
The US war in Iran is reminding people, uncomfortably, of the US war in Iraq — a conflict that raged on for years after leaders declared victory.
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Dexter Filkins
There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns. That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns.
George W. Bush
The ones we don't know, we don't know.
Noah Illinsky
During the war in Iraq, America's leaders sometimes sounded uniquely stupid.
Dexter Filkins
I'm confident that our troops will be successful and I think it'll go relatively quickly. But you can't count on that weeks rather than months.
Noah Illinsky
It was eight years. It's tempting when he talks about Iran to see that kind of stupidity and shortsightedness in President Trump. But what he threatened today is something else. A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. Trump wrote on truth. Social people have been comparing Trump's war in Iran to the war in Iraq. Is that legit today? On Today Explained Fooled me once.
George W. Bush
Shame on. Shame on you. It fooled me. We can't get fooled again.
Dexter Filkins
Where does President Trump's speech leave us with regard to where the war is headed? And it really was to me, the story of the commander in chief who weeks into this war is deeply uncertain about how it ends. I'm John Finer, co host of the Long Game podcast.
Jake Sullivan
This week, Jake Sullivan and I break
Dexter Filkins
down the president's speech and discuss what it's like to negotiate with the Iranians. We will also debate whether Iran should accept a deal. The episode is out now. Search and follow the Long Game wherever
George W. Bush
you get your podcasts.
Jake Sullivan
This is TODAY Explained.
Dexter Filkins
My name's Dexter Filkins and I'm a writer for the New Yorker magazine.
Noah Illinsky
Dexter was based in Iraq from 2003 to 2006 and wrote the aptly named and award winning book the Forever War. You covered the war in Iraq extensively in starting in 2003. We are at a moment in history where some smart people who remember Iraq well are saying that the war in Iran is making them feel like a kind of deja vu. What do you think? Is any of this familiar to you?
Dexter Filkins
Well, what I would say from the top is that war by its nature is unpredictable and this war is still going on. And unlike the Iraq war, and it will undoubtedly go in a bunch of different ways that nobody predicted. But when the war started, the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil flows, was open and it's not open now. And so we can tally up all the great accomplishments of the American military. But the fact remains, the overriding fact is that the strait is closed. It's hard for me to imagine a way in which the United States can leave until it's open in some way. And so in that way, it feels. In that way, it does feel a little bit like Baghdad in 2006.
Noah Illinsky
We know that a lot of our listeners were children when the war in Iraq started. And so they don't actually have a good sense of what happened. Let's start this way. Why did President Bush start pushing to go to war in Iraq in the first place?
Dexter Filkins
Well, the United States had been attacked on 9 11. It was a. It was a terrible day.
Noah Illinsky
We have unconfirmed reports this morning that a plane has crashed into one of the towers.
Dexter Filkins
Oh, my God. My God.
George W. Bush
That looks like a second plane.
Dexter Filkins
3,000 people dead in New York. Many, many people dead at the Pentagon, in Washington. And so there was this kind of overwhelming sense that we were under attack from people that, you know, we didn't even know where they. Where they were from or where they were.
George W. Bush
I can hear you. The rest of the world hears you. And the people. And the people who knock these buildings down will hear all of us soon.
Dexter Filkins
And so first we went to war in Afghanistan. That looked like it was over very quickly.
George W. Bush
The United States, supported by many nations, is bringing justice to the terrorists in Afghanistan.
Dexter Filkins
And then we kind of looked around and said, wow, there's this really bad guy, Saddam Hussein, in Iraq, and he's causing a lot of problems, and he's invaded his neighbors. Let's get rid of him, too.
George W. Bush
The threat comes from Iraq. It arises directly from the Iraqi regime's own actions, its history of aggression and its drive toward an arsenal of terror.
Dexter Filkins
And the tragedy of the Iraq war, of course, is that it was never connected to 9 11, not in any way that anybody could see. But we went in anyway. We were kind of in the country. I mean, it was in this kind of deeply paranoid state. And we'd been traumatized. And so it was like, well, we can't have that happen again. Another 9 11. And Iraq and Saddam Hussein had tried in the past to develop nuclear weapons. I mean, we knew that they had tried. They had various secret programs to develop biological and chemical weapons, but we had thought that those things had been dismantled. The Iraqi government will hand over to
George W. Bush
UNSCOM their full, final, and complete declaration
Jake Sullivan
on Iraq's past biological weapons program.
George W. Bush
And I want to say that I welcome that.
Dexter Filkins
But then there was. There was this. This kind of lingering suspicion that. That Saddam was trying to build what they called weapons of mass destruction, which is to say nuclear weapons, biological weapons, chemical weapons that could. That could wreak Havoc on the United States.
George W. Bush
Iraq's weapons of mass destruction are controlled by a murderous tyrant who has already used chemical weapons to kill thousands of people.
Dexter Filkins
And so there was this kind of great fear that, oh my God, what if we didn't get it all? What if there's some secret place deep underground where they're making all, you know, they're making this stuff again. And that was the driving fear.
Noah Illinsky
So there was intelligence that suggested all of this, that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. That seemed to contribute, as I recall, to a sense in the country that, like, okay, yeah, we gotta do this now. Where did we get the intelligence that Iraq had WMDs?
Dexter Filkins
Well, I would frame it a little bit differently. I'd say, go ahead, please. I'd say we, we didn't really have very solid intelligence that Iraq had weapons to mass destruction. We had, I would say what, you know, hints and emanations and, you know, second and third hand reports. But we didn't, we didn't have the smoking gun and we didn't have, you know, we didn't have the photo of the secret lab where they're making this stuff. And so, and you know, the, the world of intelligence is you don't always get the photo of, you know, you don't get the smoking gun. So it's people kind of trying to make connections. And again, everybody was kind of utterly paranoid at the time. And so they, the intelligence people, they were under a lot of pressure from the White House, from the Bush White House at the time to basically give an answer that comported with the White House's fears. And so the Bush White House kind of took that and ran with it basically and said, okay, we're not gonna sit around and wait to be attacked. This is good enough. Even though it's not conclusive, it's good enough and we're going to war.
Noah Illinsky
All right? So the US Becomes convinced that this war is a just war and a good war. We're gonna do it. And then what did it actually take to get us into it? Where did Congress fit into all of this?
Dexter Filkins
Well, that's a really good question because it was very different. If I could take one step back and say, if we all had a copy of the Constitution in front of us, it would say Article 1, which is the powers enumerated to Congress. Congress has the power to declare war. The President does not. The President is the commander in chief of the armed forces. But Congress has that in practice. It hasn't worked out that way. But in the Iraq War, you know, Bush went to Congress and said, I need a resolution to go to war and to use force.
George W. Bush
Members of both houses, both political parties have deliberated with care, and they have spoken with clarity on behalf of the American people. We will face our dangers squarely.
Dexter Filkins
So it wasn't a formal declaration of war, but it was basically, I mean, it was pretty much a blank check to do what he needed to do. And so there was a, there was this kind of sense of buy in, you know, that basically Congress was on board. And so that, that is, that is conspicuously missing from this war. You know, President Trump went on his own. He didn't ask Congress, he didn't ask him for a declaration. We didn't have a debate in Congress. We didn't have, we didn't even have a speech to the American people about it until the president on his own decided to launch this. And I think that that's the biggest difference is that Trump is alone with this war. It's his.
Noah Illinsky
What about our NATO allies at the time? So I recall there being a fight over France, and we started calling them freedom Fries.
Dexter Filkins
We opened up our menu and the word French just took us and grabbed us. So all of a sudden we decided,
George W. Bush
you know what we're going to do? We're going to change our French fries to freedom fries.
Noah Illinsky
And there was a sense that, like, our allies were, did not have our back. But what was, what was the real story about what was going on when the US Made this decision with our NATO allies?
Dexter Filkins
Well, I think at the time, our allies were not convinced, and they weren't convinced of the, either the wisdom of going to war in Iraq or the, the evidence that showed that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction. France's distinct distaste for war continues to
George W. Bush
infuriate the United States. If military action proceeds without a new resolution of the Security Council, Canada will not participate.
Dexter Filkins
They stayed out largely, not entirely, but. But largely. And I just want to say, because a lot of people are angry at NATO right now and saying, how come you haven't helped us? And it's like, well, they, well, they did help us. And in Afghanistan, you know, when the United States got attacked on 9 11, all the NATO countries came to Afghanistan to help us. And they, and a lot of them took a lot of casualties. Like, you know, Trump was. President Trump was trashing Denmark. Denmark lost a lot of people in Afghanistan and a lot of dead and wounded up for us. And so we forget that. But when Iraq came, the allies said, look, this isn't a good idea. We can't really tell from this intelligence what's up and what's down. We don't want to do this, basically. Now, the big exception were the Brits. There were some others, but the British said, look, you know, we're your oldest and closest ally, and we'll join in.
George W. Bush
I know this course of action has produced deep divisions of opinion in our country, but I know also the British people will now be united in sending our armed forces our thoughts and prayers.
Noah Illinsky
All right, so In March of 2003, we invade Iraq. The slogan we heard at the time was shock and awe.
George W. Bush
This is shock and awe, Tom, for
Dexter Filkins
the population of Baghdad.
George W. Bush
Shock and awe indeed.
Noah Illinsky
And there was an idea that, like, we would win really quickly. We had a very strong military. Iraq was kind of a mess. What actually happened? How did the war proceed?
Dexter Filkins
Well, this is the most shocking part of the war. And I, you know, I was sort of there on the ground, and I remember the feeling of, holy cow, how could we be so stupid? And what I mean by that is, so we did. The United States, like the military, just, like, raced in. It took like, I don't know, 21 days or 20 days and took down the Iraqi government. Piece of cake. We hardly had any casualties. Tanks and armored vehicles drove past the wreckage of Iraqi tanks largely unopposed.
George W. Bush
Just in the last few moments, a U.S. marine tank with a large chain has pulled the statue of Saddam Hussein down.
Dexter Filkins
And then what followed was anarchy. Baghdad, August 19, 2003.
George W. Bush
A massive truck bomb destroys UN headquarters at the canal Hotel.
Dexter Filkins
And the reason why it was anarchy was in part because there was no plan for the day after. So they had. They had basically planned to destroy the Iraqi government, but. But no one had basically made a plan for what to do after the government was destroyed. And so, you know, Iraq is a really broken, traumatized country. And it just flew apart.
Noah Illinsky
Dexter Filkins. As Iraq was flying apart, the US Declared mission accomplished. What we were thinking. Coming up next, Support for today explained comes from Quo. When you've committed to leveling up your business, it can be surprising how much the basics matter, says quo. That's why a cleaner, more modern setup can make all the difference. Quo, spelled Q u o, says they're the modern alternative to run your business. Communications. Quo says they can work wherever you are, right from an app on your computer, while letting you keep the same number. That lets you add new numbers, new teammates in minutes, sync your CRM, rely on seamless routing, and call flows. As your business grows, Quo says you can see why they're the number one rated business phone system on G2 with over 3,000 reviews. That's why more than 90,000 businesses, I'm told, from solo operators to growing teams, rely on Quo to stay connected, professional and consistently reachable. You can make this the season where no opportunity and no customer slips away. You can try quo for free plus get 20% off your first six months when you go to quo.com explained that's quote com explained quo no missed calls, no missed customers.
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Dexter Filkins
This is TODAY Explained
Noah Illinsky
Today Explained is back. Dexter Filkins is back. Dexter, let's remember this President Bush claimed to have won the war in Iraq. About six weeks in, he gets on an Aircraft carrier.
Dexter Filkins
Ladies and gentlemen, the President of the United States.
Noah Illinsky
He's got this banner behind him that says mission accomplished.
George W. Bush
Because of you, the tyrant has fallen and Iraq is free.
Noah Illinsky
What was the moment? You were in the region, you were on the ground. What was the moment for you? It became clear that the mission had not been accomplished.
Dexter Filkins
Well, it was clear the moment we got that the US Military entered Baghdad. And it's, I think, let's see, I think the anniversary. It's April 9, 2003. So we're just, we're close to that anniversary that the anarchy and the chaos and the looting and the bloodshed began immediately. Immediately. So by the end of the day, after the US Military marches in triumphantly into, into the capital, by the, by nighttime, the capital is on fire.
George W. Bush
About 45 minutes after those Iraqi civilians tore down that statue of Saddam Hussein, these marines found themselves in the middle of a firefight. They sp.
Dexter Filkins
And there's total anarchy. And so when President Bush, you know, got, you know, flew into, on the aircraft carrier and said, you know, mission accomplished, I mean, it was, it was absurd then. But then it, then, of course, it became kind of a cruel joke because the anarchy that we witnessed in the Capitol that day just spread far and wide across the country and engulfed the country and stayed that way for a very long time.
Noah Illinsky
What allowed it to keep going? I, I like that you say the anarchy. I mean, I hate that it happened. But yes, the anarchy starts in Baghdad and then it spreads. And there's a world in which, okay, the US Is there, we've got good troops, we've got good weapons, and so we just win. But that's not what happened. What was happening in Iraq with Iraqis, that this just kept going on and on?
Dexter Filkins
Well, I, I think the important thing to consider is that it's, it's not enough. It's never enough. And you could say that, you could say this about the Iran war. You know, the U. S. Military is really good at what they do. And what they do is, you know, destroy their enemies. But that is not enough necessarily to, to make a. A just and lasting peace that will endure and that will say, allow the United States to leave. And so the United States had, you know, plenty of firepower, lots of guns, lots, lots of, you know, great weapons, but it wasn't enough. It wasn't enough to hold the country together. And so again, this was a, you know, this is a very traumatized country that had been kind of torn apart in many different ways, including by its own government for many, many Years. And so all these things kind of spilled out and front of us. But. But the main. But the overwhelming fact was, is that the United States military, after it destroyed the government, was unable to keep order. And until you can have order, you can't really have anything else. You can't build anything that will last because you have to have order and you have to have calm. And it, again, it took many, many years for the United States to figure out a way to, to make that happen.
Noah Illinsky
By the time we pulled out of Iraq in 2011, how had the region changed? Like, what did that war do to the Middle East?
Dexter Filkins
Oh, God. Well, the Iraq war was. It was like a magnet for every lunatic, and I mean it, every lunatic in the. Not just in the Middle east, but across the world. And so it was drawing people from, particularly from across the Islamic world into the country to fight the Americans. The early months of the war appear to be a swift and stunning victory as the old regime melts away. But Al Zarqawi is waiting in the shadows. Zarqawi, born in Jordan, is the most capable terrorist in Iraq today. And so it became this kind of self sustaining firestorm. And so you could, you could hear, you could see the propaganda, you could hear it on loudspeakers. Come, come to the fight. Come and fight the Americans. And that's that. And so we got ourselves into this kind of terrible situation where we saw ourselves as the saviors, but many people across the region saw us as invaders and as occupiers, and so took a long time to sort that out too.
Noah Illinsky
Yeah, our standing in the region was horrendous post war, I mean, during the war, but then post war. But I wonder also if you can reflect on what you think the Iraq war did to Americans. Because I remember, like, I remember the torture memos. I remember Abu Ghraib. Like, I just remember. And again, I was young, but I remember these things where I was like, oh, shit, this is who we are now. And I wonder, having experienced it as somebody covering it, what would you say that the Iraq war did to America,
Dexter Filkins
in terms of America? I would say it is a kind of a. It's a bit of a sad ledger because I think when the Americans went in and couldn't find any weapons of mass destruction, didn't find any nuclear weapons, people felt, I think many, many people felt like they'd been lied to. That, like, you know, the government wanted this war, they wanted to go to war no matter what, and they made up this intelligence to go in. And so you Know, whether that's true or not, I think there was a huge sense that people had felt betrayed. But, yeah, we kind of lost our bearings today.
George W. Bush
An independent panel appointed by the Pentagon released its report today on the abuse scandal at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq.
Dexter Filkins
Americans did this to an Iraqi prisoner,
George W. Bush
according to the U.S. army. The man was told to stand on a box with his head covered with wires attached to his hands. He was told that if he fell
Dexter Filkins
off the box, he would be electrocuted. I think, correctly, there was a feeling like, oh, my God, like, what it. You know, we embarked on this gigantic, ambitious, bloody, expensive venture, and, like, what did we get out of this? And. And I think, you know, the first and foremost, I think for a lot of people, it was a lot of pain is what we got out of it.
Noah Illinsky
All right, so as you've told the story of the war in Iraq, I am definitely hearing parallels to the war in Iran. Right. There's a country, it has weapons of mass destruction, nuclear weapons. We've got to keep them from getting those weapons. Our allies are uncertain, if not outright unsupportive of what we are doing. There is chaos in the region.
George W. Bush
We are.
Noah Illinsky
What do you make of the comparisons? What is appropriate and what is going too far at this moment?
Dexter Filkins
Well, I'm a little skeptical of those. I'd say any war is horrible, and terrible things inevitably happen. Like, for instance, in the Iran war, it's pretty clear that the United States bombed a school for children and killed 150 children. Kids or so. And that that kind of thing happens. And it's. Not to excuse it in any way, but it's, It's. And those things are kind of terrible across the board. But I, And I. But I would say there's a sense that I have, having. Having lived through the. And seen up close to the Iraq war, that the government, once again, is having a hard time speaking clearly about its goals and its justifications for being there. And that's kind of, you know, that's disturbing because, like, we live in a democracy, and the government should only be able to do what, you know, what they are sanctioned to do by their people. And so, you know, President Trump has given out so many different justifications as to why we're there. And so in that sense, it's kind of a. I do have this kind of empty, terrible feeling kind of deja vu.
Noah Illinsky
I want to ask you a last question. So one of the takeaways we hear, if you, like, turn on Ms. Now, for example, you're going to hear America never learns its lesson. America is going back into the Middle East. America's going to fight another stupid forever war. We just don't learn our lesson. We abandon our allies. We make the same mistake over and over again. You clearly have a more nuanced perspective on this, and you were in the region and that counts for a lot. What is the big lesson here for you after the last 25 years of US interference in the Middle East?
Dexter Filkins
Well, I think maybe that there isn't a big lesson. But I think in the case of Iran, in the Iran war, I'll tell you how I feel about it. I don't like the way the war started. I just kind of spelled out why I didn't like that. I'm very disturbed by it. But we're in it and it's too late to turn back now. And so I think the best that we can hope for and that we should hope for is that we can get to a kind of satisfactory resolution. And so at a minimum, I think that means for the Straits to be open so that the world economy, the global economy doesn't just tumble and tumble into a recession. My main hope is that we can somehow extricate ourselves from this war in a way that kind of doesn't leave the region in even greater chaos than what we have now.
Noah Illinsky
Dexter filkins, the new yorker and the forever war. Miles bryan produced today's show. Julie meyers edited, gabriel donatov fact checked and patrick boyden david tadashore engineered. Hi, I'm noaille king. It's today explained.
Dexter Filkins
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Date: April 7, 2026
Host: Vox, featuring Noah Illinsky
Guest: Dexter Filkins (Writer, The New Yorker; Author, The Forever War)
Episode Theme:
Reflections on the U.S. war in Iraq, its aftermath, and contemporary echoes in America’s war in Iran. Filkins unpacks the complex parallels between past and present U.S. military interventions in the Middle East, highlighting how lessons (un)learned continue to shape American policy and perception.
The episode explores the historical context, motivations, and consequences of the 2003 Iraq war, while drawing comparisons to the ongoing conflict in Iran under President Trump. Dexter Filkins lends firsthand insight as a longtime Middle East correspondent, dissecting how war rhetoric, intelligence failures, and lack of post-war planning led to chaos in Iraq—and warning of uncomfortable similarities in current U.S. conduct regarding Iran.
On U.S. Intelligence:
“We didn’t really have very solid intelligence that Iraq had weapons... we didn’t have the smoking gun.”
– Dexter Filkins [06:37]
On the Mission Accomplished Banner:
“When President Bush... said, you know, mission accomplished, I mean, it was absurd then. But then it, then, of course, it became kind of a cruel joke...”
– Dexter Filkins [17:37]
On American Disillusionment:
“I think many, many people felt like they’d been lied to. That, like, you know, the government wanted this war... and they made up this intelligence.”
– Dexter Filkins [22:14]
On Parallels to Iran War:
“The government, once again, is having a hard time speaking clearly about its goals... I do have this kind of empty, terrible feeling... déjà vu.”
– Dexter Filkins [24:05]
The discussion is measured, reflective, and often somber. Filkins speaks with the gravity of lived experience, careful not to reduce the conflicts to soundbites but rather emphasizing uncertainty, nuance, and accountability.
The episode offers a sobering reflection on the cost of war, the perils of acting on uncertain intelligence, and the enduring difficulty America faces in learning from past mistakes. Filkins warns that without clear goals, honest debate, and respect for the complexity of foreign societies, the U.S. risks repeating—and compounding—the same tragic errors in new theaters.