Today, Explained – "China is winning the Iran war"

Date: April 29, 2026
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram, Noel King
Guests: James Palmer (Deputy Editor, Foreign Policy), Akshat Rathi (Senior Climate Reporter, Bloomberg News)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the global reverberations of America's war in Iran, with a specific focus on how China is unexpectedly benefiting both strategically and economically. Hosts speak with James Palmer about China's strategic observations and alliances, before shifting to Akshat Rathi to discuss how the conflict is quickly accelerating the global transition to renewable energy, largely benefiting Chinese industry.

Key Discussion Points

1. Global Fallout from the Iran War

• Allies Withholding Support: The episode opens with reports that even America's closest allies (e.g., the UK, Germany, Spain) are not supporting the US military campaign in Iran.
  • [00:02] King Charles' US visit is described as a reminder: “even America's closest allies are not on board with the war in Iran.”
• Worldwide Impact: The effects of the war include rising gas and food prices, disruptions to travel, job losses, and instability in entire industries.
• China's Quiet Gains: While the world strains under the conflict, China is capitalizing on the situation in multiple ways.

2. China's Strategic Calculus in the Iran War

• Monitoring US Military Behavior:
  • [02:11] James Palmer: “China's watching this war very closely. ...One of the things they've noticed this time is just how fast America's burning through its munitions.”
  • [02:31] “...about half of [the US Patriot missile] stockpile has been used.”
• Worries about US Munitions:
  • US industrial capacity is insufficient for quick replenishment of high-tech munitions.
  • Palmer notes: “They were designed to be essentially craft produce or bespoke produce, like you'd buy them on Etsy or something.” [04:35]
  • China, by contrast, has worked steadily since the 2010s to domestic supply chains, fix strategic weaknesses, and build out mass production.
• Comparative Lessons:
  • Palmer draws WWII parallels: America’s mass production was decisive, not always equipment quality.
  • Doubts about American weapons’ “quality” now creep in, as Iran—a far less powerful opponent—displays surprising resilience.
    • [06:38] “Despite all of the hits that the Iranian military has taken, they still do have ballistic missile capabilities.”
    • Palmer: “It may also be that America has been overestimating its own capabilities even against a country that isn't a peer opponent.” [06:52]
• China Sees Multiple Lessons:
  • As the US struggles to force outcomes in Iran, China wonders if a similar strategy could succeed against it.
  • Palmer: “For all of America's power...it's not able to force the reopening of the Strait. It's not able to keep those waters safe.” [08:07]

Memorable Quote

• On US overreach:
  • Palmer: “China wants to know how this will affect any potential conflict with the US in the Asia Pacific in the future.” [03:08]

3. China and Iran: A Marriage of Convenience

• Strong, Pragmatic Ties:
  • Palmer: “It's very odd because, of course...China is a communist state and the Iranian regime has regularly murdered communists in the past...Iran is all about protecting Muslims, and China is the world's greatest persecutor of Muslims...But it's a very practical relationship.” [03:20]
  • Shared interests are commercial and geopolitical: “They see themselves as both opposed to the United States.” [03:20]
  • Iran acts as a fellow “victim of the current world order” alongside China.

4. Implications for Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific

• Resource Redeployment:
  • US is shifting carriers and missile defense from Asia to the Middle East—raising tensions about its ability to respond in a Taiwan scenario.
• Minimum Imminent Danger:
  • Palmer: “Any Taiwan scenario, we get tons of warning.” [09:14] He downplays fears, emphasizing robust US surveillance and base infrastructure in Asia.
  • The real cost to the US is political credibility among its allies, as demonstrated when the US withdrew the THAAD missile system from South Korea, angering both Korea and China.
    • Palmer: “The Americans are treating [South Korea] like shit...” [10:39]
• Fragility of US Alliances:
  • With Trump’s foreign policy approach, “goodwill falling apart...is going to affect our readiness.” [11:27]

Notable Moment

• On alliances:
  • Palmer: “America's entire power projection in the Asia Pacific is very dependent on allies.” [11:27]

5. It’s Not “All Win” for China

• War Disrupts China Too:
  • Palmer: “The closure of the Strait is still a big problem for them... China feels the pain as much as anybody else... they would still really like to see a peace.” [12:16]

[Break/Transition]

Omitted per instructions: ads and non-content material.

6. War and the Unexpected Surge of Renewables (w/ Akshat Rathi)

• China: World's Largest Energy Consumer
  • Rathi: “It consumes essentially more of everything, oil, coal, gas, and, of course, a bunch of renewables.” [16:49]
  • China has long sought to secure energy independence by developing domestic renewables.
• Pre-War Chinese Clean Tech Dominance
  • “China has been the world's largest manufacturer of almost all clean energy technologies: solar panels, wind turbines, lithium ion batteries, electric cars, [and] electrolyzers.” [18:26]
  • “China can make about 1 terawatt of solar panels per year...35% more capacity than the world currently is deploying.” [19:09]
  • By 2030 China’s battery capacity will be able to meet three times expected global demand. [19:36]

Memorable Detail

• [19:00] “Two years ago, this was just a desert. We've since installed 6 million solar panels, 2 million of them...in less than six months.”

• Short-term Impact: Clean Tech Boom

  • As the Iran war closes the Strait of Hormuz and spikes oil prices, China enjoys record exports of clean energy tech.
  • Rathi: “The month of March saw record exports of clean energy technologies from China, about $22 billion worth.” [21:00]
  • Europe and Asia see spikes in demand for rooftop solar and EV chargers, with used EV sales booming. [20:44]

• Long-Term Trends: Global Energy Transition Accelerates

  • The war has pushed countries to double down on renewables for energy security, not just climate reasons.
  • Philippines, for example, is accelerating solar installations, offering loans for rooftop panels, and relying on Chinese suppliers. [22:11–23:06]
  • Some countries are burning more coal domestically, but policy signals suggest lasting switches to clean energy.

Notable Quotes

• Rathi: “The world sees now clean energy as an energy security option, just as it used to see fossil fuels as the energy security option.” [17:45]
• On US backsliding: “We're getting rid of the falsely named renewables, by the way, they're a joke.” (attributing Trump, [23:54])
• Rathi: “It is now the economic choice. And then climate is an added benefit.” [25:35]

7. Is the War “Good” for Clean Energy?

• Hosts question whether this painful moment is, paradoxically, a turning point for renewables.
  • Rathi: “I don't know if there's anything really good from a war even if it’s going to really speed up the clean energy transition. But you are right, it just might.” [25:35]
  • Reminds listeners of the oil crises of the 1970s, when energy shocks propelled major innovation and fuel shifts (e.g., US vehicle fuel efficiency, nuclear power, Japanese automaker rise).

Important Timestamps & Memorable Moments

• 00:02 — Allied unease about the Iran war; King Charles’ subtle rebuke in DC.
• 02:11–03:08 — How China is studying US military exhaustion and global alliances.
• 04:15–05:35 — Palmer’s critique of US defense preparedness and China’s industrial adaptation.
• 08:07 — Insight into how Iran’s resilience is reframing expectations for US force projection.
• 09:14–10:39 — Impacts of US resource redeployment and previous diplomatic spats in Asia.
• 12:16 — China also suffers from oil/gas disruption and wants a ceasefire.
• 16:49 — Rathi’s rundown of China’s energy consumption and planning.
• 19:09–20:28 — Scale of China’s manufacturing of clean tech and immediate effect of the war (record exports).
• 22:11–23:06 — Philippines’ rapid energy transition as a microcosm of global shifts.
• 25:35 — Historical context: crises accelerating energy transitions.

Conclusion

“China is winning the Iran war” demonstrates how conflicts with global implications often result in unexpected winners. China capitalizes both strategically—by learning from US military overextension—and economically, as the global rush for energy security turbocharges its already world-leading renewable technologies. However, as the experts note, while China may be gaining, it is playing a high-stakes game with plenty of downsides, and the ultimate effect may be the rapid acceleration of the global energy transition rather than any one nation's geopolitical triumph.

Selected Notable Quotes

• James Palmer:

  • “They were designed to be essentially craft produce or bespoke produce, like you'd buy them on Etsy or something.” [04:35]
  • “The Americans are treating [South Korea] like shit...” [10:39]

• Akshat Rathi:

  • “It is now the economic choice. And then climate is an added benefit.” [25:35]
  • “The world sees now clean energy as an energy security option, just as it used to see fossil fuels as the energy security option.” [17:45]

For Further Listening

This episode provides a nuanced overview for those seeking to understand the ripple effects of the Iran conflict and why “winning” may look very different when the whole energy and security paradigm shifts—as it is doing now, led by China.