Today, Explained: "Trump Country" Episode Summary

Episode Title: Trump Country
Release Date: November 6, 2024
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Noelle King
Guest Contributors: Andrew Prokop (Senior Political Correspondent, Vox) and Shelby Talcott (Reporter, Semaphore)

Introduction

In the "Trump Country" episode of Today, Explained, Vox hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noelle King delve into the recent presidential election where Donald J. Trump secured another term in office. The discussion navigates through the factors contributing to Trump's victory, the shortcomings of the Democratic campaign, and the implications of Trump's win for the next four years.

Trump's Electoral Victory

Andrew Prokop provides an analysis of Trump's unexpected success in the 2024 election. He states,

"Four years after Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 presidential election and left office in disgrace, the American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office" (02:26).

Prokop attributes Trump's victory primarily to the unpopularity of incumbent President Joe Biden, citing Biden's persistent approval rating hovering around 38% (03:05). Despite attempts by Democrats to rejuvenate their campaign through younger leadership like Kamala Harris, the electorate's dissatisfaction with the current administration prevailed.

Why Did Trump Win?

Prokop elaborates that the election outcome was less about the candidates themselves and more about voters' discontent with Biden's presidency. He points out that Harris, despite outperforming expectations given Biden's low approval ratings, couldn't overcome the significant voter anger inherited from the Democratic administration.

He critiques Harris's campaign strategy, noting:

"She chose not to [acknowledge Biden's shortcomings]." (05:32).

This strategic decision, according to Prokop, failed to resonate with voters who were dissatisfied with the status quo.

Demographic Shifts and Political Realignments

When questioned about demographic changes influencing the election, Prokop remains cautious:

"Almost all analysis... is based on the exit polls, which past experience has shown are highly unreliable" (06:48).

Instead, he emphasizes a widespread national shift against Democrats across various demographics rather than isolated changes.

Trump's Campaign Strategy and Voter Sentiment

Despite a seemingly chaotic campaign, Prokop highlights that Trump's team managed to stabilize and capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. Trump's ability to distance himself from contentious issues like abortion, which could have alienated moderate voters, was pivotal. He remarks:

"Trying to steal the election and being indicted four times proved to matter much less than voters dissatisfaction with the current state of the country and wanting things to be different." (09:11).

Legal Challenges and Trump's Future

Prokop discusses the legal battles Trump faces post-election:

"The federal cases against Trump are going to go away for sure... it's unlikely that he will serve that sentence anytime soon given that he's going to be the president." (10:36).

He concludes that Trump's numerous indictments and attempts to indict him did not significantly impact voter perception.

Shelby Talcott on Trump's Inauguration and Promises

Shelby Talcott provides firsthand insights from the Trump campaign's post-election environment in West Palm Beach. She observes that the campaign was "cautiously optimistic," gradually gaining confidence as election data pointed towards a decisive victory.

Trump's Statements and Public Perception

During his victory speech, Trump expressed immense confidence in his political movement:

"I believe, the greatest political movement of all time... beyond." (17:43).

He also delved into topics like immigration and made a notable, albeit puzzling, remark about Elon Musk's rocket:

"We've never made a paint that could withstand that kind of heat." (18:13).

This comment, though seemingly off-topic, underscores Trump's tendency to veer into unexpected tangents during speeches.

Economic Policies Post-Election

Talcott discusses Trump's immediate economic promises, including the implementation of tariffs:

"Critics say your tariffs will end up being like a national sales tax... That is going to push up the cost for all those people who want to buy foreign goods." (18:58).

Trump counters this criticism by asserting the benefits of such economic measures, though experts warn of potential short-term cost increases for consumers.

Additionally, Trump aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts and lower the corporate tax rate to 15% for certain companies. These policies are central to his economic agenda but may face significant opposition in Congress.

Immigration Reforms

Trump has pledged a robust crackdown on immigration, promising the "largest deportation operation in the history of the United States":

"We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States." (21:07).

While his campaign emphasizes targeting individuals with criminal records, experts caution about the logistical and legal challenges such measures entail.

Government Restructuring and Project 2025

Talcott addresses Trump's plans to shrink the federal government, referencing Project 2025—a strategic blueprint by the Heritage Foundation aimed at overhauling federal institutions:

"She sort of holds a grudge against Project 2025... there's a ban on anyone who was affiliated in any way with Project 2025." (22:18).

Trump's intentions include reviving aspects of Project 2025 despite previous distancing from it during his campaign. Key focuses include:

• Implementing Schedule F to strip civil service protections for federal workers.
• Potentially dissolving the Department of Education and devolving its responsibilities to states.
• Reducing the size and scope of various federal agencies to promote efficiency and loyalty within the administration.

Implications for the Next Four Years

Talcott underscores that Trump's campaign this time was more organized and experienced compared to his previous runs. The inclusion of seasoned advisors like Stephen Miller, known for his hardline stance on immigration, suggests a readiness to navigate the complexities of implementing Trump's policy agenda.

She posits:

"Donald Trump certainly did go off script and complicate things for his campaign aides, but he had more experienced people this time around." (25:00).

This preparedness may enhance Trump's ability to enact his proposals despite potential legislative hurdles and opposition.

Conclusion

The "Trump Country" episode of Today, Explained offers a comprehensive analysis of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential victory, dissecting the multifaceted reasons behind his win and what it portends for the future of American politics. Through expert insights and detailed reporting, the episode paints a nuanced picture of a nation grappling with political polarization, economic concerns, and shifting social dynamics.

Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Prokop (02:26): "The American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office."

• Andrew Prokop (05:32): "She chose not to [acknowledge Biden's shortcomings]."

• Shelby Talcott (17:43): "I believe, the greatest political movement of all time... beyond."

• Donald Trump (21:07): "We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States."

Note: Timestamps in parentheses reference the approximate time within the podcast where the quote or information was discussed.