Today, Explained: Handing Off a War
Vox Podcast | Release Date: November 26, 2024

Overview

In this episode of Today, Explained, Vox hosts Sean Ramaswamy and Noel King delve into the complexities surrounding the ongoing war in Ukraine, especially in the context of the recent U.S. presidential election. The discussion centers on how the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration are influencing the trajectory of the conflict, the military strategies employed, and the broader geopolitical implications.

Current Situation in Ukraine

Sean Ramaswamy opens the discussion by highlighting the intensified developments in Ukraine over recent weeks. He notes the strategic military moves and the heightened tensions on the battlefield.

• [00:00] Sean Ramaswamy: "There's been a lot of news out of Ukraine in the past few weeks."

Luke Harding, a correspondent from The Guardian, provides a ground-level perspective of the conflict's escalation:

• [02:07] Luke Harding: "It's really been heating up on several fronts, politically, militarily, internationally."

He describes scenes from regions like Kupinsk in the Kharkiv area and Sumy, where Ukraine has made significant territorial gains since August, including striking deep into Russian territory using advanced missile systems.

US Presidential Influence: Biden vs. Trump

The core of the episode examines the interplay between U.S. presidential politics and the war in Ukraine.

Josh Keating, a senior correspondent at Vox, explains the Biden administration's cautious approach:

• [05:29] Luke Harding: "The White House has allowed these strikes and Ukraine has wasted no time in whacking strategic targets."

He elaborates on the Biden administration's reluctance to escalate military involvement, aiming to avoid provoking Russia further. However, with the transition nearing, the administration is ramping up support to position Ukraine strongly ahead of potential negotiations under the Trump administration.

Notable Quotes:

• [03:31] Donald Trump: "I believe I will be able to make a deal between President Putin and President Zelensky quite quickly."

• [03:31] Sean Ramaswamy: "The war will end faster with the policy of the incoming White House."

Luke Harding discusses mixed sentiments in Kyiv regarding Trump's potential presidency:

• [04:22] Luke Harding: "There are Ukrainians who think Trump might just be good news for Ukraine, that he might somehow bring about an end to the war."

Conversely, other Ukrainians fear that Trump may capitulate to Russian demands, leading to territorial concessions and diminished security guarantees.

Historical Parallels: Presidential Transitions During War

To provide context, Josh Keating draws parallels with historical instances where U.S. presidential transitions occurred amidst active conflicts:

1. Korean War Transition (Truman to Eisenhower):

   • [19:05] Josh Keating: "Eisenhower continued the armistice talks that Truman had started, helping to end the war a few months after taking office."

2. Vietnam War Transition (Johnson to Nixon):

   • [20:29] Josh Keating: "The Nixon campaign reached out to South Vietnamese negotiators to prolong the war, resulting in continued conflict and casualties."

3. Afghanistan Withdrawal (Obama to Trump):

   • [21:32] Josh Keating: "Trump signed a deal with the Taliban, initiating the withdrawal of U.S. troops, a move criticized for its handling and consequences."

These examples illustrate the delicate balance incoming administrations must navigate when taking over foreign conflicts, often influenced by political motivations and strategic interests.

Future Implications for the Ukraine Conflict

Looking ahead, Josh Keating speculates on how the Trump administration might influence the Ukraine war:

• [23:21] Josh Keating: "The Trump team is going to push for negotiations. Will that work, though? Russia may just say no."

He suggests that Trump's approach could either escalate U.S. involvement or push towards a rapid negotiation, potentially freezing current territorial lines with some guarantees for Ukraine. However, the uncertainty remains high, especially considering Russia's historical stance on agreements and Ukraine's demand for robust security assurances.

Sam Green, a Russian analyst cited by Keating, adds:

• [23:36] Josh Keating: "Putin, up until this point, has managed to use uncertainty to his advantage. With Trump, Putin may not be able to leverage this unpredictability as effectively."

This shift could alter the dynamics of negotiations, with Trump’s administration possibly taking a more aggressive stance or offering unprecedented support to Ukraine, thereby reshaping the conflict's future.

Conclusion

The episode underscores the significant impact of U.S. presidential politics on international conflicts, particularly the war in Ukraine. As the Biden administration phases out and the Trump administration steps in, the strategies and policies adopted will likely influence the war's outcome and the broader geopolitical landscape.

Final Notable Quote:

• [26:08] Sean Ramaswamy: "We shouldn't assume that this war is going to end just because Donald Trump wants it to."

Key Takeaways

• Biden Administration's Role: Limited willingness to escalate military aid to avoid provoking Russia, leading to strained relations with Ukraine.

• Trump Administration's Potential Impact: Possible push for rapid negotiations, increased military support, or alternative strategies that could significantly alter the conflict's trajectory.

• Historical Context: Past presidential transitions during wars highlight the complexities and potential for both positive resolutions and prolonged conflicts.

• Uncertainty Ahead: The outcome of the Ukraine war remains unpredictable with upcoming political shifts in the U.S., emphasizing the need for robust international strategies and security assurances for Ukraine.

Produced by Hadi Mawagdi and Halima Shah. Edited by Jolie Myers, Fact-checked by Laura Bullard, and Mixed by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christensdottir.