
Elon, Vivek and the Department of Government Efficiency want to cut $2 trillion from the federal budget. A libertarian says the only way to do it is to eliminate aid programs altogether.
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Sean Rameswaram
Elon Musk is a funny guy. You can tell because his favorite cryptocurrency is based on a cute dog, a Shiba inu, which inspired the Doge meme, which inspired Dogecoin. I'm sorry if I'm losing you. The point is, it's Elon's fave. In 2021, he hosted Saturday Night Live and plugged it over and over.
Dylan Matthews
And lately, prices have been soaring for cryptos like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and especially Dogecoin.
Chris Edwards
Oh, right.
Sean Rameswaram
He also said he would fund a moon mission entirely with Dogecoin and incessantly tweeted about the crypto. And For a minute, te Tesla was accepting Dogecoin. In 2022, investors got tired of the antics and sued Elon Musk for manipulating the price of the coin. They lost. Elon won. And then Kamala lost. So Elon won again. And now our future president has rewarded Musk's loyalty with an entire government agency named for his favorite meme coin. And as you've probably heard, it's called.
Chris Edwards
The Department of Government Efficiency, or Doge.
Sean Rameswaram
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Kamala Harris
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Chris Edwards
This is today Explained.
Sean Rameswaram
The first thing you need to know about the Department of Government Efficiency is that Trump's put two people in charge of it. So it's off to a great start. Elon is one of them. The other is Vivek Ramaswamy. No relation. We asked Vox's Dylan Matthews to help us understand what they intend to do. But first we asked him where he stands on the federal government.
Chris Edwards
Any sufficiently large organization is going to have inefficiencies. And there are definitely inefficiencies in federal spending. But almost everything that the federal government spends money on is pretty non controversial, which is why we keep spending money on it.
Sean Rameswaram
Mmm. But that's not how Elon and Vivek feel.
Vivek Ramaswamy
No.
Dylan Matthews
It's no secret that it is a fourth branch of government, the administrative state that makes most of the rules, that creates a federal bureaucracy that's hampering our economy. If a current trend of strangulation by.
Chris Edwards
Overregulation is not turned around, we will never get to Mars. It just will be illegal. I mean, they're private sector guys, right? Like they're all about arguing that old sectors are inefficient and need to be disrupted.
Kamala Harris
How much do you think we can.
Dylan Matthews
Rip out of this wasted $6.5 trillion Harris Biden budget?
Sean Rameswaram
Well, I think we can do at least 2 trillion.
Chris Edwards
Yeah, I'm skeptical. There's an old saying in Washington that the, the U.S. federal government is an insurance company that has an army attached to it. And I think this is, this is a good way to broadly think about what it spends money on.
Sean Rameswaram
And how much does this insurance company with an army attached to it cost? You say they want to eliminate 2 trillion of the budget. How many trillions is the budget?
Chris Edwards
So in fiscal year 2023, we spent $6.1 trillion on various things. Of that, a little under 700 billion was interest. So that's just debt we had and we had to pay interest on it. So for actual programs for people, it's more like 5.4 trillion. So 2 trillion out of that is over a third. It's a really, really big number.
Sean Rameswaram
Okay. And so a huge chunk of it is just debt service. But what is the actual spending? What's the largest share of that? 6 ish trillion.
Chris Edwards
So biggest single share is Social Security. That's 1.3 trillion. That's benefits for retirees, survivors, people with disabilities that they've paid into. And so 1.3 out of, out of 6.1 total trillion. And that's the biggest single program, and it's one that Trump has promised not to cut.
Kamala Harris
And we will always protect your Social Security.
Sean Rameswaram
And when you think about what this Doge outfit wants to do, they're not talking about getting rid of Social Security, are they?
Chris Edwards
No, they're very insistent that they're not and that they're, they're not trying to aim for Social Security and Medicare, which is the second biggest program. Those are big programs for seniors.
Kamala Harris
We're not touching Medicare. We want to keep Medicare. We're not touching Social Security.
Chris Edwards
One thing that was unusual about Donald Trump both in 2016 and 2024 is he promised not to cut them. After you had Paul Ryan talking about, like, very serious plans to cut them, do you consider it possible to arrive.
Vivek Ramaswamy
At a fiscal policy and plan that.
Chris Edwards
Reduces the deficit without touching Medicare and.
Dylan Matthews
Social Security or military spending?
Kamala Harris
No, you can't.
Vivek Ramaswamy
It's just a mathematical impossibility.
Chris Edwards
And so Trump wanted to be this different kind of Republican who wouldn't threaten these programs. The reason that people like Paul Ryan wanted to cut them is that together they make up about a third of the overall budget. And it's just very hard to make serious cuts while declaring them off limits.
Vivek Ramaswamy
If you do not tackle the drivers of our debt, which are entitlements, you.
Kamala Harris
Cannot balance the budget in the future.
Chris Edwards
And pay down the debt.
Kamala Harris
It's just not possible.
Sean Rameswaram
And just to help people understand the full picture here, what are we spending on Medicare as a country?
Chris Edwards
So 2023, we spent 839 billion. So less than Social Security, but a lot. And Social Security is increasing in its cost just because the population is aging. More people are retired and taking benefits. Medicare is growing both because of that and because medical costs tend to grow quicker than other costs. And so it's smaller than Social Security. Now. It might overtake Social Security as we get new treatments, we get new kinds of surgeries, new ways to extend people's lives that are great, but cost money.
Sean Rameswaram
Okay, so now we're into the hundreds of billions of dollars of expenditures. You mentioned that debt service was. Was in this company. What about defense spending? Isn't that a huge chunk? Where does that fall in?
Chris Edwards
Defense spending is huge. That was 805 billion in 2023. So just behind Medicare in terms of total expenses. But almost no Republican wants to cut it outright. And so they might talk about finding areas of waste, defense contractors that charge 30 bucks for a wrench, that kind of thing. But it's unlikely to be a major target.
Sean Rameswaram
Okay, so then what are we talking about? So we've gone through, you know, Social Security, Medicare, defense, debt service, things that sound sort of untouchable or not really of much interest to Trump, Elon, and Vivek. What's left?
Chris Edwards
So I think the biggest category is programs for poor people, bluntly so the most important here is Medicaid, which is our program for people in poverty and many disabled people. That's about $616 billion in federal money. It's a federal state program. So states kick in a lot on top of that, but that's the next biggest chunk after Social Security, Medicare, defense. And it's historically been a big target of cut proposals. When Trump was trying to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017, most of Obamacare is an expansion of Medicaid. And so what he was talking about were very serious Medicaid cuts. And I would expect something similar. His budget chief is this guy named Russ Fat, who has been putting out budgets sort of during the Biden years of what he wants to do. And those budgets include in a third cut to Medicaid. He wants to slash the whole program by a third. I don't know if Trump is going to go that far, but his own budgets last time around included very serious Medicaid cuts, and I would expect the same this time around. And after Medicaid, we spend about 450 billion on what are called income security programs. These are things like food stamps, tax credits, like the child tax credit and the earned income credit, broadly, a lot of programs that support low income people's incomes. It also includes some things for veterans which are unlikely to be cut. But that broad category of income supports for poor people has been a major target as well. And food stamps in particular, Trump tried to cut repeatedly last time and are likely to be a major target again this time. So I would say they're not politically easy things to cut, because advocates for poor people, the whole Democratic Party are going to fight you tooth and nail on this. But they're historically easier to cut than Social Security or Medicare or defense spending. And so I think are likelier to be top targets.
Sean Rameswaram
And if the spaceman and the young man figure out some, you know, huge cuts to welfare programs in the federal government, do they have the power to slash spending?
Chris Edwards
I do not think that the White House on its own has the power to cut federal spending. Congress has the power of the purse. Traditionally, the way this has always worked is that the president will put in a budget request outlining what he wants the budget to look like. Congress will completely ignore that and pass what they want to pass. And then what ultimately is enacted is much closer to what Congress wants than what the President wants. However, Russ Fought, the budget director who Trump recently reappointed, has been pretty vocal that he thinks the President has what's called an impoundment power, or the power to refuse to spend money that Congress has appropriated. If they're right, and if they assert this power and it goes all the way to the Supreme Court, then Trump on his own would have the power to just ignore spending bills from Congress. And if he say wanted to cut Medicaid by some number of billions of dollars, he could just withhold spending for the programs that he doesn't want to fund there. That would be a quite radical expansion of presidential power. And I bring it up only because senior members of Trump's team have been very vocal that they think he has this power. But it will require a pretty dramatic assertion of authority, a very long court battle before anything like that comes up.
Sean Rameswaram
So what do you think that means for Doge and their goal to cut 2 trillion?
Chris Edwards
They are not going to cut $2 trillion. I will bet any amount of money. If Elon wants to set up a crypto deal with me and say I bet $5 million that I for sure don't have, but I bet you $5 million that we're going to pass $2 trillion in annual spending cuts, I will sign that and take out whatever loan shark loans necessary because I will win that bet. I think they will come up with a list of smaller appropriations that they think are wasteful or ill advised. They'll come up with government contracts that they think are for too much money or wasteful. I will say this for Elon, that he does have a lot of experience with government procurement through SpaceX. I would guess that the quantity of cuts we're going to be looking at is in the tens of billions rather than hundreds or trillions. But one thing I have learned is that I felt like I was able to predict what Joe Biden would do. I felt like I was able to predict what Barack Obama would do. I felt like I was able to predict what Paul Ryan would do. I have been wrong again and again about what Donald Trump will do and his team. And so while 2 trillion I'm rolling out, there's a wide range of possibilities here.
Sean Rameswaram
You can read Dylan Matthews at Vox. I certainly do when we're back on Today Explained someone who is a glass half full kind of guy when it comes to cutting 2 trillion.
Kamala Harris
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Sean Rameswaram
Explained.
Vivek Ramaswamy
See you.
Sean Rameswaram
Chris Edwards is with Cato, which means he's a libertarian, which means he'd love to see $2 trillion or probably even more cut from the federal budget. He's super into the concept of Doge, but he says he would add another E at the end of the name. So I asked him how he'd pronounce that.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Do I say Doge? Double E, perhaps.
Sean Rameswaram
Doge.
Vivek Ramaswamy
You know, the Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, you know, they've proposed their Department of Government Efficiency. Well, to solve the $2 trillion federal deficit problem, we not only need more efficiency, we need eliminations. So while people might envision the federal government and it's the 2 million federal civil servants we have working more efficiently, that's great. And fine. They do need to work more efficiently. We also need to eliminate programs.
Sean Rameswaram
You seem to believe that there are eliminations here. They may not get us to 2 trillion, but if you pull a bit from here and pull a bit from there, you're going to start making progress. Tell us where you want to pull from.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Well, Trump unfortunately has said he wouldn't cut the two biggest programs in the federal budget, Social Security and Medicare. He's probably not going to cut defense either because his party traditionally supports big defense spending. So those are the three biggest programs in the federal budget. So what else can you cut? Well, the next biggest pot of money in the federal budget is aid from the federal government to state and local governments. That's $1.1 trillion of spending every year. So this is Aid for highways, K12 education, Medicaid, housing, community development, that sort of stuff. I think that stuff can be cut. I think it should be cut. I think state governments can pick up the slack. State governments are actually in a very strong budget position these days with large rainy day funds. So I think the federal government can and should cut this flow of money from the federal government down to state government. So then the states can, you know, can, can respond as they please. They can raise taxes, they can cut other spending. State governments are required to balance their budgets. So that's a good thing. The federal government will cut the subsidies. Then state governments can handle the fallout and figure out how they want to reorganize their budgets.
Sean Rameswaram
How much would these cuts be felt by people across the country, by voters, by Americans? You know, cuts to housing, community development, highways. I mean, I realize that states have their own budgets and can fund these things, but not all states are created equal. Not all states have surplus funds to use to pick up the slack for the federal government. Right?
Vivek Ramaswamy
No, that's right. And every state would respond in differential sorts of ways. Diversity. I think that's a good thing. You know, if the federal government cut a welfare program like public housing, you know, New York might decide to fund its own public housing, but say Texas might decide, hey, we're going to privatize our public housing. But I think those differential kind of responses by the states would be a good thing. I think that when the federal government cuts aid to the states, it should phase it in. It should, you know, phase it in over, say, five years to give state legislatures the time to plan, you know, how they're going to respond and whether they're going to cover the funding for these programs themselves. But you know, currently the Federal government has 1,300 different federal aid to state programs. This is a massive web of programs that has grown, particularly since the 1960s. I don't think these programs have worked particularly well. They're extremely bureaucratic when you involve two or three levels of government in funding programs. I think we'd have a much more efficient government at all levels if we got the federal government out of these properly state activities.
Sean Rameswaram
We know you libertarians love to eliminate programs. Are you envisioning a United States that maybe doesn't have programs that support public housing, maybe doesn't have a federally funded transit, or maybe doesn't have a corporation for public broadcasting? Is that what you'd really like to see?
Vivek Ramaswamy
I would like to see that. And over the last century, power has become centralized in Washington, in my view, for no particular reason. And I'll give you a story about that, Sean. So I grew up in Canada. Canada is a high income democracy. It's a much more decentralized federation than United States. In rough terms, government spending in the United States is 2/3 federal and 1/3 state. Canada is the flip. Canada is only one third federal and two thirds provincial. As an example of that, Canada has no federal Department of Education. And on international test scores, Canadian students do substantially better than American students. So I don't believe you need to centralize some of these activities to have well functioning government. And I think Canada, it's not a great model for some things. I think the current Prime Minister has had lots of problems. However, I think the basic governmental structure of being a decentralized federation is a good model for us to look at.
Sean Rameswaram
And you heard Dylan say that the one thing he's always expecting with Trump and let's say now Doge is the unexpected. Does the unexpected factor here mean that these business minded drain the swamp, let's go to mars types could actually pull something out of the bag to get rid of these programs to even maybe eliminate things that have so far seemingly been political third rails in this country.
Vivek Ramaswamy
There is a tradition of Congress putting together big fancy blue ribbon commissions, writing big reports and then the reports end up on shelves collecting dust. The that is true. However, I think the debt problem is much bigger than it was 10 years ago. I think something that's changed as well is the threat of inflation. You know, we found out during this last election how incredibly unpopular bouts of inflation are. And you know, Republicans have spent the last two years blaming all the inflation on Biden spending.
Kamala Harris
When you spend trillions of dollars, you cause inflation.
Vivek Ramaswamy
And for many of my constituents this is a choice in some cases between putting food on the table and staying warm. This could not be a more challenging problem confronting America. Only 3 in 10Americans approve of the way that Joe Biden is handling inflation. Only 3. Whether or not, you know, you buy that as an economic argument, I think going ahead, Republicans will be scared that if the deficits are too big and the spending is too large, they risk a bout of inflation leading up to the midterms. I think they should be scared of that and I do think that that should be an impetus for them to start making some spending reforms to encourage financial markets that there will be a problem to these massive deficits in Washington. So I think there is a political opening here. Presidents have their most legislative leverage in their first year and I think they need to start cutting in the first year again in order to ward off inflation as well as to actually get something done before the midterms get too close on the political calendar.
Sean Rameswaram
Before we go, I would love to ask you what you think of all the corporate welfare that is going directly to Elon Musk to fund programs like SpaceX.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Well, Elon Musk is an interesting example of someone and you can't deny his incredible entrepreneurial success. But it is also true that he's got a lot of corporate welfare over the years, both at the federal level and at the state and local level. One of the problems with our giant government with its octopus tentacles into everything these days is that every business gets subsidized and it's hard to run a business without going to Washington and pleading for subsidies. So you know that is true about Mosque. I wish. He's got a great car company there. He should wean himself off those federal subsidies.
Chris Edwards
Your money is being wasted and the.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Department of Government Efficiency is going to fix that.
Sean Rameswaram
Chris Edwards, Cato Institute Sean Ramesperum Today Explained Our show today was produced by Halima Shah. She was edited by Aminah Al Saadi, mixed by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers and we were fact checked by Kim Eggleston Asta Manana.
Dylan Matthews
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Chris Edwards
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Today, Explained: Can DOGE Cut $2 Trillion?
Vox Podcast Network | December 4, 2024
Introduction
In the December 4, 2024 episode of Today, Explained, hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King delve into a bold and unconventional proposal spearheaded by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy: the potential elimination of $2 trillion from the United States federal budget. This detailed exploration examines the feasibility, targets, and political ramifications of such significant budget cuts, all under the whimsical banner of "Doge," inspired by Musk's favorite cryptocurrency, Dogecoin.
Elon Musk and the Dogecoin Phenomenon
The episode opens with Sean Rameswaram highlighting Elon Musk's affinity for Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency with origins in a popular internet meme featuring a Shiba Inu dog. Musk's influence on Dogecoin's popularity is undeniable, as evidenced by his promotional appearances and public endorsements:
Sean Rameswaram [00:00]: "Elon Musk is a funny guy. You can tell because his favorite cryptocurrency is based on a cute dog... it's Elon's fave."
Musk's advocacy led to significant price surges for Dogecoin and temporarily saw Tesla accepting the cryptocurrency as payment. However, his relentless promotion also attracted legal challenges:
Sean Rameswaram [00:26]: "He also said he would fund a moon mission entirely with Dogecoin and incessantly tweeted about the crypto."
Despite investor backlash and lawsuits accusing Musk of price manipulation, the courts sided in his favor, reinforcing his influential role in the crypto space.
The Birth of the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge)
Amidst this backdrop, the episode introduces the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, whimsically named "Doge," a nod to Dogecoin. This agency, appointed by then-President Trump, is led by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, aiming to streamline and reduce federal expenditures.
Chris Edwards [02:17]: "The first thing you need to know about the Department of Government Efficiency is that Trump's put two people in charge of it. So it's off to a great start. Elon is one of them. The other is Vivek Ramaswamy."
Understanding the Federal Budget: Current Expenditures
To contextualize the proposed $2 trillion in budget cuts, the podcast provides an overview of the U.S. federal budget, highlighting the largest expenditure categories:
Social Security: $1.3 trillion (04:45)
Chris Edwards [04:45]: "So biggest single share is Social Security... that's the biggest single program, and it's one that Trump has promised not to cut."
Medicare: $839 billion (06:27)
Chris Edwards [06:27]: "In 2023, we spent 839 billion. So less than Social Security, but a lot."
Defense Spending: $805 billion (07:18)
Chris Edwards [07:18]: "Defense spending is huge. That was 805 billion in 2023."
Medicaid: $616 billion (08:00)
Chris Edwards [08:00]: "Most important here is Medicaid... next biggest chunk after Social Security, Medicare, defense."
Income Security Programs: $450 billion (08:00)
Chris Edwards [08:00]: "Income Security Programs... like food stamps, tax credits... a lot of programs that support low income people's incomes."
Proposed Budget Cuts: Feasibility and Targets
The central discussion revolves around the ambitious goal of cutting $2 trillion from the federal budget. Experts weigh in on the likelihood and strategies to achieve such reductions:
Sean Rameswaram [03:28]: "Rip out of this wasted $6.5 trillion Harris Biden budget?"
Dylan Matthews [03:25]: "Any sufficiently large organization is going to have inefficiencies... But almost everything that the federal government spends money on is pretty non-controversial."
Chris Edwards expresses skepticism about the feasibility of achieving $2 trillion in cuts:
Chris Edwards [12:10]: "They are not going to cut $2 trillion. I will bet any amount of money... I think the quantity of cuts we're going to be looking at is in the tens of billions rather than hundreds or trillions."
Conversely, Vivek Ramaswamy outlines potential areas for significant reductions:
Vivek Ramaswamy [18:54]: "The next biggest pot of money in the federal budget is aid from the federal government to state and local governments. That's $1.1 trillion of spending every year... I think state governments can pick up the slack."
Political Implications and Power Dynamics
A crucial aspect of the discussion centers on the constitutional balance of power between the executive and legislative branches. Typically, Congress holds the "power of the purse," making unilateral budget cuts by the president highly contentious and legally challenging:
Chris Edwards [10:32]: "I do not think that the White House on its own has the power to cut federal spending. Congress has the power of the purse... Russ Fought... thinks the President has what's called an impoundment power."
The possibility of the executive branch asserting greater control over federal spending without congressional approval introduces significant legal and political uncertainty.
Impacts on Public Programs and Services
The proposed budget cuts target a variety of public services, each with distinct implications:
Chris Edwards [08:00]: "Medicaid... highly likely to be a major target again this time around."
Vivek Ramaswamy [20:38]: "Think of diversity. I think when the federal government cuts a welfare program like public housing, New York might decide to fund its own public housing, but say Texas might decide... to privatize our public housing."
These cuts could lead to increased disparities in public services across states, depending on local government responses and fiscal health.
Conclusion: Uncertainty and Future Prospects
While the ambition to slash $2 trillion from the federal budget garners attention, experts like Chris Edwards caution against the likelihood of such extensive cuts, predicting more modest reductions focused on eliminating waste rather than dismantling major programs.
Chris Edwards [12:10]: "They are not going to cut $2 trillion... likely to be top targets."
Vivek Ramaswamy remains optimistic, arguing that economic pressures like inflation and mounting deficits create a political opportunity for meaningful spending reforms:
Vivek Ramaswamy [24:20]: "Republicans will be scared that if the deficits are too big and the spending is too large, they risk a bout of inflation... Presidents have their most legislative leverage in their first year."
Ultimately, the episode underscores the complexities and challenges inherent in overhauling the federal budget, highlighting the interplay between economic imperatives, political will, and institutional constraints.
Notable Quotes with Timestamps
Sean Rameswaram [00:00]: "Elon Musk is a funny guy. You can tell because his favorite cryptocurrency is based on a cute dog..."
Chris Edwards [04:45]: "So biggest single share is Social Security... that's the biggest single program, and it's one that Trump has promised not to cut."
Vivek Ramaswamy [18:54]: "The next biggest pot of money in the federal budget is aid from the federal government to state and local governments. That's $1.1 trillion of spending every year..."
Chris Edwards [12:10]: "They are not going to cut $2 trillion. I will bet any amount of money... likely to be top targets."
Vivek Ramaswamy [24:20]: "Republicans will be scared that if the deficits are too big and the spending is too large, they risk a bout of inflation..."
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing listeners with a clear understanding of the proposed Department of Government Efficiency's objectives, the challenges of implementing such substantial budget cuts, and the broader implications for U.S. federal spending and governance.