China is winning

Episode Overview

Podcast: Today, Explained
Episode Title: China is winning
Date: January 12, 2026
Host(s): Myles Bryant (guest host)
Guests: John Zinn (Brookings Institution), Don Weinland (The Economist, Shanghai)

In this episode, Today, Explained explores how, after a tumultuous year in geopolitics and trade, China has emerged stronger economically and culturally on the world stage, particularly in its dynamic with the United States under Trump’s second term. The episode breaks down what “winning” means for China: strategic gains in trade negotiations, increased leverage over the U.S., and the growth of its cultural exports—ranging from collectible toys to hit animated films and globally buzzed-about video games.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Geopolitical Context: Trump’s America vs. the World

[00:00–02:00]
- Myles Bryant sets the scene: Trump’s aggressive foreign policy has put nations like Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran on the defensive, while China, having endured a major trade war, has managed not just to weather but to win.
- China's strategic and cultural confidence are on display: “China went toe to toe with Trump in the trade war over the last year and won. And on top of that, China's culture has been having a moment.” (Myles Bryant, 00:25)
- Introduction of key guests and their backgrounds.

2. Under the Hood: How China Played Trump

[02:04–11:57] (Myles Bryant & John Zinn)
- Trade Negotiations Reset:
  - John Zinn argues China maneuvered the Trump administration into narrowing the bilateral agenda, focusing mostly on trade imbalances (soybeans, TikTok, etc.), rather than wider security issues:
    “What the Chinese have successfully done... is whittled down the conversation... focused on particular sectors and particular firms... And I think all of that is kind of a win for China.” (John Zinn, 02:33)
- Status at End of Biden Administration:
  - U.S.-China relations had hit a “relative high point.” Despite competitive undertones, there was cooperation (notably over fentanyl restrictions) and a final tightening of export controls by the U.S.:
    “The Biden administration kind of tying up some loose ends and tightening some of the export controls and technology controls on China...” (John Zinn, 04:09)
- China Preparing for Trump 2.0:
  - Chinese government and officials responded proactively to U.S. moves, anticipating Trump’s election and “gearing up” for another round of confrontation.
- The Big Tariff Drama of 2025:
  - Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on “nearly every country,” kick-starting what seemed to be a new economic cold war (05:31). China, however, felt ready; leaders displayed “no anger or anxiety” (06:00).
  - China retaliated with rare earth export controls, wielding a key advantage: “These are basically elements that go in everything... So these are a loose thread in the supply chain. If you start to pull on it, it can unravel a lot of different industries.” (John Zinn, 07:05)
  - The U.S. escalated tariffs to 145% before rolling back to a 47% framework deal (07:55), effectively relaxing some export controls—a tangible win for China.
- Trump’s Approach: From Decoupling to Deal-Making:
  - Trump’s administration ended up seeking negotiation: “Ultimately he wants some kind of deal. And I think it is a core part of his political persona...” (John Zinn, 09:01)
  - This evolution is described as “a departure, but in some ways... back to the future,” echoing past administrations’ approaches to China.
- China’s Long Game and Accrued Leverage:
  - Xi Jinping, in contrast to Trump, plays for strategic advantage:
    “He’s not really interested in making a deal. He is kind of playing the longer game... they have in fact accrued a lot of leverage.” (John Zinn, 10:43)
  - China is “mindful of the upcoming midterm elections” and could exploit Trump’s desire for a “big deal” closer to the cycle (11:57).

3. Cultural Soft Power: China’s Breakout Year

[16:05–27:36] (Myles Bryant & Don Weinland)

3.1 The Soft Power Gap & New Momentum

“China massively under punches on its cultural exports... Second biggest economy... an incredible manufacturing power... yet on cultural exports, it’s really not doing very well.” (Don Weinland, 16:30)
2025 marked a shift, as several Chinese cultural products broke into the global mainstream.

3.2 Labubu & Pop Mart: "Ugly Cute" Goes Global

Segment: [17:10–19:17]
- The Labubu collectible doll, made by Pop Mart, became an international craze beginning in 2024 and exploded in 2025.
- “They’re often described as being ugly, cute... collector’s items... kind of like baseball cards in a way.” (Don Weinland, 18:50)
- Blind-box purchases and collectible culture fueled the trend.

3.3 Film: "Najatu" Shakes Up the Market

Segment: [19:38–21:03]
- “Nutja 2,” an animated film based on a traditional Chinese myth, became the highest grossing animated film ever—primarily in China, but with noticeable reach abroad.
- Chinese leaders publicly cited the film as a cultural success:
  “They were pointing to what they see as a success, a cultural success. So that kind of tells you something about how important this movie was.” (Don Weinland, 20:35)
- Notable Quote: “The animation in 'Najatu 2' should make Hollywood sweat.” (John Zinn, 20:26)

3.4 Video Games: "Black Myth Wukong" Goes Viral

Segment: [21:03–22:07]
- “Incredibly popular within China, but also overseas... So cinematic... The areas in China that it takes place in started getting a bunch of tourists visiting them. So this type of cultural product can generate economic growth... in areas like tourism.” (Don Weinland, 21:23)
- A sign of the ripple effect cultural exports can have.

3.5 Why Now? Who’s Behind the Boom?

Segment: [22:07–25:12]
- Creators are mostly in their late 30s and 40s, educated when China’s internet was open to foreign ideas.
  - “A group of people that had access to a lot of foreign ideas. I think they absorbed a lot of foreign culture. That’s one thing.” (Don Weinland, 22:18)
- Increased funding and shifting government priorities have supported more ambitious projects.
- Persistent regulatory barriers limit the edginess of cultural content (no “raunchy” themes, haunted houses, etc.), making risk-averse creators.
  - Example: "State canceled" pop star edited out with a puff of fog on stage (25:14).

3.6 What’s Next for Chinese Soft Power?

Segment: [25:45–27:36]
- More everyday Chinese goods (like tea and bubble tea brands) could enter the U.S. market, shifting perceptions:
  “If you start buying well-made Chinese products, it could change your mind about China.” (Don Weinland, 26:12)
- Youth-oriented products in film and toys are likely to expand further internationally.
- “I don't think Labubu is going away anytime soon. Pop Mart is going to keep cranking out these strange, ugly, cute dolls.” (Don Weinland, 25:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On China’s strategic win:
“We are narrowly scoped... on particular sectors and... products like soybeans. And I think all of that is kind of a win for China.” — John Zinn (02:33)
On Trump’s tariffs and their reversal:
“You may be confused about what the tariff rates are and if you are, then you’re certainly not alone.” — John Zinn (07:05)
On contrasting negotiation styles:
“Dealmaking is such an important part of Trump’s political persona... Xi’s not really interested in making a deal.” — John Zinn (10:21)
On soft power and cultural exports:
“The animation in Najatu 2 should make Hollywood sweat.” — John Zinn (20:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[00:00] – Scene-setting: Trump’s foreign policy and Chinese confidence
[02:33] – John Zinn explains China’s strategic trade posture under Trump
[06:00] – Reaction inside China to U.S. tariffs; rare earth retaliation
[09:01] – Trump’s real motivation: The dealmaker, not the decoupler
[10:21] – Xi Jinping’s negotiation style and long-term leverage
[16:30] – Don Weinland on China’s culture export challenges
[18:19] – Labubu: How a Chinese toy became a global craze
[19:38] – Nutja 2: Animated myth, domestic and international hit
[21:03] – Black Myth Wukong: Video games driving economic growth and soft power
[22:18] – Who’s making China’s new cultural wave, and why now?
[25:12] – Chinese censorship and its effect on pop culture
[26:12] – Predicting the next wave: Tea brands and child-oriented exports

Conclusion

“China is winning” examines how, in a year of economic brinkmanship and cultural shifts, China succeeded in shaping both the agenda and the outcomes of its engagement with the United States, while making real strides in exporting its culture globally. With a long game mentality, newfound cultural momentum, and keen awareness of U.S. political cycles, China is not just surviving U.S. pressure—it’s thriving.

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Geopolitical Context: Trump’s America vs. the World

[00:00–02:00]
- Myles Bryant sets the scene: Trump’s aggressive foreign policy has put nations like Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran on the defensive, while China, having endured a major trade war, has managed not just to weather but to win.
- China's strategic and cultural confidence are on display: “China went toe to toe with Trump in the trade war over the last year and won. And on top of that, China's culture has been having a moment.” (Myles Bryant, 00:25)
- Introduction of key guests and their backgrounds.

2. Under the Hood: How China Played Trump

[02:04–11:57] (Myles Bryant & John Zinn)
- Trade Negotiations Reset:
  - John Zinn argues China maneuvered the Trump administration into narrowing the bilateral agenda, focusing mostly on trade imbalances (soybeans, TikTok, etc.), rather than wider security issues:
    “What the Chinese have successfully done... is whittled down the conversation... focused on particular sectors and particular firms... And I think all of that is kind of a win for China.” (John Zinn, 02:33)
- Status at End of Biden Administration:
  - U.S.-China relations had hit a “relative high point.” Despite competitive undertones, there was cooperation (notably over fentanyl restrictions) and a final tightening of export controls by the U.S.:
    “The Biden administration kind of tying up some loose ends and tightening some of the export controls and technology controls on China...” (John Zinn, 04:09)
- China Preparing for Trump 2.0:
  - Chinese government and officials responded proactively to U.S. moves, anticipating Trump’s election and “gearing up” for another round of confrontation.
- The Big Tariff Drama of 2025:
  - Trump imposes sweeping tariffs on “nearly every country,” kick-starting what seemed to be a new economic cold war (05:31). China, however, felt ready; leaders displayed “no anger or anxiety” (06:00).
  - China retaliated with rare earth export controls, wielding a key advantage: “These are basically elements that go in everything... So these are a loose thread in the supply chain. If you start to pull on it, it can unravel a lot of different industries.” (John Zinn, 07:05)
  - The U.S. escalated tariffs to 145% before rolling back to a 47% framework deal (07:55), effectively relaxing some export controls—a tangible win for China.
- Trump’s Approach: From Decoupling to Deal-Making:
  - Trump’s administration ended up seeking negotiation: “Ultimately he wants some kind of deal. And I think it is a core part of his political persona...” (John Zinn, 09:01)
  - This evolution is described as “a departure, but in some ways... back to the future,” echoing past administrations’ approaches to China.
- China’s Long Game and Accrued Leverage:
  - Xi Jinping, in contrast to Trump, plays for strategic advantage:
    “He’s not really interested in making a deal. He is kind of playing the longer game... they have in fact accrued a lot of leverage.” (John Zinn, 10:43)
  - China is “mindful of the upcoming midterm elections” and could exploit Trump’s desire for a “big deal” closer to the cycle (11:57).

3. Cultural Soft Power: China’s Breakout Year

[16:05–27:36] (Myles Bryant & Don Weinland)

3.1 The Soft Power Gap & New Momentum

“China massively under punches on its cultural exports... Second biggest economy... an incredible manufacturing power... yet on cultural exports, it’s really not doing very well.” (Don Weinland, 16:30)
2025 marked a shift, as several Chinese cultural products broke into the global mainstream.

3.2 Labubu & Pop Mart: "Ugly Cute" Goes Global

Segment: [17:10–19:17]
- The Labubu collectible doll, made by Pop Mart, became an international craze beginning in 2024 and exploded in 2025.
- “They’re often described as being ugly, cute... collector’s items... kind of like baseball cards in a way.” (Don Weinland, 18:50)
- Blind-box purchases and collectible culture fueled the trend.

3.3 Film: "Najatu" Shakes Up the Market

Segment: [19:38–21:03]
- “Nutja 2,” an animated film based on a traditional Chinese myth, became the highest grossing animated film ever—primarily in China, but with noticeable reach abroad.
- Chinese leaders publicly cited the film as a cultural success:
  “They were pointing to what they see as a success, a cultural success. So that kind of tells you something about how important this movie was.” (Don Weinland, 20:35)
- Notable Quote: “The animation in 'Najatu 2' should make Hollywood sweat.” (John Zinn, 20:26)

3.4 Video Games: "Black Myth Wukong" Goes Viral

Segment: [21:03–22:07]
- “Incredibly popular within China, but also overseas... So cinematic... The areas in China that it takes place in started getting a bunch of tourists visiting them. So this type of cultural product can generate economic growth... in areas like tourism.” (Don Weinland, 21:23)
- A sign of the ripple effect cultural exports can have.

3.5 Why Now? Who’s Behind the Boom?

Segment: [22:07–25:12]
- Creators are mostly in their late 30s and 40s, educated when China’s internet was open to foreign ideas.
  - “A group of people that had access to a lot of foreign ideas. I think they absorbed a lot of foreign culture. That’s one thing.” (Don Weinland, 22:18)
- Increased funding and shifting government priorities have supported more ambitious projects.
- Persistent regulatory barriers limit the edginess of cultural content (no “raunchy” themes, haunted houses, etc.), making risk-averse creators.
  - Example: "State canceled" pop star edited out with a puff of fog on stage (25:14).

3.6 What’s Next for Chinese Soft Power?

Segment: [25:45–27:36]
- More everyday Chinese goods (like tea and bubble tea brands) could enter the U.S. market, shifting perceptions:
  “If you start buying well-made Chinese products, it could change your mind about China.” (Don Weinland, 26:12)
- Youth-oriented products in film and toys are likely to expand further internationally.
- “I don't think Labubu is going away anytime soon. Pop Mart is going to keep cranking out these strange, ugly, cute dolls.” (Don Weinland, 25:53)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On China’s strategic win:
“We are narrowly scoped... on particular sectors and... products like soybeans. And I think all of that is kind of a win for China.” — John Zinn (02:33)
On Trump’s tariffs and their reversal:
“You may be confused about what the tariff rates are and if you are, then you’re certainly not alone.” — John Zinn (07:05)
On contrasting negotiation styles:
“Dealmaking is such an important part of Trump’s political persona... Xi’s not really interested in making a deal.” — John Zinn (10:21)
On soft power and cultural exports:
“The animation in Najatu 2 should make Hollywood sweat.” — John Zinn (20:26)

Timestamps for Key Segments

[00:00] – Scene-setting: Trump’s foreign policy and Chinese confidence
[02:33] – John Zinn explains China’s strategic trade posture under Trump
[06:00] – Reaction inside China to U.S. tariffs; rare earth retaliation
[09:01] – Trump’s real motivation: The dealmaker, not the decoupler
[10:21] – Xi Jinping’s negotiation style and long-term leverage
[16:30] – Don Weinland on China’s culture export challenges
[18:19] – Labubu: How a Chinese toy became a global craze
[19:38] – Nutja 2: Animated myth, domestic and international hit
[21:03] – Black Myth Wukong: Video games driving economic growth and soft power
[22:18] – Who’s making China’s new cultural wave, and why now?
[25:12] – Chinese censorship and its effect on pop culture
[26:12] – Predicting the next wave: Tea brands and child-oriented exports

wavePod

Summary

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Geopolitical Context: Trump’s America vs. the World

2. Under the Hood: How China Played Trump

3. Cultural Soft Power: China’s Breakout Year

3.1 The Soft Power Gap & New Momentum

3.2 Labubu & Pop Mart: "Ugly Cute" Goes Global

3.3 Film: "Najatu" Shakes Up the Market

3.4 Video Games: "Black Myth Wukong" Goes Viral

3.5 Why Now? Who’s Behind the Boom?

3.6 What’s Next for Chinese Soft Power?

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Conclusion

Transcript

Summary

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Geopolitical Context: Trump’s America vs. the World

2. Under the Hood: How China Played Trump

3. Cultural Soft Power: China’s Breakout Year

3.1 The Soft Power Gap & New Momentum

3.2 Labubu & Pop Mart: "Ugly Cute" Goes Global

3.3 Film: "Najatu" Shakes Up the Market

3.4 Video Games: "Black Myth Wukong" Goes Viral

3.5 Why Now? Who’s Behind the Boom?

3.6 What’s Next for Chinese Soft Power?

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

Timestamps for Key Segments

Conclusion