How Gaza could decide the election

Summary

Today, Explained – Episode Summary: How Gaza Could Decide the Election

Podcast Information:

• Title: Today, Explained
• Host/Author: Vox
• Description: Today, Explained is Vox's daily news explainer podcast. Hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King guide listeners through the most important stories of the day.
• Network: Vox Media Podcast Network
• Episode: How Gaza could decide the election
• Release Date: November 4, 2024

---

1. Election Landscape and Polling Insights

The episode opens with Noel King discussing the intense closeness of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. With over 78 million Americans having already voted, the race remains razor-tight, particularly highlighted by a surprising poll from the Des Moines Register showing Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points in Iowa. King emphasizes the significance of Iowa's polls, referencing J. Ann Selzer's historically accurate predictions, noting that Iowa last supported a Democrat in 2012 with Barack Obama. However, the recent poll’s implications remain uncertain.

Notable Quote:

Noel King [00:01]: "A shocking little poll from the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris three points ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa."

---

2. Michigan: A Decisive Battleground State

A focal point of the discussion is Michigan, one of the seven pivotal states that could determine the election's outcome. With over 200,000 Arab Americans residing in Michigan, their voting behavior, particularly regarding the conflict in Gaza, is crucial. Khalil El Hajjal, deputy opinion editor at the Detroit Free Press and native of Dearborn, Michigan, underscores the community's deep concern over Gaza and its influence on voting patterns. He suggests that if Arab Americans prioritize voting based on Gaza, Michigan might swing back to Donald Trump, similar to its 2016 voting pattern.

Notable Quotes:

Noel King [02:08]: "Michigan Coming up..."

Khalil El Hajjal [02:13]: "This particular voting bloc could make the difference."

---

3. The Arab American Community's Concerns

El Hajjal delves into the Arab American community's heightened anxiety over the escalating conflict in Gaza and its recent spillover into Lebanon, citing an airstrike in Sidon that resulted in civilian casualties. He highlights the community's feeling of disenfranchisement and the emotional turmoil influencing their voting decisions.

Notable Quotes:

Khalil El Hajjal [02:27]: "You know, the whole immigrant parent thing... doctor is number one."

Khalil El Hajjal [03:05]: "Israeli forces have launched attacks across several parts of Lebanon... it's been a very difficult year for Arab Americans here."

---

4. Candidate Strategies: Harris vs. Trump vs. Third Parties

The episode examines how major candidates, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, as well as third-party contenders Jill Stein and Cornel West, are attempting to court the Arab American and Muslim voter base in Michigan.

• Kamala Harris: Efforts include highlighting her stance on Gaza and participating in Democratic National Committee (DNC) events with significant Arab American representation. However, El Hajjal notes missed opportunities, such as failing to secure a Palestinian speaker at the DNC, which left the community feeling marginalized.

  Notable Quotes:

  Khalil El Hajjal [05:16]: "There were a lot of negotiations about getting a Palestinian speaker on the stage that night. It didn't end up happening..."

• Donald Trump: Trump's campaign appears more proactive in engaging the Arab American community, featuring Arab American leaders and religious figures at rallies. He emphasizes promises of peace, resonating with segments of the community seeking stability.

  Notable Quotes:

  Khalil El Hajjal [08:36]: "Trump seems to be courting them... he promises peace."

• Third-Party Candidates (Jill Stein and Cornel West): Both candidates are making inroads by addressing anti-war sentiments and aligning closely with the Arab American community's concerns. Jill Stein, in particular, is highlighted for her active engagement and empathetic messaging.

  Notable Quotes:

  Jill Stein [10:20]: "We are the only anti-genocide, anti-war choice that's on the ballot."

  Cornel West [14:41]: "They make selling and buying simple."

---

5. Polling Data and Forecasts

Matt Grossman, director of Michigan State's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, discusses the volatility of the polls, which remain consistently tight around the 50% mark for both Harris and Trump. He suggests that the imminent election could reveal significant polling inaccuracies, potentially swinging entire battleground states like Michigan decisively towards one candidate or the other.

Notable Quotes:

Donald Trump [17:43]: "One of the most likely scenarios is actually that we've been wrong all along."

Matt Grossman [25:33]: "The polls tell us it's a toss-up... the age gradient on the white vote is reversed among black voters."

---

6. Voter Sentiments and Demographic Shifts

El Hajjal addresses the shifting allegiances within key demographics, notably among Arab American and Black voters. He points out that while traditionally aligned with the Democratic Party, economic and social concerns are driving segments of these communities towards Trump. Additionally, rising support for Trump among younger Black voters signals a potential ideological realignment that could impact election outcomes.

Notable Quotes:

Khalil El Hajjal [12:02]: "Arab Americans will not deserve the blame for that if that happens."

Donald Trump [22:40]: "There are long-term trends in progress... losing the cemented tie that the Democrats had to black voters."

---

7. Campaign Closing Arguments and Final Messages

As the election nears, both major candidates articulate their final appeals to voters:

• Kamala Harris: Emphasizes economic policies aimed at reducing taxes for working people and combating price gouging, positioning herself as a fighter for the average American.

  Notable Quotes:

  Noel King [19:17]: "Kamala Harris will cut taxes for working people and she'll lower everyday costs by taking on price gouging."

• Donald Trump: Focuses on economic nostalgia, lamenting Michigan's decline from a top-income state to a struggling economy. He contrasts this with his administration's promises to restore prosperity and stability.

  Notable Quotes:

  Donald Trump [24:22]: "In Michigan... things were better before, at least in economic terms."

---

8. Conclusion: The Uncertain Path Ahead

The episode wraps up by reflecting on the unpredictability of the election outcome, particularly in Michigan. With both candidates employing distinct strategies to sway undecided voters and key demographics, the final days are critical in determining the election’s direction. The role of third-party candidates adds another layer of complexity, as they provide alternatives for voters disillusioned with the major parties.

Notable Quotes:

Noel King [25:33]: "Much of the country, the polls tell us, is a toss-up. What does the uncertainty in Michigan tell us about what the entire country is weighing this year?"

---

Key Takeaways:

• Michigan's Significance: As a battleground state with substantial Arab American voters, Michigan's outcome could pivot the overall election.
• Arab American Influence: Voting decisions within this community, driven by the Gaza conflict and community disenfranchisement, are pivotal.
• Candidate Engagement: Harris and Trump employ differing approaches to court Arab American voters, with third-party candidates gaining traction by addressing specific community concerns.
• Polling Uncertainty: Tight and potentially inaccurate polls heighten the unpredictability of the election outcome.
• Demographic Shifts: Emerging trends among Arab American and Black voters indicate potential shifts in traditional party loyalties, impacting overall electoral dynamics.

---

Attributions:

• Host: Noel King
• Guest: Khalil El Hajjal, Deputy Opinion Editor at the Detroit Free Press
• Expert Commentary: Matt Grossman, Director of Michigan State's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research
• Candidates: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Jill Stein, Cornel West

---

This comprehensive summary encapsulates the episode's exploration of how international conflicts and demographic dynamics within key states like Michigan are influencing the tightly contested 2024 U.S. presidential election.

Transcript

[Noel King]

It's today explained more than 78 million Americans have already voted in the 2024 election. Polling still shows a very, very close race this weekend. A shocking little poll from the Des Moines Register showed Kamala Harris three points ahead of Donald Trump in Iowa. And the prototypical example of a gold standard poll is the Iowa poll done by J. Ann Selzer in Iowa. Her polls are known for their uncanny predictive accuracy. Iowa last broke for the Democrat Barack Obama in 2012. It was expected to go to Trump this year. So what does this new poll mean? Well, we don't know. The real polling was the friends we made along the way. We do know that seven states will decide this election. One of them is Michigan. More than 200,000 Arab Americans live there and many of them say they are voting on Gaza. If they do, the state that Joe Biden won in 2020 may go as it did in 2016 for Donald Trump. Michigan Coming up, Amgen, a leading biotechnology company, needed a global financial company to facilitate funding and acquisition to broaden Amgen's therapeutic reach, expand its pipeline and accelerate bringing new and innovative medicines to patients in need globally. They found that partner in Citi, whose seamlessly connected banking markets and services businesses can advise, finance and close deals around the world. Learn [e-mail] clientstories.

[Matt Grossman]

Support for this show comes from Polestar. Polestar is an electric performance car brand that is focused on innovation for both cutting edge technology and design and their all electric SUV. Polestar 3 is for those unwilling to compromise, for those who believe they shouldn't have to choose between the spacious comfort of an SUV and the agile handling of a sports car. For those who need an intuitive infotainment system and a dashboard designed with minimalism in mind. Polestar 3 is for drivers who won't settle for anything less. Book a Test drive for [e-mail].

[Noel King]

Today.

[Matt Grossman]

Explained Battleground States.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Michigan I chose journalism after kind of recognizing that there weren't enough Arab Americans represented in the media, which was a tough thing for my parents.

[Noel King]

What did they want?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

You know, the whole immigrant parent thing. You know, they want you to be a doctor, an engineer, maybe lawyer. But yeah, doctor is number one. And in the Arab community, they all want you to be a doctor. So.

[Noel King]

Khalil El Hajel is deputy opinion editor at the Detroit Free Press. He's also a native of Dearborn, Michigan, which last year became the first Arab majority city in the United States.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

This particular voting bloc could make the difference. There's all sorts of issues, folks care about. But definitely the number one issue is Gaza, the war in Gaza, and now Lebanon. Israeli forces have launched attacks across several parts of Lebanon.

[Jill Stein]

On Sunday, an airstrike hit a residential area in the coastal city of Sidon.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Trapping civilians under rubble. We have a lot of Lebanese Americans in particular here in Michigan, Palestinian folks, too. But with the expansion of the war to Lebanon, the level of pain and concern and agony over who to vote for has just really grown exponentially in recent weeks. It's been a very difficult year for Arab Americans here. And as we get closer to the election, you can just kind of feel the tension and the difficulty deciding who to vote for, really.

[Noel King]

All right, so if we look at polling in Michigan, like many other swing states, it is very, very, very tight. There is this significant Arab American community in Michigan. How important is this voting bloc when it comes to winning the state?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

It seems to be pivotal for the Harris campaign, I think. I'm not sure they see it that I would imagine. We're talking about 100,000 votes here in Michigan in the last couple presidential elections. It was decided by a matter of 150,000 votes, and I think as close as 10,000.

[Noel King]

What do the polling numbers show on Trump versus Harris?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Nationwide, it's a split. There was a poll from the Arab American Institute of Arab Americans around the country that showed almost a 50, 50 split nationwide. And that was a difference from previous polls that showed about 60, 40 in favor of Democrats. There certainly are Americans who will vote for Donald Trump, and there are those who will come around on Kamala Harris. But there are a lot of folks who feel that their only choices are either Jill Stein or Cornel west, who visited Michigan a lot and who've made real overtures to Arab American communities or do not vote at all. I had to convince my parents to vote in this election, and they did. But. And it required some arm twisting. They felt very sort of disenfranchised.

[Noel King]

We're gonna get to Jill Stein and Cornel west in a bit. But let's talk about the two big campaigns and the attempts, if any, that they're making. What is the Harris campaign doing to try to get the Arab American and Muslim vote?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Earlier in the campaign, there did seem to be some efforts to win folks over. There was a large Arab American Michigan contingent at the dnc.

[Matt Grossman]

We're actually not asking her to adopt the full that, like every single one.

[Noel King]

Of my cousins would want her to.

[Jill Stein]

Adopt, which is a full arms embargo.

[Matt Grossman]

But we need her to move in our direction.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

And there were A lot of negotiations about getting a Palestinian speaker on the stage that night. It didn't end up happening, which was a real disappointment.

[Jill Stein]

Tell the vice President that I'm sitting.

[Matt Grossman]

Outside, I'm not going anywhere.

[Noel King]

I hope she changes her mind.

[Matt Grossman]

Thank you. Okay, I'm going to be sitting down right here.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

I think that was a really pivotal moment in for a lot of folks who really felt insulted by that. There certainly have been times where Harris has answered questions on Gaza in ways that did distinguish her from President Biden in her DNC speech. You know, she said, and the Palestinian.

[Noel King]

People can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self determination.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

That sounded different from what we had been hearing for years in presidential politics. It felt like a breakthrough. At the same time, that's a pretty low bar. I mean, it's really just a recognition that Palestinians are human beings who deserve equal rights. And I think that was appreciated. But I'm not sure it was enough to convince folks that the approach toward this very bloody war in Gaza would change in any way. You know, and that coupled with the, you know, not getting a Palestinian speaker on the stage, I think that left a lot of folks dejected.

[Noel King]

Many progressives have questioned Kamala Harris decision to campaign side by side with Liz Cheney. It doesn't matter what party you're in. We all know this is a good and an honorable and a great nation and we have to have leaders. You might say I'm not going to agree on every issue, but we have to have leaders who take that seriously. How is that going over in Arab American communities there?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Yeah. Not well, huh? Not well. Yeah. I mean, as soon as the name Dick Cheney came up as somebody who was being courted by the Harris campaign, it was pretty painful. You know, folks associate that guy with the invasion of Iraq and, you know, all sorts of vile things from that period of time in the W. Bush era. It just seems like the Harris campaign is pursuing maybe more lower hanging fruit and folks who could maybe be more easily convinced. And it feels like the Arab American voting bloc seems to be maybe more of a liability for the Harris campaign, whereas the Trump campaign is, you know, parading any Arab Americans they can get onto their stages. And I'm going to ask all of, if I could, all of my friends to come up from the Arab and Muslim part of Michigan and I'd like to give them a big hand because they're going to vote for us and help us win.

[Noel King]

Yeah, how's that working? I mean, because for the Trump campaign there is clearly a real opportunity Here. What is Donald Trump doing? How is his campaign showing up in Michigan?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

They're showing up a lot. Both campaigns are showing up in Michigan. But when it comes to the Arab community and the Muslim community, Trump seems to be courting them. He's had a number of religious leaders and a couple of local mayors, Arab American mayors, who have showed up on stage and expressed support for him. As the president said, we just had.

[Matt Grossman]

A positive meeting with President Trump. We as Muslims stand with President Trump.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Because he promises peace. He promises peace, not war. For whatever reason, he's got a hold of some folks in this community. I don't think it's a huge segment of the community, but he has won over some prominent leaders and he's bringing them on stage as often as he can, which is a distinction from the Harris campaign, which appears to be more interested in winning over people who maybe were Republicans in the past and are dissatisfied now. It may be a good strategy, I don't know, but it hurts.

[Noel King]

All right, so if it's not Trump, if it's not Harris, then for people who still want to vote, it's going to be someone you mentioned, Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate. One poll of American Muslims from this month has her at 42% to Kamala Harris, 41%. Our producer, Myles Bryan, spoke to her about her pitch, and here's what she told him. Muslim Americans in particular are very resonant with our message. And basically, we are the only anti genocide, anti war choice that's on the ballot. Specifically, you know, we are looking at the genocide and the fact that Americans.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Do not want this genocide.

[Noel King]

Talk to me about why you think Jill Stein's message is resonating.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

She's been visiting Michigan repeatedly attending Arab American functions.

[Noel King]

She is someone who has been a.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Voice of truth in a sea of.

[Matt Grossman]

Lies in our political system.

[Jill Stein]

And so here in Dearborn, in the.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Heart and the heartbeat of the Arab American community, we welcome this evening for.

[Jill Stein]

US presidential candidate Dr. Jill Sa, telling.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Them exactly what they want to hear when it comes to war. And, you know, and I think she even describes as what's been happening in Gaza as genocide.

[Noel King]

The American people are in a very active state of uprising right now against this permanent war economy and this genocide.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

She shows up at these rallies wearing a keffiyeh, you know, a traditional Palestinian scarf around her shoulders. She's really embraced the Arab community and literally, you know, you see her hugging folks out at these rallies. I think the same is true of Cornel West.

[Cornel West]

And so Kamala Harris and the others.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Would have to acknowledge their particular policy.

[Donald Trump]

Makes them war criminals.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

For some folks, that's the tough decision, whether it's Jill Stein or Cornel West. But then, you know, there's the simple reality that neither of those two will win. And so for a lot of folks, it remains an agonizing disus decision.

[Noel King]

Is there any conversation in the Arab American community that you're aware of if our votes go to Trump and Trump wins, the people who've historically sided with us, Democrats, progressives, are going to blame us?

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Yeah, I think so. I think about that a lot. You know, I've been thinking a lot about how to sort of stave that off and sort of prevent blame. And I don't think, I don't think Arab Americans will deserve the blame for that if that happens. But honestly, I'm not sure that many Arab Americans are terribly concerned about it because they don't have a political home right now, you know. So whatever backlash comes, it's not going to be worse than the pain of the last year of watching your friends and in many cases your family members killed over and over again and seeing the war expand, even as our leaders tell us they're working around the clock for a ceasefire. The level of pain of the last year has been, well, it's been worse than any of the Trump years, believe it or not. It's been excruciating at a level that I'm not sure anyone's really thinking about our future political position. They don't have a political home now. They may not in the future, you know, unless there's some sort of resolution to this conflict and some hope for peace.

[Noel King]

That was Khalil El Hadjal of the Detroit Free Press. Coming up, what close polls tell us about Michigan.

[Matt Grossman]

Support for the show comes from Polestar. Innovation is at the heart of every Polestar car and their SUV. Polestar 3 is no different from the intuitive infotainment system to its head turning design. Polestar 3 is for drivers unwilling to compromise. That means merging a spacious, comfortable interior with the torque and handling of a sports car. Now you can go from 0 to 60 in as little as 4.8 seconds and get an EPA estimated range of up to 315 miles per charge charge. Polestar 3 even allows the driver to optimize the powertrain between performance and range mode, depending on your drive's needs. Experience an uncluttered dashboard showing you everything you want to know and nothing you don't. The innovation doesn't stop there because you can just have Google turn on your favorite podcast and be immersed in 3D sound by Bowers and Wilkins. Polestar has put in the time designing and refining Polestar 3, and that means the time you spend in it will be the best time of your day. Book a Test [e-mail].

[Cornel West]

Think about those businesses that grew their sales beyond their forecasts. Companies like Momofuku or feastables by MrBeast, or even a legacy business like Mattel. When you think about them, sure, you think about a product with demand, a focused brand and influence driven marketing. But part of their secret is actually the business behind the scenes, as in the business that makes selling and buying simple. And for millions of companies, that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. With their Shop Pay feature, they can boost conversions up to 50%, meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going. So if you're into growing your business, you want a commerce platform that's ready to sell wherever your customers are scrolling or scrolling, whether that's on the web, in your store and everywhere in between. Because businesses that sell more sell on Shopify, sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com VoxBusiness all lowercase go to shopify.com VoxBusiness to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com VoxBusiness.

[Jill Stein]

Support for this podcast comes from Aura Finding the perfect gift can feel impossible this time of year, especially when you're shopping for the people you love the most. It should be something they'll actually use, but practicality alone isn't going to cut it. You want something a little more meaningful than a great can opener or a cozy pair of socks. That's where Aura comes in. Wirecutter named Aura the number one digital picture frame, and it's not hard to see why. Aura's frames make it incredibly easy to share unlimited photos and videos directly from your phone to the frame. And when you give an Aura frame as a gift, you can personalize and preload it with a thoughtful message and photos using the Aura app, making it an ideal present for long distance loved ones. For a limited time, you can visit auraframes.com and get $45 off Aura's best selling carver Matte frames by using promo code Vox at checkout. That's auraframes.com promo code VOX this exclusive Black Friday Cyber Monday deal is their best of the year, so don't miss out. Terms and conditions apply.

[Noel King]

All right, Matt Grossman, you are the director of Michigan State's Institute for Public policy and social research and a political science professor. We never like to ask people to predict too much, but we are one day out from the election, and we've heard that the polls are 50, 50, 50, 50, 50,. 50, or like 46, 47. What is a likely scenario that you can envision here when you look at polling like this?

[Donald Trump]

Because the seven swing states are so close, one of the most likely scenarios is actually that we've been wrong all along. The polls are off in some systematic fashion across the states, and that means that either Harris or Trump wins all seven or close to all seven of the swing states. I think that's probably actually a pretty likely scenario since we're usually off. On average, we're talking about polls that reach 1 to 2 out of 100 people. So if you think about going around the room talking to random people and, and seeing the first one out of 100 that's willing to talk to you about politics for 30 minutes, they're probably not going to be very representative. So it's kind of amazing that we get as close as we get. But if you told me it's the morning after the election and Michigan has made the difference, I would say the most likely scenario there is that Democratic weakness among Arab American voters and black voters showed up and that made a difference in Michigan more than in other places.

[Noel King]

And the candidates are in the state right up until the end. What is Kamala Harris closing argument?

[Donald Trump]

Well, there is a bit of dissent, I guess, within the Harris campaign and the broader Democratic apparatus. The Democratic super pac, which has tested, you know, hundreds of messages, has repeatedly come back and said that actually the most effective messages at the end are about Harris herself and about Harris economic policy proposals.

[Noel King]

Kamala Harris will cut taxes for working people and she'll lower everyday costs by taking on price gouging. Trump fights for billionaires like him. Kamala fights for us.

[Donald Trump]

But the campaign has remained somewhat focused while including that message on threats to democracy and the threat of Donald Trump.

[Noel King]

And let's be clear, we are all here because we are fighting for a democracy and for the right of people to be heard and seen. We're not about the enemy within, we know.

[Donald Trump]

So it'll be interesting to see which one they emphasize more at the end. This is the most money that has been spent in the presidential race, so they really do have the money to spend it all. But the message is a little bit different in the ads than it is from the candidate herself.

[Noel King]

In the first half of the show, we talked to Khalil Al Hajjal. He's an opinion editor at the Free Press, and he told us that the Arab American community in and around Detroit is very angry at the Democratic Party. How much do you think this will hurt Kamala Harris?

[Donald Trump]

It is a small part of the voting population as a whole, but it is one that could swing in a strong direction this year. I think one thing that's misunderstood is that we talked to, say, the leaders of the uncommitted vote movement in the presidential primary, and we have this perception that Arab American voters are kind of liberals overall, but concerned about this one issue and willing to sit it out or vote for a third party candidate. But that's really not representative of the Arab American population as a whole. They have actually been more of a swing vote than people might think. For example, in the 2022 midterm election, the Dearborn area actually moved toward the Republicans while the rest of the state was moving toward the Democrats. But it had, it was pre Gaza. It had to do with controversy over LGBT books in schools and over kind of general post pandemic school policy.

[Jill Stein]

Tense moments and heated exchanges at Dearborn School Board meeting Thursday night as parents, residents and community stakeholders sounded off on LGBTQ books in the District's library system.

[Donald Trump]

So it's a constituency that has a lot of people who are socially conservative. It also has a lot of small business owners and people who are economically conservative. And yet since 911 have viewed the Democratic Party as their home, as the party that supports them, and the Republican Party as the party that opposes them. So it'll be interesting to see if not only do you get lower support for the Democrat this time, but actually increase Trump support, even though it might seem odd given that Trump's position on Israel is at least as pro Netanyahu, if not more than the Biden administration and Harris.

[Noel King]

The other demographic that you mentioned that Kamala Harris has had some trouble with is black voters. We've covered this all year long. Black men in particular are interested in Donald Trump in greater numbers than before. What specifically is Kamala Harris failing to do with this demographic? Or maybe a better way of putting it is if in the days after the election we learn that black men did turn toward Donald Trump, is that a, is that something that the Trump campaign did right or that the Harris campaign did wrong?

[Donald Trump]

Maybe neither. These are long term trends in progress. The age gradient on the white vote is that the older you are, the more likely you are to be conservative and Republican voter, but it's actually reversed among black voters. The younger you are, the more likely you are to be a Republican, because it's sort of the progression of losing the cemented tie that the Democrats had to black voters from the civil rights movement and the role of the Republican Party in opposing some of the gains that African Americans have seen within the Democratic Party. So in some ways, it is kind of part of an ideological realignment or an educational realignment that may be happening kind of regardless of the candidates.

[Noel King]

Four years ago, Donald Trump only got about 8% of the black vote.

[Matt Grossman]

The polls show that he is making.

[Noel King]

Inroads among black male voters. The former president, speaking at a black church in Detroit, continued his attacks on immigrants, insisting that the black community is being hurt by those who are entering the country illegally. All right, let's talk about Donald Trump. What is his closing argument to the great state of Michigan?

[Donald Trump]

Well, again, you have a little bit of a differentiation between what the campaign is running on the airwaves, which I take to be the poll tested, research supported message, which is clearly just compare the Biden administration to the Trump administration.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Their Biden nomics led to the Highest inflation in 40 years, highest gas prices ever, skyrocketing interest rates on affordable housing. Yet Kamala Harris is clueless.

[Noel King]

We are very proud of Bidenomics.

[Donald Trump]

And in Michigan, you know, there's a particular gain to talking about nostalgic politics, to talking about the way things used to be, because we're a state that used to be, you know, in the top 15 or 20 in income in the US and are now in the bottom 10 or 15 in income in the US so it's a place that really did think that things were better before, at least in economic terms. And so the Trump's message, which is the same nationally, but has a chance to land with Michigan now one, you know, again, it's hard to get the candidate on the same message, especially with Trump.

[Khalil El Hajjal]

Trump using violent rhetoric as he called Cheney a war hawk. Let's put her with a rifle, standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Okay, let's see feels about it.

[Donald Trump]

What he's gonna talk about in his last few speeches, we don't know. He's ending in Grand Rapids as he did in the previous two campaigns. So clearly some symbolic importance to Michigan as well.

[Noel King]

All right, so Michigan is a toss up. Much of the country, the polls tell us, is a toss up. What does the uncertainty in Michigan tell us about what the entire country is weighing this year?

[Donald Trump]

Well, first, it's sort of hard to say whether it's uncertain because of there's a whole bunch of people who haven't made up their mind or if it's just uncertain because we're not great at polling, I do want to hold out that second possibility. We could have the election and it could be six points more to the Harris side or six points more to the Trump side, which would look in our times like a landslide and that would just be an average polling error. And it probably is not the case that a whole bunch of people just if that happens, that a whole bunch of people just made up their mind at the end, it is instead that we were just wrong all along. But I do think it's important to say it will have been 40 years since a presidential candidate won by 10 points or more in 1984. So we just have not had landslide elections. We have been fighting at the middle for a shrinking number of voters who haven't made up their mind between the two sides. And so not any easy way out of this two sides system.

[Noel King]

That was Matt Grossman of Michigan State. Myles Bryan produced today's episode and Matthew Collette edited Laura Bullard fact checked and Rob Byers and Andrea Christian's daughter engineered. I'm Noel King. It's.

[Matt Grossman]

Sample.

[Jill Stein]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions, and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more. Stripe Make Progress.