The deal with Trump's deals

Summary

Today, Explained: Episode Summary - "The Deal with Trump's Deals"

Release Date: August 5, 2025
Host(s): Sean Rameswaram and Noel King
Episode Title: The Deal with Trump's Deals

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1. Introduction: Revisiting Past Promises

The episode opens with a reflection on a prior installment titled "I Was Told There Would Be Deals," where hosts Sean Rameswaram and Brendan Murray discussed former President Donald Trump's unfulfilled promises regarding trade deals. Sean remarks, “[...] Trump promised trade deals, but we weren't really getting them” (00:00).

Since airing that episode, the political landscape has shifted dramatically as Trump, now President, has been active internationally, negotiating and securing several trade agreements.

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2. Trump's Recent Trade Deals: Progress and Promises

Kimberly Adams provides an overview of the recent developments in President Trump's trade negotiations. Starting from April 2nd, marked as the "Great Liberation Day," Trump unveiled his aggressive plan to reshape the global economy through substantial tariff reforms intended to bolster American manufacturing and reduce the trade deficit.

Key Achievements:

• European Union (EU): Reached a deal that imposes a 15% tariff on most goods from the EU. In return, the EU has pledged to invest $600 billion in the U.S., including significant investments in American military equipment. Additionally, U.S. cars and agricultural products will gain increased access to EU markets. As Adams notes, “[...] the EU accounts for almost 20% of all US goods trade” (03:42).

• United Kingdom (UK): The U.K. has agreed to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods and provide $350 billion in investments to U.S.-owned businesses. Washington reciprocates by lowering tariffs on UK goods, specifically reducing the automotive tariff from 25% to 10%.

• Japan and South Korea: Both nations have entered into agreements that mirror the terms set with the EU and the UK, fostering a more favorable trade environment for American products.

• Vietnam: While President Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on his platform Truth Social (04:53), details remain sparse, leaving the economic implications uncertain.

Sean questions the genuine impact of these deals, prompting Adams to highlight the lack of detailed information: “So it's hard to tell what exactly the economic impact is going to be” (05:26).

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3. Global Reactions and Retaliations

The episode delves into the international response to Trump's trade policies. While several major trading partners have acquiesced to avoid severe economic repercussions, the sentiment remains largely one of reluctant acceptance rather than enthusiastic endorsement.

Notable Points:

• Acceptance Under Duress: Adams explains, “[...] acceptance of this is how it has to be if you want to avoid a trade war” (05:54). Countries prefer the certainty of moderate tariffs over the uncertainty of extremely high tariffs (30-40%) that could devastate export industries.

• Retaliatory Measures: Despite most nations agreeing to the new terms, Canada and China have initiated their own tariffs in response. China declared a 34% tariff on all U.S. goods effective April 10 (07:44), while Canada imposed tariffs on nearly $30 billion worth of U.S. goods (08:05).

• Geopolitical Tensions: Trump has extended a 90-day tariff extension for Mexico while imposing a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the existing U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement. Additionally, Trump's interventions in Brazil and India intertwine trade with political and geopolitical agendas, threatening severe tariffs contingent on non-traditional trade issues (08:35).

Kimberly concludes that while Trump is gaining victories in negotiations, the lack of detailed, long-term commitments casts doubt on the sustainability and true efficacy of these trade deals.

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4. Economic Impact: Market Reactions and Manufacturing Declines

Sean points out that despite the announcement of new trade deals, the immediate market reactions were negative, with major stock markets plunging (02:57). Concurrently, declines in U.S. government bonds and the U.S. dollar indicate broader economic uncertainties.

Adams elaborates on the undercurrents affecting the U.S. economy:

• Tariff-Induced Uncertainty: Federal Reserve surveys reveal that manufacturers are struggling with increased costs and diminished profit margins due to high tariffs, leading to concerns about sustained economic growth and potential consumer impact.

• Manufacturing Employment Decline: Contrary to Trump's claims that tariffs would rejuvenate American manufacturing, Adams highlights three consecutive months of declining manufacturing employment, undermining the administration's narrative that tariffs are beneficial for job growth (12:42).

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5. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Controversy: Undermining Data Integrity

A significant portion of the episode focuses on President Trump's decision to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) following disappointing jobs reports.

Key Developments:

• Firing of BLS Commissioner: After the latest jobs report showed a slower-than-expected increase in employment (19:08), Trump dismissed the BLS head, alleging data manipulation. He asserted, “These numbers must be fair and accurate” (18:22), though Kimberly argues that the move damages the credibility of the statistical system and aligns with authoritarian practices.

• Revelation of Revisions: The jobs numbers underwent significant downward revisions for May and June, adding over 250,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. Adams states, “These revisions... fundamentally changed the story of what the labor market looked like” (20:17).

• Economic and Policy Implications: The undermining of BLS data raises concerns about the reliability of economic indicators crucial for policy decisions, including those by the Federal Reserve. Megan Rapinoe emphasizes, “These data are essential for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions” (23:21).

• Potential Long-Term Consequences: The attack on the BLS may lead to decreased trust in economic data, similar to skepticism seen with Chinese economic reports, thereby complicating both domestic and international economic planning (27:07).

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6. Future Outlook: Stability and Trust in Economic Data

The episode concludes by pondering the future ramifications of Trump's aggressive trade policies and his administration's approach to economic data management.

• Trust in Data: Megan Rapinoe underscores the importance of unbiased economic data, warning that interference could erode confidence in the U.S.'s economic indicators on a global scale.

• Federal Reserve's Position: The potential manipulation or mistrust in data could influence Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates, affecting inflation and employment targets.

• Ongoing Trade Negotiations: With a mix of deal-making and retaliatory measures, the global trade environment remains volatile, leaving uncertainty about long-term economic growth and international relationships.

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Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• Sean Rameswaram (00:00): “Trump promised trade deals, but we weren't really getting them.”

• Kimberly Adams (02:24): “The president laid out his plan for reshaping the global economy on a giant poster board. Very simple.”

• Kimberly Adams (06:42): “Acceptance of this is how it has to be if you want to avoid a trade war with President Trump.”

• Kimberly Adams (12:39): “If the Fed had the information on Wednesday that they ended up getting on Friday, would that have changed their decision? Maybe.”

• Megan Rapinoe (23:21): “These data are essential for businesses and policymakers to make informed decisions.”

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Conclusion

"The Deal with Trump's Deals" provides an in-depth examination of President Trump's recent trade negotiations and their multifaceted impact on the U.S. and global economies. While Trump has ostensibly secured pivotal trade agreements, the episode highlights enduring challenges, including retaliatory tariffs, declining manufacturing employment, and alarming threats to the integrity of essential economic data. The episode underscores the precarious balance between immediate trade victories and the long-term health and trustworthiness of the U.S. economic framework.

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For a detailed exploration of these topics and more, listen to the full episode of "Today, Explained" on the Vox Media Podcast Network.

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Timestamps

<a name="timestamp-00:00"></a>[00:00]
<a name="timestamp-03:42"></a>[03:42]
<a name="timestamp-04:53"></a>[04:53]
<a name="timestamp-05:26"></a>[05:26]
<a name="timestamp-05:54"></a>[05:54]
<a name="timestamp-07:44"></a>[07:44]
<a name="timestamp-08:05"></a>[08:05]
<a name="timestamp-12:42"></a>[12:42]
<a name="timestamp-18:22"></a>[18:22]
<a name="timestamp-19:08"></a>[19:08]
<a name="timestamp-20:17"></a>[20:17]
<a name="timestamp-23:21"></a>[23:21]
<a name="timestamp-27:07"></a>[27:07]

Transcript

[Sean Ramisfur]

It was just under a month ago in July 2025 that we here at Today explained brought you an episode titled I was told there would be deals. The gist of the thing was Trump promised trade deals, but we weren't really getting them. You know how it goes, Taco. Trump always chickens out, et cetera.

[Brendan Murray]

And Trump is calling that a deal.

[Sean Ramisfur]

But it's not really anything that looks like a free trade deal as everyone else understands it. But to be fair, since we made that show, the President of the United States has had a busy month out on the road.

[Kimberly Adams]

I never had the privilege of to his island.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Okay, so he never made it to the island, but he did spend some time in Europe and he walked away with a deal. He's actually got deals with some of our most important trade partners around the world. And that's why today's show is titled the Deal with Trump's Deals. We're going to take a look at what he's been up to. He's bringing in revenue, but long term, is it going to be good for the United States? Be careful if you suggest it won't be though, because that might get you fired. She's just a girl and she's fired.

[Megan Rapinoe]

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[Sean Ramisfur]

Today is gonna be explained to you today explained from Vox. Sean Ramisfur I'm joined by Bloomberg's Brendan Murray who spoke to us about Trump's deals from the floor of the Bloomberg newsroom in London, England.

[Kimberly Adams]

It seems like a long time ago, but it started around April 2nd.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Thank you very much.

[Kimberly Adams]

And that was the great liberation day, the announcement in the rose garden of the White House the day America's destiny was reclaimed and the day that we began to make America wealthy again. The president laid out his plan for reshaping the global economy on a giant poster board. Very simple. Can't get any simpler than that. With a bunch of tariff rates that freaked Wall street out. President Trump's tariffs sparking a huge sell off today, sending all three major markets plunging. The trading day there, you're hearing the bell ringing.

[Sean Ramisfur]

We're still. What's stunning though, is that we are also seeing declines in US government bonds and the US dollar all at the same time.

[Kimberly Adams]

And the White House had to quickly scramble and back out of those plans. So then the deadline became August 1, and the White House couldn't get all of its paperwork together to make that happen. So now we're staring down another deadline for this Thursday of all of these tariffs taking effect. And Wall street is recalibrating how this is going to affect the going forward now.

[Sean Ramisfur]

And so how much of the world has gotten their deals in under deadline? Who's still on the outs? What's the sort of general picture here?

[Kimberly Adams]

So we've got about eight or ten of the US's largest trading partners that have announced deals. The European Union is the biggest. The European Union accounts for about almost 20% of all US goods trade. So that is 27 nations that the US has had pretty much free trade with over the past several decades. US President Donald Trump and European Union chief Ursula von der Leyen have reached.

[Sean Ramisfur]

A trade deal during talks in Scotland.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Agreed to set a 15% tariff on most goods.

[Kimberly Adams]

Well, Mr. Trump said the EU would boost its investment in the US by $600 billion, including a vast investment in American military equipment. While US cars and agricultural products, he said, will be more widely available in EU markets. There have been a couple of other of the larger trading partners that have done deals. Japan, South Korea. The United Kingdom was really the first one. Under the deal, Japanese goods will now.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Be facing tariffs of some 15%.

[Kimberly Adams]

The deal is that South Korea will.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Give to The United States $350 billion.

[Kimberly Adams]

For investments owned and controlled by the United States. Washington will lower tariffs on many UK goods. That includes a 10% levy on cars, compared with the 25% imposed on other nations. And then you have some other deals that have been announced but haven't really been confirmed on the other side. Vietnam was one of those ones. The President posted on Truth Social that he had to deal with Vietnam. Truth Social I just made a trade deal with Vietnam.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Details to follow.

[Kimberly Adams]

So you've Got a few announcements and then you've got some squishier things that haven't really produced many details. And so it's hard to tell what exactly the economic impact is going to be.

[Sean Ramisfur]

And how. All of these closer trading partners of ours, Japan, eu, South Korea, UK I guess Vietnam hasn't said anything yet. How do they feel about these deals? Are they sounding positive?

[Kimberly Adams]

I think the main reaction is just reluctance. Acceptance of this is how it has to be if you want to avoid a trade war with President Trump. He has threatened to essentially cripple these economies and their export industries if they don't go along with this. So a lot of them feel like this is the least worst deal we could get. And it's better to have the certainty of the this now than this ongoing uncertainty of the really high tariffs that many of them would have faced. 15% is a high tariff, and if you were looking at this compared to a year ago. But he has threatened countries with 30 and 40% which would essentially destroy a lot of those industries that depend on an American consumer.

[Sean Ramisfur]

It feels like a lot of the world leaders who are signing deals are also trying to sort of heap praise on Donald Trump. You know, the prime Minister of the United Kingdom brought him a letter from King Charles, I think is what he's going by now. Is that normal?

[Kimberly Adams]

It seems to be the new normal. We also heard European Commission President Ursa von der LEYEN say, yes, Mr. President, this is the biggest deal of them all.

[Megan Rapinoe]

It's a huge deal with tough negotiations.

[Kimberly Adams]

And she said some pretty interesting things about how we're going along with this because trade needs rebalancing. And rebalancing is exactly the phrase that Trump administrations would say needs to happen in a trading relationship like the European Union or China or others.

[Sean Ramisfur]

So a lot of world leaders giving Trump the win, so to speak. Who's resisting? Who's fighting back?

[Kimberly Adams]

Well, there have been only two countries that have technically retaliated with tariffs of their own, and that's Canada and China. China announced this morning that from next week they will be imposing 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods from April 10. Canada's retaliatory tariffs on nearly $30 billion.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Of U.S. goods are in effect as of today.

[Kimberly Adams]

And that has aggravated the situation with Canada, especially if you look at how President Trump has. He just granted Mexico a 90 day extension, but he's slapping a 35% tariff on Canadian goods that aren't subject to the U.S. mexico, Canada trade agreement. So antagonism seems to only bring More pain in this arena from President Trump.

[Sean Ramisfur]

It also feels like things are tense with Brazil and India. Are they worth talking about here?

[Kimberly Adams]

Yeah, absolutely. For different reasons, really. Because President Trump has brought non trade issues into these two relationships. First with Brazil, President Trump, in the.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Latest of a series of new letters.

[Kimberly Adams]

To trading partners, has threatened a 50% tariff on Brazil. The measures are largely due to Trump's anger at the prosecution of his ally.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Former President Jair Bolsonaro, on charges of.

[Kimberly Adams]

Plotting to overthrow the election of Lula in early 2023. With regards to India, President Trump has also brought geopolitics into the equation and said to India, if you don't stop buying Russian energy, then there'll be penalties for you. So that's sort of bringing the Russia war in Ukraine into the picture and really using tariffs as the leverage point for foreign policy, not just economic policy.

[Sean Ramisfur]

But lately it feels like there are more deals than, you know, fights. Does it feel like he's winning right now?

[Kimberly Adams]

He's definitely winning in the public relations department. If you can announce a deal with the European Union or with Japan and South Korea, these big US Trading partners that have been doing lots of trade with the US for decades. That does sound like a win. But it's a little like you and your partner going to your parents and your future in laws and saying, hey, we're getting married. And they look at you and they go, well, where's the ring, When's the date and where's the city? And you don't have answers. They start to question whether you're really serious. So what we don't have right now are specifics that show both sides in all of these are serious about it and whether are these just promises to get Trump off your back in the short term, or are they actual long term economic agreements that are going to change the trading relationship in a way that Trump wants, and that's to have a smaller trade deficit with these countries individually.

[Sean Ramisfur]

It doesn't seem like Americans are freaking out the way they did back in April. How come?

[Kimberly Adams]

Well, it's hard to see how the tariffs are flowing through into consumer spending or behavior. But if you go to Federal Reserve surveys of businesses and all the Federal Reserve districts do these surveys on manufacturers and you read the notes in there that these manufacturers relay to the Federal Reserve, they say the tariffs are killing us, the uncertainty is killing us. I can't pay my bills this month because suddenly it's 30% more expensive. So the anecdotal evidence that we can see is pretty conclusive. That these tariffs are hurting businesses profit margins. And economists would tell you it's just a matter of time before that feeds through to consumers.

[Sean Ramisfur]

And the other thing we have is the job numbers. And that has turned into its own fight.

[Kimberly Adams]

Yeah, exactly. So the jobs figures were a surprise. And of course, those numbers and all the revisions tied to them led to the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics person who's in charge of those.

[Megan Rapinoe]

On Friday, Trump fired the former commissioner after a weaker than expected jobs report. Now, the president claimed that that report was rigged.

[Sean Ramisfur]

A little bit of backgr on macintar.

[Megan Rapinoe]

For yes, she was appointed to this position by President Biden in January 2024.

[Brendan Murray]

But she's also a labor economist who served over 20 years in the federal government.

[Kimberly Adams]

On the monthly jobs report going forward, why should anyone trust the numbers? And if you are, you're right.

[Sean Ramisfur]

No, you're right. Why should anybody trust numbers?

[Kimberly Adams]

What was in those numbers as it relates to tariffs, though, was another decline in manufacturing employment. President Trump will tell you, and he says regularly, that he's not in this to help Wall Street. He's in this to help grow the manufacturing base into this global age of a renaissance of American factory might. And what we've seen is three straight months of declines in manufacturing employment. So that is working against his arguments that tariffs are good. Tariffs will help bring jobs home, reassure this employment that's gone overseas under previous presidents. But he's got a real problem on his hands if that if that manufacturing employment number doesn't turn around and turn around soon.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Brennan Murray, Global Trade Editor, Bloomberg.com Firing people over facts When TODAY Explained is back.

[Brendan Murray]

Support for today's show comes from Vanta. If your mind can be blown by compliance autom, let Vanta blow your mind, says Vanta. Vanta is a trust management platform that says they help businesses automate security and compliance. Demonstrating trust to customers and prospects is critical to closing deals. I wouldn't know that's according to Vanta. But it can also be costly and complicated. Vanta says they help companies of all sizes, large, small, medium get compliant fast and stay that way with industry leading, AI, automation and that continuous monitoring you do know so well. So whether you're a startup tackling your first SoC2 or ISO 27001 or an enterprise managing vendor risk, Vanta says their trust management platform makes it quicker, easier and more scalable. Vanta also says they help you complete security questionnaires up to five times faster, which could help you win those bigger deals sooner. You can visit vanta.com explain to sign up for a free demo today. That's V A n T a dot com expl Support for Today Explained comes from Fireflies. Your team just had a fantastic meeting. Everybody was vibing, everybody was on the same page. Unfortunately, no one took notes. It happens all the time. Firefly says they're an AI teammate that transcribes, summarizes and analyzes your conversations so you can get the most out of every meeting. Fireflies says they help you understand what was said, generate personalized notes, find information, take action on next steps, develop workflows, create internal efficiencies. Firefly says they offer powerful collaboration tools such as real time and up to date web search directly in your meetings, shareable sound bites, timestamped notes, bookmarks that highlight those important moments in meetings and to keep your information secure, Firefly says they let you control who can view and share those meeting notes and you can pick where to store them. Right now, when you sign up for a yearly Firefly subscription, you get your first two months free. You can go to Fireflies AI explained. That's two months free when you go to Fireflies AI explained. What is that? What is that? What is that? That's Fireflies AI Explained.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Support for Today Explained comes from Upwork. Having a small business means doing a lot of things yourself, but sometimes it really helps to have an extra pair of hair hands. Upwork says they provide an extra pair of hands. They help companies find great and trusted freelance talent, which gives them more flexibility to get things done. Upwork says they give you access to a global marketplace filled with top talent in it, web development, AI, design, admin, support, marketing, and more. Upwork says they make posting a job super simple and there's no cost. To join, you can browse freelancer profiles, get help drafting a job post, or even book a consultation. You can go to Upwork.com right now and post your job for free. That is Upwork.com to post your job for free and connect with top talent ready to help your business grow. That's Upwork.com Upwork.com Mr. President, do you.

[Kimberly Adams]

Have any reaction to Today Explain being.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Named the best news show?

[Kimberly Adams]

Wow, I didn't know that. I just. You're telling me now for the first time.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Hey, I'm Kimberly Adams. I'm the senior Washington correspondent from Marketplace and also the host of the Marketplace podcast Make Me Smart.

[Sean Ramisfur]

The president fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics because he didn't like the labor statistics.

[Kimberly Adams]

Truth Social. We need accurate jobs numbers I have directed my team to fire this Biden political appointee immediately. She will be replaced with someone much.

[Sean Ramisfur]

More competent and qualified.

[Kimberly Adams]

Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate.

[Sean Ramisfur]

They can't be manipulated for political purposes. Why did the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics make up the statistics?

[Megan Rapinoe]

The head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics did not make up the labor statistics. It's literally shooting the messenger. The President of the United States was complaining on Truth, Social, and elsewhere that the reason for firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics has to do with the number and the scale of revisions.

[Kimberly Adams]

And if you remember, just before the election, this woman came out with these.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Phenomenal numbers on Biden's economy. Phenomenal numbers. And then right after the election, they.

[Kimberly Adams]

Announced that those numbers were wrong. And that's what they did the other day. So it's a scam, in my opinion.

[Megan Rapinoe]

So the jobs numbers are one thing, that they came in lower than expected last week, and they indicate that there's not the same kind of robust labor market that we thought we'd had over the last couple of months. But what drew even more attention were the revisions to the numbers from previous months. And they were pretty drastic revisions that shocked a lot of people. And these revisions tell us that the labor market we thought we had the last few months that seemed to be okay, seemed to be pretty resilient against the tariffs and some of the other changes President Trump and his administration were making in the economy. It wasn't actually as resilient as we thought. A stunning government report showed hiring had slowed down significantly over the past three months, with the US adding just 73,000 new jobs in July. May, and June were revised downward by over 250,000.

[Kimberly Adams]

Asked if there was evidence the numbers.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Were rigged, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said, the revisions are the evidence. I should say labor market numbers get revised all the time. GDP numbers get revised all the time to pick whatever economic indicator you want. But these revisions in particular were, a, really large and B, just fundamentally changed the story of what the labor market looked like over the last couple of months. So not only did they tell us that there was less hiring than we thought there was, it also told us that the labor market itself kind of shrank, that there was a lower labor force participation rate. And a lot of people are blaming that on the crackdown on immigration. And it also told us that in the main area where there was a lot of job growth, which is like healthcare, for example, if not for that sort of tariff and economically resilient sector, of the healthcare sector and all the job growth there, we would have had almost no job growth at all.

[Sean Ramisfur]

But now that Donald Trump has fired the commissioner in charge of these job report numbers, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it'll all be okay again by the next jobs report in September. We all win.

[Megan Rapinoe]

I imagine that may be what the president wants to believe, that that will give numbers that are a bit more appealing most of the the vast majority slash. Almost all of the economists I talk to say that is absolutely not no reason whatsoever to believe that the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, much less the Bureau of Labor Statistics itself, is manipulating the numbers or that the numbers are rigged. As the president said, there's been a huge backlash from the community of people that follow this stuff very closely about this firing.

[Kimberly Adams]

I don't think there's any grounds at all for this, for this firing. And it really hurts the statistical system. It undermines credibility and bls, supposedly this has been Anna Republic. This is I wrote about it.

[Sean Ramisfur]

I called it Caracas on the Potomac.

[Kimberly Adams]

This is the kind of thing we only see in authoritarian regimes.

[Megan Rapinoe]

It's outrageous, but it's not surprising. It is consistent with a practice of hating the truth and to the contrary, of what the president might want by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and potentially putting in someone who might be a little bit more amenable to the president's narrative around economic data that has the potential to actually undermine economic data in the United States and make it less trustworthy, both for businesses here in the US as well as in sort of the global economy.

[Sean Ramisfur]

And why does that matter? I mean, for people who don't pay attention to these numbers, why does trustworthy data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics matter to this country and to the world?

[Megan Rapinoe]

Because lots of different businesses and countries and even individuals use this data to make decisions about how they're going to manage their own money, how they're going to manage their own businesses, and how they are going to plan for the future. So, for example, if you know that the unemployment rate is 4.2%, which is what the numbers came in at last week, you can say that's a pretty low unemployment rate. And that that means that most of the people out there who want jobs have jobs. And if we're going to hire, we're going to need to position ourselves well in the market to compete with the relatively few workers who are out there looking for a job. This gets into one of the main reasons that this is on the agenda for a lot of folks, which is the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve has two mandates, full employment and stable prices. Full employment basically means, as near as you can get to it, low unemployment rates. Stable prices relatively equates to a more or less 2% inflation rate. We are still trending a little bit above 2% inflation. But when the Fed met last week, which was before these jobs numbers came out, the unemployment situation looked pretty good. So they didn't have much of an incentive to do anything about interest rates because inflation was still running a bit high. Unemployment looked fine, so no big deal. So let's leave interest rates alone until inflation cools down a bit more. If the Fed had the information on Wednesday that they ended up getting on Friday, would that have changed their decision? Maybe.

[Sean Ramisfur]

You know, the last time you were on this show, Kimberly, you'll recall that you were here to talk about the Fed.

[Megan Rapinoe]

I know. The Fed. The most exciting thing in the world.

[Sean Ramisfur]

It sounded for weeks now like Trump has been itching to fire Jerome Powell, the head of the Fed. Of course, they had that cute little.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Who he hired.

[Sean Ramisfur]

Who he hired. Thank you. Of course they had that cute little photo op where they got to wear hard hats. But Tim Scott didn't.

[Kimberly Adams]

Nice to take these off every once in a while when we're not under too much danger. So any questions?

[Sean Ramisfur]

He didn't end up firing Powell, but then he fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. So are these economists you're talking to afraid now that this might not be the end of Trump getting rid of people who seem to disagree with his imaginary vision of what the numbers should be?

[Megan Rapinoe]

You're absolutely right. This is definitely creating an environment where folks are worried that even if people at the Bureau of Labor Statistics or any of these other federal statistical agencies are still putting their heads down doing the work, churning out the data without fear or favor, that kind of hanging over their head that if they release a report the President doesn't like, that they might lose their job? Even if they still do the work, other people and other entities might look at it and say, well, can it really be true with that hanging over their head? You can look at a country like China, which releases economic data about the performance of its economy all the time. And you'll always hear folks say, well, take it with a grain of salt, because the Chinese Communist Party likes to mess with the numbers and this, that, and the other. And so that means lots of folks have to jump through all of these additional hoops to try to figure out what's actually going on in the Chinese economy. This is one of the biggest economies in the world, right? So what happens if we end up in the same boat?

[Sean Ramisfur]

Kimberly Adams, as mentioned, she's got her own show called Make Me Smart. She also talks about this there. Go listen. Thanks to Rebecca Ibarra for making the show. Thanks to Jolie Myers for editing. Thanks to Laura Bullard for fact checking. Thanks to Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christenstatur for mixing. Thanks to Rachel Wolfe at the Wall Street Journal. And thank you for listening to Today Explained. You can do so ad free by going to vox.commembers and dropping five bucks a month. Thanks.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Hi, I'm Teffy. Maybe you've seen me on TikTok or TV or interviewing celebrities on the red carpet.

[Brendan Murray]

But before all that, I was just another girl running late to her desk job, transferring calls, ordering printer ink.

[Megan Rapinoe]

I don't miss that. But I do miss not working at work, gossiping with my coworkers about celebrities. What's the latest with Bieber? Where's Britney?

[Brendan Murray]

And which Jonas brother is which? That's what I want my new podcast to feel like. Like you and I are work besties.

[Megan Rapinoe]

We'll chat about celebrities we're obsessed with. How could you be registered to vote.

[Brendan Murray]

And not know who Jennifer Aniston is?

[Megan Rapinoe]

Look up their star charts. Sagittarius and a Capricorn. They do clash and have so much fun avoiding real work together.

[Brendan Murray]

I'm having a of lot a silly.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Goose of a time.

[Brendan Murray]

Teffy runs, Teffy laughs.

[Megan Rapinoe]

Teffy overshares. Teffy explains. But most of all, Teffy talks from me. The Cut and Vox Media podcast. This is Teffy Talks. Let's go.