TEXAS HOLD DEMS

Summary

Today, Explained: Texas Holds Dems
Episode Release Date: August 7, 2025
Host: Sean Rameswaram and Noel King | Produced by Vox

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1. Trump's Redistricting Push in Texas

The episode opens with Sean Ramisviram highlighting former President Donald Trump's latest initiative to influence Texas politics. Trump has directed the Department of Commerce to undertake a "new and highly accurate census" that explicitly excludes individuals residing in the country illegally. This move is perceived as a strategy to redraw congressional districts favoring the Republican Party.

Sean Ramisviram [00:00]: "The man is fixated on maps... Trump wants Texas to shake up its districts to get him five extra Republican seats in the 2026 midterms."

2. Democrats' Bold Protest: Fleeing Texas

In response to Trump's redistricting efforts, Texas Democrats orchestrated a significant protest by fleeing the state, rendering the legislature unable to pass the new maps due to the absence of a quorum. Eleanor Klibanoff, Texas Tribune's law and politics reporter, provides an in-depth analysis of this unprecedented move.

Eleanor Klibanoff [02:03]: "President Trump was asking Texas to consider redrawing its congressional maps to strengthen the GOP majority in the House ahead of the 2026."

The protest saw Democrats relocating to cities like Chicago, New York, and Massachusetts, seeking support from governors who oppose Texas's maneuvers.

3. Historical Context: Previous Quorum Breaks by Texas Democrats

The panel draws parallels to past instances where Texas Democrats employed similar tactics. Notably, in 2021, Democrats left the state during a special session to protest voting restrictions, and again in 2003 to block mid-decade redistricting, leading to significant Republican gains.

Eleanor Klibanoff [08:07]: "They left the state to do a quorum break on this exact issue, which is a mid-decade redistricting."

4. Potential FBI Involvement and Legal Implications

As the state grapples with the absence of Democratic legislators, there are increasing discussions about FBI intervention. Steve Maviglio, a Democratic strategist with Forza Communications, explains the gravity of this development.

Eleanor Klibanoff [06:18]: "The latest news is that the FBI might actually get involved here."

However, both Klibanoff and Maviglio express skepticism about federal overreach, emphasizing Texas's preference for managing its affairs independently.

5. Democrats' Retaliation: Redistricting in California and Beyond

The episode shifts focus to the Democratic response, featuring an interview with Steve Maviglio, who outlines California's strategy to counteract Texas's actions. Governors like Gavin Newsom are spearheading efforts to redraw their own congressional maps through independent commissions, aiming to prevent partisan gerrymandering.

Steve Maviglio [16:48]: "It's called retaliation. Democrats have no power when it comes to the national electoral scene... We're out of power in the Senate, out of power in the House, out of power in the presidency."

Maviglio warns of a potential "redistricting arms race," where states continuously redraw boundaries to gain political advantages, leading to nationwide instability.

Steve Maviglio [18:16]: "It's going to be a series of dominoes that'll fall across the country."

6. Implications for American Democracy

The ongoing battle over redistricting raises critical questions about the integrity of American democracy. Steve Maviglio expresses concerns about the long-term effects of such partisan strategies, suggesting that while Democrats are fighting back, Republicans may ultimately gain the upper hand.

Steve Maviglio [24:15]: "Right? They're gonna pick up more seats by this. There's no doubt about it."

Both hosts express apprehension over the escalating tactics, contemplating the potential for irreparable harm to democratic principles.

Sean Ramisviram [23:11]: "Didactic harm to our democracy here with this kind of strategy?"

7. Conclusion: A Precarious Future for Gerrymandering

As Texas paves the way for aggressive redistricting, the episode underscores the fragile state of partisan politics in the United States. The strategic moves by both parties hint at an ongoing struggle that could redefine congressional representation and electoral fairness.

Steve Maviglio [25:05]: "I have great faith in the American people. The pendulum swings back. Things go in cycles. I'm an optimist."

The episode concludes by emphasizing the need for voters to remain engaged and vigilant in protecting democratic institutions amidst these turbulent times.

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Notable Quotes:

• Sean Ramisviram [00:00]: "The man is fixated on maps."
• Eleanor Klibanoff [02:28]: "We pick up five seats."
• Steve Maviglio [16:48]: "It's called retaliation."
• Steve Maviglio [24:15]: "They're gonna pick up more seats by this. There's no doubt about it."

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Final Notes:
This episode of Today, Explained provides a comprehensive overview of the escalating political maneuvers in Texas and their potential ripple effects across the United States. By examining historical precedents and current strategies, the hosts and their guests shed light on the complexities of gerrymandering and its profound impact on American democracy.

Transcript

[Sean Ramisviram]

What was the first thing you said when you like woke up this morning? Here's the first thing Donald Trump said Truth Social I have instructed our Department of Commerce to immediately begin work on a new and highly accurate census based on modern day facts and figures and importantly, using the results and information gained from the presidential election of 2024. People who are in our country illegally will not be counted in the census. Thank you for your attention to this matter. Breaking with tradition, norm busting, unprecedented. Blah blah blah. But the point is, the man is fixated on maps. For further evidence, see Texas. Trump wants Texas to shake up its districts to get him five extra Republican seats in the 2026 midterms. Texas Democrats fled the state so lawmakers can't push new maps through the legislature. And now the FBI might get involved. Messing with Texas on Today Explained from Vox Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start. Thumbtack knows homes so you don't have to don't know the difference between matte paint, finish and satin or what that clunking sound from your dryer is. With thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro, you just have to hire one. You can hire top rated pros, see price estimates and read reviews all on the app. Download today as marketing channels have multiplied, the demand for content has skyrocketed. But everyone can make content that's on brand and stands out. With Adobe Express, you don't have to be a designer to generate images, rewrite text and create effects. That's the beauty of generative AI that's commercially safe. Teams all across your business will be psyched to collaborate and create amazing presentations, videos, social posts, flyers and more. Meet Adobe Express, the quick and easy app to create on brand content. Learn [e-mail] Express business.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Today, explained Eleanor Klibanoff, law and politics reporter at the Texas Tribune. So this is something we started hearing about a couple of weeks ago. We heard that President Trump was asking Texas to consider redrawing its congressional maps to strengthen the GOP majority in the House ahead of the 2026.

[Steve Maviglio]

Texas would be the biggest one and that would be fine. Are you calling them for a complete redrawing of the congressional map? That. I don't know. Just a very simple redrawing.

[Sean Ramisviram]

We pick up five seats.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

The Texas House has like a proposed redraw of the map that tears up a bunch of districts in the Dallas area, the Houston area, the Austin area, as well as the Rio Grande Valley. And based on like our initial analysis, it Looks like if the 2026 midterms go the way the 2024 election went, they will get five additional seats out of this map.

[Sean Ramisviram]

All of these overwhelming Democratic districts currently represented by Democrats, they would become double digit Trump districts. First of all, Texas is doing what we are allowed to by the law. Democrats are freaking out because they are realizing Texas has the authority to redistrict and we're going to do so in a way that's going to lead to these additional seats that will vote Republican and they will be serving in, in the next session.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

You know, the House Committee on Redistricting held several hearings for like a state government hearing. Tons of attention.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Donald Trump is trying to rig the next election.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

A thousand people showed up in Houston.

[Steve Maviglio]

Let's show this country what it looks.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Like to stand, to fight and to win.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

People submitted comments. They were waiting hours and hours to testify.

[Sean Ramisviram]

My message today is that I care far more about protecting the cohesiveness of my community and it being properly represented than I do about trying to marginalize anyone I might disagree with.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

The committee votes the map out on a Saturday. On Sunday, they set it on the calendar for Monday. And Sunday afternoon, the Democrats skip town.

[Steve Maviglio]

Hello, everybody.

[Sean Ramisviram]

This is State Representative Arm Reynolds. I'm live on the plane. Break it on.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Hey, everyone, we just arrived here, Chicago. It is 2025, the earth breaking Forum.

[Sean Ramisviram]

We didn't start this fight. Donald Trump started it. He asked the Texas legislature to get rid of your voice. So for me, I'm not going to do that. I'm not going to go to work to silence you. Where do they go?

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Most of them went to Chicago to. Well, actually most of them went to the suburbs of Chicago. My colleague who agreed to go out when she thought it was Chicago was disappointed to learn that they were in St. Charles, Illinois, well outside Chicago. So they went there, you know where they've gotten a lot of support from Governor Pritzker.

[Sean Ramisviram]

The state of Illinois is proud to stand side by side with these brave Texas Democrats heroes.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Others went to New York where the governor there has said, you know, they will look at redistricting. I'm exploring with our leaders every option to redraw our state congressional lines as soon as possible. Some went to Massachusetts. What's happening in Texas matters to the people of Massachusetts. Just sort of fanning out to these, like, Democratic strongholds, essentially.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Do they have to go there because like, what, a Republican governor could like, extradite them back to Texas?

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Yes, essentially they have to leave the state, the House of Representatives, in their absence. Voted to issue arrest warrants for them that basically say, like, we will send state troopers to your house. Or we're, you know, we'll try to track you down. If we find you, we will bring you to the Capitol and then you cannot leave.

[Sean Ramisviram]

I have signed the civil arrest warrants.

[Steve Maviglio]

We will work with DPS to locate members.

[Sean Ramisviram]

I saw, for instance, there is one member who said that they are doing a fundraiser here in Austin tomorrow. And I've sent that fundraising letter to.

[Steve Maviglio]

DPS and said they should be invited.

[Sean Ramisviram]

To attend as well. We'll see how that goes forward.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

These are not like criminal arrest warrants. It doesn't go on their record, but it's go find them and bring them. But these warrants only extend to state lines, so, you know, they have to leave the state for fear that they will be brought back.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Of course, there is, like, a federal police force. I believe it's called the FBI. And the latest news is that the FBI might actually get involved here.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Certainly there has been some chatter about that. Our sitting senator, John Cornyn, has asked for the FBI to get involved. President Trump sort of alluded to maybe that being necessary.

[Steve Maviglio]

It almost looks like they've abandoned the state. It looks very bad.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Yeah, go ahead, please, get involved. Should the FBI get involved?

[Steve Maviglio]

Well, they may have to. They may have to. No, I know they want him back.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

That would be an extraordinary step if that were to happen. You know, I'm willing to believe that by the time this airs, it may have happened. Like, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility, but, you know, Texas is a state that pretty proudly likes to manage its own business itself and keep the federal government out of its affairs. So it would be quite the reversal to allow the federal government to arrest its lawmakers and bring them back to Texas.

[Sean Ramisviram]

This is obviously like, an extreme moment for Texas politics, but it's also not an unprecedented one. As I recall, Texas Democrats have fled the state before. Right.

[Steve Maviglio]

Nobody's seen anything like it, even though they've done it twice before.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Can you remind us under what circumstances and how it ended?

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Recently, they left the state in 2021 to protest a bill that would have further restricted voting access.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Democrats walked out of the special session.

[Steve Maviglio]

And more than 50 of them flew.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

To Washington, D.C. that was during the Biden administration. Kind of a different vibe in D.C.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Vice President Kamala Harris carved out time in her schedule to hold a roundtable with the exiled politicians.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

And so I'm here to thank you and to have a conversation with you. They Stuck it out there. They burned through one special session, but when the second special session was called, they did end up returning and ultimately it did pass. And then in 2003, members, if I.

[Steve Maviglio]

Didn'T have your attention, a quorum is not present.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

They left the state to do a quorum break on this exact issue, which is a mid decade redistricting.

[Sean Ramisviram]

And I think that the chicken Ds.

[Steve Maviglio]

That did this ought to be ashamed of themselves today. And that's what they are, is a.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Bunch of chicken Ds.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

So there is precedent for this to happen. I think what's unprecedented about this is A, the pressure for the legislation that they're protesting is coming from the federal government and B, the way Texas Republican leaders are responding with this, like very usually they just kind of like wait it out and eventually the quorum break breaks and that is not how this is going.

[Sean Ramisviram]

How did it go back in 2003 when almost the same thing happened?

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Eventually the quorum break broke and they came back and they passed the maps and that was the beginning of Republican dominance in Texas. The reason they did mid decade redistricting in 2003 at all was because they had just won the House and the Senate for the first time. So they took the opportunity, redrew maps that benefited them. And from there on out we have seen basically unfettered Republican dominance in Texas.

[Sean Ramisviram]

So the Democrats who just fled and are in Chicago and other spots, the Chicago suburbs, we should note, they know that the last time they I guess kind of gave in on this issue, they forever altered their chances of dominating Texas politics. Does that mean they're gonna hold out longer this time? Does that mean it's gonna get uglier this time?

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

If history is any guide, they leave, eventually they come back and what was gonna happen happens. I think they don't like that, this like narrative that it's inevitable if you just wait em out, they'll come back. It is also just reality, right? Like these people have jobs they have to go to and they have kids. I mean school starts here soon. Like are you gonna miss the first day of school a lot. Some of them brought their kids with them and now you're like basically a fugitive from your home state. Like you know, Texas is a part time legislature. You make $600 a month. Like you're not. You can't feed your family and like leave your company behind or your business or whatever. So there are just realities. And the truth is they don't need all of them to break the quorum break. You know, just in the last day here, we've had this sort of escalation from Governor Abbott in which he has asked the Texas Supreme Court to vacate the seats of these members who have broken quorum, which is unprecedented, like, shocking to all the legal experts that I've talked to. And so there's both sort of a. Within Texas, a constitutional crisis. And then, of course, these, like, national democracy questions about, like, who gets to decide when the rules are set and when you change the rules in the middle of the game and. And things like that.

[Sean Ramisviram]

And then what happens? Republicans aren't necessarily guaranteed these five seats, but they'll probably get them.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Right. So if the quorum break ends in one way or another, they absolutely will pass the map. We'll have. The midterms in 2026 seem very likely to go for Republicans based on 2024 performance. But 2024 was a pretty exceptional year in Texas, and most notably, that we saw Latino voters swing so far for President Trump compared to historical precedent. And a lot of these maps are based on the idea that those same voters will go for Republican candidates across the board in 2026. Now, President Trump is not on the ballot in 2026. It remains to be seen whether Latino voters are, you know, thinking, this is what I voted for, and I love this, or if there's any buyer's remorse that might sort of turn some of those seats a little bit more competitive than you would think.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Of course, it's also not guaranteed that Donald Trump gets his five Republican districts, because now that Texas is going this route, governors like Newsom in California are threatening revenge.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Right, Right. We have basically a redistricting arms race afoot now. And you've got governors in California, governors in New York and Illinois saying, maybe we'll take a look at our maps. But then you also have President Trump saying, you know, well, then I'll get Missouri to take a look at their maps. And now, suddenly, we are in a mess of a situation, and you've got even some Republican lawmakers in Congress talking about legislation to basically say, like, we have to stop this before it gets on top of us.

[Sean Ramisviram]

We shouldn't have this sort of enormous instability of constantly shuffling lines. I mean, imagine if this thing continues and state after state after state decided to redraw their lines.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

Part of the reason why Texas is why this is happening in Texas first, is that we're very large, and so you can get five seats in a way that some states don't even have five seats. But also our filing deadline is very, very early. And so this is just sort of a testing ground in Texas. Like, there's no reason to believe that with President Trump, you know, five seats will be enough and that he will stop there versus trying to get other states to redistrict as well.

[Sean Ramisviram]

You can read and support Eleanor Klibanoff's [e-mail] we're going to explore the Democrat strategy with a Democratic strategist next on Today Explained. Support for the show comes from Bombus. And today they want to talk to you about socks because it's summer and maybe it's a time when you realize that your socks are just not up to the challenges of warm weather. If I'm being real, I don't wear socks in the summer. But, you know, follow your bliss. They're talking about like running marathons and I don't do that either. So maybe you need socks. And Bombas has some. And Anisha Chtal, our colleague here at Vox, has tried the socks from Bombas.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

I do have a pair of the Bombas no show socks. Those are really great for wearing with things like ballet flats or loafers. And they really, you know, they stick onto your feet. Well, a lot of other no show socks will kind of slip off your feet throughout the day, but the Bombas ones really stay on well, which I really like and appreciate. When you're wearing something like ballet flats.

[Sean Ramisviram]

You can head over to bombas.com and use the code explained for 20% off your first purchase. That's B O m b a s.com code explained at checkout bombus.com and use the code explained. I'm Jesse David Fox, senior writer at Vulture and host of Good One, a show with the best interviews with your favorite comedians ever. And this week on our podcast, Stand up comedian Bill Burr. Yes, that Bill Burr.

[Steve Maviglio]

My new perspectives.

[Sean Ramisviram]

There's nothing wrong with being a billionaire.

[Steve Maviglio]

But if somebody is working, working 40 hours a week, 160 hours a month, and they can't make their rent, you're.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Not paying them enough money. Maybe you should just be worth 900 million. You can watch Good One every [e-mail] vulture or listen. Wherever you get your podcasts, new episodes drop on Thursdays. Have a good one.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

This week on criminal in 2008, detectives from the Minnesota Police Department were called to investigate a drive by shooting. Everything they did was recorded by a camera crew for a TV show. Those camera people are allowed to ride around in police vehicles. They're allowed to be on the scene of crime scenes that are Very active that, you know, things have just happened, people have just died. Years later, the attorney general's office would say the TV show had completely misrepresented the case. Listen to our latest episode on Criminal. Wherever you get your podcasts today explained.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Texas Democrats have fled the state. California Democrats are plotting revenge. We wanted to hear about the strategy, so we reached out to Steve Maviglio. He's a longtime Democratic strategist based in Sacramento, California. We asked Steve what the big plan was.

[Steve Maviglio]

Well, it's called retaliation. Democrats have no power when it comes to the national electoral scene. Right now, we're out of power in the Senate, out of power in the House, out of power in the presidency. And this is the one lever of power that we have remaining. Since Texas made the first move, Democrats have been in the mood to fight back Trump at every level. And you're seeing it play out here. Whatever they are doing will be neutered here in the state of California.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

It is on. Governor Newsom says California will square off with Texas, all to stop President Trump. Newsom says, from rigging the 2026 election.

[Steve Maviglio]

They'Ve triggered this response, and we're not.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Going to roll over and we're going to fight fire with fire.

[Steve Maviglio]

So the process is, he declares a special election. The legislature passes a bill with maps that goes onto the ballot for a special election in November of this year. Voters vote up or down on it, and then it goes into effect in December. We have the largest congressional delegation in the nation, and it's overwhelmingly dominated by Democrats now. But there are ways through gerrymandering that could gain us even more seats. The numbers go from five to seven, depending on who you talk to. The thought is, if Texas pull the trigger, we're going to do the same. And then you'll see probably the ripple effect across the country.

[Sean Ramisviram]

You'll do the same. And then some other Republican state, say Missouri, will retaliate against you. And then the question will be like, what can New York or Illinois do? Basically something like that.

[Steve Maviglio]

Yeah. It's going to be a series of dominoes that'll fall across the country.

[Sean Ramisviram]

So what you're saying is there might be, like a big national embrace of partisan gerrymandering. Everyone will get on board.

[Steve Maviglio]

Yeah. But, you know, you have to look at it this way. Most of the states already are. There a lot of these states, North Carolina, Indiana, a couple places where it's really hard to get more seats for one party or the other. California moved forward in a big way a few years ago by really Making an independent commission for such a big state.

[Sean Ramisviram]

We're going to take the power of withdrawing the district lines away from the politicians, from the legislators, and give it to ordinary citizens.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

And it's going to be a whole new ball game here in California. We're not going to have lawmakers drawing their own districts.

[Steve Maviglio]

And I fought against that at the time. And I'm having a lot of I told you so moments right now, because my policy at the time was, why are we doing this when the rest of the country isn't doing this? Why we as a Democratic state are basically handing over our party control over the map to independent commission when nobody else is doing it. And lo and behold, look what's happening.

[Sean Ramisviram]

But you're being rhetorical, right? Because the reason to do it is because it's Democratic. It's giving people the power to draw congressional maps instead of having it be a partisan process that only benefits one side.

[Steve Maviglio]

Right? Yeah. Amen. Right. It's a dilemma because like all the good government groups, the common causes aclus, they were all gung ho for this in California because they thought if California did this, then the rest of the country would follow. But the Republicans never did. So a couple other Democratic states did, but nobody else did it. So we're left at a disadvantage once again because Democrats did the right thing instead of the smart thing. And Democrats are trying to point out the unfairness of all this and how wrong it is, but I really don't think Donald Trump gives to squats about that. Texas Republicans and just about every Republican all over the country follows him, whatever he does these days. So, you know, I'm not optimistic about that. But I think we have to wait and see and then see what happens.

[Sean Ramisviram]

It seems like what Donald Trump cares about is the bond market. The name's Market. Bond Market. And I don't know if this is having any effect on the bond market at the moment, but a bigger issue for your side of the aisle might be that people are quite mad at the Democratic Party right now. Its approval rating is, I think, at its lowest point in, like, 35 years. Do you think their actions on this districting issue could help that? Or is this kind of fleeing the state of Texas and doing tit for tat out in California is gonna further bury them in polling?

[Steve Maviglio]

Well, the problem is we're sort of rudderless and leaderless right now, and our governor here is doing everything he can to put his face forward because he wakes up every morning, looks in the mirror and says, how can I be president? And this is his latest tool.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Do you think he's, you know, raising his profile in some way by trying to retaliate against Texas Governor Greg Abbott?

[Steve Maviglio]

Yeah, there's no doubt about it. Listen, Democrats right now, especially the ones that vote in primaries, are looking for a leader who is going to be the anti Trump. And I think Gavin Newsom is doing that. We see the Governor of New York, she's got a tough primary against a more progressive opponent and possibly a tough general election. So she's trying to get her Democratic base.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

And to think that we're going to do this with a purity test and make sure it's completely fair to everybody involved. The reason we are able to draw the lines, because we're Democrats, because the majority of people in this state selected us, elected us to be leaders.

[Steve Maviglio]

Pritzker in Illinois, same thing, wants to be president, doing all he can. Everything's on the table.

[Sean Ramisviram]

I mean, we look, we gotta fight fire with fire. They've frankly tossed the rule book out and they're just acting in an unconstitutional fashion. And what we're gonna have to do is whatever it takes to preserve democracy.

[Steve Maviglio]

And so I think you're seeing a lot of this from Democrats who realize, wow, this is the only bit of power that we actually have. Let's use it. Let's not just sit back and get rolled like we have been on so many other issues. And I think that's why you see an issue that's pretty mundane suddenly translating into a main topic of political conversation.

[Sean Ramisviram]

I think it was Mahatma Gandhi who once said, an eye for an eye leaves the whole world blind. Stephen, are you concerned that we're doing irreparable harm to our democracy here with this kind of strategy?

[Steve Maviglio]

Yeah. The message we're trying to save democracy from Trump by doing something anti democratic is one that, you know, troubles a lot of people, including myself. At least in California, the voters will have an opportunity to weigh in on that. But in many other places, like Texas, they're not. It's just being rammed through. That's what's really anti Democratic. So, yeah, it's a mixed message on both sides. But again, you know, Democrats, we want to fight fire with fire. We want an eye for an eye. And we haven't been doing that. And there's a lot of Democrats said, well, damn, it's about time you do.

[Eleanor Klibanoff]

When they go low, we go just as low.

[Sean Ramisviram]

You know, you're a strategist. So let me ask you this question. If this is tit for tat and Texas goes first and then California follows. Play this out for us like 10 steps. Who ultimately wins this fight? Which states have more seats to create out of thin air?

[Steve Maviglio]

You know, the Republicans have gamed this out. They're good at this. Right? They're gonna pick up more seats by this. There's no doubt about it.

[Sean Ramisviram]

So Democrats strategy here is to play tit for tat. But you're saying that Republicans eventually win that game.

[Steve Maviglio]

Yeah. If you go down the line and analyze every state, the potential is for Republicans to win this in the long term.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Okay, then why play the game?

[Steve Maviglio]

We have no choice. Right. That's what Newsom and some of the Democrats are saying. We cannot let them get away with and just sit back and say, okay, bleak, bleak, very bleak. But you know, when you don't win elections, this is what happens. And that's why Democrats need to get back in the business of focusing on issues that people care about and win elections.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Our producer Peter thinks that democracy's cooked. Do you think democracy's cooked?

[Steve Maviglio]

No, it's on the burners. But you know, I sadly and sometimes unbelievably have great faith in the American people. The to right the ship. I think the pendulum swings back. Things go in cycles. I'm an optimist.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Hey, hell yeah, me too.

[Steve Maviglio]

Apparently.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Peter, is it.

[Steve Maviglio]

Well, it's a game of chess. Honestly, it's not checkers. I mean, there's a lot of strategic moves that are being made on both sides here. And if one piece moves in the wrong box, game over.

[Sean Ramisviram]

Steve Maviglio, Democratic strategist with with Forza Communications in Sacramento, California. I'm Sean Ramisviram. This is TODAY Explained. As you heard, our program today was produced by Peter Balanon Rosen. It was edited by Aminah Al Asadi, fact checked by Laura Bullard and mixed by the one and only Andrea Christin's daughter, Gabrielle Burbe Avishai Artsy, Denise Guerra, Harima Wagdi, Rebecca Ibarra Miles Bryan, Devon Schwartz, Patrick Boyd, Jolie Myers, Noel King and Miranda Kennedy also make the show. And we use music by Breakmaster Cylinder. We're distributed by WNYC and we're part of the Vox Media Podcast network. You can find out more about our award winning [e-mail] Sam.