Reigniting Syria's civil war

Summary

Today, Explained: Reigniting Syria's Civil War

Released on December 5, 2024 | Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network

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Introduction: A Historical Context

In the opening segment, host Noel King provides a historical backdrop to the current conflict in Syria by referencing the brutal suppression of an uprising in Hama in 1982. He states:

“Way back in 1982, Syria's dictator Hafez Al Assad brutally crushed an uprising in the city of Hama. He sealed the city, he cut off food and electricity, and then his army started shelling and then he sent in troops. This was long before Twitter, so while thousands of people died, it took time for that massacre to be fully understood.”
[00:01]

This grim history sets the stage for understanding the longstanding authoritarian rule in Syria and the recent escalation of conflict.

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Current Escalation: Rebel Takeover of Hama

Noel King transitions to the present-day scenario, highlighting a critical development:

“But earlier today, Syrian rebels entered Hama. They say they've taken that city back from al Assad. In the past week, this rebel group has changed the course of a 13-year civil war, and the story of how they did that is coming up on Today. Explained.”
[00:27]

The takeover of Hama marks a significant turning point in Syria’s prolonged civil war, raising questions about the future stability of the region.

---

The Anatomy of the Conflict: Insights from Experts

Jihad Yazidi, Editor in Chief of the Syria Report, introduces the depth of the conflict:

“The conflict in Syria began in 2011 as initially as a popular uprising against the regime.”
[02:24]

Miles Bryan, a producer, elaborates on the origins and evolution of the civil war, noting how the initial demands for political liberalization were met with severe violence from President Bashar al Assad's regime:

“The initial demands of the population were for, to sum it up pretty, in short, was really to demand political liberalization, more political freedoms that was met actually with very heavy violence from the regime.”
[03:20]

As the war progressed, the opposition took up arms, transforming the uprising into a protracted civil conflict characterized by numerous casualties:

“Syrian activists say more than 1400 people had been killed since President Bashar al Assad launched a crackdown on protesters four months ago.”
[03:41]

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Rebel Offensive: The Rapid Assault on Aleppo

The recent offensive by Syrian rebels, particularly the group HTS (Hay et Tahrir Sham), has rapidly altered the landscape of the conflict. Miles Bryan details the swift movement of rebel forces:

“What we have seen, actually, is that group of rebel fighters crossing front lines very rapidly with relatively light military equipment, and taking over areas controlled formally by the Syrian government.”
[04:00]

Within days, rebels captured Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, with minimal resistance:

“Within a day, less than two days at least, they reached the borders of Aleppo... they would be able to take over the city with almost no defense, no fighting, within a couple of days.”
[05:01]

This seizure symbolizes a major defeat for Bashar al Assad, whose hold over the country was once deemed unassailable:

“The conviction was only a week ago that Bashar al Assad had won the Syria war... this whole discourse... collapsed entirely. So it's amazing. Major, major defeat for Bashar. Bashar is clearly the very big loser here.”
[07:47]

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Factors Contributing to the Rebel Success

Several factors have converged to enable the rebels' recent successes:

1. Regional Conflicts’ Spillover: The ongoing Israeli conflicts have weakened Iranian support and affiliated militias like Hezbollah, creating a security vacuum that rebel groups exploited.

2. Economic Decline of the Assad Regime: The Syrian government's deteriorating economic conditions, characterized by low soldier salaries and rampant corruption, have sapped the regime's capacity to sustain its military efforts:

   “The Syrian government and regime has been impoverished, crumbling very gradually, very steadily over the past few years... soldiers do not really have any motivation to fight for the regime.”
   [08:38]

3. Strategic Withdrawal: The Assad regime’s strategic retreat to Hama to regroup has inadvertently facilitated the rebels' rapid advance and territorial gains.

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Domestic Reactions: A Divided Nation

The rebel takeover has elicited mixed reactions within Syria:

• Assad Supporters:
  A dwindling number of Assad loyalists express dismay over the loss of major cities.

• Opposition and General Population:
  Many are elated by the rebels’ efforts to free political prisoners and facilitate the return of displaced individuals. However, the conservative ideology of HTS instills fear about potential future impositions, such as mandatory veiling and alcohol bans:

  “At the same time, the main rebel organization, HTS... bans alcohol, and so on, so forth. Now, what has happened in Aleppo so far is relatively reassuring in the sense that they have not tried to impose yet their very strict rules. But there is anxiety among Syrians about what could potentially happen...”
  [09:35]

Moreover, observers worry about the possibility of large-scale urban battles resuming, reminiscent of past fierce conflicts.

---

HTS: From Al-Qaeda Affiliation to Nationalist Ambitions

Miles Bryan provides an in-depth analysis of HTS:

“HTS is actually the result of the merger of several organizations that fought against the Syrian regime. One of these organizations was actually an affiliate of Al Qaeda...”
[16:11]

HTS has been working to distance itself from its Al-Qaeda origins, attempting to rebrand as a conservative Islamic organization focused solely on governing Syria rather than pursuing transnational jihadist objectives. This strategic shift is critical for HTS's quest to gain broader legitimacy and possibly appeal for support beyond militant factions.

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Leadership and Future Prospects

The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed Al Julani, is portrayed as a pragmatic yet ambitious figure aiming to consolidate power across Syria:

“Abu Mohammed Al Julani... he has been ruling... that northwestern part of Syria... probably the best managed part of Syria.”
[19:58]

Despite his efforts to present HTS as a national rather than a purely jihadist entity, questions persist about his willingness and ability to compromise with Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious groups. Miles Bryan posits that geographical and geopolitical pressures will necessitate such compromises:

“He could think that he can take over power by sheer force, but it would be very difficult for him to maintain his rule over the country and stabilize it without compromising.”
[21:29]

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International Perspectives and U.S. Policy

The episode delves into the complex dynamics between HTS, the Assad regime, and international actors, particularly the United States:

“The US stated goal is to get Bashar Al Assad out.”
[23:52]

However, Miles Bryan nuances this by suggesting that the U.S. may prioritize regional stability and countering Iranian influence over the outright removal of Assad, especially in the absence of a viable alternative leadership:

“What the US Wants is stability, safe border for Israel, weaker Iran... the least bad option if you want.”
[24:05]

This ambiguity in U.S. policy complicates the potential for HTS to be seen as a preferable alternative to Assad.

---

Potential Positives Amidst Conflict

Despite the grim circumstances, there are silver linings emerging from the recent developments:

1. Liberation of Political Prisoners:
   The rebels' takeover has led to the release of many long-term detainees, offering hope for justice and reconciliation.

2. Return of Displaced Populations:
   Areas reclaimed by rebels allow refugees and internally displaced persons to consider returning home, aiding in the country's gradual recovery.

3. Weakened Assad Regime:
   A destabilized Assad government may eventually pave the way for a more inclusive and representative political process.

“There is something positive because I think that some IDPs and refugees will be able to return home... Bashar is weaker and Bashar is an absolutely terrible individual that needs to be himself and his whole regime need to be weakened.”
[26:12]

However, these positives are tempered by the enduring threat of renewed intense warfare, which remains a significant concern for both Syrians and international observers.

---

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Syria

As the civil war in Syria reignites with the rebel seizure of Hama and Aleppo, the episode underscores the fragile and volatile nature of the conflict. The potential for HTS to alter the balance of power introduces both opportunities for positive change and the specter of renewed violence. The international community remains uncertain about the best path forward, balancing strategic interests with the imperative to support a sustainable and just resolution for the Syrian people.

---

Additional Credits:

• Produced by: Peter Balan Rosen and Miles Bryan
• Edited by: Matthew Collette
• Engineered by: Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers
• Fact-Checked by: Nuke Do

For More Information:

• Syria Report: syria-report.com

---

Transcript

[Noel King]

Way back in 1982, Syria's dictator Hafez Al Assad brutally crushed an uprising in the city of Hama. He sealed the city, he cut off food and electricity, and then his army started shelling and then he sent in troops. This was long before Twitter, so while thousands of people died, it took time for that massacre to be fully understood. There were only a few journalists there.

[Jihad Yazidji]

But it was a huge death toll.

[Noel King]

And the smoke hung over the city. It was a very frightening place. Ide see it, I guess. I'm sorry. I saw it in many ways as dictators do. Hafez handed Syria over to his son, Bashar al Assad. Like his dad, he crushes dissent with violence. But earlier today, Syrian rebels entered Hama. They say they've taken that city back from al Assad. In the past week, this rebel group has changed the course of a 13 year civil war, and the story of how they did that is coming up on Today. Explained.

[Claire White]

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[Peter Balan Rosen]

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[Jihad Yazidji]

This is Today Explained.

[Noel King]

Jihad Yazidi is the editor in chief of the Syria Report. It's an online publication. For 23 years he's written about Syria, including of course the country's civil war in which rebels are fighting President Bashar al Assad.

[Miles Bryan]

The conflict in Syria began in 2011 as initially as a popular uprising against the regime.

[Noel King]

They are calling it the Aleppo Volcano.

[Peter Balan Rosen]

In Syria's second largest city, protesters are determined to bring down their regime. They took to the streets on Thursday. They define heavily Armed securing forces.

[Miles Bryan]

As dictators fell from power following the fervor.

[Jihad Yazidji]

Of the 2011 Arab Spring, peaceful protesters.

[Miles Bryan]

In Syria also demanded a change in leadership. The initial demands of the population were for, to sum it up pretty, in short, was really to demand political liberalization, more political freedoms that was met actually with very heavy violence from the regime.

[Peter Balan Rosen]

Syrian activists say more than 1400 people had been killed since President Bashar al Assad launched a crackdown on protesters four months ago.

[Jihad Yazidji]

Since the very start, President Assad has.

[Miles Bryan]

Had one objective, staying in power. And he's been prepared to do pretty.

[Jihad Yazidji]

Pretty much anything to achieve it.

[Miles Bryan]

When you shoot, you aim. And when you shoot, when you aim, you aim at terrorists in order to protect civilians. Again, if you're talking about casualty, that's war. You cannot have war without casualty. The opposition took up arms, and it has been evolving as a civil conflict for many, many years now. So basically, what is happening now, what we are seeing the past few weeks, is that one segment of the opposition, which controlled so far a very small part of Syria, and which happens also to be to have an ideology which is quite radical, very conservative, from an Islamic conservative ideology, the organization controlling that part of Syria went on the attack and took over large parts of northern Syria, including the country's second largest city, and managed within a few days to double the size of the area under their control.

[Noel King]

I want you to walk me through what that looked like.

[Miles Bryan]

Yes. So what we have seen, actually, is that group of rebel fighters. So that's not a formal army comprised of several thousands, probably maybe in the low dozens of thousands, crossing front lines very rapidly with relatively light equipment, military equipment, and taking over areas controlled formally by the Syrian government. So they have managed to move forward quite quickly. Everybody's assumption is that the initial attack aimed at gaining a few kilometers, at enlarging a bit the area which is under their control. But what happened is actually the defense of the regime, of the government, completely collapsed. So within a day, less than two days at least, they reached the borders of Aleppo, Syria's second largest city. And it was really unexpected that they would get there that quickly. But what was even more unexpected was that they would be able to take over the city with almost no defense, no fighting, within a couple of days. This is the center of Aleppo, the second largest city, which until Friday was one of the main strongholds of the Syrian army. As a symbol of its form, the statues of the governing Assad family are taken down by the rebels amid jubilation.

[Noel King]

Aleppo has been fought over before in the course of this war. This is not the first battle for Aleppo. It sounds like what you're saying, though, is this wasn't even really a battle. As these fighters came in, the city just fell.

[Miles Bryan]

You are absolutely right. In 2016, actually, the government took over Aleppo from the opposition with the support of the Russian air force. That was almost exactly eight years ago, in December 2016. So the regime has been controlling the whole of the city for the past eight years. What we have seen here now is no real battle at all, actually, as I said, Within 48 hours, they had control of the whole city. What seems to have happened is that the government, realizing that it was too weak, decided to withdraw its forces to fall back on the city Hama, so that they can prepare a real defense. The decision was made to withdraw, to retreat very quickly so that they could recoup and mount some form of more decent defense, which is currently happening now.

[Noel King]

All right, so this is a very big deal for Bashar al Assad. This is humiliating.

[Miles Bryan]

This is not only humiliating for him, but this is changing radically the map of the country and of what will happen in the future. The conviction was only a week ago that Bashar al Assad had won the Syria war, that although he did not control the whole of the country, there was no chance of moving him out, and that we need to find some form of normalization with the regime. This whole discourse, in the space of 24 hours, 48 hours, collapsed entirely. So it's amazing. Major, major defeat for Bashar. Bashar is clearly the very big loser here.

[Noel King]

This group could have done this six months ago. They could have done this six months from now. Why did they do it last weekend and why was it so successful?

[Miles Bryan]

The reason we have this now is a large part a consequence of the Israeli war on Gaza and on Lebanon. This has weakened tremendous, mostly the Iranians and the militias affiliated to them, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other militias. And that has created a void. If you want another dimension to take into account is that the Syrian government and regime has been impoverished, crumbling very gradually, very steadily over the past few years. Soldiers are paid very low salaries. There are no job opportunities. There's no investment by the government. There's a lot of corruption. And one of the reasons the soldiers did not fight is because they don't really have really any motivation to fight for the regime.

[Noel King]

When this rebel group successfully took the city, what was the reaction in Syria?

[Miles Bryan]

Supporters of Bashar al Assad, which are today, very few, are unhappy, of course, about what happened. Supporters of the opposition, which are More numerous have a mixed reaction. Why? Because on the one hand you are seeing these people, these soldiers, these armed rebels, when they entered Aleppo, opening up political prisons, freeing political prisoners, some of whom have been in prison without judgment for 10, 15 or 20 years. You can only be very happy about that also because these attacks by rebels are going to help a lot of displaced people and refugees in Turkey return home. Because a lot of them originally lived in the areas which were taken back. In the past few days, they were expelled by Bashar Al Assad's forces and were not allowed to return back. So a lot of people are very happy about that. At the same time, the main rebel organization, hts that took over Aleppo, its ideology is very conservative. So it forces women to wear veils, it bans alcohol, and so on, so forth. Now, what has happened in Aleppo so far in the past few days is relatively reassuring in the sense that they have not tried to impose yet their very strict rules. But there is anxiety among Syrians about what could potentially happen and beyond whose sides you are on today. What is making people anxious is that we are seeing the return of large scale battles in urban areas with large number of casualties. You have had a low intensity conflict for quite a few years now and what a lot of people fear is a return of these intense part of the conflict. In Aleppo, as I said, there were no battles. There was no battle really. It was easy to take over. But in Hama, for example, you are seeing very heavy battles and that's really very worrying.

[Noel King]

The real danger here is that this civil war, which for a while was being fought at a low level, is now exploding again.

[Miles Bryan]

Yes, exactly. That's a real risk.

[Noel King]

Coming up, Jihad comes back to tell us about the man who leads the rebels. He looks like Fidel Castro. He wants Bashar Al Assad's job and he's trying to rebrand himself as a moderate. Support for Today explained comes from Quince for that special feeling when you give someone a gift that they wouldn't necessarily get for themselves and they love it. Quince. This holiday season, Quince wants to help you treat your loved ones to everyday luxury at affordable prices. Quince says they're known for Mongolian cashmere sweaters from just $50 and all other quince items are priced 50 to 80% less than similar brands. And you can find year round gifts, 14 carat jewelry, Italian leather handbags, European linen sheet sets too. Plus Quinn says they only work with factories that use safe, ethical and responsible manufacturing practices. Claire White works at Vox. Here's what she thinks about Quince.

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[Noel King]

You'Re listening to today Explained. We're back with Jihad Yazidji of the Syria Report. Jihad, tell us about the group that pulled off this stunning offensive in Syria. Who are they?

[Miles Bryan]

So the organization is called hts, which stands for Hay et Tahrir Sham or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. The Levant meaning Syria and Lebanon.

[Noel King]

Known by their initials, HTS, they are made up of some 30 armed groups and at least 60,000 well trained fighters.

[Miles Bryan]

It has long been dominant in Idlib, part of the north west.

[Peter Balan Rosen]

That stayed under rebel control for the past few years.

[Miles Bryan]

We have returned to Aleppo. After 10 years we have arrived and.

[Noel King]

Can finally see it.

[Miles Bryan]

Thank God. So HTS is actually the result of the merger of several organization that fought against the Syrian regime. One of these organization was actually an affiliate of Al Qaeda. So it originates in Al Qaeda. Now gradually, HTS has sought to distance itself from Al Qaeda to the extent that actually they have also fought Al Qaeda and expelled Al Qaeda from their area. And they have steadily tried to rebrand themselves as certainly a conservative Islamic organization, but not as a takfiri or what we would call jihadist organization such as Al Qaeda and isis. And if you allow me, I'll just try to clarify what is the difference between these two types of organization.

[Noel King]

Yes, please, please.

[Miles Bryan]

An organization such as HTS has a very Islamist radical ideology which it wants to impose on the population. It rules, it governs, but it has no ambition to convert non Muslims or to export its model to other countries. ISIS or Al Qaeda are transnational organization. They don't only want to impose the Sharia, the Islamic rule, the Islamic law on their population, but they want to export their model around the world. They want to convert non Muslims to Islam and they are ready to fight for that and to kill for that. That's a big difference. So ISIS and Al Qaeda are considered, are transnational organizations considered terrorist organizations. Now that's just also to be more precise, HTS technically is considered by the US as a terrorist organization because it was originally affiliated with Al Qaeda.

[Jihad Yazidji]

The organization that launched this offensive over the weekend is a terrorist organization designated as such by the United States. We certainly do not support that organization in any way, shape or form.

[Miles Bryan]

What it wants to do now is get delisted. What they have been trying to do is rebrand themselves, but also their whole ideology. I mean when you read, listen to the official statements, they are all tending towards that, towards an organization, as I said, that wants only to rule the place. It is in that does not want to fight any other country. So they remain listed as a terrorist organization. But it is true that in practice, they say they don't want to fight anyone outside their national borders.

[Noel King]

Okay, so from the perspective of people who are not in the region, not in Syria, HTS is a less dangerous group. Who is the leader of HTS and what does he want?

[Miles Bryan]

Yeah, so the nom de guerre, as we say, of the leader of HTS is Abu Mohammed Al Julani. He's a Muslim, Sunni. He originates from southern Syria. He entered the ranks of al Qaeda, established HTs, and then decided to shift, if you want his focus, into a more nationalist agenda. Giulani is a quite impressive figure. The area he is ruling, he has been ruling. That northwestern part of Syria he has been ruling for many years is probably the best managed part of Syria. So Giulani is quite impressive in terms of what he has succeeded in doing. I do think that at the end of the day, he wants to rule the whole of Syria. And I think that this is why. Also, he knows that if he wants to rule the whole of Syria, which has Christians, Shias, Druze, Kurds, who are not Arabs, well, you have to compromise. And I think that's why also. That's what explains the fact that he's trying to open up and to rebrand himself into a more, if you want, mainstream Islamist organization.

[Noel King]

If he wants to rule the whole of Syria, he should compromise. He is saying he will compromise. Do you believe that he's going to compromise if he were able to take power? Is this a guy who is going to be moderate?

[Miles Bryan]

Whether he compromises or not is going to depend a lot on the balance of power. At this stage, he's obliged to compromise. And at a later stage he will be obliged, in my opinion, to compromise. For the simple reason is that not only Syria is home to a large number of communities that are not Arab Sunnis as he is, but also because Syria has a very strategic geographic location. I argue actually that currently a lot of regional players, not only the traditional supporters of the regime, but even countries in the Gulf, Jordan, and to some extent the Israelis, they may prefer Bashar Al Assad to stay, at least for a temporary period, than to allow Giulani to take over. Giulani, if he reads well the geopolitics of the region, he will understand that also from a geopolitical angle, he has to make compromises because otherwise he will have opposition either from the Israelis or from the Turks or from the Gulfies or from the Iraqis who are in majority, Shia. So the geographic location, the internal composition of society should eventually force Giulani to compromise. He could think that he can take over power by sheer force, but it would be, in my opinion, very difficult for him to maintain his rule over the country and stabilize it without compromising.

[Noel King]

All right, so this is a man who has said repeatedly that he is not a threat to the Western world.

[Miles Bryan]

Giulani, speaking to PBS in 2021, said, quote, most importantly, first and foremost, this region does not represent a threat to the security of Europe and America.

[Jihad Yazidji]

This region is not a stage for executing external operations.

[Noel King]

That's the argument he's made for getting off of the sanctions list. I'm not interested in what goes on in the United States or in France or in the uk. I'm interested in Syria. His goal is to get rid of Bashar Al Assad. That is also what the United States wants, right?

[Miles Bryan]

I'm not sure, Noel. I'm not sure that today the United States goal is to get Bashar al Assad out. The United States stated goal is to get Bashar Al Assad out.

[Jihad Yazidji]

Nothing has changed with respect to our policy. Assad is a brutal dictator with blood on his hands. Ultimately, what we want to see is a political process forward where the Syrian people get to determine, determine who their leaders are.

[Miles Bryan]

But the US Goal is to weaken Iran, to protect the borders of Israel, to prevent refugee flows, although it's not a direct threat to the US but it can be to its allies if you want a stable country. So indeed, if you want to get Iran out and Bashar cannot distance himself from the Iranians, you would want Bashar out, but you don't want Bashar out. In any case, in any situation, unless you have an alternative. What the US Wants is a guy in Damascus whom they can call and who is capable of giving orders to an army, to an armed group, so that when the US Say I want this or I don't want that, they have a guy who can answer and can implement decisions if you want. One of the weaknesses of the Syrian opposition at the very beginning of the uprising 13 years ago is that he didn't have such a leadership. The US Certainly what it wants is stability, safe border for Israel, weaker Iran. If this is done through Bashar, Sub Bashar will stay. If Bashar cannot help Sub Bashar, I'm not saying the Americans have the capacity or the willingness to invest into kicking him or keeping him, but I'm just trying to answer the question of do they want him still in power or not, the official stated policy, given the massive crimes widely documented that Bashar Al Assad committed, it's very difficult for you if you are a Western liberal country, to openly support him. But in practice what they want is the least bad option if you want. So I'm not 100% sure that it is really the aim of the US to get Bashar out of power.

[Noel King]

Jihad, you've been covering this terrible war since it began so 13 years. This week there was a big change at a moment where it didn't seem like any change was coming. Are there positives here, do you think?

[Miles Bryan]

Yes, of course there's something positive. There's something positive in the sense, as I said, that we have seen people freed from prisons. There's something positive because I think that some IDPs and refugees will be able to return home. Positive in the sense that Bashar is weaker and Bashar is an absolutely terrible individual that needs to be himself and his whole regime need to be weakened. Maybe one more positive thing is that there is renewed focus a bit on Syria, but this of course has a bad aspect and a positive one. It all depends on how it turns. So no, I think there are positives, but of course war and conflict is something you look forward to, obviously.

[Noel King]

Jihad Yazidji is Editor in Chief of the Syria Report. You can find them at syria-report.com Peter Balan Rosen and Miles Bryan produced today's episode. Matthew Collette edited, Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers engineered a nuke do so fact checked. I'm Noel King, It's TODAY Explained.

[Claire White]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world, including companies like uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more. Stripe Make Progress.