Today, Explained: Can Trump Get a Gaza Ceasefire?

Vox's daily news explainer podcast, "Today, Explained," hosted by Noel King and Sean Rameswaram, delves into the pressing question of whether former President Donald Trump can secure a ceasefire in Gaza amidst ongoing conflict. Released on December 18, 2024, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical dynamics at play, featuring insights from diplomatic experts and examining the potential impact of a Trump administration on the Israel-Gaza situation.

Current Ceasefire Negotiations

The episode opens with Noel King setting the stage for the intense flurry of diplomatic activities targeting a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza. Over the past 24 hours, significant developments include:

• Israeli Negotiators in Qatar: An Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, signaling a potential move towards dialogue.

• Palestinian Negotiations: On Tuesday, a senior Palestinian negotiator informed the BBC that talks are in a "decisive and final phase" (00:00).

• Netanyahu’s Alleged Cairo Visit: Reuters reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned to visit Cairo, a claim his office swiftly denied.

• CIA Involvement: CBS reported that William Burns, the CIA Director, is also en route to Qatar, indicating high-level U.S. engagement in the negotiations.

Amidst these developments, President-elect Trump held a press conference where he warned, "If these hostages aren't back home by January 20th, all hell's going to break out" (00:40), underscoring the urgency and high stakes of the situation.

Insights from Diplomatic Expert Amir Tibon

Noel King interviews Amir Tibon, the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz and author of "The Gates of Gaza," who provides a nuanced perspective on the negotiations:

• Progress in Negotiations: Tibon states, "We are closer today than yesterday and closer today than two, three, and four months ago" (03:10). However, he cautions against premature optimism, emphasizing that a ceasefire is not imminent.

• Hostage Crisis as a Central Issue: The release of hostages remains Israel's top priority, with approximately 100 hostages currently held by Hamas, about half of whom are believed to be alive (04:44). Tibon highlights internal Israeli political tensions, noting that while Netanyahu prioritizes hostage recovery, far-right coalition partners push for more aggressive actions against Hamas.

• Trump’s Potential Influence: Tibon explores Trump's impact on the situation, suggesting that his strong statements and commitment to ending the war may influence Israeli decisions. However, he remains uncertain about Trump's sustained focus once inaugurated, acknowledging Trump's broader global impact (06:31).

Israeli Public and Political Landscape

Tibon elaborates on Israeli public sentiment towards Trump, revealing significant support across various segments of Israeli society. Israelis view Trump as a president who was "very supportive of Israel during his previous term" and appreciate his brash, unfiltered communication style (08:28). Nevertheless, internal political struggles persist, particularly between hostage families advocating for a deal and far-right factions demanding the eradication of Hamas.

Palestinian Perspectives on Trump’s Return

The conversation shifts to Palestinian views on a potential Trump administration:

• Mixed Reactions: Palestinians remember Trump's first term as pro-Israel and skeptical of Palestinian interests. While some fear a continuation of that stance, others hold out hope that Trump might adopt a different approach this time (09:44).

• Abraham Accords Revisited: Tibon discusses the legacy of the Abraham Accords, viewing them as sidelining Palestinian concerns. However, there is cautious optimism that Trump's renewed involvement could address longstanding Israeli-Palestinian issues.

US Administration Cooperation

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, remains engaged with Trump's incoming team, indicating a level of cooperation despite the administrative shift (10:58). Tibon acknowledges that this coordination may enhance the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement, blending efforts from both administrations.

Historical Context: Trump’s First Term Policies

Stephen A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, provides historical context on Trump's approach to Israel:

• Pro-Israel Stance: Trump’s administration was notably pro-Israel, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights (16:04).

• Impact on Peace Efforts: His policies, including the establishment of Israeli settlements, were controversial and seen by Palestinians as undermining the two-state solution (17:14).

• Trust Deficit with Netanyahu: Cook highlights a lingering trust deficit between Trump and Netanyahu, suggesting that differing views on pivotal issues like the two-state solution and Iran's nuclear program could complicate cooperation (21:23).

Potential Outcomes of a Ceasefire Before Trump’s Inauguration

As the possibility of a ceasefire gains traction, the episode explores who stands to claim credit:

• Credit to the IDF: Both Trump and Biden are working towards a ceasefire, but Cook posits that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deserve primary recognition for their role in achieving a ceasefire (26:07).

• Political Narratives: Trump is likely to assert ownership of the ceasefire, aligning it with his campaign promises, while the Biden administration may also seek acknowledgment for their sustained efforts (26:07).

Conclusion

The episode wraps up by emphasizing the multifaceted nature of the ceasefire negotiations and the significant role that Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could play. While diplomatic efforts are gaining momentum, internal political dynamics within Israel and broader regional complexities present substantial challenges. The collaborative efforts between the outgoing Biden administration and Trump's incoming team may prove pivotal in reaching a resolution, but uncertainties remain regarding the long-term stability and effectiveness of any achieved ceasefire.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Donald Trump on Hostages: "I'll be very available on January 20th and we'll see. As you know, I gave warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell's going to break out." (00:40)

• Amir Tibon on Ceasefire Progress: "We are closer today than yesterday and closer today than two, three and four months ago." (03:10)

• Stephen A. Cook on Trump-Netanyahu Relations: "Trump was always concerned that Netanyahu was going to double cross him. Netanyahu was always worried that Trump was going to do something that would run afoul of Israel's interests." (21:29)

• Amir Tibon on Trump’s Statements: "I want to thank President Trump for his strong statement yesterday about the need for Hamas to release the hostages." (22:59)

• Stephen A. Cook on IdF’s Role: "I would give neither of them, I would say that the credit goes to the IDF." (26:07)

Timestamps

• 00:00 - 00:54: Introduction to the potential ceasefire and Trump’s initial stance.
• 03:10 - 08:28: Interview with Amir Tibon on negotiations, Israeli politics, and Trump’s influence.
• 09:44 - 11:56: Palestinian perspectives and US administration cooperation.
• 16:04 - 23:17: Historical context of Trump’s first term, policy impacts, and trust issues.
• 23:28 - 26:48: Potential outcomes of a ceasefire and credit attribution.
• 27:31 - 28:51: (Omitted) Advertisement segments.

This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the "Today, Explained" episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.