Trump country

Summary

Today, Explained: "Trump Country" Episode Summary

Episode Title: Trump Country
Release Date: November 6, 2024
Hosts: Sean Rameswaram and Noelle King
Guest Contributors: Andrew Prokop (Senior Political Correspondent, Vox) and Shelby Talcott (Reporter, Semaphore)

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Introduction

In the "Trump Country" episode of Today, Explained, Vox hosts Sean Rameswaram and Noelle King delve into the recent presidential election where Donald J. Trump secured another term in office. The discussion navigates through the factors contributing to Trump's victory, the shortcomings of the Democratic campaign, and the implications of Trump's win for the next four years.

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Trump's Electoral Victory

Andrew Prokop provides an analysis of Trump's unexpected success in the 2024 election. He states,

"Four years after Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 presidential election and left office in disgrace, the American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office" (02:26).

Prokop attributes Trump's victory primarily to the unpopularity of incumbent President Joe Biden, citing Biden's persistent approval rating hovering around 38% (03:05). Despite attempts by Democrats to rejuvenate their campaign through younger leadership like Kamala Harris, the electorate's dissatisfaction with the current administration prevailed.

Why Did Trump Win?

Prokop elaborates that the election outcome was less about the candidates themselves and more about voters' discontent with Biden's presidency. He points out that Harris, despite outperforming expectations given Biden's low approval ratings, couldn't overcome the significant voter anger inherited from the Democratic administration.

He critiques Harris's campaign strategy, noting:

"She chose not to [acknowledge Biden's shortcomings]." (05:32).

This strategic decision, according to Prokop, failed to resonate with voters who were dissatisfied with the status quo.

Demographic Shifts and Political Realignments

When questioned about demographic changes influencing the election, Prokop remains cautious:

"Almost all analysis... is based on the exit polls, which past experience has shown are highly unreliable" (06:48).

Instead, he emphasizes a widespread national shift against Democrats across various demographics rather than isolated changes.

Trump's Campaign Strategy and Voter Sentiment

Despite a seemingly chaotic campaign, Prokop highlights that Trump's team managed to stabilize and capitalize on voter dissatisfaction. Trump's ability to distance himself from contentious issues like abortion, which could have alienated moderate voters, was pivotal. He remarks:

"Trying to steal the election and being indicted four times proved to matter much less than voters dissatisfaction with the current state of the country and wanting things to be different." (09:11).

Legal Challenges and Trump's Future

Prokop discusses the legal battles Trump faces post-election:

"The federal cases against Trump are going to go away for sure... it's unlikely that he will serve that sentence anytime soon given that he's going to be the president." (10:36).

He concludes that Trump's numerous indictments and attempts to indict him did not significantly impact voter perception.

Shelby Talcott on Trump's Inauguration and Promises

Shelby Talcott provides firsthand insights from the Trump campaign's post-election environment in West Palm Beach. She observes that the campaign was "cautiously optimistic," gradually gaining confidence as election data pointed towards a decisive victory.

Trump's Statements and Public Perception

During his victory speech, Trump expressed immense confidence in his political movement:

"I believe, the greatest political movement of all time... beyond." (17:43).

He also delved into topics like immigration and made a notable, albeit puzzling, remark about Elon Musk's rocket:

"We've never made a paint that could withstand that kind of heat." (18:13).

This comment, though seemingly off-topic, underscores Trump's tendency to veer into unexpected tangents during speeches.

Economic Policies Post-Election

Talcott discusses Trump's immediate economic promises, including the implementation of tariffs:

"Critics say your tariffs will end up being like a national sales tax... That is going to push up the cost for all those people who want to buy foreign goods." (18:58).

Trump counters this criticism by asserting the benefits of such economic measures, though experts warn of potential short-term cost increases for consumers.

Additionally, Trump aims to extend the 2017 tax cuts and lower the corporate tax rate to 15% for certain companies. These policies are central to his economic agenda but may face significant opposition in Congress.

Immigration Reforms

Trump has pledged a robust crackdown on immigration, promising the "largest deportation operation in the history of the United States":

"We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States." (21:07).

While his campaign emphasizes targeting individuals with criminal records, experts caution about the logistical and legal challenges such measures entail.

Government Restructuring and Project 2025

Talcott addresses Trump's plans to shrink the federal government, referencing Project 2025—a strategic blueprint by the Heritage Foundation aimed at overhauling federal institutions:

"She sort of holds a grudge against Project 2025... there's a ban on anyone who was affiliated in any way with Project 2025." (22:18).

Trump's intentions include reviving aspects of Project 2025 despite previous distancing from it during his campaign. Key focuses include:

• Implementing Schedule F to strip civil service protections for federal workers.
• Potentially dissolving the Department of Education and devolving its responsibilities to states.
• Reducing the size and scope of various federal agencies to promote efficiency and loyalty within the administration.

Implications for the Next Four Years

Talcott underscores that Trump's campaign this time was more organized and experienced compared to his previous runs. The inclusion of seasoned advisors like Stephen Miller, known for his hardline stance on immigration, suggests a readiness to navigate the complexities of implementing Trump's policy agenda.

She posits:

"Donald Trump certainly did go off script and complicate things for his campaign aides, but he had more experienced people this time around." (25:00).

This preparedness may enhance Trump's ability to enact his proposals despite potential legislative hurdles and opposition.

Conclusion

The "Trump Country" episode of Today, Explained offers a comprehensive analysis of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential victory, dissecting the multifaceted reasons behind his win and what it portends for the future of American politics. Through expert insights and detailed reporting, the episode paints a nuanced picture of a nation grappling with political polarization, economic concerns, and shifting social dynamics.

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Notable Quotes:

• Andrew Prokop (02:26): "The American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office."

• Andrew Prokop (05:32): "She chose not to [acknowledge Biden's shortcomings]."

• Shelby Talcott (17:43): "I believe, the greatest political movement of all time... beyond."

• Donald Trump (21:07): "We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States."

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Note: Timestamps in parentheses reference the approximate time within the podcast where the quote or information was discussed.

Transcript

[Sean Ramaswamy]

The very first thing Vox published this year was an article titled 24 Things We Think Will Happen in 2024.

[Noelle King]

And the very first prediction in that article was that Donald J. Trump would win the presidency.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

We asked Dylan Matthews, who wrote that prescient blurb about his hunch this morning. Biden was incredibly unpopular. People seemed really mad about inflation, and that seemed to have sort of a lagging, enduring effect that was lasting into the election year.

[Noelle King]

Now, a lot happened over the next 11 months, a lot more than even Dhillon predicted. But in the end he was right, at least about Trump.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

The other thing I got wrong was that I underestimated how many cybertrucks would sell. So I think one of my takeaways is that I bet against Elon Musk and lost. And I'm going to be thinking about that for a while. Guess there's no accounting for taste.

[Noelle King]

There sure isn't. How Trump won and what Comes next on Today Explained.

[Claire White]

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[Sean Ramaswamy]

Today, explained Sean Rameshoorm here with Andrew Prokop, senior political [e-mail] who's here to tell us what happened last night and this morning. Andrew, what happened last night and this morning?

[Andrew Prokop]

Well, four years after Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 presidential election and left office in disgrace, the American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

And why did the American people choose that?

[Andrew Prokop]

That is a debate that is going to be very heated over the coming days and weeks and months and years. But my viewpoint is that this election was not so much about either of the candidates on the ticket and more about President Joe Biden.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

Come on, man.

[Andrew Prokop]

Biden is, simply put, one of the most unpopular presidents in history, and he has been for some time. His approval rating, last I checked, was somewhere around 38%. And again, it's been there for some time. And, you know, I think there was a hope among Democrats this year that Biden's bad approval was just because he was old or just because of his vibes, and that if they put in a younger, newer face, then they wouldn't have problems with the electorate, with the public, that they would win. In her defense, Kamala Harris came a lot closer to winning than we would expect, traditionally, given Joe Biden's horrible approval ratings as the incumbent. But she did not get all the way there. And my belief is that she simply had too high a hill to climb, given the voter anger at Biden and Democrats that she inherited. So when Kamala Harris unexpectedly became the Democratic presidential nominee in July, she immediately had to grapple with the question of how her campaign would handle the fact that she is Joe Biden's vice president and that voters really don't like Joe Biden. Some expected her to perhaps break with Biden and the Biden administration in some way, say that mistakes were made, make a pretty clear argument for how she would do things differently on policy. She chose not to do that.

[Claire White]

Basically, Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished experience, experienced and capable in every way that anyone would want if they're president.

[Shelby Talcott]

You never saw anything.

[Andrew Prokop]

And she chose to argue that, you know, when the economy came up, she argued that, you know, the economy is doing great.

[Claire White]

What we have done is clean up Donald Trump's mess. What we have done and what I intend to do is build on what we know are the aspirations and the hopes of the American people. But I'm going to tell you all.

[Andrew Prokop]

In this debate tonight, immigration came up and voter anger about the situation at the border. She would say, well, that's all Republicans fault for not passing the immigration reform bill.

[Claire White]

But you know what happened to that bill? Donald Trump got on the phone, called up some folks in Congress and said, kill the bill. And you know why? Because he'd prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.

[Andrew Prokop]

What she didn't say was, I hear people are unhappy with certain things that the Biden administration did. I accept that, and I would do things differently in these specific ways. Now, there are understandable reasons why she might not have done that. I'm sure they considered doing this. I'm sure they tested it. Perhaps they ultimately thought that, you know, making Any admission of flaws hurt more than it helped. And so I'm not second guessing the political calculation there, but I am pointing out that it did not work.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

There's a lot of people talking this morning about some serious demographic shifts, realignments. How much are you thinking about that?

[Andrew Prokop]

I think it's too early to say. Almost all analysis purporting to know how different age groups or gender groups or racial or ethnic groups shifted is based on the exit polls, which past experience has shown are highly unreliable and unlikely to match what actually happened. The more rigorous and reliable analyses take more time. So in the absence of evidence, I kind of default to the idea of, you know, rather than, like, demographic number crunching, what happened more is a broad national shift against Democrats that we can see among many different demographics and types of voters. That shift may have been more intense among certain demographics, but this is not something that only happened in a few places. This was pretty widespread.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

Okay. We've covered how Harris lost the race, even how Biden lost the race. How did Trump win the race? Because it seemed like his campaign was rather messy.

[Andrew Prokop]

Well, I think the political conventional wisdom all throughout this race has been that Trump had a good hand given voters dissatisfaction with Joe Biden and his record, particularly on key issues like inflation, immigration, and foreign policy. But I think one important thing that Trump did do is that he really tried to wriggle away from the abortion issue. He saw and understood that the Dobbs decision was a problem for Republicans in 2022. Basically at a time when Republican pro life groups were feeling flush with victory and urging Republicans to go further, perhaps passing a national abortion ban. Trump did not want anything to do with that.

[Donald Trump]

My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both, and whatever they decide must be the law of the land, in this case the law of the state.

[Andrew Prokop]

He was cautious about the abortion issue and wanted to make sure that it didn't sink his campaign, which in the end, it didn't. And, you know, it may be selective memory to think back about the Trump years and how crazy they were and be like, well, there was this Trump nostalgia that sort of came up that, like, well, at least we didn't have inflation. Well, at least, you know, the border problem wasn't so bad, or, well, we didn't have these, like, horrible foreign wars in Ukraine and in Gaza. And of course, you can't really fairly blame Biden for all of that, but the idea that. And also a sort of retrospective forgetting of the pandemic, the idea that things were better in the 27 to 2019 years of the Trump era and that if he returned and that the pandemic wasn't really his fault and that if he return to power we could get back to those years. I think that was a powerful advantage that he had in this race. And in the end, you know, trying to steal the election and being indicted four times proved to matter much less than voters dissatisfaction with the current state of the country and wanting things to be different.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

What happens to all that stuff, Andrew? I know you've reported on it.

[Andrew Prokop]

Well, the federal cases against Trump are going to go away for sure. He's made that very clear. He'll put someone in at the Justice Department who will just close those down and drop those prosecutions. He's still set for sentencing in the New York State case where he was actually convicted. But consider it unlikely that he will serve that sentence anytime soon given that he's going to be the president. And the Georgia case has been bogged down and procedural issues for some time. So yes, the big effort to indict Trump four times and hold him accountable and disqualify him in voters eyes from holding office again has turned out to be a complete failure.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

A lot of people are happy today, Andrew. A lot of people are despondent. A lot of people are just staring off into the distance wondering what the next four years are gonna look like. What kind of mandate does Donald Trump have to govern this country for the next four years?

[Andrew Prokop]

I don't really believe in the concept of a mandate, but he won the popular vote so he can point to that. Republicans will have the Senate. The House is not clear yet. We'll take some time to figure that out. But that will obviously play a big role in whether Trump can has a free hand to pass his agenda. But yeah, he'll be able to confirm his appointees. He had his best presidential election performance of three runs. He can fairly claim that he won the argument that the American people, more of the American people were convinced that he would be a better president than Kamala Harris would. And now we will see what that will bring us.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

Andrew Prokop Vox.com, a great place to read about, oh, the next four years of Donald Trump, I guess.

[Noelle King]

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[Noelle King]

It's today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Shelby Talcott covered the Trump campaign for Semaphore. And Shelby, you were with President Elect Trump and his team in West Palm beach last night. What was that like?

[Shelby Talcott]

Yeah, the campaign last night went into this sort of cautiously optimistic. And actually, in fact, the data was so good for them and the polling was so good for them compared to prior elections that some of them were a little bit paranoid because they hadn't dealt with being in such a good position compared to 2020 and 2016. So they were double checking the data, but they were going in feeling pretty good. And as the night went on and the data started rolling in, I was hearing from campaign aides who were with Donald Trump at Mar a Lago, and they quickly became much more confident because it seemed like all the numbers were going more for them than they were for Kamala Harris.

[Noelle King]

When Trump spoke last night, what did you hear?

[Shelby Talcott]

Donald Trump sort of, I think in a way he was almost surprised that it was such a decisive victory. And he took the stage with a number of campaign aides and with his family, and he spent some time thanking everybody. And he said that, frankly, this was.

[Donald Trump]

I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There's ever been anything like this in this country and maybe beyond.

[Shelby Talcott]

And he talked a little bit about immigration, which is, you know, a key topic we've heard him talk about before. He went on sort of a long tangent about Elon Musk.

[Donald Trump]

You know, he sent the rocket up two weeks ago. And I saw that rocket and I saw it coming down. I saw it. It was when it left, it was beautiful, shiny white. When it came down, a few of.

[Shelby Talcott]

Us sort of looked around like, okay, you know, it's 2:00 in the morning, paint job.

[Donald Trump]

He said, we've never made a paint that could withstand that kind of heat.

[Shelby Talcott]

I think in some ways, he maybe wasn't expecting to win by such wide margins.

[Noelle King]

All right, we know that Donald Trump was elected for a couple of reasons. Americans are very unhappy about the economy, inflation, the cost of housing. Let's talk about what Trump has promised to do if elected and what we expect to see. Quickly, what do you think we're going to see on the economy after Trump takes office?

[Shelby Talcott]

Well, one of the big things Trump has promised, of course, is to implement a bunch of tariffs.

[Andrew Prokop]

Critics say your tariffs will end up being like a national sales tax, because the country, if you have America at the moment, has $3 trillion worth of imports. You're going to add tariffs to every single one of them. That is going to push up the cost for all those people who want to buy foreign goods.

[Donald Trump]

What's going on.

[Andrew Prokop]

That is just simple mathematics.

[Donald Trump]

President Trump, it's not. Yeah, it is, but not the way you figure it. I was always very good.

[Shelby Talcott]

That, you know, has a number of potential implications. He argues that it will help because essentially it will threaten some of these other countries and they will, you know, do America's bidding. But when I talk to economists, they say, you know, this could actually make costs rise in the short term. And so that, I think, is something that he's going to try to do right away. I think also, you know, he talked a little bit last night about the makeup of the House and Senate, and that's going to be really crucial in how much he's able to get done. You know, Trump wants to extend all of the tax cuts that he passed in 2017. So that's going to be really big, and I anticipate that that could be, you know, a big fight. Heading in to his office, he also wants to lower the corporate tax rate to 15% for some companies. He's promised a number of rollbacks on taxes, which is, you know, a big reason why some people voted for him. And so that's going to be interesting to see how he, how he can implement all of these tax break that he has promised the American people over the last few months. And so he has promised a wide swath of things that may be difficult to implement, but also will be interesting to see sort of how he implements and the repercussions should he actually be successful in implementing it.

[Noelle King]

Donald Trump has also made big promises on immigration. And the way he's been framing them is kind of like these are day one promises. What should we expect on immigration right out of the gate?

[Shelby Talcott]

You know, he has promised mass deportation.

[Donald Trump]

We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States. Dwight Eisenhower right now has that record.

[Shelby Talcott]

And I've done a lot of reporting on this on sort of what that plan would look like. When I've talked to the Trump campaign, they say they're going to start with those people who have committed crimes, and then there's going to be such a big plan afterwards that it'll essentially make it so difficult for undocumented immigrants to live that a lot of Them will just self deport. Now, I think there's a lot of challenges to that. When I've talked to experts, he'll have a lot of leeway to make political changes compared to the Biden administration. But there's going to be. He's going to face legal hurdles, he's going to face logistical hurdles. And his campaign is aware that this is not going to necessarily be something that they'll just implement with sort of no pushback.

[Noelle King]

You joined us twice on the show to talk about Project 2025. Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 when he was campaigning, but now he has won. What are we expecting there?

[Shelby Talcott]

Yeah, you know, when I talk to Donald Trump's campaign, they sort of hold a grudge against Project 2025 and the people who developed it, which is the Heritage Foundation. And I've actually been told, and I think this reporting matches what others have been told, is that there's sort of a ban on anyone who was affiliated in any way with Project 2025. Now, whether that holds, because listen, Project 2025 and the Heritage foundation, it was a huge project. Right. Thousands of people were involved in some way or another. And so to sort of just mass ban all of those people might be very difficult when you're thinking about having an entire upcoming White House. But there are some grudges because Project 2025, of course, became such a rallying cry for Democrats. And it was successful to an extent.

[Noelle King]

Yes, it was successful. It scared Democrats and it appeared for a time that it was really motivating Democrats. What about Trump's plans to shrink the federal government?

[Shelby Talcott]

Yeah, so Schedule F is obviously something that we've talked about a lot. I think that was one of the first big topics that was brought up when Donald Trump first ran. He wants to essentially, you know, strip civil service protections for a number of career federal workers in positions that normally would be protected from administration to administration. And he wants to sort of bring in a lot more loyalists in his White House. And this is something that he has talked about for years. This is not a new policy to this administration. President Biden actually rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021. So it would have a really big effect on government. He wants to just sort of rehaul everything. He wants to make a lot of things smaller. He also wants to, he's talked about getting rid of certain things. I know the conservatives have talked a lot. And this was in Project 2025 about getting rid of the Department of Education, for example, and sort of bringing it all back to the states. And so there are a lot of proposals that have been floating around for a long time regarding major rehauls to the federal government.

[Noelle King]

What did your time you covered the Trump campaign throughout this season. What did your time covering this campaign tell you about the next four years?

[Shelby Talcott]

You know, I do think that Donald Trump's campaign this time around has been one of the more organized campaigns that he's run. Now is that saying that it was the most organized campaign or that you did not have the candidate going off of going off script and complicating things for his campaign aides? No, he, Donald Trump certainly did that. But I think the biggest thing is that he had more experienced people this time around who have been there, done that. And I think that that sort of is representative of how he could approach the next four years is when he got into office in 2016, he surrounded himself with a lot of people who weren't necessarily experienced in all of this. Now you have people potentially returning like Stephen Miller, who is big on the immigration stuff, who has been here for years. They know what the legal arguments are going to look like. They're ready to fight. They are more prepared to find ways to implement Donald Trump's plan that they weren't in his first term.

[Noelle King]

That was Semaphore's Shelby Talcott covering the Trump campaign.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

Today's show was produced by Amanda Llewellyn and Miles Bryan with help from Avishai Artsy, Victoria Chamberlain and Eliza Dennis.

[Noelle King]

It was edited by Aminah El Saadi with an assist from Matthew Collette and it was fact checked by Laura Bullard.

[Sean Ramaswamy]

We were mixed and mastered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers. And most important of all, Gulielmo King is our mascot. He sat with us all night.

[Noelle King]

For Sean Ramasfuram, I'm Noelle King. This is Today Explained.

[Unknown]

Support for this podcast comes from Stripe. Stripe is a payments and billing platform supporting millions of businesses around the world including companies like uber, BMW and DoorDash. Stripe has helped countless startups and established companies alike reach their growth targets, make progress on their missions and reach more customers globally. The platform offers a suite of specialized features and tools to fast track growth like Stripe Billing, which makes it easy to handle subscription based charges, invoicing and all recurring revenue management needs. You can learn how Stripe helps companies of all sizes make [e-mail] that's stripe.com to learn more stripe make progress.