How Iran is winning

Summary

Today, Explained — "How Iran is winning"

Date: March 31, 2026
Hosts: Noel King, Sean Rameswaram
Guests: Jerry Doyle (Bloomberg News), Phil Stewart (Reuters)

---

Episode Overview

This episode of Today, Explained examines how Iran has managed to gain the upper hand in the ongoing conflict in the Persian Gulf, especially through its control of the vital Strait of Hormuz. Through expert analysis by Jerry Doyle (Bloomberg's global defense editor) and Phil Stewart (Reuters' chief national security correspondent), the podcast explores the mechanics, legality, and implications of Iran's closure of the Strait, the ripple effects on global oil markets, possible U.S. responses, and the uncertain future of the crisis.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Significance of the Strait of Hormuz

• What is the Strait of Hormuz?
  • A narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, critical for global oil exports.
  • Used by all major Persian Gulf oil producers (Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE) to export oil.

"The Strait of Hormuz is this little dog leg of water between Iran and Oman... all of the Persian Gulf countries that produce oil... use that waterway to get their oil out."
— Jerry Doyle (02:13)

• Current Situation:
  • Iran is letting its own oil out, but blocking others.
  • Hundreds of oil tankers are idle; global supply choked (03:08).

2. How Iran Closed the Strait

• Methods:
  • Leveraging geographic proximity (“by virtue of being where it is”).
  • Threat of sea mines and anti-ship missiles; actual deployment of mines is rumored but not confirmed.

"As long as there's a threat, as long as there's a war going on... they have to act as though there are mines there."
— Jerry Doyle (04:08)

• Any ship passing without permission risks being attacked.

• Sea mines: placed on the seabed (activated by sound or proximity), floating mines, or moored mines. All types increase risk for shipping (05:03).

• Impact on Allies:

  • Saudi Arabia uses a pipeline to bypass the Strait, but it can't compensate for the overall loss (03:43).
  • 20% of global oil supply disrupted.

3. Legality and Diplomatic Fallout

• Is it legal for Iran to block the strait?
  • Under maritime law, the Strait should remain open for commercial traffic (“freedom of navigation”).
  • Iran charging “up to $2 million” per ship to transit (06:28).
  • Technically illegal, but the reality of war supersedes regulation.

4. Economic and Global Consequences

• Iran’s Position:
  • Despite the blockade, Iran's oil is still reaching global markets (mainly China), now at higher prices.
  • Iran is making $139 million/day in March (up $20M from February).

"For Iran, it means that they're actually making more money per day than they were before the war because oil prices have gone up significantly."
— Jerry Doyle (07:23)

• Rest of the World:
  • Severe oil shortfalls, surging prices on everything tied to petroleum—from fertilizer to consumer goods.
  • Fertilizer prices have spiked, threatening food production costs (08:58).
  • The longer the strait remains closed, the more dramatic the global economic impact becomes.

5. Aftermath & Recovery: If the Strait Opens

• Challenges:
  • Extensive damage from conflict to oil and gas infrastructure.
  • Mines must be cleared, infrastructure rebuilt.
  • Return to “normal” would be slow, even after a ceasefire (10:19).

6. Regional Escalation: Bab el Mandab and the Houthis

• Additional Choke Points:
  • Bab el Mandab, at Saudi Arabia’s other side, could be threatened if Houthis escalate attacks.
  • This could impact shipments to the Suez Canal and further disrupt oil flows (11:03).
  • Risk of compounded economic shocks.

---

7. U.S. Options: Force or Diplomacy?

• Military Solutions:
  • Full military campaign to eliminate Iran's ability to close the strait.
  • Negotiated settlement—perceived as the only two real options (12:16).
• Trump’s Statements:
  • Using Truth Social to threaten attacks on Kharg Island (Iran’s oil export hub) and energy infrastructure if the strait remains closed.

"If the Hermu Strait is not immediately... open for business, we will conclude our lovely... stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island."
— Donald Trump, reading from Truth Social (16:49)

• Potential for Deploying U.S. Troops:
  • Deploying to Kharg Island would likely trigger a strong Iranian response and escalate the conflict (17:43).
  • Both maximal escalation (obliterate infrastructure) and negotiation are on the table.

"It would be a tremendous undertaking... it's within rocket range and within range of drones and all kinds of other projectiles..."
— Phil Stewart (17:43)

• Risks of Mission Creep:
  • Planners are aware, but troop numbers remain limited for now.
  • Recent deployments: “a couple thousand paratroopers” moved to the region, possibly for short-term occupation or pressure tactics (22:23).

---

8. The Washington Debate: Escalation vs. Resistance

• Arguments in Capital:
  • Senator Lindsey Graham and others advocate for seizing Kharg Island to hasten regime collapse.
  • Some believe Iran only reacts to pressure (citing past responses to strikes, e.g. on Qasem Soleimani).
  • Others argue Iran will double down and rally around anti-U.S. sentiment (24:00).

"There's another school of thought that Iran absolutely will not buckle when under pressure... in the event of attack, people are going to rally around that identity as sort of the resistance force."
— Phil Stewart (24:45)

---

9. War’s Human Cost & Risks of Wider Involvement

• American Casualties:
  • U.S. military reporting deaths: “Three U.S. military members are dead... six U.S. service members have been killed during Operation Epic Fury.” (26:17)
  • Iranian attacks on U.S. bases and Gulf desalination plants.
• What Might Prompt Major U.S. Deployment?
  • A large-scale attack on U.S. personnel or allies could force America’s hand.
  • Risk that intensified conflict becomes increasingly hard to control (25:44).

"Once you start putting more and more skin in the game... if there were a large strike that killed a large number of U.S. troops... you could really see this becoming an intensified war much more than it is right now."
— Phil Stewart (25:44)

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Iranian Mine Warfare:

  "Mines are a scary thing to be dealing with. As a mariner, as a ship's captain, it's something we don't want to fool around with."
  — Phil Stewart (05:56)

• On Escalation:

  "Full maximalist escalation where the US will go after the most important energy infrastructure that Iran has. And it’s a nation that relies on energy for its entire economy."
  — Phil Stewart (20:11)

• On American Strategy Options:

  "If you want to end the war, you have to either do it through military force ... or you negotiate a settlement."
  — Jerry Doyle (12:16)

---

Segment Timestamps

• 02:13 — Jerry Doyle explains the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz
• 04:08 — Methods used by Iran to close the strait
• 06:28 — Discussing the legality and consequences of closing the strait
• 07:23 — Economical impacts: Iran profits, the world's loss
• 10:19 — What it would take to reopen the oil trade
• 11:03 — Additional threats from the Bab el Mandab strait & the Houthis
• 12:16 — U.S. options: military vs. diplomatic resolution
• 16:49 — President Trump's threats against Kharg Island
• 17:43 — Risks of deploying U.S. troops to Kharg
• 22:23 — American military deployments and the risk of mission creep
• 24:45 — Two competing schools of thought in Washington on Iranian resilience
• 26:17 — Reporting on U.S. casualties and attacks in the Gulf
• 27:17 — Conclusion

---

Summary

This episode offers an in-depth analysis of how Iran’s physical and strategic domination of Middle Eastern oil shipping routes—especially the Strait of Hormuz—and its ability to keep exporting oil has put global economies at risk while strengthening its own position. Unilateral closure of this choke point defies international law, but the reality of military risk keeps the route shut for rivals. U.S. responses remain open-ended, torn between escalation and diplomacy, with the ever-present threat of mission creep if military action is taken. The episode closes on the ominous possibility that a spark—such as a deadly attack on U.S. troops—could rapidly escalate the war to new and uncontrollable heights.

---

For listeners seeking deep context on why oil prices are surging, where the risks of greater war lie, and how U.S. and Iranian strategies are evolving, this episode is essential.

Transcript

[Noel King]

It only Tuesday and the average price of a gallon of gas in these United states just topped $4. So President Trump is proposing a new strategy to get oil from Iran's Strait of Hormuz for quote, all of those countries that can't get jet fuel.

[Donald Trump]

Truth Social Build up some delayed courage. Go to the straight and just take it. You'll have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The USA won't be there to help you anym just like you weren't there for us. Iran has been essentially decimated. The hard part is done.

[Jerry Doyle]

Go get your own oil.

[Noel King]

But then crude oil prices rose again after an Iranian drone set a Kuwaiti oil tanker on fire. So yeah, Coming up on Today explained how and where and why Iran is winning this war.

[Timberland Advertiser]

It's not just something you made. It's the privilege that you get to work with your hands. It's building something that serves a purpose, proof that you have the grit to keep going. At Timberland, we understand you take your craft seriously and we do too. Which is why our products are built to the highest quality. We put in the work so you can perfect yours with purpose, in every detail and crafted with intention. Timberland built on craft. Visit timberland.com to shop.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Megan Rapinoe here this week on A Touch more, we've got two insiders to help us unpack the WNBA's new CBA three time champion and WNBPA Vice President Alicia Clark, aka AC and ESPN basketball analyst Andrea Carter. We're also going to take a look at our NCAA brackets and check out what's next in March Madness. Check out the latest episode of A Touch More wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

[Noel King]

This is TODAY explained Jerry Doyle. He's the global defense editor at Bloomberg News. Jerry, what's the Strait of Hormuz?

[Jerry Doyle]

The Strait of Hormuz is this little dog leg of water between Iran and Oman. Basically a little bit of the uae. And it's impossible. Important because all of the Persian Gulf countries that produce oil, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, all use that waterway to get their oil out. As long as there are no stress factors on the waterway, things such as war or mines, that's just the easiest and cheapest way to do it. The biggest action in the Strait of Hormuz at the moment is that Iran is able to get its oil out through the strait. Meanwhile, US Ships and any oil that's been sort of generated in the other Gulf countries is not getting up a

[Noel King]

global energy supply choked off where 20% of the world's oil once flowed. Hundreds of oil tankers now idle.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

At least 18 ships have already been

[Phil Stewart]

attacked in and around the strait, according

[Jerry Doyle]

to the UN Foreign Ministers. Minister Arakshi, thank you so much for your time this morning.

[Phil Stewart]

Sir.

[Jerry Doyle]

Will the Straits of Hormuz remain closed so long as this war continues?

[Noel King]

It is only closed to the tankers and ships belonging to our enemies, to

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

those who are attacking us and their allies.

[Jerry Doyle]

Saudi Arabia has a pipeline running across the Red Sea that it has been able to pump out something like 7 million barrels per day. But that doesn't come close to hitting, avoiding the shortfall that has resulted from the strait being closed.

[Noel King]

How did Iran actually shut the Strait of Hormuz down? Like, how is it keeping these giant tankers from just going through?

[Jerry Doyle]

The easiest way to put it is Iran has shut down the strait by virtue of being where it is. There have been reports that some mines are in the water, some sea mines have been placed in water. Those haven't been confirmed, but it doesn't really matter whether those mines are there or not, whether there are a few mines, whether there are a lot of mines, whether there are no mines. As long as there's a threat, as long as there's a war going on, they have to act as though there are mines there. And Iran also has a large stockpile of anti ship missiles that it can easily target ships in the Strait of Hormuz and even into the Persian Gulf and below. Making a transit really difficult just by virtue of the fact that if you go through without permission, if you try to go through without permission, then there's a good chance that you will get hit.

[Noel King]

I understand how landmines work. How do you actually mine the water though?

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, there's several ways that sea mines can work. They can be placed on the seabed and activated by a ship passing overhead with acoustic sensors or magnetic sensors. They can float in the water water free, not attached to anything, just sort of driven around by the tides or water current that will be activated by brushing up against the ship or even the sound of a ship nearby. There's other mines that can be moored to the seabed so that you can sort of keep track of where they are. They float some distance below the surface where the hull of a ship would be and they stay in one place. So it's not that difficult to see how just any of those types of mines would make passage difficult.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Sources today have told CBS that Iran has laid about a dozen mines in the strait.

[Phil Stewart]

Mines are a scary thing to be dealing with. As a mariner, as a ship's captain, it's something we don't want to fool around with.

[Noel King]

This is maybe an insane question, Jerry, given what the United States has done in Iran over the last month, but it's. Is blocking the Strait of Hormuz legal? Like, this is such an important. This is such an important waterway. It seems like maybe at some point someone said, there's a maritime law. You've got to let ships pass, otherwise the global economy goes to hell.

[Jerry Doyle]

I mean, that is true. It is a maritime law. Freedom of navigation sort of underpins a lot of global commerce. Right. What's happening in the Strait of Hormuz sort of cuts against that. Iran has reportedly charged fees up to $2 million for a tanker or cargo ship to pass through. That also cuts against freedom of navigation and freedom of transit. And so, yeah, it's not legal what Iran is doing. It doesn't own the entire strait or all the waters of it. And ships, commercial ships, should be able to pass through without any trouble, but because of the war, they're not.

[Noel King]

Hmm. Okay. So arguably, everybody is breaking some laws in this war. Certainly in the US we are having that debate in earnest. But you told me that Iranian oil is getting out. What does that mean for Iran, and what does that mean for the rest of the world?

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, for Iran, it means that they're actually making more money per day than they were before the war because oil prices have gone up significantly. They are making something, by our estimates, about $139 million a day in March, which is up by 20 million or so from what they were making in February before the war, they've been able to get roughly 1.6 million barrels per day out, which is on par with what they were doing before the war. So because they're allowing their own oil out and they are taking the money for it, they're selling it mostly in China, that that allows them to continue to profit from their oil, even though nobody else is able to get those out. Now, for the rest of the world, the picture is not as great. 20% of the world's oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's oil is just a small fraction of that. So they've been able to get their oil out, but it is coming nowhere near making up the shortfall of having the entire strait closed. And so, as the global economy tries to absorb the shock of missing that daily supply of oil, you're starting to see it leak into all aspects or many different aspects of the economy. For instance, Things like fertilizer, which are heavily reliant on petroleum products and refining, those are starting to become more scarce.

[Noel King]

So if things don't change, we'll be paying a lot more for fertilizer.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

In just three weeks, the price of nitrogen fertilizer went from 480 to $700 a ton.

[Jerry Doyle]

So that means things like crop yields could start to become worse. And that of course would mean food prices could start to go up. Obviously, oil, also refined oil, petroleum products, you know, diesel fuel, ship fuel, gasoline for your car, those things are also becoming more scarce. The fuel I will need to buy this spring will be in the 30% higher than before the war started.

[Noel King]

It used to be 60 something to fill my tank, now it's 90 something.

[Jerry Doyle]

And as we use gasoline or diesel fuel to move around a lot of goods within the United States, within Europe, with other countries, other places with large land mass, you're going to start to see the price of those goods go up as well. So losing that supply of oil, we're just starting to see the effects of that. And I think a lot of economists expect that if it goes on for another month or another two months even, it could really become dramatic.

[Noel King]

I would think that if the war ends, Iran says, okay, it's over. The US says, okay, it's over. And then the Strait of Hormuz opens back up. We get back to normal pretty quickly.

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, it depends on how much damage had been done. Right. There's been a lot of missiles and bombs flying around the region that have hit gas production infrastructure, that have hit oil production and distribution infrastructure. So those are not things you can instantly switch on and have working back at 100%. Also the Strait of Hormuz, even if there is no war, even if Iran has promised to not fire into the strait, promised, there aren't any mines there. Even if there's been some sort of military solution where Iran's ability to launch missiles and mines has been completely and indisputably destroyed, it's still going to take some time to make sure that that entire waterway is free of mines.

[Noel King]

There is another key waterway in this region, Bab el Mandab. And as I understand it, if I'm looking at my map right, you've got the Strait of Hormuz on one side of Saudi Arabia. Bab el Mandab is on the other side of Saudi Arabia. Late last week, the Houthis in Yemen entered this war. And many analysts said, oh, wow, we might have another problem here. What is the threat on the other side of Saudi Arabia.

[Jerry Doyle]

Well, the threat there is, yeah, ships trying to pass north that need to get to the Suez Canal could come under a missile attack from the Houthis. What you would see if the Houthis entered the war and started attacking shipping on the other side is it would make it difficult for, among other things, that the Saudi pipeline, which feeds across Saudi Arabia and into an oil terminal on that side, make it harder to get oil to get out and also, of course, affect other types of shipping as well, not just oil. So there are additional shocks to commerce and to the economy that could happen if the Houthis really get involved in,

[Noel King]

so what, a month in. What options does the United States have here?

[Jerry Doyle]

Broadly, if you want to end the war, you have to either do it through military force, which is to completely ensure that Iran no longer has control of its military, no longer has the military means to shut down the strait or attack oil infrastructure around the region, or you negotiate a settlement like you get out of the war via diplomacy. Those are really the only two options at this point.

[Noel King]

Jerry Doyle is the global defense editor at Bloomberg News. Coming up Is the US Going to put boots on the ground?

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Support for the show today comes from hims. ED is more common than many people realize, and it can often be easier to treat than you might think. With hims, you can connect online with a licensed provider to explore personalized treatment options, all discreetly and on your terms. HIMSS offers access to personalized prescription treatment options for ED if prescribed, and their options range from personalized products to trusted generics, which can cost 95% less than brand names. Hims says they bring expert care straight to you with 100% online access to personalized treatments that put your goals first. You can get simple online access to personalized affordable care for ed, hair loss, weight loss and more by visiting hims.comexplained. that's hims.comexplained. for your free online visit himss.comexplained. featured products include compounded drug products which the FDA does not approve or verify for safety, effectiveness or quality. Prescription required. See website for details, restrictions and important safety information. Actual price will depend on product and subscription plan.

[Noel King]

Support for Today Explained comes from Shopify. Starting a new business has never been easy, says Shopify. But without the right tools, it can feel almost impossible. Possible? Perhaps Shopify can set you up for success. Shopify is a commerce platform used by millions of businesses around the world. They say they can help you tackle important tasks inventory, payments, analytics. So much more. No need to save multiple websites or try to figure out what platform is hosting the tool that you need. Everything is all in one place, making your life easier and your business operations smoother. Let Shopify be your commerce expert. With world class expertise in everything from managing inventory to international shipping to processing returns and beyond, you can get started with your own design studio. With hundreds of ready to use templates, Shopify helps you build a beautiful online store that matches your brand style. It's time to turn those what ifs into With Shopify today you can sign up for your $1 per month trial and start selling [e-mail] explained. Go to shopify.com explained what's that? That's shopify.com explained.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Support for the show comes from Anthropic, the team behind Claude. Do you know Claude, there's a reason you listen to the show. You want to actually understand what's going on, not just hear a headline. Thanks for listening. Anthropic's Claude works the same way. It doesn't flatten a complex topic into one neat take. It helps you think through the nuance challenges where your logic is thin and follows the threads most tools skip past. Deep research, pulls from dozens of sources, surfaces contradictions, and gives you a full breakdown you can actually trace and can help you get your work done. Cowork lets you point Claude at folders on your computer, notes research documents, and it just starts working through them. Thanks Claude. Anthropic was founded by scientists, FYI, who said they wanted AI that expands human thinking. FYI, you can see why problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner and try Claude Free at Claude AI todayexplained

[Noel King]

Foreign.

[Donald Trump]

This is Today Explained.

[Noel King]

I'm Noel King. It's Today Explained President Trump has been using Truth Social to telegraph his war plans. One of them is a possible attack on Kharg Island.

[Donald Trump]

Truth Social, if the Hermu Strait is not immediately, quote, open for business, we will conclude our lovely quote, stay in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their electric generating plants, oil wells and Kharg Island.

[Noel King]

Phil Stewart, chief national security correspondent from Reuters, calls the island Iran's economic jugular. About 90% of Iran's oil is exported through CARG and so blowing it up would be a very big deal. And Trump is reportedly considering something else that that would be a bigger deal,

[Phil Stewart]

which is deploying ground forces to go into the island either for a little bit of time or for a significant amount of time to really make sure that Iran can't get access to this place that is so vital for Its economy.

[Noel King]

If the US Were to deploy troops to Karg island, how big of a deal would that be?

[Phil Stewart]

Well, it would be a tremendous undertaking. It would be one of the most complicated operations that it's carried out in many years. And the reason for that is just because it's so close to Iran. You know, it's just miles off of Iran's mainland, and it's within rocket range and within range of drones and all kinds of other projectiles that could be fired that would be fired at US Forces seeking to occupy it.

[Noel King]

So if US Forces were to deploy to this island, we should not assume that Iran would throw its hands up and say, okay, guys, Iran would fight back.

[Phil Stewart]

They would absolutely fight back. And not only would they fight back, but, you know, the war that's already become a regional war would almost certainly intensify because the Iranians haven't really retaliated against energy infrastructure in the way that they could. If Carg island were taken off the board. For them, they would really see it as like, this is an existential threat and it is time to pull out all the stops. They have said they would attack energy infrastructure elsewhere in the Gulf, So all of US Allies would see their energy infrastructure attack. They've threatened desalinization plants that Arab allies of the United States rely on in order to have water for their people.

[Noel King]

Bahrain's government said an Iranian drone strike damaged a Bahraini desalination plant.

[Phil Stewart]

Kuwait says one Indian national has been killed in an attack on a power and water desalination plant. All of this infrastructure is just sitting out in the open, and it requires an intense amount of air defense to protect. And that's what we've seen is just the US and its Gulf allies going through enormous amounts of air defense to try and protect these cities and structures and bases. And if the Iranians were really to go after energy infrastructure in a serious way, it could have global repercussions very, very quickly.

[Noel King]

All right, so we actually don't know what the President's plans are with respect to Carg island, but we are speaking on Monday morning, you and I are. And this morning, Trump posted on Truth Social, the US Will completely obliterate all

[Donald Trump]

of their electric generating plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island.

[Noel King]

I mean, that is as. That seems like as explicit a threat as one could make. What do you make of what he said there?

[Phil Stewart]

The President has really vacillated between these two extremes. One is escalation, like he's talking about in that tweet. Full maximalist escalation where the US Will go after the most important energy infrastructure that Iran has. And it's a nation that relies on energy for its entire economy. Right. And for, you know, powering hospitals and schools and other things that are important not just for the military, but for civilians.

[Jerry Doyle]

Our military is the greatest in the world by far. Iran is being decimated.

[Noel King]

Thank you.

[Phil Stewart]

Those kind of maximalist comments on the one hand. On the other hand, he's talking about negotiation. So we.

[Jerry Doyle]

We've had very good negotiations today with Iran.

[Phil Stewart]

All weekend, you had senior Trump administration officials talking about their efforts to negotiate an end to the. To the. To the conflict. So we don't really know where we're going to end up. And one possibility that where we could end up is something in the middle, where you have U.S. forces temporarily deploying to some places to put more pressure on Iran, something that the US Military has been planning to do. And it is possible that instead of choosing one of these two options, one is complete escalation and the other is negotiation, you might see, you know, come to fruition these plans the military has been putting on the board for some time, which are, you know, limited occupation of islands or shoreline along the Strait of Hormuz.

[Noel King]

The problem, I think one might say, is that limited occupation seems to be something that the US has planned for in the past, and then it wasn't so limited.

[Phil Stewart]

Yeah, absolutely. You know, there is a real risk of mission creep, but I would argue that that is something that the folks that I've spoken to are aware of. They're aware of the mission creep risks. They don't have the kind of military movements of ground forces into the region that you would expect ahead of a major ground invasion. So all of the kinds of things that we're seeing, the movement of forces that we've seen are much more closely aligned with the idea of a limited operation and not a major invasion.

[Noel King]

Tell me what we're seeing specifically. What makes you think

[Phil Stewart]

so? You know, so far in recent days, we've had a movement of, you know, a couple thousand paratroopers into the region. And those folks could be some of the kinds of people that would parachute onto Carg island, for example, or might parachute onto some of these other smaller islands that are also significant for protecting the Strait of Hormuz, which, you know, when the President isn't talking about Car island is one of the things he also talks about.

[Jerry Doyle]

They have to open it up. They have to open up the strait.

[Phil Stewart]

There's different ways to militarily open that strait. The question Is, you know, will he pull the trigger and carry out this limited operation that would include not just those paratroopers, but also thousands of Marines and sailors that have been moving into the region in recent days to give the President these extra options?

[Noel King]

One of the big questions with this war time and again has been, why? Why, why? Why are we doing what we're doing? What is the strategic principle behind what we're doing? So Senator Lindsey Graham, who's been acting as sort of a proxy for the White House, has gone on TV and

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

said, here's what I tell President Trump, Keep it up for a few more weeks. Take Carg island, where all of the resources they have to produce oil, control that island, let this regime die on a vine.

[Noel King]

And that is the argument for deploying troops, or we did Iwo Jima.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

We can do this.

[Noel King]

Is this argument convincing people in Washington? Is it convincing the people who need to be convinced?

[Phil Stewart]

You know, I think that Senator Graham's argument is very persuasive among certain people in Washington. And certainly US Military planners believe that Iran responds to pressure. Right. If you look back to the killing of, you know, Iran's General Qasem Soleimani during the first Trump administration, you know, there was a lot of. There are a lot of folks that believe that Iran's, you know, provocative actions against the United States and its allies kind of really scaled back after that, that they. That they respond to pressure. Now there's another school of thought that Iran absolutely will not buckle when under pressure. That is actually part of the kind of ethos that they are. You know, the United States is their. Is their top adversary along with Israel, and that in the event of attack, people are going to kind of rally around that identity as sort of the resistance force. And that is a very powerful argument as well, because Iran has traditionally seen themselves as revolutionaries, as kind of a resistance against the United States and against Israel. And now that they're under attack, the question is, would an escalating attack really force them to back away from that identity, or will it kind of be have them double down?

[Noel King]

I think Americans really want to know whether we are going to see troops en masse deployed into the region, whether boots on the ground, so to speak, will come to pass. You've been reporting on this for a long time. What set of circumstances do you think would need to be in place in order for us to deploy into Iran or into this region in a big way? Like. Like what could happen here?

[Phil Stewart]

So this is the most important question, and I'm so glad you asked it and asked it in that way because really, there are a lot of things that can happen once you start putting more and more skin in the game, as it were, by deploying ground forces. You know, if there were a large strike that killed a large number of U.S. troops, if Iran decides to, you know, go big in its retaliation and is successful, because I think they have tried to, you know, target US troops and have killed 13 and wounded more than 300. So it's not as if there's no cost.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Three US military members are dead and

[Noel King]

five others are hurt after heavy bombing

[Megan Rapinoe]

continued in Iran overnight into this morning.

[Phil Stewart]

Six U.S. service members have been killed during Operation Epic Fury.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Several servicemen were injured, according to the Pentagon, after an Iranian missile and drone slammed into this American air base in Saudi Arabia.

[Phil Stewart]

But it's not, you know, so far, the United States has not seen the kind of major attack that some of these military planners really feared. Before the war began, there was real concern that there could be a catastrophic strike on U.S. bases or U.S. personnel that could actually create a lot of political risk here and force the United States to double down or force US Allies if it was a big strike on desalinization plants or major cities in the Gulf, that you could really see this becoming an intensified war much more than it is right now.

[Noel King]

Phil Stewart, he's Reuters chief national security correspondent. Peter Balan on Rosen produced today's show and Jolie Meyers edited. Andrea Lopez Crusado is our fact checker. Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore engineered I'm Noel King. It's Today explained.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

How many discounts does USAA Auto Insurance offer?

[Phil Stewart]

Too many to say here.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Multi vehicle discount, Safe driver discount, New vehicle discount, Storage discount.

[Noel King]

How many discounts will you stack up? Tap the banner or visit usaa.com autodiscounts restrictions apply.