
The affordability crisis is not entirely the president's fault. But he promised lower prices, and now it is his problem.
Loading summary
Noel King
There are some real signs that President Trump and his economic advisers are starting to freak out over our freak out over the cost of living. First, there was the unprompted lie told during a cabinet meeting in late August.
Donald Trump
Groceries are down. Energy is way down. Energy is way down. Eggs are way down. Thank you very much. When we came in, the eggs were through the roof. They were four times. That was caused by biting or whoever was operating the auto pan, actually.
Noel King
Then came the dodge.
Donald Trump
The reason I don't want to talk about aff, because everybody knows that it's far less expensive under Trump than it was under sleepy Joe Biden.
Noel King
Then he started talking about cutting you a check.
Donald Trump
We're gonna issue a dividend to.
Noel King
And then on Friday, Trump removed or lowered tariffs on more than 200 foods, including beef, coffee, tomatoes, and bananas. Ahead on Today Explained. President Trump got elected in part because he promised to lower prices. What happens if he can't?
Home Depot Advertiser
Black Friday savings are here at the Home Depot, which means it's time to add new cordless power to your collection. Right now, when you buy a select battery kit from one of our top brands like Ryobi or Milwaukee, you'll get a select tool from that same brand for free. Click into one of our best deals of the season and stock up on tools for all your upcoming projects. Get Black Friday savings happening now at the Home Depot. Limit one per transaction. Exclusions apply. Full eligible tool list in store and online.
Victoria Guida
So good, so good, so good.
Noel King
New markdowns are on at your Nordstrom Rack store. Save even more. Up to 70% on dresses, tops, boots and handbags. To give and get.
Victoria Guida
Cause I always find something amazing. Just so many good brands.
Noel King
I get an extra 5% off with my Nordstrom credit card. Total queen treatment. Join the Nordy Club at Nordstrom Rack to unlock our best deals. Big gifts, big perks. That's why you wreck.
Victoria Guida
This is TODAY Explained.
Noel King
I'm Noel King. Victoria Guida is here. She's an economics correspondent for Politico. So owing to inflation, prices were a big talking point during last year's presidential campaign. Trump and Kamala Harris both made a lot of promises.
Victoria Guida
Both of them were talking about ways to bring down prices. And President Trump actually said that he would bring down the price of everything.
Donald Trump
So when I win, I will immediately bring prices down. Starting on day one. I will end the devastating inflation crisis, immediately bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy.
Victoria Guida
And Kamala Harris, his opponent, was talking about building a opportunity economy.
Noel King
An opportunity economy where everyone has the chance to compete And a chance to.
Victoria Guida
Succeed where she was bas, trying to chart a path out of this very high cost of living.
Noel King
Ultimately, it seems like voters decided they believed Donald Trump more. Why do you think that is? Why do people think he's going to be the one to bring prices down?
Victoria Guida
So, under his first term, inflation was pretty low. And so I think people remembered that the economy was actually quite good. And the Biden years were very turbulent. And, you know, not all of that was his fault. A lot of that was coming out of the pandemic, and people felt sort of whiplash. And so they were sort of looking to that pre pandemic period. And then, you know, President Trump is also affiliated with. With business, right? He's a business guy, he's a real estate guy. And so they wanted somebody who, you know, seemed like he knew what he was doing.
Noel King
In January, President Trump takes office. And I think the assumption among a lot of people was he's going to get started right away what actually did happen beginning in January.
Victoria Guida
So, on the economic side, the big thing that he did pretty early was the tariffs.
Donald Trump
Starting tomorrow, the United States will imp reciprocal tariffs on other nations. It's been a long time since we even thought of that, which is interesting.
Victoria Guida
Because he actually did run on tariffs. Right. And it was sort of alongside this idea that he was going to bring down prices, even though those things are not totally consistent.
Noel King
Right.
Victoria Guida
Like, the point of tariffs is, you know, maybe you're more willing to deal with higher prices because you want to bring back jobs. And so he put a bunch of terrorists in place, and that has pushed up the prices of some things.
Noel King
I think in the American economy, there are, like, a couple of big line items in everybody's budget. And maybe the first one we could talk about is energy and gas. People's electricity bills, people's gas bills. What has happened with prices there in the second Trump term?
Victoria Guida
So there's a couple of different stories. So electricity costs have gone up a lot. It is getting increasingly expensive. Just keep the lights on. The state of Maine, you're looking at a 26% increase in residential electricity prices.
Katherine Rampel
Millions of New Jersey households could see a rate hike ranging anywhere from roughly 17 to 20%.
Victoria Guida
Economists are saying electricity prices are climbing.
Noel King
More than twice as fast as inflation.
Victoria Guida
Is, and that varies a little bit depending on where you are in the country. There's a whole bunch of different things that contributes to that, like the fact that the electrical grid is aging and it's expensive to upkeep and things like that. But also, I Mean, one thing that you do hear people point to that's a policy thing, is that President Trump has also been very opposed to green energy.
Donald Trump
We will drill, baby, drill. We will not allow a windmill to be built in the United States. They're killing us. And we don't want the solar panels I'm speaking with the secretary about because they take up thousands of acres of our farmland.
Victoria Guida
Whereas, you know, what you hear from a lot of businesses is, you know, we want a kind of all of the above approach, right? Like President Trump wants to be more pro fossil fuel than Biden was, which, you know, businesses love. But it's also kind of like, but we kind of need energy wherever we can get it. In terms of gas prices, it's roughly where it was a year ago, but I will say gas prices over the course of this year have actually been a bit lower than they were last year.
Noel King
The next big line item for a lot of people is going to be groceries. And here President Trump has been very interesting because he has talked about groceries. It's not like he's ignoring them.
Donald Trump
Groceries. It's a very simple word. Groceries. It's such an old fashioned term, but a beautiful term. Groceries. It. So it says a bag with different things in it. The word grocery, you know, it's sort of simple word, but it sort of means like everything you eat.
Noel King
What has happened with the price of groceries since January?
Victoria Guida
So the price of groceries have gone up.
Noel King
Prices for roasted coffee rising almost 21% in the past year round.
Donald Trump
Beef is up 11 and a half percent.
Noel King
Eggs still higher than a year ago.
Victoria Guida
Apples, bananas, just about everything you can.
Noel King
Think of is rising here.
Victoria Guida
We've continued to see prices go up. And again, with the tariffs, that's the type of thing where we're actually seeing President Trump over the last, just in, just in recent days, starting to soften on these tariffs that are on food products, which is you know, maybe an implicit acknowledgement that these are pushing up the prices. I mean, I think it is sort of like a gentle acknowledgement that lowering tariffs on things like coffee and bananas will make those things cheaper for consumers.
Noel King
And then the last big one would be housing. Is rent cheaper? Are mortgages, are people paying less on their mortgages since January?
Victoria Guida
Rent is still rising, to answer your question, but I will say that it is actually rising a lot more slowly than it had been. And part of the reason is because you've seen actually at the state and local level, a lot of moves to build more housing. And that's been helping in terms of mortgages? Absolutely not. I mean, interest rates are high and the Federal Reserve has actually cut interest rates a bit. The problem is that when you have mortgage rates come down a little bit, what happens is more people want to buy houses, which, when you don't have enough housing, just pushes up the cost of houses. So housing overall is still, still very expensive.
Noel King
Okay, so your average American is not unaware that prices mostly are going up and not coming down. Your average American voted for Donald Trump. How has Trump reacted to the criticism that he hasn't managed to do what he said he was going to do?
Victoria Guida
So initially his message was, you know, the economy is great, the economy is doing great.
Donald Trump
The stock market's higher now than when I came to office.
Victoria Guida
We have no inflation.
Donald Trump
The biggest thing is inflation and it's way down.
Victoria Guida
Everything's going really well.
Donald Trump
We have the greatest economy right now. A lot of people don't see that.
Victoria Guida
Tariffs, tariffs are not pushing up prices, although he was a little bit squishy on that one.
Donald Trump
Tariffs don't cause inflation, they cause success, cause big success. So we're going to have great success. There could be some temporary short term disruption and people will understand that.
Victoria Guida
But he was really upbeat on how the economy was doing. And then we just had an election earlier this month. It was an off year election, but the results were really striking, where the Democrats did really well in Virginia, New Jersey. In New York City, we saw Zahranam Doni win the mayoral race on affordability issues. And so it seems like since then he's sort of softened his tone. I mean, he's still making the argument that, you know, basically they've addressed inflation, but he's also been putting out a lot of ideas of ways that, you know, that they can bring down the cost of living. On Friday, President Trump signed an executive order. This order exempts hundreds of products from the President's so called reciprocal tariffs, a move aimed at lowering grocery prices.
Donald Trump
We're going to have some little price reductions and in some cases some pretty.
Victoria Guida
Good ones, and also softening a little bit, as I mentioned earlier, on sort of tariffs on things like food.
Noel King
What are some of the ideas to bring down the cost of living? What are we hearing specifically from the White House?
Victoria Guida
So one of the ideas that he put out there was the idea of a 50 year mortgage.
Noel King
Mm.
Victoria Guida
That is something that it's unclear whether that's actually something they're going to move forward with. There seems to be skepticism even within the White House about this idea.
Noel King
Is that because it's just such a Patently bad idea.
Victoria Guida
Well, I don't know that it's like particularly bad. It just wouldn't really help anything. You know, the idea of a 50 year mortgage is you have lower monthly payments, but you probably will pay a higher interest rate. And the real problem is the way that mortgages are structured, even like a 30 year mortgage. Right. Is you pay much higher interest in the early years than you do principal. So you're not actually getting equity, getting an owner, like a bigger, bigger ownership stake until you get well into the mortgage. And so if you have a 50 year mortgage, that's going to push that out even more. And so it's kind of like, you know, you might be getting like a little bit of ownership year after year, but at a certain point, it becomes like a little bit indistinguishable from just paying rent.
Noel King
Hmm. The president in his first term, he had a lot of success with the American people during the pandemic, cutting checks.
Victoria Guida
So he's talked recently about this idea of a tariff dividend is what he's calling it, which I believe where that stands is something like $2,000 checks for people making under $100,000.
Donald Trump
We're going to issue a dividend to our middle income people and lower income people of about $2,000. No, no, not for this year. It'll be next year.
Victoria Guida
So not a great time for that, given that inflation is still higher than where we want it to be. And you might remember that actually one of the things that people blame for the fact that we had such high inflation under Biden was the fact that they continued to send out these checks even after the economy was strengthening, and that probably allowed inflation to go a bit higher than it would have.
Noel King
Hmm. How are people responding to the fact that, you know, these big promises haven't.
Victoria Guida
Been met on the economy specifically, his numbers have plummeted. On ratings for handling the economy, handling.
Donald Trump
Inflation, the president's ratings have been ticking.
Victoria Guida
Down for the course of his term.
Donald Trump
And continue to do so.
Victoria Guida
More than six in ten disapprove of how he's handled tariffs, the economy and the federal government. Trump is at his lowest approval rating yet, which is 39% of Americans approving of his job as president. And so you really have seen people have increased skepticism. Now, who knows what that will actually mean?
Noel King
Right.
Victoria Guida
President Trump is somebody who seems to, you know, engender loyalty in all sorts of circumstances. But it does seem like people are really noticing. And again, that's why the election earlier this month, I think, sort of spooked them a little bit because it might be a sign of what's to come for the Republicans in the midterm elections next year.
Noel King
Victoria Guida covers economics for Politico. Coming up, can any politician really bring prices down? Support for Today Explained comes from Vanta Customer trust can make or break your business, according to Vanta. And the more your business grows, says Vanta, the more complex your security is and compliance tools can get left unchecked. Chaos. That's where Vanta comes in, says Vanta. Think of Vanta as your always on AI powered security expert who scales with you. Vanta says Vanta automates compliance, continuously monitors controls, gives you a single source of truth for compliance and risk. Whether you're a fast growing startup like Cursor or an enterprise like Snowflake, Vanna fits easily into your existing workflow workflows so you can keep growing your company. Get started at Vanta.com explained that's V-A-N-T A.com explained Vanta.com explained. Support for Today Explained comes from Deleteme. Deleteme says they make it easy, quick and safe to remove your personal data online at a time when surveillance and data breaches are common enough to make everyone, including you, vulnerable. How does it work? You can sign up and provide Delete Me with exactly the information you want and deleted. Their experts take it from there. It's not just a one time thing. Deleteme can constantly monitor and remove personal information you don't want on the Internet. Here's Claire White Delete Me has put.
Victoria Guida
Me at ease over the last year. I get less spam calls, less spam emails. I feel a lot more safe being on the Internet because I know that a lot of my information has been scrubbed and it's been scrubbed for a year now.
Noel King
See why Wirecutter named Deleteme their top pick for data removal services. You can take control of your data and keep your private life private by signing up for Deleteme now at a special discount for our listing listeners. Get 20 off your Delete Me plan when you go to JoinDeleteMe.com today. Use the promo code today at checkout. The way to get 20 off is to go to joinselite me.com today. Enter code today at checkout. What's that? That's joinedeleteme.com today code today. Support for Today Explained comes from Ethos. What's this about? It's about life insurance. Term life insurance can give you peace of mind that should the unthinkable happen. Your family will be able to continue on without frankly, Ethos says it's an online platform that makes getting term life insurance easy. There is no complicated process 100% online, says Ethos. No medical exam required. You just answer a few health questions and I'm told you get a quote in as little as 10 minutes without ever leaving your house. You can get up to $3 million in coverage and some of these policies are as low as $2 a day billed monthly. As of March 2025, Business Insider had named Ethos the number one no medical ex life insurance provider. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get a free quote@ethos.com explained. That's E H O S.com explained. Application times may vary. Rates may also vary.
Victoria Guida
What do you think today Explained us I don't know.
Katherine Rampel
Katherine Rampel I'm the economics editor at the Bulwark and I'm also an anchor at ms, now formerly known as msnbc.
Noel King
Katherine I am a very cheap American. I pay very careful attention to prices and I don't remember prices ever coming down in any significant way in my entire adult life other than during the great financial crisis where I remember you could like get a house for real cheap. It was, it feels like that is saying something that maybe prices don't just come down.
Katherine Rampel
Yeah, that's pretty much accurate. To be fair, prices of individual things can fluctuate. You mentioned housing when there is a big housing bust. For example, if an oil refinery goes offline, oil prices, gasoline prices might shoot up and then once that refinery comes back online, the prices might go down. Same thing. Or other supply shocks like bird flu. Bird flu happens, all the chickens die. Chicken prices go up, egg prices go up. Once those flocks are replenished, then you start to see prices come back down again. So it's not as if there's no such thing as like fluctuation for individual products, particularly really volatile things that are vulnerable to supply shocks like energy and food. But the overall price level. So like in aggregate, all of the things across an economy that basically never comes down, you are spending more today than you did a year ago, than you did 10 years ago, than you did 20 years ago.
Noel King
And yet when politicians are out on the campaign trail, the thing that they will say again and again, kind of no matter what level of office they're running from, is I am going to make life more affordable.
Donald Trump
So when I win, I will immediately bring prices down starting on day one.
Noel King
And when I am president, I will bring down the cost of groceries. What exactly is the disconnect. Why do we believe a politician who says, I'm going to make life more affordable when we also sort of know a year from now things will probably be a little more expensive?
Katherine Rampel
I think it's partly that it's just not intuitive. People remember life being cheaper, particularly pre pandemic life. They remember it being cheaper. And so it seems like a reasonable thing to ask of your public officials, whether elected officials or those at the Federal Reserve say that why can't things go back to the way that they were? And if you explain to them, well, actually the Federal Reserve is targeting an overall price increase of 2% and not a negative. Like, none of this is, like, obvious to anyone, and that's. That's reasonable. And most of the time, Americans don't really care because price growth is so slow that, that they have time to adjust. Right. If we have a 2% average price increase year over year, which we had for many, many years, you know, it doesn't feel that painful, particularly since your wages are probably going up by that much or more. So life feels about as affordable as it did a year before or two years before or five years before. What's different recently is that we did have this very sudden surge in inflation in the several years following the pandemic. And so the lower prices that people had recently experienced were still very fresh in people's memories.
Noel King
You remember President Biden telling us that the economy was great.
Donald Trump
We have the strongest economy in the world. Let me say it again.
Noel King
In the world, that was not true for a lot of people, for millions of people. President Trump says prices in my administration are going down. That is also not true. Is the president telling us, don't believe your eyes? Is that part of what is contributing to Americans being so ticked off about prices?
Katherine Rampel
I assume so. You know, you can lie to the American public about a lot of things, but they see what's happening in their bank account. They see what's happening when they get rung up at the grocery store. So I think it is harder to pull the wool over people's eyes when they are actually paying their own bills. Now, to be fair, when Biden was saying the economy was good, there were a lot of good things happening in the economy. The job market was really hot. So, you know, the economy contains multitudes, if you will, but people didn't really care about the fact that there were plentiful jobs to be had because they had a job and their life was still getting less affordable. And the other thing that I wanna flag here, is that even as wages were going up and prices were going up, I think psychologically, people experience those things differently. When you get a raise, you think it's because you earned that raise, right? You did something really meritorious at work. Your pay went up because your boss recognized it. Or maybe you even changed jobs. And your pay went up when you changed jobs, and that was due to your own gumption and hard work. Whereas inflation is something that happened to you that robbed you of the full value of that pay raise. And that's partly true, but it's also partly not true in the sense that part of the reason why wages were rising is that employees were demanding higher pay to compensate for higher inflation.
Noel King
I'm sure that both President Trump and President Biden would have liked to bring prices down. Right? It would have been enormously successful. The question is, can any American president really just overall make life cheaper for us?
Katherine Rampel
There is no dial under the Resolute desk.
Noel King
Dang.
Katherine Rampel
That allows them to turn prices down. Although I'm not sure that they would have really wanted to. Because look, when you have prices go down, it has lots of negative consequences too. Or oftentimes when you do see some very salient price go down, it might be because something else bad is happening in the economy. So just as an example of this, Donald Trump lately has been promising that he's going to get gasoline prices down to $2 a gallon again, which would be quite a big decline from where they are today. Do you know the last time gas was $2 a gallon?
Noel King
No.
Katherine Rampel
When it was in spring of 2020.
Noel King
Oh God.
Katherine Rampel
Okay, what else was going on? Don't wann again, exactly what was going on in spring of 2020? Well, there was a global pandemic. People stopped driving to work, factories shut down. Businesses of all kinds needed less energy, there was a lot less demand for fuel. And because there was less demand for fuel, that meant fuel was cheaper, gasoline was cheaper. So if the overall price level is going down, not just one really salient good like gasoline, that often means an economy is very sick. It basically means that everything is on a fire sale. Consumers have stopped spending and everyone, every business out there is trying to cut their prices to lure consumers back in. And if you are a consumer and you see prices already falling, you don't want to be the chump who is like, I'm going to buy something now only to see it get cheaper tomorrow. So what happens is this becomes a self perpetuating cycle. People see prices falling, they hold off on spending, Consumer spending grinds to a halt and prices get lower and lower and lower. This is sometimes called a deflationary spiral. We saw a version of this during the Great Depression. We've seen versions of this in Japan, for example, in the 90s, in Greece, during the Greek debt crisis and thereafter. So this is really not a good pattern. You want the economy to get into where prices are falling or even when they're like, like just imperceptibly hovering around 0% growth. So that's why the Federal Reserve is targeting a 2% pace of inflation rather than 0% or, heaven forbid, negative cause. Again, if you get into that negative price growth, if prices are actively falling across the board, you can really end up in a dark place economically.
Noel King
I was reading an article in the New York Times over the weekend, and there was this couple interviewed. They bought a house, their interest rate was high, and they were saying, we've had to give up vacations and outings and budget more carefully. And I thought, is that not just life? Is it not just we constantly wish we had more money and we don't. And should we maybe be changing our mindset a little bit when it comes to the question of prices and affordability?
Katherine Rampel
You know, different people make different choices about what to do with a fixed amount of money, and it's very easy to judge other people's choices. But, yeah, we all live within some constraints. That doesn't mean it's not reasonable to say it feels like everybody else is getting ahead and everybody else can afford a home and a vacation and I can't. And that's really frustrating. But it's also up to policymakers to ensure that people, you know, aside from like, you know, side eyeing their neighbors and feeling poor and whatnot, that they do feel like they can get the things that we think are the basic needs of humanity. Health care, food, you know, the ability to put clothes on their kids. So, you know, I think there are different ways to look at this.
Noel King
Katherine Rampel of the Bulwark and Ms. Now Hadi Mwagdi produced today's show. Jolie Myers edited, Patrick Boyd and Adrian Lilly engineered. Ariana Esputu and Melissa Hirsch. Check the facts Vox.com members if you want to take advantage of our membership sale, I'm Noel King. It's Today explained.
Donald Trump
Sam.
Date: November 17, 2025
Host: Noel King (Vox)
Guests: Victoria Guida (Economics Correspondent, Politico), Katherine Rampel (Economics Editor, The Bulwark; Anchor, MS Now)
This episode of Today, Explained investigates why the persistent rise in the cost of living remains such an inflammatory issue for Americans—even as President Trump, elected on promises to cut prices, is unable to deliver any significant relief. Hosts and guests break down what has actually happened to prices under Trump’s administration, public frustration, and the economic realities behind leaders’ campaign-trail claims about affordability.
This episode offers a frank, well-contextualized explanation for why campaign-trail economic rhetoric continually diverges from post-election realities, and why, for most Americans, prices only ever seem to go up.