The gas price vote

Summary

Podcast Summary: "The gas price vote"

Today, Explained (Vox)
Date: August 8, 2026
Host: Estad Herndon
Guest: Dr. Julian Zelizer (historian and economist)
Setting: On-the-ground interviews in Allentown, PA; historical perspective from NYC

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Main Theme

The episode investigates the impact of persistently high gas prices—hovering around $4 per gallon amid the US war with Iran—on American voters, exploring who gets blamed, how these prices influence midterm elections, and what history tells us about fuel, politics, and presidential power. Blending on-the-ground voices from Allentown, PA (a critical swing district), with in-depth context from historian Dr. Julian Zelizer, the episode examines the unique political power of gas prices in the US.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Summer of Discontent: Gas Prices and Public Sentiment

(00:00–02:39)

• Gas prices have become a dominant topic nationwide, with Americans from all walks of life expressing frustration.
• Many residents specifically blame President Trump and the current administration for rising costs, with less certainty over which political party offers a solution.
• The war with Iran is identified as the primary cause of the recent surge at the pump.
• For Pennsylvania voters (7th congressional district), essential expenses like gas are factored directly into personal finances and voting decisions.

Quote:

"If you have one issue you will want politicians to focus on, what would it be? Gas prices. Gas prices."
—Estad Herndon (00:15)

2. Who’s to Blame and What’s at Stake?

(02:39–05:56)

• Blame largely falls on the President and the government, even among those who previously supported Trump.
• Residents voice broken promises regarding lower costs and express frustration over the prioritization of everyday economic realities.
• High gas prices directly affect lifestyles—trimming vacations, limiting day-to-day driving, and cutting into household budgets.
• There’s palpable cynicism about politicians’ ability or willingness to address the issue, with skepticism extending beyond party lines.

Notable Quotes:

"I blame this government for everything."
—Local Resident 1 (03:53)

"I voted for him with his promises to American people, and I think he's let us down."
—Local Resident 3, on Trump (04:16)

"Talk is cheap, but let's do something about it."
—Local Resident 3 (05:22)

3. The War, the Economy, and the Voter’s Dilemma

(05:56–07:42)

• Some residents acknowledge the war in Iran as the reason for higher prices but remain fixated on day-to-day economic concerns.
• In regions lacking robust public transit, driving is non-negotiable despite rising fuel costs.
• Disillusionment isn’t just with a single leader but with a broader political system seen as not prioritizing “the little guy.”

Notable Quote:

"He's a complete fraud...the jig is up and we're clearly not being represented by somebody who has our best interests."
—Local Resident 1, on Trump (07:42)

4. Political Identity, Representation, and Trust

(07:42–09:48)

• Distrust of both parties is voiced; some look past party affiliation to campaign finance and lobbyists as indicators of politicians' priorities.
• One resident is willing to endure higher prices for national security goals (i.e., full resolution in Iran), but acknowledges most Americans have a breaking point, especially if prices remain high indefinitely.

Notable Quotes:

"It doesn't matter if they're a Democrat or Republican, if they're taking money from lobbies...who is their campaign financing coming from?"
—Local Resident 1 (08:31)

"As long as it takes, we need to...make sure Iran doesn't make a nuclear bomb...this president's doing that."
—Local Resident 4 (09:48)

5. How Gas Prices Became America’s Political Lightning Rod

(14:24–19:20) — Interview with Dr. Julian Zelizer

• The issue of gas prices as a political weapon began in the 1970s with the OPEC oil embargo and Iranian revolution, creating a precedent for public fury and political fallout.
• Gas represents not only an essential commodity but also a symbol of American freedom and identity.
• The price at the pump is uniquely visible, unlike most other consumer costs—its impact is instantaneous and universally understood.

Notable Quotes:

"The price of gas becomes a huge political issue for Americans. It affects presidents, it affects Congress, and it becomes a manifestation...of the problems facing the country."
—Julian Zelizer (15:02)

"It's a price you just see. It's just very visible when it goes up or down more than groceries even."
—Julian Zelizer (19:20)

6. Presidential Limits, Blame, and Political Strategy

(17:21–22:52)

• Presidents historically attempt to address gas prices via legislation, strategic reserves, or conservation—but with limited success.
• Blame falls on sitting presidents regardless of their real control over global oil markets.
• Contemporary parallels highlight Trump’s struggle to distance himself from the political liability of $4 gas, similar to Biden in 2022.
• A strategy of ignoring the issue or minimizing pain rarely works, as voters are unmoved by long-term arguments when confronted with day-to-day costs.

Notable Quotes:

"There's really not much presidents can do...presidents just wait it out and hope the timing works in their favor."
—Julian Zelizer (17:45)

"Trump trying to not recognize what people are struggling with...is just not a winning strategy."
—Julian Zelizer (22:15)

7. The Political Calculus for Midterms and Beyond

(22:52–26:07)

• If high prices persist, the GOP faces potential electoral devastation in swing districts, though nothing is preordained.
• Democrats risk backlash too, as voters may lean toward broad anti-incumbent sentiment—“throw the bums out.”
• Both parties are challenged to provide credible, longer-term solutions beyond blaming each other—renewables, efficiency, and energy independence are suggested as possible offerings.

Memorable Exchange:

"Any kind of fluctuation downward, we don't know where it will be, undercuts that argument...anger about the economy can manifest itself in a throw the bums out mentality for voters."
—Julian Zelizer (23:51)

8. Presidential Power and Its Limits in the Trump Era

(25:27–27:21)

• Despite Trump’s broad use of executive power, structural constraints—like Congress, the courts, and international markets—remain.
• A president’s ability to control global oil prices, or quickly end a war, is limited, no matter how dominant their domestic political role.
• Trump’s power also relies on unified support from Congressional Republicans, which could change in a challenging midterm environment.

Notable Quotes:

"He has a lot of bluster. He has controlled what is happening...but he can't bring this to an end. In some ways, it reflects the limitations of the power that he might not see affect him as much as others."
—Julian Zelizer (26:07)

"His power, this is another important part, rests on Congressional Republicans giving him that power...if the midterms change that equation, he would be...in a much more vulnerable situation."
—Julian Zelizer (27:21)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:00–02:39 — Opening: Gas price frustration from the public
• 02:39–05:56 — On-the-ground interviews: Blame, lifestyle impacts, voting considerations
• 06:24–09:48 — Deeper voter sentiment: Economy, trust, willingness to pay for war, political cynicism
• 14:24–19:20 — Historian Dr. Zelizer: When gas became political, power of the pump, 1970s history
• 19:20–22:52 — Zelizer on the psychology/economics of high gas: Visibility, identity, political strategy
• 22:52–27:21 — The contemporary stakes: 2026 election risks, lessons from Biden, presidential limits
• 27:31–28:30 — Closing reflections by Estad Herndon

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Conclusion & Takeaways

• Universal Discontent: All voters, regardless of political persuasion, are feeling the pinch and frustration of high gas prices.
• Blame and Responsibility: The public instinctively blames the sitting president and government, even as many acknowledge global and structural factors.
• Political Danger Zone: High fuel prices have a proven history of destabilizing political incumbents and can provoke “wave” elections or anti-incumbent mood.
• Beyond Policy, Into Psychology: The visibility and symbolic value of gas prices make them especially volatile as campaign issues, far more so than most other economic measurements.
• Limits of Presidential Power: Despite modern presidents’ power and bluster, they’re often at the mercy of international markets, wars, and Congress. No one has found a way to make the pain at the pump politically painless.
• Voter Cynicism: The episode reveals increasing distrust in both parties, with some voters turning their attention to the influence of money in politics over party labels.
• Short-Term Turbulence, Long-Term Solutions Needed: Both Democrats and Republicans need coherent narratives and credible plans for energy, or risk being swept aside in the next electoral backlash.

Closing Quote:

"It doesn't take a historian for people to know who to blame for $4 gas...every single person we talked to knew that the higher gas prices were a direct consequence of the US's war with Iran. This was the administration's doing, and everybody knew it."
—Estad Herndon (27:31)

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For listeners and non-listeners alike, this episode unpacks the enduring, outsized influence of gas prices on American political life—and how, in 2026 as in decades past, nobody is immune from the pressure at the pump.

Transcript

[Estad Herndon]

If there's anything we've heard about this entire summer, no matter where we go or who we talk to, it's about gas prices. Gas is.

[Local Resident 1]

Don't even get me started on gas.

[Estad Herndon]

I don't even want to fill my

[Local Resident 1]

gas tank no more.

[Julian Zelizer]

Okay, you see where the country at now? Gas about $4 a gallon.

[Estad Herndon]

You know, like, if you have one issue you will want politicians to focus on, what would it be? Gas prices. Gas prices.

[Local Resident 2]

Gas prices.

[Estad Herndon]

It's bad. Gas prices are way up since the US Launched its war with Iran. But. But does a little pain at the pump actually affect how people vote? And what if gas is still $4 come November? Is that game over for Donald Trump and the Republicans? That's this week on America, actually. Let's dig in.

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[Estad Herndon]

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[Julian Zelizer]

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[Estad Herndon]

so for the last six months, people all across the country have talked to us a ton about gas prices, but it's been unclear, at least to this point, who, who they blame for the higher prices and whether the higher prices are gonna affect their vote in the November midterm elections.

[Local Resident 3]

Gasoline, the oil will go down rapidly as soon as the war is over.

[Estad Herndon]

President Trump has asked the American public to be patient with higher gas prices and has argued that they will go down as soon as the war with Iran is over, whenever that is. But the numbers will tell you the American people's patience is growing thin with this administration. The average price of gas has hovered around $4 since the spring and summer, and that's up a full dollar from where gas prices were just this February before the war with Iran started. But do gas prices actually affect how people vote in the November midterms? We went to an important congressional district in Pennsylvania to find out.

[Local Resident 2]

I'm gonna show you sign. Look at these gas prices. They're ridiculous. And they just keep going up. And that's not. That's not good.

[Estad Herndon]

Later in the show, we talk to a presidential historian who tells us how much gas prices have mattered in elections in the past and puts our current moment into context. We're on our way to Allentown, Pennsylvania, which is the biggest city in Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. Now, Pennsylvania 7th is one of the most competitive districts in the country, and it's in a region of the state, eastern Pennsylvania, that has seven several critical congressional districts when it comes to who's going to control the House in November. So why not go to some gas stations in Allentown and ask people how much are gas prices affecting their wallet and how much will it affect who they vote for in November? Let's go. Now, we've heard a lot of people talking about gas prices this summer. Have those been on your radar? Like, on a scale of 1 to 10, how, how would you rate how much they've affected your wallet this summer?

[Mint Mobile Announcer]

A lot.

[Estad Herndon]

I don't drive as much.

[Local Resident 2]

Now.

[Estad Herndon]

When we think about gas prices, like, who do you blame for it going up? I blame.

[Local Resident 1]

I blame this government for everything.

[Estad Herndon]

You blame the President?

[Local Resident 3]

I blame the president because he indicated to us he's going to drop all these costs. I know it can't happen overnight, but when is it gonna happen? It's outrageous.

[Estad Herndon]

Did you vote for him to cast?

[Local Resident 3]

Yes, I did.

[Estad Herndon]

And did you vote for him on the premise that stuff like gas would be lower?

[Local Resident 3]

I voted for him with his promises to American people, and I think he's let us down.

[Estad Herndon]

Which would you say is the biggest broken promise for you? Like, what gives you the sense of let down? Is it the prices?

[Local Resident 3]

The prices, the controlling of the prices? Got it has skyrocketed and I just feel it's not fair to those retired people and younger people. We can't survive.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah. Tell me how it's affected your life.

[Local Resident 3]

Well, vacation wise, being retired, the wife and I, we like to go on vacation. Not expensive ones, but the budget for that I have to take away from utility bills, oil bills, medical bills, I have to just take away. My main objective is roof over our head, pay our bills, and then what's left? But there's hardly anything left. Anything left.

[Estad Herndon]

Yep. My last question would be, like, you mentioned Trump now, does this affect how you think about Republicans going forward? Like, we have a midterm election coming up. We have other things, or do you think this is just the father of the people in there right now?

[Local Resident 3]

I really don't Know which way to go or what to do?

[Ryan Reynolds]

Uh huh.

[Estad Herndon]

You feel torn.

[Local Resident 3]

Who is telling the truth and who is going to represent us and do something about it? Talk is cheap, but let's do something about it.

[Estad Herndon]

What would be the number one thing you will want either party to do?

[Local Resident 3]

Price control.

[Estad Herndon]

Prices.

[Local Resident 3]

Yes.

[Estad Herndon]

Got it. Are you someone who votes yes? I do vote. Do things like gas prices affect how you think about who you're gonna vote for? I mean, at the end of the day, I mean, I'm not driving to the White House, but gas prices is something that needs to be reflected on because it's a daily essential in everybody's lives.

[Ryan Reynolds]

Yeah.

[Estad Herndon]

Do you mind if they fail?

[Local Resident 3]

No, not at all.

[Estad Herndon]

Great. When you think about the reasons why they've gone up, is there anybody that you blame for the rise in gas prices? Well, we all know it's the crisis in the Middle East. We know that if you could rate what's at the top of your priority list. When you make a choice between D and R, as someone who says they're in the middle, what is at the height of what helps you make that decision? What's the top of your priority list?

[Local Resident 3]

The economy. The economy, basically, yes.

[Estad Herndon]

And what does that mean to you? Like housing, gas? Like what piece of the economy? Because that's a big. It's a big thing.

[Local Resident 3]

Well, that is all.

[Julian Zelizer]

It's.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, it's all the above. It's all the. When we say gas prices, what's the first thing that comes to your mind?

[Local Resident 1]

Say gas prices. I mean essential. We all drive. We don't have public transportation in this area. So we're all subjected to the price of what it's going to be.

[Estad Herndon]

And this summer it's moved a lot. Has it changed how you got to go about your life or work? Because gas prices have gone up?

[Local Resident 1]

I would say if the situations were different and we actually had like public transportation, it probably would. But since I have to commute to work every single day, I have to pay my bills, I have to pay the gas.

[Estad Herndon]

So you have no other option?

[Local Resident 1]

I have no other option.

[Estad Herndon]

Is there anyone we blame for the rise of gas prices?

[Local Resident 1]

I think it's pretty obvious answer to that.

[Estad Herndon]

You tell me.

[Local Resident 1]

I mean, look at the way that things have gone since February. I think you can make a contrast to how things went back in 2022 when we went to. Well, we didn't go to war with Ukraine, but when Ukraine got attacked by Russia.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah. The last time we saw that kind of direct correlation.

[Local Resident 1]

Yeah.

[Estad Herndon]

So how should we think about this. President Trump told us he was going to lower gas prices. He told us he was going to lower grocery bills. And here we are with higher gas, like a year or so in, like, I don't know if you're someone who voted for him or supported him, but I'm like, what should we think about that contradiction?

[Local Resident 1]

Oh, he's a complete fraud. You know what I mean?

[Estad Herndon]

Like, that's how you think about it.

[Local Resident 1]

Yeah, I mean, it's obvious. I mean, I'm not going to sit here and say that. I mean, I think that we have President Trump as a direct result of some of the past administrations and just sheer unhappiness with the way that things are going, the way that things went. And I think that now President Trump is a consequence of maybe being okay with status quo for too long. But I think it's quite obvious now at this point that, I mean, the jig is up and that we're clearly not being represented by somebody who has our best interests.

[Estad Herndon]

The last thing I would say is, when you look ahead, is there anything. Is there? Like, do you think Democrats help things like gas prices? Like, do you have any confidence in anybody in the landscape to say, hey, if this person was in office, things will be different?

[Local Resident 1]

I would say it depends who their funding's coming from, because that's the biggest thing for you. I don't think it matters if they're a Democrat or Republican, if they're taking money from lobbies like aipac. Gotta wonder, you know, the party doesn't seem to matter. It's like, you know, are they. Who is their campaign financing coming from? Is it a real grassroots, you know, campaign where they're actually getting donations from people? Rather than big. Big PACs, big corporations?

[Estad Herndon]

Rather than looking at D or R, you're looking at, where does your money come from? And are you gonna fight for little guys 100%? Are you from Allentown?

[Local Resident 4]

You come around here, Allentown. I get a lot of it right now is because of the war.

[Local Resident 1]

Yeah.

[Local Resident 4]

But I just saw this morning on the news that oil prices have gone down. So that's. That's a good sign.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, it is. Being linked to the war. Now, is that something that you're willing to pay a higher price for the cost of what, you know, the president saying is trying to make some people

[Local Resident 4]

say yes, because our president is actually doing something about Iran. He's not, you know, he's not sugarcoating it. It's something we need to do. And in the long run, it's going to be better for everybody.

[Estad Herndon]

And I just want to be clear. And that's something you're willing to pay a higher gas price for?

[Local Resident 4]

Yes.

[Estad Herndon]

Does that have a timeline? Does that willingness run out at any point? If those prices are still high, come into the summer, end of the year, like, will you feel the same?

[Local Resident 4]

Yes, because I feel, you know, as long as it takes, we need to. We need to make sure Iran doesn't make a nuclear bomb or anything like that. You know, we have look out for America and this president's doing that.

[Estad Herndon]

Okay. It's been going up all summer. Has it changed the way you go about your job or your life, How y' all get around?

[Local Resident 2]

It does.

[Estad Herndon]

Tell me how it does, because I

[Local Resident 2]

drive, I do deliveries for a living and I gotta put plus on my other vehicle. And that's more expensive. Five dollars. Look at that.

[Estad Herndon]

And you're saying because you have to put the plus in the vehicle and that has gone up, it's changed how you have to drive around.

[Local Resident 2]

Yeah, Yeah. I really don't go nowhere.

[Local Resident 3]

Mm.

[Estad Herndon]

Who do you blame for those higher prices?

[Local Resident 2]

The government.

[Estad Herndon]

So we just finished talking to people in gas stations in Allentown, Pennsylvania, the central seat of Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district. And we heard everything. A universal agreement that gas prices are too high and it's affecting folks lives, but also a blame centrally on the President, even though we heard a couple people who defend him. But let's put this all into context and understand how gas prices affect this November election and 2028 by talking to economist and historian Julian Zelizer. We're going to do that back in New York, though. Let's do it. Support for this show comes from Mint Mobile. Some of the best things happen during the summer and Mint Mobile summer sale is one of them. Right now, all of Mint's plans are just 15 bucks a month. That's $15 a month for high speed, unlimited talk and text on the nation's largest 5G network. You can even bring your own phone and your own phone number. We have a colleague here at Vox who uses Mint Mobile and they love how much they've been saving. To get your new wireless plan for just 15 bucks a month, go to mintmobile.com ested that's mintmobile.com ast e d to cut your wireless bill to 15 bucks per month. That's mintmobile.com asted. That's it. There is no catch. Upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months, and $180 for 12 months plan required $15 per month equivalent taxes and fees Extra initial plan term Only greater than 50 gigabytes may slow network when busy. Includes up to 20 gigabyte hotspot capable device required. Availability, speed and coverage varies. See mintmobile.com for more details. Support for this show comes from Shopify. Starting a business is a big deal. Like really big, and to run it efficiently you need more hands than the human body has. Luckily, Shopify is here to help. Shopify has all the tools you need to launch and they are ready and waiting from day one. Their templates and AI tools give you a step stunning site up and ready fast. No coding required. Shopify checkout means you'll know exactly when a customer buys or returns an item with a single click. Plus if questions come up, Shopify's built in AI Assistant Sidekick is there to help them build, troubleshoot and keep moving. So if you've been sitting on a business idea, Shopify can finally help you get it off the ground. They've done the same with millions of businesses worldwide, from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to businesses that are just getting started. Shopify gives you everything you need to start selling built in and ready from day one. All you need is the idea and Shopify does the rest. You can go to shopify.comamericaactually to get started with your free trial. That's shopify.comamericaactually shopify.comamericaactually foreign.

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[Estad Herndon]

Dr. Julian Zelizer, thank you for joining us. We appreciate your time. How are you?

[Julian Zelizer]

It's a pleasure to be with you. I'm doing well.

[Estad Herndon]

I wanted to talk to you because we were just in Pennsylvania talking to people about gas prices and how it affects their vote. And I know you're someone who has looked at that historically, how gas prices impact presidencies, and even more recently on your substack where you wrote about why gas prices hit different A good topic for us today. I wanted to start by looking backwards though, like when did the price of gas become such a political weapon in America? Does this date all the way back to The Model T. Now, it really

[Julian Zelizer]

dates to the 1970s. That's when the United States will have two energy crises in 1973 and 1979. And the price of gas becomes a huge political issue for Americans. It affects presidents, it affects Congress, and it becomes a manifestation in that decade of the problems facing the country. So I think that's when we start to realize we don't have unlimited resources and it's gonna be a political problem.

[Estad Herndon]

Can you go in more detail about, for those unfamiliar, what happened in the 70s to make it so clear to Americans, oh, this party might not last forever?

[Julian Zelizer]

Well, production of oil here peaks in the late 1960s, early 1970s, and then in 1973, OPEC, which is the cartel of oil producing countries in the Middle east, imposes an embargo on the US because the United States had supported Israel during the Yom Kippur War. And as a result of the embargo, prices go up and supplies go down. And that's when Americans start to face gas lines. They start to face different kinds of rations and politicians need to deal with this. And then in 1979, we have another round of this after the Iranian revolution, and that leads to even bigger gas lines and more stringent rations and government mandates in 79. And many people think it really helped bring down Jimmy Carter's presidency.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, I was going to ask that. Should we think about Jimmy Carter as the first president whose election loss can be blamed on gas prices?

[Julian Zelizer]

Yeah, I mean, it could have been Richard Nixon, but other things brought him down in 1974. Although it was part, it was certainly part of the problem. But Carter, yes, I mean, Carter in 1979, it's in the summer of 79, is really reeling from what Americans experience. And it's not simply gas prices. It's waiting in line for gas. It's hearing that you could only buy gas on certain days, it's reading stories about people stealing gas and, and violent clashes occurring over getting this commodity. And so there's a lot of things that go into the mix with Carter. The hostages in Iran, certainly. But certainly his difficulty dealing with this fundamental. Is a big part of what happens in 1980 when Reagan wins the presidency.

[Estad Herndon]

Important. I wanna ask also, though, about what looms over this, because of course, presidents have little control over the global price of oil, yet they are blamed for it seemingly every time. Since you're tracking kind of history of this issue, how have politicians and particularly presidents dealt with that reality, considering the price of the pump is so important to their political futures? While not always in their control.

[Julian Zelizer]

Well, in the 70s, they tried with legislation. Jimmy Carter pushes legislation that deals with energy, but it's limited in its success. Americans want a lot of oil, and it was hard to get them to conserve. He put solar panels on the White House. Yeah, there's really not much presidents can do. We have the strategic reserves. And other than that, I think presidents just wait it out and hope the timing works in their favor and the gas prices go down again.

[Estad Herndon]

Is there an example of a president who beat the gas prices trap? I want to ask kind of a counterintuitive question, like, do we have any example of someone successfully convincing the country, hey, look away from the price of the pump?

[Julian Zelizer]

No, I think we have presidents who say, just look away for a little while, and when reelection comes around again, they're doing better even. I mean, even President George W. Bush struggled with some of this after 9, 11 and after the war started. But in the end, he doesn't make an announcement about it so much as focus on other issues such as national security. And now we see how prices fluctuate. So you just. You wait for those moments.

[Estad Herndon]

They're taking the stall tactic mostly. I want to ask, before we get to what's happening this summer, why do we think it's such an importance about gas specifically? Of course, we hear about groceries, but it's not like we hear about other consumer goods as much. You know, I personally think that the economy went to crap after the McDonald's dollar menu went away. But, like, why is it always gasoline rather than those other commodities when we think about the priorities for the electorate?

[Julian Zelizer]

Well, I think there's a few things. One is that historically, the automobile really symbolizes American freedom and American consumption. And so when something impinges on our ability to drive a lot, yeah, we love our cars. Second, it's a price you just see. It's just very visible when it goes up or down more than groceries even. And I think that kind of recurring image for people becomes very politically potent if that number gets too high. So it's a real struggle, but it's also symbolically right in front of us. And these days, I think even more so now than in the 70s or 80s, it's become something that the reporters and the media track. Oil prices. So it's like stocks, but something that more people consume than stock. The stocks.

[Estad Herndon]

Right, right, right. You could just be driving past the gas station to get your sticker shock. You don't need to be in the Walmart or in said McDonald's to recognize that things have gone up.

[Julian Zelizer]

You don't even have to be buying gas. You can literally drive by it. Yeah.

[Estad Herndon]

I want to then talk specifically about this summer. We've crossed $4 a gallon again this summer, the highest in since 2022. And this time it's pretty clearly tied with the ongoing war in Iran. Donald Trump has tried to make the argument that some short term pain at the pump is worth a long term national security focus. But his energy secretary said pretty clearly that gas won't be back to $3 until 2027. Obviously, that puts us after the midterm elections. It sounds like he's running the exact playbook you just told me has never worked, which is to get people to just pretend this is not happening. I mean, what have you. The president has handled the spike in gas prices since this summer.

[Julian Zelizer]

I mean, in part, it strikes me as a president who doesn't really care about the fate of his party. I think it is a big issue. I think most Republicans understand that. And it's tied. I mean, another problem to add to the prices being up and staying up. It's tied to a war that really doesn't have public support. It's a war without the kind of clarity even that many people felt after 911 with Afghanistan and Iraq for a while. And so it's the worst of all worlds. And so I think he's really fumbled on this issue. And there was part of him that hoped people either wouldn't care even if they noticed or somehow the prices would diminish. But it's certainly not looking that way.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, yeah, certainly. I mean, I wanted to ask about Biden because in 2022, the Biden administration saw record highs in gas prices, also somewhat due to a foreign conflict, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. And it sort of felt like the perception of Biden's handling of the economy never really recovered after that. What lessons could the Trump administration take from the administration just before them in terms of how to handle the political quagmire that is gas prices?

[Julian Zelizer]

Yeah. Aladd, you remember some of Biden's opponents put stickers on gas pumps that said, you know, this is Biden's fault. Look, I think the most important is you can't deny the reality that Americans feel, even in an age of disinformation and hard to follow news flows, people see what they're paying. And I think, you know, Trump trying to not recognize what people are struggling with and then to ignore the severity of it, both of which some people think Biden did with Gas and other parts of the economy is just not a winning strategy.

[Estad Herndon]

Okay, I'm gonna ask a couple of forward looking ones as we close out here. Like, okay, it's August, we've seen where the prices are. Now come November, if gas is still $4 or higher, is the GOP doomed?

[Julian Zelizer]

They're not doomed. And I think the fears of, you know, election administration is the counter to what we're talking about. But, but look, if, if the election is, is done well and all those votes are counted, I think, yes, this will be in addition to some other issues extraordinarily damaging to the GOP and it would be part of potentially a wave election.

[Estad Herndon]

Y I wanted to ask, is there any risk for Democrats for campaigning so closely on gas prices? Like as you mentioned, it fluctuates from administration. Administration. Presidents don't seem to have all that control over it. Legislation doesn't seem to have that much control over it. Is there any risk in saying, hey, he's made your gas prices go up when the next Democratic president or the next Democratic Congress may not be able to stop that?

[Julian Zelizer]

It's an even shorter term risk. I mean, any kind of fluctuation downward, we don't know where it will be, undercuts that argument to a certain extent, even if it's temporary. And secondly, look, that kind of anger about the economy can manifest itself in a throw the bums out mentality for voters, meaning everyone's at risk. So vulnerable Democrats might feel the ire of voters paying higher prices as much as the Republicans in the midterm. So there are risks, of course.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, it seems like we're seeing some of those risks too. Cuz when they say throw the bums out, that might not just be Republicans, that might include some Democrats. And we're seeing some of the Democratic electorate seemingly loop them both into that group.

[Julian Zelizer]

No, it's true. You can't control moments of great electoral unrest. That was true in the 70s where both parties ended up really suffering as a result of economic problems, oil and others. And also, look, going into 2028, there will be at some level desire to hear candidates say what they're gonna do. I mean, it's not enough to say prices are too high. It's not enough to say prices are too high right now because of Iran. Democrats will have to make a case, as Biden tried to do with alternative energy and electric cars, of here's a way that we don't have to keep facing this every few years, not just

[Estad Herndon]

the short term, identifying with folks paying, but A long term solution.

[Julian Zelizer]

Exactly. And I think that would be a compelling argument given how important this has now to dragging down Republican support.

[Estad Herndon]

The last question I have is, you know, you have argued that the President may matter a little less than we think, and that certainly feels true when we talk about the issue of gas prices. But Donald Trump seems to challenge that thesis a little bit. Like his willingness to push the boundaries on executive power, attacks on Congress and the courts, even what we're seeing in terms of Iran. It feels like one guy has reshaped so much of our political scene that I wanted to ask you, like, is there anything about the Trump year, specifically Trump too, that challenges that thesis? Are we seeing a president who is uniquely important, even if others have been more controlled by structures?

[Julian Zelizer]

Look, presidents have been increasingly powerful since the early 20th century. That's why we talk about an imperial presidency. They have executive authority, they have the ability to send troops without declarations of war, et cetera, et cetera. But there are limits. I mean, President Trump has very explicitly avoided legislation. He has put very little on the books, and a lot of what he can do can quickly be undone. And I think the lesson in Iran right now is also the limits of what he can do. He has a lot of bluster. He has controlled what is happening on the end of the US but he can't bring this to an end. I'm sure he would love to have this over. So in some ways, it reflects the limitations of the power that he might not see affect him as much as others.

[Estad Herndon]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. For all his power, he can't go take Greenland, much to his frustration.

[Julian Zelizer]

Correct. And look, you know, his power, this is another important part, rests on Congressional Republicans giving him that power. It's not simply that they've given up on that power. So he has a party that supports him. And so if the midterms change that equation, he would be, as he was in 2019, in a much more vulnerable situation.

[Estad Herndon]

Important to know. Thank you so much for joining us. We appreciate this historical context and the long look at the political effect of gas prices.

[Julian Zelizer]

Thanks for having me. A pleasure to talk to you.

[Estad Herndon]

So after heading to Pennsylvania and talking with Juliet, a couple things stick out to me most clearly. It doesn't take a historian for people to know who to blame for $4 gas. Whether you were a Trump hater or a Trump lover, every single person we talk to knew that the higher gas prices were a direct consequence of the US s war with Iran. This was the administration's doing, and everybody knew it. Plus, based on my reporting, I think that you can see why gas prices, maybe more than any other issue, have been a clear reason why Donald Trump's approval rating is in the toilet, confidence in his economic leadership has collapsed in his second term and being out in Pennsylvania. But I think you can see why they weren't just blaming the high gas prices on the President individually, but on a Republican Party that they feel has given him carte blanche to execute a war they don't feel is in American's interest and they're the ones paying for. America actually will be in your feeds every Saturday with an interesting interview in culture or politics, and you could also watch these episodes on the Vox YouTube channel. Just go to YouTube.com vox or click the link in the Show Notes the best way to support this show is by becoming a Vox member. Members get a bonus segment on Patreon every week and they make our work possible. Just go to Vox.com members to join. That's Vox.com members to join. This show was edited by Kasha Prasalian, Fact Checked by Esther Gim and mixed by Shannon Mahoney. Christopher Snyder is our video editor and Kuh Nui is our senior Art director. Our executive producer is Christina Vallis and our theme music is by Breakmaster Cylinder. Additional support from Miranda Kennedy, David Tadashore and Nisha Chetal. I'm Estad Herndon and this is America actually.

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