Is Cuba next?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – “Is Cuba next?”

Date: March 9, 2026
Hosts: Noel King, Sean Rameswaram
Guests: Vivian Salama (The Atlantic), Senator Lindsey Graham (excerpts), Joe Estuares (Cuban journalist in exile)

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Main Theme

This episode explores the United States’ growing interventionist posture in the Western Hemisphere, specifically debating if Cuba is the next target for regime change after recent dramatic US actions in Venezuela and Iran. The episode features analysis from journalist Vivian Salama on the White House’s motivations and strategy and an emotional perspective from Cuban exile journalist Joe Estuares, who discusses what regime change could mean for the island’s people.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Escalation: From Iran and Venezuela to Cuba

• The episode opens with chaotic recent headlines: Iran’s leadership succession, President Trump toying with the draft, and Senator Lindsey Graham’s aggressive statements about Iran and Cuba.
• Senator Graham notably declares, “Iran is going down and Cuba is next.” (00:48)
• Vivian Salama, The Atlantic: Describes how US and Israeli forces have moved swiftly in Iran and Venezuela, with Trump seeking to “lock down American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere.”
• The administration’s ambitions: remove post-Castro leadership in Cuba and erase the vestiges of socialism from the Americas.

2. The Doctrine of American Supremacy in the Hemisphere

• Senator Lindsey Graham frames it as a “new national security strategy” where “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.” (04:09)
• Salama points out grandiose, even unrealistic elements: annexing Greenland, reclaiming the Panama Canal, adding Canada as the 51st state.
  • Graham (jokingly): “Canada like it. It would make a great state, and the people of Canada, Canada like it.” (04:50)
• These policies are meant to secure Trump’s legacy and reinforce US hegemony.

3. Why Cuba — and Why Now?

• Salama: The main thrust is that Cuba is the symbolic and strategic final domino for this campaign.
• Noel King (host): Asks if the post-Castro regime is really a threat or just a convenient target.
• Salama: US officials see the proximity (“just 90 miles from Key West”) and long-standing enmity as justifications.
• The crumbling of Cuba’s economy, loss of Venezuelan oil (after US intervention there), and existing sanctions have made the regime more vulnerable.

4. Venezuela’s Role in Sustaining Cuba

• Salama explains: Venezuela, since the Chavez-Castro era, exchanged subsidized oil for Cuban medical and military support.
• After Maduro’s ouster and US blockades, Cuba’s main economic lifeline has been severed (09:48).
• The implications: Cuba faces severe shortages, worsening poverty, and international isolation.

5. Regime Change: Plans and Uncertainties

• The US is publicly vague about whom it wants leading Cuba after regime change.
• Talks (somewhat clandestine) are underway with Raul Castro’s grandson and other factions (11:02).
  • Graham (quote): “We may very well end up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.” (11:40)
• There’s intentional silence about the “day after” — a concern that’s shared by many observers.

6. Trump’s Political Logic

• Supporters argue regime changes are quick “Band-Aid” solutions, hoping to campaign on foreign victories by summertime.
• Salama notes: Trump’s “MAGA coalition” is not universally on board — some see this as a betrayal of “America First” (13:00).
• But the gamble is for electoral gain: “Look at what Republicans have given you. We’ve given you victory overseas. America is safe, safer now, because we did this.” (13:40)

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Segment: A Cuban Exile’s Perspective

7. Joe Estuares: Why He Fled Cuba

• Joe shares harrowing tales of state persecution:
  • Kidnappings, repeated detentions, threats to take away his child.
  • “Family is the first homeland and we had to protect our kid.” (20:00)
• The atmosphere of fear and deprivation:
  • “89% of Cuban households live in extreme poverty. Seven out of ten Cubans cannot eat three meals a day because of lack of money or food shortages.” (21:33)

8. What Does Change Mean for Cubans?

• Joe welcomes the idea of real, not "cosmetic," change — meaning a shift to democracy, not just new leaders (22:33).
  • “The sovereignty of Cuba should reside in the people…. I want a republic. I want Cuba reinstalling in the orbit of the West.” (23:45)
• On whether it has to be Trump delivering this change:
  • “People want to get rid of the socialist system in the most significant changes… If it comes from Trump, if it comes from another political leader, it’s ok.” (25:20)

9. Mixed Feelings and Cautious Hope

• Joe laments that diplomatic overtures (e.g., Obama’s détente) yielded little for ordinary Cubans.
• While Trump’s policies are divisive, they have stoked genuine hope in some exile circles longing for family reunification and participation in free society.
  • “That’s why a lot people have hope, because... they really miss what they have lost in the island.” (27:31)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Senator Lindsey Graham:

  • “We're gonna blow the hell out of these people, but it ain't about money today.” (00:35)
  • “Iran is going down and Cuba is next.” (00:48)
  • “American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.” (04:09)
  • “Cuba is in its last moments of life as it was...” (12:05)

• Vivian Salama:

  • “President Trump is already eyeing his next target, which is Cuba.” (03:10)
  • “Cuba is next on the list.” (06:14)

• Joe Estuares:

  • “Family is the first homeland and we had to protect our kid... The system is terrible, the system is diabolical.” (20:00)
  • “I want Cuba reinstalling in the orbit of the West. I don't want these foreign ideologies like socialism...” (23:53)
  • “That’s why a lot of people have hope, because they really missed what they have lost in the island.” (27:31)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening news montage & Senator Graham’s declaration: 00:01 – 00:52
• Vivian Salama on US strategy & hemisphere supremacy: 02:18 – 06:49
• Why Cuba, why now?: 06:57 – 08:50
• Venezuela’s lifeline to Cuba & what’s changed: 08:50 – 10:47
• “Who’s next” in Cuba & US dealings with regime: 10:47 – 11:59
• Political logic and risks in US strategy: 12:16 – 14:30
• Joe Estuares’ testimony: repression, life in Cuba: 18:36 – 21:32
• Cuba’s poverty and deprivation: 21:33 – 22:20
• Hopes & skepticism about US-driven change: 22:33 – 25:20
• Exile community’s dreams for return: 27:08 – 28:43

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Tone

The episode is brisk, at times urgent, occasionally somber — especially as Joe Estuares recounts the pain of exile. There’s a blend of analysis, historical context, and raw emotion. The hosts and guests balance skepticism of Trump’s strategy with empathy for Cubans enduring hardship.

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Conclusion

The podcast offers a layered look at a pivotal moment: US ambitions for regime change in Cuba, mixing geopolitics, election considerations, and the lives of those exiled from the island. While official plans remain unclear, the sense of historic possibility — and peril — is palpable, with guests and hosts examining both the prospects and the human costs of such dramatic change.

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This summary captures the nuance, context, and human voices behind the headlines, offering clarity for those who haven’t heard the full conversation.

Transcript

[Noel King]

It's been a wild couple days for Iran. Developments the latest Ayatollah Khamenei's son will replace him as Supreme Leader. President Trump might reinstate the draft.

[Rhonda Miller Goodrich]

President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table.

[Noel King]

Then on Sunday, there was this unforgettable tweet from Meghan McCain.

[Vivian Salama]

I've known Lindsey Graham since I was a child. I'm imploring anyone who will listen in the Trump administration to stop sending this man out as a surrogate. He is scaring people.

[Noel King]

Okay, so Senator Graham was interviewed on Fox where he went ham on Iran.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

We're gonna blow the hell out of these people, but it ain't about money today.

[Joe Estuares]

It's about six Americans who died in

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

the defense of our country.

[Noel King]

Then at the end, Graham made a chilling geographical and geostrategic turn.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Iran is going down and Cuba is next.

[Noel King]

Is Cuba next? We're gonna ask on today, explained Senator More thank you very much.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

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[Noel King]

Estana esculchando a hoy Explicado. You're listening to today, explained Vivian Salama, staff writer, the Atlantic, reporting on wars and rumors of wars.

[Vivian Salama]

So as the bombs were flying in Iran, within hours of the military operations starting, we know that in the Situation Room at the White House and those gilded secure rooms of Mar a Lago, there were whispers of this grand plan that many in Washington and capitals around the world probably once thought was unthinkable. And that is the toppling of not one, not two, but three autocracies that have literally tormented generations of American presidents. And so the US And Israel teamed up and launched their military operations in Iran just weeks after President Trump ordered his lightning strike that put Venezuela's president in a New York City courtroom. And we know that President Trump is already eyeing his next target, which is Cuba.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

But for 50 years, I've been hearing, as a little boy, I'd be hearing about Cuba, you know, Cuba's a disaster.

[Noel King]

Cuba, Cuba. Do we know what the Trump administration plans to do in Cuba?

[Vivian Salama]

We don't know. I don't know if they know, to be honest with you. I think the end game is very apparent to them, which is that they want that post Castro regime that's now running Cuba to go away. And this is part, in part, part of the President's grander scheme to lock down American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Under our new national security strategy, American dominance in the Western Hemisphere will never be questioned again.

[Vivian Salama]

He's talked about this at great length in the last year, as have many within his administration. It was in his national security strategy.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

They now call it the Dunro document. I don't know.

[Vivian Salama]

It is, you know, at the root of so many of the policies that we've heard him talk about since he took office for a second time, annexing Greenland.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Now, what I'm asking for is a

[Vivian Salama]

piece of ice taking over the Panama Canal.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

My administration will be reclaiming the Panama

[Vivian Salama]

Canal, even making Canada the 51st state,

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

because they should be the 51st state, really. It would make a great state, and the people of Canada, Canada like it.

[Vivian Salama]

All of that rooted in this concept that the President has that American supremacy in the Western Hemisphere is imperative for its national security, but also for his legacy.

[Noel King]

Does the President really believe that the post Castro regime in Cuba poses a threat to American supremacy?

[Vivian Salama]

I think the President does believe that. You know, remember, Cuba is located just 90 miles from Key West. That has been a thorn on the side, not just of this president, but of generations of presidents, Democrats and Republicans alike.

[Joe Estuares]

It is clear that the forces of communism are not to be underestimated in Cuba or anywhere else in the world.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

What's happening in Cuba is not a failure of the Cuban people. It's a failure of Fidel Castro and of communism. Cuba see Castro? No. All the people of Cuba must be able to learn the truth about the regime in Havana. The isolation it has earned for itself through its contempt for basic human rights and international law, no matter what the dictator intends or plans. Cuba Serra Prontelibre

[Vivian Salama]

and President Trump now on a high from his successful ousting of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. His, you know, in part with Israel killing of the Ayatollah Khamenei and this ongoing effort to bring about an end to the Iranian regime. Although they still do not blatantly say that this is a regime change operation, but it seems clear that that's where it's heading. Advisors are telling me that he feels like he's on a roll, it's working. And so Cuba is next on the list.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Cuba's at the end of line. They're very much at the end of the line.

[Noel King]

When President Trump is asked about the timing, about why now, exactly what does he say? What does his administration say?

[Vivian Salama]

So there are various elements to this. Right. You know, you have the. The immigration element of it. The President believed that Nicolas Maduro's regime was supporting narco terrorism, and that was their justification for it. It's why they said that removing him was a law enforcement operation.

[DeleteMe Representative]

He was arrested on the ground in

[Vivian Salama]

Venezuela by FBI agents.

[DeleteMe Representative]

Brett is right.

[Vivian Salama]

And removed from the country because they believed that he is, at the end of the day, supporting the trafficking of illegal drugs into the United States. That was their justification. And the reason I'm starting to answer your question about Cuba with Venezuela is because that's been the key element here. Venezuela has been propping up the Cuban regime now for a few decades. This dates back to Hugo Chavez being in power in Venezuela and Fidel Castro still in power in Cuba. This was just at the end of the Cold War when the Iron curtain came down.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Mr. Gorbachev teared down this wall, and

[Vivian Salama]

Russia was trying to kind of lick its wounds and figure out its next steps. Of course, during the Cold War, the Soviet Union was a major supporter of Cuba.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Russians turned out in thousands to show the world, and America in particular, that Nikki loves Fidel. President Castro had the red carpet treatment all the to the Red Square.

[Vivian Salama]

When the Soviet Union collapsed, Cuba lost its biggest benefactor. Enter Venezuela. And Hugo Chavez, who was a socialist Cuban.

[Joe Estuares]

Venezuelan solidarity has been rooted in the

[Vivian Salama]

shared vision of a united Latin America

[Joe Estuares]

as envisioned by Simon Bolivar and Jose Marti. Donde sal la fojere bolivariana y los ambre Bolivariano.

[Vivian Salama]

Fidel Castro saw him as a protege and really groomed him to be able to have this sort of brotherly relationship where Cuba would send doctors and, you know, other support to Venezuela in exchange for oil.

[DeleteMe Representative]

Venezuela has been supplying for years subsidized

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

crude oil to Cuba.

[DeleteMe Representative]

And in return, Cuba sends back health workers and military and intelligence.

[Joe Estuares]

More than 60,000 Venezuelans have traveled to

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Cuba free of charge for medical care. And there are now more than a

[Joe Estuares]

thousand clinics in Venezuela staffed mainly by Cuban doctors.

[Vivian Salama]

Flash forward to 2026. Nicolas Maduro is toppled. That is, Nicolas Maduro was Chavez's successor. The US also launched intense operations to try to establish a blockade in the Caribbean. Any Venezuelan oil that was trying to get out illegally, I emphasize illegally, to Cuba or anywhere else would be seized. And they started doing that quite intensely, maybe dating back to October, November, before Maduro was officially overthrown. And so that lifeline that Cuba was getting from Venezuela has now been virtually eliminated on top of the fact that their economy has been crumbling for many years now, in part because of crippling sanctions that the US has imposed on it, in part because Covid really did a number on their economy and other factors as well. But that's been key.

[Noel King]

From where we sit in early March, we know that both Venezuela and Iran share have shared a very big question after the US Gets involved, which is who takes over? Who is set to take over in Cuba? Who does the US Want in charge?

[Vivian Salama]

Well, this is the big question, right? And the US does not outwardly talk about any particular individuals. We know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been talking to the former president's grandson, Raul Castro's grandson, trying to see if they could find some sort of a solution. There have been sort of back channel talks between the US and the Cuban regime to see if a deal could be struck where they could maybe peacefully and quietly, you know, hit the road. President Trump joked about a friendly takeover a few weeks ago very well end

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

up having a friendly takeover of Cuba.

[Vivian Salama]

And so, you know, they've sort of alluded to the fact that the US Would kind of go in there and do some sort of regime change operation. But what they haven't talked about, and it's rather intentional, is what comes after the post Castro regime.

[Noel King]

Let me ask you lastly, President Trump is talking like this is inevitable.

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

Cuba is in its last moments of life as it was. It'll have a great new life, but it's in its last moments of life the way it is.

[Noel King]

What do you think? Is this inevitable?

[Vivian Salama]

Reading the tea leaves, it certainly feels like this could be inevitable. Again, you know, to one of your first questions, why now? Because they believe the circumstances are ripe for regime change in Cuba. They see between Venezuela, between the momentum that the US has had that this is. This is gonna work. If they do it now, the time to strike is now. And I also wanna emphasize that President Trump's coalition, his MAGA coalition, has not been that open to some of this military adventurism. You know, a lot of them pointing to the fact that it goes against America first, it betrays America first, that President Trump is fixated on overseas conflicts and not paying enough attention to the economy and other issues that are weighing heavily on the minds of Americans. And folks I speak to in the White House say that, yes, they are concerned that the President's focus on some of these overseas operations could ultimately come back to haunt Republicans, certainly, who are on the ticket this November. But at the end of the day, I think there is a sense, especially among those who are advocating for these military operations, that it's like ripping off a Band Aid. You get them done quickly. One, two, three, punch. And that way, come summertime, the President can go out there when he's on the trail campaigning for some of these people on the ballot to say, look at what Republicans have given you. We've given you victory overseas. America is safe, safer now, because we did this. And the memory of those military operations, the strain that they brought, will be behind them at that point. And they can focus on domestic issues. Whether or not that works out remains to be seen, but that is definitely the objective that they're. They're looking to achieve.

[Noel King]

That was the Atlantic's Vivian Salama. Coming up next, a Cuban journalist who fled the country a few years back tells me why he welcomes Trump.

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[Joe Estuares]

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[Vivian Salama]

This is Today Explained.

[Joe Estuares]

My name is Joe Estuares and I was a journalist in Cuba.

[Noel King]

You left in the summer of 2022. Why did you leave Cuba?

[Joe Estuares]

Well, I leave Cuba basically because of the persecution that the regime imposed on journalists, independent activists, people who want freedom for the island and change. And I was one of those. I was doing reporting, investigative reporting on themes like tort, political prisoners, persecution of religious minorities. In that case, that put a target over me. And the regime harassed me in different ways. I was kidnapped once by the political police. I was detained several times. My family was harassed. My mother, my wife also, who is a journalist, also was a journalist in Cuba. So the breakpoint for us was when the regime says, you are raising a child, we had a baby in that moment going to become counter revolutionary, because you are a counter revolutionary. So we're going to take your kid from you, away from you. And that was our breaking point. My wife and I, we talked about that because we think family is the first homeland and we had to protect our kid. I think we protect. We try to protect him as much as we can. And for instance, there was a moment when the political police kidnapped me in the middle of the street. I was walking in the neighborhood and trying to get some money from an atm. And the political police just came and they say, you have to come with us. And they basically were trying to threaten me because of my investigative reporting on political prisoners, torture, that kind of stuff. And my wife was waiting for me at home with lunch. She was waiting for me and she just didn't saw me come back, Came back. So how we deal with that? And our kid was a baby. But he kind of asks, where's dad? It would try to deal in a very, you know, it was tough, it was tough. And I was freed like two hours later. But I don't want to share with him in front of him what was happening, because I don't want him to hate his country, the country where he was born. I don't want hate to. I can separate the country, which is wonderful, is a geographical paradise with amazing story. But the government is so terrible. The system is terrible, the system is diabolical. So I don't want him to be traumatized and thinking, okay, this country, I hate this piece of land because what they did to my, my dad or my mom, or how my mom was suffering.

[Noel King]

What is it like to live in Cuba?

[Joe Estuares]

89% of Cuban households live in extreme poverty. Can you imagine? 7 out of 10 Cubans cannot eat 3 meals a day because of lack of money or food shortages. The other thing is when you get some food, the blackouts are so long that you can lost that food in your fridge, it can rot. And it's super sad because the lines to get food lines that I myself did before I arrived here to the US could be like 12 hours to get a piece of chicken. That is not enough to feed your family. So the despair is tangible, and Cuba is big. In Cuba, you can feel the despair.

[Noel King]

All right, so it is in the context of all of this that President Trump says he wants regime change in Cuba. He is not being subtle about it. He's actually being quite loud about it. What do you think about this coming from Trump?

[Joe Estuares]

Well, I think Cuba needs a change, a big change and not a cosmetic change. Cuba needs a system change. The centralized system in Cuba for the Communist Party has been destroying not only the economy, but the life of thousands of families. There are separations. My family and I, we were very lucky that we can arrive to the US Together, but we have a lot of friends and family members that are being separated because of migration, because of exile. What you feel in Cuba now, it's hope. People are also with some mix of anxiety because people don't know what's going to happen. But people think there is hope because the policies that President Trump, and especially because Marco Rubio is in the team, and Marco Rubio, because of his Cuban heritage, he really understand, I think, what's happening in the area, what's happening in the Caribbean area, what's happening in Latin America.

[Noel King]

What does a change look like? You said you want a change, but what do you mean specifically?

[Joe Estuares]

Well, I think the sovereignty of Cuba should reside in the people.

[Noel King]

You want elections?

[Joe Estuares]

Of course. And I want pluripartitism and I want a republic. I want Cuba reinstalling in the orbit of the West. I don't want these foreign ideologies like socialism, which is a foreign ideology from Cuba, obviously, but it's a foreign ideology that has destroyed the economy and the life of millions of people.

[Noel King]

American presidents have tried to find ways of dealing with Cuba for generations now. Right. President Obama restored diplomatic ties with Cuba. Raul Castro, as a result, started liberalizing the economy. President Trump is distinct, though, because in both terms, he has just been a lot more aggressive. Would you prefer that it was not Donald Trump trying to make these changes in Cuba, or is it this. Is this a case of. It really could only be Donald Trump trying to make these changes?

[Joe Estuares]

That's a. That's a good question, Noel. I lived in Cuba during the Obama era, and I think a lot of people were. Have. Have hope, also genuine hope of different approach. Not because they see Obama or Trump as a special figure or whatever, because people want to get rid of the socialist system in the most significant changes

[Senator Lindsey Graham]

in our policy in more than 50 years. We will end an outdated approach that for decades has failed to advance our interests, and instead we will begin to normalize relations between our two countries.

[Joe Estuares]

That's why a lot of people, so they say, you know, if you're gonna do a deal with them. In the case of Obama, we will see, we will give you some grace to see what happens in the island. The thing is that sadly, during the Obama era, we didn't saw the changes, the big changes that people need, the release of political prisoners. We didn't saw liberalization of the political landscape, pluripartitism, we didn't saw that. So the approach of Trump's approach is more connected, I would say, with the Republican aisle of the big Cuban American lobby that exists in Washington, D.C. since decades ago. And I think their approach has been proven more correct during the, during the years and now is the case also. And I think that it could be controversial. I think Trump is controversial and he doesn't, he doesn't hide that. I think it's a fisher, not a bug, as you say Americans feature, not a bug. Yeah, but I think the approach has been given a lot of hope to Cubans. And Cubans are willing to give Trump some grace, as they did with Obama, some Cubans did with Obama. And what I think is Cubans are really willing to see a change. If it comes from Trump, if it comes from another political leader, it's okay.

[Noel King]

So let's say President Trump goes in and he does force regime change in Cuba. What would that mean for you and your family?

[Joe Estuares]

Well, I would love to go back to the island. I would love to reunite with my grandfather, who is 96 years old. I would love for him to see my son that is now first year generation Cuban American in exile, that my son Lucas, who was born like a week ago. I would love my mother to meet his grandson and to walk together, you know, again, for the places that mean so much for me and my wife in Havana and in Kamawe, another city in the oriental part of the island. I think a lot of Cubans are thinking on that. I've been talking with my friends, like, can you imagine if we can go to our church again together, man? Can you imagine that we can go to, I don't know, to the places, to those parks that we just talk hours, for hours. Can you imagine? It would be so, so great. That's why a lot of people have hope, because they really missed what they have lost in the island in some cases because of political reasons, because you are pushed. Like in my case and I know in other cases too, you are pushed away because of your ideas. Not because you're a criminal, but because of your ideas.

[Noel King]

Yoe suarez is a journalist. He left cuba in 2022. He lives in the us now. Dustin de soto produced today's show. Amina elsadi edited andrea lopez crusado checked the facts and david tadashore and patrick boyd are our engineers. I'm noel king. It's today explained.

[Shopify Representative]

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[Rhonda Miller Goodrich]

This is advertiser content brought to you by Stonyfield Organic. Our cows, them going out to pasture, they love it. They're so excited to go out every day. They wait right at the door. In fact we milk them and we just open up the laneway and let them just go right out to pasture. I'm Rhonda Miller Goodrich and I'm a dairy farmer in Cabot, Vermont. Our farm is Molly Brook Farm. We're an organic dairy farm and we are are a supplier to Stonyfield. Molly Brook Farm has been in my husband's family since 1835. We started our organic transition in 2015. We had 53 acres of corn ground and of course we had to use herbicides and pesticides and the soil was dead really for all intents purposes. We stopped growing corn and stopped using herbicides and pesticides and we seeded that down to perennial grasses. After that we begin to see biodiversity in that soil again. To be organic certified, our cows need to be in pasture at least 120 days. I think the organic practices really benefit our animals. You know, having good feed, good water, a nice light area, that's what's important to us and that's what's important to Stonyfield. Visit stonyfield.com to find Stonyfield Organic Yogurt near you.