Today, Explained – “Trump has lost the Iran war hawks”

Date: March 28, 2026
Guests: Ambassador John Bolton
Host: [Not explicitly stated in transcript, likely Sean Rameswaram/Noel King]
Podcast: Today, Explained by Vox

Overview

This episode of Today, Explained examines the rift between Donald Trump and one of the most notorious Iran “war hawks” in American politics, Ambassador John Bolton. Renowned for his advocacy of regime change in Iran, Bolton has become an outspoken critic of Trump’s 2026 war in Iran, arguing that Trump’s approach is strategically inept and could ultimately empower the Iranian regime rather than topple it. The conversation explores how and why Trump lost the support of figures like Bolton, the failures of the administration’s planning, and larger implications for U.S. foreign policy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Bolton’s Credentials and Perspective on Iran

• Bolton recounts his decades of service under four presidents, emphasizing his role as Trump’s first-term National Security Advisor and his long-standing position as a proponent for regime change in Iran.

  “Well, I’ve had the privilege to serve in a number of senior U.S. government officials going back to the Reagan and first Bush administration…” – Bolton [01:24]

• Describes the Iranian regime as irredeemable:

  “It’s not going to give up its pursuit of nuclear weapons… and it’s not going to give up on its pursuit of terrorism.” – Bolton [02:15]

2. Critique of Trump’s War Planning

• Bolton asserts Trump failed on three fronts:
  • No effort to prepare the American public:

    “Normally, when a president is going to take a dramatic action… you explain that to the American people.” [02:47]

  • No congressional preparation:

    “…prepare Congress…on the Republican side…on the Democratic side too…” [04:00]

  • No consultation with allies:

    “You try and build an international coalition before the war starts, not after.” [04:25]

  • No preparation with Iranian opposition:

    “As far as we can tell, he did no preparation of the opposition actually inside Iran. No coordination, no effort to see what they would do…” [05:12]

3. Why Now? Trump’s Motives Remain Opaque

• Bolton expresses confusion at Trump’s policy reversal:

  “Honestly, I don’t have the slightest idea why he changed his mind from the position he took in the first term.” [06:30]

• Host speculates Trump may have underestimated the unique complexities of Iran compared to other regime-change efforts:

  “My working theory is that Trump got a little trigger happy after Venezuela and has ignored the different context…” [06:06]

4. Failure to Anticipate and Respond to Retaliation

• Bolton insists that the risk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation was obvious and discussed:

  “Absolutely. I mean, really, you can’t miss it... obviously, it’s, if, you know, if you look at geography, it’s obvious...” [07:52]

• Criticizes the administration for being slow to act on this front:

  “My only surprise, really, is that they didn’t act earlier against the possibility of the closure the Strait of Hormuz…” [08:24]

5. Lack of Clear Objectives and Strategy

• Bolton says the administration offered shifting objectives and lacked a true endgame:

  “They’ve given a half a dozen or more different alternative objectives, and I’m not sure which is which on a given day…” [09:21]

• Warns of an even stronger, embittered regime if the campaign falls short:

  “That in a sense could make a more dangerous regime by rebuilding what’s left of it…” [09:41]

6. Internal vs. External Regime Change

• Emphasizes that only a popular uprising could change the regime, but mass protests are unlikely after state violence:

  “It’s clear they were badly intimidated in January when the regime killed 30 or 40,000 protesters…” [10:56]

• Stresses the necessity of working with internal opposition, contacts, and defectors for regime change to be feasible [10:56].

7. Trump’s “Pause” in Strikes and Messaging Manipulations

• Bolton casts doubt on announcements of dialogue with Iran:

  “Credibility on either side of that discussion isn’t very high…” [12:48]

• Suggests possible market manipulation factors:

  “Well, that thought had occurred to me. He’s done this sort of thing at other times…” [13:34]

8. Collapse of U.S. Decision-Making Process

• Argues that elimination of the National Security Council process led to the lack of strategy and coherence:

  “One thing that Trump has done in the second term is all but eliminate the National Security Council decision making process…” [14:30]

• Points out centralization of power in individuals unfit to manage both diplomatic and security portfolios:

  “Making Marco Rubio both Secretary of State and National Security adviser is another piece of evidence there…” [16:03]

9. Bolton’s Personal and Political Fallout with Trump

• Explains why he ultimately judged Trump “unfit” for the presidency:

  “He wanted people who basically would say, yes, sir, when he came up with an idea…” [17:27]

• Defends his abstention from endorsing Kamala Harris, despite Trump’s chaos:

  “I just didn’t think that either one of them met the standard I thought was appropriate…” [18:32]

• Reflects on whether he underestimated how much process would break down in a Trump second term:

  “I didn’t foresee that things would be so chaotic in the national security space.” [18:59]

10. Assessing the Possibility and Morality of Regime Change

• Host challenges Bolton: What if regime change simply isn’t possible or desirable for Iranians?
• Bolton replies that intimidation after mass killings has stymied protest, and the real opportunity would come from fractures at the regime’s top, not the street:

  “That has an intimidating effect, as you can imagine… what they should be doing is working on pulling the regime apart at the top…” [19:43]

11. On the War’s Endgame and Public Support

• Trump may be looking for an “off ramp” and could “declare victory contrary to reality”:

  “For Trump, it almost doesn’t matter. He’s capable of declaring victory. Contrary to reality.” [21:23]

• Lack of public approval (“at least 60% of American people opposed this war”) reflects failure of basic political process:

  “…if you’re going to undertake something that’s difficult, risky, dangerous, you need to go to the people and convince them.” [24:39]

12. Has the Campaign Achieved Regime Change?

• Despite claims of leadership decapitation, Bolton sees little sign of genuine regime change:

  “Just this morning, there’s a report that the regime has selected a new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council … probably even more hardlined…” [25:56]

• Summarizes the core failure:

  “If you are gonna go after the goal of regime change, you have to know what you’re getting into and be resolved to work your way through it in order to achieve it. And if you don’t think you can achieve it, then don’t start it.” [26:55]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bolton’s Candid Confusion:

  “Honestly, I don’t have the slightest idea why he changed his mind from the position he took in the first term… I’m as at a loss for an explanation as anybody.” [06:30]

• On U.S. Decision-making Under Trump:

  “If a President just sits around in what they used to call a bog set, bunch of guys sitting around talking and makes decisions on the fly, then you risk making decisions that had ramifications that nobody thought through because there was never a process to do that.” [15:25]

• On Public Opinion:

  “…it’s just good politics to work to make sure that you go into a conflict in as strong a position domestically as you can. Because until you achieve victory, you often go through some very difficult times, which I think Trump is now experiencing. And they don’t have to be as hard for him as they’re gonna be because he didn’t do his homework.” [24:39]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:24] Bolton on his credentials and Iran policy views
• [02:15] Explaining rationale for regime change and critique of Trump’s approach
• [06:30] Bolton admits confusion about Trump’s policy reversal
• [07:52] Discussion of retaliatory scenarios and Strait of Hormuz
• [09:21] On lack of strategic objectives in Trump administration
• [10:45] Importance of internal opposition and popular uprising
• [12:48] Bolton reacts to conflicting claims of US-Iran negotiation
• [13:34] On market manipulation and lack of economic planning
• [14:30] The ramifications of gutting the National Security Council
• [16:03] Centralizing foreign policy under Marco Rubio
• [17:27] Bolton explains his personal and professional break with Trump
• [18:32] Defending vote for Mike Pence, eschewing Harris endorsement
• [19:43] On why Iranian public has not yet revolted
• [21:23] Trump’s “victory” narrative and the Strait of Hormuz dilemma
• [25:56] Has regime change been achieved? Bolton’s answer

Conclusion

This episode provides a robust critique of how Trump's approach to the Iran war has lost him even his most ideologically aligned hawks. Ambassador John Bolton, once the figurehead of regime change advocacy, details the administration’s failures in planning, coalition-building, and endgame strategy. The conversation emphasizes the high stakes of strategic process—and the dangerous consequences when it’s absent. Even for those who endorsed intervention, the conduct and outcome of the current war reflect a warning about the hazards of impulsive, unstrategic leadership on the world stage.