The recession indicator game

Summary

Today, Explained: The Recession Indicator Game Episode Release Date: June 8, 2025 | Host: Vox's Sean Rameswaram and Noel King

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Introduction to Recession Indicators

Timestamp: 01:06 – 05:30

The episode delves into the myriad of recession indicators circulating online, particularly those gaining traction on social media platforms like TikTok. Listener John Ribeiro from Boston initiates the conversation by questioning the validity of these online indicators compared to traditional economic metrics.

John Ribeiro [01:35]: "I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok?"

Hannah Aaron Lang, a Wall Street Journal Markets reporter, provides her perspective, emphasizing the widespread economic uncertainty lingering since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. She highlights persistent inflation and rising costs of essential goods as tangible signs of economic strain.

Hannah Aaron Lang [03:40]: "Everything is inflated. When I go into the grocery store, it's sticker shock."

Lang also references President Donald Trump's tariff policies announced in early April, which spooked investors and contributed to stock market volatility, further fueling recession fears.

Hannah Aaron Lang [04:15]: "I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession. And in the context of a recession, we'll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed."

Listener Questions and Expert Insights

Timestamp: 09:06 – 12:52

The discussion progresses to explore the variety of recession indicators trending online, ranging from the mundane to the peculiar. Examples include skincare companies selling eggs and changes in fashion trends such as shorter nails or the resurgence of low-rise jeans. Lang explains that while some indicators might seem trivial, they can offer insights into consumer behavior and spending patterns.

Jonathan Hill [05:34]: "There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now."

Lang points out that modern indicators are not entirely new; historical parallels like the hemline index from the 1920s demonstrate that unconventional metrics have long been used to gauge economic health.

Hannah Aaron Lang [10:13]: "Each time there was a dip, that would signal an economic downturn."

The conversation underscores that while social media often sensationalizes these indicators, many are rooted in real economic behaviors such as reduced discretionary spending and shifts in consumer priorities.

The Recession Indicator Game

Timestamp: 10:46 – 12:52

In a segment titled the Recession Indicator Game, Jonathan Hill presents various supposed indicators to Lang, who evaluates their plausibility based on economic principles. Examples discussed include:

• Press-On Nails:

  Lang [11:06]: "It could be that times are tough, you need to cut back. Maybe you're cutting manicures out of your budget."

• Statement Necklaces:

  Lang [11:14]: "Not so plausible. I'm not quite sure how that one could connect back to spending."

• Strip Club Tips:

  Lang [11:34]: "Maybe folks have less discretionary income and they just can't afford it."

• Whole Body Deodorant:

  Lang [12:08]: "That's debatable. Are we buying it because the hot water bill is too expensive or because we're too lazy to shower?"

• Paying in Cash for Liquor:

  Lang [12:28]: "I would need to see more data on that."

This interactive segment illustrates the subjective nature of many online recession indicators and emphasizes the importance of relying on robust economic data over anecdotal trends.

Recession Pop and Cultural Reflections

Timestamp: 14:28 – 23:47

The episode transitions to a cultural analysis of "Recession Pop", a genre coined post-fact to describe upbeat, bubblegum pop music from the Great Recession era (2007-2012) that continued to influence music beyond its inception. John Ribeiro contends that artists like Katy Perry epitomize this trend with tracks such as "Teenage Dream" and "Last Friday Night."

John Ribeiro [15:09]: "Recession pop is a made up after the fact genre referring to upbeat bubblegum pop music from the time of The Great Recession."

Lang and Ribeiro discuss whether current music trends mirror economic conditions. Ribeiro argues that despite the term's recent emergence, "Recession Pop" was more a reflection of the music industry's struggles during the Great Recession rather than a direct indicator of economic health.

John Ribeiro [22:00]: "Recession pop is very much a real thing and it's completely made up... it's only become part of the culture recently."

They conclude that while nostalgic music trends gain popularity, they may not serve as accurate economic indicators but rather as cultural nostalgia cycles influenced by the demographics of those in power within the music industry.

Preparing for a Potential Recession

Timestamp: 24:53 – 29:15

Returning to the core topic, Lang addresses the original query about real recession indicators relevant to the everyday person. She identifies reduced consumer spending and a weakening job market as primary indicators that directly impact individuals' quality of life.

Hannah Aaron Lang [25:54]: "A big one that I've mentioned already is reduced consumer spending."

Lang advises listeners to focus on practical measures to prepare for potential economic downturns, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an emergency fund covering 3 to 12 months of living expenses.

Hannah Aaron Lang [27:11]: "The biggest thing I would say is probably an emergency fund. Anything from 3 to 12 months of living expenses saved."

She balances the discussion by acknowledging that while current economic data such as low unemployment rates and a rebounded stock market suggest resilience, many people, especially younger generations, still feel the strain of a challenging economy.

Hannah Aaron Lang [27:54]: "I think it's both ends. ... I think the sentiment at the core of it is."

Conclusion

Timestamp: 29:15 – End

The episode wraps up by reaffirming that while online and social media-driven recession indicators may capture public sentiment, the most reliable signs remain traditional economic metrics like consumer spending and employment rates. Lang encourages listeners to remain informed and proactive in their financial planning to navigate potential economic uncertainties.

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Key Takeaways:

• Recession indicators range from traditional economic data to unconventional social media trends.
• Consumer behavior and spending patterns are critical in assessing economic health.
• Cultural phenomena like Recession Pop reflect broader societal sentiments but are not definitive economic indicators.
• Practical financial preparedness, such as maintaining an emergency fund, is essential regardless of prevailing economic forecasts.

Notable Quotes:

• “I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession.” — Hannah Aaron Lang [04:15]
• “There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now.” — Jonathan Hill [05:34]
• “The biggest thing I would say is probably an emergency fund.” — Hannah Aaron Lang [27:11]

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This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of how economic concerns manifest both in traditional indicators and the evolving landscape of social media trends, offering listeners valuable insights into distinguishing between superficial signs and substantive economic data.

Transcript

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

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[John Ribeiro]

So are our playlists indicating larger economic trends?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now.

[Jonathan Hill]

Hey there, I'm Jonathan Hill and this is Explain It To Me where we answer the questions that matter most to you.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Your call has been forwarded to an automatic voice message system. Hi, my name is John Ribeiro. I live in Boston, Massachusetts. I work at a liquor store. And one of the things that my colleagues and I talk about is how we notice more people are using cash. And we always notice that when there is sort of uncertainty in the economy, seems like maybe more people are managing to use their money by having it physically so they can sort of keep track of how much they're spending instead of potentially overspending and treating their debit card like a gift card. I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok?

[Jonathan Hill]

That's a great question, John. And to find out, I reached out to journalist Hannah Aaron Lang.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I am a reporter on the Markets team at the Wall Street Journal. I've covered the economy and business for most of my journalism career and basically what I do now is watch the stock market every day and write about what it means for real people.

[Jonathan Hill]

So when you log on to your social media of choice, you, you know, you see all these people calling things recession indicators. You know, low rise jeans, cutting down on manicures. What's fueling these online recession indicators?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I would say there's been some kind of bad vibes floating around the economy for a while now, probably in some shape or form since the start of the pandemic.

[John Ribeiro]

Can somebody explain to me in crayon eating terms why I make over three times the federal minimum wage and I cannot afford to live?

[Jonathan Hill]

This economy is so bad, $33 for toilet paper, we can't even afford to shit.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I know the economy is getting worse and worse because more and more of.

[John Ribeiro]

My Uber drivers have been white. And this is terrifying.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I think a lot of that has come from the inflation we saw kind of coming out of COVID Everything that we need, coffee cups, coffee, sugar, milk, everything is a lot more expensive. Everything is inflated. When I go into the grocery store, it's sticker shock. It's not like it used to be. I used to try to buy one month's worth of groceries, but not anymore. Prices climbed quite quickly and the inflation rate has come down a lot since then. But we're still looking at a higher cost of rent, eating out other goods and services. And I think that's difficult for everyday people to navigate. Things have also just gotten more chaotic this year in general when we think about markets and the economy. In early April, President Donald Trump announced this plan for sweeping tariffs on much of the United States trade partners across the globe. You see the numbers, the numbers are so disproportionate, they're so unfair. At the same time, we will establish a minimum baseline tariff of 10%, basically saying we are going to impose these huge charges on imported goods. That really spooked investors and financial markets and stocks fell sharply. And as those major stock indexes tumbled and investors tried to make sense of what this was going to mean for the United States, we started to hear people on Wall street talk about the potential of a recession again as a result of the kind of economic turmoil caused by this trade policy plan. I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession. And in the context of a recession, we'll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed. We'll see losses in household income.

[Jonathan Hill]

What are some of the top so called recession indicators being talked about right now?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now. This can be everything from a skin care company selling eggs.

[Jonathan Hill]

The prices of eggs have Dr. Gone up. So the ordinary, a skincare company said.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

We'Re going to take this problem on.

[Jonathan Hill]

And give you an ordinary price of.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

$3.37 for eggs to press on. Nails coming back, recession indicator, princess nails. I haven't seen one person in long.

[Jonathan Hill]

Acrylic stiletto coffin nails in a very long time.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Everybody got some short nails on to certain fashion trends like women in menswear and women in office wear. If no money, we can't have two outfits for work and play. When the business get casual, the money goes out the door. Okay?

[John Ribeiro]

The second bitches start putting on blazers.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

And a collared shirt, it's over.

[John Ribeiro]

Keep a lookout.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

And they can range from the reasonable. So I'm a curbside shopper at heb and honestly guys, the number one recession.

[Jonathan Hill]

Indicator should be that everyone is getting.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Spaghetti to what I would call the more ridiculous like sightings of Snooki from Jersey Shore.

[John Ribeiro]

Is Snooki falling backwards out of her seat at a club a true recession indicator? Let's talk about it.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Or lay it down Leaving New York a recession indicator? Or the fact that Gwyneth Paltrow said on a podcast, if I'm honest and getting back into eating some sourdough bread and some cheese.

[John Ribeiro]

There, I said it.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

There's a super wide variety of what qualifies as a so called recession indicator on the Internet.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay. Some of these indicators admittedly feel kind of extra. Do you think any of them are real signs of economic troubles?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Well, I think that some of them could definitely be considered a more realistic piece of evidence about the economy. Right. So I think of one particular example. One of these posts about our so called recession indicator was about the partnership between Klarna and DoorDash. So the idea that people might be in a financial place where they want to pay for delivery or take out in installments as opposed to paying for that upfront. So that could be a sign that maybe some folks, their budgets are tight, they're having to cut back on spending or you know, they maybe can't afford to eat out as much as they used to. When we're talking about something like that, what we're really talking about is consumer spending. Right. It's the engine of the US economy. And if people stop spending money, that's really bad news. Other times these so called recession indicators are more just Trends from the 20082012 era that have worked their way back around. I'm thinking of, you know, maybe low rise or like those knee high Converse sneakers. Oh my gosh, lace up to the knee. Yeah, that were super popular when I was in grade school or you know, Big Dancy pop songs by Lady Gaga, Ke$everybody get your trunk. These are more trends from maybe the Great Recession era that folks spot working their way back into pop culture and see as a recession indicator in that way.

[Jonathan Hill]

Yeah. Okay. Most of these alleged recession indicators we're talking about. You know, they're coming from social media users and influencers. But what about the experts? You know, y' all look at economic data, but do economists look at trends, too?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

So this habit of searching for economic clues like this in unusual places is not a new one. And I would say that experts do it all the time. Of course, we have these really reliable, robust economic data sets like the jobs report, the inflation report, the pce, something called the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index that, you know, investors and economists are looking at on a regular basis. Right. But those reports can be lagging in that way. So economists and investors are often looking at these kind of offbeat sources of data or offbeat trends. Former Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan famously looked at, say, sales of men's underwear. Right? Greenspan looked at men's underwear sales as.

[John Ribeiro]

A key indicator of whether we're heading.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Into a recession, with the idea being that if you have to cut back, this might be a place where nobody else is going to know but yourself.

[John Ribeiro]

Now, Greenspan played, paid close attention to this because according to him, men's underwear.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Sales would stay pretty steady year after year. Didn't matter boxers or briefs. But any time there was a dip.

[John Ribeiro]

That would tell Greenspan that guys are.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Pinching their pennies, not replacing old underwear. And to him, that would signal an economic downturn. Then there are also these urban legends of the hemline index.

[John Ribeiro]

This phenomenon was first observed during the 1920s or the roaring twenties when the economy was great, the hemlines got a lot shorter, and then the further they moved towards the Great Depression, the longer the skirts got.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

So young people online are definitely not the first people to search for economic insight off the beaten path, so to speak. But they certainly are taking it to a new level.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, so I want to play a game with you.

[John Ribeiro]

It's the recession indicator game.

[Jonathan Hill]

I'm going to toss out some of these, you know, supposed recession indicators at you, and you tell me whether it's right to consider them like a plausible sign of impending economic doom. Okay, press on nails.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I would go with plausible. It could be that times are tough, you need to cut back. Maybe you're cutting manicures out of your.

[Jonathan Hill]

Budget, returning to your natural hair color.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Plausible. For the same argument statement necklaces, I would go with not so plausible. I'm not quite sure how that one could connect back to spending. Bad news for fashion, maybe, depending on your opinion, but maybe not.

[Jonathan Hill]

The economy declining to tip at the strip club plausible.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Maybe folks have less discretionary income and they just can't afford it.

[Jonathan Hill]

Also, you guys don't go to the strip club if you can't tip. That's the whole point.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Right? Right. It's kind of like going out to eat. Like the tip has to, I think, be factored in.

[Jonathan Hill]

Pay those ladies. Okay. Fewer meals out.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Definitely plausible. I know economists and other experts that actually watch for this type of data.

[Jonathan Hill]

Whole body deodorant.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I would say that's debatable. I think it depends. Ooh, are we buying it because the hot water bill is getting too expensive or are we buying it because we're too lazy to shower? I think like that's the key.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay. And finally, paying in cash for your liquor.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

This one I feel like I would need to see more data on, especially because we paying in cash, maybe for a potential discount, like to avoid a credit card fee. Are we buying less liquor? I feel like I would need a little more context on that.

[John Ribeiro]

Thanks for playing the recession indicator game.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Don't forget to have your cats and.

[John Ribeiro]

Dogs spayed and neutered.

[Jonathan Hill]

We're gonna come back to you in just a few for some more realistic advice on what to keep in mind when you're trying to spot an economic decline. But first, we're going to investigate the indicator that's making Kesha cool again. That's after this break.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

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[Jonathan Hill]

It's Explain it to me. And we are so back. Today, we're talking recession indicators. The recession indicator I've been wondering about is this idea of recession pop. I asked Switched On Pop co host Charlie Harding if our music tastes really do shift with the economy.

[John Ribeiro]

Oh, we so are all looking for a crystal ball. And music feels like it's gotta be it because that's where we go to get into our feelings. So are our playlists indicating larger economic trends? I don't think so.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, that's interesting because lately there's been all this talk of recession pop. What is recession pop referring to?

[John Ribeiro]

Recession pop is a made up after the fact genre referring to upbeat bubblegum pop music from the time of The Great Recession 2007, sort of lasting 18 months or so, but music that continues after that because the economic vibes were pretty iffy for a few years. So we're talking about Black Eyed Peas, Lady Gaga, Keshe.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Cause yeah, you love, you love is my drug yeah, you love, you love.

[John Ribeiro]

I mean, I really do think that Katy Perry's whole oeuvre represents that era better than any other. We're talking about songs like Teenage Dream, a song which has this ongoing chord progression that never resolves, that makes you have the feeling of the teenage life that will just never end. You're never gonna grow up. And it has this wonderful nostalgic quality to it. Or last Friday night, the party that is the rager that you're gonna go all out in. Those songs had a sort of light, effervescent, sort of post disco, very poppy, programmed music kind of vibe. They were not serious, very tongue in cheek. And I just think that Katy Perry is the queen of that recession pop sound.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

You and I will be young for whatever you make me feel like I'm living a teenage dream.

[John Ribeiro]

It has to sound a little over polished, really well made programmed music meaning like drum machines, synthesizers, guitars in the line of like Nile Rogers from Chic, but not nearly as well done. So like sort of funk style, disco style guitars, cheesy program strings in the background. And then the lyric has to be about some kind of. Either it's like party, party, party all night, forever, this night, that night, this night's never gonna end. Or larger platitudes about being a girl boss.

[Jonathan Hill]

You said this is sort of a genre that people have named it after the fact.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Yes.

[Jonathan Hill]

And you know, it's called recession pop because there was a recession. What else was going on in music during that time other than these, you know, fun, poppy, we're gonna party all night long songs?

[John Ribeiro]

Well, music was in a really difficult place. Music had been going through a recession for half a decade at that point, ever since the turn of the millennium. And Napster, the illegal downloading market, basically had eviscerated the music industry.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

The world has Changed for the goliaths of the record industry, Sony, Universal and others. The record companies say they will lose billions in sales because fans are getting their music for free.

[John Ribeiro]

You know, it saw its revenues, like, cut in half. And so that business was in free fall to the degree that they thought that their future was in downloadable ringtones.

[Jonathan Hill]

Oh my gosh, that is so funny.

[John Ribeiro]

So the whole music industry was struggling and it was going through a lot of changes. I mean, indie music was really big as the mainstream labels were struggling to figure out how to make sales. Anyways, there was a huge indie boom. Hip hop was going through a sort of bling and party hip hop era. There was a lot of upbeat music during these uncertain times. That's certainly true. I think it's important to note as well that during the Great Recession, there was plenty of music which didn't reflect an upbeat attitude. One of the biggest songs of 2007 was what Goes Around Comes around by Justin Timberlake or Umbrella by Rihanna. I don't think of those as as upbeat, happy songs. If you have to protect yourself from the rain under an umbrella, you know, this is more acknowledging maybe our deep upset of the national condition.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Now that it's raining more than ever, know that we'll still have each other. You can stand under my umbrella. You can stand under my umbrella. Ella. Ella.

[John Ribeiro]

So I think that even in the recession pop era, there's music of all kinds. Upbeat, downbeat, sad, happy. And so I actually think that the genre is a very slippery one that represents a lot of different kinds of music.

[Jonathan Hill]

Are we hearing that sound pop up with any new artists? Now?

[John Ribeiro]

Some people have said that supposedly, like Chapel Roan and Charli XCX are digging into that recession era in their new music. I'm a little more skeptical. If recession pop were doing really well right now, Katy Perry's Woman's World would have been a huge hit. And if anyone has followed it has been a real stinker for her. Unfortunately, a album full of kind of empty, anthemic songs that have really underperformed, leading to really poor album sales, ticket sales, and a question of is her entire career on the rocks? If she, for me, is the indicator of the original recession sound and recession pop were an indicator right now that we're leading into a recession, I would think that Katy Perry's new music would be doing phenomenally well. And it's not.

[Jonathan Hill]

Why are we talking about recession pop right now? Why is that happening?

[John Ribeiro]

Well, one is that everyone's looking for vibes of what's going on in the larger economy. But I think more largely millennials are aging out of being cool.

[Jonathan Hill]

Oh, no.

[John Ribeiro]

You stop listening to new music, usually between 25 and 30 years old. And then when you get into a position of power where you become a curator of culture, now it's your time to assert, the thing that was good when I was young is still good.

[Jonathan Hill]

So this could be less about the economy and more about those of us born in the 80s and early 90s kind of having a midlife crisis a little bit.

[John Ribeiro]

Absolutely. I think there was a huge cultural midlife crisis and a claiming of power.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, but Charlie, I will say I've seen tons of bars and clubs throwing these recession pop dance parties, and I'm hearing like all these samples in music from current artists from that era. How do you explain all this?

[John Ribeiro]

Oh, recession pop is very much a real thing and it's completely made up, which is to say that there was no such thing as recession pop during the recession. It's a term that was made up only very recently. Maybe someone used it on Twitter. But it's only become part of the culture recently. And it's absolutely a nostalgia driven way of getting maybe those millennials who've got more disposable income than at any other point in their life, certainly since the recession. And maybe you want to get them back going out to clubs again. Well, if you play their favorite music, you're going to get them out and dancing again. So I think the way that recession pop is being invoked is not trying to dig into the darkest moments of the recession, but rather remembering what it's like to be 19 years old.

[Jonathan Hill]

Why do you think people turn to music in particular in these moments? Like, what is it about music?

[John Ribeiro]

I never quite understand these nostalgia cycles. There's like 10 year ones, 15 year ones, 20 year ones. I do think that a lot of what happens is that the people who are producing music and distributing music and the people who are promoting music, again, they are millennials. And so the producers behind artists, who usually are a little bit younger than the producers and the songwriters, I'm not surprised that they're imbuing some of their influence. So I think some of it is just. I think people are just trying to relive their youth.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, so our listening habits may not be the greatest economic indicator, but what can we rely on to tell us if we're actually hitting the R word? We'll find out after this break.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

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[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, we're back with the Wall Street Journal's markets reporter, Hannah Aaron Lang. Okay, Hannah, I'm pretty sure I know the answer to this question, but I will ask it anyway. Are we in a recession?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I would say no. It's pretty safe to say we're not in a recession right now. There are many pieces of the economy that are still healthy by historical standards. Yeah, I think if you asked anybody on Wall street or in the economics community, the answer would be no.

[Jonathan Hill]

Okay, this brings me to a question posed by our who we heard from earlier.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok?

[Jonathan Hill]

Another listener named Isaac called in with a similar question.

[John Ribeiro]

I have a question about the recession indicators.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

There's all this talk about like the.

[John Ribeiro]

Stock market and the gdp.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

There's all sorts of different indicators. So among all of the indicators, like, what is the most significant at getting it, like the daily, everyday person's quality of life?

[Jonathan Hill]

What are the indicators normies should be on the lookout for?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

Well, I think a big one that I've mentioned already is reduced consumer spending. And some of these Internet recession indicators kind of get at this, right? When uncertainty is high, most of us cut back on the extras in our budget and look for maybe cheaper ways to cover the necessities. If that happens on a large scale across income brackets, that will absolutely slow the economy. And I think the big one for everyday people is the job market, right? When sales start to slow at companies, when the economy contracts, employers start making layoffs. And that obviously has a huge impact on somebody's life and would spur even more households to have to rein in Their spending. Right. So I think signs of what I would call the labor market getting weaker. Right. Which is more job cuts, the unemployment rate going up, hiring slowing even more significantly than it already has. And I should mention that an official recession can actually only be declared retroactively. So it can be hard to say. If we're in a recession right now.

[Jonathan Hill]

What would you recommend people do to prepare for a potential recession? I think that's the real question.

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

You know, I think if I had to give one tip, you know, the biggest thing I would say is probably an emergency fund. Anything from 3 to 12 months of living expenses saved. You really just want to have a cushion should something happen like a job loss. Right. I understand that might be really challenging for folks to prepare or build up right now, given the affordability challenges we faced over the past few years. But I think being prepared in the event of an unfortunate situation like that I think could be really beneficial.

[Jonathan Hill]

Are folks right to be worried about the economy now, or are we actually in a better place than we collectively feel like we are?

[Hannah Aaron Lang]

I think both of those things are true. Again, the economic data is relatively reassuring right now. The inflation rate has come down so much from where it was in 2022. Right. And the job market, as I've mentioned, is still healthy. Unemployment is still low. The layoff rate is still low. The stock market has rebounded. Right. It's back to where we were prior to the worst of the tariff turmoil kind of start. Right. On the other hand, I think it's absolutely true that this has been a very difficult economy to navigate for many people, particularly young people. Right. I think that, you know, if folks are sensing that this is a difficult economy to kind of get started in as an adult, like, I think that there are very real phenomena to point to that that backs up that case. Right. So I think it's both ends. And though not every recession indicator that we're labeling online is necessarily real by academic standards, I think the sentiment at the core of it is.

[Jonathan Hill]

That's it for this week. Before we go calling all dog owners. We know you probably know when your dog is hungry or lonely or happy, but do you feel like you have a deeper understanding of how your dog's feeling or what they're thinking about? If you're one of those people who uses the buttons to try to communicate with your pup, or if you have another story that illustrates your cosmic connection with your dog, send it in. Call 1-800-618-8545. This episode was produced by Hadi Milwaukti it was edited by our executive producer, Miranda Kennedy, fact checking by Melissa Hirsch and engineering by Matthew Billy. I'm your host, Jonathan Hill. Also, before I let you go, I gotta let you in on something. VOX Membership is having a sale. You can get over 30% off right now and you'll get exclusive perks like ad free podcasts. Members also get unlimited access to all of Vox's journalism. This support helps fund our work and we really rely on listeners like you. You can sign up now@vox box.com members.