Today, Explained: The Recession Indicator Game Episode Release Date: June 8, 2025 | Host: Vox's Sean Rameswaram and Noel King

Introduction to Recession Indicators

Timestamp: 01:06 – 05:30

The episode delves into the myriad of recession indicators circulating online, particularly those gaining traction on social media platforms like TikTok. Listener John Ribeiro from Boston initiates the conversation by questioning the validity of these online indicators compared to traditional economic metrics.

John Ribeiro [01:35]: "I wanted to know what are the real recession indicators outside of like the things that you see on TikTok?"

Hannah Aaron Lang, a Wall Street Journal Markets reporter, provides her perspective, emphasizing the widespread economic uncertainty lingering since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. She highlights persistent inflation and rising costs of essential goods as tangible signs of economic strain.

Hannah Aaron Lang [03:40]: "Everything is inflated. When I go into the grocery store, it's sticker shock."

Lang also references President Donald Trump's tariff policies announced in early April, which spooked investors and contributed to stock market volatility, further fueling recession fears.

Hannah Aaron Lang [04:15]: "I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession. And in the context of a recession, we'll see an extra 2 million people be unemployed."

Listener Questions and Expert Insights

Timestamp: 09:06 – 12:52

The discussion progresses to explore the variety of recession indicators trending online, ranging from the mundane to the peculiar. Examples include skincare companies selling eggs and changes in fashion trends such as shorter nails or the resurgence of low-rise jeans. Lang explains that while some indicators might seem trivial, they can offer insights into consumer behavior and spending patterns.

Jonathan Hill [05:34]: "There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now."

Lang points out that modern indicators are not entirely new; historical parallels like the hemline index from the 1920s demonstrate that unconventional metrics have long been used to gauge economic health.

Hannah Aaron Lang [10:13]: "Each time there was a dip, that would signal an economic downturn."

The conversation underscores that while social media often sensationalizes these indicators, many are rooted in real economic behaviors such as reduced discretionary spending and shifts in consumer priorities.

The Recession Indicator Game

Timestamp: 10:46 – 12:52

In a segment titled the Recession Indicator Game, Jonathan Hill presents various supposed indicators to Lang, who evaluates their plausibility based on economic principles. Examples discussed include:

• Press-On Nails:

  Lang [11:06]: "It could be that times are tough, you need to cut back. Maybe you're cutting manicures out of your budget."

• Statement Necklaces:

  Lang [11:14]: "Not so plausible. I'm not quite sure how that one could connect back to spending."

• Strip Club Tips:

  Lang [11:34]: "Maybe folks have less discretionary income and they just can't afford it."

• Whole Body Deodorant:

  Lang [12:08]: "That's debatable. Are we buying it because the hot water bill is too expensive or because we're too lazy to shower?"

• Paying in Cash for Liquor:

  Lang [12:28]: "I would need to see more data on that."

This interactive segment illustrates the subjective nature of many online recession indicators and emphasizes the importance of relying on robust economic data over anecdotal trends.

Recession Pop and Cultural Reflections

Timestamp: 14:28 – 23:47

The episode transitions to a cultural analysis of "Recession Pop", a genre coined post-fact to describe upbeat, bubblegum pop music from the Great Recession era (2007-2012) that continued to influence music beyond its inception. John Ribeiro contends that artists like Katy Perry epitomize this trend with tracks such as "Teenage Dream" and "Last Friday Night."

John Ribeiro [15:09]: "Recession pop is a made up after the fact genre referring to upbeat bubblegum pop music from the time of The Great Recession."

Lang and Ribeiro discuss whether current music trends mirror economic conditions. Ribeiro argues that despite the term's recent emergence, "Recession Pop" was more a reflection of the music industry's struggles during the Great Recession rather than a direct indicator of economic health.

John Ribeiro [22:00]: "Recession pop is very much a real thing and it's completely made up... it's only become part of the culture recently."

They conclude that while nostalgic music trends gain popularity, they may not serve as accurate economic indicators but rather as cultural nostalgia cycles influenced by the demographics of those in power within the music industry.

Preparing for a Potential Recession

Timestamp: 24:53 – 29:15

Returning to the core topic, Lang addresses the original query about real recession indicators relevant to the everyday person. She identifies reduced consumer spending and a weakening job market as primary indicators that directly impact individuals' quality of life.

Hannah Aaron Lang [25:54]: "A big one that I've mentioned already is reduced consumer spending."

Lang advises listeners to focus on practical measures to prepare for potential economic downturns, emphasizing the importance of maintaining an emergency fund covering 3 to 12 months of living expenses.

Hannah Aaron Lang [27:11]: "The biggest thing I would say is probably an emergency fund. Anything from 3 to 12 months of living expenses saved."

She balances the discussion by acknowledging that while current economic data such as low unemployment rates and a rebounded stock market suggest resilience, many people, especially younger generations, still feel the strain of a challenging economy.

Hannah Aaron Lang [27:54]: "I think it's both ends. ... I think the sentiment at the core of it is."

Conclusion

Timestamp: 29:15 – End

The episode wraps up by reaffirming that while online and social media-driven recession indicators may capture public sentiment, the most reliable signs remain traditional economic metrics like consumer spending and employment rates. Lang encourages listeners to remain informed and proactive in their financial planning to navigate potential economic uncertainties.

Key Takeaways:

• Recession indicators range from traditional economic data to unconventional social media trends.
• Consumer behavior and spending patterns are critical in assessing economic health.
• Cultural phenomena like Recession Pop reflect broader societal sentiments but are not definitive economic indicators.
• Practical financial preparedness, such as maintaining an emergency fund, is essential regardless of prevailing economic forecasts.

Notable Quotes:

• “I think it's more likely than not we're going to have a recession.” — Hannah Aaron Lang [04:15]
• “There is a super wide range of so called recession indicators online right now.” — Jonathan Hill [05:34]
• “The biggest thing I would say is probably an emergency fund.” — Hannah Aaron Lang [27:11]

This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of how economic concerns manifest both in traditional indicators and the evolving landscape of social media trends, offering listeners valuable insights into distinguishing between superficial signs and substantive economic data.