Today, Explained: The World Trump Inherits
Vox Media Podcast Network | Released on November 8, 2024

Introduction

In the latest episode of Today, Explained, hosts Noel King and Josh Keating delve into the complex global landscape that former President Donald Trump will navigate upon assuming office again. The discussion centers on the heightened instability since Trump’s previous tenure, focusing on three major international conflicts: Ukraine, Gaza and Israel, and China. Additionally, the episode explores Trump’s distinctive foreign policy approach and its potential implications for U.S. alliances and global standing.

The State of the World Trump Inherits

Josh Keating sets the stage by highlighting the increased instability and violence that now characterize the international arena compared to 2016. He remarks, “[The world] is a much more unstable and a much more violent place” (02:23). This escalation is attributed to several factors, including the persistent threat of ISIS, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

Barack Obama underscores the severity of these changes, noting that “ISIS, described by President Obama as solely a regional threat just over a year ago, is now global, active in eight countries and counting” (02:43). The tragic Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando and North Korea’s recent underground nuclear test further exemplify the volatile environment.

Key Global Conflicts

1. Ukraine

   The Ukraine conflict remains a focal point, with Russia steadily regaining territory despite significant casualties. Josh Keating observes, “Ukraine is losing. Russia is starting slowly but surely regaining territory” (05:04). The situation deteriorated further with the involvement of North Korean troops on Russia’s side, complicating prospects for peace.

   Trump’s pledge to “immediately end the war in Ukraine” (05:54) suggests a potential shift in U.S. strategy. Keating speculates that this could involve pressuring Ukraine to concede territory, diverging from past support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.

2. Gaza and Israel

   The Gaza-Israel conflict is another critical issue. Keating notes that Trump “didn't talk that much about this conflict on the campaign trail” (06:43), opting to let existing tensions challenge the Democratic base instead. Given Trump’s previous administration’s alignment with Israeli interests, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, it is anticipated that Trump will continue to support Israel with minimal pressure for concessions.

   “[Israel] has accomplished many of its major war aims in Gaza,” Keating concludes, suggesting a potential unilateral ceasefire driven by on-the-ground developments rather than U.S. intervention (07:12).

3. China

   China’s rising influence is a paramount concern. Keating highlights the increasing military tensions, particularly around Taiwan, which recently convened military drills in response to its new president’s inauguration (08:34). The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, with confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guards illustrating ongoing disputes.

   Trump’s previous administration was marked by a transactional approach to China, focusing on trade deals and maintaining a complex relationship with Xi Jinping. Keating anticipates that Trump’s policies might remain unpredictable, potentially oscillating between aggressive trade tactics and diplomatic engagement. “Trump talks about how he had a good relationship with Xi Jinping” (10:03), indicating a willingness to negotiate while simultaneously addressing the “China virus” narrative.

Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach

Josh Keating characterizes Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional” and driven by personal relationships rather than established alliances or principled stances on issues like human rights and democracy (15:49). This approach contrasts sharply with the Biden administration’s emphasis on a rules-based international order and collective security through alliances like NATO.

Key aspects of Trump’s foreign policy include:

• Transactional Deals: Emphasizing short-term gains over long-term stability, often prioritizing economic interests and personal rapport with other leaders.

• Personal Relationships: Leveraging direct communication with leaders such as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to negotiate deals outside traditional diplomatic channels.

• Alliance Skepticism: Viewing alliances like NATO as "a scam" where members are "free riding on US security guarantees," thereby advocating for increased defense spending by allied nations (18:14).

Keating warns that Trump’s unpredictability may lead to a more volatile global environment, making it challenging for allies to rely on U.S. protection and potentially prompting adversaries to take advantage of the ambiguity.

Impact on Global Alliances and U.S. Standing

The episode discusses the potential repercussions of Trump’s foreign policy on global alliances. Keating points out that U.S. allies might respond to Trump’s stance by increasing their own defense budgets, as some European diplomats acknowledge the necessity of greater self-reliance in national security (24:02). However, there is also concern that countries might pursue nuclear capabilities independently, undermining collective security frameworks.

Josh Keating emphasizes that Trump’s approach could lead to “more of a MAGA core coming out of the D.C. foreign policy world” (21:42), signaling a shift towards prioritizing American interests even at the expense of established multilateral relationships.

Advisors and Decision Makers in Trump’s Potential Administration

The discussion explores who might influence Trump's foreign policy decisions. Keating suggests that unlike his first term, which included traditional military figures like John Bolton and James Mattis, Trump’s upcoming administration may be dominated by individuals more aligned with the MAGA ideology. Potential advisors include:

• Mike Pompeo: Former CIA Director and Secretary of State, known for maintaining a strong relationship with Trump.

• Rick Grenell: Former Ambassador to Germany, noted for his outspoken criticism of European countries and NATO, possibly taking a senior role.

• Bill Hagerty: Current Senator from Tennessee and former Ambassador to Japan, mentioned as a likely candidate.

Keating anticipates that these advisors will push for policies that reflect Trump’s transactional and unilateral foreign policy style, potentially distancing the U.S. from traditional alliances and multilateral engagements.

Common Misconceptions about Trump’s Foreign Policy

Keating addresses prevalent misconceptions, asserting that Trump cannot be neatly categorized as either a dove or a hawk. Instead, his policies are a blend of both approaches, driven by transactional motives and personal relationships rather than ideological consistency. He states, “People try to characterize him as either a dove or a hawk… I think that he's somebody who takes a very kind of transactional approach” (25:11).

This nuanced view suggests that Trump’s foreign policy is less about a fixed stance on war or peace and more about pragmatic, deal-oriented strategies that serve immediate American interests.

Conclusion and Insights

As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the profound changes in the global landscape since Trump's previous presidency. With increased conflicts and shifting power dynamics, Trump's return to office promises a foreign policy that could further destabilize international relations through its unpredictability and transactional nature. The potential sidelining of alliances and emphasis on personal deals may lead to a more fragmented and uncertain world order.

Notably, Josh Keating warns that while Trump’s approach might bring short-term gains, it could undermine long-term global stability and America's leadership role on the world stage.

Notable Quotes

• Josh Keating [02:23]: “The world is a much more unstable and a much more violent place.”

• Barack Obama [02:43]: “ISIS...is now global, active in eight countries and counting.”

• Josh Keating [05:04]: “Ukraine is losing. Russia is starting slowly but surely regaining territory.”

• Donald Trump [05:54]: “Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine.”

• Josh Keating [15:49]: “Transactional...not based on principle.”

• Bill Hagerty [23:30]: “I'm going to do everything I can to move us forward, bring our economy back, our national security back, and get America moving again.”

• Josh Keating [25:11]: “He’s somebody who takes a very kind of transactional approach to foreign policy.”

This episode was produced by Peter Ballin on Rosen, edited by Aman Al Saadi, with fact-checking by Laura Bullard, Amanda Llewellyn, and Hadi Moogdi. Mixed by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christen’s daughter. Music by Breakmaster Cylinder.