Seoul searching

Summary

Today, Explained: Seoul Searching – A Deep Dive into South Korea's Democratic Turmoil

Released: January 8, 2025 | Host: Sean Rameswaram and Noel King | Contributor: Timothy Martin, Wall Street Journal

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1. Introduction to the Crisis

In the January 8, 2025 episode of Today, Explained, hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King unravel the unfolding political turmoil in South Korea following the controversial actions of President Yoon Suk Yeol. The episode, titled "Seoul Searching," provides an in-depth analysis of the impeachment proceedings, the temporary declaration of martial law, and the broader implications for South Korean democracy.

2. The Martial Law Episode

The crisis began in April 2023 when President Yoon, a former career prosecutor with no prior elected office experience, hosted South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for a state dinner with President Biden. However, the situation escalated abnormally when Yoon abruptly declared martial law on December 3, 2023.

Timothy Martin explains, "South Koreans were already asleep when President Yoon appeared on national television around 10:30 local time and said, 'I'm declaring martial law'." Yoon cited threats from North Korean communist forces and labeled opposition legislators and the National Assembly as a "den of thieves" and "anti-state forces," effectively attempting to centralize control over media, political activities, and medical services.

The immediate aftermath was chaotic. Opposition lawmakers raced to the legislative building to pass a vote to lift martial law, facing resistance from Yoon's police and military forces. Protesters, many of whom experienced South Korea's military rule firsthand, formed human shields to protect lawmakers, leading to violent confrontations and a dramatic showdown reminiscent of a political thriller.

3. The Impeachment Process and Leadership Vacuum

Despite the initial chaos, lawmakers swiftly moved to vote against Yoon's martial law declaration. Within two hours of the national address, a successful vote was held to lift martial law, signaling Yoon's hesitation to maintain authoritarian control. However, this action plunged South Korea into a leadership crisis.

At 6:04, Host 1 notes, "A lot of people may have heard about this during their workday and then gotten home, pulled on the news, and found out it had ended. May have thought, oh well, it was a temporary lapse in judgment." But the situation soon escalated with Yoon's impeachment almost immediately after lifting martial law.

Initially, the opposition sought a two-thirds majority to impeach Yoon in South Korea's unicameral 300-seat legislature. The opposition controlled 192 seats, requiring at least 200 votes for impeachment. Despite public backing, the first vote fell short, preventing Yoon’s removal. However, mounting public backlash, legal scrutiny of Yoon’s inner circle, and pressure from opposition leader Lee Jae Myung intensified the movement to remove Yoon from power.

By December 14, a second impeachment vote succeeded, with over 200 legislators supporting the motion. This led to Yoon’s presidential powers being suspended and the appointment of Prime Minister Han Deoksu as acting president. Yoon expressed willingness to transition power, stating, “I have to step away,” but left open the possibility of a political comeback.

4. Constitutional and Leadership Crisis

The impeachment of President Yoon set off a chain reaction, leading to the impeachment of the acting Prime Minister Han Deoksu by December 27. Consequently, Chae Sang Mok, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance, assumed the role of acting president and prime minister, holding multiple high-level positions simultaneously. This unprecedented concentration of power raised concerns about the stability and functionality of South Korea's government structure.

Timothy Martin highlights the precarious situation: “South Korea really plunged into a leadership crisis... we saw physical confrontations. The citizens who showed up to protest this... were summoned by the head of the opposition party... and that’s what they did.”

5. Current Status and Legal Battles

As of early January 2025, President Yoon remains impeached and is believed to be residing in the presidential residence in central Seoul, resisting arrest attempts by South Korean police. Authorities have sought an extension for the arrest warrant, but Yoon and his defense team have consistently refused to appear for questioning. An attempted arrest on January 3rd failed, demonstrating Yoon's defiant stance and the ongoing legal battles surrounding his leadership.

At 12:02, Host 1 questions, “Does all of this amount to a constitutional crisis in South Korea?” To which Martin responds affirmatively, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of the crisis: “A legal crisis, a constitutional crisis. It’s certainly a political crisis and a leadership crisis.”

6. Historical Context of South Korea's Democracy

Understanding the gravity of the current situation requires a look into South Korea's relatively young democracy. Timothy Martin provides a historical overview, noting that modern democracy in South Korea emerged in the late 1980s, following decades of Japanese occupation, the Korean War, and subsequent US-backed military rule. The last military dictator, Chun Doo Hwan, seized power through martial law in 1980, a move that left lasting scars on the nation.

Martial law's reemergence under Yoon was therefore deeply traumatizing for South Koreans, many of whom vividly remember the oppressive curfews and lack of civil liberties from historical military regimes. This historical context explains the public's intense reaction and resistance to Yoon's authoritarian measures.

7. Public Perception and Political Culture

South Korea has a long history of political upheaval, with several presidents facing legal troubles post-tenure. Martin underscores that corruption and impeachment are, unfortunately, common in South Korean politics. For instance, former Presidents Lee Myung Bak and Park Geun Hye were sentenced to lengthy prison terms for corruption and abuse of power.

Despite this, Yoon's declaration of martial law was a significant departure from typical political scandals, crossing a "red line" that surprised many South Koreans. As Host 1 reflects, "This was still shocking to South Koreans... Yoon's decision to press that button was shocking, almost inconceivable to South Korean citizens."

8. Implications for South Korea-North Korea Relations

The internal turmoil within South Korea has heightened concerns regarding its relations with North Korea. The episode highlights the delicate balance South Korea must maintain amidst its leadership crisis, especially with North Korea's increasing belligerence.

Martin explains, “The stakes are very high... the leadership vacuum that creates the high stakes for South Korea... The conservatives have wanted a very confrontational stance with the North... the opposition wants to prioritize diplomacy, engagement with Pyongyang.” The uncertainty in South Korea's leadership could influence its foreign policy and its ability to respond to North Korean provocations effectively.

9. Assessing the Resilience of South Korean Democracy

The episode concludes by assessing whether South Korean democracy can withstand the current crisis. Martin posits that while South Korea faces a significant political and constitutional challenge, the situation remains a test of its democratic foundations. Unlike some democratic crises elsewhere, South Korea's turmoil is centered around a single, publicly contentious action—martial law declaration—and the subsequent legal and political fallout.

He remains cautiously optimistic, stating, "I don’t know if it’s quite yet a democracy crisis for those reasons," suggesting that while the situation is dire, South Korea's democratic institutions may yet prevail.

10. Conclusion

"Seoul Searching" provides a comprehensive examination of South Korea's political upheaval, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the impeachment of President Yoon Suk Yeol, the resulting leadership crisis, and the broader implications for democracy in the region. Through expert insights and historical context, Today, Explained underscores the fragility and resilience of democratic institutions in the face of unprecedented challenges.

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Notable Quotes:

• Timothy Martin (02:35): “This was not a modern democracy, but something of a military dictatorship, military rule.”
• Protester (03:31): “Bring down the dictatorship, stop the martial law and arrest President Yoon.”
• Timothy Martin (10:42): “President Yoon is believed to be holed up inside the presidential residence, which is in central Seoul.”
• Host 1 (12:02): “Does all of this amount to a constitutional crisis in South Korea?”
• Timothy Martin (20:15): “This is a test of South Korean democracy... But I think it is a political crisis, a leadership crisis, and a constitutional crisis.”

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Transcript

[Host 1]

A long, long time ago In April.

[Host 2]

Of 2023, President Biden hosted South Korean President Yoon Seg Yeol for a state dinner. Normal stuff. But something very abnormal happened. President Yoon provided the entertainment. Yoons kept it abnormal this martial law. On December 3rd he took it back within hours. Didn't matter. They impeached him. And just this week South Korean police tried to arrest him. But they failed. We're gonna check in on South Korean democracy on Today Explained and remind you why it's an especially important.

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[Host 1]

You'Re listening to Today Explained.

[Host 2]

President Yoon Suk Yeol had never held elected office before he became the president of South Korea. He was a career prosecutor who is now at the center of one of the most heated political investigations in the history of South Korean democracy. Timothy Martin's been covering the story from Seoul for the Wal Street Journal. We started with the martial law of it all.

[Timothy Martin]

South Koreans were already asleep when President Yoon appeared on national television around 10:30 local time and said, I'm declaring martial law. He sensed the country was under threat by what he called North Korean communist forces. He called the opposition legislators and the national Assembly a den of thieves. He considered them to be anti state forces. The media, political activity, even medical services would have fallen under the government's control. So this is not a modern democracy, but something of a military dictatorship, military rule, and that set off a really chaotic six hours or so. There was almost immediately a rush by opposition lawmakers to try and get to the legislative building.

[Protester 1]

You can hear probably people behind me, the chanting, and people are chanting, you know, bring down the dictatorship, stop the martial law and arrest President Yoon.

[Timothy Martin]

The one way to circumvent the martial Law decree was to have lawmakers pass a vote asking the President to lift martial law. So it was a race against time. On one hand, you had President Yoon and the police and the military seeking to stop lawmakers from entering the building. On the other, you had lawmakers scaling fences, quarreling with soldiers to get inside the national assembly building to hold the vote. There were protesters, many of whom were alive during South Korea's military rule that had ended in the late 1980s. They were back on the streets protesting against the police presence there. They acted as human shields against armored vehicles. They tried to block police. We saw soldiers landing on the legislative compound in helicopters, smashing through windows. We saw physical confrontations. The citizens who showed up to protest this, it wasn't just, hey, they're newshounds. And they showed up. They were summoned by the head of the opposition party, Lee Jae Myung, who took to YouTube live and said, we got a problem on our hands. Show up on the streets and help us fend off the police. And that's what they did. Have you no shame? This to both people inside South Korea and certainly outside of it, this looked like a movie. And lawmakers within about two hours of President Yoon's national address, were able to hold the vote asking the President to lift martial law. And then we had several hours after where we were in doubt. Would President Yoon follow the direction from legislators or perhaps turn to some other method to keep it in place? So these are the wee hours of the morning. By dawn, President Yoon had said that he would agree to lift martial law after holding a cabinet meeting.

[Host 1]

Yeah, a lot of people who may have heard about this during their workday and then gotten home, turned on the news, pulled up some articles, and found out it had ended. May have thought, oh well, it was a little, you know, you know, temporary lapse in judgment. That's the end of it. But what's happened since is it's gone on and on and on. So let's talk about everything that's transpired since December 3rd, starting with, I imagine, his impeachment, Right? President Yoon is impeached almost immediately.

[Timothy Martin]

Just hours after the martial law decree was lifted, the movement to impeach President Yoon began. The opposition party said they would call a vote by the weekend. And what we saw was growing public backlash against Yoon, legal scrutiny of his inner circle that helped carry out the ill fated martial law order that included his Defense Minister who was detained. And in the build up to the first impeachment vote against Yoon, Yoon gave a couple of public addresses. He apologized, he Said that he would work with the party to run the country. And that led to the first vote. And I guess I should say that South Korea is run by a unicameral 300 seat legislature. So to impeach Yoon, they needed a 2/3 vote. So they needed 200 votes out of the 300 legislators. The opposition controls 192. So they needed at least 8 of Yoon's party to cross the line and vote for impeachment. Ultimately, there were not 200 votes cast. So there was not an impeaching. Yoon was taken off the table. But South Korea really plunged into a leadership crisis. The vast majority of South Koreans wanted to see Yoon out. So this was a very popular idea. And in the buildup to the second impeachment vote, we saw the detained Defense Minister who had resigned and had said he was the one to give Yoon the martial law idea. He tried to commit suicide. He was unsuccessful. He remains behind bars. We saw North Korea take potshots against South Korea. And they called the South a fascist dictatorship.

[Host 1]

North Korea called South Korea a fascist dictatorship.

[Timothy Martin]

Seems hypocritical of them.

[Host 1]

Nice. Nice one.

[Timothy Martin]

We saw hundreds of thousands of people outside of national assembly on a frigid December afternoon. And the vote was held on December 14. This time it worked. The opposition was able to get more than 200 votes. Members of Yoon's ruling party crossed the line. This was an anonymous vote. We don't know who exactly defied Yoon. So Yoon was up. And that meant his presidential powers were suspended. And the acting President became Prime Minister. Han Deoksu. And Yoon did not fight this or contest this. He said he would transition powers to the Prime Minister. And he signaled that, yes, I have to step away. But he left open the possibility that he might one day return to continue this journey that he had been on with the people. And South Korean presidents by law serve one five year term. So Yoon is about halfway through his five year term that should end in 2027. But now he's impeached.

[Host 2]

So how long does his number two, his prime minister last? In his place?

[Timothy Martin]

The number two lasts about two weeks.

[Host 1]

Nice.

[Timothy Martin]

By December 27, the number two was also impeached. The number three in line is a Deputy Prime Minister. And he's also Minister of Economy and Finance. And his name is Chae Sang Mok. And yeah, he's got four jobs now. He's the acting president. Acting Prime Minister. And he's got his old job of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economy and Finance. And what?

[Host 1]

When does he sleep?

[Timothy Martin]

Yeah, exactly. I wonder if he gets a pay raise during this period. So you can imagine, you go down the line. How far would it go for the opposition would stop. But it looks like the number three is acquiescing.

[Host 1]

Okay, so there's some semblance of stability for the moment. Meanwhile, what's going on with President Yoon?

[Timothy Martin]

President Yoon is believed to be holed up inside the presidential residence, which is in central Seoul. He is fighting for his political life and probably his freedom.

[Reporter 1]

Investigators say they will seek an extension to the arrest warrant for President Yoon Suk Yeol. Authorities tried and failed to arrest the impeached leader on Friday.

[Timothy Martin]

Yoon and his defense team, they've refused to show up for questioning three times. Special investigators received a detainment warrant, President Yoon and his Secret Service bodyguards and some protesters. They were able to fend off an arrest attempt on January 3rd last Friday. They consider the legal case, the criminal case against him to be unwarranted, to lack legal merit. This goes back to Yoon's point that he believes the martial law decree was simply an act of governance, not a criminal act. So we have a very defiant stance from Yoon at this moment.

[Host 1]

Does all of this amount to a constitutional crisis in South Korea? It feels like it. Is that how South Koreans feel?

[Timothy Martin]

Yes, I think it is. A legal crisis, a constitutional crisis. It's certainly a political crisis and a leadership crisis. We're not really sure who's running the country. Sort of depends on the topic that comes up. And to see South Korea in flux like this at any point would be an unfortunate sight. But this is a very critical moment for Seoul. This happens with North Korea becoming more belligerent in bellicose right on the border. We see this turnover in the US Administrations where South Korea has a deep relationship with the US And a pretty dramatic shift from Biden to Trump. And in recent days, we had this tragic plane crash where 179 people died. So this is. This is a moment when you would want firm, trustworthy leadership. And we have the exact opposite at this moment.

[Host 1]

We're going to talk more about South Korean democracy with Tim when we're back on Today Explained.

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[Timothy Martin]

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[Host 1]

Today explained is back with Timothy Martin, Korea bureau chief, at the Wall Street Journal in Seoul. Tim, can you remind our listeners how long democracy's been around in South Korea? Because it hasn't been that long.

[Timothy Martin]

No, it hasn't. The modern democracy that we see today is really quite young. Democracy came to south Korea after LeBron James was born. So it's, you know, it happened in the late 1980s. Yeah. If we were if we look at Korea over the centuries during the Joseon Dynasty, they were run by a royal family for hundreds of years. And that takes us to the Japanese occupation in 1910. And that colonial rule lasted through the end of World War II. Then geopolitics intervened and we saw the two Koreas emerge. There was the Korean War from 1950-53, and what happened after that was US backed military rule. For decades, South Korea was run by brutal military rulers who would frequently call martial law order. And the last of those leaders, just to give you a sense of how not long ago this was the last of these military dictators is a guy named Chun Doo Hwan. And he had seized power through a martial law order. This was 1980, and President Yoon would have been a young college student at that time. And this is not just a sort of dusty chapter of history. This is a lived experience by many people showing up at the office, certainly by many parents, grandparents. They vividly remember the time of curfews, government crackdowns, of a lack of civil liberties. So to see this reemerge in really any country, but particularly here, was quite traumatizing to South Koreans.

[Host 1]

And what about South Koreans views of their political leaders? Have they seen one get impeached before, or is that notion sort of beyond the pale?

[Timothy Martin]

Seeing a South Korean president with legal problems is unfortunately the norm, not the exception. If we look at South Korean leaders elected this century, one committed suicide after his family came under investigation for corruption charges.

[Reporter 2]

The former human rights lawyer took office in 2003. But state prosecutors questioned him last month about allegations that he took more than $6 million in bribes while he was president.

[Timothy Martin]

The subsequent president went to prison.

[Advertiser 1]

Former South Korean President Lee Myung Bak has been sentenced to 17 years in prison for corruption, bribery, and embezzlement.

[Timothy Martin]

President after that, went to prison.

[Reporter 3]

More prison time for the disgraced Park Geun Hye. The Seoul Central District Court sentenced the former leader park to eight years in prison for taking off book funds from the country's intelligence agency and interfering in the 2016 general elections during her administration.

[Timothy Martin]

And that takes us through 2017. And the left leaning Moon Jae in, who orchestrated diplomacy with North Korea, his family, is the target of legal scrutiny. I don't think anyone is expecting at this point that President Moon himself faces prison. Yoon. It certainly looks that way. So this century, if former President Moon Jae in avoids prison, his post presidency would be the exception, not the norm.

[Host 1]

Does that mean this latest bout of tumult and upheaval is less shocking for South Koreans? Were they sort of, you know, politically prepared for this moment and thusly, you know, will they get through it?

[Timothy Martin]

Nonetheless, this was still shocking to South Koreans that, you know, opening up prosecutions, criticizing your opposition, railroading proposals. That's all normal stuff. Literally summoning an old school move like martial law. This was not on the bingo cards for many South Koreans. So Yoon's decision to press that button was. Was shocking, almost inconceivable to South Korean citizens, given how painful that part of the country's history is and given how proud South Koreans, conservative or liberal, are about the transition to democracy and where it stands today.

[Host 1]

So you're saying that in declaring martial law, Yoon crossed a red line. And four years ago in the United States, a lot of people thought, you know, a certain political leader crossed a red line. There were hearings, there were impeachment trials, there were criminal trials. And now here we are four years later, and he's about to, you know, reenter office with the popular vote. Do you think. Do you think this is a test of South Korean democracy and South Korean democracy will once again prevail?

[Timothy Martin]

I think it certainly is a test of South Korean democracy. I will say, unlike some of the legal case and certainly the political stress of January 6th and Trump's reelection, the South Korean case is a bit more straightforward. This is centered around one action, martial law, that played out very publicly and has actually run through the contours of South Korea's democracy and constitution. Yoon declared martial law. It was voted that he lift he did it. He didn't then send tanks to mow down, you know, the national assembly lawmakers or people on the streets, you know, the investigators who sought to arrest President Yun, they didn't show up with tanks themselves and haul Yoon away. They're in effect, trying to make a legal argument to execute the arrest warrant. So, yes, I think it is a political crisis, a leadership crisis, and a constitutional crisis in South Korea. I don't know if it's quite yet a democracy crisis for those reasons. Hmm.

[Host 1]

You know, we were comparing and contrasting democracies a second ago, and I want to point out a key difference between our democracies and that is our neighbor to the north here in the United States is going through the democratic motions right now, and the neighbor to the north in South Korea is an actual dictatorship. So I just wondered, does that put undue pressure on South Korea to soldier through this moment, no pun intended, and get back to business so North Korea can stop taking cheap shots at its democracy? Is there extra pressure to prove that South Korean democracy can sustain itself?

[Timothy Martin]

The stakes are very high. And beyond cheap shots, you're worried about actual shots coming from North Korea. And I think the leadership vacuum that creates the high stakes for South Korea sort of in this flux, and I will say it is difficult to take one country's political dynamics and transpose it onto another. But the two major parties here traditionally have differed most greatly on their view of North Korea. The conservatives, Yoon's conservatives, have wanted a very confrontational stance with the North. And Yoon himself has said peace is achieved through power. And meanwhile, the opposition wants to prioritize diplomacy, engagement with Pyongyang. So beyond, you know, the leadership vacuum, creating a potential opening for North Korea to do something, there's also sort of the prospect of South Korea's leader shifting dramatically how Seoul looks at the Kim Jong Un regime. So the stakes are really high here, going back to even the original martial law decree. The threat of North Korea and how North Korea might view the situation was certainly front of mind for the US for many other countries in this confusion, might North Korea try to do something that otherwise it would not because, well, the president is commander in chief, who's actually calling the shots for the country's military. This was a question that diplomats, journalists, even people within the South Korean government were asking right in the aftermath of this martial law decree, and certainly in between impeachment, impeachment number two, and everything in between, who's actually calling the shots? And we did, actually did not get an answer for several days. President Yun is still technically commander in chief until he's ousted from office, but he's, you know, not running the country on a day to day basis. So we're in this sort of weird spot of South Korean leadership that does does give concern to people in the military.

[Host 2]

Timothy Martin, Wall Street Journal Find his [e-mail] Victoria Chamberlain made our show today for Vox.com Matthew Collette edited Laura Bullard, fact checked. Andrea Christensdotter and Rob Byers mixed. I'm Sean Ramis forum and this is TODAY Expl.