Today, Explained – “Even Trump voters are mad” (Jan 31, 2026)
Podcast: Today, Explained (Vox)
Host: Ested Herndon
Guests: John Fredericks (Conservative radio host), Sarah Longwell (Publisher, The Bulwark; Focus Group Podcast host)
Episode Overview
This episode dives into President Trump’s historically low approval ratings and growing public (even MAGA) discontent, especially following the recent killings of anti-ICE protesters in Minnesota. Host Ested Herndon seeks a grassroots pulse-check: Are even Trump’s most devoted supporters wavering, and how real—and politically consequential—is this apparent backlash? Herndon first speaks with conservative talk-show host John Fredericks and then Sarah Longwell, a focus group expert, to probe voter sentiment and the deeper shifts within the Republican base.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Comparing Trump’s First and Second Terms
[02:15–03:06]
- Fredericks’ rating: Gives Trump’s second term a “10 out of 10,” citing fulfilled promises on the border, booming economy (as he frames it), and reduced White House drama.
- Surprise factor: Fredericks is surprised by Trump’s focus on foreign policy, which, while aspirational, is distracting from core voter concerns such as affordability and quality-of-life issues.
- Fredericks admits: “The risk of this is people elected him not for foreign policy views… That hasn't come yet. And the window's closing, going to the midterms.” [03:19]
2. Discrepancy Between MAGA Faith and Poll Numbers
[03:46–05:54]
- Approval plummet: Trump’s approval is at new lows, especially among independents, nonwhite voters, and young people.
- Fredericks argues: He blames poor GOP messaging and says economic improvements are coming—but voters haven’t yet “felt” the benefits.
- Critical quote: “The electorate needs to know as far as economic statistics is their grocery bill. That's all you need.” – John Fredericks [05:07]
- Acknowledges Trump’s accountability: “If you can't buy a home… Trump's fault, as it should be, because he’s now going to be accountable.” [05:24]
3. The Epstein Files and Right-Wing Criticism
[05:54–06:53]
- Conservative gripes: Even some right-wing voters are angry about Trump’s slow-walk of the Epstein files, including ex-congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and callers to Fredericks’ show.
- Fredericks concedes: “Epstein files should have been released immediately. Whatever's in there, in there?” [06:49]
- Frustration with White House priorities: Critiques administrative distractions and lack of follow-through.
4. Handling of Recent ICE Protester Killings
[07:15–08:55]
- Fredericks’ criticism (from the right): Wanted a stronger response—deployment of troops per Trump’s threats—believing it could have prevented deaths.
- Nuanced discontent: “If you say you’re going to send in the troops and do the Insurrection Act, you back it up.” [07:17]
- Public discomfort: Even among supporters, there’s unease about aggressive enforcement—“when we see on TV the way they're getting them out, they don't like it. It's uncomfortable to people.” [08:55]
5. 2026 Midterms: Republican Alarm Bells
[09:34–10:42]
- Fredericks as Cassandra: “I'm like Paul Revere. If we don't get this thing going, we're gonna get wiped out.” [09:50]
- Democrats poised to win: If economic improvements don’t materialize fast, and disturbing images from Minneapolis persist, Republicans face a rout.
- Regarding Minneapolis: “Obviously it hurt…I mean, nobody likes seeing innocent people killed, regardless of the circumstance by law enforcement, period. Nobody likes it.” [10:42]
6. Insights from the Political Center: Focus Groups with Sarah Longwell
[13:45–18:03]
- Backlash roots: Discontent is “largely about prices and affordability. And that's not going to come as a shock…” – Sarah Longwell [13:47]
- Sense of betrayal: “There is a heavy sense of betrayal from voters” because Trump explicitly promised a rapid reduction in prices, especially groceries.
- Initial patience faded: Voters’ earlier willingness to “give him time” has evaporated.
- Immigration enforcement nuance: “I have not heard them change their view on immigration. I have heard them change their view on the way ICE is enforcing their immigration policy.” [16:58]
- Voters’ wish-list: 1) Secure the border; 2) Deport dangerous criminals—NOT blanket, aggressive roundups or family separations.
- Voter quote (focus group): “There was a way to get it back in control in another way… I do feel some force was necessary, but I don't know if he needed to immediately just shoot her.” [16:22]
7. Affordability as the Political Prism
[18:03–19:48]
- Everything judged by the wallet: Even previously overlookable Trump behaviors become political liabilities when people feel squeezed.
- Historical echo: “People will forgive you a lot if the economy's doing well…” – Sarah Longwell [18:48]
8. Implications for 2026 and Beyond
[20:07–21:18]
- 2026 midterms: Backlash likely to help Democrats; high Democratic midterm turnout gives them a “huge structural advantage.”
- Long-term party identity crisis: Without Trump, the GOP faces internal fractures—between ‘America First’ hardliners (MTG, Carlson) and MAGA establishment (Vance, Rubio, Johnson).
- JD Vance skepticism: “Let me tell you, listening to voters, they do not care for J.D. Vance.” – Sarah Longwell [22:50]
9. The Elusive ‘Red Line’
[21:54–23:14]
- Trump’s Teflon grip: The big question remains: Will anything break Trump’s hold on the Republican base? For now, even tragic or controversial moments are refracted through economic grievances and shifting priorities.
Memorable Quotes (with Timestamps)
-
“[Trump’s] done. He's delivered on virtually every promise he's made. The economy is booming right now… 10. I can't think of anything he didn't do.”
— John Fredericks [02:30] -
“The only thing the electorate needs to know as far as economic statistics is their grocery bill… If that continues to go up… you know, Trump's economy's failed. Doesn't matter whose fault it is.”
— John Fredericks [05:07] -
“Epstein files should have been released immediately. Whatever's in there, in there?”
— John Fredericks [06:53] -
“I didn't like what just happened in Minneapolis. I think if you say you're going to send in the troops…you back it up…. Both those people would be alive today because they wouldn't have been able to confront ICE agents.”
— John Fredericks [07:15] -
“If we don't get this thing going, we're gonna get wiped out… Democrats are tough. They win. Trump's getting impeached on probably day three, maybe four… He's done so the administration's over.”
— John Fredericks [09:50] -
“The discontent has been brewing for a while, and it is largely about prices and affordability… there is a heavy sense of betrayal from voters.”
— Sarah Longwell [13:45] -
“Voters will forgive you a lot if the economy's doing well and they feel like they are getting ahead in their own lives…”
— Sarah Longwell [18:48] -
“You had to secure the border and deport dangerous criminals… They did not want bands of masked agents roaming the streets, knocking down doors, waiting outside of schools…”
— Sarah Longwell [17:07] -
“Let me tell you, listening to voters, they do not care for JD Vance… they don't find him compelling.”
— Sarah Longwell [22:50]
Important Timestamps
- 02:15 – Comparing Trump’s first and second term; Fredericks’ enthusiasm.
- 03:46 – Discussion of approval rating drops and public mood.
- 05:54 – Trump’s handling of Epstein files causes right-wing frustration.
- 07:15 – Minneapolis protester killings; Fredericks’ right-flank criticism.
- 09:50 – Fredericks sounds the alarm for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
- 13:45 – Sarah Longwell on roots of public backlash.
- 16:58 – Voter reactions to immigration enforcement tactics.
- 18:48 – Core role of affordability in voter sentiment.
- 20:07 – Midterm turnout advantage for Democrats, party identity future.
- 21:54 – Will anything break Trump’s GOP hold?
Tone and Language
The conversation is frank, urgent, and layered:
- Fredericks vacillates from stalwart defense to genuine worries about Trump’s vulnerabilities and the discomfort among his base.
- Longwell is analytical, data-driven, foregrounding voter psychology and political trends, but remains engaging and relatable with anecdotes from focus groups.
Conclusion
Even among MAGA-foot soldiers, cracks are showing. Economic pain, policy overreach, and PR fumbles in immigration have tested presidential loyalty. Republican strategists are nervously eyeing the 2026 midterms as public patience runs thin. Meanwhile, Democrats’ prospects look brighter in off-year elections, but big questions remain about post-Trump conservatism and whether any “red line” can truly snap the GOP’s MAGA backbone.
Listeners walk away with an unusually granular look at the shifting political Earth under Trump’s feet—and a sobering sense of just how volatile the next year in American politics could be.