Iran won the war

Summary

Today, Explained – "Iran won the war" (June 17, 2026)
Podcast: Today, Explained | Host: Sean Ramasweram | Produced by Vox

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Episode Overview

This episode examines the aftermath of the U.S.–Iran War of 2026 and explores the unexpected victory and empowerment of Iran, both in terms of its government and society. The hosts, alongside expert guests Nargis Bijoli and Holly Digress, delve into why the United States failed to accomplish its objectives, how a younger generation now dominates Iran’s political and military establishment, and the complicated reality on the ground for ordinary Iranians. The episode focuses on strategic shifts in the region, internal transformations within Iran, and the lived experience of its people amidst wartime and state-mandated internet blackouts.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Failure of U.S. Objectives & Iran’s Unexpected Victory

[02:13–05:21]

• The U.S. never had a clear strategy in the war against Iran, with shifting goals: bringing freedom to Iranians, toppling the Islamic Republic, and preventing nuclear development.
• Massive military actions (decapitation strikes, elimination of leadership) failed to topple the regime—instead, they triggered internal transformation.
• Trump administration now faces potentially paying $300 billion to settle the war, dwarfing figures from prior administrations.
• Quote:
  • "It was never really clear what this was really about... And now what we have coming out of this war is a stronger and more entrenched political establishment that leans heavily towards the IRGC... that's going to create a fundamentally different Middle East going forward."
    — Nargis Bijoli [03:39–05:21]

2. The Rise of a New, Younger Iranian Political Class

[05:21–08:22]

• Leadership has shifted to the younger generation: Gen Xers and elder millennials, epitomized by Mojtaba Khamenei (son of the former Ayatollah).
• This new cohort is marked by confidence and boldness, lacking the old generation’s anxieties about U.S. power.
• Having proved themselves in conflicts in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, they are technologically savvy and skilled at information warfare, outmaneuvering Western and Israeli propaganda online.
• Quote:
  • "You're now dealing with a generation that doesn't have [a psychological inferiority complex]. That's fundamentally different... What has happened in Iran is now you have Gen Xers and elder millennials running the show."
    — Nargis Bijoli [06:25–07:10]

3. Shift from Revolutionary Ideology to Technocratic Governance

[08:43–09:39]

• The focus has moved from exporting the revolution to efficient, technocratic state management.
• There's a collective push to apply wartime efficiency to broader government operations.
• Daily life during the war was surprisingly unchanged for many citizens, with minimal shortages and continuance of services.
• Quote:
  • "This generation is not interested in advancing the revolution anymore. The revolution happened. It's a fact. Now they're interested in governing a state."
    — Nargis Bijoli [08:43–08:49]

4. Iran’s Growing Regional Power and Gulf Geopolitics

[09:39–11:50]

• The U.S. security architecture in the Middle East has eroded: American bases are now seen as liabilities by Gulf states.
• Gulf governments are negotiating coexistence with Iran, sometimes making payments to Tehran.
• Iran has decisively reasserted its hegemony over the Persian Gulf, signaling a historic regional power shift.
• Quote:
  • "The Persian Gulf region is fundamentally transformed... Iran sees itself as having won this war, and because this generation is bolder, it's actually going to be like, we're not going to budge."
    — Nargis Bijoli [10:58–11:50]

5. Life for Ordinary Iranians: Internet Blackouts and Social Coping

[15:26–22:50]

• Communication and reportage from Iran became nearly impossible due to repeated government-imposed internet blackouts, the longest globally—affecting millions within the diaspora and isolating the population.
• Blackouts serve as cover for regime violence (e.g., massacres of protesters) and economic hardship (loss of $80 million daily, 20% workforce unemployment during blackout).
• After the blackout lifted (May 26), Iranians used humor, dark and light, to process their trauma and frustration.
• Quote:
  • "One of the things that I saw that stood out to me—someone said hello from Iran's prison. After three months, we came from solitary confinement to the general ward."
    — Holly Digress [21:28–21:39]
  • "I'm not afraid of missiles, I'm afraid of going offline and I'm scared to sleep and wake up in the morning to no Internet."
    — Quoted by Holly Digress [23:15–23:30]

6. Ongoing Tension Between Control and Popular Will

[24:29–26:58]

• The blackouts are more about narrative control than national security, underscoring the regime’s authoritarian nature.
• Popular anti-regime sentiment remains strong despite government claims.
• Quote:
  • "Iran's freedom has never been dependent on the will of another country... Iran's freedom seekers are still alive and they'll keep going step by step."
    — Quoting dissident rapper Tumor Salehi, via Holly Digress [26:35–26:58]

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Notable Quotes & Moments with Timestamps

• "Why so salty, sir? Oh, J.K. Rowling. I know why President Trump didn't achieve any of his objectives in the war with Iran."
  — Sean Ramaswerum [00:31]
• "We have a completely new and younger generation in charge in Iran that is bolder, that is not as afraid of the United States... these were conditions that Iran could have never made in February of 2026."
  — Nargis Bijoli [04:08–04:44]
• "If anyone spends enough time on the Internet, this is not contrived. This is a generation that grew up online."
  — Nargis Bijoli [08:00]
• "As any American... who can't message their family... that feels like the least of your worries when your country's being bombed, but I take the point."
  — Sean Ramaswerum [19:55]

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Important Timestamps

• [02:13] — Nargis Bijoli introduces key themes about Iran’s strategic evolution post-war.
• [05:21] — Deep dive into the new generational leadership of Iran.
• [08:43] — Shift in focus from ideology to governance.
• [09:39] — Overview of Iran’s new regional influence and waning U.S. grip.
• [15:26] — Holly Digress describes the Iranian diaspora experience during wartime.
• [17:28] — Impact and ramifications of the internet blackout.
• [23:00] — Iranians’ social media reactions and dark humor during crisis.
• [26:35] — Quoting dissident rapper on sustaining hope for Iranian freedom.

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Tone & Style

The episode blends minutely detailed foreign-policy analysis with personal perspectives and lived experience, mixing the wry, conversational style typical of Vox’s Today, Explained with firsthand expertise from Iranian scholars and observers. The tone oscillates between analytic, empathetic, and darkly humorous—capturing the gravity and complexity of the wartime moment for both policymakers and ordinary Iranians.

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Conclusion

"Iran won the war" reveals a paradoxical outcome: a war intended to break the Islamic Republic instead triggers its metamorphosis and emboldens a new, younger regime with both regional ambitions and a capacity for modern governance—albeit still autocratic at its core. The toll on ordinary Iranians remains severe, as stories of isolation and resilience under internet blackouts serve as a dark backdrop to the broader geopolitical shift. Through rich expert commentary and eyewitness detail, this episode provides a compelling and humanizing account of a pivotal moment for Iran and the Middle East.

Transcript

[Sean Ramaswerum]

The newly 80 year old President of the United States is in France for the G7 summit. Reporters keep asking him about the peace deal. He says he'll be signing with Iran this Friday, mostly because no one knows the deets.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

He gave him $1.7 billion in cash, Green cash from banks.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

But the president wants to talk about Barack Obama.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

They tried to bribe their way out of it. And you know what the Iranians did? They laughed at Obama and they said he's a stupid son of a bit.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Why so salty, sir? Oh, J.K. rowling. I know why President Trump didn't achieve any of his objectives in the war with Iran. A war that's cost Americans maybe $100 billion so far. And Trump might end up giving Iran $300 billion to settle this war. Compare that to Obama's 1.7 billion and

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

hundreds of millions of dollars.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Iran won the war. Coming up on Today Explained from Vox.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Okay, thank you very much.

[Kelly Wesinger]

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[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

I mean I see this I like. It's so incredible.

[Holly Digress]

Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.

[Amina Al Saadi]

Bomb.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Okay, it's Today Explained. Nargis Bijoli recently co wrote a piece titled Iran's New Grand Strategy in Foreign Affairs. Here's a sample. Rather than breaking Iran, the crucible of war has transformed in unanticipated ways. To survive and establish new strategic advantages, the Islamic Republic had to adapt and innovate, changing how it waged war, ran the state and managed society. We wanted to hear more and we started with the obvious. The United States is taking an L.

[Nargis Bijoli]

Yeah, well I think Part of the problem is we didn't really ever know what this war was about. There were a few days when this war was about, let's bring freedom to

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

the Iranian people, to the great, proud people of Iran. I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand.

[Nargis Bijoli]

Then there were a few days when this war was about, you know, the death blows to the Islamic Republic, a

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

vicious group of very hard, terrible people.

[Nargis Bijoli]

And then there were also, you know, like, this is going to prevent Iran from making a nuclear weapon.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

I'll say it again. They can never have a nuclear weapon.

[Nargis Bijoli]

Even though in June we supposedly obliterated their nuclear weapons program.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Completely and totally obliterated. Their sites were obliterated. Obliterated. Totally obliterated.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

The order we received from our commander

[Holly Digress]

in chief was focused, it was powerful,

[Sean Ramaswerum]

and it was clear.

[Nargis Bijoli]

It was never really clear what this was really about. We had huge decapitation strikes that happened across Iran on the first days of this war that took out essentially the founding generation of the revolution.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Iran's formerly supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, is dead.

[Nargis Bijoli]

We thought we were somewhere where the Islamic Republic was on its, like, you know, on its last legs. And all we had to do was push it a little bit more.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take.

[Nargis Bijoli]

And so what we have now, in what are we. In June of 2026, three and a half months after this war started, we have a completely new and younger generation in charge in Iran that is bolder, that is not as afraid of the United States. And then on the other hand, you also have obviously the Strait of Hormuz, which was not under necessarily this kind of Iranian control before now is. And you have Iran again putting its will and basically saying, Israel needs to pull back from Lebanon.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

The end of the war in Lebanon is quite connected to putting an end

[Sean Ramaswerum]

to the war on Iran.

[Nargis Bijoli]

These were conditions that Iran could have never made in February of 2026. And now what we have coming out of this war is a stronger and more entrenched political establishment that leans heavily towards the IRGC and Iranian sort of military that is bolder and that now has sort of shown itself as being a key pillar of West Asia that's going to create a fundamentally different Middle east going forward.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Yeah. Tell us more about this new regime, because I think everyone's kind of heard, oh, yeah, new ayatollah even more hardline than previous ayatollah. Does that sum up this new generation that's in charge of Iran now? Or is there more to it?

[Nargis Bijoli]

There's a lot more to it. So first of all, I think one of the problems we've always had with Iran here is we think about it as a dictatorship, as the country led by like one man at the top. That was part of the reason why they thought that they could kill the father, Ali Khamenei, and then the society system would crumble under him. But you have a lot of discussion and debate all throughout the political system and throughout society in Iran. It is a highly dynamic system and a highly dynamic society. What we now have is, yes, we have the son of the former leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is now in charge. But what he represents is a whole scale generational shift that's happened in Iran. We have a younger generation that first of all grew up pretty much after the revolution in Iran had already happened. Their side was already in power. That brings a certain kind of confidence and swagger to it. This generation fought the United States and Israel in Iraq, in Syria, in Lebanon, and from their calculations, they won in those theaters. So they are also a generation that is not afraid of confronting the Americans and the Israelis. They experience themselves on the battlefield, how they were able to push back the US Military, for example, from Iraq and so on and so forth. So there's a boldness to this generation. Their father's generation came about in the 60s and 70s. Yes, they were anti imperialist, yes, they fought against the Shah and sort of having the United States involved in Iran's affairs. But still there was a level of respect for the might of what US power meant and psychologically, a sort of inferiority complex. You're now dealing with a generation that doesn't have that, that's fundamentally different. What has happened in Iran is now you have Gen Xers and Elder Millennials now running the show. I mean, this is one of the reasons they were able to beat out the propaganda game.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Are you talking about like the Lego AI videos? Yeah, the Lego videos make Israel great again. The government is run by pedophiles, which were funny, which were really funny.

[Nargis Bijoli]

And they're still putting them out. Right. And they're utilizing trap songs and like rap lyrics. And you can tell it's young.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

You started the war, you thought you would win.

[Holly Digress]

Uh huh.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Now look at the mess that your country is in.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Look at it.

[Nargis Bijoli]

I mean, if anyone spends enough time on the Internet, this is not contrived. This is a generation that grew up online. There is a particular kind of shift that has happened that, that now Iran is being led by people who are of the 21st century, whereas a lot of these other countries are still being led by people who are fundamentally formed in the 20th century.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Okay, Boomer. I mean, how does the fact that Iran is now being led by Gen Xers, millennials, and not boomers like it was before or like our country currently is, affect the new state of affairs in the country? I mean, what does that mean for the way the country's being governed internally?

[Nargis Bijoli]

This generation is not interested in advancing the revolution anymore.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Right?

[Nargis Bijoli]

The revolution happened. It's a fact. And now they're interested in governing a state. What this war has done is it's shown that there's a technocratic class in Iran that is of the younger generation that has now come to the forefront, that was able to not only execute this war in a very efficient, and I never like to call wars clean because they're not clean, but in a way that made sense to people and they could see what was happening. And you hear from Iranians over and over again that besides the sounds of the bombs, we didn't feel like we were in war. There was no shortages of anything. And so now what this new generation is attempting to do is to say, we will bring that technocratic expertise to not just our military affairs, but to running the country itself. And that is sort of the big question right now is can they deliver on that?

[Sean Ramaswerum]

How has this new government shifted the balance of power in the region?

[Nargis Bijoli]

The United States began to set up its security architecture in the Middle east starting with the first Gulf War, in which it really began to establish its permanent military bases in the Arab Gulf regions. The promise was, bring in US Military bases. We will guarantee your safety, and we will also bring you into the American fold. You'll have great business opportunities. You'll make a ton of money. What we now see is that the Gulf understands that having American bases is actually a liability. Because the United States started a war without consulting them, it was not able to protect any of these Gulf countries and their economies. Iran is the size of Western Europe. I feel like we forget that a lot in the United States. But the reality is Iran is a massive country geographically. It's a massive country population wise. And so the Gulf countries need to figure out a way to live with Iran that is no longer guaranteed through Big Brother protection of the United States that actually didn't materialize. So moving forward, first of all, it seems like the Gulf Arab countries have come to this realization, some quicker than others, but in essence, they are making payments to Iran. Now they're figuring out ways to be able to sort of co live with them into the future without Iran being isolated like it was in the past. That's a huge difference. The Persian Gulf region is fundamentally transformed. It will no longer be a place where the Americans can do whatever they want. It will now be a place where Iran will reassert its hegemony over that region. Iran sees itself as having won this war, and because this generation is bolder, it's actually going to be like, we're not going to budge. If that means your economy is going to hurt more, fine. You've been hurting our economy for 47 years. We're just going to play a game of chicken and see who blinks first. That's this new generation that we're dealing with.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Nargis Bijoli is an associate professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Now that we've heard about the Iranian government, we want to hear about the Iranian people. And we will when we're back.

[Amina Al Saadi]

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[Kelly Wesinger]

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[Sean Ramaswerum]

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[Sean Ramaswerum]

You are listening to Today Explained.

[Holly Digress]

My name is Holly Digress. I am a Senior fellow at the D.C. based think tank the Washington Institute, a curator of the Uranus newsletter on Substack. I'm also Iranian American and spent my formative years in Iran.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

And who were you rooting for last night when Iran played New Zealand?

[Holly Digress]

I mean I know it's a controversial topic right now, but I was cheering for Iran, Mohammed Roebi for Iran.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

But you felt complicated about it or.

[Holly Digress]

No, I think there's just complex feelings right now because of everything that's happened from January, starting with the unprecedented massacre of anti regime protesters to the war itself. But you know there was a time when Team Meli as we call them or the national team in Persian used to unite Iranians from Tehran to Tarangilis. And I grew up in LA before moving to Iran and I remember the 1998 World cup when the US and Iran played and Iranians were dancing on the street in Westwood Boulevard in Los Angeles and I remember my cousins telling me it was the first time Iranians in Iran were dancing on the street, which was an act of defiance in its own and such a shock at the time. And then Years later, of course, I would live in Iran and actually take part in two of those celebrations for two different World Cups. So, you know, there's a lot of feelings there.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Well, we just spent a bunch of time, Holly, talking about the new government in Iran and how it's been operating since this war began. We're coming to you to ask what life has been like for the Iranian people since this war started. And it's hard to know because it's been hard to access the Iranian people.

[Holly Digress]

Throughout this war. What we've really struggled with is getting a pulse on the Iranian people, as you noted. And that was because there was a state imposed Internet blackout. It was the fifth iteration and the longest globally according to the Internet Monitor Netblocks. And so for people like me, who obviously can't travel back to Iran and relies on Iranian like monitoring Persian language, social media, or even texting on messaging apps like WhatsApp or Telegram with people inside Iran, I effectively, and not just me, but roughly 4 to 10 million members of the Iranian diaspora were cut off from contact with their friends and loved ones in Iran. And that was really gutting. And that being said, I should probably go back in time and explain what the other ones were. We first saw this happen during the bloody November 2019 protests, which security forces killed 1500 protesters and used the dark cover of an Internet shutdown to cover it up. And then we saw again during the 2022 woman life freedom uprising. And then it was these two wars, one being the 12 day war in June 2025, and of course this recent war. And then the one I would say was the worst of it in terms of communications blackout was in January and that was unprecedented massacre of thousands of protesters at the hands of security forces in a span of 48 hours.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

So do Iranians find a way to sort of cope with these Internet blackouts? Is there, I don't know, a sense of routine at this point?

[Holly Digress]

Well, there's several things happening there. I think coping is a. It's a hard word to use. Just imagine your phone stops working. Like, as any American who can't message their family or friends that are maybe living in other countries, they can't go on Twitter or Instagram. Like maybe you can't watch Netflix anymore. And so, like, that feels like the

[Sean Ramaswerum]

least of your worries when your country's being bombed. But I take the point.

[Holly Digress]

No, but I'm just trying to give you a sense of, like, how it feels to not have access. And believe it or not, that was the sentiment Iranians felt So one of the big impacts of the Internet shutdown started with really having deep ramifications for the Iranian economy. The Internet blackout during the war cost, according to an Iranian businessman, $80 million daily. And 20% of Iran's workforce lost their jobs during the blackout.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

When and why did this Internet blackout come to an end? Exactly.

[Holly Digress]

So it came to an end on May 26th. So once I think that the Islamic Republic felt that the negotiations for the Memorandum of Understanding were going somewhere,

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

I

[Holly Digress]

got the sense that that's when they felt comfortable enough to lift the switch and turn the Internet back on. And it also coincided with comments from President masarpageskian. But I think it was overall a decision made by the Supreme National Security Council, because I think for them, they were alleging it was on the purpose of national security. But I would argue otherwise.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

And what did you hear from people once this blackout was lifted?

[Holly Digress]

One of the things that I saw that stood out to me, someone said hello from Iran's prison. After three months, we came from solitary confinement to the general ward.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Wow.

[Holly Digress]

And I saw people start sharing stories, sharing things that they remember from the war or their anti regime sentiment. Some diaspora Iranians began to post, like, often humorously, about what Iranians inside Iran missed. So they used the hashtag when you weren't here, and they started telling them, well, this happened and that happened. And some of them were taking jobs at the clerical establishment or at pro war, anti war Iranians. But there was a lot of humor in that moment, but also a frustration of feeling like their rights were taken away because they were unable to access the outside world. But there was also a real fear. I remember that someone started saying maybe a week after the Internet went back online, then she lived in the west and she was saying her mom kept calling every hour and she was like, mom, why do you keep calling? Everything's fine here. She's like, I'm afraid that I won't see her face for a long time again.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

And I mean, I imagine there's residual fears that they could just hit the kill switch again. Right. Whenever they feel like it. In two weeks, in two months, in two years.

[Holly Digress]

Absolutely. And you know, just the other week we had these tit for tat strikes that happened. The first, I think, was the one between Iran and Israel over Lebanon. And I remember some of the commentary at that time was this real deep fear. And I'll read some of what Iranians said at that during that 48 hour span where we thought that there might be a resumption of the War. So someone said, please don't start a war. I don't want to be unemployed for another three months. Another Iranian said, I'm another Internet shutdown in Iran away from a psychiatric hospital. And then there was I'm not afraid of missiles, I'm afraid of going offline and I'm scared to sleep and wake up in the morning to no Internet. And then there were other ones that were Iranians that were just, you know, using dark humor, just making light of the situation. And these also stood out to me. Now is the best time to use the excuse of the Internet shut down to get that pretty girl's number. And then there was, I'm against war for now because I can't accept that. I've seen three wars and in all three I've been single. And then finally I said to my friend in Iran, what are you doing? He said, downloading and saving porn. Oh my God, he's worried about another Internet shutdown.

[Nargis Bijoli]

Oh man.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

I mean, presumably the government knows this sentiment exists that the Internet is tantamount to liberty for the Iranian people. And as we heard earlier in the show, this government for all its faults, is evidently interested in the work of governance. Does that mean they might get the message that these Internet blackouts are wildly unpopular and maybe keeping the Internet free ish and open ish is a ticket to keeping your people reasonably content?

[Holly Digress]

I think if they were the in the business of doing the kind of governance that their people wanted, they wouldn't have had these cyclical anti regime protests over the years. But to your point, the truth is I think they really, after the three months and once they felt comfortable enough with the ceasefire negotiations, they turned the Internet back on because they felt safe. But when I look at the big picture for them, this shutdown and the ones before it is really not a matter of national security, but one about controlling the narrative and also making sure that Iranians voices aren't heard by the outside world. At the end of the day, this is an authoritarian government that has not had the interests of the Iranian people at heart. They've been dealing with systemic mismanagement, corruption and repression for decades. And that's why people have been going to the streets for years. And I'll quote Iran based dissident rapper Tumor Salehi. When the news emerged that the memorandum of understanding was being finalized, he posted a video on Instagram and he said, Iran's freedom has never been dependent on the will of another country. So this path won't reach a dead end, whether through war, an agreement or even the support of other countries. Iran's freedom seekers are still alive and they'll keep going step by step.

[Sean Ramaswerum]

Okay, that's it for the show. If you want even more from Holly, she recently wrote Iran's Next Internet Blackout Is Inevitable for the Atlantic. Peter Ballin on Rosen produced Today with Kelly Wesinger, who's celebrating a birthday. Happy birthday, Kelly. Happy birthday, Kendrick. Happy birthday, Nim. Amina Al Saadi Edited David Tadashore and Patrick Boyd mixed Gabriel Dunatov Fact checked I'm Sean Ramaswerum. This is TODAY Explained it.

[Peter Ballin on Rosen]

Foreign.

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