
Vox’s Joshua Keating explains how Trump’s foreign policy will influence some of the world’s biggest conflicts.
Loading summary
Noel King
The congratulations are pouring in from around the world.
Donald Trump
Congratulations, President Elect Donald Trump.
Noel King
Nah, I can't do it. Leaders are offering an olive branch to the next president of the United States.
Josh Keating
Our two nations share an unbreakable bond.
Noel King
Until, of course, you decide to break that bond for no particular reason. That wasn't a world leader, that was a comedian, Mr. Cody Dollar on TikTok. But here's Trudeau.
Josh Keating
I look forward to working with President Trump once again.
Noel King
And Sheinbaum, to all Mexicans, I say.
Josh Keating
There is no reason to worry.
Noel King
And NATO, you have a president who.
Peter Ballin
Has experienced, who is extremely clear about what he wants.
Benjamin Netanyahu
And Netanyahu calling Trump's victory history's greatest comeback.
Noel King
And BFF Putin saying, quote, he behaved.
Clay Vossier
In my opinion, in a very correct way, courageously, like a real man on TODAY explained.
Noel King
We're going to explore the world Trump inherits and what he's going to do with it.
Clay Vossier
Amgen, a leading biotechnology company, needed a global financial company to facilitate funding and acquisition to broaden Amgen's therapeutic reach, expand its pipeline and accelerate bringing new and innovative medicines to patients in need globally. They found that partner in Citi, whose seamlessly connected banking markets and services businesses can advise, finance and close deals around the world. Learn more@citi.com clientstories.
Peter Ballin
Support for this show comes from Polestar. Polestar is an electric performance car brand that is focused on innovation for both cutting edge technology and design. And their all electric SUV. Polestar 3 is for those unwilling to compromise, for those who believe they shouldn't have to choose between the spacious comfort of an SUV and the agile handling of a sports car. For those who need an intuitive infotainment system and a dashboard designed with minimalism in mind. Polestar 3 is for drivers who won't settle for anything less. Book a Test drive for Polestar 3 at@Polestar.com.
Noel King
We are the world. We are the Today explained.
Josh Keating
I'm Josh Keating. I write about foreign policy and national security for vox.
Noel King
Josh, how is the world Donald Trump is stepping into in January different than it was in 2016? Could you just remind us?
Josh Keating
Well, I think the world is a much more unstable and a much more violent place. And it's sort of funny to say that because if definitely in 2016, it didn't feel like we were living through this era of stability and security, you know, there was still the war against ISIS going on in the Middle east.
Barack Obama
Isis, described by President Obama as solely a regional threat just over a year ago, is now global, active in eight countries and counting. And it has a growing focus on carrying out attacks in the West.
Josh Keating
There were terrorist attacks on US Soil.
Clay Vossier
Still a shooting in downtown Orlando at the Pulse nightclub.
Donald Trump
49 people were killed when Omar Mateen opened fire.
Josh Keating
North Korea was testing nuclear weapons today. The DPRK said that it conducted an underground nuclear test amid threats of more sanctions from the United States and others. There were Russian troops on Ukrainian soil.
Barack Obama
Spreading out throughout the strategic Crimean Peninsula. President Obama.
Josh Keating
But you know, fast forward eight years and a lot's changed. Ukraine is now a nation at war.
Noel King
Fears are growing of a wider conflict.
Benjamin Netanyahu
In the Middle War devastating Sudan that echoes the Darfur genocide of 20 years ago.
Josh Keating
The last three years saw more conflict related deaths than at any time in the last three decades. The number of armed conflicts have increased. And I think, you know, maybe more important than that is the sort of character of those conflicts has changed. We're not just talking about wars within states, fights between states and terrorist groups. We're seeing conventional warfare on, on European soil. We're seeing in the Middle east, obviously growing tension and violence not just between Israel and Gaza, but risks of war between Israel and Iran that could draw in the United States. And then the one looming over all these that could be potentially far more destructive than any of them is the risk of conflict between the US And China, which I'd say you'd have to say has only grown in the last eight years. So the world has gotten more unstable, more dangerous. And the sort of risks of each individual decision that a US President makes have only gotten, you know, more dramatic over the last eight years.
Noel King
Let's talk about the three conflicts that are top of mind for Donald Trump, but also most of the world now stepping into a new presidency. Ukraine, Gaza and China. It's been two years now and some since Russia invaded Ukraine. Where does the war stand today?
Josh Keating
Well, the blunt fact of it is Ukraine is losing. Russia is starting slowly but surely regaining territory. They're doing it at enormous cost to their own forces. Just obscene untold levels of casualties on the Russian side. But Russia has a larger population than Ukraine and is steadily gaining. The big development we've seen in the last few weeks is North Korean troops have entered the fight on the Russian side. You know, it's not a good position for the Ukrainians right now. And you'd have to say it got worse as a result of the US Election.
Barack Obama
So Putin is now saying it's independent, a large section of Ukraine. I said, how smart is that? And he's going to go in and.
Josh Keating
Be a peacekeeper Donald Trump has pledged to immediately end the war in Ukraine.
Barack Obama
I would get him into a room, I'd get Zelensky into a room, then I'd bring. Bring them together and I'd have the deal worked out.
Josh Keating
Presumably, if you look at the statements he has made, the statements that his running mate, J.D. vance, made, this would involve sort of pressuring Ukraine to give up territory. Ukraine remains its independent sovereignty.
Donald Trump
Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine.
Josh Keating
It doesn't join NATO, it doesn't join.
Donald Trump
Some of these sort of allied institutions. And I think that's ultimately what this looks like. And by the way, the Germans basically.
Josh Keating
Acceding to many of Russia's core war aims. Clearly, this is not the result Ukraine was hoping for in the US Election, but I think that war is going to continue, at least for some time.
Noel King
Okay, let's talk about Gaza and Israel, because it's the other war that's top of mind for most people right now.
Josh Keating
Trump actually didn't talk that much about this conflict on the campaign trail. I think he was very happy to sit back and let the tensions over in Israel and Gaza divide the Democrats. That only played to his advantage. But I don't think we should expect to see Trump put any pressure on Israel that the Biden administration didn't. I think if you look at his record in the first term, where he basically acceded to everything the Israelis wanted.
Barack Obama
From directing the State Department to begin preparation, to move the American Embassy from.
Josh Keating
Tel Aviv to Jerusalem to recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, he basically gave the Israelis everything they wanted. And I, I think we should expect to see that again. I think that maybe the personal relationship between Trump and Netanyahu isn't as close as it once was. Trump has talked several times about how ticked off he was that Netanyahu quickly recognized Joe Biden's electoral victory in 2020 when some other far right leaders around the world didn't do that. I think we should expect the Israeli government to get a lot more latitude. I don't think there's going to be as much pressure on them in terms of their targeting, in terms of letting in humanitarian aid. Israel's actually accomplished many of its major war aims in Gaza, and so there's a chance we could just see sort of a unilateral ceasefire in the coming months just because of things on the ground sort of taking their own course. Rather than Trump actually putting any pressure on the Israeli government.
Noel King
Let's talk about China, one of Trump's faves.
Barack Obama
China. I love him.
Noel King
What's changed there since he was last in office.
Josh Keating
I think that what we've seen is a sort of growing recognition or at least consciousness of China's growing power and concerns about that spiraling into open conflict. I was just in Taiwan a few weeks ago where that may be the place people are looking to most closely. China is launching two days of military drill surrounding Taiwan just days after the island swore in its new president.
Benjamin Netanyahu
China views.
Josh Keating
There are US Military commanders who say they expect open military conflict in the Taiwan Strait within the next five years. We've seen sort of clashes between, you know, sort of informal Chinese forces and the Philippines. That's tension that's growing.
Clay Vossier
The Philippines and China on Saturday accused each other of intentionally ramming Coast Guard.
Josh Keating
Ships in disputed waters of the South China Sea. This is actually an area where there's been a little more continuity between the Trump and then the Biden administrations. They both clearly viewed China as the kind of main competitor to the United States on the world stage. There were differences in how they approached it with Biden. There was a lot more emphasis on sort of building alliances in the Asia Pacific region. But, you know, Trump's China policy is a little unpredictable.
Barack Obama
I love China. People say, oh, you don't like China? No, I love him.
Josh Keating
Trump talks about how he had a good relationship with Xi Jinping, how, you know, they were making good deals until, you know, what he calls the China virus came onto the scene.
Barack Obama
He's a fierce warrior. He's a fierce challenger, but I had a very good relationship with him.
Josh Keating
You know, Joe Biden would talk about this sort of like good versus evil Cold War framing.
Barack Obama
We're in competition with China and other countries to win the 21st century. We're at a great inflection point in history. We have to do more than just build back better, but build back. We have to build back better.
Josh Keating
With Trump, it's always a little more transactional. I think he wants to see what kind of deal he can get on trade. One theme that we saw again and again during the first Trump administration was that he and his advisors would often say, like ra radically different things on foreign policy. And I would expect to see a little bit of that again.
Noel King
So the world has changed quite significantly since Donald Trump was last in office. He was even running on that fact throughout his campaign. Has the way he sees the world changed at all?
Josh Keating
I don't really think so. I think he has this idea that his sort of aggressive rhetoric and unpredictable behavior actually led to stability in the world. I mean, there's this idea that goes back to the Cold War, the madman theory that actually like that if they think you're crazy, they'll be more careful. And I think he sort of runs on that. I think that maybe adversaries are a little more careful because he's more unpredictable. But I also think allies may be a little less able to count on U.S. protection and that changes their behavior too. I'd say. It doesn't make the world more peaceful necessarily. I think it makes the world more unpredictable.
Noel King
When we're back on Today explained we're going to try and understand Trump's foreign policy, because why not? It might help.
Peter Ballin
Support for the show comes from Polestar Innovation is at the heart of every Polestar car and their SUV. Polestar 3 is no different from the intuitive infotainment system to its head turning design. Polestar 3 is for drivers unwilling to compromise. That means merging a spacious, comfortable interior with the torque and handling of a sports car. Now you can go from 0 to 60 in as little as 4.8 seconds and get an EPA estimated range of up to 315 miles per charge. Polestar 3 even allows the driver to optimize the powertrain between performance and range mode, depending on your drive's needs. Experience an uncluttered dashboard showing you everything you want to know and nothing you don't. The innovation doesn't stop there because you can just have Google turn on your favorite podcast and be immersed in 3D sound by Bowers and Wilkins. Polestar has put in the time designing and refining Polestar 3 and that means the time you spend in it will be the best time of your day. Book a test drive@polestar.com.
Clay Vossier
Weight loss it needs to be fast and sustainable. Noom GLP1 starts at just $149 and ships to your door in seven days. Take it from Clay Vossier who lost 35 pounds on Noom.
Peter Ballin
It's a psychological thing too. They're definitely teaching how to live a better, healthier lifestyle. Noom is teaching me the habits so I do not have to be on weight loss meds forever.
Clay Vossier
Don't believe it. Take it from Lauren who lost 22 pounds on Noom. If I come off of the GLP1, it's not going to automatically make my weight. Yo yo back. I'm going to have good skills and know what to do to take care of myself. $149 GLP1s now that's Noom Smart Noom the smart way to lose weight get started with Noom GLP1@noom.com Real Noom users compensated to provide their story. Individual results may vary. Not all customers will medically qualify for prescription medications. Compounded medications are not reviewed by the FDA for safety, efficacy or quality.
Benjamin Netanyahu
Think about those businesses that grew their sales beyond their forecasts. Companies like Momofuku or feastables by MrBeast or even a legacy business like Mattel. When you think about them, sure, you think about a product with demand, a focused brand and influence driven marketing. But part of their secret is actually the business behind the scenes, as in the business that makes selling and buying simple. And for millions of companies, that business is Shopify. Nobody does selling better than Shopify, home of the number one checkout on the planet. With their shop pay feature, they can boost conversions up to 50%, meaning way less carts going abandoned and way more sales going. So if you're into growing your business, you want a commerce platform that's ready to sell wherever your customers are scrolling or strolling, whether that's on the web, in your store and everywhere in between. Because businesses that sell more sell on Shopify. Sign up for your $1 per month trial period at shopify.com voxbusiness all lowercase go to shopify.com voxbusiness to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com voxbusiness.
Noel King
Everybody wants to today explain is back with Josh Keating. Josh, if you had to sum up Donald Trump's approach to the world to foreign policy, how would you do it?
Josh Keating
Transactional, I think, is what it is. It's not based on principle. Like obviously it's not going to talk a lot about human rights and democracy the way that Joe Biden did.
Barack Obama
It's not about just going after Russia when they violate human rights.
Josh Keating
It's about who we are or even the way that George W. Bush did. We must continue to do more to improve the human condition in North Korea with Trump. I mean, look at how he handled North Korea in his first term.
Barack Obama
North Korea best not make any more threats to the United States. They will be met with fire and fury like the world has never seen.
Josh Keating
Then it was the beautiful friendship, the beautiful romance between him and Kim Jong Un.
Barack Obama
And then we fell in love. Okay. No, really. He wrote me beautiful letters and they're great letters. We fell in love.
Josh Keating
He's able to quickly pivot on a dime if he thinks that there are deals to be had. And I'd say that those deals can often be sort of short term gains. I mean, he's a real estate guy. He wants to cut deals. And often I would say he will put short term gain over sort of long term stability. In the piece I wrote, I looked at sort of a couple of principles that I don't think he puts faith in. One is the kind of nuclear taboo. This idea that use of nuclear weapons is, you know, absolutely unacceptable, and we should be doing everything we can to avoid it or even avoid talking about it. He's somebody who sort of openly flirted with it.
Barack Obama
The president is tweeting about how his nuclear button is much bigger and more powerful. And Kim Jong Un, we have two maniacs with nuclear warheads bragging about who.
Noel King
Has the bigger button.
Josh Keating
Another one's the, you know, sort of territorial integrity. This idea that you don't change borders by force. He doesn't seem to have much interest in that. He, you know, talked when he was president about how he thought maybe we should just, like, let Russia have Crimea.
Barack Obama
You know, the people of Crimea, for more. What I've heard would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that also.
Josh Keating
And another is the importance of alliances. I mean, this is something that's sort of a key pillar of US Foreign policy is the idea that global security benefits through alliances like NATO.
Barack Obama
One of the presidents of a big country stood up, said, well, sir, if we don't pay and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us? I said, you didn't pay, you're delinquent. He said, yes, let's say that happened. No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.
Josh Keating
The reason Russia isn't lobbing missiles at Poland or the Czech Republic or Hungary, even though those countries are helping Ukraine, is because they are members of NATO and they know that an attack on one is an attack on all. Trump sees that as a scam. He sees those countries as just, like, free riding on US Security guarantees. And his idea, and he said this explicitly with respect to Taiwan, that if they expect the US to come to their defense, they should be paying us for it.
Noel King
Okay, transactional. Proud of his big button, not proud of our alliances, and not crazy about territorial integrity. So how does that apply to the war in Ukraine, which he says, if.
Barack Obama
I'm president, I will have that war settled in one day, 24 hours.
Josh Keating
Well, what's interesting is we've already seen the Ukrainians kind of, like, adapt their pitch to the new reality. So you've actually seen President Volodymyr Zelensky in recent weeks talk a little more about the natural resources on his territory and how they have sort of big deposits of lithium and things we'll need for EVs. And you know how important it is for us to defend Ukraine because we don't want these falling into Russian hands. And so under Biden, they would talk about, you know, how we have to stand up for democracy and how, you know, how when we're defending Ukraine, we're defending the Western led international rules based order. Donald Trump doesn't care about the Western rules based international order, but, you know, he is somebody who says that when we invaded Iraq, we should have taken the oil. I think we're going to hear how it's in the US's sort of economic interest to sort of keep Ukraine in the US orbit. They're sitting on 10 to 12 trillion.
Noel King
Dollars of critical minerals in Ukraine. They could be the richest country in all of Europe.
Josh Keating
I don't want to give that money and those assets to Putin to share with China.
Noel King
If we help Ukraine now, they can become the best business partner we ever dreamed of.
Josh Keating
I think we're going to see a lot of other countries sort of pivoting the way they sort of sell themselves to Washington under this new administration.
Noel King
Who do we think is going to be in Donald Trump's ear this time around when it comes to foreign policy? He's famously not a student of the world, but will he surround himself with some savvy folks?
Josh Keating
I think that's going to be a big change between Trump 1 and Trump 2. Trump had a thing for a man in uniform the first time around.
Barack Obama
My generals, those generals are going to keep us so safe.
Josh Keating
I think he liked having sort of former generals in his cabinet because these guys with tough guy reputations like HR McMaster and James Mattis, famously one of the reasons he picked Jim Mattis was because he liked that his nickname was Mad Dog from when a general Mad Dog.
Barack Obama
He's great. He is great.
Josh Keating
And I think what he discovered was that these guys actually, you know, they may be tough, but they also have sort of rather traditional views of national security priorities. They're not the kind of guys who wanted to pull the U.S. out of NATO. And so I think this time around he's not going to rely on generals, my generals, the way he did the last time. I think you're going to see more true believers. A couple of names. I mean, Mike Pompeo, who is his CIA director and then Secretary of State, is somebody who actually does still have a good relationship with Trump, who didn't have a falling out with Him. People have talked about him coming back in. I'm especially proud that we've made religious freedom a top priority in the United States foreign policy for the first time in America's history. Robert O'Brien is maybe the only one of Trump's national security advisers who didn't turn on him. I was privileged and proud to work for the president and serve America in multiple administrations. And if I'm asked, I'll obviously do my part. But we'll have to wait and see what the president wants to do. Rick Grenell, who is his former ambassador to Germany, like a really sort of outspoken critic of European countries and of NATO. Somebody with, like, real sharp elbows, not well liked around Brussels. People have talked about him as taking a senior role. What do you think German politicians would.
Noel King
Like you to become Secretary of State? ANADOLT I don't care what they think.
Josh Keating
Where this is about America. Bill Haggerty, the current senator from Tennessee, who was Trump's ambassador to Japan, that's a name that's come a lot.
Peter Ballin
I'm not going to speculate on what the future might be. I'll leave that to the speculators, except to say that I'm going to do everything I can to move us forward, bring our economy back, our national security back, and get America moving again.
Josh Keating
It's sort of more of like a MAGA core coming out of the D.C. foreign policy world than there was eight years ago.
Noel King
And what do we think, you know, MAGA core group of true believers implementing Trump's vision, or maybe even lack thereof, for American standing in the world means for America's standing in the world, be it our alliances in NATO or just our influence overall.
Josh Keating
Well, you know, I think a lot of US Allies are going, this is a wake up call for them about their own national security. You know, I've had some European diplomats, like, off the record, say, like they kind of think Trump had a little bit of a point, that the, you know, European countries should be spending a greater percentage of their GDP on defense. So we may see more of these countries spending a little more on defense. That could be true in Europe, in East Asia as well. One thing I'm keeping an eye on that concerns me is they may decide that rather than doing that, it may be cheaper and simpler rather than sort of building a big standing army that can deter an attack from Russia, China, North Korea. Pick your adversary to just seek your own nuclear weapons. We even heard President Zelensky in Ukraine say that Ukraine's future is either in NATO or with a nuclear weapon.
Noel King
I don't have alternative except NATO.
Josh Keating
That was my signal.
Noel King
What do you think it is that we get wrong about Donald Trump's foreign policy?
Josh Keating
People try to characterize him as either a dove or a hawk, that he's either like a warmonger or like a total isolationist who will like pull back the US from the world. I don't think either of those is really true. I think that he's somebody who takes a very kind of transactional approach to foreign policy, puts a lot of faith in personal relationships, in his sort of one on one talks with guys like Xi Jinping, like Kim Jong Un, like Vladimir Putin, and doesn't have a lot of time for sort of talk about alliances or rules based international order. He looks at crises and at US Relationships and asks generously speaking, what's in it for the us? Not so generously speaking, what's in it for me? And he's willing to use both hawkish and dovish tools to get there.
Noel King
Josh Keating Vox.com if memory serves, the last time Trump was president there was a lot to explain. VOX is gearing up to help you understand the next four years. You can support our work by joining our membership program today. Go to Vox.com members to sign up and thank you. Our show today was produced by Peter Ballin on Rosen, edited by Aman Al Saadi, Fact Checked by Laura Bullard and Amanda Llewellyn and Hadi Moogdi and mixed by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christen's daughter. The rest of us Miles Bryan Abhishai, Artsy, Victoria Chamberlain, Halima Shah, Rob Byers, Zach Mack and Eliza Dennis who made a perfectly timed exit this week. We use music by Breakmaster Cylinder. Matthew Collette supervises, edits, Miranda Kennedy executive produces, Noel King hosts the most. I'm Sean Ramis firm and this is Today Explained.
Donald Trump
Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world including companies like uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make progress@ stripe.com that's stripe. To learn more Stripe Make Progress.
Today, Explained: The World Trump Inherits
Vox Media Podcast Network | Released on November 8, 2024
Introduction
In the latest episode of Today, Explained, hosts Noel King and Josh Keating delve into the complex global landscape that former President Donald Trump will navigate upon assuming office again. The discussion centers on the heightened instability since Trump’s previous tenure, focusing on three major international conflicts: Ukraine, Gaza and Israel, and China. Additionally, the episode explores Trump’s distinctive foreign policy approach and its potential implications for U.S. alliances and global standing.
The State of the World Trump Inherits
Josh Keating sets the stage by highlighting the increased instability and violence that now characterize the international arena compared to 2016. He remarks, “[The world] is a much more unstable and a much more violent place” (02:23). This escalation is attributed to several factors, including the persistent threat of ISIS, North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Barack Obama underscores the severity of these changes, noting that “ISIS, described by President Obama as solely a regional threat just over a year ago, is now global, active in eight countries and counting” (02:43). The tragic Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando and North Korea’s recent underground nuclear test further exemplify the volatile environment.
Key Global Conflicts
Ukraine
The Ukraine conflict remains a focal point, with Russia steadily regaining territory despite significant casualties. Josh Keating observes, “Ukraine is losing. Russia is starting slowly but surely regaining territory” (05:04). The situation deteriorated further with the involvement of North Korean troops on Russia’s side, complicating prospects for peace.
Trump’s pledge to “immediately end the war in Ukraine” (05:54) suggests a potential shift in U.S. strategy. Keating speculates that this could involve pressuring Ukraine to concede territory, diverging from past support for Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Gaza and Israel
The Gaza-Israel conflict is another critical issue. Keating notes that Trump “didn't talk that much about this conflict on the campaign trail” (06:43), opting to let existing tensions challenge the Democratic base instead. Given Trump’s previous administration’s alignment with Israeli interests, including moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, it is anticipated that Trump will continue to support Israel with minimal pressure for concessions.
“[Israel] has accomplished many of its major war aims in Gaza,” Keating concludes, suggesting a potential unilateral ceasefire driven by on-the-ground developments rather than U.S. intervention (07:12).
China
China’s rising influence is a paramount concern. Keating highlights the increasing military tensions, particularly around Taiwan, which recently convened military drills in response to its new president’s inauguration (08:34). The South China Sea remains a flashpoint, with confrontations between Chinese and Philippine coast guards illustrating ongoing disputes.
Trump’s previous administration was marked by a transactional approach to China, focusing on trade deals and maintaining a complex relationship with Xi Jinping. Keating anticipates that Trump’s policies might remain unpredictable, potentially oscillating between aggressive trade tactics and diplomatic engagement. “Trump talks about how he had a good relationship with Xi Jinping” (10:03), indicating a willingness to negotiate while simultaneously addressing the “China virus” narrative.
Trump’s Foreign Policy Approach
Josh Keating characterizes Trump’s foreign policy as “transactional” and driven by personal relationships rather than established alliances or principled stances on issues like human rights and democracy (15:49). This approach contrasts sharply with the Biden administration’s emphasis on a rules-based international order and collective security through alliances like NATO.
Key aspects of Trump’s foreign policy include:
Transactional Deals: Emphasizing short-term gains over long-term stability, often prioritizing economic interests and personal rapport with other leaders.
Personal Relationships: Leveraging direct communication with leaders such as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin to negotiate deals outside traditional diplomatic channels.
Alliance Skepticism: Viewing alliances like NATO as "a scam" where members are "free riding on US security guarantees," thereby advocating for increased defense spending by allied nations (18:14).
Keating warns that Trump’s unpredictability may lead to a more volatile global environment, making it challenging for allies to rely on U.S. protection and potentially prompting adversaries to take advantage of the ambiguity.
Impact on Global Alliances and U.S. Standing
The episode discusses the potential repercussions of Trump’s foreign policy on global alliances. Keating points out that U.S. allies might respond to Trump’s stance by increasing their own defense budgets, as some European diplomats acknowledge the necessity of greater self-reliance in national security (24:02). However, there is also concern that countries might pursue nuclear capabilities independently, undermining collective security frameworks.
Josh Keating emphasizes that Trump’s approach could lead to “more of a MAGA core coming out of the D.C. foreign policy world” (21:42), signaling a shift towards prioritizing American interests even at the expense of established multilateral relationships.
Advisors and Decision Makers in Trump’s Potential Administration
The discussion explores who might influence Trump's foreign policy decisions. Keating suggests that unlike his first term, which included traditional military figures like John Bolton and James Mattis, Trump’s upcoming administration may be dominated by individuals more aligned with the MAGA ideology. Potential advisors include:
Mike Pompeo: Former CIA Director and Secretary of State, known for maintaining a strong relationship with Trump.
Rick Grenell: Former Ambassador to Germany, noted for his outspoken criticism of European countries and NATO, possibly taking a senior role.
Bill Hagerty: Current Senator from Tennessee and former Ambassador to Japan, mentioned as a likely candidate.
Keating anticipates that these advisors will push for policies that reflect Trump’s transactional and unilateral foreign policy style, potentially distancing the U.S. from traditional alliances and multilateral engagements.
Common Misconceptions about Trump’s Foreign Policy
Keating addresses prevalent misconceptions, asserting that Trump cannot be neatly categorized as either a dove or a hawk. Instead, his policies are a blend of both approaches, driven by transactional motives and personal relationships rather than ideological consistency. He states, “People try to characterize him as either a dove or a hawk… I think that he's somebody who takes a very kind of transactional approach” (25:11).
This nuanced view suggests that Trump’s foreign policy is less about a fixed stance on war or peace and more about pragmatic, deal-oriented strategies that serve immediate American interests.
Conclusion and Insights
As the episode wraps up, the hosts reflect on the profound changes in the global landscape since Trump's previous presidency. With increased conflicts and shifting power dynamics, Trump's return to office promises a foreign policy that could further destabilize international relations through its unpredictability and transactional nature. The potential sidelining of alliances and emphasis on personal deals may lead to a more fragmented and uncertain world order.
Notably, Josh Keating warns that while Trump’s approach might bring short-term gains, it could undermine long-term global stability and America's leadership role on the world stage.
Notable Quotes
Josh Keating [02:23]: “The world is a much more unstable and a much more violent place.”
Barack Obama [02:43]: “ISIS...is now global, active in eight countries and counting.”
Josh Keating [05:04]: “Ukraine is losing. Russia is starting slowly but surely regaining territory.”
Donald Trump [05:54]: “Russia gets the guarantee of neutrality from Ukraine.”
Josh Keating [15:49]: “Transactional...not based on principle.”
Bill Hagerty [23:30]: “I'm going to do everything I can to move us forward, bring our economy back, our national security back, and get America moving again.”
Josh Keating [25:11]: “He’s somebody who takes a very kind of transactional approach to foreign policy.”
This episode was produced by Peter Ballin on Rosen, edited by Aman Al Saadi, with fact-checking by Laura Bullard, Amanda Llewellyn, and Hadi Moogdi. Mixed by Patrick Boyd and Andrea Christen’s daughter. Music by Breakmaster Cylinder.