Can Trump get a Gaza ceasefire?

Summary

Today, Explained: Can Trump Get a Gaza Ceasefire?

Vox's daily news explainer podcast, "Today, Explained," hosted by Noel King and Sean Rameswaram, delves into the pressing question of whether former President Donald Trump can secure a ceasefire in Gaza amidst ongoing conflict. Released on December 18, 2024, this episode provides an in-depth analysis of the geopolitical dynamics at play, featuring insights from diplomatic experts and examining the potential impact of a Trump administration on the Israel-Gaza situation.

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Current Ceasefire Negotiations

The episode opens with Noel King setting the stage for the intense flurry of diplomatic activities targeting a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza. Over the past 24 hours, significant developments include:

• Israeli Negotiators in Qatar: An Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, signaling a potential move towards dialogue.

• Palestinian Negotiations: On Tuesday, a senior Palestinian negotiator informed the BBC that talks are in a "decisive and final phase" (00:00).

• Netanyahu’s Alleged Cairo Visit: Reuters reported that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu planned to visit Cairo, a claim his office swiftly denied.

• CIA Involvement: CBS reported that William Burns, the CIA Director, is also en route to Qatar, indicating high-level U.S. engagement in the negotiations.

Amidst these developments, President-elect Trump held a press conference where he warned, "If these hostages aren't back home by January 20th, all hell's going to break out" (00:40), underscoring the urgency and high stakes of the situation.

Insights from Diplomatic Expert Amir Tibon

Noel King interviews Amir Tibon, the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz and author of "The Gates of Gaza," who provides a nuanced perspective on the negotiations:

• Progress in Negotiations: Tibon states, "We are closer today than yesterday and closer today than two, three, and four months ago" (03:10). However, he cautions against premature optimism, emphasizing that a ceasefire is not imminent.

• Hostage Crisis as a Central Issue: The release of hostages remains Israel's top priority, with approximately 100 hostages currently held by Hamas, about half of whom are believed to be alive (04:44). Tibon highlights internal Israeli political tensions, noting that while Netanyahu prioritizes hostage recovery, far-right coalition partners push for more aggressive actions against Hamas.

• Trump’s Potential Influence: Tibon explores Trump's impact on the situation, suggesting that his strong statements and commitment to ending the war may influence Israeli decisions. However, he remains uncertain about Trump's sustained focus once inaugurated, acknowledging Trump's broader global impact (06:31).

Israeli Public and Political Landscape

Tibon elaborates on Israeli public sentiment towards Trump, revealing significant support across various segments of Israeli society. Israelis view Trump as a president who was "very supportive of Israel during his previous term" and appreciate his brash, unfiltered communication style (08:28). Nevertheless, internal political struggles persist, particularly between hostage families advocating for a deal and far-right factions demanding the eradication of Hamas.

Palestinian Perspectives on Trump’s Return

The conversation shifts to Palestinian views on a potential Trump administration:

• Mixed Reactions: Palestinians remember Trump's first term as pro-Israel and skeptical of Palestinian interests. While some fear a continuation of that stance, others hold out hope that Trump might adopt a different approach this time (09:44).

• Abraham Accords Revisited: Tibon discusses the legacy of the Abraham Accords, viewing them as sidelining Palestinian concerns. However, there is cautious optimism that Trump's renewed involvement could address longstanding Israeli-Palestinian issues.

US Administration Cooperation

Jake Sullivan, Biden’s National Security Advisor, remains engaged with Trump's incoming team, indicating a level of cooperation despite the administrative shift (10:58). Tibon acknowledges that this coordination may enhance the chances of reaching a ceasefire agreement, blending efforts from both administrations.

Historical Context: Trump’s First Term Policies

Stephen A. Cook, a senior fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, provides historical context on Trump's approach to Israel:

• Pro-Israel Stance: Trump’s administration was notably pro-Israel, moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights (16:04).

• Impact on Peace Efforts: His policies, including the establishment of Israeli settlements, were controversial and seen by Palestinians as undermining the two-state solution (17:14).

• Trust Deficit with Netanyahu: Cook highlights a lingering trust deficit between Trump and Netanyahu, suggesting that differing views on pivotal issues like the two-state solution and Iran's nuclear program could complicate cooperation (21:23).

Potential Outcomes of a Ceasefire Before Trump’s Inauguration

As the possibility of a ceasefire gains traction, the episode explores who stands to claim credit:

• Credit to the IDF: Both Trump and Biden are working towards a ceasefire, but Cook posits that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deserve primary recognition for their role in achieving a ceasefire (26:07).

• Political Narratives: Trump is likely to assert ownership of the ceasefire, aligning it with his campaign promises, while the Biden administration may also seek acknowledgment for their sustained efforts (26:07).

Conclusion

The episode wraps up by emphasizing the multifaceted nature of the ceasefire negotiations and the significant role that Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House could play. While diplomatic efforts are gaining momentum, internal political dynamics within Israel and broader regional complexities present substantial challenges. The collaborative efforts between the outgoing Biden administration and Trump's incoming team may prove pivotal in reaching a resolution, but uncertainties remain regarding the long-term stability and effectiveness of any achieved ceasefire.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Donald Trump on Hostages: "I'll be very available on January 20th and we'll see. As you know, I gave warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell's going to break out." (00:40)

• Amir Tibon on Ceasefire Progress: "We are closer today than yesterday and closer today than two, three and four months ago." (03:10)

• Stephen A. Cook on Trump-Netanyahu Relations: "Trump was always concerned that Netanyahu was going to double cross him. Netanyahu was always worried that Trump was going to do something that would run afoul of Israel's interests." (21:29)

• Amir Tibon on Trump’s Statements: "I want to thank President Trump for his strong statement yesterday about the need for Hamas to release the hostages." (22:59)

• Stephen A. Cook on IdF’s Role: "I would give neither of them, I would say that the credit goes to the IDF." (26:07)

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Timestamps

• 00:00 - 00:54: Introduction to the potential ceasefire and Trump’s initial stance.
• 03:10 - 08:28: Interview with Amir Tibon on negotiations, Israeli politics, and Trump’s influence.
• 09:44 - 11:56: Palestinian perspectives and US administration cooperation.
• 16:04 - 23:17: Historical context of Trump’s first term, policy impacts, and trust issues.
• 23:28 - 26:48: Potential outcomes of a ceasefire and credit attribution.
• 27:31 - 28:51: (Omitted) Advertisement segments.

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This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the "Today, Explained" episode, providing a comprehensive overview for those who haven't listened to the podcast.

Transcript

[Noel King]

Is a ceasefire between Israel and Gaza imminent? For the past 24 hours, there's been a flurry, a snowstorm even, of news suggesting yes. It begins with an Israeli negotiating team arriving in Qatar Monday. Tuesday, a senior Palestinian negotiator tells the BBC that talks are in a, quote, decisive and final phase. Then, according to Reuters, Benjamin Netanyahu makes a plan to go to Cairo, which his office denies. And today, CBS reports that William Burns, director of the CIA, is also on his way to Qatar. As all this began on Monday, President elect Trump gave a press conference and gave a warning.

[Donald Trump]

I'll be very available on January 20th and we'll see. As you know, I gave warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell's going to break out.

[Noel King]

Coming up on TODAY explained, can this new administration deliver a ceasefire in Gaza?

[Claire White]

Support for this show comes from the aclu. The ACLU knows exactly what threats a second Donald Trump term presents and they are ready with a battle tested playbook. The ACLU took legal action against the first Trump administration 434 times and they will do it again to protect immigrants rights, defend reproductive freedom, safeguard free speech, and fight for all of our fundamental rights and freedoms. Join the ACLU today to help stop the Extreme Project 2025 agenda. Learn more@ ACLU.org.

[Liam]

Hey, it's Liam from Decoder with Neelai Patel. We spent a lot of time talking about some of the most important people in tech and business, about what they're putting resources to and why they think it's so critical for the future. That's why we're doing this special series, diving into some of the most unique ways companies are spending money today. For instance, what does it mean to start buying and using AI at work? How much is that costing companies? What products are they buying, and most importantly, what are they doing with it? And of course, podcasts. Yes, the thing you're listening to right now, well, it's increasingly being produced directly by companies like venture capital firms, investment funds, and a new crop of creators who one day want to be investors themselves. And what is actually going on with these acquisitions this year, especially in the AI space? Why are so many big players in tech deciding not to acquire and instead license tech and hire away co founders? The answer, it turns out, is a lot more complicated than it seems. You'll hear all that and more this month on Decoder with Nilai Patel, presented by Stripe. You can listen to Decoder wherever you get your podcasts.

[Noel King]

It's TODAY Explained. I'm Noel King Amir Tibon is the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz. Amir was a resident of Nahl Oz, which is a kibbutz near the Gaza border that Hamas militants attacked on October 7, after which Amir wrote the book the Gates of Gaza. Amir, start by telling us where we are with the ceasefire negotiations.

[Amir Tibon]

We are closer today than yesterday and closer today than two, three and four months ago. But I would still urge people not to run into any kind of conclusions, that we are on the verge of ending the war, that a ceasefire will be signed tomorrow, that the hostages are coming back in 48 hours. I would love for all of those things to be true, but I don't think they are. There have been many attempts over the past year to square the circle on one specific issue, which is that Hamas demands that in return for the Israeli hostages, Israel will agree to end the war in Gaza completely officially, with international safeguards and commitments by world powers that the war will not be renewed after the last Israeli hostage comes back from Gaza. And the Netanyahu government in Israel refuses to accept this demand and says that it is willing to accept a ceasefire, temporary, even a long ceasefire of many weeks or months, but not to officially end the war, because if Hamas stays in power, it will regroup, rearm, and attack Israel again and again and again as it is vowed to do so. Hamas has got to go. And Hamas says without an official and final end to the war, there will not be a deal.

[Noel King]

At the heart of these negotiations are the hostages. How much of a priority are these hostages for Benjamin Netanyahu? The families are certainly putting a lot of pressure on him.

[Amir Tibon]

The release of the hostages for the Israeli public is the number one priority. You see it in all the public opinion polls. This is the most important issue to an overwhelming majority of Israelis. And the hostages. We currently have 100 of them in the hands of the enemy. Approximately half of them are considered to be alive. But it sometimes seems that if there are Israelis who are a little less committed to the issue of the hostages, they somehow happen to sit in the government. Because you do have people in this government, especially the far right elements of it, messianic, ultra religious members of it, who have other priorities. They want to build settlements in Gaza. Netanyahu is not in that category. Netanyahu doesn't really care for settlements in Gaza, you know, on an ideological or religious level. But the problem is he needs those people in order to remain in power. And what we're seeing right now is a momentous struggle here in Israel between the families of the hostages and Many, many, many Israelis who support them, who are pushing for a deal, and those far right elements in the government who are much as committed to a deal, and Netanyahu in between until this point, seemingly more on the side of his coalition partners. Maybe it will change in the coming days, but that's a real problem.

[Noel King]

How much does Trump mean for this war?

[Amir Tibon]

Trump's entry into the White House will change many, many things all over the world. But it seems that on the issue of the wars in Gaza and Lebanon, it has already been causing change even before he is in the White House. And we saw it certainly on Lebanon, where there is no doubt that the Israeli decision to go into the ceasefire was impacted, at least by Trump's desire to have that war end before he becomes president. He said it during the election. I want to remind you that Trump campaigned for Arab and Muslim votes in Michigan and that he has a Lebanese in law, the father of Tiffany, Trump's husband, who has become somewhat of a special envoy of Trump's to the Arab and Muslim world. And we were hearing these tunes all the time that Trump wants to end the war in Lebanon. Regarding Gaza, it took a little more time, but in the last two weeks, we have seen very strong words from Trump, you know, expressing his commitment to finding a hostage deal and ending the war in Gaza.

[Donald Trump]

I'll be very available on January 20th and we'll see. As you know, I gave warning that if these hostages aren't back home by that date, all hell's going to break out. And very strong.

[Amir Tibon]

There is an open question of how much he will still care about it once he's in the White House, and there will be many, many other priorities for him. But for now, it looks like all the actors in this region are looking at this and saying, okay, we don't really want to get into a fight with this new president. He's going to be there for four years. Let's try at least to show him some goodwill.

[Noel King]

What do Israelis think about Donald Trump coming back in?

[Amir Tibon]

Trump is very popular in Israel. I would say much more popular than any Israeli politician at this point in time. And he enjoys support from different parts of Israeli society. Israelis look at him as a president who was very supportive of Israel during his previous term in office, and also as someone that talks a bit like an Israeli, if you want to put it that way.

[Noel King]

How so?

[Amir Tibon]

No political correctness. Brash says exactly what he thinks, not always very sensitive to what others will think about his words. And, you know, I can see him getting quite well in A, you know, group of Israelis sitting in a cafe on Friday morning and talking about whatever is happening in the world.

[Noel King]

I wonder from your perspective there, what do you hear about what Palestinians think about Trump coming back into office? As you mentioned, in the United States, some Arab Americans broke for Trump in the 2024 election, believing Joe Biden wasn't doing everything that could be done. How are Palestinians in the region feeling?

[Amir Tibon]

There are mixed feelings about it because a lot of Palestinians remember Trump from the first term being very much on the side of Israel and taking a very tough stance toward the Palestinians. And the biggest achievement of his foreign policy in the first term were the Abraham Accords, which from a Palestinian perspective were an attempt to sidestep the Palestinians, to turn them into a minor issue in the regional picture to come and say Israel can make peace with the Arab world regardless of the Palestinians. And I think there is some concern, but there are also some surprisingly optimistic voices who think that maybe this time around Trump will take a different approach and will also try to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict along the other regional issues and achievements he would like to have. I know that there has been some contact between Trump and the leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas. His Lebanese in law, Masoud Boulos, has been the contact point for that relationship. And I guess we'll have to wait and see. It's an open question at this point.

[Noel King]

Joe Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has been openly talking about working with his successor, who of course will be a member of Donald Trump's team. He said it's been professional and serious.

[Stephen A. Cook]

And we've had good discussions, constructive and substantive discussions.

[Noel King]

Do we know whether the outgoing and incoming administrations in the US Are working together on this at all?

[Amir Tibon]

On the hostage issue? I know that there are some levels of cooperation because the Biden administration is still officially running this file and trying to get a deal. But they are benefiting from the Trump effect. And there is some level of coordination. And I think it's important because it increases the likelihood of a deal actually being reached.

[Noel King]

Amir Tibon, he's the diplomatic correspondent for Haaretz. He's also the author of the Gates of Gaza. Coming up, Donald's second Chance. Support for Today explained comes from Quince. Quince knows that feeling when it's cold outside, but you wake up warm and cozy in the sheets and you want to sleep a little bit more, but you have to get up for work. Quince wants to make that struggle even harder. Ditch your scratchy sheets and upgrade to high quality materials such such as European linen and organic cotton which Quince says give a five star hotel feel. Plus, just like Quince's clothing, their bedding is priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. Claire White is my colleague here at Vox. Here's what she thinks about Quince.

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[Noel King]

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[Liam]

This is today, explained.

[Noel King]

Stephen Go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Stephen A. Cook, I'm a senior fellow for Middle east and Africa Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

[Noel King]

In the first half of the show, we talked about what a Donald Trump presidency, a second one, might mean for the war in Israel. Let's go back in time to 2016 to 2020. How did Trump approach Israel in his first term?

[Stephen A. Cook]

Well, Trump was a very pro Israel president, which is saying something because most presidents actually are very pro Israel.

[Donald Trump]

Under my administration, the unbreakable alliance between the United States and Israel has never been stronger. You read things, you hear things. It's never been stronger.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Just remember that he moved the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

[Donald Trump]

At this moment, the American Embassy stands proudly in Jerusalem, the capital the Jewish people have established. And they wanted the embassy for many, many years, for many decades, and frankly.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Through many presidents, something that had been a law since the late 1990s, but no president had ever acted on it.

[Donald Trump]

We got it done. Not only did we get it done, we also got it built at a slight cost saving.

[Stephen A. Cook]

He recognized Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights and in general, sort of turned a blind eye to the worst excesses of the Israeli government when it came to settlement in the West Bank.

[Claire White]

And let's turn to the State Department, where Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is speaking right now.

[Stephen A. Cook]

The establishment of Israeli civilian settlements in the west bank is not per se inconsistent with international law.

[Noel King]

The US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, is visiting an Israeli settlement in the occupied west bank in the latest breach. With decades of US Policy in the Middle east, the world has arguably gotten more complex since Donald Trump's last term.

[Stephen A. Cook]

I think so.

[Claire White]

Yeah.

[Noel King]

Okay. Okay. You know, we add arguably just in case, Russia, Ukraine, October 7th, every nation that was pulled in after October 7th. Do you think Trump and his foreign policy team recognize things may be more complicated this time around?

[Stephen A. Cook]

So you'd like to think that they do, that they're in touch with reality. But some of the statements that Trump has made about the region would suggest that he thinks he's just going to pick up where he left off when he reluctantly left office in January 2021. He's been talking about expanding the Abraham Accords to include Saudi Arabia to cooperate.

[Donald Trump]

As partners across the broad range of sectors, from tourism to trade and healthcare to security.

[Stephen A. Cook]

That has been greatly complicated as a result of the war in the Gaza Strip. The Saudi price for normalization has gone up steeply since the war began. And now the Saudis are demanding an actual two state solution.

[Amir Tibon]

The answer is a Palestinian state. The answer is a Palestinian state. Yes.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Something that the Israelis are not prepared to even entertain at this moment.

[Noel King]

Do any of his appointments reflect the major changes undergone? Who's he looking at to serve under him on the Middle east and Israel?

[Stephen A. Cook]

The national security adviser designate, Congressman Mike Waltz, is someone who is a very pro Israel personality. Senator Marco Rubio, who's been designated to be the Secretary of State, also has very strong pro Israel credentials. And of course, his UN Permanent representative is Elise Stepanik, the congresswoman from New York who made a name for herself for being pugnaciously pro Israel, as well as taking on elite college presidents in those famous hearings after the October 7th attacks at Harvard.

[Noel King]

Does calling for the genocide of Jews violate Harvard's rules of bullying and harassment? Yes or no? It can be depending on the context. What's the context? Targeted as an individual. Targeted as an individual. It's targeted at Jewish students, Jewish individuals. Do you understand your testimony is dehumanizing them? Do you understand that dehumanization is part of antisemitism?

[Stephen A. Cook]

And then there is, of course, Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, who's been named US Ambassador to Israel, who is a very, very pro Israel figure.

[Amir Tibon]

There are certain words I refuse to use. There is no such thing as a West Bank. It's Judea and Sumeria. There's no such thing as a settlement. Their communities, their neighborhoods, their cities. There's no such thing as an occupation.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Mike Huckabee might as well be a settler. He doesn't recognize the Palestinian people as a nation.

[Amir Tibon]

There's plenty of land in the world that we could find a place and say, okay, let's create a Palestinian state.

[Stephen A. Cook]

He doesn't regard Israel's settlement in the west bank as illegal. This is an administration that is very, very pro Israel. But of course, these people may end up just being implementers. Bit players in what President Trump decides to do. And based on his first term, what he decides to do is what his gut tells him. He sees himself as a great negotiator and I think at least on the two state solution and on Iran's nuclear program, that self perception as a great negotiator and dealmaker may cause tension with an Israeli government that has other views on these two issues.

[Noel King]

What do we know of the truth about what Trump and Netanyahu think of each other?

[Stephen A. Cook]

Well, I read Jared Kushner's memoir of his time in the White House so that no one else had to. It was truly a dreadful read. But one of the things I learned, in fact, I think one of the only things I learned in the book, other than the fact that he's a terrible writer and can't even make his grandparents seem charming, was that Netanyahu and Trump there was a very significant trust deficit between the two leaders.

[Liam]

Bibi responded with less than expected enthusiasm. Thrown off by the lukewarm response, Trump began to second guess his decision. As he continued his conversation with Bibi, he wondered aloud why he was taking this risk if the Israeli Prime Minister didn't think it was that important. Trump's voice hardened into a stern tone. Bibi, I think you are the problem.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Trump was always concerned that Netanyahu was going to double cross him. Netanyahu was always worried that Trump was going to do something that would run afoul of Israel's interests, like sit down and negotiate with the Iranians over a new nuclear deal. Add to the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu relatively quickly called President Joe Biden when his election was confirmed in November 2020, and this angered President Trump. So ever since Trump's reelection, Netanyahu has made a real effort to call Trump, placate Trump.

[Amir Tibon]

I want to thank President Trump for his strong statement yesterday about the need for Hamas to release the hostages. The responsibility of Hamas. And this adds another force to our continuing effort to release all the hostages. Thank you, President Trump.

[Stephen A. Cook]

But I still think that that trust deficit remains because Trump has a different view of things like the two state solution and the Iran nuclear program than the Israelis do.

[Noel King]

Now, I'm asking you this question in the context of it is Tuesday afternoon as we speak, and we're hearing a SC ceasefire may be near. I mean, we've got Reuters in the AP reporting it. I have no idea. When do you think we'll get a ceasefire? What's your sort of.

[Stephen A. Cook]

Yeah, I know, I mean, I've been listening to you Know, columnists and others tell me that a ceasefire is imminent since at least February 2024. And what I know is that Hamas, in the person of Yahya Sinwar, who the Israelis killed a number of months ago, was not interested in a ceasefire, believing that Hamas was winning the conflict because it was a total war. And even though the Israelis were doing a lot of damage to Hamas's cadres in the Gaza Strip, Israel's international legitimacy was suffering greatly as a result of the conflict. And for Yahya Sinwar and others within Hamas, this was one of the goals was to undermine Israel's legitimacy, see, in the international order. And then, of course, on the Israeli side, the. The settlers did not want a ceasefire. They want the, quote, unquote, total destruction of Hamas to clear the way for the Israelis to essentially resettle the Gaza Strip. So there was no real incentive for a ceasefire. Things have changed significantly since then. However, the Israelis have done a tremendous damn amount of damage to Hezbollah, Iran's primary proxy in Lebanon. And there's now a ceasefire in Lebanon that leaves Hamas standing alone, which Hamas now needs to make a decision. Will it save the remnants of itself by cutting a deal with the Israelis, or will it fight on, believing that the continued fight will continue to damage Israel internationally and that they're going to play the long game? Some of the indications coming from Israeli ministers and others, the Egyptians and others, is that Hamas has dropped a major sticking point, which is that they demanded that all Israeli forces leave the Gaza Strip. So that may pave the way towards a ceasefire and a hostage exchange.

[Noel King]

There are a million reasons to want a ceasefire here, not least of which is the humanitarian catastrophe which has unfolded for more than a year. But in the blunt calculus of politics, if we do get a ceasefire before Donald Trump is inaugurated, who gets the win? Trump? Biden. Will they fight over it?

[Stephen A. Cook]

I mean, certainly Trump will claim it. The Biden team will also claim it. They've been working at this, you know, since the very beginning. I would give neither of them, I would say that the credit goes to the idf. You know, of course Donald Trump will claim it. I mean, that's why he's been posting on Truth Social and said in his first press conference that there would be hell to pay if the hostages weren't returned by the time he's inaugurated. But I think, you know, he's essentially setting it up, so he takes the credit for it.

[Noel King]

The man from Plainview, Stephen Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations, thanks to him. Thanks also to Avishai Artsy and Peter Balan on Rosen for producing today's show, Matthew Colette for editing, Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers for engineering and Laura Bullard for checking the facts. I'm Noel King. It's Today Explained.

[Claire White]

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[Stephen A. Cook]

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