluting seriousness and increasing tribalism [16:54].

• Risks of Corruption and Manipulation:

  • Possibility of people betting on (and influencing) real-world high-stakes outcomes, up to and including violence.

    “You have a vision in recent elections of... people who have basically removed themselves from the democratic process to engage instead in a market process.”
    — John Herman [18:07]

  • Worst-case: incentivizing criminal action for massive bets (“assassination market” scenarios).

    “Someone has the opportunity to win $10 million. If a candidate is assassinated, there's an enormous incentive to do a very bad thing.”
    — Noel King [19:34] “It would work...these actual platforms in the world have prohibitions on that. But yeah, I think it’s completely plausible...someone might manifest events in order to settle a polymarket…”
    — John Herman [19:48]

• Parallels with Sports:

  • As betting scandals eroded trust in professional sports, expanded betting in politics could further erode public faith in electoral outcomes.

    “If people are losing trust in sports, it seems possible that if we bet on elections, we could be looking within a couple of years at people losing faith in the outcome of elections.”
    — Noel King [21:14] “None of those sensations are quite the same as losing a bunch of money on a bet… That is a new flavor of interaction with politics.”
    — John Herman [21:19]

5. Potential Upsides: Engagement and Information

• Could Prediction Markets Boost Civic Engagement?
  • While John Herman doubts betting stokes deeper involvement, he concedes the platforms function as valuable crowd-sourced aggregators of information:

    “Prediction markets, as just an additional source of information in the world, are really interesting and I think useful.”
    — John Herman [22:58]

  • Encourages a reevaluation of the relationship between betting (“skin in the game”) and voting/rational civic action.

6. Politics, Money, and Influence—The Trump Factor

• Embrace by Trump Allies:

  • Trump’s associates (e.g., Don Jr.) have advised both Polymarket and competitor Kalshi.
  • Concerns about those with nonpublic information (like the Trump family) exploiting markets for profit:

    “If you are in the family that has arguably more non public important information than any other family in the world…here is a situation where it’s basically not illegal to bet on something where you know the outcome. That’s just your advantage.”
    — John Herman [24:26]

• Corporate America Takes Notice:

  • CEOs jokingly reference prediction markets during earnings calls, showing just how entwined markets and information flows have become.
  • Example: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, during an earnings call, ensured certain keywords were spoken to affect applicable bets [25:07].

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “It’s the most accurate thing we have as mankind right now until someone else creates some sort of super crystal ball.”
  — Shane Copeland [04:17] (also restated at [14:57])

• "If you looked at polymarket, it was heavily leaning towards [Biden] dropping out right away...which surprised a lot of people. And that, you know, eventually came true."
  — Jen Vietchner [06:21]

• "People say breaking the law, it’s like, which law? ... so if anything, it’s incompatible."
  — Shane Copeland [10:07]

• "If people are losing trust in sports, it seems possible that if we bet on elections, we could be looking within a couple of years at people losing faith in the outcome of elections."
  — Noel King [21:14]

• “It turns everyone into speculator rather than a voter… it potentially just replaces...problematic ways that they interact with elections...with something that is just like reading the financial news...it represents, if enough people do it, kind of an exit from politics.”
  — John Herman [18:07]

• “Here is a situation where it's basically not illegal to bet on something where you know the outcome. That's just your advantage.”
  — John Herman [24:26]

Important Timestamps

• [02:26] Jen Vietchner outlines Shane Copeland's origins and motivation
• [03:02] Shane Copeland explains prediction markets’ dispute-settling feature
• [04:12] How Polymarket harnesses the wisdom of crowds
• [05:53] Example of Polymarket predicting real-world events ahead of media
• [07:25] Jen Vietchner describes using the platform (with a VPN) herself
• [09:14–10:44] Legal challenges; CFTC crackdown; settlement; workarounds
• [10:44–11:53] Legalization and massive new investment
• [15:08] John Herman discusses the unique discomfort with political betting
• [19:34] Conversation about worst-case scenarios—assassination markets
• [21:14] Sports betting parallels, trust erosion in both spheres
• [22:58] Debate over whether prediction markets drive political engagement
• [24:09–25:44] Trump admin involvement and ethics of insider betting in politics

Tone and Language

• Informal, lively, lightly irreverent: Frequent jokes, pop culture references, and a sense of fascination mixed with concern.
• Intellectually probing but accessible: Explainers balance technical detail with relatable examples and hypotheticals.
• Dialogue-driven: Direct attribution, candid anecdotes, and clear speaker transitions.

Summary Takeaway

Polymarket’s rise illustrates the accelerating collision of tech innovation, deregulation, and speculation within US politics and society. While proponents tout prediction markets as the best collective measure of future events, critics warn of dire consequences—from eroding public trust in democracy to encouraging manipulation or even violence. As legitimization and investment pour in, the US heads into uncharted waters, with the boundaries between engagement, entertainment, information, and influence blurrier than ever.