
China has spent years preparing for this trade war — and for a world no longer dominated by the US.
Loading summary
Bill Bishop
We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture. That is not a recipe for economic prosperity.
Noel King
Vice President J.D. vance defending the Trump administration's tariffs on China hit China squarely below the belt and China hit back with memes. Cue music. Americans on assembly lines at sewing machines in fields, eating chips, drinking Coke, looking ill prepared for factory work, to put it politely, which the memes are not. China's argument since this trade war began is that America cannot win it. China is tougher, more resilient and better prepared. On Today explained as this trade war escalates, we ask, what if that's true?
Claire White
With HubSpot's built in AI, you can get more done than ever before. Breeze agents help you do things in seconds that used to take hours and Copilot keeps you two steps ahead, giving you the right insights at the right time. Get started today@HubSpot.com AI at the home Depot. Spring Black Friday is here and we've got 14 days of deals to transform your space. So what are you working on? How about a quick and stylish patio furniture update? And what's outdoor dining without a shiny new grill? Find a wide selection of grills under $300 like the next grill four burner for only $229 at the home Depot. Then add a little ambiance with string lights. Shop 14 days of deals during spring Black Friday, now through April 16 at the home Depot.
Noel King
You're listening to TODAY explained. First came the Liberation Day tariffs and nine days of chaos. Markets swings. Howard Lutnick trying to explain stuff, maybe even to himself, and frantic attempts to calm things down by pausing the biggest tariffs on most countries, but not on China. Dmitry Sevastopoulo, the US China correspondent for the Financial Times, picks it up. As the trade war roared into last.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Weekend, on Friday night, the Customs and Border Protection Bureau put out a memo late at night that nobody seemed to see in Washington. But it was floating around in China on Saturday morning and Saturday afternoon, which said that cell phones, smartphones, laptops, computers, certain other kind of consumer electronic devices, and a whole range of goods which are heavily imported from China would be exempt from the tariffs. So the whole world said, okay, fantastic. Donald Trump is backing off. He's seen sense on this. Americans are not going to see massive price rises in their I or whatever other smartphone they use. But then on Sunday, we had more confusion when Howard Ludnick, the commerce secretary, came out on television and said, no, no, no, no, no, we're not taking tariffs off these goods.
Claire White
Remember Those products are going to be.
Bill Bishop
Part of the semiconductor sectoral tariffs which are coming.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
These different messages have created huge confusion as to what exactly the Trump administration is doing and why the rollout of the is so chaotic, given that they've had several months to plan how they were going to do this.
Noel King
Over the weekend, China actually made a move to respond to the tariffs and said it would stop exporting critical minerals. Can you tell us a bit about China's response?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Yes. I mean, China has, as the US Does, China has a range of tools that it can employ in a trade war with the US Kind of the simplest retaliatory move it could take is to put countervailing tariffs on U.S. exports, which it has done. But one of the areas where it essentially has a stranglehold on the global market is in different kinds of critical minerals, rare earths. These are metals and minerals which are used for everything from batteries for electric cars to components of weapons and a whole array of products in between. And China essentially is very, very dominant in the processing of these minerals, which means that if China decided to cut off supply to countries or to the world, it would have a massive impact because the US and its Western allies, Japan, South Korea and a whole range of countries at the moment are still reliant on China for processing these critical rare earths and critical minerals.
Noel King
President Trump has backed off on tariffs with most of the countries that he initially levied them on, but he has largely kept them, even escalated them on China. Why is that?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Well, I think there's a couple of things that are going on. The first thing is when he basically launched an economic trade war against the whole world initially, you know, the equity market. So stocks and shares that people have in their portfolios fell and people felt that one in their 401ks. Scott, the Treasury Secretary went out on television and said, listen, it's not such a big deal because most Americans don't have everything in the market. Most Americans in a 401k have what's called a 6040 account. Americans generally hold 60% of their 401k in stocks and 40% in bonds. And overall, it's not such a big hit. Well then all of a sudden the bond market came under attack and bond prices started falling.
Noel King
Typically, you would think investors might be seeking haven in an asset like US Treasuries. And instead we just saw the 10 year treasury yield have the biggest weekly gain, as in price of bond going down since 2001. What is the.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
I was watching the bond market. The bond market is Very tricky. I was watching it. But if you look, and I think there was panic in the Trump administration that this was really going to hit the average American. Their 401ks were going to be hit. And then in several weeks or months time, the prices of goods that are imported from overseas are going to go up. So you're going to have your, your pension go down and your month to month costs go up. So I think that was the first thing that happened. The second thing that happened was there was a realization that even if 130 countries have come to Donald Trump and said we want to negotiate, which is the number the White House is putting out at the moment, the US Government doesn't have enough manpower across the different agencies that deal with trade to do trade negotiations with 130 countries. It's just not feasible.
Noel King
Why isn't China backing down?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
I think for several reasons. One is China is a much more relatively powerful country compared to the US than it was in 2017 when Donald Trump first entered the White House. I think also the Chinese leadership feels that they have more ability to tolerate pain in their economy, and that's notwithstanding the fact that they are having economic headwinds right now. They have their own problems. So it's not as if they have a lot of leeway, but I think they feel like they can tolerate the pain for now and that they can tolerate the pain for longer than the US Can. One of the reasons, which is looking at the way the Trump administration very quickly pivoted last week when the bond market started to fall, I think that signaled to the Chinese that the bond market is a vulnerability that the US has and that when bond prices fall, that the US Is going to backtrack on some of its policies. So I think that's given China more confidence as well. Now, whether all those things turn out to be accurate or not, we don't know. But I think that's the thinking in Beijing right now.
Noel King
If the tariffs do stay in place, what is that going to mean for the American economy and what's it going to mean for American consumers?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Well, for American consumers, broadly, it's going to mean, you know, if you go to Target or Walmart or you know, wherever you shop to buy a whole range of products, you know, a toaster, you know, let's say you pay 30 bucks, 40 bucks for a kind of a mid range toaster right now, you're going to find all of a sudden that toaster is 50 bucks, 60 bucks. And you know, one of the biggest impacts in the long run, which will also be felt by consumers in the way that it was felt during the pandemic, is that this is going to have a massive impact on global supply chains. One, because, you know, companies are going to struggle to know what they can afford to import from different parts of the supply chain. And second of all, some companies are going to stop investing in certain parts of the world where they have supply chains because they don't want to pay the import costs, the tariffs. And so you're going to find that the supply chains around the world, which are massively complex, are going to become even more complex and brittle. And you will see all of a sudden that something you've ordered on Amazon that you were told was going to arrive in two weeks time, you'll get one of those notifications saying, been delayed. We'll let you know when it's ready to be shipp. So I think that's not going to happen immediately, but after a few weeks of all of these tariffs being in place, you're going to start to see signs of that. And it will build over time, unless the Trump administration starts to dial back more of these tariffs, particularly on China.
Noel King
What about the things that China imports from the United States? So the US Is a service economy. We hear that again and again. What we send to China is not toasters and sneakers, it's financial services, it's tourism, it's streaming subscriptions. Could, could China say we don't want those things from the US Anymore?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
They could. And I think actually what's been happening in China in recent years is that China over time has been trying to reduce its reliance on American services, financial services, consulting services and things like that. So that trend is already there. You know, Xi Jinping, as tough a stance as he intends to take on the Trump administration, he still wants to woo foreign companies to China because having foreign companies in China, whether they're American or Japanese or other countries, it sends a signal of confidence in the Chinese economy that this is a good place to do business. And so the Chinese are having to weigh that up as well. But in all of these cases, there's going to be a balancing act. They're going to take measures which, like I said, will to a certain extent hurt themselves. But they believe in the long run is the best approach to push back against Donald Trump.
Noel King
Dimitri, how do you think this is going to end?
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Right now, I think there's no light at the end of the tunnel. It's very difficult to tell how long the tunnel is. At the moment. You have a US President who's basically saying, you know, Xi Jinping picks up the phone and calls me, I'm happy to talk. The White House has made clear that essentially Trump wants to talk to Xi Jinping. He wants to start a negotiation from the top. The Chinese system generally works the other way. You know, any components of some kind of a deal are worked out by officials in the system and then it percolates up and eventually gets to Xi Jinping who decides if that's what he wants to do. But the Chinese are not going to agree to some kind of a summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping when nothing is decided. It's very volatile. They saw how President Zelensky of Ukraine, you know, they saw the fiasco in the White House when he visited, you know, a month or two ago, and they're not willing to take a risk that Xi Jinping is subject to the same treatment. So I think the Chinese are basically dug in. There are. There are no serious talks between the US And China on solving this trade issue right now. And there are no talks about a phone call between the presidents and no talks about a summit. There have been lots of stuff in the media about possible summits in April or the summer. In my opinion, they are all a word that I'm not allowed to say on air. They're not going to happen unless something dramatic changes. So I think we are. Right now, we're stuck between a rock and a hard place, and average American and the average Chinese is going to hurt as a result of this.
Noel King
Dimitri Sevastopoulo is the US China correspondent for the Financial Times. Coming up, why China is so confident it can win a trade war.
Unknown
Support for Today explained comes from Quince. Believe it or not, the warm weather is finally coming. I was just outside, the sun was bathing me and it felt foreign and new and familiar all at once. Quints would like to be a part of that experience. They say that this spring and summer, you can treat yourself to high quality travel essentials at affordable prices. And Claire White, who works here at Vox, is doing so.
The Italian leather pouch travel set from Quince has been a huge upgrade in my travel toiletry game. I've got the smaller one in my work bag all the time with different things that I might need throughout the day. And the larger pouch has been great to take on vacations because of how much it fits. The leather is beautiful and I know that they'll be a staple in my travel wardrobe for years.
For your next trip, you can treat yourself to the luxe upgrades you deserve from quints, go to quince.com explain for 365 day returns plus free shipping on your order. That's Q U I n c e.com explained to get free shipping and 365 day returns, Quince.com explained.
Noel King
Support for today Explained comes from Select Quote do you have life insurance or have you been avoiding it because you don't want to be flooded with questions about premiums and payments and just exactly what is covered? This process seems confusing to a lot of people. Select Quote wants to change that and make it a little bit easier so you can finally just get it done. According to Select Quote data, Select Quote has helped over 2 million customers find over $700 billion in coverage since 1985. They can help you find a term life policy in as little as 15 minutes. And they say you don't need to worry about getting coverage with a pre existing health condition. Because Select Quote partners with carriers that provide policies for a variety of health conditions. Or if you don't have any major health issues, you can probably get same day coverage. No medical exam required. According to Selectquote you can get the right term life insurance for you for less@SelectQuote.com explained. You can go to SelectQuote.com explained today to get started. What's that? That's SelectQuote.com explained.
Unknown
For as long as I can remember, bread has given me hiccups.
Noel King
I always get the hiccups when I eat baby carrots. Sometimes when I am washing my left.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Ear, just my left ear, I hiccup.
Unknown
And my tried and true hiccup cure.
Noel King
Is pour a glass of water, light a match, put the match out in the water, drink the water, throw away.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
The match, put your elbows out, point two fingers together and sort of stare at the point between the fingers. It doesn't work if you bring your elbows down, but it works.
Unknown
Just eat a spoonful of peanut butter.
Noel King
Think of a green rabbit.
Claire White
I taught myself to burp on commands.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Like excuse me and I discovered that.
Claire White
When I make myself burp it stops my hiccups. Unexplainable is taking on hiccups. What causes them and is there any kind of scientific cure? Follow Unexplainable for new episodes every Wednesday.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
You're listening to Today Explained.
Bill Bishop
Hi, I'm Bill Bishop. I write a newsletter called Cynicism S I N O C I S M whose goal is to help people get smarter about China.
Noel King
For people who don't speak or read Mandarin, one of the most interesting things to watch Right now is the Chinese embassy in the US On Twitter, it has been retweeting Pew Research data saying that Americans know the tariffs will be bad for them. It's been tweeting salty emojis kind of aimed at at America's story about tariffs. It's been tweeting beautiful sunsets. What is the story that China is telling about itself right now?
Bill Bishop
The story is one that America is effectively the great disruptor. America is blowing up the global trading system. America is blowing up the global order for hegemonic and selfish reasons. And also that China will not be cowed. They don't want to have a trade war. They say there are no winners in a trade war. But if America wants to fight, we will fight to the end, I think is one of the phrases that they use. They're trying to express this resolve. So you had, I think, couple days ago, the Ministry of Foreign affairs, one of their accounts, tweeted this video of a clip from a famous speech Mao Zedong gave in 1953 during the Korean War, basically talking about the China's resolve and how they will never give in. And so that is the messaging for a global audience, but then also domestically inside China, it's very much the, you know, we're not going to give in. You know, we're going to work through this. We're fine. Our economy is resilient. Our economy is massive. We can handle this. America is bad. America is the problem. And then a fair amount of mocking of America and, you know, the idea that, for example, America is going to bring back shoe factories. I think there have been some videos going around.
Noel King
The memes.
Bill Bishop
Yeah, the memes of, you know, Big Fatima, Americans making shoes.
Noel King
Both funny and a little offensive. But honestly, it kind of hits America where it hurts. I think there's a reason that those memes have gone viral.
Bill Bishop
Yes. And I mean, if, frankly, if we can limit this to a meme war, that would be great.
Noel King
All right, so China is giving confidence right now. Why is that? Is China really prepared for a big trade war?
Bill Bishop
So China does not want this trade war. It will cause some real problems in their economy. It will cause some real dislocations. They already are struggling with a pretty significant economic downturn over the last several years, triggered by, among other things, an attempt at a managed popping of a real estate bubble that has at times gotten a little bit out of control.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
On the edge of the city of Changchun, row after row of apartment buildings largely empty or unfinished. Its developer, Evergrande, collapsed with more than 200 billion pounds of debt. China's housing oversupply problem is now so bad, it's estimated there are 60 million vacant homes.
Bill Bishop
But, you know, since the first trade war, since the first Trump administration, when that trade war started, they have worked extremely hard to build out capacities and build up to diversify into other markets. They haven't been totally successful, but they've diversified a lot, reduced some reliance on the US Market. And so I think they do feel like they are in a better position to handle this really significant escalation in the trade war than they were, say, seven, six years ago. In China, there's the economic response. They will probably push out some stimulus packages. They will probably find ways to tax credits or subsidies to exporters who are harmed. But China has an entirely separate system around social stability, where they've really rebuilt from the grassroots level up a system to be able to use both soft and hard coercive power to effectively keep people, even if they're unhappy or even if they're, you know, they want to go complain or they want to go protest. The costs are extremely high and they have systems at every level to mitigate or prevent those problems from bubbling up.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
China is the all seeing and listening state today.
Claire White
The average Chinese citizen spends nearly every.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Waking moment under the watchful eye of the state.
Bill Bishop
The world's second largest economy had a.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Tough year in 2023. Now, one of Beijing's answers to the.
Bill Bishop
Challenge, ban and erase criticism of it. You got the nationalist patriotic element, and then you've got this entire system of social stability, social governance that I think will allow the government in Beijing to absorb more pain and higher cost than I think some people assume.
Noel King
So that's the message inside China. The story that China is telling other countries, not the United States, is you can't count on America anymore. They are messy, they're dramatic, they're destabilizing the world economy. Instead, you should count on us. Are other countries buying that message?
Bill Bishop
Do you think so? This is a, this is a great question. And you know, China has trade surpluses, large trade surpluses with most of the major important economies or economic blocks in the world. And so most countries don't want to have to pick between the US And China. Where we are now is, I think, the development of this trade war. Effectively. The Trump administration, I think, is forcing countries to choose. Many countries, many developed economies especially, have not been happy with China and the way it trades and some of its policies. For example, the EU Chamber of Commerce every year puts out in China every year puts out a report on all the things they would like the Chinese government, government to do, change policies, to make the markets, to increase market access, to make the markets fair for EU companies. And it's hundreds or more than 1,000 a year, and the Chinese just sort of file it away and nothing ever happens. And so there is massive frustration in, for example, the EU and certain capitals about Chinese trade practices. But they've been very reticent to hit back hard because they're also quite dependent, some of their big companies are quite dependent on the Chinese market. And so now we're in a forcing moment, a forcing event from the Trump administration. This has put some of these big economies and frankly many countries big and small in a real bind.
Dimitri Sevastopoulo
Chinese President Xi Jinping has arrived in Vietnam as he begins a tour of Southeast Asia. President Xi Jinping on Friday urged the EU to join China in defending globalization and opposing unilateral acts of bullying.
Noel King
In many ways, it seems what's at stake here is which one of these giant powers is going to become the economy of the future. And again, I'm relying on the Chinese embassy and US Twitter feed, but there are things on that feed that I will tell you, blow my mind. There are, there are videos of bridges like you wouldn't believe. I mean, the bridge, it goes over a mountain range is incredible. There's one of a, like a Runway show, like a fashion show where the models are robots. So some of this stuff honestly looks like it comes from the next century. I don't see that in the U.S. can you talk a bit about the ways in which China is trying to position itself as truly the economy of the future?
Bill Bishop
So about a decade ago, China launched a program called Made in China 2025, where they laid out 10 broad industries, future industries, where they wanted to dominate all high tech, including EVs, electric vehicles, batteries. And now we're 10 years on and they've been actually quite successful. This is an example of a really quite successful industrial planning. So for example, when you look at EVs and batteries, China's a global leader, you talked about these. So what you're seeing on these various official and semi official tweets and YouTube, that's very much part of a showing the world. Basically, we are the future, right? We have robots that can dance. So every year at the Lunar New Year holiday, the cctv, the main TV network in China, has what's called the Spring Festival Gala and hundreds of millions of people watch it. It's a several hour show on Lunar New Year's. Eve. And this year, one of the shows was a routine of dancing robots, which looked amazing. They were all individually controlled. There are people like, there's a lot of really good stuff. The Chinese are good at a lot of these things. You also have to remember that what you're seeing on Twitter does have a purpose.
Noel King
It's working. It's working on me.
Bill Bishop
No, it is working.
Noel King
The robot dog. I'm about to give up my real dog. I, I mean, it's incredible.
Bill Bishop
Bill, keep your real dog.
Noel King
Let's say, Bill, that China doesn't blink and Donald Trump doesn't blink either. And the relationship between the US And China really does unravel. What does the world look like in six months, a year, 18 months?
Bill Bishop
So then I think we are in a much more dangerous world because the foundation, the linchpin of the US China relationship is trade. There are all sorts of other issues that have worsened over the years, from Taiwan to other territorial issues in the South China Sea to hacking. You get a long list that I don't need to get into. Trade has really kept the relationship from, from really kind of going off the rails. And where we are now with these tariff rates, again, it is taking a sledgehammer to that foundation of the relationship. And as that foundation shatters, the relationship will shift in, I think, very unpredictable and potentially very dangerous ways.
Noel King
Bill Bishop, the substack is cynicism, but not spelled like that. You can find a link in our show. Notes, notes. Today's episode was produced by Miles Bryan, edited by Jolie Myers, fact checked by Laura Bullard and Amanda Llewellyn, engineered by Patrick Boyd and Andrea, Kristen's daughter. And I'm Noel King. It's today.
Today, Explained: Episode Summary – “It’s China’s Turn”
Released on April 14, 2025 | Hosted by Sean Rameswaram and Noel King | Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network
In the episode titled “It’s China’s Turn,” hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King delve into the intensifying trade conflict between the United States and China. They explore the recent developments, strategic moves by both nations, and the broader implications for the global economy.
The episode opens with a critical perspective on the US's economic dependencies on China. Bill Bishop states at [00:00] that “We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture. That is not a recipe for economic prosperity,” highlighting the unsustainable nature of the trade imbalance.
Noel King introduces Vice President J.D. Vance’s defense of the Trump administration's tariffs on China, noting how China has responded sharply with mocking memes aimed at undermining American confidence ([00:09]). This marks a significant escalation in the trade war, moving beyond policy debates to public perception battles.
Dmitri Sevastopoulo, the US-China correspondent for the Financial Times, provides an in-depth analysis of the chaotic tariff rollout. He explains at [02:15] the conflicting messages released by the US Customs and Border Protection Bureau and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, which have led to widespread confusion:
“These different messages have created huge confusion as to what exactly the Trump administration is doing and why the rollout of the tariffs is so chaotic” ([03:17]).
This policy ambiguity has undermined investor confidence, leading to significant market instability, including unprecedented drops in bond prices and rising treasury yields ([05:00]-[05:57]).
China has not remained passive. As detailed by Sevastopoulo at [03:32], China has retaliated by potentially halting the export of critical minerals and rare earths, crucial for industries like electric vehicles and weaponry:
“China essentially is very, very dominant in the processing of these minerals, which means that if China decided to cut off supply... it would have a massive impact” ([04:17]).
Bill Bishop further explains China's robust internal mechanisms to sustain economic pressure, including stimulus packages and subsidies for exporters ([19:07]-[21:34]). Additionally, China’s extensive social governance systems ensure domestic stability despite economic challenges ([21:19]-[21:34]).
The continuation and escalation of tariffs have direct repercussions for American consumers and the broader economy. Sevastopoulo outlines at [08:06] how tariffs will lead to increased prices for everyday goods, disruptions in global supply chains, and delays in product deliveries:
“You’re going to find all of a sudden that toaster is 50 bucks, 60 bucks... supply chains... will become even more complex and brittle” ([08:06]-[09:40]).
This scenario echoes the economic challenges experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, with prolonged effects on consumer prices and supply chain reliability.
China's assertive stance is rooted in its enhanced economic resilience and strategic diversification over the past decade. Bill Bishop discusses China’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, which has positioned China as a leader in high-tech industries, including electric vehicles and robotics ([19:33]-[25:46]).
Moreover, China’s diplomatic efforts aim to position itself as the champion of globalization against what it portrays as the US’s disruptive trade policies. Sevastopoulo highlights President Xi Jinping’s recent visit to Southeast Asia, where he urged the EU to join China in defending globalization ([23:03]-[23:45]). Bill Bishop adds that China’s global messaging emphasizes its economic strength and resilience:
“China is trying to express this resolve... 'We are the future... America is blowing up the global trading system.'” ([17:21]-[22:12]).
When asked about the potential resolution of this trade war, Sevastopoulo provides a bleak outlook at [10:58]. He suggests that without significant shifts in policy or diplomacy, the trade conflict could deteriorate further, risking a more dangerous and unpredictable global economic environment:
“We are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and average American and the average Chinese is going to hurt as a result” ([10:58]-[12:43]).
Bill Bishop echoes this sentiment, describing a scenario where the foundational trade relationships shatter, leading to broader geopolitical tensions ([26:11]-[27:03]).
The episode concludes by emphasizing the precarious nature of US-China relations amid the ongoing trade war. With both nations seemingly unwilling to back down, the global economy faces significant uncertainty. The interplay between policy decisions, economic strategies, and public sentiment will continue to shape the trajectory of this conflict.
Notable Quotes:
Bill Bishop ([00:00]):
“We borrow money from Chinese peasants to buy the things those Chinese peasants manufacture. That is not a recipe for economic prosperity.”
Dmitri Sevastopoulo ([03:32]):
“China essentially is very, very dominant in the processing of these minerals, which means that if China decided to cut off supply... it would have a massive impact.”
Bill Bishop ([21:34]):
“The world's second largest economy had a... tough year in 2023... they have this entire system of social stability... to absorb more pain and higher cost than I think some people assume.”
Dmitri Sevastopoulo ([10:58]):
“I think we are in a much more dangerous world... the average American and the average Chinese is going to hurt as a result of this.”
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the critical discussions and analyses presented in the “It’s China’s Turn” episode of Today, Explained, providing listeners with a nuanced understanding of the complexities and stakes involved in the US-China trade war.