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Today, Explained
The Republicans bucking Trump
00:26:35
From a redistricting fight in Indiana to a wave of GOP retirements from Congress, there are signs MAGA's chokehold on the Republican Party may be loosening.
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President Trump was busy last weekend. Kennedy Center Honors.
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It's like sometimes you could say, like.
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People either have it or you don't.
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Great sound in this building. Crash the staff holiday party at the White House. Many of you have been with me.
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From the beginning, including the first term.
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And we love you all and I.
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Just want to wish you a Merry Christmas, a happy New Year, Happy Hanukkah.
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But all Trump wants for Christmas, it's for Indiana Republicans to pass a new congressional map.
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Truth Social.
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If they stupidly say no, vote them out of office. They are not worthy and I will be there to help. Thank you, Indiana. Trump thinks he can gerrymander his way to victory in the 2026 midterm elections, but some Indiana Republicans aren't buying it. Trump and his MAGA movement have taken over the gop, but in Indiana and beyond, there are some signs of cracks in the the coalition that's coming up on Today Explained from Vox.
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2025 was a wild year for the tech industry. AI seemed like it took over everyone's brains.
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It was the only thing anyone wanted to talk about. Nvidia became the most valuable company in the world.
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The House will be in order. The clerk may call the roll today. Yay.
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Explained.
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Yay. Adam Wren covers national politics for Politico. He's based in Indiana, where members of the State House just passed a new congressional map that heavily favors Republicans. President Trump is obsessed with redistricting right now all across the country, but he's become particularly focused on on this effort in Indiana.
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He brought it up this past weekend at the White House Christmas party. He's posting about it on Truth Social.
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The Indiana Senate must now pass this map as is and get it to Governor Mike Braun's desk ASAP to deliver a gigantic victory for Republicans in the Hoosier state and across the country.
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You know, he thinks that Indiana, a state that he once called Importantville because it allowed him to win the still contested GOP presidential primary in 2016. He thinks the key to maintaining the GOP majority in Congress runs through Indiana.
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So the new map will go to the state Senate next, where there seems to be some drama. Is this a certainty that this new map passes? And if not, what's the holdup?
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Not at all.
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A few weeks ago, the Indiana Senate took a test vote on this roll call.
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All right, a roll call cold.
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And the State Senate is 50 people, 40 Republicans, and they deadlocked 19 to 19 on whether or not to pass this.
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All in favor say aye.
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Oh, machine is open.
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So there was no majority. They were seven votes short of a majority. And so it's not at all clear this week that this map will pass out. Senate Republicans in Indiana are a much more sort of traditional kind of Republican, a pre Trump Republican Party. They're influenced more by former Vice President Mike Pence, former former Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels, who had a more traditional kind of Main Street Chamber of Commerce approach to their brand of Republicanism than Trump does. And so while Indiana is Trump state, it's not really a MAGA state. And so we're seeing divisions in the Trump Party that really could kind of foreshadow where things are headed in 2028.
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Yeah, I think this is what's important in this story. You definitely see the shades of maga, the shades of red, even in such a republic. Can you lay out some of the key players here? You mentioned people like former Governor Mike Pence, who are the people who matter most in determining whether these Senate Republicans will pass the new map.
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So the person who matters most is Senate President Pro Tempore Roderick Bray. He's a Republican who's been in office almost a decade and he's a third generation Republican lawmaker. So he has a really institutional minded approach and he thinks the credibility of the Indiana Senate is on the line and to redistrict cycle to him is an anathema. And then Governor Mike Braun, he is kind of a MAGA Republican who owes his political career entirely to Trump. Braun was in a 2018 three way Senate Republican primary to go up against former Senator Joe Donnelly. And Trump endorsed him in that primary and elevated him and he won. And then Braun found himself in another Republican gubernatorial primary last year, and Trump endorsed them again and he won. And so Trump is essential posted to True Social that Mike Braun owes him one on this.
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Also a friend of mine, Governor Mike Braun, perhaps is not working the way he should to get the necessary votes, considering that Mike wouldn't be governor without me, not even close. Is disappointing.
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He's in his first year in office and he's blown much of his political capital on this. So he's trying to get the maps through, but doesn't have a lot of juice here. And he and Trump are threatening to primary as well as Charlie Kirk's Turning Point. They just announced last Friday they're gonna spend eight figures to primary any Indiana Senate Republican who votes against this this week.
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Yeah, you know, I remember following Charlie and Turning Point's efforts in Nebraska last year to try to change the electoral vote count there, and it was a big focus of theirs to kind of push on red states to become even redder. Now, when you mentioned these Senate Republicans that are holding firm, like, can you take me through their logic? I mean, is it just the commitment to norms? Is it just the commitment to the institutions of the Senate?
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Well, it's, it's pre fascinating, Astead, because these people have Senate districts, too, that sort of undergird the congressional districts.
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And so the argument from Trump and the White House and other Republicans allied with their effort is that, hey, you know, Joe Biden's census, it wasn't his census, by the way, it was run by President Donald Trump. But Joe Biden's census was got it wrong. It overcounted people and it yielded unfair maps. And so what these Senate Republicans are saying is, wait a second, if the 2020 census was unfair, how is it that we only need to change the congressional maps and not our own Senate maps that are smaller than those congressional districts? How is that possible that our districts are fair, but the congressional ones aren't? It sort of gives up the argument here and it tells the truth that this is really about protecting the Republican majority in Congress alone. And so they're asking that question and they're sort of doing something which a lot of Republicans at any level of national office haven't done in 2025, which is question sort of the underlying case, and kind of avoid reading the stage directions aloud. And they're saying, wait a second, this doesn't quite add up here.
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So how has Trump reacted to this resistance from state Republican lawmakers? Because as you mentioned, this isn't the type of resistance he's facing on the Federal level.
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You know, he posted to True Social over the weekend, why would a real.
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Republican vote against this when the Dems been doing it for years? If they stupidly say no, vote them out of office, they are not worthy and I will be there to help. Thank you. Indiana.
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How would any real Republican oppose these maps? And the question embedded in that is interesting because for the last decade in American politics, Trump has said that he's the one who defines what MAGA is. He's the only adjudicator of that. But what we're seeing here are sort of ideological cleavages that suggest that the MAGA brand hasn't really filtered down to the state legislative level yet, even after 10 years in a way that could kind of point to kind of a Trump free future where the Republican Party does change and does morph and does evolve beyond its current brand nationally.
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Yeah, in this story you definitely see the growing question of who are Republicans beyond maybe Donald Trump, as they might sort to have to ask themselves. I want to kind of put that in front of us here. Do we think that kind of Trump's waning influence on these Senate Republicans? Or at least that what it looks like for now is somewhat just due to the fact that, hey, this is a president who won't be running again. This is a lame duck president.
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I think that's absolutely right. I mean, you saw a lot of the movement in a number of red states after the off year elections in New Jersey and Virginia where some of these Republican lawmakers said, wait a second, why do we have to redistrict? I mean, this president just got bruised at the ballot box and we don't feel the same pressure we did even just a day before.
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We're not Texas, we're not North Carolina, nor should we act like them. We are part of the oldest legislative body in the country and we should be different and we should be better.
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And so they're saying that privately and in some cases publicly. You've seen New Hampshire kick this can down the road. And so interestingly, in some ways we're seeing at the end of a maximalist year for the President that federalism in some of these red states is working, that the division of power between federal and state lawmakers is kind of holding in a way that a lot of other institutions and even private news companies are not as they're folding. The traditional idea of local control in state legislatures is to a certain extent holding up.
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When we think about what happens now, these senators are continuing to give pressure. How do we think the vote is gonna go this week. What are we looking for in terms of next steps?
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Yeah, it's a knife's edge here, Estad. It's hard to say what's going to happen. The White House is watching closely. There are a group of about 10 Republican senators who have not publicly announced where they're at. Only one Republican senator, only one Republican elected official who's voting on these new maps has held an actual town hall with voters and their own district. None of the others have gone public. And that Republican Greg Good, has been on the receiving end of a swatting attempt. About a dozen Senate Republicans have been either swatted or faced with threats of pipe bombs after President Donald Trump posted their names on Truth Social and has gone after them. And so it does feel like that.
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Is an increasing part of the.
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Tension, particularly when we talk about folks who oppose Donald Trump. We're talking about baked in threats of violence that seem to have bubbled to the forefront here.
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Yeah, and it's an incredible precedent that's gonna be set in American politics this week because if the Senate, ultimately on a knife's edge, votes for this, and essentially there's a matter of only one or two votes that it passes by, one of the takeaways could be that threats of violence work to shape our politics going forward.
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The last thing I'll say is Donald Trump does have a successful track record of pressuring out, you know, those who have criticized him, particularly in Congress. He was able to do that with the folks who voted for impeachment after January 6th. I think about critics like Liz Cheney, who lost in kind of historic margins. I see where the White House is, I see where the elected officials are. Is there any sense of where the Republican voter is?
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What's remarkable is that public poll after public poll commissioned in Indiana show that this is remarkably unpopular, even among Trump's own voters. They do not like this. And you really see this in the polling. There's a sense of fairness that pervades Indiana politics among Republicans and Democrats alike. And they think that this is an unfair move to have this power in Washington, D.C. coming to Indiana and trying to inject something on these small towns that a lot of voters just don't want.
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That's Adam Rand with Politico. Coming up, it's not just state Republicans who are getting tired of the MAGA meat grinder. Some Republicans in Congress are just calling it quits.
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You're listening to TODAY Explained.
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I'm Leanne Caldwell. I am the chief Washington correspondent for Puck News, and I cover Washington in politics and mostly Congress.
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Politics, power, Congress, all things we're interested in today. And I know in the last few weeks we've heard quite a few Congresspeople say they're going to retire, even resign. What is the scope of this angst in Congress? What's the source of it?
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Yeah, so the scope could be pretty big.
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You know, I'm hearing from Republican sources, lawmakers, aides, people close to these people who are expecting a lot more retirement announcements in the coming weeks.
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Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene intends to resign.
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From her seat in the House effective early January.
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There's an actual possibility that the House.
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Could flip, not because of any more.
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Elections, but just because enough of them.
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Leave, enough of them quit.
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I mean, there's so many reasons for it. But I'll, you know, the most immediate is just kind of the political environment right now. It's been a really tough fall for Republicans. They had completely underperformed in those November elections.
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In New Jersey, Democratic Congressmember Mikey Sherrill won the governor's race, defeating Jack Cittarelli. In Virginia, Democrats reclaimed full control of the state's executive branch as Abigail Spanberger flipped the governorship, becoming Virginia's first female governor.
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This general election is so important because it poses as an early test of Donald Trump's presidency and the temperature of voters heading into midterm election year. There was a special election in Tennessee, where, you know, it was a very red district that Trump won by 22 points. The Republican who won only won by 9 points.
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This is a 13 point gain for.
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The Democrats in terms of the margin and excuse time for Republicans is over.
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Because I the deep red Tennessee 7th congressional district may have some hints of personality purple, judging by the tight race during Tuesday's election. It's just another data point of the political environment and the mood of the country around Republicans right now. People are looking at that and seeing the writing on the wall and believing that the House Republicans are not going to be in the majority after the midterms, that they'll lose the majority.
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Republicans are facing serious destruction in the 2026 midterms.
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Republicans are sitting on the thinnest majority possible.
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Trump's freaking out about the midterms.
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The President is on the ballot in.
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2026 and it's not a very fun place to be.
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The thing about serving in the House is you get to reevaluate your life every two years. And you know, we're in that season where people, Republicans especially, are deciding if it's worth it. And I'm told that many more Repub Republicans are going to say that it's not.
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Does your reporting give you any sense of number and how can we compare that possible number to maybe ones we've seen previously? I would love to get a sense of how much we know this might be bigger than before.
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An estimate that one source told me was near 20 more Republicans are set to retire.
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That's a seismic number.
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It is already at this point, we're already at 23 Republicans who have announced. So it also talks about the mood of the Congress. People are just not happy right now.
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A
So are Dems retiring in these type of numbers? And when they are quitting, is it for the same reasons?
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So Democrats are retiring too? Of course, it happens every year, but the numbers are lower for Democrats and the reasons are different. You look at the list of Republicans and Democrats so far who have announced their retirement, the Democrats, it's either most of them are old, in their late 70s or 80s, or they have served for decades. You have Nancy Pelosi as one of the Democrats who are. Who is retiring?
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Jerry Nadler here in New York.
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Yeah, totally. So it's different on the Republican side, the people who have already announced that they're retiring. You have Troy Nails who has been here for, he was elected in 2020, so five years. You have Morgan Luttrell of Texas. He just started serving in 2023. He's young. A lot of members who are younger, who haven't been here that long are deciding to call it quits. And that is really what's different.
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Republicans have had tough moments before. Donald Trump has been unpopular before. You know, like what is it about this year in this time or the next midterm that might have been different than just general other bouts of, you know, Trump controversy. Cuz that's come and gone this term.
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Donald Trump has so much control over this Congress. They govern in fear. They do what he says because they're afraid of, you know, Marjorie Taylor Greene said this on 60 Minutes. I think they're terrified to step out of line and get a nasty truth social post on them. Threats of political violence have only increased and everyone knows that if your name is in a true social and negatively, there will be an uptick for that person. And so that is just something that these members have been dealing with for a long time. And that has led to retirements in the past. And so the ability to be an independent member of Congress has really, really diminished. And people are feeling that they are frustrated with Speaker Johnson. They think that he is kind of also playing into the demands of the President rather than what the members want and need. They were frustrated that they were out of town for seven weeks during the government shutdown. It's also one of the least productive Congresses in modern history. You know, the last Congress was really unproductive and this one is way more unproductive. If you look at legislation that has been passed and I'll give you some numbers.
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A
Yeah, I would love to, because I guess I'm saying my baseline for their unproductiveness is already so high, like I already baked into the cost so much. So give us some context.
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B
Yeah. So the last Congress, 274 bills were signed into law. So 274 over two years. We're one year into this Congress. They've only passed 45 bills have been signed into law. That's, you know, big legislation, that's small resolutions, that's like, like they are just not doing anything. And legislators get frustrated. Many of them actually come to legislate. And when they are not able to deliver for their district, when they're not able to take home wins and projects and money, people are asking themselves, what is the point?
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A
What is Speaker Johnson doing about this? It would seem as if these retirements continue, he would have a little bit of a crisis on his hands. And even when we think about things like redistricting efforts and others, he has really chosen to be on the side of Donald Trump 120%. How has that blowback impacted his own caucus? And when they're upset with him, what exactly is the reason why?
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They obviously don't want to see a lot of retirements because it just looks bad. It's an indictment of Congress, of the job, and, you know, Speaker Johnson, it's kind of also an indictment on him, too. Unable to keep these members happy, unable to make them feel that they are productive members of society, essentially, you know, productive legislators. And that's just not happening right now. People are, you know, really down.
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A
You know, the speakership seems like such a difficult job. It has eaten up the last several Republican GOP speakers. I mean, if we think about that role as one that holds together many different parts of the Republican Party, is it always just destined to be this fraught, or is that a consequence of our kind of current Congress and polarization? Like, what is the universe that Mike Johnson makes it out on the other side here with the united gop?
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Oh, I, gosh, I think that every day that becomes a harder and harder task for him, especially when the, when you look at polling, Trump's approval ratings continue to fall.
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Four different polls that have just come out looking.
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C
This is the big picture question. Do you approve of how Trump is.
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Handling his job as president?
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The low end, 39% approval. The high end, only 43% approval.
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A
There are gas station bathrooms on yellow with higher approval ratings than Donald Trump right now.
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B
They're divided on a message. They're divided on how to deal with health care and the affordability issue. And so Speaker Johnson coming out on the other side with the united gop, maybe, but it's going to be wounded and exhausted and tired and really cranky. And so the question is, you know, if they don't win the majority, what does Speaker Johnson do? There's definitely going to be leadership changes. And so there could be a huge shakeup among House Republicans. You know, after the midterms.
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After all.
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A
That talk about Democrats and their kind of fractured state, there are certainly some cracks that seem to be appearing on the Republican side, too.
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B
Yeah, absolutely. And Republicans are really worried about how the party is dealing with these trying times right now for them.
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A
Leanne Caldwell, Puck News Today's show was produced by Kelly Wezinger, Avishai Artsy and edited by Jolie Myers. Laura Bullard was on fax. Patrick Boyd and David Tadishore engineered. I'm Estet Herndon, and today we have something special for you all. Noelle and I are doing an exclusive conversation on vox's brand new Patreon account. We're talking about the biggest stories of 2025, the stories we thought were undercovered, and the things we have our eyes on heading into 2026. Plus, we'll be answering some of your questions when you join us on Patreon. You'll get exclusive access to the full conversation and you'll also unlock other members Only video series, plus a bunch of great other perks. And you'll be supporting the work we do here at Today Explained. If you're already a Vox member, you already have access to this, but if not, go to patreon.com Vox right now to join. That's patreon.com Vox this is today Explained.
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C
Sam.