Podcast Summary: Today, Explained — "Can Rubio end the Ukraine war?"

Date: December 2, 2025
Hosts: Estad Herndon
Guests: John Hudson (Washington Post), Luke Harding (The Guardian), audio remarks from Secretary of State Marco Rubio
Run time summarized: [02:00–25:45]

Overview

This episode investigates the Trump administration's attempted peace deal to end the Russia–Ukraine war. The focus is on Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s pivotal role: Can he broker an agreement palatable to both Ukraine and Russia, and the skeptical Ukrainian, European, and US responses to the process? The discussion traverses the chaotic negotiations, leaked peace proposals, the motivations of Trump’s team, and the commercial as well as geopolitical dynamics underpinning current failed efforts.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Peace Team and Internal Chaos ([02:03–05:35])

• Who’s negotiating?
  Trump’s negotiation team is a “chaotic” mix:

  • Steve Witkoff, Trump’s special envoy and close friend
  • Dan Driscoll, Secretary of the Army and ally of VP J.D. Vance
  • Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law
  • Marco Rubio, Secretary of State and National Security Advisor

• Confusion and Progress:
  The team’s lack of coordination has caused confusion—“a lot of cooks in the kitchen”—but also progress towards a deal, though at the cost of internal and external criticism.

Quote:

"I don't know if anybody have had a Thanksgiving experience recently with a lot of cooks in the kitchen. You've had confusion...it's been a little bit chaotic."
— John Hudson [02:20]

2. Marco Rubio’s Emerging Role ([03:07–06:39])

• Rubio steps up after blowback from a leaked pro-Russia “28-point plan.” His intervention earns plaudits from Ukrainians for making the proposal more balanced, notably removing:

  • A permanent NATO ban for Ukraine
  • Restrictions on Ukrainian military capacity

• Traditional Foreign Policy Hawk:
  Rubio is described as a “traditional Republican foreign policy” figure—hawkish towards Russia, skeptical of its intentions, and supportive of US allies.

Quotes:

"Rubio is your traditional foreign policy hawk. His natural predisposition is to be extremely suspicious of Russia, Hawkish towards Russia."
— John Hudson [05:55]

"I think their goals are very clear. To maintain their weapons capabilities in a way that furthers their desire to be a dominant power at our expense..."
— Marco Rubio [06:07]

3. The Leaked "Russian Wish List" Plan ([09:04–10:48])

• Controversy erupts over a leaked peace plan many saw as “copy and paste” from Russian demands.
  • Rubio himself told senators it was “essentially the wish list of the Russians,” then denied saying so after it was reported.
  • Public faith in the process hit a low due to these revelations.

Quote:

"The leaked 28 point plan, which according to Secretary Rubio, is not the administration's position. It is essentially the wish list of the Russians."
— John Hudson [09:15]

4. The Near Future: Uncertainty and Tension ([10:48–12:02])

• Prospects for success:

  • Russian reaction to new proposals expected to be negative if the deal is seen as tilting toward Ukraine, but Trump desires any win.
  • Ukraine’s vulnerable position (due to corruption scandal and US support uncertainty) makes it more susceptible to pressure.

• Big Question:

  • Will revised terms be made public and how will Moscow respond?

Quote:

"If he [Rubio] shifted it too far in favor of Kyiv, we're expected to see a negative reaction from the Russians."
— John Hudson [10:59]

5. Ukrainian and European Skepticism ([15:33–22:41])

Luke Harding’s Analysis (from Ukraine & prior Moscow reporting)

• Peace plan origins:
  • The “peace” proposal was written in Russian, with obvious Russian bureaucratic language.
  • Devised by Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev (Putin’s business-focused envoy).

Quote:

"It was originally written in Russian...these kind of Russian bureaucratic phrases leapt out at me."
— Luke Harding [16:07]

• Ukrainian view:
  • The plan is a non-starter: requires Ukraine to give up Donetsk, accept bans on NATO/EU membership, gets no real security guarantees, and is essentially a “Kremlin wish list.”

Quote:

"It’s bonkers. It’s just a Kremlin wish list...for Russia, by Russia."
— Luke Harding [18:13]

• Russian strategy:
  The process is more about prolonging negotiations to gain further concessions and business advantages (e.g., US oil companies returning to Russia), rather than genuine steps towards peace.

Quote:

"Their strategy is to push forward village by smash village in the east and south of Ukraine, create facts on the ground, and meanwhile screw as many concessions as they can from the American side."
— Luke Harding [18:39]

• Comparison to past peace proposals:

  • Russia still claims four Ukrainian regions; Ukraine (and Europe) will not legitimize these, so differences are irreconcilable.

• Centrality of economic interests:
  The process heavily intertwines with business opportunities for Trump and his circle, as revealed by Wall Street Journal reporting on secret meetings with Russian energy oligarchs.

Quote:

"Some of the beneficiaries or the possible beneficiaries of a reset with Russia are people close to Trump, friends, donors and so on..."
— Luke Harding [22:41]

6. Rubio vs. Vance: Internal US Tensions ([24:08–25:45])

• Rubio seen as a serious, traditionalist counterweight in negotiations, compared to the openly pro-Russian hardline represented by Vice President J.D. Vance.
• Rubio is viewed as potentially wanting a “genuine” peace that does not sell out Ukraine, but faces powerful isolationist currents in the administration.

Quote:

“Rubio is a traditional foreign policy person who I think doesn't wholly want to sell out Ukraine, genuinely wants peace. I think Rubio is an absolutely key player of all this.”
— Luke Harding [25:02]

Notable Quotes

| Timestamp | Speaker | Quote | |------------|---------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:20 | John Hudson | "You've had confusion. You've had different things being directed to different people. It's been a little bit chaotic." | | 05:55 | John Hudson | "Rubio is your traditional foreign policy hawk. His natural predisposition is to be extremely suspicious of Russia, Hawkish towards Russia." | | 09:15 | John Hudson | "The leaked 28 point plan, which according to Secretary Rubio, is not the administration's position. It is essentially the wish list of the Russians." | | 16:07 | Luke Harding | "It was originally written in Russian...these kind of Russian bureaucratic phrases leapt out at me." | | 18:13 | Luke Harding | "It's bonkers. It's just a Kremlin wish list...for Russia, by Russia." | | 18:39 | Luke Harding | "Their strategy is to push forward village by smash village in the east and south of Ukraine, create facts on the ground, and meanwhile screw as many concessions as they can from the American side." | | 22:41 | Luke Harding | "Some of the beneficiaries or the possible beneficiaries of a reset with Russia are people close to Trump, friends, donors and so on..." | | 25:02 | Luke Harding | “Rubio is a traditional foreign policy person who I think doesn't wholly want to sell out Ukraine, genuinely wants peace. I think Rubio is an absolutely key player of all this.” |

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:03] — John Hudson introduced; team breakdown
• [03:07] — Marco Rubio’s initial involvement
• [05:55] — Rubio’s foreign policy worldview
• [09:15] — Leaked “Russian wish list” controversy
• [10:56] — Prospects for the coming week in negotiations
• [15:33] — Luke Harding joins, skepticism explained
• [16:07] — Russian authorship of the peace plan
• [17:29] — Why Ukrainians reject the plan
• [18:39] — Russia’s real strategy
• [22:41] — Does commerce/Trump's interests drive the process?
• [24:08] — Rubio’s significance, tension with Vance

Takeaways

• The US-brokered peace process is widely seen as disorganized, opaque, and failing to satisfy Ukraine or NATO allies.
• Marco Rubio has moved the US position closer to traditional Republican foreign policy, but faces constraints from Trump's priorities and inner circle.
• The peace plans, reportedly authored or heavily shaped by Russian figures, are considered non-starters in Kyiv and Western Europe.
• Business considerations (especially energy deals) appear deeply entangled with diplomatic negotiations.
• Deep internal US administration tensions (Rubio vs. Vance/isolationists) could shape how far the US will go in defending Ukraine’s interests.

This summary captures the meat of the discussion for listeners wanting to understand the Ukraine peace process, Rubio’s role, and the broader context of US-Russia-Ukraine relations as depicted in this episode.