Today, Explained: Breaking Up with Ukraine

Release Date: March 4, 2025
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Eric Levitz
Guest: Shashank Joshi, Defense Editor at Leading Magazine, The Economist

1. U.S. Suspension of Military Aid to Ukraine

The episode opens with Sean Rameswaram announcing a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy:

"It's official the United States is breaking up with Ukraine. Last night, the president suspended military aid to the country. That's about 1 billion in arms Ukraine isn't getting until it commits to negotiating peace with Russia..." (00:00)

This move marks a pivotal change in U.S. support for Ukraine amidst its ongoing conflict with Russia. The suspension follows a recent Oval Office meeting between former President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, which included unconventional discussions, such as playing cards.

2. Political Reactions Within the U.S.

Eric Levitz and Shashank Joshi delve into the diverse reactions from the American political spectrum:

• Left, Moderates, and Globalists: These groups largely viewed the Trump-Zelensky meeting through a critical lens, questioning the sincerity and implications of suspending aid.

• Right-Wing Response:
  Shashank Joshi explains that the American right, particularly the MAGA faction, welcomed the suspension:

  "The American right responded as it responds to most things that Donald Trump does very positively... Former Trump adviser Steve Bannon lauded the administration as giving a masterclass and how to deal with an entitled punk." (02:30)

This reaction stems from a broader skepticism within the MAGA base towards foreign interventions, viewing the suspension as a stance against what they perceive as "warmongering Washington foreign policy."

3. The Right's Perception of Zelensky and Geopolitics

The conversation shifts to understanding why certain right-wing factions in the U.S. may distrust or disdain President Zelensky:

• Cultural and Ideological Alignment:
  Shashank Joshi highlights a segment of American social conservatives who admire Vladimir Putin for his stance against Western cultural liberalism:

  "There's a part of the American right that simply likes and supports Vladimir Putin, sees him as kind of representing God's side in this new cultural cold war..." (04:35)

• Marginal Pro-Putin Support:
  Despite these sentiments, Joshi notes that only about 8% of Americans hold a positive view of Putin, indicating that pro-Putin sentiments are relatively marginal but overrepresented among Republican elites:

  "He's a very marginal force on the level of the American population as a whole... but overrepresented among Republican elites." (06:13)

• Conservative Narratives Against Zelensky:
  Influential figures like Joe Rogan have propagated negative narratives about Zelensky, including unfounded claims about personal misconduct and accusations of instigating broader conflicts:

  "Zelensky is basically trying to orchestrate World War Three." (07:19)

4. American Public Opinion and Support for Ukraine

Levitz addresses the broader American perspective:

• Declining Support: There is a noticeable decline in American support for involvement in the Ukraine war, influenced by the shifting stances within the Republican Party.
• Comparison with Previous Administrations: Despite this shift, current support metrics show President Trump handling the situation "considerably better" than President Biden did (08:31).

5. Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal from Aid

The discussion explores the potential consequences of the U.S. halting its military aid:

• Short-Term Effects:
  Joshi posits that while Ukraine has sufficient resources to sustain operations through spring or summer, the withdrawal of critical support like air defense systems and intelligence would jeopardize Ukraine’s ability to continue its defense effectively:

  "Ukraine's in trouble... Russia would be able to go over Ukraine more easily... Ukraine would have to stay on the defensive..." (16:08)

• Long-Term Consequences:
  Without U.S. support, Ukraine might face severe military setbacks, potentially leading to a capitulation under resource constraints within a year:

  "Ukraine would be in a very, very difficult place at that point." (16:20)
  However, Levitz cautions against definitive predictions due to the unpredictable nature of warfare.

6. Europe’s Response to the U.S. Policy Shift

Rameswaram inquires about Europe's stance following the U.S. decision:

• Increased European Support:
  Europe is stepping up its aid and defense commitments, recognizing the void left by the U.S. This includes substantial financial instruments like a "150 billion euro loan facility for European defence programs" and potential involvement from the EU’s budget and investment banks:

  "I'm seeing all these new solutions... radical new ways to consider that I haven't seen in the past." (19:39)

• Strategic Reassessment:
  European leaders, including Justin Trudeau, are re-evaluating their defense strategies to compensate for decreased U.S. involvement, seeking to bolster both military and technological collaborations within Europe.

7. Broader Implications for Global Alliances

The discussion broadens to the impact of U.S. foreign policy changes on global alliances:

• Reliability of the U.S. as an Ally:
  Joshi expresses concerns that a shift towards an "America First" mindset compromises the U.S.'s reliability, potentially undermining decades-long alliances:

  "They're saying, what would this administration do if my country came under attack and would they do anything, or would they turn on me and demand I hand over my resources in kind of protection racket." (20:40)

• Strategic Consequences:
  The weakening of alliances could leave the U.S. isolated in its strategic endeavors, diminishing its influence against adversaries like China and Russia:

  "Allies just show up in Iraq and Afghanistan to fight alongside you... that world is gonna crumble and America will be on its own." (24:17)

8. Reflections on U.S. Foreign Policy Under the Current Administration

Towards the end, Levitz reflects on the internal dynamics of the current administration:

• Lack of Coherent Strategy:
  The administration's approach is described as impulsive and lacking strategic coherence, reminiscent of governance by presidential whims rather than calculated policy:

  "Governance by presidential impulse. And there, I think, I'm afraid I can't offer a coherent view of strategy other than a raw assertion of American power, regardless of the costs or consequences or benefits." (24:05)

• Potential Long-Term Effects:
  This unpredictability may lead to diminishing trust among international allies and erode the foundational alliances that have underpinned U.S. global strategy for decades.

Conclusion

The episode "Breaking Up with Ukraine" provides a comprehensive analysis of the U.S. decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine, exploring the political dynamics within the U.S., the reactions from European allies, and the broader implications for global alliances and U.S. foreign policy. Through insightful discussions with Shashank Joshi, the hosts illuminate the complexities and potential repercussions of this pivotal policy shift.

Notable Quotes:

• Sean Rameswaram on U.S.-Ukraine Aid Suspension:
  "It's official the United States is breaking up with Ukraine..." (00:00)

• Shashank Joshi on MAGA Right's View of Putin:
  "There's a part of the American right that simply likes and supports Vladimir Putin..." (04:35)

• Eric Levitz on Potential U.S. Withdrawal Consequences:
  "Ukraine would be in a very, very difficult place at that point." (16:20)

• Shashank Joshi on U.S. Alliance Reliability:
  "What would this administration do if my country came under attack..." (20:40)

This summary captures the essence of the "Breaking Up with Ukraine" episode, providing listeners and readers with a detailed overview of the discussions, insights, and conclusions presented by the hosts and their guest.