B (2:09)

We are ending the war on saturated fats.

D (2:13)

So now at the top you have cheese and eggs and steak and whole milk and yes, also fruits and vegetables. And at the bottom and the tiny point of the pyramid are whole grains.

A (2:24)

There's one thing that I personally have been obsessed with. So I'm looking at it right now. I have it up. Okay, so there's a turkey or a chicken. There's a steak. There's a salmon steak. Looks good. Looks good. There's what appears to be a plastic container of ground beef. Are you seeing what I'm seeing?

D (2:40)

There is a plastic container of ground beef. You should eat your burgers.

A (2:43)

That feels wrong.

D (2:45)

With cheese on top.

A (2:46)

That feels wrong to me. Tell me what I'm Missing. Cause this is the part I hear you on protein, but also, we've all had lean meat drummed into our heads. That something about the plastic container of ground beef is really sending me. What is the message it is sending me as it sends me?

D (3:01)

So the reason you're confused is because there are a lot of conflicting messages here. One of the reasons people really hate nutrition science is because it's always changing. Right. It's like, you can drink red wine. No, you can't drink red wine. And everybody just turns off. The only thing that anyone has been consistently saying to us for nearly 50 years is, don't eat too much saturated fat.

A (3:26)

Yeah.

B (3:26)

Let me tell you right off the.

C (3:28)

Bat, these days, fat is not where it's at. Saturated fat is unhealthy. It raises cholesterol levels in your body and increases your risk of heart disease.

D (3:39)

Now, the pyramid seems to be saying something completely different. And what's really interesting is that in the recommendations, if you read into them, it says the exact same thing it's always said, which is that 10% of your diet should come from saturated fats. No more. At the same time, they're saying, yeah, go ahead and eat your cheeseburgers. But they're not kind of reconciling how those two things happen at the same time.

A (4:05)

When asked, what has RFK said about that? Because it is the most obvious point here. And I wonder, I mean, I think RFK takes this stuff seriously. How is he trying to square it?

D (4:17)

They really haven't tried to square it.

A (4:19)

Huh.

D (4:19)

So the backstory here is that for months there was this drumbeat that they were going to end this limit on saturated fats because they think that meat and eggs and dairy are good for us. At the last minute, they just took that back. And from off the record conversations, it seems that they just didn't want to have that kind of controversy. And they were afraid that if they changed the limit on saturated fat, that would be the big story coming out of the guidelines, that instead of us talking about whole foods or us talking about increasing the amount of protein we should eat, everybody would be talking about the change in saturated fats. So they decided to just leave it, recommend what they wanted to recommend. And now we're in a bit of a muddle.

A (5:06)

All right, so this is very interesting. Then, as you say, we have kind of a flippage here. And so what ends up down at the bottom? What are the foods that now get short shrift.

D (5:16)

Grains.

A (5:17)

Grains.

D (5:18)

So, you know, say kiss your favorite pasta goodbye when you're Here, eat family. Before, in the Obama administration, we didn't have a pyramid. We had something called MyPlate. And it looked like a plate. And it showed you how much of your plate was supposed to be fruits and vegetables, meat and grains. In that iteration, half were supposed to be whole grains. Now it's just whole grains. No refined carbohydrates, and even fewer of them than before. So that's the first thing. The second thing is sugar.

B (5:48)

And today our government declares war on added sugar.

D (5:52)

I mean, I don't think anybody disagrees that we all eat too much sugar, but they have cut back the limit of sugar that people should be eating. And make no mistake, none of us were meeting that when it was higher. And in addition, they have said that children under 10 should have no added sugars at all. So no Halloween, no birthday parties, no Christmas cookies, nothing.

A (6:19)

No chance.

D (6:19)

I mean, I'd love to see how that's gonna go.

A (6:21)

Yeah.

D (6:22)

Good luck, parents.

A (6:24)

So the Trump administration, very interestingly from the jump, has expressed priorities on food in a way that strikes me as different from previous administrations, just because there's been so much focus on them. Like I remember Trump saying Coke needed to change its recipe, I think, to go back to real sugar from corn syrup.

D (6:45)

Truth Social.

F (6:47)

I have been speaking to OCA Cola about using real cane sugar in Coke in the United States, and they have agreed to do so. I'd like to thank all of those in authority at Coca Cola. This will be a very good move by them.

A (7:03)

You'll see.

F (7:04)

It's just better.

A (7:06)

The FDA was banning a type of red dye early on. So does this set of recommendations play into what else we've seen from the administration so far?

D (7:16)

I think that what we can say about this is that it makes official the war on ultra processed foods. They are not using the word ultra processed. They're using the word highly processed. That is for technical reasons, because they don't have an exact definition of ultra processed foods. But basically you get what they mean. They mean don't eat Fritos, don't eat Pop Tarts, don't eat things that have these unpronounceable ingredients. And they are saying it loud and clear. And that's new. And I think that, frankly, that's a win for Maha, and I think that's a win for Kennedy. The other thing that they have talked a lot about just as strongly as ultra processed foods, I think is working with unbiased science. I mean, one of their favorite terms is gold standard science. And they want randomized, controlled Trials, and they don't want scientists that are bought off by industry. And what's really interesting about that is that in this report, they go to great trouble to show that they are rejecting some 50% of the recommendations that were made by an unbiased group of scientists not influenced by industry. And then when you look at the references they have for the science saying, you should eat more meat, you should eat more dairy, lo and behold, those studies are funded by people like the National Cattlemen's association or the National Dairy Council or the Texas Beef Council. So it's a very. You know, it's interesting. There's good, there's bad. But I wouldn't say that they are delivering on all the promises that they have been talking about.

B (8:57)

Hmm.

A (8:58)

All right. So my understanding has always been these guidelines are guidelines. Nobody's gonna tell me how to eat. I am an American. What do they actually change then?

D (9:06)

The guidelines have always been an internal document. They have been guidelines that direct what schools can put on the menu at school lunch and what kinds of foods are served in military canteens. So they will affect those. And I think there are a lot of questions about how people are going to do that. I mean, you and I have talked about school lunch before. It's not like they have a giant budget. So now how are they going to afford a lot more meat and put that on the plate? So there will be some interesting things to watch as these are rolled out.

A (9:38)

Jane, you've been writing about science and politics and food for a long time, and you well know, because we've talked about it, that American presidents, spouses, administrations have been trying to get us to improve our diets for years. There was Michelle Obama and the vegetable garden, and this goes back a long way. Do you think RFK Jr is accomplishing more than those who came before him or has the potential to?

D (10:04)

Well, I think that he has really gotten people's attention. He has gotten people's attention on the right, and he has gotten people's attention on the left. And that is remarkable because certainly in the past, it's the language or the tone of whatever they were saying sort of was received by one side or the other more readily. So that's one thing. So I think that's important. And I think a mass movement and a mass caring about food is essential. I think that he will get more attention on things that people want to do. So if you put steak and hamburgers and cheese at the top of the pyramid, people might follow that more than they're gonna follow saying eat low fat, you know, dairy with no sugar because it's fun to follow it. Overall, I think that change just really takes time. You know, we all know that when we try to change what we eat, it's really hard. That's why New Year's resolutions rarely work out right. And I also think that this particular administration is talking the talk, but they're not actually doing a lot at this point point to make it easier to eat those whole foods or to make those whole foods more affordable. So you can tell people that ultra processed foods are bad, but if they're still the cheapest and most convenient thing at the grocery store, a lot of people are going to still buy them.

A (11:30)

That was Jane Black. She's a food journalist and she co writes the newsletter Consumed. Coming up, predictions for how we will eat in 2026, including one of my own.

C (11:54)

Support for today's show comes from Hungryroot. Breaking a habit is pretty hard. I mean really hard. But if you're looking to eat a little healthier, especially in the new year, you might want to check out Hungry Root. Hungryroot says that they are like a personal nutrition coach and shopper all in one by planning, recommending and shopping everything for you. They say that they can take care of weekly grocery shopping and recommend healthy groceries tailored to your taste, nutrition preferences and health goals. Hungryroot says that they have a healthy selection of everything from smoothies to quick lunches to kids snacks and they only source high quality meat and seafood. And now you can take advantage of this exclusive offer for a limited time. Get 40% off your first box plus a free item in every box for Life, go to hungryroot.com explained. Use the code explained. That's hungryroot.com explained code explained to get 40% off your first box and a free item of your choice for life. Support for today's show comes from Shipstation. When your company is growing fast, order fulfillment could be the thing that your success hinges on. Shipstation says they can remove some of that risk with their intelligence driven platform that brings order management, rate shopping, inventory and returns, warehouse systems and comprehensive analytics all into one place. That means no more disconnected tools in different apps. According to Shipstation, they'll save you up to 15 hours a week on fulfillment with their time saving automations. They pick the best carrier, find you the best rate, print labels in bulk and send you tracking updates. You can try shipstation free for 60 days with full access to all features. No credit card needed. Just go to shipstation.com and use the code today for 60 days free. And Shipstation says that 60 days should give you plenty of time to know exactly how much time and money you're saving on every shipment. That's shipstation.com code today. Shipstation.com code today.

A (14:13)

Support for today explained comes from Vanta. Vanta says if you run a business, you know how important it is to keep your customers trust. Frankly, says Vanta, maintaining that trust can make or break your business. Makes sense. But the more your business grows ads Vanta, the more complex your security and compliance tools can get. And left unchecked Vanta ads that can turn into business chaos. And furthermore, chaos isn't exactly something that customers trust, nor is it a great security strategy. That's where Vanta comes in, says Vanta. Vanta says you can think of them as your always on AI powered security expert who can scale with you. How do they do that? She asks. Vanta says they can automate compliance, continuously monitor your control and let you look at your entire compliance and risk ecosystem from one place so you can see the whole picture. Perhaps you're a fast growing startup like Cursor. Perhaps you're an enterprise like something called Snowflake. Vanta says they can fit into your existing workflows. You can stop spending so much time worrying about compliance and instead focus on your customers. You can get started@vanta.com explained. That's V A N T A dot com explained Vanna.com explained.

F (15:25)

I like to eat, eat, eat real food.

E (15:31)

I'm Liz Dunn. I am a food journalist. I write the newsletter Consumed and I also am a contributor to the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

A (15:39)

All right, so you wrote a piece called 7 Food Predictions for 2026. Why don't you roll through them for me now?

E (15:48)

Okay, without further ado, what comes after peak will be more protein. Sugar loaded drinks will be everywhere. The supplement market will see its biggest year ever. The grocery business will continue its V shaped reinvention. Phones will eat first. Restaurants will need to adapt to GLP1s and big food will be in big trouble.

A (16:17)

Big food will be in big trouble. All right, we're going to get there. But first let's start with protein. Peak protein will yield more protein, she says. Now listen, I will tell you honestly, I have leapt aboard the protein bandwagon with almost no information. I, I went full on protein last year. I feel good. It, it seemed to help. Why do you think that people are gonna go further double down on this?

E (16:41)

So you're definitely not alone. Protein was the mega theme of 2025. I did more reporting on protein than I thought would have ever been possible. I feel like everyone's talking about protein right now, so I thought I'd share my Go to protein sources.

C (16:56)

We're making a 92 gram protein shake.

A (16:58)

First thing in the morning.

B (16:59)

I can't hit my protein. One kilo of cottage cheese.

E (17:06)

The question that I got more than any other as the year came to a close is, what's next after protein? Like, what's the next protein? And I really feel like we're not ready for what's next yet for a few reasons. One is that the supermarket has sort of reinvent itself for protein delivery. So whether it's zero sugar yogurts or meat sticks or protein boosted waffles, like, the protein is out there and it's everywhere, calling to us. People really continue to associate protein with fitness and with strength and power. All great, positive things. And maybe most importantly, the new federal dietary guidelines up the recommended allowance of protein. And so this is just going to add fuel to the fire.

A (17:51)

All right, prediction number two. More sugar in drinks. Hardly seems possible. What do you. What do you see coming?

E (17:58)

This one does seem a little paradoxical because there is a lot of sugar hating out there. But, you know, the country is not a monolith. And so there are a really sizable number of people who are drinking and enjoying super sugary fast food and coffee chain beverages. So drinks like this have been around since the Frappuccino. But I think probably the best example of how they've really grown is a chain called Dutch Brothers. It's a coffee chain. It's one of the fastest growing restaurant chains in America. And its growth is being driven not by coffee coffee, but by these big, sweet, cold coffee drinks.

D (18:40)

I got the iced maple latte. They also have a banana bread mocha, which I've tried and love.

C (18:45)

Let's see.

E (18:46)

Ooh, they put a lot of caramel. Oh, my gosh, that is so delicious. Everybody from TACO Bell to McDonald's is experimenting with what they call beverage innovation, how to add more of these drinks to their menus. And that is for two reasons. One is, you know, consumers are really tightening their wallets, and they're looking for ways to have an indulgence without maybe ordering an entire fast food meal. And then on the business end, these drinks are really, really profitable. They're cheap to make. You can charge a fair amount for them. And so I expect to see fast food chains to continue to really push them.

A (19:29)

Okay, you say that the Supplement market is going to have a good year. Explain yourself.

E (19:35)

So supplements are a $70 billion market in the US really huge, huge market. There's a few reasons why this market has been exploding and again, why I think it will really continue to explode in 2026. One is the make America Healthy Again movement which really buys into supplements as a concept.

D (19:57)

Here's my supplement protocol as a non.

A (19:59)

Toxic girly, clearer skin, healthier hair and sharper mind.

F (20:03)

These are grass fed beef liver tablets.

E (20:06)

I like to say that it's anti big pharma pro big wellness. So there's a lot of faith in the idea that the right mix of supplements in your diet could cure really anything. I mean, you may remember Robert F. Kennedy suggesting that vitamin A was a good alternative to vaccination for measles. So that's just kind of an example of this, this type of thinking. And then, you know, social media has just been a real accelerant for this industry. If an influencer that you follow says that she swears by magnesium to help her sleep like that, that's probably really gonna encourage you to give it a try.

A (20:41)

When I see them on the Instagram, I scroll past them really fast because I know, I know I am a person who is highly suscept susceptible to the supplement market and at this moment I do not want to take part in it. What about the grocery business and its continued V shaped reinvention? What does this mean?

E (20:59)

Well, so I don't know about you Noel, but when I grew up, my family shopped at Stop and Shop which was, you know, we went once a week. It was something for everyone. Grocery store carried all the big packaged food brands.

A (21:13)

Yeah, we did. Shoprite.

E (21:14)

Yeah, exactly. The prices are good, but they're not great. But they're kind of your main street grocer. Now those mid price grocers like Kroger's or Stop and Shop or Albertsons, they're really losing share to discounters. So Walmart sells about a quarter of the groceries in America today. Costco, Aldi, Dollar General, all of those discounters are really growing as people are willing to sacrifice name brand groceries or having a deli counter or maybe a larger selection for really, really deep value. And then the other end of the V is the very premium end of the market. I'm thinking about places like Erawan. Are you familiar with Erewhon?

A (22:00)

I sure am. Never been in one, but I know what it is.

C (22:03)

This is the most expensive grocery store in the country and we're gonna go check it out. Because I'm in disbelief.

E (22:07)

Last time I got lunch at Erewhon.

D (22:09)

I accidentally spent $70.

A (22:10)

So let's see if we can do.

E (22:11)

It for less today. And Erewhon says it's going to be expanding into as many as 20 cities in the coming years. Not quite as high end as Erewhon, but also in the space there's brands like Sprouts, which is a natural foods grocer, which is also really expanding rapidly. And so that's sort of the other end of this V where you see people seeking really deep discounts on one end and then on the other end of the spectrum, splurging on sort of high end premium grocery categories.

A (22:39)

All right, so you say phones will eat first.

E (22:43)

What I mean by this is that, I mean, listen, it's not new that people choose where they eat in part based on the Instagram ability. They're taking pictures of their food or pictures of the interiors. But I was really shocked to see a recent trend report released by the online bookings platform OpenTable, which had a little tidbit that I just thought was staggering. 77% of Gen Zers and 79% of millennials said that they consider a restaurant's Instagram or TikTok worthiness when deciding whether to eat there.

A (23:17)

Huh.

D (23:18)

That's a lot.

A (23:19)

Yes, it is.

E (23:20)

That's a big factor in the decision making. I would expect to see like really sort sort of viral, appealing menu items and I guess, decor touches that really lend themselves to photography. So this is going to continue to be a really important factor in how people think about where they're dining.

A (23:36)

The other big important factor, as you, as your list points out, is GLP1s and the fact that everybody who sells food is going to have to adapt to what GLP1s are doing. So who's adapting in 2026 and how.

E (23:49)

Now if you're a restaurant and, and something like 1 in 10 or, you know, 1 in 5, potentially, eventually diners are on a drug that cuts their desire for big portions. That's something that will have to really influence how you design your menu because restaurants need to continue to try to make the same amount of revenue, even if people want smaller portions.

A (24:13)

All right? And then finally, big food is in big trouble.

E (24:18)

You know, over the years, the big packaged food companies have really been able to reformulate their way out of pretty much any diet trend. So low fat, low carb, gluten free. There's a way to make a very profitable packaged food that fits all of those trends.

C (24:37)

Today, we're going to be trying Cheerios. Protein cereal.

E (24:40)

You guys are going to want to try these. I found these protein infused waters. They're so good. What we're seeing now in terms of how people are thinking about the food they're eating is that they're really skeptical of highly processed foods. So that's a really new and different challenge. If you're a packaged food company, how do you continue to make profitable products that are not processed, which is sort of the whole engine of how you made them profitable to begin with. I think that there's going to have to be a real reckoning at these companies to figure out how they continue to, you know, perform for shareholders and, and remain profitable as. As these eating habits are changing dramatically.

A (25:23)

Can I give you my prediction?

E (25:24)

I would love your prediction.

A (25:26)

Okay. This year kiwis with the skin on are gonna become very big eating.

E (25:31)

Like as in eating kiwis?

A (25:33)

Yeah.

E (25:34)

You know my brother in law does that.

A (25:36)

I just started.

E (25:37)

It doesn't seem right, Noel.

A (25:39)

I feel very pure. It is disgusting. It is not nice. But I feel like a really good person when I do it.

E (25:47)

Well, hey, I'll buy it. I have to try.

A (25:54)

Liz Dunn Consumed is the newsletter. Liz also contributes to the NYT and the WSJ. Miles Bryan produced today's show. Jolie Myers edited, Patrick Boyd and David Tadashore engineered and Andrea Lopez Cruzado is our fact checker. The rest of the team includes Hadi Mwagdi, Peter Balinandrosen, Danielle Hewitt, Kelly Wessinger, Ariana Espuru, Dustin De Soto and Estad Herndon. Avishai Artsy and Aminah El Saadi are MGMT executive producer. Miranda Kennedy is no relation. Support from the show comes from Sean Ramis firm. He'll get space in the next life. We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder. I'm Noel King. Today Explained is distributed by WNYC and the show is a part of the Vox Media podcast network. For more visit podcasts.voxmedia.com.