Noel King (2:40)

You're listening to TODAY Explained. When the small city of El Fahshr, Sudan, was overrun by a paramilitary group in late October, the killing there was so frenzied that you could see Blood on the ground from space. Alex Duvall is a preeminent scholar of Sudan. He runs the World Peace foundation foundation at Tufts. He's been writing about and working in Sudan on and off for more than 40 years. Alex says that the people of El Fahsher tried to stay out of this war between the government forces and this paramilitary group. But it's a war and they got dragged in.

Alex Duvall (3:14)

So they sided with the so called government and they became the last place in Darfur that was resisting the Rapid Support Forces, this very vicious paramilitary. And just a few weeks ago, the RSF overran that garrison.

Noel King (3:35)

New satellite imagery is painting a grim picture of what may have happened in Sudan. This week, troops from Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, the rsf, gained control of the besieged city of Al Fasha.

Josh Keating (3:48)

They killed the men, they killed them all and they left none behind.

Alex Duvall (3:51)

We don't know what to do.

Josh Keating (3:52)

We're exhausted and we suffer greatly. The children are hungry.

Alex Duvall (3:56)

The people of Al Fasha had been living in a of suspended terror for 18 months because the RSF, when it overran previous cities, notably a city called El Junayna close to the border with Chad, had committed the most horrendous massacres against the people there. What the people of El FA had been experiencing was shelling, drone attacks, targeted on the hospitals, on the clinics, on everything that made civilian life bearable. And then when the troops or the paramilitary men came in, they went house to house, pulling people out, murdering men in the streets, raping women and girls in front of their families. Perhaps just as horrific as the crimes themselves is the way the men who are perpetrating them film themselves.

Noel King (4:51)

Some of the footage we have obtained from Al Fasher is simply too graphic for CNN to broadcast.

Alex Duvall (4:57)

Videos of soldiers shooting at unarmed people who clearly appeared to be civil men boasting about attacks and the numbers of people that they had killed.

Josh Keating (5:08)

His comrades filmed him taunting 10 unarmed prisoners, ordering them to praise the RSF's leader before shooting them at point blank rage.

Alex Duvall (5:21)

And you see their relish, the enjoyment with which they torture and torment their victims before killing them. These are videos that are simply too horrible to watch.

Noel King (5:36)

Okay, so as you said, Alex, there are two sides in this war and there is a general leading each side. Let's start with Sudan's regular army, the saf, who is the general leading that force?

Alex Duvall (5:50)

So General Abdelfattah Al Brahan is a regular career military officer. And like many of those regular officers, he has a pretty mixed record. So that some 20 years ago he was one of those who served in the vicious war in Darfur. He was then head of a contingent of Sudanese soldiers that served in Yemen, paid for by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. And he has his fingers in a number of crony capitalist enterprises that make money, etc. But within his coalition, which is a very fractious coalition, he has some people who are utterly ruthless. Among them an Islamist brigade. And he relies on them because they have money. They also have some of the best troops and they are bitter and vengeful. When General Burhan has said he's ready to come to peace talks, it's the Islamists in his coalition who say, no way.

Noel King (6:52)

What does General Burhan want here? And is it as simple as he wants to win this war for the government of Sudan.

Alex Duvall (7:00)

So he calls himself the government of Sudan, even though he didn't actually control the capital. The United nations recognized him rather foolishly in my view. But he wants to basically restore the status quo, which is certainly better than what we have now. But it was that status quo against which civilians came in that uprising seven years ago and against which many of the rural people in Sudan have rebelled. Who are Sudan's friends and who are Sudan's enemies.

Josh Keating (7:37)

Many countries remain silent and turn a blind eye to the crimes being committed every day. Everyone who remains silent and everyone who supports what the other side is doing on a daily basis is definitely an enemy.

Noel King (7:48)

How has General Burhan conducted himself and his forces during this war?

Alex Duvall (7:53)

So there's no doubt that his forces have committed war crimes, both at a sort of strategic level. They've tried to cut off international assistance to rebel held areas. They've blocked the UN and some of it through lack of discipline, some of it through the vengefulness of.

Noel King (8:14)

All right, let's talk about the other side in this war. This is the Rapid Support Force, the rsf, as you said, this is a paramilitary group. Who is the general leading them?

Alex Duvall (8:24)

So the general in charge there, his name is Mohammad Hamdan Dagalo. He's widely known as Hemetti. And 20 years ago, I first came across him when I read a report from African Union monitors. There were some peacekeepers in Darfur at the time in which a notorious militia called the Janjaweed, which had been rampaging on a sort of this genocidal campaign throughout Darfur. 20 years ago, they destroyed a village called Adwa in the center of Darfur, killed 128 people, 38 of them children. And when these African Union monitors showed up, this fellow Hemetti was there. And he didn't conceal the fact that they were responsible. In fact, he said, we've been planning this for a long time. So he was one of the sort of most ruthless and capable commanders. He's also a very charming man. Many of these killers are. They don't have horns growing out of their heads. And he became, over the succeeding years, a very capable commander serving the government. Also a businessman. So he took control of gold mines, artisanal gold mines in Darfur, became extremely wealthy. And he is a different kind of animal. So he's much more like a sort of a mercenary commercial operator. He doesn't want to rebuild the state as it was. He basically would like to see power in the hands of him and his family, running the country as though it's really a family business with his own private army, his own companies in charge.

Noel King (10:04)

How has Hemetti conducted himself and his forces during this war?

Alex Duvall (10:09)

So Hemetti claims to be standing for democr and he claims to be the champion of the poor and the marginalized and all those who oppose the Islamists. That doesn't cut much ice when we see how his forces have behaved throughout the war. It is utterly atrocious. Right at the beginning of the war, they ransacked and pillaged the national capital, Khartoum, terrorized so many of its inhabitants, looted, raped their way through whole residential neighborhoods. And then in Darfur, they conducted what is candidly a genocidal campaign in this city of El Fascia. And that was a long standing agenda of some of the groups that are allied with Hemetti and his forces.

Noel King (10:58)

You've been living in and writing about Sudan on and off for 40 years. You have seen, you know, little Sudanese kids grow up and get old and turn into middle aged men. These two men, these two generals, are people who have been shaped by years and years and years of war. They are perpetrators of war. They also, I imagine if you dig deeply enough back into their histories and into the histories of the men fighting with them, they are victims of war. And I wonder, when you think about the future of Sudan, you know, is the future of Sudan just more and more generations of men who've been shaped by war?

Alex Duvall (11:37)

So one of my very first hosts when I went to Darfur 40 years ago was an old sheikh from a nomadic Arab tribe who told me, you know, we are so poor, we are so impoverished, we've lost our camels. You know, the desert is encroaching, our way of life is coming to an end. And he said, what this famine means, that was the famine of that time isn't so much that our people are starving, but that our way of life is ending. Now. His son, same age as me, 20 years later became head of the Janjaweed, this notorious force. Wow. And then that man, Musa Hilal, the head of the Janjaweeji, was himself displaced by his second in command, Hemetti, who said, this man is not ruthless enough. So what we see is over those 40 years you can trace how the pressures and the traumas of hunger and of conflict have translated into this merciless political cult that we have today.

Noel King (12:48)

Alex Duvall he's the co author of Sudan's Unfinished Democracy, among other books. Coming up, Vox's Josh Keating on the long shot chance that there is someone who has the leverage to force a peace deal in Sudan.

Donald Trump (13:02)

It wasn't on my charts because I'm good at settling disputes and I've always been. I've, I've done very well with that over the years.

Noel King (13:17)

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Josh Keating (16:35)

This is Today Explained.

Noel King (16:38)

Vox's Josh Keating covers foreign policy and he's been writing recently about Sudan. Josh, at this point, does it look like either the military or the paramilitary could actually win this war?

Josh Keating (16:52)

There's some thought that this could be entering what strategists call a hurting stalemate, which is the point of a war when both sides are continuing to fight despite knowing that they don't really have a chance to victory. But they're continuing to hurt each other, to afflict casualties on each other, and unfortunately in this case to inflict really horrendous atrocities against the civilian population of Sudan despite the fact that both sides probably aren't going to be able to take over the whole country. So I mean, that's very bad in the short term when you reach that stage. But it's also possible, just possible that it opens up some more room for diplomacy and efforts to de escalate the conflict. As complicated as this war is, the diplomacy is almost more complicated. There's a whole, you know, Alphabet soup and of different groups trying to mediate. But you know, the important one at the moment is a diplomatic grouping which is called the Quad. This consists of the US Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates. So in September, this group of four countries announced a joint proposal for a ceasefire.

Alex Duvall (18:05)

The Quad includes very relevant and very important countries that can make a big difference. There are steps to be taken initially which start with a ceasefire and that's what we're working on. We're working on this for the last almost 10 days with both sides hoping to finalize the details and hopefully have something positive to announce soon.

Josh Keating (18:29)

Neither side was likely to agree to that as long as the fight for Al Fashr was continuing. Going to agree to step down. Shortly after they took the city, the RSF agreed to the ceasefire.

Noel King (18:42)

After two and a half years of civil war in Sudan, there are potential signs of hope. The Rapid Support Forces, or rsf have agreed to a U. S backed ceasefire. The group agreed to a ceasefire. However, the Sudanese army, known as the SAF has yet to do the same.

Alex Duvall (18:58)

The proposal includes a three month humanitarian.

Josh Keating (19:00)

Pause followed by a permanent ceasefire and.

Alex Duvall (19:03)

A nine month transition to civilian rule.

Josh Keating (19:05)

At the same time, they're continuing to launch attacks, including sending, you know, allied paramilitary groups into further east. They're still launching rocket and drone attacks at Khartoum. It'd be a stretch to say, you know, this is we're moving towards peace or de escalation. But even the fact that the RSF was even willing to agree to this, whether they were serious about it or not, that's still like more progress than we've seen in quite a while. On the diplomatic front.

Noel King (19:36)

Three of the countries in the Quad, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are in the region. Right. It makes sense for them to be involved. Then there's the United States. In what way is the US involved here?

Josh Keating (19:49)

Well, the US has traditionally been sort of a major player in Sudanese politics for better or worse.

Donald Trump (19:56)

Last month I announced that the United States was prepared to take new steps.

Noel King (20:01)

If the government of Sudan did not.

Josh Keating (20:03)

Allow the full deployment of a UN Peacekeeping force.

Alex Duvall (20:07)

We know what needs to happen. The government of Sudan must stop its military actions, including aerial bombardments.

Josh Keating (20:14)

It must give aid workers the access they need to save lives. And it must end its support for armed groups inside the south. And, you know, I think Sudan is sort of steadily slid down the list of priorities for the US over successive administrations. This wasn't a major priority of the Biden administration, which, to be fair, had its hands full between, you know, Gaza and Ukraine and rising tensions with China and everything else. And there were signs earlier in the Trump administration it didn't seem like it was going to be high on the list either. That has started to change a little bit in the past few months. The US does seem to be engaged a little more. And I think when President Trump was recently in the Gulf, for all the discussions around the Gaza ceasefire, he was getting an earful from countries in the region that they wanted him to be more involved in Sudan. And I think we are seeing a sort of higher level of engagement on that issue.

Noel King (21:14)

And in fact, Secretary of State Marco Rubio just a few days back was at the G7 and he came out and he said something needs to be.

Josh Keating (21:21)

Done to cut off the weapons and the support that the RSF is getting as they continue with their advances.

Noel King (21:26)

Who is arming this group?

Josh Keating (21:29)

Well, most likely it's the simple answer to that is the uae, the United Arab Emirates. The UAE denies this fact, but it's been pretty well documented by multiple NGOs, media reports, New York Times, Wall Street Journal. There's a leaked UN report. It's a really, you know, kind of worse kept secret that this is what's happening. And so, you know, it was interesting when Rubio said that he was. He was a little vague. He sort of said that support for the RSF needs to stop. He didn't say who needs to do it. And he certainly didn't call out the country that most people believe is the primary supporter of the rsf. And the United Arab Emirates is a major US Ally.

Donald Trump (22:12)

The US Saudi relationship has been a bedrock of security and prosperity. An amazing country. You're a rich country, you can have your choice, but I know you'll never leave my side. I really feel I know that. And, you know, the special relationship that we have in our country has just.

Josh Keating (22:31)

Recently, you know, when Trump was in the Gulf, they announced major defense and, you know, AI investment deals between the two governments.

Donald Trump (22:41)

And with this trip, we're adding over $1 trillion more in terms of investment and investment into our country and buying our. And we really appreciate your confidence and investment. That's your biggest investment that you've ever made. And we really appreciate it. And we're going to treat you very as you should be. Magnificently.

Josh Keating (23:04)

The Trump family, Trump Sons have enormous amount of money in real estate and cryptocurrency deals in Abu Dhabi. So the ties here are pretty close. The good news on that front is it means you could imagine a circumstance where the Trump administration could leverage its close ties with the UAE to apply some pressure to them. They haven't really seemed in a hurry to do that so far to either sort of pressure them diplomatically, at least publicly, or sort of call out the support that pretty much everyone knows is going on.

Noel King (23:37)

The UAE is this very small, very rich in many ways, this very modern country. Why are they arming a paramilitary group that is wreaking havoc in Sudan?

Josh Keating (23:51)

It's a really good question, and it doesn't always seem to make a lot of sense from the outside. The UAE has pursued a strategy throughout the region of backing sort of either rebel or separatist groups in various conflicts to sort of maintain regional influence. They've done this in Libya, in Somalia, in Yemen. So this is kind of part of their mo Specifically in Sudan, there's major gold interests at Place Darfur, which is the main support base for the rsf. Where they're strongest is a major gold mining region. The UAE has emerged as a major gold trading center. And it's pretty well documented that a significant amount of gold is leaving Sudan through channels connected to the leadership of the RSF and heading to the gold trading centers in the United Arab Emirates. And so that's one possible interest. Another is they're very interested in control of ports along the Red Sea. That doesn't really seem to be an achievable goal. And just, you know, I think the widespread coverage of, you know, what happened in Al Fasher, the blood stains on the sand seen from space, the widespread reports of rape being used as a weapon of war. But I do wonder if we're starting to get to the point where the sort of bad publicity they're getting for their ties to the rsf, to a group which, by the way, has also been accused of genocide by a number of foreign governments and NGOs, whether that's starting to outweigh whatever strategic benefit they're getting by continuing to support them in this war.

Noel King (25:36)

President Trump loves nothing more than being able to say that he ended a conflict.

Donald Trump (25:42)

I do it nicely. I don't need to do it, I guess. But if I can take time and save millions of lives, that's really a great thing. I can't think of anything better to do.

Noel King (25:51)

He wants the Nobel Peace Prize. We know that.

Donald Trump (25:53)

I can't think of any president that ever solved one war. I don't think anybody. They start wars, they don't solve them. So nothing like this has been done in history.

Noel King (26:02)

Is a ceasefire a real possibility with a president like Trump and a region that seems interested in getting this done?

Josh Keating (26:10)

It's a really complicated conflict and Trump often has a habit of oversimplifying these things, but he would love to be able to announce that he's the one to brought peace to Sudan in his ongoing quest to get a Nobel Peace Prize. Over the last few years, there have been three major conflicts in the world that have caused most of the casualties and most of the humanitarian disasters. It's Ukraine, Gaza and Sudan. We don't hear as much about that, that third one, but we probably should. It's like in the same league in terms of number of casualties and the number of countries involved and how complex it is. In the lead up to the Gaza ceasefire, I think we saw that his relationships in the Gulf, as sort of like, ethically and legally questionable as they may be, do kind of allow him to do business in that part of the world in a way that sort of traditional US diplomacy has not always. And I think, like, the best hope we have now is that he can sort of bring the outside actors together, get them on the same page, and hopefully that can have some impact on the ground in Sudan and bring an end to this sort of dizzyingly complex and really destructive war.

Noel King (27:37)

Josh Keating, you can find him writing@vox.com Today's show was produced by Danielle Hewitt and edited by Aminah Elsadi and Miranda Kennedy. It was fact checked by Hadi Mwagdi and Melissa Hirsch. And our engineers are Patrick Boyd and Adrian Lilly. The rest of the team, Avishai, Artsy, Miles, Bryan, Peter Balanon Rose and Kelly Wessinger. Ariana Esputu, Sean Ramas, Firm Asted Herndon and Jolie Myers. We used music by Breakmaster. Cylinder Today Explained is distributed by WNYC and the show is a part of the Vox Media podcast network. Podcast VC Vox Media.com for more Vox.com members for a membership sale, Vox is on Patreon now. If you join us on Patreon, you can check out the docket. It's a new video series that takes you inside the court cases that I'm told are redefining the rules of power in America. Patreon.com Vox for the docket and other exclusives. If you are already a Vox member. If you already took advantage of the sale, you can check your email to set up a complimentary account. I'm Noel King. It's today explained.