Today, Explained – "Fear and uncertainty in Venezuela" (December 8, 2025)

Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the ongoing uncertainty and fear in Venezuela sparked by recent U.S. military actions at sea and threats of possible land interventions. With President Trump’s rhetoric escalating and the country's economic hardship deepening, hosts Noel King and Sean Rameswaram talk to Ana Vanessa Herrero (Washington Post reporter in Caracas) and John Lee Anderson (New Yorker journalist who has interviewed Nicolás Maduro) to explore Venezuelan reactions, the political landscape, and how ordinary people are living through overlapping crises.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. U.S. Military Actions and Venezuelan Reactions

• Boat Strikes as Anti-Drug Efforts

  • President Trump has justified recent U.S. attacks against boats off Venezuela's coast as necessary to stem fentanyl trafficking into the U.S.
  • Announcement of possible escalation to land strikes ("We’re going to start doing it on land, too." – Trump via John Lee Anderson, 00:28).

• Atmosphere within Venezuela

  • Ana Vanessa Herrero notes that the Venezuelan public's response is fragmented:
    • Coastal fishers in places like Sucre are anxious and feel unsafe.
    • Most Venezuelans, however, focus on daily economic survival rather than military threats.
  • "The reaction is not a unified reaction... Venezuelans are really not focusing on the attacks on the vessels, but focusing on the economy." (02:43)

2. The Lingering Economic Crisis

• Hyperinflation and Daily Anxiety
  • Periods of hyperinflation in previous years haunt Venezuelans while economic stability remains elusive.
  • Triple-digit inflation, a devalued currency, and unstable markets remain key concerns.
  • Economic anxiety fuels hesitation around investing or even saving:
    • "Everyone has like PTSD right now. Everyone is getting ready just in case we're going to have to suffer 2016, 17 or 18 again." (03:37)
    • “Now every person that has some money to invest is really insecure of doing so because... what if tomorrow, you know, the U.S. attacks Venezuela?” (04:48)

3. The Fear of War – and a Strange Resignation

• Rumors of U.S. Invasion

  • Herrero explains that among people she’s interviewed, there is anxiety about all-out war but most believe any U.S. intervention would be swift:
    • “They do fear something is going to happen... But everyone agrees on one thing. If any of those happen, they do believe it’s going to be really quick.” (06:16)
  • Remarkably, few outright reject the idea of U.S. strikes as a last resort due to hopes of ending Maduro’s regime, although censorship mutes public discussion.

• Maduro’s Supporters Rally

  • Escalating external threats have unified Maduro’s base. The regime doubles down on anti-U.S. rhetoric.
    • “Raise your hand if you want to be a slave, he said to Venezuelans. Raise your hand if you want Venezuela to become a Yankee colony.” – John Lee Anderson (09:08)
    • Ana Vanessa notes, "There was never a threat, but now there is actually. There's a palpable threat that proves him so right." (09:19)

4. Everyday Life: Coping Strategies and Uncertainty

• Tension without Panic

  • Public response varies with the news cycle:
    • In periods of heightened rhetoric, some stockpile essentials (“You're definitely going to see people buying more food, more water...” – 10:01).
    • Generally, people attempt to preserve normalcy, balancing caution and resignation:
      "People are just trying to live their daily lives. People are still going to work. We are not seeing people running to the supermarkets... It's not the reaction you would expect." (10:35)
  • Information is so scarce and unclear, people act based on rumors or government messaging.

• Maduro’s Public Posture

  • Despite threats, Maduro projects calm and encourages public celebration (especially for the holidays), portraying the threat as psychological warfare:
    • “He actually said that that was like a national mandate for people to push party all week long...” (11:42)
    • Ana Vanessa Herrero: “He claims this is just a psychological war that they've survived in the past.” (11:59)

The Maduro Regime: A Closer Look

5. Maduro, Leadership, and Legacy

• Profile

  • Described as warm, physically imposing, less charismatic than Hugo Chávez, and fond of music and physical gestures.
  • “He’s a big man... He likes to hug. He’ll break into song...” – John Lee Anderson (17:03)

• Authoritarian Tactics

  • Anderson highlights Maduro’s revolutionary self-perception, rejection of democratic norms, and reliance on security apparatus and Cuban advisors.
    • “He is not a democrat. He sees himself as a revolutionary... it presupposes a different set of assumptions about the way you proceed once you have power.” (18:07)
    • “They regard themselves as revolutionaries... it is about not giving up power.” (18:49)

• Power Transition

  • Maduro was Chávez’s handpicked successor after a long political apprenticeship:
    • “Maduro made himself useful and very close to Chavez... Chavez discovered that he had cancer... he told the Venezuelan nation... if anything happened to him: Elijan a Nicolas Maduro como presidente...” (19:05)

6. Economic Collapse and Social Fallout

• From Oil Wealth to Ruin

  • Venezuela enjoyed a trillion-dollar oil windfall in the 2000s but became import-dependent. Plummeting prices coincided with Maduro's rise, leading to collapse.
    • “From 2003 or 4...to about 2012, 13, you had this worldwide spike in oil prices...Venezuela was almost like an extension of the United States... But the oil prices...went from let's say 120 to 40 or something. You know, it was a real drop in their income.” (20:10–20:53)
  • Corruption and failed attempts at social welfare left infrastructure and public services decimated.

• Impact on Society

  • Long lines, shortages, arbitrary detentions, harsh repression of opposition—all emblematic of Maduro's rule.
    • “There’s a consensus that he's stolen every election ever since...” (21:39)
    • “He can put children in jail, accuse them of terrorism, torture them.” – Ana Vanessa Herrero (23:35)

Venezuela’s Political Opposition

7. The Rise of María Corina Machado

• Persistent Opposition
  • The anti-Chavista opposition, frequently suppressed, finds a new rallying point in María Corina Machado.
    • “She campaigned vigorously and openly against Maduro, was declared to be illegitimate on fairly specious grounds by the country's electoral tribunal, which is another way they neutralize the opposition.” – John Lee Anderson (24:03)
  • Machado used a proxy candidate, Edmundo González, widely believed to have won the last election, though Maduro retains power.

8. U.S.–Venezuela Relations: Trump’s Escalation

• Trump’s Hardline Approach

  • From the onset, Trump sought regime change and was surrounded by hawkish Latino exiles in Florida:
    • “The first words out of Donald Trump's mouth was I want to invade Venezuela... I want to get rid of that guy Maduro...” (25:41)
  • Venezuelan regime hardened its anti-U.S. stance, playing to domestic fears of "Yankee" intervention.

• Military Options and Pitfalls

  • Anderson sketches possible U.S. actions:
    a) Limited drone/airstrikes on narcotrafficking sites
    b) Targeted strikes on leaders
    c) Hoping opposition support would ignite mass revolt
  • “I think if you ask most Venezuelans what they would like, they would like Maduro to leave and there not to be any American military intervention.” (29:46)
  • He notes regional and internal dynamics make a clean U.S.-orchestrated regime change unlikely.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Everyone has like PTSD right now. Everyone is getting ready just in case we’re going to have to suffer 2016, 17, or 18 again.”
  — Ana Vanessa Herrero (03:37)

• “They do fear something is going to happen... but everyone agrees...it's going to be really quick.”
  — Ana Vanessa Herrero (06:43)

• “No one wants this, but it’s a last resort.”
  — Ana Vanessa Herrero (07:38)

• “Raise your hand if you want to be a slave... if you want Venezuela to become a Yankee colony.”
  — John Lee Anderson (09:08, quoting Maduro)

• “He...told the Venezuelan nation...if anything happened to him: Elijan a Nicolas Maduro como presidente...”
  — John Lee Anderson (19:05)

• “I think if you ask most Venezuelans what they would like, they would like Maduro to leave and there not to be any American military intervention.”
  — John Lee Anderson (29:46)

Important Segments & Timestamps

• Opening – U.S. military moves & initial responses (00:00–03:00)
• Economic hardship & public anxiety (03:37–05:54)
• Fears around possible U.S. land intervention (05:54–08:48)
• Maduro's position and government narrative (11:21–12:45)
• Maduro’s persona and governing style (17:03–18:58)
• Oil crash and Venezuela’s decline (20:10–21:39)
• Suppression of opposition; Machado as figurehead (22:39–25:03)
• Trump's approach to Venezuela (25:13–27:26)
• Scenario analysis: regime change and its pitfalls (27:33–30:24)

Final Thoughts

This episode provides a nuanced look at Venezuela’s ongoing crisis, revealing the interplay between external threats, economic dysfunction, authoritarian resilience, and a populace exhausted by hardship and uncertainty. While Trump’s threats raise anxiety, everyday concerns remain focused on survival amid an already dire economic and political situation. Both guest correspondents stress the deadlock at the heart of Venezuela’s politics: many Venezuelans desire change but dread the violent upheaval foreign intervention could bring.

Guests:

• Ana Vanessa Herrero (Washington Post reporter, Caracas)
• John Lee Anderson (New Yorker journalist, author of several books on Latin America)

Host:

• Noel King (Vox)

Production:

• Ariana Espudu (Producer)
• Amina Elsadi (Editor)
• David Tadashore & Patrick Boyd (Engineers)
• Laura Bullard & Danielle Hewitt (Fact-checking)

For those seeking a concise, humane, and accessible window into Venezuela’s current crisis, this episode covers both lived realities and the high-level geopolitical chessboard shaping them.