Today, Explained: "Trump and Modi’s Broken Bromance"

Episode Date: September 4, 2025
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram, Noel King
Guests: Sadanan Dhume (American Enterprise Institute), Josh Keating (Vox)

Episode Overview

This episode explores the deteriorating relationship—or "bromance"—between former President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Amid rising tariffs, diplomatic snubs, and shifting global alliances, Vox’s hosts and guests analyze what the unraveling of US-India ties under Trump’s renewed leadership could mean for global power dynamics, and how Modi is responding by turning to China and Russia. The episode also delves into the implications of recent summits involving Xi Jinping, Vladimir Putin, and Modi, probing the prospects of a new anti-American bloc.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Strategic Importance of US-India Relations

• Why it Matters:

  • India is the world’s most populous nation, with the fifth largest economy (projected to be third by 2028) and the second largest military.
  • Its democratic credentials and long border with China make it a critical US partner in the Indo-Pacific.
    (Sidanan Dhume, 02:26)

  "Maintaining a good relationship with India has been a central part of American strategy in the Indo Pacific for at least 25 years." (02:26)

• Success—and Setback:

  • US efforts to keep India aligned with US interests have historically worked—until recent weeks presented unexpected challenges.

  "...the US strategy has been quite successful. But now, of course, it's all up in the air." (03:03)

2. The Rise and Fall of the Trump-Modi "Bromance"

• Commonalities Between Leaders:

  • Both are populists drawn to mass rallies, are skeptical of elite institutions, and appeal directly to their bases.

  "Both are populists, both were disliked by and dislike their traditional elites and their traditional mainstream media." (03:36)

• Memorable Rallies:

  • "Howdy Modi" Rally: Huge event in Houston where Trump and Modi held hands—the symbolic peak of their relationship.
  • "Namaste Trump" Rally: Modi returned the favor, inviting Trump to a stadium of 100,000 in India.

  "India has a true friend in White House." (Sidanan Dhume, channeling Modi, 04:55)
  "He and Trump held this rally together in Texas called the Howdy Modi Rally." (04:40)

• Unusual Foreign Endorsement:

  • Modi nearly endorsed Trump in 2020, which is rare for an Indian PM. Biden's team overlooked this for diplomatic continuity after Trump lost.

3. The Breakup: Trade Wars, Military Standoffs, Diplomatic Faux Pas

• Trade Deal Hopes Dashed:

  • India sought a major new trade accord and expected a Trump victory would smooth the way.

  "...there was an announcement that the US and India were working towards a trade deal...But that obviously has not happened." (06:49-07:09)

• Ceasefire Controversy:

  • During a brief Indo-Pakistani conflict, Trump announced a ceasefire (unilaterally taking credit), undermining Modi’s leadership at home.

  "...Trump suddenly put out a truth on truth social, announcing a ceasefire and taking credit for it. That was an embarrassment for Modi." (07:42)

• Sanctions and Tariffs:

  • Trump, angered by lack of credit for brokering peace, imposed steep tariffs—including extra penalties for India’s Russian oil imports.

  "...he's also slapped on an additional 25% [tariff], which he refers to as sanctions..." (08:38)

• Resulting Tensions:

  • Both sides feel slighted, escalating to what’s described as a “trade war.”

  "Is India in a trade war with the United States right now? ...That is at least partly and in my view, a large part of the explanation. Yes." (09:20-09:36)

4. India Looks to China—and Russia

• Strategic Recalibration:

  • Facing aggressive US tariffs, India is mending fences with historic rivals China and Russia.
  • Modi’s recent attendance at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Beijing (his first China visit since 2020), and public imagery with Xi and Putin, signal a changing diplomatic posture.

  "...Modi went around tweeting his photos with Putin and Xi and just, I mean, India played it up far more." (11:38)

  • The Trump-led tariff war has made improving Sino-Indian ties “a much more urgent priority.” (12:53)

5. The Beijing Summit: Anti-American Optics or Strategic Hedging?

• Summit Summary:

  • Leaders from China, Russia, India, and others gather in Beijing, where Xi Jinping’s speech contains pointed critiques of American hegemony.

  "...a lot of not so veiled references to overturning the American led order." (Josh Keating, 16:22)

• Photo Ops vs. Deep Diplomacy:

  • Beyond imagery, there was a substantive pitch to developing nations—China positioning itself as a more stable, less domineering partner than the US.

  "China, this rising power, is giving a message of stability...not every four years this country's policy is going to radically change." (Josh Keating, 18:17)

• India's Calculus:

  • While wary of China, India recalibrates to avoid being feuding with multiple superpowers.

  "It’s not really a surprise to see India...looking to improve its relationship with China. So at least it's not in a feud with two different superpowers at the same time, one of which is right on its borders." (Josh Keating, 20:13)

• Russia’s Role:

  • The Ukraine war and Western sanctions have driven Russia closer to both China and India, forming an “axis of convenience” among US-sanctioned states.

  "I think that you have seen these four countries be kind of driven closer together...an alliance of convenience that's sort of driven by the fact that all four are like under heavy US Sanctions." (Josh Keating, 21:14-22:27)

6. The US Response and the Future of Alliances

• Trump’s Approach:

  • Trump is skeptical of traditional alliances like NATO and the G7, preferring bilateral deals and viewing global powers as entities to be managed individually rather than through Cold War-style coalitions.

  "From whatever else you can say about Donald Trump, I don't think like a Cold War mentality really describes the way he sees the world." (Josh Keating, 22:52)

• Global Perceptions:

  • US unpredictability is pushing Eastern powers closer together, with China and Russia announcing major new energy deals.
  • The “axis of authoritarians” is less about shared ideology, more about shared adversity vis-à-vis the US.

7. Memorable Moments & Notable Quotes

• On Aging, Power, and Longevity:

  "These are guys who like to think beyond four year election cycles. They're planning the next 70 years of their rule." (Josh Keating, 25:20)

  • Referencing a hot-mic moment where Xi and Putin joke with Kim Jong-un about living to 150 thanks to modern technology.

• On Modi's U-Turn:

  "India was in any case trying to mend its relationship with China. But what Trump has done is really made that a much more urgent priority..." (Sidanan Dhume, 12:53)

• On US Tariffs as Relationship-Spoiler:

  "So that's really how the bromance has melted down." (Sidanan Dhume, 09:12)

• On the Unlikely “Axis”:

  "There is an alliance of convenience that's sort of driven by the fact that all four are like under heavy US Sanctions." (Josh Keating, 22:27)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Segment Highlight | |------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | 02:26 | Why US-India relations matter (Dhume) | | 04:40-05:32| The rise of Trump-Modi bromance/howdy Modi/handholding moments | | 06:49-09:12| Trade deal unraveling, Indo-Pakistan ceasefire debacle | | 10:07-12:53| India recalibrates against China, summit politics | | 15:54-19:38| Beijing summit—anti-American themes, China’s pitch to the world| | 20:13-22:27| India’s strategic hedging and the "axis of convenience" | | 22:52-25:20| Trump’s anti-alliance stance, China-Russia pipeline deal, longevity joke | | 25:36 | Trump’s "congratulatory" message to China/Russia (funny moment)|

Tone and Takeaways

The episode maintains a lightly irreverent but incisive tone, blending sharp analysis with sly humor about the spectacle of global power politics (“We laugh because if we did laugh, we would cry.” 26:03). The hosts and guests underscore that US-India ties—so recently in “bromance” mode—are now entangled in personalistic, transactional, and sometimes petty geopolitics. Meanwhile, India’s move toward Beijing and Moscow is as much strategic hedging as it is symbolism, while Trump’s unconventional foreign policy continues to upend longstanding alliances and encourage new alignments.

Final Thoughts

• Big Picture:
  As the US-India partnership stutters, global power balances are in flux, with longstanding US friends hedging their bets and historic rivals signaling new alignments.
• Underlying Message:
  The durability of international partnerships may now hinge as much on personality and perception as on deep-seated national interests.