Today, Explained — "How Iran is winning"

Date: March 31, 2026
Hosts: Noel King, Sean Rameswaram
Guests: Jerry Doyle (Bloomberg News), Phil Stewart (Reuters)

Episode Overview

This episode of Today, Explained examines how Iran has managed to gain the upper hand in the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, especially through its control of the vital Strait of Hormuz. Through expert analysis by Jerry Doyle (Bloomberg's global defense editor) and Phil Stewart (Reuters' chief national security correspondent), the podcast explores the mechanics, legality, and implications of Iran's closure of the Strait, the ripple effects on global oil markets, possible U.S. responses, and the uncertain future of the crisis.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

• What is the Strait of Hormuz?
  • A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, critical for global oil exports.
  • Used by all major Persian Gulf oil producers (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE) to export oil.

"The Strait of Hormuz is this little dog leg of water between Iran and Oman... all of the Persian Gulf countries that produce oil... use that waterway to get their oil out."
— Jerry Doyle (02:13)

• Current Situation:
  • Iran is letting its own oil out, but blocking others.
  • Hundreds of oil tankers are idle; global supply choked (03:08).

2. How Iran Closed the Strait

• Methods:
  • Leveraging geographic proximity (“by virtue of being where it is”).
  • Threat of sea mines and anti-ship missiles; actual deployment of mines is rumored but not confirmed.

"As long as there's a threat, as long as there's a war going on... they have to act as though there are mines there."
— Jerry Doyle (04:08)

• Any ship passing without permission risks being attacked.

• Sea mines: placed on the seabed (activated by sound or proximity), floating mines, or moored mines. All types increase risk for shipping (05:03).

• Impact on Allies:

  • Saudi Arabia uses a pipeline to bypass the Strait, but it can't compensate for the overall loss (03:43).
  • 20% of global oil supply disrupted.

3. Legality and Diplomatic Fallout

• Is it legal for Iran to block the strait?
  • Under maritime law, the Strait should remain open for commercial traffic (“freedom of navigation”).
  • Iran charging “up to $2 million” per ship to transit (06:28).
  • Technically illegal, but the reality of war supersedes regulation.

4. Economic and Global Consequences

• Iran’s Position:
  • Despite the blockade, Iran's oil is still reaching global markets (mainly China), now at higher prices.
  • Iran is making $139 million/day in March (up $20M from February).

"For Iran, it means that they're actually making more money per day than they were before the war because oil prices have gone up significantly."
— Jerry Doyle (07:23)

• Rest of the World:
  • Severe oil shortfalls, surging prices on everything tied to petroleum—from fertilizer to consumer goods.
  • Fertilizer prices have spiked, threatening food production costs (08:58).
  • The longer the strait remains closed, the more dramatic the global economic impact becomes.

5. Aftermath & Recovery: If the Strait Opens

• Challenges:
  • Extensive damage from conflict to oil and gas infrastructure.
  • Mines must be cleared, infrastructure rebuilt.
  • Return to “normal” would be slow, even after a ceasefire (10:19).

6. Regional Escalation: Bab el Mandab and the Houthis

• Additional Choke Points:
  • Bab el Mandab, at Saudi Arabia’s other side, could be threatened if Houthis escalate attacks.
  • This could impact shipments to the Suez Canal and further disrupt oil flows (11:03).
  • Risk of compounded economic shocks.

7. U.S. Options: Force or Diplomacy?

• Military Solutions:
  • Full military campaign to eliminate Iran's ability to close the strait.
  • Negotiated settlement—perceived as the only two real options (12:16).
• Trump’s Statements:
  • Using Truth Social to threaten attacks on Kharg Island (Iran’s oil export hub) and energy infrastructure if the strait remains closed.

"If the Hermu Strait is not immediately... open for business, we will conclude our lovely... stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island."
— Donald Trump, reading from Truth Social (16:49)

• Potential for Deploying U.S. Troops:
  • Deploying to Kharg Island would likely trigger a strong Iranian response and escalate the conflict (17:43).
  • Both maximal escalation (obliterate infrastructure) and negotiation are on the table.

"It would be a tremendous undertaking... it's within rocket range and within range of drones and all kinds of other projectiles..."
— Phil Stewart (17:43)

• Risks of Mission Creep:
  • Planners are aware, but troop numbers remain limited for now.
  • Recent deployments: “a couple thousand paratroopers” moved to the region, possibly for short-term occupation or pressure tactics (22:23).

8. The Washington Debate: Escalation vs. Resistance

• Arguments in Capital:
  • Senator Lindsey Graham and others advocate for seizing Kharg Island to hasten regime collapse.
  • Some believe Iran only reacts to pressure (citing past responses to strikes, e.g. on Qasem Soleimani).
  • Others argue Iran will double down and rally around anti-U.S. sentiment (24:00).

"There's another school of thought that Iran absolutely will not buckle when under pressure... in the event of attack, people are going to rally around that identity as sort of the resistance force."
— Phil Stewart (24:45)

9. War’s Human Cost & Risks of Wider Involvement

• American Casualties:
  • U.S. military reporting deaths: “Three U.S. military members are dead... six U.S. service members have been killed during Operation Epic Fury.” (26:17)
  • Iranian attacks on U.S. bases and Gulf desalination plants.
• What Might Prompt Major U.S. Deployment?
  • A large-scale attack on U.S. personnel or allies could force America’s hand.
  • Risk that intensified conflict becomes increasingly hard to control (25:44).

"Once you start putting more and more skin in the game... if there were a large strike that killed a large number of U.S. troops... you could really see this becoming an intensified war much more than it is right now."
— Phil Stewart (25:44)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Mine Warfare:

  "Mines are a scary thing to be dealing with. As a mariner, as a ship's captain, it's something we don't want to fool around with."
  — Phil Stewart (05:56)

• On Escalation:

  "Full maximalist escalation where the US will go after the most important energy infrastructure that Iran has. And it’s a nation that relies on energy for its entire economy."
  — Phil Stewart (20:11)

• On American Strategy Options:

  "If you want to end the war, you have to either do it through military force ... or you negotiate a settlement."
  — Jerry Doyle (12:16)

Segment Timestamps

• 02:13 — Jerry Doyle explains the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
• 04:08 — Methods used by Iran to close the strait
• 06:28 — Discussing the legality and consequences of closing the strait
• 07:23 — Economical impacts: Iran profits, the world's loss
• 10:19 — What it would take to reopen the oil trade
• 11:03 — Additional threats from the Bab el Mandab strait & the Houthis
• 12:16 — U.S. options: military vs. diplomatic resolution
• 16:49 — President Trump's threats against Kharg Island
• 17:43 — Risks of deploying U.S. troops to Kharg
• 22:23 — American military deployments and the risk of mission creep
• 24:45 — Two competing schools of thought in Washington on Iranian resilience
• 26:17 — Reporting on U.S. casualties and attacks in the Gulf
• 27:17 — Conclusion

Summary

This episode offers an in-depth analysis of how Iran’s physical and strategic domination of Middle Eastern oil shipping routes—especially the Strait of Hormuz—and its ability to keep exporting oil has put global economies at risk while strengthening its own position. Unilateral closure of this choke point defies international law, but the reality of military risk keeps the route shut for rivals. U.S. responses remain open-ended, torn between escalation and diplomacy, with the ever-present threat of mission creep if military action is taken. The episode closes on the ominous possibility that a spark—such as a deadly attack on U.S. troops—could rapidly escalate the war to new and uncontrollable heights.

For listeners seeking deep context on why oil prices are surging, where the risks of greater war lie, and how U.S. and Iranian strategies are evolving, this episode is essential.