The two dolls economy

Summary

Podcast Summary: Today, Explained – Episode: The Two Dolls Economy

Title: The Two Dolls Economy
Host: Vox
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Noel King
Release Date: May 6, 2025
Description: Today, Explained is Vox's daily news explainer podcast. Hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noel King guide listeners through the most important stories of the day. This episode delves into the intricacies of the ongoing trade war, particularly focusing on tariffs, supply chain disruptions, and their broader economic implications.

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1. Introduction to the Trade War and Tariff Impacts

The episode begins with a discussion about President Trump's recent comments regarding the trade war and its potential impact on American consumers. When pressed by a reporter about possible shortages due to the trade war, Trump responded dismissively.

Noel King [00:02]:
"President Trump was put on the spot last week when a reporter asked whether Americans should expect shortages as a result of his trade war. He gave a classic off the cuff answer."

Kristen Welker [00:10]:
"You know, somebody said, oh, the shelves are going to be open. Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know."

Trump later revisits his statement, maintaining his stance and suggesting a reduction in the quantity of goods, such as dolls, available to consumers.

Kristen Welker [00:28]:
"I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs that's 11 years old, needs to have 30 dolls."

King highlights the economic experts' concerns about the inevitability of shortages due to disrupted supply chains, hinting at broader implications beyond just toys and stationery.

Noel King [00:45]:
"Wild economists say if you look at what's coming into the US on ships from China, shortages are nearly guaranteed. Shortages of what, though, other than dolls and pencils? Answers to Come on TODAY explained."

2. Expert Insights: Supply Chain Disruptions

Lorianne LaRocco, CNBC's global supply chain reporter and author of Trade Containers Don't Lie, provides an in-depth analysis of current supply chain issues.

Lorianne LaRocco [02:19]:
"The containers are telling us right now that in the coming weeks we are going to see shelves starting to get a lot thinner. Maybe not bare, but we will definitely see less items on the shelf."

She explains that a significant portion of household goods in the U.S. rely on components from China, and disruptions there can halt entire product lines.

Lorianne LaRocco [02:19]:
"If you look around your apartment or your house or condo, 90% of everything that is in your home comes on a vessel. And a lot of those products come from China."

Liz Young [03:33]:
"Yeah, we see across the industry about a 60% decline in ocean freight bookings from China to the US now. Yeah. There's been a collapse of outbound freight out of China into the United States. It is really dark times for ocean shipping."

LaRocco emphasizes the severity of the situation, noting that upcoming tariff increases could exacerbate price hikes for consumers.

Lorianne LaRocco [03:46]:
"Especially the next time you want to go buy a flat screen television. I would say probably in the middle of June and then after they will be more expensive."

3. De Minimis Rule and Its Revisions

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to explaining the de minimis rule, its historical context, and recent changes initiated by President Trump.

Noel King [15:21]:
"Okay, so we're gathered here today to commemorate the policy known as de minimis. What is de minimis?"

An expert explains that the de minimis rule exempts low-value goods from tariffs, a provision that has evolved over time.

Unknown Speaker [15:28]:
"It's a phrase that comes from Latin that essentially means it's of little value... it was originally aimed at helping Americans bring back little like souvenirs and things from traveling abroad. I believe it started at a dollar back then, and it's been increased several times over the years, most recently from $200 in 2016 to $800."

President Trump's recent policy change abolishes the de minimis exemption specifically for goods originating from China and Hong Kong, imposing stricter entry procedures and substantial tariffs.

Unknown Speaker [18:20]:
"So this in early April, President Trump had decided to end the de minimis exemption for goods made in China. It went into effect just this past Friday... they are subject to more formal entry procedures... subject to that 145% base tariff..."

The rationale behind this move is to curb the flow of illicit goods, such as fentanyl, and to address concerns over labor practices in regions like Xinjiang.

Unknown Speaker [19:16]:
"The President says that this is a change that's needed to help stop the flow of fentanyl into the country... they're worried that this loophole could help allow for goods made from the Xinjiang region to enter the country."

4. Consumer and Business Reactions

The removal of the de minimis exemption has led to immediate reactions from both consumers and businesses.

Consumer Frustrations:

Several consumers express frustration over the sudden price increases and unexpected taxes on imported goods.

Noel King [21:03]:
"I'm so pissed. My $276 balance is now $743."

Unknown Speaker [21:12]:
"I am feeling like I want to die and that this is complete torture. I just deleted the app."

Others highlight the financial strain caused by the new tariffs, making previously affordable items significantly more expensive.

Business Perspectives:

Interestingly, some American business owners view the policy change as a potential leveling of the playing field against Chinese competitors like Shein and Temu, which have dominated the market with low-priced goods.

Unknown Speaker [21:44]:
"Some American business owners say this is going to help them better compete. They say that their businesses have really struggled in recent years with this flood of goods from China that's much, much cheaper and has undercut them on price."

5. Impact on E-commerce Giants: Shein and Temu

The episode examines how major Chinese e-commerce platforms are adjusting to the new trade policies.

Cost Increases:

Both Shein and Temu have begun increasing their prices in response to the tariffs, attempting to maintain profitability despite higher import costs.

Unknown Speaker [20:16]:
"It's still early, so this only took effect Friday. ... Temu and Shein have been increasing prices on their websites."

Examples of price hikes include a portable air conditioner humidifier fan increasing from $21 to $30 and men's athletic shorts rising from $23 to $56.

Adaptation Strategies:

To circumvent the tariffs, Shein has established manufacturing partnerships in countries like Brazil, Turkey, and India, allowing them to benefit from de minimis exemptions when goods are shipped from these regions.

Unknown Speaker [17:03]:
"She is their new favorite store, often coming directly from China to US Shoppers... Shein is my new favorite store..."

Sales and Revenue:

Despite these changes, Shein and Temu continue to report substantial revenue growth, although at a decelerating pace compared to previous years.

Unknown Speaker [16:49]:
"Shein's revenue last year had grown 19% over the year before to $38 billion... Temu were looking at something similar... revenue had climbed 24%."

6. Market Reactions and Future Outlook

The stock market has shown resilience, bouncing back from previous losses despite ongoing trade tensions. Experts suggest that the market may be banking on potential resolutions to the trade war or optimistic anticipations of future trade deals.

Lorianne LaRocco [09:43]:
"The market doesn't know anything... The smart money is banking on optimism. They're banking on the possible promises of trade deals to be made."

LaRocco emphasizes that the trade war's impact is still unfolding, with significant implications for jobs and the broader economy.

Lorianne LaRocco [07:48]:
"This is more than just getting our cheap product. It's about jobs, it's about moving the truck workers, the warehousing, all of these people. The world of trade is connected on so many different levels."

She advises that the situation is fluid, with companies needing to navigate uncertainty and make strategic decisions amidst fluctuating tariffs and supply chain disruptions.

7. Conclusion: The Broader Economic Implications

The episode wraps up by highlighting the complex interplay between consumer behavior, business strategies, and governmental policies. The removal of the de minimis exemption represents a significant shift in trade policy, aiming to protect domestic industries but also posing challenges for both consumers and businesses accustomed to low-cost Chinese imports.

Lorianne LaRocco [24:46]:
"I agree. It feels like in my lifetime there has been this push more and more over the years toward cheaper and cheaper goods... There's now this tension between that and the ways the changing trade policy could serve to stop that flow of goods."

LaRocco underscores the uncertainty that looms over the supply chain and logistics industries, as companies grapple with adapting to new trade realities.

Lorianne LaRocco [25:51]:
"A lot of the companies I cover are grappling with the uncertainty and trying to figure out, well, what changes should we make, but also what changes should we wait to make until we know where the buck ultimately falls."

Final Thoughts:

The podcast concludes by reiterating the interconnectedness of global trade and the far-reaching consequences of policy changes. As the U.S. navigates its trade relationships, both consumers and businesses must adapt to a landscape marked by increased costs and strategic realignments.

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Notable Quotes:

• Kristen Welker [00:10]:
  "Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls."

• Lorianne LaRocco [02:19]:
  "90% of everything that is in your home comes on a vessel. And a lot of those products come from China."

• Unknown Speaker [18:20]:
  "They are subject to that 145% base tariff that the President has put in place."

• Noel King [21:03]:
  "I'm so pissed. My $276 balance is now $743."

• Lorianne LaRocco [24:46]:
  "There's now this tension between that and the ways the changing trade policy could serve to stop that flow of goods."

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This episode of Today, Explained provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of U.S.-China trade relations, focusing on the tangible impacts of policy changes on supply chains, consumers, and businesses. Through expert analysis and firsthand accounts, listeners gain a nuanced understanding of the complexities involved in modern global trade dynamics.

Transcript

[Noel King]

President Trump was put on the spot last week when a reporter asked whether Americans should expect shortages as a result of his trade war. He gave a classic off the cuff answer.

[Kristen Welker]

You know, somebody said, oh, the shelves are going to be open. Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know.

[Noel King]

Then he had some time to think about it further and decided he's right.

[Kristen Welker]

I don't think a beautiful baby girl needs that's 11 years old, needs to have 30 dolls.

[Noel King]

Here he is on NBC's Meet the Press with Kristen Welker when they could have $3 instead of $30.

[Kristen Welker]

Are you saying they don't need Americans.

[Noel King]

Could see empty store shelves?

[Kristen Welker]

No, I'm, no, I'm not saying that. I'm just saying they don't need to have $30. They can have three, they don't need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.

[Noel King]

Wild economists say if you look at what's coming into the US on ships from China, shortages are nearly guaranteed. Shortages of what, though, other than dolls and pencils? Answers to Come on TODAY explained.

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[Today Explained]

This is Today explained.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

My name is Lorianne LaRocco and I am the global supply chain reporter for CNBC and I'm also the author of Trade Containers Don't Lie.

[Noel King]

All right, so what are the containers telling us right now?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

The containers are telling us right now that in the coming weeks we are going to see shelves starting to get a lot thinner. Maybe not bare, but we will definitely see less items on the shelf. When you're looking at the US Supply chain and you're looking at what we bring in, it doesn't matter if it's made in America or even assembled in America, which you're going to hear a lot of that in the coming months. Assembled in America doesn't mean that it's. All the components are made in America and you will have assembled in America. Products no longer being able to be made because the components come from China. If you look around your apartment or your house or condo, 90% of everything that is in your home comes on a vessel. And a lot of those products come from China. So furniture, appliances, your laptops, your cell phones. Because remember, it's that supply chain standpoint. It may not be 100% from China, but the components that make it critical to get them done, they're from China.

[Liz Young]

Yeah, we see across the industry about a 60% decline in ocean freight bookings from China to the US now. Yeah. There's been a collapse of outbound freight out of China into the United States. It is really dark times for ocean shipping.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

Especially the next time you want to go buy a flat screen television. I would say probably in the middle of June and then after they will be more expensive. And the reason why I'm being targeted, if you will, from like the June standpoint is the fact that the 145% plus tariff from China has not been deployed until May 27. May 27 is the day that all items that are coming from China will have that new level of tariff applied to them. The tariffs that are being deployed can easily be digested by the retailer or brand. Because it's 20%, yes, it's a lot more, but it's not the 145 that is going to be. You cannot absorb that. And that's when you're gonna see the high price.

[Noel King]

I remember in the days before Liberation Day, friends and family members told me they were panic buying stuff. We're gonna go and get new tires, we're gonna go and get a car. Somebody was buying wine. I can't even remember who. Does it make sense to panic buy anything right now?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

You know, I would say panic buying is like the worst thing that we can do because that's what happened with the toilet paper. It's happening again. Panic buying amid the pandemic, Customers walking.

[Unknown Speaker]

The aisles multiple times hoping to get lucky.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

We made toilet paper in the United.

[Noel King]

States during the pandemic.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

During the pandemic. I mean, if we can't learn anything from that, please do not go and panic buy. I would say that if you're on a budget, like say you've got kids, right? And you're staring down, back to school, do something smart and like go to your favorite retailer, go now, right, and buy their, their fall clothes on discount. That way if they do have that growth spurt, you're not going to be really upset, right, if they outgrow it. But you know, if you need to get that laptop for your college student or that flat screen tv, buy it before the middle of June. But that's not like a panic buy, that's like almost like being like strategic like in your dollars.

[Noel King]

Do you think this will be like the pandemic?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

I don't think it will be because of a couple of things. So back during the pandemic, the US Consumer was at a healthier standpoint. We did not have inflation and we were all stuck at home. So, you know, we couldn't go anywhere. So our vacation money went to, you know, going to buy a ping pong table or whatever. Now we've got inflation. People are scared to spend money. And it's this unknown in terms of the trade war is global. And so like you mentioned your friend with wine, I mean, I can understand with your friend because I'm a huge Italian wine drinker. And so I was just like, well, should I, should I stock up on my favorite Brunello? You know, that I can understand. But you know, but it's going to be different in terms of we will have the supply chain crunch, we will have supply chain shortages, but it'll be in select items, but everything will be a lot more expensive. And so I really feel feel about this like transitory inflation because supply chain is like a series of pipes. It's plumbing. Trade has to flow. And so eventually if and when these trade wars get handled, you're going to have these paw but pause buttons be unpaused. And then you're going to have all of these orders trying to get on a limited amount of vessels that is going to increase the price of the product. So if we're paying crazy prices in a month from now, and then the pause button gets unpaused, those prices are going to go even higher because logistics prices are passed on to the consumer. So heaven knows where we will be going.

[Noel King]

You're saying that even if President Trump does backpedal, which he's been known to do when things get dire, that doesn't negate the conversation we're having?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

No. And because when it comes to the supply chain, think of a timeline, okay. During this time between now and early June, this is when the retailers, both small and large, so we're talking about even like the mom and pop retailers, okay, all the way to the Walmarts. This is when they actually start placing their orders for the holidays. Because those items have to be here in the United States by August or September, the absolute latest. And so you've got to tick backwards. It takes anywhere from two to four weeks for those items to arrive from China by the, by the vessel. But then you have to tag on at least a two to four weeks to make the product. So this is like now or never. And how can a company make orders, right, prepare orders if they don't know A, if we're going to buy anything and B, how are we going to pay 145%. So all of this uncertainty is leading to this decision gridlock and that's why nothing is being made. So this is more than just getting our cheap product. It's about jobs, it's about moving the truck workers, the warehousing, all of these people. The world of trade is connected on so many different levels.

[Noel King]

Lori, over the last 10 days, right up until Monday, the stock market, instead of looking wobbly, has been on an upward tear, making back a lot of the losses that followed Liberation Day. I would think that the markets would be paralyzed as they await this shock. What do you think is going on? What does the market know that we don't?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

The market doesn't know anything. The market is literally. No, no, it's. The smart money is banking on optimism. They're banking on the possible promises of trade deals to be made. Last week we had Lutnick on and he was saying that there was a deal.

[Kristen Welker]

I have a deal.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

Done, done, done. And we were like, well, what deal was it? I'm not gonna tell you what country.

[Unknown Speaker]

Let the President decide. It's just you and me here and.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

A couple million people hopefully will let the President decide. So he couldn't tell us and then he proceeded to say, I need to wait for their prime minister and their parliament to give its approval. Well then it's not a deal. It's rhetoric. And when it comes to the markets and when it comes to the traders, because everything is fear based and it's that knee jerk reaction. They're reacting to these possible headlines. They're not looking at the long term.

[Noel King]

You get to talk to people like Secretary Lutnick, which is very cool if you were able to give him advice, to tell him, look, here's what you and the Trump administration should do. Now, what would your advice be?

[Lorianne LaRocco]

My advice would be like, you gotta use A little bit of honey to get where you wanna go. It would be great to make things in America. But from everything who I've spoken with, both from a supply chain standpoint, from a cover, you know, a company standpoint, there's not enough people in order to do the job. There's not enough educational level of people to do the job. And also are you going to subsidize the small businesses? Noel, I have one contact. Their container, they were paying for one $40,000 in tariff. That same container is now going to be a million dollars. Oh, how the heck are they going to pay that? They can't. It's not just paying the tariff, it's the intricacies, it's the jobs. Like this person, they assemble in America so now they're gonna have to close up shop, they're gonna have to fire their manufacturing staff. Then the trucking company that moved their product, they're gonna be out of people. You know, the lunch rooms that you know, service, the people that went out to lunch, they're gonna have less people to serve lunch to. There's a whole ecosystem here. And so my advice to the Trump administration would be look at the entire supply chain and, and how everybody is in is interconnected because that's what makes the economy great and they fail to see that.

[Noel King]

Lori Ann LaRocco, she covers the supply chain for CNBC and she wrote Trade war Containers don't lie. Up next, yet another reason you're now paying more for those cheap goods from China. It's de minimis. Stay turned.

[Liz Young]

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[Unknown Speaker]

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[Lorianne LaRocco]

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[Lorianne LaRocco]

This is today Explained.

[Unknown Speaker]

My name is Liz Young. I'm a reporter at the Wall Street Journal and I cover supply chain and logistics.

[Noel King]

Okay. So we're gathered here today to commemorate the policy known as de minimis. What is de minimis?

[Unknown Speaker]

It's a phrase that comes from Latin that essentially means it's of little value. So many countries around the world have minimis trade provisions, and in essence it means it's not worth the government's time to collect tariffs on small goods. You know, it's just not that much money that they're going to get from the process. So in the US the provision dates to 1938. It was originally aimed at helping Americans bring back little like souvenirs and things from traveling abroad. I believe it started at a dollar back then, and it's been increased several times over the years, most recently from $200 in 2016 to $800.

[Noel King]

I just want to make sure I have this right. The idea is if I'm ordering something from overseas and it costs less than $800, there's no tax on it coming into the country.

[Unknown Speaker]

That's correct.

[Noel King]

Okay, so I'm assuming that it's used less on souvenirs these days and more on things that I am buying on the Internet. Yeah.

[Unknown Speaker]

So over the past decade, we've seen usage of this skyrocket. I mean, it has absolutely swelled. And that has been driven by Chinese based or Chinese founded sellers who are shipping parcels directly to consumers in the US From China. So the most popular of these, of course, being Shein and Temu. Hey, guys, here's a summer Shein haul.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

Oh, my gosh.

[Unknown Speaker]

Look what just came in. Let's do a huge $1 Temu haul. Let's do it. They sell fast fashion apparel. They sell little tchotchke type goods of all kinds. This top is so freaking cute. Hello.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

Buy this right now.

[Unknown Speaker]

Okay, first I got these two phone cases because I don't really like my phone case.

[Noel King]

This looking fire, though.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

I'm not going to lie.

[Noel King]

Hold up.

[Unknown Speaker]

Shein is my new favorite store, often coming directly from China to US Shoppers. And that's, that's been something that, you know, has really pushed up the volume of these packages. We went from 400 million of these entering the US in 2018 to 1.36 billion last year. Shein's revenue last year had grown 19% over the year before to $38 billion. But that was less than the increases of the previous few years where it had grown 40% year over year. Temu were looking at something similar. You know, their most recent quarterly report showed that revenue had climbed 24%, but that was their slowest pace of growth again since 2022. So we've been seeing them grow at this Hu.

[Noel King]

All right, so President Trump was also seeing them grow at this huge rate, and he decided that de minimis is very.

[Unknown Speaker]

It's a big deal. It's a big scam going on.

[Noel King]

The de minimis rule wasn't working or needed to be changed. What did he do exactly?

[Unknown Speaker]

So in early April, President Trump had decided to end the de minimis exemption for goods made in China. It went into effect just this past Friday, so very recently. And what that does is it cracks down specifically on goods made in China and Hong Kong. So it doesn't matter where things are shipped from. It doesn't matter if they're shipped through another country. What matters is they were made in China originally. And those goods are now subject to more formal entry procedures than they were before. That means more paperwork, etc. They also are subject to that 145% base tariff that the President has put in place, plus any additional tariffs that they already would have faced before that based on what the item is. So that's based on, you know, is it a sneaker? What type of sneaker, what type of materials is it made out of? All of those kinds of things.

[Noel King]

Is this specifically targeted at goods coming from China?

[Unknown Speaker]

This is, yes. So this is something where the President says that this is a change that's needed to help stop the flow of fentanyl into the country. And lawmakers of both parties in recent years have expressed concerns about what is coming into the country through these methods. They've expressed concerns about the cotton, for example, that is incorporated in some of the clothing. They're worried that this quote, loophole that they call it could help allow for goods made from the Xinjiang region enter the country.

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How concerned are you that the Chinese companies could take advantage of de minimis to ship goods potentially made with forced.

[Unknown Speaker]

Labor into the United States?

[Noel King]

Maybe I'll start briefly, but can say.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

That I share your concern with this.

[Noel King]

She and Timu very popular among American consumers. How are consumers reacting to the changes?

[Unknown Speaker]

It's still early, so this only took effect Friday. So this of course, will have a little bit of a delayed effect as packages start to enter the country now. Already Temu and Shein have been increasing prices on their websites.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

Look at a portable air conditioner humidifier fan. It was 21 bucks. Now it's going up to 30. This three pack of men's athletic shorts went from $23 to $56 after retailer Temu added a more than $32 import charge into the shopp.

[Unknown Speaker]

So far, American consumers have responded. I mean, I've seen social media posts where people are seeing charges coming in from parcel carriers saying, hey, you have to pay this tax before we can deliver your package. Consumers are expressing frustration about that.

[Noel King]

I'm so pissed. My $276 balance is now $743.

[Lorianne LaRocco]

I am feeling like I want to die and that this is complete torture. I just deleted the app.

[Unknown Speaker]

Just also general frustration about the cost of the tariffs. I mean, these are going to be pretty hefty tariffs that are placed on these goods. Like I said, the 145%, that's just the base. So it's something that a lot of consumers are seeing that, okay, this is going to push up prices in one way or another.

[Noel King]

She and has started charging the girls tariffs and the girls on TikTok are mad about it. She and prepared us but I wasn't prepared.

[Unknown Speaker]

But I will also note that some American business owners say this is going to help them better compete. They say that their businesses have really struggled in recent years with this flood of goods from China that's much, much cheaper and has undercut them on price. So they're hopeful that this kind of levels the playing field.

[Noel King]

That actually makes complete sense because the advantage that Shein and Temu have is it's I mean, it's not quality. We've all seen like the croissant lamp. It is, it's its price, right? So if Americans can no longer buy Sheehan and Timu stuff at rock bottom, rock bottom, rock bottom prices, what happens to those companies? Are they kind of screwed?

[Unknown Speaker]

They definitely could lose their price advantage now that they face these tariffs. We've seen, like I said, the prices have been going up some 40 to 100% over the past few weeks. And some analysts have said customers might switch to Amazon. They might just go back to the old familiar website that they'd been using before. That said, there are some important caveats to this. Sheehan and Temu have both made a lot of changes in recent years to the way their supply chains work in anticipation of this exemption going away. And what that includes is that Shein, for example, has manufacturing partners set up in Brazil, Turkey, and India, and they can still ship goods into the US Duty free through de minimis from those countries. Because this, this change only applies to China right now.

[Noel King]

Okay, so we're talking about very cheap items, but an enormous volume of them. For every person who buys a $4 shirt from Sheehan, the government now will collect taxes on it that it didn't used to. Logistically, how does that work?

[Unknown Speaker]

So this is something that everyone is waiting to see what happens. The President had initially suspended de minimis as an exemption that was available to importers in February. And there was a lot of confusion among retailers, logistics operators, etc. And at that time, the US Postal Service temporarily stopped accepting parcels from China and Hong Kong while they tried to figure out how to handle that volume. So since then, I mean, the President a week later, delayed that until a time when the Commerce Department had notified the White House that systems were set up to process the inspections and collect the tariffs. Now, since then, the White House says the Commerce Department has told them systems are in place.

[Noel King]

President Trump has been making what you might call an anti materialist argument to the American people. In some ways, it is a messy argument. You know, be content with your kid having two dolls instead of 30. But it does speak to the fact that Americans can get a lot of stuff and have a lot of stuff and buy a lot of stuff very, very, very cheaply. How do you think about that tension? Much of what we like about being Americans is our ability to buy cheap stuff. And the President is now telling us, I don't think you guys should be able to do that anymore.

[Unknown Speaker]

I agree. It feels like in my lifetime there has been this push more and more over the years toward cheaper and cheaper goods, more and more things. And it does seem there's now this tension between that and the ways the changing trade policy could serve to stop that, that flow of goods. You know, from my perspective, covering the supply chain and logistics industry, particularly in the US Companies have, have built up their supply chains specifically to enable this flow of goods. So I don't know where they think things will land. And that's kind of what they're all grappling with right now. A lot of the companies I cover are grappling with the uncertainty and trying to figure out, well, what changes should we make, but also what changes should we wait to make until we know where the buck ultimately falls, you know, where, where will tariffs be before we make these massive changes that take years often to make?

[Noel King]

Liz Young covers supply chain and logistics for the Wall Street Journal. Truly the supply chain. Girlies, time to shine. Miles Bryan produced today's show. Jolie Myers edited. Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christin's daughter engineered. Laura Bullard is our senior researcher. And I'm Noel King. It's today.