Today, Explained: Reigniting Syria's Civil War

Released on December 5, 2024 | Part of the Vox Media Podcast Network

Introduction: A Historical Context

In the opening segment, host Noel King provides a historical backdrop to the current conflict in Syria by referencing the brutal suppression of an uprising in Hama in 1982. He states:

“Way back in 1982, Syria's dictator Hafez Al Assad brutally crushed an uprising in the city of Hama. He sealed the city, he cut off food and electricity, and then his army started shelling and then he sent in troops. This was long before Twitter, so while thousands of people died, it took time for that massacre to be fully understood.”
[00:01]

This grim history sets the stage for understanding the longstanding authoritarian rule in Syria and the recent escalation of conflict.

Current Escalation: Rebel Takeover of Hama

Noel King transitions to the present-day scenario, highlighting a critical development:

“But earlier today, Syrian rebels entered Hama. They say they've taken that city back from al Assad. In the past week, this rebel group has changed the course of a 13-year civil war, and the story of how they did that is coming up on Today. Explained.”
[00:27]

The takeover of Hama marks a significant turning point in Syria’s prolonged civil war, raising questions about the future stability of the region.

The Anatomy of the Conflict: Insights from Experts

Jihad Yazidi, Editor in Chief of the Syria Report, introduces the depth of the conflict:

“The conflict in Syria began in 2011 as initially as a popular uprising against the regime.”
[02:24]

Miles Bryan, a producer, elaborates on the origins and evolution of the civil war, noting how the initial demands for political liberalization were met with severe violence from President Bashar al Assad's regime:

“The initial demands of the population were for, to sum it up pretty, in short, was really to demand political liberalization, more political freedoms that was met actually with very heavy violence from the regime.”
[03:20]

As the war progressed, the opposition took up arms, transforming the uprising into a protracted civil conflict characterized by numerous casualties:

“Syrian activists say more than 1400 people had been killed since President Bashar al Assad launched a crackdown on protesters four months ago.”
[03:41]

Rebel Offensive: The Rapid Assault on Aleppo

The recent offensive by Syrian rebels, particularly the group HTS (Hay et Tahrir Sham), has rapidly altered the landscape of the conflict. Miles Bryan details the swift movement of rebel forces:

“What we have seen, actually, is that group of rebel fighters crossing front lines very rapidly with relatively light military equipment, and taking over areas controlled formally by the Syrian government.”
[04:00]

Within days, rebels captured Aleppo, Syria's second-largest city, with minimal resistance:

“Within a day, less than two days at least, they reached the borders of Aleppo... they would be able to take over the city with almost no defense, no fighting, within a couple of days.”
[05:01]

This seizure symbolizes a major defeat for Bashar al Assad, whose hold over the country was once deemed unassailable:

“The conviction was only a week ago that Bashar al Assad had won the Syria war... this whole discourse... collapsed entirely. So it's amazing. Major, major defeat for Bashar. Bashar is clearly the very big loser here.”
[07:47]

Factors Contributing to the Rebel Success

Several factors have converged to enable the rebels' recent successes:

1. Regional Conflicts’ Spillover: The ongoing Israeli conflicts have weakened Iranian support and affiliated militias like Hezbollah, creating a security vacuum that rebel groups exploited.

2. Economic Decline of the Assad Regime: The Syrian government's deteriorating economic conditions, characterized by low soldier salaries and rampant corruption, have sapped the regime's capacity to sustain its military efforts:

   “The Syrian government and regime has been impoverished, crumbling very gradually, very steadily over the past few years... soldiers do not really have any motivation to fight for the regime.”
   [08:38]

3. Strategic Withdrawal: The Assad regime’s strategic retreat to Hama to regroup has inadvertently facilitated the rebels' rapid advance and territorial gains.

Domestic Reactions: A Divided Nation

The rebel takeover has elicited mixed reactions within Syria:

• Assad Supporters:
  A dwindling number of Assad loyalists express dismay over the loss of major cities.

• Opposition and General Population:
  Many are elated by the rebels’ efforts to free political prisoners and facilitate the return of displaced individuals. However, the conservative ideology of HTS instills fear about potential future impositions, such as mandatory veiling and alcohol bans:

  “At the same time, the main rebel organization, HTS... bans alcohol, and so on, so forth. Now, what has happened in Aleppo so far is relatively reassuring in the sense that they have not tried to impose yet their very strict rules. But there is anxiety among Syrians about what could potentially happen...”
  [09:35]

Moreover, observers worry about the possibility of large-scale urban battles resuming, reminiscent of past fierce conflicts.

HTS: From Al-Qaeda Affiliation to Nationalist Ambitions

Miles Bryan provides an in-depth analysis of HTS:

“HTS is actually the result of the merger of several organizations that fought against the Syrian regime. One of these organizations was actually an affiliate of Al Qaeda...”
[16:11]

HTS has been working to distance itself from its Al-Qaeda origins, attempting to rebrand as a conservative Islamic organization focused solely on governing Syria rather than pursuing transnational jihadist objectives. This strategic shift is critical for HTS's quest to gain broader legitimacy and possibly appeal for support beyond militant factions.

Leadership and Future Prospects

The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed Al Julani, is portrayed as a pragmatic yet ambitious figure aiming to consolidate power across Syria:

“Abu Mohammed Al Julani... he has been ruling... that northwestern part of Syria... probably the best managed part of Syria.”
[19:58]

Despite his efforts to present HTS as a national rather than a purely jihadist entity, questions persist about his willingness and ability to compromise with Syria’s diverse ethnic and religious groups. Miles Bryan posits that geographical and geopolitical pressures will necessitate such compromises:

“He could think that he can take over power by sheer force, but it would be very difficult for him to maintain his rule over the country and stabilize it without compromising.”
[21:29]

International Perspectives and U.S. Policy

The episode delves into the complex dynamics between HTS, the Assad regime, and international actors, particularly the United States:

“The US stated goal is to get Bashar Al Assad out.”
[23:52]

However, Miles Bryan nuances this by suggesting that the U.S. may prioritize regional stability and countering Iranian influence over the outright removal of Assad, especially in the absence of a viable alternative leadership:

“What the US Wants is stability, safe border for Israel, weaker Iran... the least bad option if you want.”
[24:05]

This ambiguity in U.S. policy complicates the potential for HTS to be seen as a preferable alternative to Assad.

Potential Positives Amidst Conflict

Despite the grim circumstances, there are silver linings emerging from the recent developments:

1. Liberation of Political Prisoners:
   The rebels' takeover has led to the release of many long-term detainees, offering hope for justice and reconciliation.

2. Return of Displaced Populations:
   Areas reclaimed by rebels allow refugees and internally displaced persons to consider returning home, aiding in the country's gradual recovery.

3. Weakened Assad Regime:
   A destabilized Assad government may eventually pave the way for a more inclusive and representative political process.

“There is something positive because I think that some IDPs and refugees will be able to return home... Bashar is weaker and Bashar is an absolutely terrible individual that needs to be himself and his whole regime need to be weakened.”
[26:12]

However, these positives are tempered by the enduring threat of renewed intense warfare, which remains a significant concern for both Syrians and international observers.

Conclusion: A Pivotal Moment for Syria

As the civil war in Syria reignites with the rebel seizure of Hama and Aleppo, the episode underscores the fragile and volatile nature of the conflict. The potential for HTS to alter the balance of power introduces both opportunities for positive change and the specter of renewed violence. The international community remains uncertain about the best path forward, balancing strategic interests with the imperative to support a sustainable and just resolution for the Syrian people.

Additional Credits:

• Produced by: Peter Balan Rosen and Miles Bryan
• Edited by: Matthew Collette
• Engineered by: Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers
• Fact-Checked by: Nuke Do

For More Information:

• Syria Report: syria-report.com