Today, Explained – Episode Summary: "I Was Told There Would Be Deals" Release Date: July 9, 2025 | Host: Vox

Overview

In this episode of Today, Explained, hosts Noel King and Talman Joseph Smith delve into the aftermath of President Trump's ambitious trade policy announcements, focusing on his promise to secure "90 deals in 90 days." The discussion navigates through the complexities of international trade negotiations, the actual outcomes versus expectations, and the broader economic implications of the administration's tariff strategies.

The Promise of 90 Deals

Noel King opens the conversation by revisiting President Trump's declaration from April, where he announced the implementation of significant tariffs on multiple countries—an event he refers to as "Liberation Day." The initial shock led to market volatility, with the president subsequently pausing the tariffs to negotiate trade deals.

Noel King [00:09]: "President Trump is sending 'Dear Mr. Japan' letters to world leaders telling them that new tariffs are coming on August 1st."

Trump's trade advisor, Peter Navarro, had confidently proclaimed on CNBC that these tariffs would bolster the U.S. economy by generating substantial revenue.

Peter Navarro [00:09]: "The tariff revenues are coming in and really helping this country."

However, ninety days later, the reality fell short of the promises.

Evaluating the 90-Day Deal Milestone

Talman Joseph Smith from The New York Times provides a critical analysis of the situation, highlighting that the administration secured only a fraction of the intended deals.

Amy Williams [02:12]: "What we've seen from Trump is three much smaller agreements. One with the UK which is a couple of pages long, and it has in it promises that the two sides will keep talking."

Unlike traditional trade agreements, which are comprehensive and require congressional approval, Trump's deals were minimalistic, often mere snapshots lacking substantive commitments.

Peter Navarro [03:23]: "The special relationship and external bond... will soon be stronger than ever before."

The expectation of 90 deals was drastically unmet, with only a handful materializing, primarily with major allies like the UK.

Challenges in International Negotiations

Noel King probes into the reasons behind the administration's limited success, questioning the reluctance of other nations to acquiesce to Trump's demands.

Talman Joseph Smith [04:42]: "Other countries have their own rules and regulations. They have their own tax laws."

Countries resisted changes to their domestic policies, such as the European Union's value-added tax, which Trump opposed but found difficult to alter due to sovereignty issues.

Moreover, politically sensitive issues like Japan's rice imports posed significant hurdles.

Sally from Finance [05:48]: "The president singled out rice as a sticking point... the U.S. wants Japan to buy more rice."

These complexities made it challenging to secure comprehensive trade agreements within the stipulated timeframe.

Extension of Negotiations and Ongoing Efforts

As the initial 90-day period concluded without achieving the promised deals, the administration extended the deadline, signaling an ongoing negotiation process.

Amy Williams [06:34]: "Donald Trump has posted a handful of letters onto Truth Social... that's about three and a half weeks from today."

Countries, while resisting full-blown trade wars, continued to engage in negotiations, balancing between making deals and preparing for potential retaliation.

Sector-Specific Tariffs and Economic Impacts

The discussion shifts to the introduction of sector-specific tariffs, a strategic move under the Section 232 of US Trade Law, allowing tariffs on specific industries deemed a national security risk.

Amy Williams [09:08]: "We're seeing tariffs of 25% on autos and auto parts... 50% on steel and aluminum imports."

New tariffs on copper and other sectors were previewed, adding layers of complexity to the economic landscape. Talman Joseph Smith emphasizes the uncertainty these tariffs bring to businesses, hindering their ability to plan effectively.

Amy Williams [10:59]: "There is so much uncertainty that at some point the uncertainty becomes the new constant thing."

Economic Performance Amid Tariff Turbulence

A significant portion of the episode examines the paradox between the expected negative economic fallout from the tariffs and the reality of relatively stable economic indicators.

Talman Joseph Smith [14:38]: "I see 4.1% unemployment, which is historically low still... GDP... 2.5% is sort of the expectation right now. And so looking at that, that's actually an okay economy."

Contrary to predictions of rampant inflation and economic downturn, the U.S. economy showed resilience. Talman attributes this to prior stocking of inventories before tariff implementations, temporarily masking the tariffs' negative effects.

Talman Joseph Smith [16:04]: "We're actually in this limbo period where once they sell down that inventory, they're going to have to deal with higher tariffs."

Labor Market and Immigration Policies

The conversation addresses concerns over potential job losses and economic disruptions due to proposed deportations of undocumented workers, who constitute a significant portion of the labor force in sectors like agriculture and construction.

Noel King [20:05]: "We also heard dire predictions about what was going to happen to the labor market from the President's actions on immigration."

While isolated cases of deportations occurred, a widespread impact on the labor market had yet to materialize, though experts caution about future repercussions.

Talman Joseph Smith [20:32]: "I'd say yes and no because there are isolated cases... overall, we've not seen a macro impact."

Stock Market Reactions and Public Perception

The episode scrutinizes the stock market's fluctuating responses to tariff announcements and retreats, illustrating a complex relationship between political decisions and market behaviors.

Noel King [22:46]: "In April, we get the announcement of Liberation Day. The markets go absolutely wild... But ultimately, Tal, for the past couple months, it really does seem like nothing bad is happening in the market."

Peter Navarro reflects on the initial chaos caused by sweeping tariff announcements, which eventually led to a cautious market adaptation.

Peter Navarro [23:25]: "Those with good eyes, with bad eyes... It was globally so high that in many cases it would have effectively embargoed trade."

Long-Term Economic Outlook

Talman Joseph Smith offers a tempered perspective on the economy's trajectory, suggesting that while Trump’s policies may not lead to immediate economic collapse, they introduce prolonged uncertainty.

Talman Joseph Smith [25:00]: "Bad policy doesn't necessarily mean a recession. Sometimes... bad policy just contributes to muddling along."

Conclusion

The episode concludes with a balanced view of President Trump's trade policies. While the administration fell short of its ambitious trade deal targets, the U.S. economy has shown unexpected resilience. However, ongoing uncertainties from sector-specific tariffs and immigration policies suggest that the full impact of these strategies remains to be seen.

Talman Joseph Smith [25:56]: "We should keep in mind that we might just muddle along."

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Navarro [00:09]: "The tariff revenues are coming in and really helping this country."
• Amy Williams [02:12]: "What we've seen from Trump is three much smaller agreements."
• Talman Joseph Smith [14:38]: "I see 4.1% unemployment, which is historically low still."
• Talman Joseph Smith [25:00]: "Bad policy doesn't necessarily mean a recession..."

Final Thoughts This episode offers a comprehensive examination of the Trump administration's trade policies, highlighting the gap between lofty promises and tangible outcomes. Through expert analysis and insightful commentary, Today, Explained paints a nuanced picture of the current economic landscape, emphasizing both resilience and the shadows of uncertainty.